SOMALIA CASH AND MARKETS QUARTERLY DASHBOARD January - March 2019 Produced on 30th April 2019

INTRODUCTION ASSESSED MARKETS RECOMMENDED TRANSFER VALUES Cash-based interventions have been used by humanitarian organisations in since 20031. However significant variations Region Multi-purpose Food transfer have been noted in transfer values, sometimes in the same place by transfer value value (USD) different organisations, with varying justifications. It is in light of this (USD) that the Somalia Cash Working Group (CWG) started convening in Awdal 85 80 February 2017, against a backdrop of an increase in the number of agencies using cash-based interventions to respond to the 2016- W. Galbeed 80 65 2017 drought, with an aim to streamline the design, development Togdheer 80 (70) 70 (60) and implementation of cash based interventions in the country. Sool 105 70 Within this, the CWG provides transfer value recommendations Sanaag 115 70 on a quarterly basis - based on the minimum expenditure basket (MEB) - to humanitarian organisations implementing cash-based Bari 85 80 interventions in Somalia. Nugaal 80 60 This dashboard presents the CWG's transfer value recommendations 75 70 in addition to an overview of market performance for the period of Galgaduud 100 90 January - March 2019. The primary data sources used are the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU), which provides price Hiraan 65 (60) 50 (45) data, and the World Food Programme (WFP), which provides supply 70 60 chain and port data. Data from other CWG partners is used on an as-available basis. Bay 45 30 70 60 KEY DEVELOPMENTS 70 55 • The food MEB exhibited slight changes in the majority of the 75 65 regions from January to March 2019. However, notable changes 45 35 (30) were recorded in Togdheer at +17%, in at +15%, in Hiraan at +14% and in Lower Shabelle at +12%. This is possibly Middle Juba 50 (45) 35 (30) linked to below average 2018 Deyr (October - December) harvest 90 75 compounded by current dry weather conditions. • Similarly, the full MEB changed only slightly (<10%) in the majority In parentheses are transfer values based on January food and full of the regions from January to March 2019 except in Togdheer, Middle MEB. These should not be applied in implementation. For more Juba and Hiraan where they exhibited notable changes. Possibly information refer to the methodology section. linked to an increase in food MEB, the full MEB changed by +14% in Togdheer and by +11% in both Middle Juba and Hiraan. KEY FIGURES

• While the price of main cereals - defined as the cheaper of the two 54 assessed districts preferred cereals in a district - remained relatively stable or changed slightly in the majority of assessed districts from January to March 71 assessed markets 2019, notable changes were recorded in Bu'aale at +34%, in 44 assessed items Jowhar at +28%, in Burco at +20%, in Jilib at +20%, in Qoryorel at +18%, in Marka at +15% and in Baraawe at +11%. This is potentially attributed to reduced supply following below average 2018 Deyr rains. EXCHANGE RATES • Prices of imported commodities (red rice, sugar, vegetable oil and 32,917 24,278 xx wheat flour) remained relatively stable or exhibited small changes in the quarter. USD/SoSh USD/SoSh USD/SlSh -5% 0% -3% • Both the Somali Shilling (SoSh) and the Somaliland Shilling (SlSh) remained generally stable or appreciated by a small margin against Bossaso Mogadishu Hargeisa the United States Dollar (USD) in the quarter.

