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SOMALIA CASH and MARKETS QUARTERLY DASHBOARD January - March 2019 Produced on 30Th April 2019

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SOMALIA CASH and MARKETS QUARTERLY DASHBOARD January - March 2019 Produced on 30Th April 2019 SOMALIA CASH AND MARKETS QUARTERLY DASHBOARD January - March 2019 Produced on 30th April 2019 INTRODUCTION ASSESSED MARKETS RECOMMENDED TRANSFER VALUES Cash-based interventions have been used by humanitarian organisations in Somalia since 20031. However significant variations Region Multi-purpose Food transfer have been noted in transfer values, sometimes in the same place by transfer value value (USD) different organisations, with varying justifications. It is in light of this (USD) that the Somalia Cash Working Group (CWG) started convening in Awdal 85 80 February 2017, against a backdrop of an increase in the number of agencies using cash-based interventions to respond to the 2016- W. Galbeed 80 65 2017 drought, with an aim to streamline the design, development Togdheer 80 (70) 70 (60) and implementation of cash based interventions in the country. Sool 105 70 Within this, the CWG provides transfer value recommendations Sanaag 115 70 on a quarterly basis - based on the minimum expenditure basket (MEB) - to humanitarian organisations implementing cash-based Bari 85 80 interventions in Somalia. Nugaal 80 60 This dashboard presents the CWG's transfer value recommendations Mudug 75 70 in addition to an overview of market performance for the period of Galgaduud 100 90 January - March 2019. The primary data sources used are the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU), which provides price Hiraan 65 (60) 50 (45) data, and the World Food Programme (WFP), which provides supply Bakool 70 60 chain and port data. Data from other CWG partners is used on an as-available basis. Bay 45 30 Gedo 70 60 KEY DEVELOPMENTS Banaadir 70 55 • The food MEB exhibited slight changes in the majority of the Middle Shabelle 75 65 regions from January to March 2019. However, notable changes Lower Shabelle 45 35 (30) were recorded in Togdheer at +17%, in Middle Juba at +15%, in Hiraan at +14% and in Lower Shabelle at +12%. This is possibly Middle Juba 50 (45) 35 (30) linked to below average 2018 Deyr (October - December) harvest Lower Juba 90 75 compounded by current dry weather conditions. • Similarly, the full MEB changed only slightly (<10%) in the majority In parentheses are transfer values based on January food and full of the regions from January to March 2019 except in Togdheer, Middle MEB. These should not be applied in implementation. For more Juba and Hiraan where they exhibited notable changes. Possibly information refer to the methodology section. linked to an increase in food MEB, the full MEB changed by +14% in Togdheer and by +11% in both Middle Juba and Hiraan. KEY FIGURES • While the price of main cereals - defined as the cheaper of the two 54 assessed districts preferred cereals in a district - remained relatively stable or changed slightly in the majority of assessed districts from January to March 71 assessed markets 2019, notable changes were recorded in Bu'aale at +34%, in 44 assessed items Jowhar at +28%, in Burco at +20%, in Jilib at +20%, in Qoryorel at +18%, in Marka at +15% and in Baraawe at +11%. This is potentially attributed to reduced supply following below average 2018 Deyr rains. EXCHANGE RATES • Prices of imported commodities (red rice, sugar, vegetable oil and 32,917 24,278 xx wheat flour) remained relatively stable or exhibited small changes in the quarter. USD/SoSh USD/SoSh USD/SlSh -5% 0% -3% • Both the Somali Shilling (SoSh) and the Somaliland Shilling (SlSh) remained generally stable or appreciated by a small margin against Bossaso Mogadishu Hargeisa the United States Dollar (USD) in the quarter. 1 SOMALIA CASH AND MARKETS QUARTERLY DASHBOARD METHODOLOGY MEB CONTENTS FULL MEB FOR THE QUARTER Below is the list of basic food and non-food items taken The CWG uses FSNAU's MEB values as the basis for determining quarter. Region Jan Feb Mar into account when establishing the MEB in the Somalia: transfer value recommendations. As per its decision, transfer values Awdal 105 100 107 should be based on urban MEB rates only. This is because: On this account, in regions where a more than 10% change in either 101 100 107 the food or full MEB was recorded between January and March 2019, Food items Quantity W. Galbeed • Rural MEB rates are not available in all regions; an update recommendation is provided and the previous one is Cereal 90 kg Togdheer 90 98 103 • In some regions, large differences between the rural and urban shown in brackets but should not be applied for implementation. This