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Italian Insurance Market Snapshots

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Italian Insurance Market Snapshots The Italian Insurance Market 2017 figures + 9M18 overview Italian insurance market snapshots The Italian Insurance Market • 2017 figures + 9M18 overview PwC 1 Section 1 – Italian insurance market snapshots Italian insurance market Key Messages • In 2017, Italian GWP declined by 2.4% to €131bn with life business falling by 3.6%, partially compensated by non-life increasing by 1.2%. Premiums represented ca. 8% of FY17 Key-data Italian GDP, representing the 4th highest ratio in Europe • Technical results decreased by 10.9% from 2017 higher incidence of cost over lower volumes in life and impact of catastrophic events for non-life Italian insurance market GWP €131bn, -2.4% vs. FY16 • After the adoption of Solvency II in 2016, insurers are putting great effort on capital o/w Life: €99bn (-3.6% vs. FY16) management, reflected by the increase of the market Solvency ratio to 241% in 2017 (221% Non-life: €32bn (+1.1% vs. FY16) in 2016) • Fintech (33 insuretech entities in Italy) and healthcare represent major disruptions for the Largest Italian insurance insurance sector with businesses affected recording double digit growth companies: • Proper investments in cyber insurance risk management may guarantee to insurers a o Life: Poste Vita (market share equal significant advantage towards competitors, as the Italian industrial 4.0 framework will to 17.5%) demand protection from cyber attacks o Non-life: UnipolSai Assicurazioni • Interim figures lead to a forecast for 2018 of an increase to ca. €134bn GWPs due to (market share equal to 18.8%) growth in both life, as traditional products will be supported by rising interest rates, and Largest Italian insurance groups: non-life, driven by demand for innovative products 2013/2017 Technical result of Italian insurers (1) o Life: Intesa Sanpaolo Group (market share equal to 19.4%) € million FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 o Non-life: Unipol Group (market Gross written premiums 118,787 143,318 146,951 134,209 130,947 share equal to 21.2%) Change in reserves (29,174) (59,579) (52,844) (48,559) (38,932) Incurred claims (89,188) (85,778) (91,219) (82,936) (91,395) General expenses (11,971) (12,411) (12,672) (12,614) (12,836) Investment income 19,611 21,866 17,172 17,705 19,324 Other technical income (charges) (930) (908) (987) (926) (979) Technical result 7,135 6,508 6,401 6,879 6,129 Reinsurance result (403) (217) (98) (288) 37 Net technical result 6,732 6,291 6,303 6,591 6,166 Source: PwC analysis on ANIA data (1) Direct and ceded business, excluding business underwritten in freedom of service PwC | The Italian Insurance Market • 2017 figures + 9M18 overview 2 Section 1 – Italian insurance market snapshots Italian insurance market trend 2013/2017 Italian insurers GWP (1) 143.3 147.0 134.2 131.0 118.8 32.8 32.0 32.0 32.3 33.7 Non-Life € million € Life 110.5 114.9 102.3 98.6 85.1 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 In 2017 Italian GWP decreased by -2.4%, continuing the 2017 Breakdown by distribution channel reduction recorded in 2016 (-8.7%), after years of uninterrupted growth, with an opposite performance of 23% <1% life and non-life businesses. 79% 61% Life business has declined, falling from the record level of 15% Life Non-Life €114.9bn in 2015 to €98.6m in 2017 (-7.4% in 2 years), as a consequence of low market interest rates and new €99bn €32bn Non-life capital requirements. Despite the decrease, Italy still 6% represents the third European life market by GWP, after UK 15% and France. 1% Non-life premiums on the other hand increased by +1.2% Brokers and direct sales to €32.3bn, thanks to the growth in non-motor premiums Source: PwC analysis on IVASS and ANIA data partially off-set by the decrease in motor business. (1) Direct and ceded business, excluding business underwritten in freedom of service PwC | The Italian Insurance Market • 2017 figures + 9M18 overview 3 Section 1 – Italian insurance market snapshots Top Italian insurance players Companies Groups 2017 top 5 ranking of life insurance companies and groups by GWP Market share 19.4% 25,000 20% 17.5% 17.5% 18% 22,515 20,000 44% 15.0% 66% 16% 20,263 20,263 Top 5 companies Top 5 groups 14% market share 17,405 market share 15,000 12% 8.5% 9.6% 10% share share 10,000 6.9% 6.8% 8% Market 11,161 GWP (€ million)(€ GWP 9,798 4.3% 4.5% 6% 8,036 7,929 5,000 4% 5,026 5,244 2% - 0% Poste Vita Intesa Sanpaolo Generali Intesa Creditras Intesa Sanpaolo Poste Vita Generali Allianz Aviva Vita Italia Sanpaolo Life Vita Group Group Group Group Group 2017 top 5 ranking of non-life