commentary

(around 49 per cent), while that of the A Heady Mix: Gujarati Congress and NCP together reduced by about 2 per cent (from about 41 to 39 per and Hindu Pride cent). This should be a cause of worry for the Congress and the NCP with parliamen- tary elections round the corner. A M Shah, Pravin J Patel, Lancy Lobo Erosion of Traditional Vote Banks The results of the December 2007 n the assembly elections of The distribution of seats between the two elections in Gujarat show that December 2007, of the total 182 seats major parties in the various geographical the declining role of tribe and Ithe Bharatiya (BJP) won and social segments of Gujarat shows that 117 – 10 less than it did in the 2002 elec- in this election all the traditional vote caste identities and increasing tions. It got a clear mandate but lost the banks, except the Muslims, became more cultural uniformity due to two-thirds majority it had won in 2002. or less irrelevant. Of the five sub-regions, extensive urbanisation helped The Congress and its ally the Nationalist namely, Kutch, Saurashtra, north Gujarat, hammer Congress Party (NCP) together won 62 seats, central Gujarat, and south Gujarat, there a gain of 11 compared to the previous elec- is no single overwhelming pattern of voting home the ‘Gujarati asmita’ tions. The other parties have the remaining across four sub-regions. The only excep- (Gujarati identity) slogan and three seats. The opposition with 65 seats tion was central Gujarat, where the Con- successfully counter the Congress’ has thus gained a marginal advantage as far gress performed better than in the other charge of communalism. as the assembly proceedings are concerned. sub-regions. It is noteworthy, however, However, this advantage can be effective if that this sub-region was for long a strong- the ruling party does not resort to the tac- hold of the Congress, became a part of the tic of reducing the number of assembly ses- BJP wave in 2002, and is now back with sions as well as their duration. This tactic the Congress. There is also no definite hurts not only the opposition but also the evidence of a difference in the voting MLAs of the ruling party and is on the pattern between the rural and urban whole bad for parliamentary democracy. areas; neither the adivasis nor the dalits Approximately 60 per cent of the elec- have remained overwhelmingly with the This article is based on a discussion held among torate voted and the BJP got around 49 per Congress; and the two dominant castes, a number of social scientists in Vadodara. cent of the total votes polled. Chief minister the Leuva Patels (an upper caste) and The authors would like to thank Priyavadan Narendra Modi’s admirers often hail him Kolis (a middle caste) who were expected Patel, Amit Dholakia and Netika Raval for as ‘hriday samrat’ (emperor of hearts) of to vote overwhelmingly for the Congress participating in the discussion and their critical comments on the draft of the article. the people of Gujarat, while he claims to according to media predictions did not do speak for five and a half crore Gujaratis. so. This trend requires intensive research Lancy Lobo ([email protected]), But this is merely rhetoric. as it indicates changing ground realities. A M Shah and Pravin J Patel are sociologists The share of votes for the BJP has re- At least one important reason for the based in Vadodara. mained more or less the same as in 2002 declining role of tribe and caste identities

Economic & Political Weekly EPW february 23, 2008 19 commentary as seen in these elections is the cultural contextual. There were also signs of the did not neglect these vote banks, it made uniformity that has emerged among castes/ younger generation in the family voting additional efforts to mobilise public tribes due to the processes of industriali­ against the wishes of the older generation, opinion across all strata of society in its sation, commercialisation, urbanisation, a factor that seems to have become more favour, using the modern media of mass sanskritisation and modernisation during significant in recent elections. communication cleverly. the last five or six decades. The idea of On the whole, the wider issues as pro- ‘Gujaratni asmita’ (Gujarat’s identity), jected by political parties in their cam- Election Campaigns which was confined for long to the upper paigns played a greater role in the electoral The style of communication played a much strata of society, has now spread among behaviour this time. Clearly, the urban bigger role in the campaigns in this election almost all sections of society. Secondly, population took the lead in this direction. than in the past. The star campaigners of almost every ethnic group is now highly Its proportion in Gujarat is fast approach- the Congress were mainly from outside differentiated economically, and the dif- ing 50 per cent, and towns and cities, Gujarat: Sonia Gandhi, , ferent economic strata within it seem to be large and small, are evenly distributed Rahul Gandhi, Digvijay Singh, Kapil Sibal, behaving differently in the political arena. all over the state, unlike some other and several others. They addressed large Thirdly, due to the tendency of rival par- states where a large proportion of urban rallies, but none of them could communicate ties to sponsor candidates belonging to population is concentrated in one me- in the Gujarati language. Moreover, Sonia the same ethnic group, the primordial tropolis. In the past, door-to-door can- Gandhi, the prime campaigner of the group gets divided politically. The wide- vassing used to take place in towns, even Congress, spoke with the help of written spread belief that every ethnic group in the middle class neighbourhoods, but notes; this was noticed by the audience, votes en bloc is facile. As a recent book now this is nearly defunct except in slums. and Narendra Modi made fun of it in his [Shah 2007] on electoral behaviour in The modern electronic as well as print speeches repeatedly. On the other hand, the 1960s-1970s has shown, the members media have instead played a more influen- the BJP had practically only one star of a caste even in a village did not always tial role in shaping electoral behaviour campaigner, Modi himself. He spoke vote en bloc then and the practice than in the past. It seems the Congress re- Gujarati using the choicest colloquial words declined further in subsequent decades. lied more on the expected behaviour of and phrases, modulation of voice, and The influence of primordial loyalties was the traditional vote banks. While the BJP appropriate body language. He cultivated

