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San Francisco Office Www CBRE San Francisco Office www. cbre. com/research Third Quarter 2011 Demand outpaced supply as San Francisco’s office The shifting demand landscape, specifically market continued its aggressive recovery. The City impacting Class B space, has become one of the experienced its third consecutive quarter of positive most notable trends. Over the quarter, 554,285 SF absorption though the amount was roughly half of of vacant Class B space was absorbed market-wide. last quarter’s. Despite this volatility, overall vacancy This accounts for 71% of the total vacant space continued to drop at a significant rate, ending the removed in all property classes. This was in large quarter at 12.5%. Asking rates continued to part due to leases signed by tech tenants such as increase, though at a slower pace than last quarter, AECOM and Yelp. Quick Stats averaging 4.9% market-wide. Unlike other office The high demand for Class B space has narrowed markets which rely primarily on government or the spread between Class A and B asking rates. One financial services, San Francisco’s position as a Change from last year ago there was an average 18% premium for technology hub proved to be its biggest strength over Current Yr. Qtr. Class A space, which dropped to 13% this quarter, the quarter. impacting the way some landlord’s position their Total Vacancy 12.5% The pace of leasing activity slowed slightly, as space in hopes of capturing the prominent demand. Direct Lease Rate $35.98 reflected by the 2 MSF of gross absorption. J.P Some landlords have been “deconstructing to build,” Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Bank of the West and stripping traditional improvements to fit the mold of Net Absorption 287K AECOM stood out as four of the largest transactions “creative” space in high demand by technology Construction 0 of the quarter. The remainder of the top transactions tenants. This initial investment sparked demand for Completions came from the technology sector. Dropbox signed some property owners and helped diversify their The arrows indicate a trend and do not the largest lease for over 85,000 SF at 185 Berry tenant base. represent a positive or negative value for the Street while Bank of the West executed the largest underlying statistic (e.g. Net Absorption could A confluence of domestic and global economic be negative, but still represent a positive renewal at 180 Montgomery Street. Leases continue trend over the time period). events have idimpacted thecapilital markets over the to trend toward more limited concessions. past 90 days resulting in historically low treasury Tenant demand continues to be fueled by the yields. Given that most lenders use the 10-year Hot Topics technology sector. Of the approximately 300 tenants Treasury bill as the benchmark index to price in the market, representing 6 MSF of potential commercial mortgage debt, it’s not surprising that demand, 42% are classified as part of the the combination of a low cost of capital and San • Overall vacancy decreased 100 basis technology sector. In 2007 these companies Francisco’s strong fundamentals led to another points to 12.5% represented only 14% of the total demand, quarter of increased investment activity. During the dttidemonstrating an aggressive increase over thepast quarter the hig hes t price sale was 221 MiMain Stree t • Market-wide net absorption was four years. As technology companies engage in a which sold to Beacon Capital Partners from the positive 287,408 SF war for talent, many are incorporating a San Booth family. San Francisco’s office market continues • Overall average asking rates Francisco location into their growth strategy to attract to be attractive to landlords and tenants alike. increased 4.9% to $35.98 FSG and retain the young, educated workforce. • Overall Class A average asking rates 12.5% Total Vacancy vs. Net Absorption Total Vacancy increased 3.2% to $38.47 FSG Net Absorption 287,408 2, 000K 20% 1,000K 15% 0 10% -1,000K 5% -2,000K 0% Q3'07 Q1'08 Q3'08 Q1'09 Q3'09 Q1'10 Q3'10 Q1'11 Q3'11 © 2011, CBRE, Inc. MarketView Market Statistics Net Total Total Rentable Vacancy Availability Avg. Direct Asking Rate* Q3 Net YTD Net San Submarket Area % % Class A Class B Class C Absorption Absorption Francisco Office Financial District 27,161,379 12.0% 15.4% $38.00 $34.00 $26.00 168,317 460,346 South Financial District 21,262,790 9.4% 13.3% $38.00 $35.00 $25.50 (214,621) 292,656 North Waterfront & Jackson Square 4,961,260 11.4% 14.9% $33.00 $32.00 $29.00 59,234 89,006 Rincon / South Beach 2,721,511 3.6% 6.3% $43.00 $37.00 $28.00 31,256 83,278 Yerba Buena 3,316,424 28.7% 30.5% $37.50 $33.00 $28.00 52,831 92,142 South of Market 2,729,010 21.0% 33.0% $32.00 $28.50 $22.50 50,489 329,007 Multimedia Gulch 3,425,395 6.8% 9.8% $45.00 $43.00 $31.00 (16,761) 8,242 Mission Bay / China Basin 2,503,496 16.9% 25.8% $49.00 N/A N/A 102,299 91,835 Potrero Hill 1,,,863,067 11.1% 19.8% $38.00 $35.00 $31.00 ((, 10,918) ( ()1) Civic Center & Van Ness Corridor 3,065,700 32.3% 32.4% $30.00 $24.00 $20.50 3,773 (39,042) Union Square 3,745,849 8.2% 9.0% $36.50 $32.00 $27.00 61,509 92,895 San Francisco Office Market 76 , 755, 881 12. 