An Environmental and Behavioural Analysis of Arson in a Danish Sample
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An Environmental and Behavioural Analysis of Arson in a Danish Sample Thesis submitted in accordance with the requirements of the University of Liverpool for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy by Charlotte Kappel. July, 2018 i Table of Contents Page Number List of Tables ii List of Appendices ii Abstract 1 Acknowledgements 4 Part 1: Literature Review and Background Chapter One – The Problem of Arson 6 1.1. Introduction: The Problem of Arson 6 1.2. 7 Definition 1.2.1. Fire-setting and Arson 7 1.2.2. Pyromania 8 1.3. Is Arson on the 10 Increase? 1.3.1. Detection and Conviction Rates 11 1.4. Conclusion 13 ii Chapter Two - Previous Research and Theory on Arson 15 2.1. Introduction 15 2.2. Theoretical Approaches 16 2.3. Motivational Aspects of Arson 22 2.4. Demographic and Biographical Characteristics of Arsonists 23 2.4.1. Gender 23 2.4.2. Age 26 2.4.3. Family, Marital, Educational and Occupational 27 Background 2.4.4. Ethnicity 29 2.4.5. Psychiatric History 30 2.4.6. Solo Offending versus Co-offending 31 2.4.7. Serial versus Single Offenders 32 2.5. Geographic Profiling 34 2.5.1. Geographic Profiling: Basic Concepts 34 2.5.2. Journey to the Scene of the Crime 35 2.5.3. Geographic Profiling: Problems and Issues 37 2.6. Conclusion: Investigating Arson from a New Angle 38 Chapter Three - Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design and 41 Defensible Space Theory: Towards a New Approach 3.1. Introduction: An Environmental Approach 41 3.2. CPTED and Defensible Space Theory 42 3.3. Defensible Space Theory 42 3.4. Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design (CPTED) 46 iii 3.4.1. Access Control and Territorial Reinforcement 47 3.4.2. Users of an Environment 50 3.4.3. The Application of CPTED to Environments 51 3.5. Other Influences related to Defensible Space Theory and 52 CPTED 3.5.1 Incivility Theory 52 3.5.2. Population Density and Crowding 54 3.5.3. Urban Versus Rural Crime Rates 56 3.5.4. High Crime versus Low Crime Areas 58 3.6. Environmental and Geographical Patterns of Arson and 59 Accidental Fires: An example 3.7. Conclusion 61 Part 2: The Empirical Work Chapter Four – Introduction to the Empirical Work 63 4.1. Introduction 63 4.2. Summary of Previously Investigated Variables 64 4.3. Research Aims 67 4.4. Hypotheses 68 4.4.1. General Demographic and Biographical 68 Characteristics 4.4.2. Solo versus Group and Single versus Serial 68 Offenders 4.4.3. Offence Related Behavioural Characteristics 69 4.4.4. Environmental Characteristics 69 4.5. Organisation of the Studies 70 iv 4.5.1. Studies 1 and 2 - Demographic and Biographical 70 Characteristics of Arsonists 4.5.2. Studies 3 and 4 – Offence Related Behavioural 70 Characteristics of Arsonists 4.5.3. Study 5 – Predicting Individual Arson Rates from the 71 Offence Related and Demographic and Biographical Variables: Serial Arson Revisited. 4.5.4. Study 6 – Further Environmental Aspects of Arson 71 Chapter Five - Data Collection and Methodological Considerations 72 5.1. Introduction 72 5.2. Data Sources and Collection 72 5.3. Advantages and Limitations of Archival Data 74 5.4. Approach to Statistical Analysis 75 5.4.1. Basic Inferential Tests 76 5.4.2. Multiple Regression 78 5.4.3. Treatment of Multiple Comparisons 82 5.5. Ethical Considerations 83 Chapter Six - Study 1:Demographic and Biographical Characteristics of Arsonists: 84 Gender, Age, Locality and Single versus Serial Offending 6.1. Introduction 84 6.2. Hypotheses 85 6.3. Method 85 6.3.1. Data Samples 85 6.4. Results 86 6.4.1. Preliminary Global Analysis for the Age Data 86 6.4.1.1. Defining Age 86 6.4.1.2. Global ANOVA 88 v 6.4.2. Gender and Age at First Offence 89 6.4.3. Gender and Age of Offenders in Rural and Urban 90 Settings 6.4.4. Gender and Age of Single and Serial Offenders 93 6.4.5. Results: Gender and Age of Single and Serial 95 Offenders in Rural and Urban Areas 6.5. Discussion and Conclusion 97 Chapter Seven - Study 2 – Further Demographic and Biographical Characteristics 104 of Arsonists: Psychiatric and Criminal history, Educational, Domestic and Employment status, Nationality and Ethnicity 7.1. Introduction 104 7.2. Hypotheses 105 7.3. Results 105 7.3.1. Psychiatric History 105 7.3.2. Criminal Record/Previous Convictions 108 7.3.3. Educational and Domestic Status 111 7.3.4. Employment Status 114 7.3.5. Nationality 115 7.3.6. Ethnicity 116 7.3.7. Solo and Group/Co-Offending 117 7.3.8. Targeted Hypothesis: Group/Solo 119 Offenders. 