1 SOMALIA CASH AND MARKETS QUARTERLY DASHBOARD

METHODOLOGY MEB CONTENTS FULL MEB FOR THE QUARTER Below is the list of basic food and non-food items taken The CWG uses FSNAU's MEB values as the basis for determining quarter. Region Jan Feb Mar into account when establishing the MEB in the Somalia: transfer value recommendations. As per its decision, transfer values Awdal 105 100 107 should be based on urban MEB rates only. This is because: On this account, in regions where a more than 10% change in either 101 100 107 the food or full MEB was recorded between January and March 2019, Food items Quantity W. Galbeed • Rural MEB rates are not available in all regions; an update recommendation is provided and the previous one is Cereal 90 kg Togdheer 90 98 103 • In some regions, large differences between the rural and urban shown in brackets but should not be applied for implementation. This Sugar 3 kg Sool 129 134 134 rates have been difficult for partners to explain and; is the case for Hiraan, Lower Shabelle, Middle Juba and Togdheer. • The rural-urban divide is not always distinct to partners which opens Vegetable oil 6 ltr Sanaag 141 140 138 the possibility that different rates are applied in the same location. The CWG also determined that transfer value recommendations Cow peas 6 kg Bari 107 107 109 Further, food transfer value recommendations should correspond should remain fixed for three months at a time, and only be subject Non-food items Quantity Nugaal 101 117 104 to 100% of the food MEB of the first month of the quarter under to change if the MEB value in any particular region changes by a Kerosene 1.5 ltr Mudug 95 95 97 consideration, while multi-purpose transfer value recommendations notable value (>10%) following, for instance, an unprecedented Soap (laundry) 4 pcs Galgaduud 124 124 122 should correspond to 80% of the full MEB of the first month of the phenomenon. 75 78 83 quarter under consideration, both rounded to the nearest 5. Firewood varies Hiraan Water 9 drums Bakool 85 85 87 The MEB represents the minimum culturally adjusted set of basic However, if it happens that there is a more than 10% change in the Human drugs SoSh. 20,000 Bay 59 59 62 food MEB between the first and the last month of the quarter under food items (comprising 2,100 kilocalories per person per day of basic School fees SoSh. 90,000 Gedo 88 89 94 consideration, the food transfer value recommendations should energy) and non-food items (NFIs) required to support a household correspond to 100% of the food MEB of the last month of the quarter. of 6-7 members in Somalia for one month. Grinding cost SoSh. xxxxxx Banaadir 89 83 90 Similarly, if it happens that there is a more than 10% change in the Clothes SoSh. 30,000 Middle Shabelle 94 99 98 full MEB between the first and the last month of the quarter under Social tax SoSh. 12,500 Lower Shabelle 59 62 63 consideration, the multi-purpose transfer value recommendations 58 59 65 should correspond to 80% of the full MEB of the last month of the Other specify SoSh. 30,0000 Middle Juba Lower Juba 116 111 111

FULL MEB CHANGES OVER THREE MONTHS PERIODS

Region Feb-Apr 18 Mar-May 18 Apr-Jun 18 May-Jul 18 Jun-Aug 18 Jul-Sep 18 Aug-Oct 18 Sep-Nov 18 Oct-Dec 18 Nov 18-Jan 19 Dec18-Feb 19 Jan-Mar 19 Awdal +5% +12% -6% 0% +7% -4% -3% -9% +10% +16% -5% +2% Large increase (>20%) W. Galbeed 0% +12% +1% -7% +1% +7% +1% -2% -2% 0% +1% +6% Medium increase (11% to 20%) Togdheer -10% -4% -1% -6% 0% -6% -6% -2% -3% 0% +10% +14% Small increase (1% to 10%) No change Sool -10% -13% -4% +4% +4% -2% -8% -1% +7% +8% +11% +4% Small decrease (-1% to -11%) Sanaag -2% +1% +4% -2% -5% 0% +3% -2% +8% +11% +2% -2% Medium decrease (-11% to -20%) Bari -7% 0% +4% -2% -5% -3% 0% +2% -1% -1% +1% +2% Large decrease (<-20%) Nugaal +1% +8% +5% +5% +1% -3% +1% -9% -13% +2% +20% +2%

Mudug -3% -5% -2% -2% -2% -3% -1% +3% -1% +1% +3% +2% Galgaduud +5% -2% 0% -1% -2% +6% +5% -1% -2% +1% +2% -2% Hiraan -12% +4% +2% -7% -6% -2% 0% +3% +1% -5% -1% +11% Bakool +5% -12% -25% -17% -8% +1% +3% -5% +2% +5% -1% +3% Small to medium increases are observed in the majority of regions around the 2019 Jilaal (January - March) period. This Bay -5% -1% -4% -13% -11% +2% +2% -7% -4% +2% +3% +5% is potentially attributed to the effects of dry weather conditions Gedo -1% -1% +1% -5% -8% -7% -6% -1% -2% -2% +1% +6% that define the period exacerbated by below average 2018 Deyr Banaadir 0% -4% -3% -3% -7% -5% -3% 0% +2% +6% -2% +2% (October - December) rains. Middle Shabelle +5% +8% +2% -6% -8% -5% 0% +3% +2% 0% +5% +4% Lower Shabelle -3% +7% +1% -21% -24% -14% -3% +5% +5% +4% +7% +8% Middle Juba -9% +8% +11% -10% -11% -4% -10% -10% -6% -5% -2% +11% Lower Juba -2% +2% 0% -4% 0% -1% 0% +2% -4% -2% -2% -4%

