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Traffic Modelling for Our Proposed

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Traffic Modelling for Our Proposed Traffic modelling for our proposed improvements to Edgware Road We have carried out detailed traffic modelling of the proposals for Edgware Road Pedestrian Improvement scheme and the wider area. This allows us to predict what travel impact the proposed changes could have on road users and bus passengers for the busiest times of the day, with results presented for the morning (0800 to 0900) and evening (1700 to 1800) peak hours. Despite the sophistication of our traffic models, all traffic modelling is only ever indicative; it is intended to give an idea of where the impacts of changes in journey choice are most likely to be felt. It assumes that drivers have perfect knowledge of the network and will always choose the quickest route available. Our models aim to represent the busiest times of day predicting journey times during peak hours. The afternoon traffic in the West End area stays at a peak level for many hours, from around noon and into the evening. The pattern of traffic displacement shown for the evening peak hour can therefore be expected to hold true for much of this time. The ONE model, which covers the whole of London within the M25 has been built to cover the average morning and evening peak hour across this vast area. The journey time and traffic flow impacts predicted may be mitigated by factors including motorists changing the timing of their trips away from peak times; using different modes such as public transport including the new Elizabeth Line, walking or cycling, and making journeys to alternative locations or not carrying out journeys at all. We develop a “Base” representation of the network position before any interventions are implemented; in this case the Edgware Road District reflects traffic volumes from 2016/17. To understand the impacts in the future, we assess how London’s roads would operate in 2021, considering population and employment growth, committed developments and other road improvements planned for implementation. These include transformational projects such as the Baker Street Two-Way and Tottenham Court Road Two-Way schemes. Our modelling predicts an overall trend between the present day and 2021 of bus and general traffic journey times increasing. These increases can be attributed to changes in the patterns of traffic demand across the capital, population growth, and the reallocation of road space to more vulnerable road users. We then test how London’s roads would operate in 2021 with the changes proposed as part of the scheme. This allows us to highlight the impacts of the Edgware Road scheme from other changes which are not part of this consultation. This has allowed us to optimise the design and try to minimise the impacts to all road users whilst delivering the safety benefits as part of the scheme. We actively monitor and manage the road network following implementation ensuring impacts are balanced. Walking The proposals along Edgware Road are expected to bring about significant improvements for pedestrians at five junctions between Harrow Road and Marble Arch. Pedestrian wait time for the existing crossing facilities will remain unchanged and will be similar or the same as the new locations. Through our design modelling process we have aimed to keep pedestrian wait times to a minimum taking account of other road users. This allows us to improve the connectivity across and along Edgware Road as the number of pedestrians in the area increases due to the new Elizabeth Line and walking initiatives. A green man pedestrian facility is an illuminated green signal to invite a pedestrian to cross the carriageway when it is safe to do so. New all-round green man facilities at the junction of Praed Street/Edgware Road/Chapel Street will be introduced to allow pedestrians to cross Edgware Road in one movement. There will also be a new pedestrian facility across Chapel Street where there currently are no crossings. At the junction of Sussex Gardens/Edgware Road a new pedestrian crossing facility is proposed across Edgware Road on the northern side of the junction. This will allow pedestrians to cross the carriageway in one movement rather than having to use the facilities to the south. At both of the junctions of Edgware Road /George Street/Kendall Street and Edgware Road/Connaught Street/Upper Berkeley Street, new all-round pedestrian facilities will be introduced to allow pedestrians to cross all arms of the junction. A new green man pedestrian facility is going to be installed at the junction of Edgware Road/Seymour Street. The new facilities will be located on the eastern side of the junction across Seymour Street. The introduction of formalised pedestrian crossings where currently none exist, will improve the area for vulnerable and less able pedestrians. Buses The proposed pedestrian improvements along Edgware Road will have an impact on the operation of the bus network and on bus passenger journeys. Installing additional green man pedestrian facilities means there is less green time available for traffic at all of the junctions on Edgware Road including the side roads. Design refinements have been undertaken through our traffic modelling process to ensure the impact to buses and other road users is as low as possible. To maximise performance for bus services, we are investing in advanced traffic signal technology to allow us to optimise the signal timings to improve or maintain bus performance as much as possible. Journey time changes for a selection of routes can be seen in the accompanying modelling results map. The key routes, including those most significantly impacted, are described in more detail below. Bus routes 6, 16, 98 and 414 between Edgware Road Station and Marble Arch Station In both the morning and evening peaks, these bus routes are predicted to see an increase of up to a minute in journey time travelling northbound along Edgware Road. During the morning peak the southbound direction is also predicted to increase in journey time of between one to two minutes and by up to a minute in the evening peak. Bus routes 7, 23 and 36 between St Mary’s Hospital/Sussex Gardens and Marble Arch In the morning peak, these bus routes are predicted to see an increase in journey time of up to a minute in both directions. In the evening peak there is a neutral impact on these routes heading southbound along Edgware Road however there is a predicted increase of one to two minutes in the northbound direction. The proposed all-round pedestrian crossing at the junction of Edgware Road/Praed Street and the introduction of a straight- across green man pedestrian facility along Edgware Road at the junction of Edgware Road/Sussex Gardens/Old Marylebone Road will increase the delay to these bus routes. Bus Route 18, between Paddington Green Police Station and Lisson Grove In both the morning and evening peaks, there is no predicted change in journey time to bus route 18 in both directions. Bus Routes 27 and 205, between St Mary’s Hospital/Sussex Gardens and Marble Arch In the both the morning and evening peaks, there is no predicted change in journey time to bus routes 27 and 205 in both directions. General traffic The proposed pedestrian improvements along Edgware Road will result in some journey time changes to general traffic. The following comparisons reflect the changes between our proposal and the predicted performance of London’s roads in 2021. In the morning and evening peaks, traffic travelling in both directions along Edgware Road from Marylebone Road to Marble Arch is predicted to see an increase in journey time of up to a minute. In the morning peak, both north and southbound traffic on Edgware Road is predicted to see an increase in journey times of up to a minute, between Marble Arch and Harrow Road. In the evening peak, vehicles travelling southbound from Harrow Road to Marble Arch should experience no notable change in journey time. In both the morning and evening peaks, general traffic travelling southbound between Praed Street and Marble Arch may experience a delay in journey time of up to one minute. In the opposite direction, traffic is predicted to see no change in journey times in both peaks. The proposed all-round pedestrian crossing at the junction of Edgware Road/Praed Street may delay general traffic turning on to Edgware Road. Traffic reassignment General note on traffic assignment modelling TfL uses traffic assignment modelling to illustrate the predicted state of the road network in 2021. The model captures additional network demand, and completed or planned projects across London in the coming years to understand how route choice and traffic volumes may change. Strategic reassignment modelling provides information on the likely redistribution of trips through the network following the implementation of a scheme. This information can inform decision makers on the wider traffic impacts as a result of network interventions and proposals, and facilitate further more detailed modelling. Detailed local and microsimulation models use the estimated change in strategic model traffic flow and vehicular routing to undertake more detailed assessment, such as journey time analysis, design refinement and output generation. A combination of strategic, local and microsimulation modelling is used to assess the network impacts of a scheme and inform design refinements. Strategic models are built as a simplified representation of the real world at a particular moment in time. Consequently traffic reassignment modelling is only ever indicative; it is intended to give an idea of where the impacts of changes in journey time and route choices are most likely to occur on the network. It assumes that all drivers have perfect knowledge of the network and will always choose the quickest route available.
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