7.3.9. Relationships between other Variables 119 7.4. Discussion and Conclusion 121 7.4.1. Summary Findings: Categorising Arson 125 Chapter Eight - Study 3 – Offence Related Behaviours and Characteristics of 126 Arsonists vi 8.1. Introduction 126 8.2. Research Questions 127 8.3. Coding and Definitions of Offence Related Behaviours 128 8.4. Hypotheses 131 8.5. Results: Targets 132 8.5.1. Residential 133 8.5.2. Business 134 8.5.3. School 134 8.5.4. Public Building 135 8.5.5. Vehicle 136 8.5.6. Miscellaneous 136 8.5.7. Self 137 8.5.8. Own Home 138 8.6. Results: Crime Scene Variables 139 8.6.1. Planned 139 8.6.2. Group/Solo 140 8.6.3. Multiple Fire Sites 141 8.6.4. Multiple Items Fired 142 8.6.5. Accelerant 142 8.6.6. Materials Brought to Crime Scene 143 8.6.7. Alert 144 8.6.8. Remained/Returned to Crime Scene 145 8.6.9. Alcohol Used 146 8.6.10. Travel Distance 147 vii 8.7. Results: Relationship Variables 149 8.8. Discussion 150 8.8.1. Targets 150 8.8.2. Crime Scene Variables 152 8.8.3. Travel Distance 156 8.8.4. Overall Consideration of Variables 157 Chapter Nine - Study 4 – Offence Related Behaviours and Demographic and 161 Biographical Characteristics of Arsonists 9.1. Introduction 161 9.2. Entry of Demographic and Biographical Variables 161 9.3. Hypotheses 162 9.4. Results 163 9.4.1. Target Residential 163 9.4.2. Target Business 163 9.4.3. Target School 164 9.4.4. Target Public Building 164 9.4.5. Target Vehicle 165 9.4.6. Target Miscellaneous 165 9.4.7. Target Self 166 9.4.8. Target Own Home 167 9.4.9. Victim Known 167 9.4.10. Victim Ex-partner 168 9.4.11. Prior Violence Towards Victim 169 9.4.12. Prior Threats Towards Victim 169 9.4.13. Lives Endangered 169 viii 9.4.14. Arson Planned 170 9.4.15. Group/solo/Solo Offending 170 9.4.16. Multiple Items Fired 171 9.4.17. Multiple Sites 172 9.4.18. Accelerant Used 172 9.4.19. Materials Brought 173 9.4.20. Alert During or After Fire 174 9.4.21. Remained at Crime Scene 175 9.4.22. Use of Alcohol During Fire-setting 175 9.4.23. Travel Distance 176 9.5. Discussion 181 9.5.1. Targets 182 9.5.2. Relationship Variables 185 9.5.3. Crime Scene Variables 187 9.5.4. Travel Distance 195 9.5.5. Conclusion 197 Chapter Ten - Study 5 - Predicting Likelihood of Arson Recidivism from the 201 Offence Related and Demographic and Biographical Variables: Serial Arson Revisited 10.1. Introduction: Indicators of Arson Recidivism 201 10.2. Method 203 10.3. Results 204 10.3.1 Demographic and Biographical Variables 204 10.3.2. Offence Related Behavioural Variables 205 10.3.3. Hierarchical Logistic Regression: Combining 207 variables ix 10.3.4. Reduced Model 207 10.4. Discussion and Conclusion 209 Chapter Eleven - Study 6 – Environmental Aspects of Arson 215 11.1. Introduction 215 11.1.1. Background 215 11.1.2. Approach 216 11.2. Hypotheses 217 11.3. Methods 217 11.3.1. Data Collection: Google Earth 217 11.3.2. Creating Units 218 11.3.3. Property Variables 220 11.3.4. The Unit variables 223 11.3.5. Coding of Units /Reliability 226 11.3.6. Criterion Variable: Arson Rates 226 11.4. Results: Property Variables 227 11.5. Results: Units 229 11.6. Discussion and Conclusion 231 11.6.1. Property Variables 231 11.6.2. Unit Variables 232 11.6.3. Conclusion 238 Part 3: General Discussion and Conclusion Chapter Twelve - General Discussion and Conclusion 241 x 12.1. Summary 241 12.1.1. Aims 241 12.1.2. Rationale: Summarising the Results 242 12.1.3. Demographic and Biographical Variables 242 12.1.4. Offence Related Variables 246 12.1.5. Recidivism: Serial Offending Reconsidered 255 12.1.6. Environmental Variables 259 12.2. Limitations and Future Research 265 12.2.1. Practical and Methodological Limitations 265 12.2.2. Future Research 268 12.3. Implications of the Current Research 270 12.3.1. Theoretical Implications 270 12.3.2. Methodological Implications 272 12.3.3. Practical Implications and Applications 276 12.3.3.1. Interpreting the Tables 276 12.3.3.2. Further Implications for Police and Practice 280 12.4. Overall Conclusion 282 References 284 Appendices 336 xi List of Tables Table 6.1. Descriptive statistics by Gender for the three samples 89 Table 6.2. Descriptive statistics by Gender and Urban and Rural Settings. 91 Table 6.3. Descriptive statistics by Gender and Single and Serial Offenders 94 Table 6.4. Descriptive statistics by Gender and Single and Serial Offenders 96 in Urban and Rural Areas Table 7.1.