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20 february 23, 2008 EPW Economic & Political Weekly commentary his outward appearance: favouring half- riots by the media, social activists, the not affect all parts of Gujarat equally, and sleeve kurtas, and sporting turbans char- non-governmental organisations (NGOs), some not at all [Lobo and Das 2006]. It acteristic of the caste, tribe and sub-region rival politicians and a number of foreigners was therefore easy for Modi to counter al- of the area where he was campaigning. He too has hurt the Gujarati pride. Modi legations against him in these areas. also engaged his audience in dialogues pumped up this pride by a series of steps: Moreover, neither riots nor terrorist at- and his response to Sonia Gandhi’s well honouring the freedom fighter Shyamji tacks recurred after 2002, and Modi took known and controversial remark, ‘maut Krishna Verma, naming universities after credit for this. For all these reasons, by and ke saudagar’ (merchants of death), was Gujarati literary and philosophical stalwarts large, the electorate did not take kindly to in the form of such a dialogue. He also like Narmad and Hemchandra, taking credit the allegation made by the secularists in campaigned vigorously throughout the for raising the Sardar Sarovar dam height, general and the Congress in particular length and breadth of Gujarat. The only reviving the Saraswati and Sarbarmati that the entire state of Gujarat was prone Gujarati campaigner on the Congress side rivers with the waters from the Narmada, to communal violence; in fact the allega- who could match him to some extent in and celebrating the Gujarati festivals of tion proved to be counterproductive for style was Shankersinh Vaghela, the central uttarayan and navaratri in a big way. the Congress. minister for textiles, but he addressed The Congress itself did not emphasise only a small number of rallies, mainly in Development versus Hindutva the development issue forcefully. Its north and central Gujarat. Modi’s style It is widely speculated that if Sonia Gandhi campaigners rarely mentioned the many appealed enormously to the masses. In had not made the remark, “maut ke new initiatives its government at the fact, it had become a part of his substance, saudagar” (merchants of death) describing centre took for economic and social deve­ often called ‘Moditva’ (Modism). those at the helm of the Gujarat govern- lopment of the country, including Gujarat. Modi constantly used the slogans, ment, and if Digvijay Singh had not called They also did not emphasise the economic ‘Gujaratni asmita’ (Gujarat’s identity) and them, “Hindu terrorists”, Modi would have development that had taken place during ‘garavi Gujarat’ (glorious Gujarat), which highlighted the development record of his the Congress rule in earlier decades, and have been a part of Gujarati literature for government rather than communal issues the enterprise of the people of Gujarat more than a century, and are now system- in his campaign. No one can be sure. It is themselves in agriculture, industry and atically built into the BJP’s political dis- hard to believe, however, that Modi and trade irrespective of the character of the course. There have been several confront­ the BJP would have given up the Hindut- government. On the other hand, Gujarat’s ations between Gujarat and the centre in va agenda in their campaign. public perceived Modi as a strong and ef- the post-independence period, e g, during Modi projected himself as the saviour of ficient administrator who took up many the ‘maha Gujarat ’ (greater Gujarat) move- the Hindus and subtly laced his speeches successful developmental initiatives. ment, and during ’s with anti-Muslim sentiment, especially Modi projected his persona as an ascetic second term as chief minister of Gujarat. the ones addressed to the urban middle who works long hours for the public cause. Now, since the United Progressive Alli- classes. He engaged the Ram Setu issue By and large he has an incorruptible ance (UPA) government came to power at effectively. He also won over the sadhus image. He also projected himself as one the centre, the BJP government in Gujarat and sants, and was often photographed who delivers results; his propaganda was has had confrontations with it too. There and seen in their company. It was widely backed by performance which gained is a popular feeling that there is no reported in the media then that the re- him credibility. He repeatedly said, “Vikas important Gujarati leader at the centre to fusal of the top leaders of the Rashtriya thayo hoy to mane vote aapso, nahi to na protect its interests, and Modi exploited Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), Vishwa Hindu aapso” (if there has been development, this feeling. He also constantly alleged Parishad (VHP) and Bajrang Dal to cam- then only give me votes, otherwise do not). that the centre neglected Gujarat. He pro- paign for the BJP would adversely affect Modi cultivated different segments of jected himself as the person who spoke for the BJP’s prospects. However, this was a Gujarati society differently. He engaged Gujarat and stood up for its people. He deceptive assumption, as most of the local the youth in celebrations and festivities, harped on the Congress Party’s alleged workers of the Sangh parivar continued to and appointed them to posts in universities failure to give Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel work for the victory of the BJP candidates. and other institutions. For instance, he ap- the recognition he deserved for his crucial In any case, the BJP had more effective lo- pointed young persons as vice-chancellors role in national politics, implying that cal organisation of workers in comparison and pro-vice-chancellors, and as members this was the Nehru family’s game. The to the Congress. Even well-meaning peo- of the university senates. For women, he BJP in turn glorified Modi as ‘chhote ple, sympathetic to the Congress, com- initiated several schemes, such as ‘kanya sardar’ (junior sardar). He repeatedly plained that the Congress leaders ap- kelavni’ (girl’s education) and ‘beti bachao’ termed the criticisms against him and his proached the electorate only at the time of (save the daughter). He told the women, government as attacks on the people of elections and forgot it subsequently. “Write a postcard to your brother, who Gujarat – an emotional ploy that earned Although there is a common perception is at , about any of your him rich dividends. that Modi and his government played a grievances”. For the rural masses, he The constant condemnation of Modi and big role in the communal riots of 2002, it arranged ‘khedut yatra’ (farmers’ pilgrim- his government after the 2002 communal is important to recall that these riots did age) to highlight the schemes for supply of