2 SOMALIA CASH AND MARKETS QUARTERLY DASHBOARD

PRICES MAIN CEREALS 39% higher than the average price in both January and February. The prices of red sorghum in Jowhar exhibited a signicant and AVERAGE RED SORGHUM PRICE OVER TIME, JOWHAR In Mogadishu, the average price of 1 kg of cow peas increased sustained increase in both the previous and this quarter. In In the majority of assessed districts, the price of main cereals 6,000 by 11% in this quarter compared to the previous quarter. Within the previous quarter, the average price of 1 kg of red sorghum consumed remained stable or changed slightly (<10%). However, exhibited a steep increase of 48% between October and notable increases were recorded in Bu'aale at +34%, in Jowhar the quarter, the average price of 1 kg of cow peas in the district in March was 13% higher than the average price in January. December 2018 and in this quarter they exhibited a less steep 5,000 at +28%, in Burco at +20%, in Jilib at +20%, in Qoryorel at +18%, but significant increase of 14% between January and March. in Marka at +15% and in Baraawe at +11%. This is potentially The average price of 1 kg of white maize in Baidoa increased by Overall, the average price of 1 kg of red sorghum in the district 4,000 attributed to reduced supply following below average 2018 Deyr was 38% higher in this quarter compared to the previous quarter. rains. 9% in this quarter compared to the previous quarter. Within the quarter, the average price of 1 kg of white maize in the district in 3,000 IMPORTED FOOD COMMODITIES LOCAL CEREALS March was 12% higher than the average price in January. In Jowhar, the average price of 1 kg of white maize increased 2,000 Whereas the average price of cow peas in Baidoa increased The prices of imported food commodities remained relatively by 22% in this quarter compared to the previous quarter. Again, by just 3% in this quarter compared to the previous quarter, stable or changed only slightly in this quarter in the majority of compared to the previous quarter where they exhibited a slight 1,000 a significant increase is evident within the quarter, with the assessed markets. A similar trend was observed in the previous increase between October and December, in this quarter, they average price of 1 kg of cow peas in the district in March being quarter. exhibited a significant increase with the average price of 1 kg of 0 27% higher than the average price in January. white maize in the district in March being 28% higher than the However, in Mogadishu, the average price of 1 kg of wheat Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Similar trends are observed in Bossaso and Jowhar. While the average price in January. flour increased by 11% in this quarter compared to the previous average price of cow peas in Bossaso exhibited a 10% decrease quarter. AVERAGE WHITE MAIZE PRICE OVER TIME, JOWHAR in this quarter compared to the previous quarter, a sustained The average price of 1 kg of red sorghum in Baidoa increased increase is evident within the quarter, with the average price of by 13% in this quarter compared to the previous quarter. Again, On the other hand, while the average price of 1 L of vegetable 7,000 1 kg of cow peas in the district in March being 11% higher than compared to the previous quarter where they exhibited a steep oil in Baidoa exhibited a 7% decrease in this quarter compared average price in January. increase of 43% between October and December 2018, in this to the previous quarter, a relatively higher decrease is observed 6,000 In Jowhar, the average price of 1 kg of cow peas increased by quarter, they exhibited a slight increase with the average price of within the quarter, with the average price of 1 L of vegetable oil 5,000 just 3% in this quarter compared to the previous one. However, 1 kg of red sorghum in March being 3% higher than the average in the district in March being 21% lower than the average price in price in January. both February and January. the average price of 1 kg of cow peas in the district in March was 4,000