insurance companies and groups by GWP 15,000 30% 51% 62% 25% 12,000 21.2% 18.8% Top 5 companies Top 5 groups 20% market share market share 9,000 15.7% 13.4% 13.3% 15% 7,790 share 6,000 6,901 9.8% Market GWP (€ million)(€ GWP 5,760 10% 4,936 6.0% 5.5% 4.6% 4,879 3,000 4.1% 3,594 5% 1,691 1,491 2,200 2,017 - 0% Unipol Sai Generali Allianz Società AXA Unipol Generali Allianz Reale Mutua Cattolica Italia Cattolica Assicurazioni Group Group Group Group Assicurazioni Group Source: PwC analysis on ANIA data PwC | The Italian Insurance Market • 2017 figures + 9M18 overview 4 Section 1 – Italian insurance market snapshots Investments 2013/2017 breakdown of investments (not related to investment contracts) In 2017, investments of Italian insurers reached €624bn, with fixed-income assets representing ca. 76% of 625 602 76% Bonds total portfolio. 564 18 18 60 521 20 57 12% Funds 466 19 57 73 Italian government bonds in particular remain the 62 10% Equity 19 56 50 primary form of investment (ca. 45% of assets), as they 35 57 3% 26 Other combine low capital absorption with a higher return in comparison to other Euro-area govies. Consequently, share € in billions € in 465 473 410 437 Other prices of listed Italian insurers are affected by spread 364 Equities between Italian and German government bonds’ yields. Mutual funds Mutual funds have progressively increased their weight Bonds in the market’s portfolio (12% in 2017 vs. 6% in 2013) due to FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 the reduction of government bond yields started in Source: PwC analysis on ANIA and IVASS data 2012 and the need to grant higher returns to policyholders. 2012/2018 main 5 European Government Bonds yield to maturity 2018 Italian insurance stock index and spread BTP - Bund 8% 18,000 3.5% 17,500 3.0% 6% Italy 17,000 2.5% Spain 16,500 5% 2.0% UK 16,000 1.5% 3% France 15,500 Spread Yield to maturity to Yield 1.0% Germany 15,000 2% FTSE All Insurance Share All FTSE 14,500 0.5% 0% 14,000 0.0% Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Source: Bloomberg FTSE All Share Insurance Spread BTP-Bund PwC | The Italian Insurance Market • 2017 figures + 9M18 overview 5 Section 1 – Italian insurance market snapshots The negative trend in motor premiums continues, but signs suggest the decrease in volumes could end 2013/2017 Italian market non-life GWP Average motor premium continued in 2017 the six-years-long decrease, reaching in the last quarter of 2017 €417 for a private contract (-0.7% vs. 2016). This reduction has been driven by factors 33,690 32,800 32,002 31,953 32,340 related to both tighter competition and a reduction in information asymmetries, such as: • Competition increase due to online aggregators and innovative Total € million € 18,644 players 17,567 16,642 Motor 16,128 16,003 • Telematics (i.e black boxes, pay as you drive) • Actions from the Regulator to reduce frauds (i.e. “Archivio integrato antifrode”) • Stricter rules on claims compensation of micro-damages FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 In comparison to previous years however, the variation of GWPs and average premiums in 2017 has been limited, as margins for pricing strategies are narrow. Moreover, loss ratio has benefitted in 2017 from a reduction in cost of claims and decreased for the first time since 2013. Constant average prices and margins could end in 2018 the reduction of motor premiums and represent a new equilibrium. Motor (7.7%) (5.8%) (5.3%) (3.1%) (0.8%) GWP Focus on MTPL Other € in millions FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 GWP (€ millions) 16,230 15,180 14,187 13,494 13,203 (1.2%) 1.2% 0.8% 3.0% 3.2% LoBs Average price per policy (€) 506 470 439 420 417 GWP # of policies (millions) 32.1 32.3 32.3 32.1 31.7 Claims frequency (%) 5.7% 5.5% 5.6% 5.7% 5.6% FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Loss ratio (%) 68.7% 69.5% 72.1% 76.1% 75.1%75.9% Source: PwC analysis on IVASS and ANIA data PwC | The Italian Insurance Market • 2017 figures + 9M18 overview 6 Section 1 – Italian insurance market snapshots Solvency II 2014/2017 Solvency II ratios 250% 255% 250% 241% 233% 233% 230% 232% 221% 210% 208% 212% 179% 163% 161% 134% 2014(1) 2015(1) 2016 2017 2014(1) 2015(1) 2016 2017 2014(1) 2015(1) 2016 2017 2014(1) 2015(1) 2016 2017 Life Non-life Composite Total market 2017 Composition of Basic Solvency Capital Requirement (BSCR) 13% (21%) The introduction of Solvency II regulatory framework in 18% 3% January 2016 has put the focus of insurers on capital 100% management, reflected by a general improvement 6% 80% between 2016 and 2017 in the coverage of capital requirements across different lines of business.
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