Economic & Political Weekly EPW february 23, 2008 21 commentary electricity and dam water. For the benefit Hindu pride, and any criticism of their few in the private sector, have sharply de- of fishermen, he initiated the ‘sagar-khedu policies and actions is likely to be termed clined due to continuous interference from yojana’ (seafarer scheme). He gave indus- anti-Gujarat as well as anti-Hindu. This does the government and the party in the cru- trialists tax benefits and abolished octroi not augur well for democracy in Gujarat. cial decision-making bodies such as the which pleased the middle class. The BJP’s victory is likely to give a further syndicate and the senate. The space for boost to some of its members in numerous freedom of thought and dissent has al- Implications local institutions to behave in a brazenly ready shrunk and is likely to shrink fur- The political developments in Gujarat authoritarian manner, protected by the ther, which is likely to hamper creativity during the last seven years and the nature ministers and other high level politicians. essential in any art, literature or science. of the election campaign and its results In this context, the social character of the Well wishers of Gujarat will have to be indicate certain trends for the future. First BJP cadres needs to be studied critically constantly vigilant of the behaviour of the of all, the slogan of Gujarati pride is likely and their behaviour watched carefully. men and women governing the state. to become more potent than that of Hindu The election results indicate a continu- References pride in the coming years, and the two ing danger for civil society institutions Lobo, Lancy and Biswaroop Das (eds) (2006): Com- together promise a heady and deadly mix. such as universities, colleges, research in- munal Violence and Minorities: Gujarat Society in A leader, widely perceived as having an stitutes, cooperatives and NGOs, and for Ferment, Rawat, . authoritarian streak and his party have the world of art, literature and science. In Shah, A M (ed) (2007): The Grassroots of Democracy: Field Studies of Indian Elections, Permanent Black, become the arbiter of both Gujarati and particular, all the universities, except a Delhi.

22 february 23, 2008 EPW Economic & Political Weekly