Sugar 3 kg Sool 129 134 134 rates have been difficult for partners to explain and; is the case for Hiraan, Lower Shabelle, Middle Juba and Togdheer. • The rural-urban divide is not always distinct to partners which opens Vegetable oil 6 ltr Sanaag 141 140 138 the possibility that different rates are applied in the same location. The CWG also determined that transfer value recommendations Cow peas 6 kg Bari 107 107 109 Further, food transfer value recommendations should correspond should remain fixed for three months at a time, and only be subject Non-food items Quantity Nugaal 101 117 104 to 100% of the food MEB of the first month of the quarter under to change if the MEB value in any particular region changes by a Kerosene 1.5 ltr Mudug 95 95 97 consideration, while multi-purpose transfer value recommendations notable value (>10%) following, for instance, an unprecedented Soap (laundry) 4 pcs Galgaduud 124 124 122 should correspond to 80% of the full MEB of the first month of the phenomenon. 75 78 83 quarter under consideration, both rounded to the nearest 5. Firewood varies Hiraan Water 9 drums Bakool 85 85 87 The MEB represents the minimum culturally adjusted set of basic However, if it happens that there is a more than 10% change in the Human drugs SoSh. 20,000 Bay 59 59 62 food MEB between the first and the last month of the quarter under food items (comprising 2,100 kilocalories per person per day of basic School fees SoSh. 90,000 Gedo 88 89 94 consideration, the food transfer value recommendations should energy) and non-food items (NFIs) required to support a household correspond to 100% of the food MEB of the last month of the quarter. of 6-7 members in Somalia for one month. Grinding cost SoSh. xxxxxx Banaadir 89 83 90 Similarly, if it happens that there is a more than 10% change in the Clothes SoSh. 30,000 Middle Shabelle 94 99 98 full MEB between the first and the last month of the quarter under Social tax SoSh. 12,500 Lower Shabelle 59 62 63 consideration, the multi-purpose transfer value recommendations 58 59 65 should correspond to 80% of the full MEB of the last month of the Other specify SoSh. 30,0000 Middle Juba Lower Juba 116 111 111 FULL MEB CHANGES OVER THREE MONTHS PERIODS Region Feb-Apr 18 Mar-May 18 Apr-Jun 18 May-Jul 18 Jun-Aug 18 Jul-Sep 18 Aug-Oct 18 Sep-Nov 18 Oct-Dec 18 Nov 18-Jan 19 Dec18-Feb 19 Jan-Mar 19 Awdal +5% +12% -6% 0% +7% -4% -3% -9% +10% +16% -5% +2% Large increase (>20%) W. Galbeed 0% +12% +1% -7% +1% +7% +1% -2% -2% 0% +1% +6% Medium increase (11% to 20%) Togdheer -10% -4% -1% -6% 0% -6% -6% -2% -3% 0% +10% +14% Small increase (1% to 10%) No change Sool -10% -13% -4% +4% +4% -2% -8% -1% +7% +8% +11% +4% Small decrease (-1% to -11%) Sanaag -2% +1% +4% -2% -5% 0% +3% -2% +8% +11% +2% -2% Medium decrease (-11% to -20%) Bari -7% 0% +4% -2% -5% -3% 0% +2% -1% -1% +1% +2% Large decrease (<-20%) Nugaal +1% +8% +5% +5% +1% -3% +1% -9% -13% +2% +20% +2% Mudug -3% -5% -2% -2% -2% -3% -1% +3% -1% +1% +3% +2% Galgaduud +5% -2% 0% -1% -2% +6% +5% -1% -2% +1% +2% -2% Hiraan -12% +4% +2% -7% -6% -2% 0% +3% +1% -5% -1% +11% Bakool +5% -12% -25% -17% -8% +1% +3% -5% +2% +5% -1% +3% Small to medium increases are observed in the majority of regions around the 2019 Jilaal (January - March) period. This Bay -5% -1% -4% -13% -11% +2% +2% -7% -4% +2% +3% +5% is potentially attributed to the effects of dry weather conditions Gedo -1% -1% +1% -5% -8% -7% -6% -1% -2% -2% +1% +6% that define the period exacerbated by below average 2018 Deyr Banaadir 0% -4% -3% -3% -7% -5% -3% 0% +2% +6% -2% +2% (October - December) rains. Middle Shabelle +5% +8% +2% -6% -8% -5% 0% +3% +2% 0% +5% +4% Lower Shabelle -3% +7% +1% -21% -24% -14% -3% +5% +5% +4% +7% +8% Middle Juba -9% +8% +11% -10% -11% -4% -10% -10% -6% -5% -2% +11% Lower Juba -2% +2% 0% -4% 0% -1% 0% +2% -4% -2% -2% -4% 2 SOMALIA CASH AND MARKETS QUARTERLY DASHBOARD PRICES MAIN CEREALS 39% higher than the average price in both January and February. The prices of red sorghum in Jowhar exhibited a signicant and AVERAGE RED SORGHUM PRICE OVER TIME, JOWHAR In Mogadishu, the average price of 1 kg of cow peas increased sustained increase in both the previous and this quarter. In In the majority of assessed districts, the price of main cereals 6,000 by 11% in this quarter compared to the previous quarter. Within the previous quarter, the average price of 1 kg of red sorghum consumed remained stable or changed slightly (<10%). However, exhibited a steep increase of 48% between October and notable increases were recorded in Bu'aale at +34%, in Jowhar the quarter, the average price of 1 kg of cow peas in the district in March was 13% higher than the average price in January.
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