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OGGM’S Calving Parameterization to Variations in Calving Front Width

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OGGM’S Calving Parameterization to Variations in Calving Front Width Master‘s thesis Sensitivity of OGGM’s Calving Parameterization to Variations in Calving Front Width Christopher D. Miele Advisor: Dr. Ben Marzeion University of Akureyri Faculty of Business and Science University Centre of the Westfjords Master of Resource Management: Coastal and Marine Management Ísafjörður, March, 2018 Supervisory Committee Advisor: Dr. Ben Marzeion Reader: Dr. Þorsteinn Þorsteinsson Program Director: Dr. Catherine Chambers Christopher Miele Sensitivity of OGGM’s Calving Parameterization to Variations in Calving Front Width 45 ECTS thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of a Master of Resource Management degree in Coastal and Marine Management at the University Centre of the Westfjords, Suðurgata 12, 400 Ísafjörður, Iceland Degree accredited by the University of Akureyri, Faculty of Business and Science, Borgir, 600 Akureyri, Iceland Copyright © 2018 Christopher Miele All rights reserved Printing: Háskólaprent, Reykjavík, April 2018 Declaration I hereby confirm that I am the sole author of this thesis and it is a product of my own academic research. __________________________________________ Christopher Miele Abstract The Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) may be the first computer model able to simulate glacier dynamics on a global scale, making it a potentially invaluable tool for environmental managers and scientists. In its current stage of development, all glaciers fed through the model are automatically treated as land-terminating, meaning that OGGM ignores all mass loss due to the calving of water-terminating glaciers. Initial attempts to implement a calving mechanism have yielded unrealistically high calving flux and glacier volume output. This study examines the potential of refined calving front measurements to lower this output. 80 calving fronts were manually delineated using ArcticDEM, a database of high-resolution Arctic and Subarctic elevation data, and their widths were used to test the sensitivity of OGGM’s calving flux and glacier volume output to variations in width input. Findings indicated that OGGM’s calving mechanism returns calving flux and volume output which vary negatively with width input in a predictable and uniform way. Because manually- delineated calving fronts were found to be longer, on average, than the default values used by OGGM, output resulting from manual data tended to be smaller, as hoped. However, because of the high rate at which output increases with decreasing calving front width, the relatively few glaciers for which manual width values are smaller than the default values (for example, in glaciers whose termini only partially calve) may still result in an overall increase in calving flux and glacier volume. Table of Contents List of Figures ........................................................................................................... vii List of Tables .............................................................................................................. ix List of Equations and Definitions .............................................................................. x Acknowledgements .................................................................................................... xi 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Preamble ..................................................................................................... 1 1.2 The Open Global Glacier Model ................................................................ 2 1.3 OGGM's calving model .............................................................................. 3 1.4 Goals and research questions ...................................................................... 4 1.5 Constraints on the scope of research questions .......................................... 5 1.6 Calving front delineation of lacustrine glaciers .......................................... 6 1.7 Sensitivity of model output to variations in input ...................................... 7 1.8 Study area ................................................................................................... 7 1.9 Layout ......................................................................................................... 8 2 Theoretical Background ...................................................................................... 11 2.1 Input .......................................................................................................... 11 2.2.1 From outlines to flowlines ........................................................................ 12 2.2.2 Width line construction............................................................................. 13 2.2.3 Mass balance along flowlines ................................................................... 15 2.2.4 Calibration of the mass balance equation ................................................. 16 2.2.5 Ice flux basics ........................................................................................... 18 2.2.6 Deriving ice flux from mass balance ........................................................ 19 2.2.7 Glacier thickness, bed inversion, and glacier volume .............................. 20 2.2.8 Ice dynamics ............................................................................................. 21 2.3 Introducing calving ................................................................................... 22 2.3.1 Recalibration of the mass balance equation.............................................. 23 2.3.2 Influence of lower µ* on mass balance values ......................................... 24 2.3.3 Influence of lower µ* on ice flux ............................................................. 25 2.3.4 Influence on glacier thickness and volume ............................................... 26 2.4 OGGM's iterative calving model .............................................................. 26 2.4.1 Rough sketch of the algorithm .................................................................. 27 2.4.2 Sensitivity of model output to variations in width input .......................... 28 2.5 Calving front width measurements ............................................................... 29 3 Research Methods ............................................................................................... 31 3.1 Manual delineation of calving fronts ........................................................ 32 3.1.1 ArcticDEM ............................................................................................... 32 3.1.2 Selection and processing of ArcticDEM data ........................................... 33 3.1.3 Analysis of ArcticDEM contour maps ..................................................... 34 3.2 An external database of calving front widths ........................................... 37 3.2.1 Supplementary width values ..................................................................... 37 3.2.2 Validation of ArcticDEM delineation ...................................................... 38 3.3 Widths generated by OGGM .................................................................... 39 3.4 Model sensitivity to calving front width input ......................................... 39 3.4.1 Validation of findings ............................................................................... 40 4 Results ................................................................................................................... 41 4.1 Calving front width vs. calving flux ......................................................... 41 4.1.1 Initial observations.................................................................................... 41 4.1.2 Accuracy of Fw in describing model output.............................................. 45 4.1.3 Representation independence of Equation 4.6.......................................... 48 4.1.4 External validation of Equation 4.6 .......................................................... 49 4.2 Calving front width vs. glacier volume .................................................... 51 4.2.1 Initial observations.................................................................................... 51 4.2.2 Accuracy of Vw in describing model output ............................................. 52 4.2.3 Representation independence ................................................................... 55 4.2.4 External validation .................................................................................... 55 4.3 Calving flux vs. glacier volume ................................................................ 56 4.3.1 Initial observations.................................................................................... 57 4.3.2 Accuracy of VF in describing model output ............................................. 58 4.3.3 Representation independence ................................................................... 59 4.3.4 External validation .................................................................................... 59 4.3.5 Final notes on the choice of curves........................................................... 61 5 Discussion ............................................................................................................. 63 5.1 Summary ................................................................................................... 63 5.1.1 Main results .............................................................................................
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