PRICE TRENDS3,4 3,000 2,000 Items Baidoa Price Bossaso Price Hargeisa Price Jowhar Price Kismayo Price Mogadishu Price (SoSh) change (SoSh) change (SlSh) change (SoSh) change (SoSh) change (SoSh) change 1,000 (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) 0 Local cereals Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Cow peas (1 kg) 16,729 +3% 41,917 -10% 16,000 -14% 14,417 +3% 28,000 +4% 22,072 +11% AVERAGE WHEAT FLOUR PRICE OVER TIME, MOGADISHU White maize (1 kg) 5,267 +9% - - 5,000 0% 5,258 +22% 9,333 -3% 9,394 +4% 12,500 White sorghum (1 kg) 5,500 +4% - - 4,000 0% - - - - 9,606 -1% Red sorghum (1 kg) 5,050 +13% 28,167 -2% 4,000 0% 5,317 +38% 8,000 0% 9,100 +10% 12,000 Imported food commodities 11,500 Vegetable oil (1 L) 23,058 -7% 35,500 -1% 20,000 +9% 22,000 -6% 24,000 0% 22,944 +6% Wheat flour (1 kg) 15,250 -2% 18,000 0% 4,500 0% 14,000 0% 13,000 -4% 12,139 +11% 11,000 Red rice (1 kg) 15,000 0% 19,667 0% 5,000 0% 14,000 0% 13,000 -4% 11,844 0% 10,500 Sugar (1 kg) 14,000 0% 20,000 0% 6,500 -3% 14,000 0% 15,000 -1% 13,194 +1% 10,000

9,500 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19

3 SOMALIA CASH AND MARKETS QUARTERLY DASHBOARD

PORT DATA SUPPLY CHAIN FOOD IMPORTS ECONOMIC RISKS Bossaso food imports in this quarter were 85,523 MT. This is an 18% The price of wheat flour in District in Nugaal Region increased by a decrease compared to the previous quarter and a 21% increase compared notable margin due to scarcity of the commodity in the markets. to the same quarter in 2018. Within the quarter, food imports in March totaled to 45,348 MT, which is a 161% increase in comparison to February CORRIDOR RISKS and a 99% increase in comparison to January. A similar trend was observed in the same period in 2018. In comparison to the 2014 - 2018 average, food Mostly affected regions were Bardera District in Gedo Region, Mareergur imports in March were 64% higher. This potentially indicates a higher than District in Galgaduud Region and Belet Xawo District in Gedo Region. normal reliance on food imports. • The Lead-time of Mogadishu - Bardera Supply corridor increased from 50,000 4 days to 5 days, this is due to the early onset of Gu rainy (April - June) season. On the same reason the cost of hiring a commercial truck also 45,000 hiked from $4000 to $4200(+$200.00). 40,000 • More than 150 Commercial trucks with different food & NFIs are stuck in 35,000 the corridor between Belet Weyne and Marerguur for the past two weeks 30,000 now due to illegal checkpoints mounted by clan militia levying tax on the 25,000 transporters. So far no stock-out/price hike was reported but there is 20,000 envisaged impact of this on the price and availability of commodities in the Metric tonnes market (Mareergur). 15,000 10,000 • High demand of food commodities have been reported in Belet Xawo district and as well there is fear of supply shortage due to the early onset 5,000 of Gu rain (April - June) in the region that can render the supply corridor 0 impassable and thus anticipated price hike of food commodities. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Average (2014-2018) 2018 2019

LIVESTOCK EXPORTS ENDNOTES Bossaso animal exports in this quarter were 332,329 heads. This is a 26% and 17% increase compared to the previous quarter and the same quarter 1. M.Daniels and G. Anderson. Evaluation of the 2017 Somalia in 2018 respectively. Within the quarter, animal exports in March totaled to Humanitarian Cash-Based Response. August 2018. 127,214 heads, which is a 33% increase in comparison to February and 2. Price data was collected by FSNAU from 71 markets across 54 16% increase in comparison to January. In comparison to the 2014 - 2018 districts and 18 regions in Somalia. average, animal exports in March were 20% higher. 3. Following consensus by CWG members, trend analysis has focused on Baidoa, Bossaso, Hargeisa, Jowhar, Kismayo and Mogadishu districts 300,000 given their regional significance when it comes to markets and trade. 4. Price change represents the percentage change in the average price 250,000 of a commodity in this quarter compared to the previous quarter. 200,000

150,000 Heads 100,000 For more information on this dashboard, please contact Somalia 50,000 CWG: [email protected] 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Average (2014-2018) 2018 2019

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