15. Games of Chance Robert Snapp
[email protected] Department of Computer Science University of Vermont Robert R. Snapp © 2010, 2013 15. Games of Chance CS 32, Fall 2013 1 / 66 1 A Little History 2 Coin Tossing Pascal’s Triangl Binomial Coefficients 3 The Game of Craps 4 Probability Theory Independence Geometric Series Expected Reward 5 Lotteries Robert R. Snapp © 2010, 2013 15. Games of Chance CS 32, Fall 2013 2 / 66 The History of Games of Chance Games of chance are rooted in divination. 1 In belomancy arrows in a quiver are labeled according to different military options. The first arrow chosen from the quiver, or the one that flew the farthest, indicated the selection. A biblical reference to belomancy occurs in the book of Ezekial 21:21, “He shakes his arrows.” 2 The Korean game of chance, Nyout, is used for divination on the 15th day of the first month of the year (Hargrave, 1930). 3 Labeled yarrow sticks are thrown at random, and read for prophesy according to the Chinese I Ching. 4 Herodotus (The Histories) describes Scythian soothsayers, who spread bundles of sticks on the ground, for divination. 5 Suetonius (Divus Julius, XXXII) asserts that Julius Ceasar uttered “Jacta alea est,” or “The die is cast,” as he crossed the Rubicon in 49 B.C. on his return Rome. 6 Tarot cards, used since the middle ages in Europe for predicting fortunes. 7 Fortune cookies! Robert R. Snapp © 2010, 2013 15. Games of Chance CS 32, Fall 2013 3 / 66 Kleromancy Sheep knucklebones, or astragali, usually land in one of four different positions, which are assigned the values 1, 3, 4, and 6.