Outagamie County Public Health School District Report 14, 2020

COVID-19 Case Data for Outagamie County Public Health Jurisdiction

Information provided in this summary includes confirmed COVID-19 cases from 29 - , 2020, unless otherwise indicated, for persons living in Outagamie County Public Health (OCPH) jurisdiction. School district information is organized by the seven public school districts in Outagamie County. This excludes the Appleton Area School District (AASD) and School District of New London. AASD is served by the Appleton Health Department while over 90% of the New London School District population resides in Waupaca County. Additionally, while the Oneida Nation has their own public health jurisdiction, Oneida cases are included in the Seymour data.

Cumulative Data Through 8/12/2020* Testing Metric Value Change from Previous Week Total People Tested: 28396 2063 Positive: 1310 152 Negative: 27086 1911 Cumulative Positive Rate: 4.6% 7 Day Positivity Rate Average: 7.8%

*Cumulative data for all of Outagamie County

OUTAGAMIE COUNTY TOTAL CONFIRMED CASES 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 4/5 5/3 6/7 7/5 8/2 8/9 3/15 3/22 3/29 4/12 4/19 4/26 5/10 5/17 5/24 5/31 6/14 6/21 6/28 7/12 7/19 7/26

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Outagamie County Public Health School District Report August 14, 2020

While new cases continue to vary from day to day, the 14- and 30-day trends are increasing. *These two charts include all cases in Outagamie County

New Positive Cases (Last 14 Days) 35

29 30 28 28 26 25 24 24 25 23 22

20 19 16 16 15 11 11

Positive Case Count 10

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0 30-Jul 31-Jul 1-Aug 2-Aug 3-Aug 4-Aug 5-Aug 6-Aug 7-Aug 8-Aug 9-Aug 10-Aug 11-Aug 12-Aug

POS_NEW Pos New 7 Day Average Linear (Pos New 7 Day Average)

New Positive Cases (Last 30 Days) 50 45 43 40 35 30 30 29 30 28 28 26 26 24 25 24 25 24 25 22 22 22 23 20 19 19 20 18 16 17 16 16

Positive Case Count 15 12 11 11 9 10 10 5 0 1-Aug 2-Aug 3-Aug 4-Aug 5-Aug 6-Aug 7-Aug 8-Aug 9-Aug 14-Jul 15-Jul 16-Jul 17-Jul 18-Jul 19-Jul 20-Jul 21-Jul 22-Jul 23-Jul 24-Jul 25-Jul 26-Jul 27-Jul 28-Jul 29-Jul 30-Jul 31-Jul 10-Aug 11-Aug 12-Aug

POS_NEW Pos New 7 Day Average Linear (Pos New 7 Day Average)

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Outagamie County Public Health School District Report August 14, 2020

Case indicators defined Burden (case rate) and trajectory (case change) indicators are based on confirmed COVID-19 cases. The COVID-19 activity level maps burden and trajectory indicators based on whether the burden status is low, moderate, moderately high, or high and whether trajectory status is significantly shrinking, growing, or have no statistically significant change.

The current Burden for Outagamie County remains HIGH.

Burden status is based on the case rate per 100,000 of residents in the last two weeks. The cutoffs are fairly conservative, but this is appropriate for a highly transmissible virus, where small numbers can multiply rapidly if not properly contained.

Burden Case Rate per 100,000 Low Case rate is less than or equal to 10. Moderate Case rate is greater than 10, but less than or equal to 50. Moderately High Case rate is greater than 50, but less than or equal to 100. High Case rate is greater than 100. Source: https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/local.htm

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Outagamie County Public Health School District Report August 14, 2020

Confirmed Cases in School District Boundaries During the Two Week Period of: to August 11

Case Count for Case Rate School District Burden Population past 2 weeks (per 100,000) Freedom 12 127.4 High 9,421 Hortonville 13 60.8 Moderately High 21,391 Kaukauna 39 141.3 High 27,592 Kimberly 22 93.9 Moderately High 23,436 Little Chute 13 140.6 High 9,245 Seymour 16 120.4 High 13,287 Shiocton 10 240.3 High 4,161 OCPH Jurisdiction 147* 118.2 High 125,211 Wisconsin 11,213 194 High *Includes Appleton addresses not within City of Appleton limits, but not included in the school district count. Includes cases in Bear Creek (Clintonville School District), New London (New London School District is primarily in Waupaca Co) and Wrightstown (Wrightstown School District) in Outagamie County but not in school district count. School district total count =98 cases.

Number of cases needed for each district for each level of burden

Burden Freedom Hortonville Kaukauna Kimberly Low Less than 1 case. Less than 2 cases. Less than 3 cases. Less than 2 cases. Moderate Greater than 1 case, but Greater than 2 cases, but Greater than 3 cases, Greater than 2 cases, but less than or equal to 5 less than or equal to 11 but less than or equal less than or equal to 12 cases. cases. to 14 cases. cases. Mod. Greater than 5 cases, Greater than 11 cases, Greater than 14 cases, Greater than 12 cases, but High but less than or equal to but less than or equal to but less than or equal less than or equal to 23 9 cases. 21 cases. to 28 cases. cases. High Greater than 9 cases. Greater than 21 cases. Greater than 28 cases. Greater than 23 cases.