5% 16. 3% $38. 47 $33. 49 $26. 50 287 , 408 1500364 1,500,364 * Annual Lease Rate, Full Service Gross U.S. 9.2% California 11.9% Unemployment Rates San Francisco 8.8% 15% Since its peak in March 2010, San Francisco’s unemployment has dropped from 10.1% to 8.8% as of August 2011. Over the quarter 12% unemployment dddropped 20 basis points, whlhilethenumber of unemployed decreased to 40,200, a drop of 700 since June 2011. San 9% Francisco County currently has the third lowest unemployment rate in the state, following Marin and San Mateo County. Statewide, the 6% unemployment rate decreased 20 basis points over the quarter, falling to 11.9%. On the contrary, the national unemployment rate increased by 10 basis points from June 2011 to August 2011, a result of the 3% T lingering economic lull. 2011 hird Quarter 0% Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11 Q2'11 Q3'11 Source: EDD Page 2 © 2011, CBRE, Inc. MarketView Total Vacancy 12.5% Total Vacancy/Availability Availability 16.3% Vacancy decreased for the fifth consecutive quarter, falling 100 basis points to 12.5%. The largest decrease in vacancy was in the Mission Bay/China Basin 25% submarket, dropping 440 basis points to 16.9%. This is largely a result of its small NRA and the Dropbox lease at 185 Berry Street. Only two submarkets experienced San 20% an increase in vacancy, the largest of which was the South Financial District where Francisco Office 15% Deloitte vacated. Total availability decreased slightly, finishing the quarter at 16.3%. Though availability decreased in eight of the eleven submarkets, 231,546 10% SF of available space at 1355 Market Street in the South of Market leveled the overall change in availability. 5% 0% Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11 Q2'11 Q3'11 Class A $38.47 FSG Direct Lease Rates Class B $33.49 FSG Average asking rates increased for the sixth consecutive quarter, ending at $35.98 $50 market-wide. This is a 4.9% increase over last quarter and a 16.3% increase over $40 last year. Driven by high demand, Class B rates increased by the largest percentage of any product type - 9% over the quarter. The spread between Class A and B $30 narrowed, most notably in the CBD. In the last year, the spread from Class A to Class B space inthe ShSouth Financ ia l Distr ict narrowed from 24% to 9%. $20 Multimedia Gulch and Potrero Hill experienced the largest rate increase overall, rising 11.4% to $41.51 and 9.3% to $34.49, respectively. The increase, though $10 less dramatic than last quarter, signifies the continued, albeit cautionary, strength $0 in tenant demand. Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11 Q2'11 Q3'11 Net Absorption Net Absorption 287, 408 SF Although a few large spaces came to market, net absorption remained positive due 1,000K to the healthy amount of leasing activity witnessed this year. The San Francisco market finished the third quarter with 287,408 SF of positive net absorption, contributing to the 1,500,364 SF of positive absorption year-to-date. The Financial 500K District was the strongest performing submarket, posting 168,317 SF of positive activity, followed by Mission Bay/China Basin which posted 102,299 SF of positive absorption. The South Financial District posted significant negative absorption as a 0 result of the space added from Deloitte at 50 Fremont Street.Dropbox executed the largest new lease of the quarter; over 85,000 SF at 185 Berry Street, followed by Ancestry.com’s 56,963 SF lease at 160 King Street. -500K Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11 Q2'11 Q3'11 Construction Completions 2,000K No construction was completed in the quarter and nothing is in the pipeline to be completed until 2012. The pipeline remains strong, however, and a handful of 1,500K renovations remain underway: 188 Spear Street, 1355 Market Street, 888 Brannan Street, 525 Golden Gate Avenue and 875 Stevenson Street to name a few.
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