Burden Little Chute Seymour Shiocton Low Less than 1 case. Less than 1 cases. 0 cases. Moderate Greater than 1 case, but Greater than 1 case, but Greater than 0 cases, but less than or equal to 5 less than or equal to 7 less than or equal to 2 cases. cases. cases. Mod. Greater than 5 cases, Greater than 7 cases, but Greater than 2 cases, but High but less than or equal to less than or equal to 13 less than or equal to 4 9 cases. cases. cases. High Greater than 9 cases. Greater than 13 cases. Greater than 4 cases.

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Outagamie County Public Health School District Report August 14, 2020

Number of Confirmed Cases and Rate per 100,000 by School District Note: Rate is for a specific age group of the population and calculated by dividing the total number of cases for the specific age-group by the total population in that age group. Age-specific rates will be high due to small population. Freedom Hortonville SD* Kaukauna SD Kimberly** Rate per Rate per Rate per Rate per Age Group # of cases # of cases # of cases # of cases 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 <5 0 0.0 0 0.0 1 56.3 0 0.0 5-9 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 10-14 2 258.7 1 66.8 0 0.0 0 0.0 15-19 1 131.1 2 138.8 0 0.0 2 125.7 20-24 0 0.0 1 117.2 4 267.7 0 0.0 25-34 3 386.1 3 136.8 6 173.1 2 90.5 35-44 2 151.1 2 68.2 6 155.8 7 201.0 45-54 2 119.1 0 0.0 6 159.6 3 80.3 55-64 2 170.4 2 67.1 7 174.9 6 200.9 65-74 0 0.0 1 57.3 5 217.3 0 0.0 75-84 0 0.0 1 160.0 2 223.7 2 175.9 85+ 0 0.0 0 0.0 2 314.0 0 0.0 Total 12 0 13 0 39 0 22 0 *Hortonville SD includes Greenville and Grand Chute **Kimberly SD includes Combined Locks Little Chute SD Seymour SD*** Shiocton Age Group # of cases Rate per 100,000 # of cases Rate per 100,000 # of cases Rate per 100,000 <5 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 5-9 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 10-14 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 15-19 0 0.0 4 432.9 1 369.0 20-24 1 138.3 0 0.0 2 813.0 25-34 0 0.0 2 122.9 1 246.9 35-44 3 309.9 0 0.0 0 0.0 45-54 3 269.3 5 254.3 6 807.5 55-64 3 226.4 5 288.4 0 0.0 65-74 2 369.7 0 0.0 0 0.0 75-84 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 85+ 1 1,176.5 0 0.0 0 0.0 Total 13 0 16 0 10 0 ***Seymour SD includes Black Creek, Oneida, & Nichols

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Outagamie County Public Health School District Report August 14, 2020

Age Group Comparison *Data is for Outagamie County Public Health Jurisdiction

Case Count by Age Group by Week (4 Weeks)

Week 23 1 10 10 5 6 11 8 1 4 56

Week 22 1 17 15 20 9 14 8 5 2 91

Week 21 0 9 18 8 18 18 5 8 3 87

Week 20 1 12 15 12 19 15 8 2 3 87

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

<10 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+

Cumulative Cases by Age Group 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

<10 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+

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Outagamie County Public Health School District Report August 14, 2020

Data Limitations The data is pulled from the Wisconsin Electronic Disease Surveillance System (WEDSS), a statewide system for all communicable diseases, managed by the Wisconsin Department of Health Services (DHS). State and county COVID-19 data are reported daily on the DHS website. The county data listed on the DHS website combines City of Appleton and Oneida Nation in their reporting and therefore will not match the data in this report. OCPH jurisdiction does include some Appleton addresses, but their location is not within city limits. Appleton addresses are not included in this report.

Case Counts and Case Rate Usually, the case count alone is less relevant unless the size of the population from which it is derived is known. A case rate is a fraction in which the numerator is the number of people in whom an event occurred during a certain period of time, and the denominator is the total number of people in the population at risk for the same period of time.

For this report, the number of people at risk are the total number of individuals that reside within a school district’s boundaries. Population estimates for each of the seven school districts can be found at the National Center for Education Statistics: https://nces.ed.gov/programs/edge/TableViewer/acsProfile/2018

Using Freedom Area School District as an example, the case rate per 100,000 for the period - is 84.91. During this two-week window, there were 8 confirmed cases among individuals residing in the district. The number of confirmed cases (8) is divided by 9,421, the total population residing within the district’s boundaries. That number is then multiplied by 100,000 to determine the case rate per 100,000 people. Case rates provide a more accurate depiction of the COVID-19 burden on individual districts during a given time frame. Case rates are used as a way to compare to other districts or jurisdictions.

Data Definitions - Low rate of positive tests in a county/state– this means a county/state performs many tests relative to the size of the outbreak. - High positive rate of tests-this suggests that the true number of infections be far higher than the number of confirmed cases. - Case counts are only meaningful if we also know how much testing a county does. Cases are confirmed cases only-those cases that were confirmed by a laboratory test. - Confirmed cases are only a fraction of the number of total cases. The question is: how big of a fraction of the total number of cases are confirmed. This is not known, but we can get an indication by looking at the extent of testing.

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Outagamie County Public Health School District Report August 14, 2020

- How big a fraction of total cases get confirmed depends on how much a country/state/county actually tests. To understand the spread of the disease we need to interpret the number of cases—the epidemic curve-in light of how much testing for COVID-19 the county actually does. - Rolling 7-day average-tests are not always reported daily

Works Cited Max Roser, H. R.-O. (2020, ). Statistics and Research. Retrieved from OurWorldInData.org: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus Utah Department of Health. (n.d.). Retrieved from Utah Department of Health: http://health.utah.gov/opha/IBIShelp/compute_rate2.htm

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