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Election Predictions with Realclearpolitics' Tom Bevan

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Election Predictions with Realclearpolitics' Tom Bevan WTH is going on in the 2020 polls? Election predictions with RealClearPolitics’ Tom Bevan Episode #75 | October 19, 2020 | Danielle Pletka, Marc Thiessen, and Tom Bevan Danielle Pletka: Hi, I'm Danielle Pletka. Marc Thiessen: I'm Marc Thiessen. Danielle Pletka: Welcome to our podcast, all the more apt for 2020, “What the Hell Is Going On?” Marc, what the hell is going on now? Marc Thiessen: We are weeks away from the most important election in American history and none of us know what the hell is going to happen. That's what's going on, Dany. Danielle Pletka: Really, it's true. I mean even with all of my Democratic friends who feel really solid and my Republican friends who are biting their nails, I’ve got to say nobody feels like this is going to be an election that reflects well on our country. Marc Thiessen: Well, that's an understatement. No doubt. I mean look, you would think that as we got closer to the election, that things would get less weird and less bizarre, and more normal, and it hasn't. I mean on the Trump side, we had that debate performance a few weeks ago. That was just … If you were a swing voter, one of these 20% of Trump's 2016 voters who said, “I voted for him, but I don't like him,” you basically just looked at that and said, “I'm done.” No effort at all to win over these persuadable or marginal voters at all. Marc Thiessen: In fact, pushing them away. But then you've got, on the other hand, Joe Biden. We've had a long episode on this topic. Court-packing is on the ballot right now and Joe Biden basically refuses to tell the American people what he's going to do. Danielle Pletka: I think that's right. Look, I have been actually surprised and gratified because this is one of the things to me that is most important about what's on the ballot this year, and that is our institutions. I feel like our institutions are what helped us survive the Trump years. For me, the notion that our institutions would be upended is what is frightening about a Democratic across-the-board victory here. Notwithstanding the fact that Trump has challenged our institutions, I think they've actually remained quite resilient. But it is really interesting to see that this court-packing issue is something that has hit a nerve for the Dems. Danielle Pletka: What we've seen is that … I saw Chris Coons, he is a senator from Delaware, he's 2 a man whose intellect I have no doubt. A smart guy, a thoughtful guy. He's a very big partisan, but he's got some intellectual integrity, I thought. He said, “The real court-packing is the nomination and soon to be confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett.” I was just like, “Dude, what? That's how worried you are? You're willing to use that pretzel logic?” That's incredible. Marc Thiessen: The reality is, look, filling a vacancy on the Supreme Court is not court-packing. Court-packing has a very clear definition that originated with FDR in the 1930s, which is adding seats to the Supreme Court. They may not like the way the Republicans handled the vacancies of Scalia's seat and now Ginsburg's seat. They may not have thought it was fair that Republicans didn't give Merrick Garland an up or down vote. They may think it's unfair that they're now giving Amy Coney Barrett the vote that they didn't give Merrick Garland. All of that is legitimate, but it ain’t court-packing. It's using the powers that you have been given by the voters in a constitutional way to fulfill your constitutional duties. Marc Thiessen: It's unfortunate for Democrats that Justice Ginsburg passed away when she did. Anthony Kennedy was 81 when he retired and he decided that he was going to retire when there was a Republican president who was going to pick somebody who he approved of for his seat. Well, in 2009, Ginsburg got her cancer diagnosis at the start of the Obama presidency, and she could have retired during Obama's presidency and be replaced by somebody she approved of. But she decided to continue serving until she was 87, and roll the dice that she would outlive Donald Trump, and it didn't work out. Marc Thiessen: She could have had a say in her successor. The Democrats have no one to blame but themselves. The left has no one to blame but themselves for this situation. The idea that you would then turn around in a huff and do something that has not been done in 150 years and literally politicize the institution of the Supreme Court, and not even be honest with the voters about the fact that you're doing it, that you're planning to do it, everybody knows they're planning to do it. It’s just bizarre to me. Danielle Pletka: Well, it's not really bizarre. It's just politics, and the state that politics have come to, but coming back to the election. I mean just watching this ... we keep talking about the headlines we saw. And, of course, there's almost nothing happening in the world that isn't dominated by the election. But I saw this headline that said, “If Donald Trump wanted to lose the election, would he be doing anything differently?” I thought that really encapsulated 2020 for me because he has literally snatched defeat from the jaws of victory at every turn, whether it was with his COVID diagnosis and leaping out and saying, “I'm cured” like some sort of third world freaking dictator, or his behavior at that first debate, or his decision to punt on the second debate. I mean we could take the rest of the podcast and just talk about Donald Trump's missed opportunities. Marc Thiessen: Oh, no doubt. He's either a madman or a genius. We're going to find out on Election Day. Danielle Pletka: I don't doubt that. I've got a bet, if anyone wants to reach out to us, on whether he is a madman or a genius. AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE | 1789 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington, DC 20036 | 202.862.5800 | aei.org 3 Marc Thiessen: Or maybe both. He could turn out to be both. But I mean if he wins the election, he's a genius because what it means is that he knew that this was going to be a base election and that his entire campaign was built on turning out his base, energizing his base. Those people are going to walk over broken glass to vote for him, come hell or high water. If he wins, we were all wrong in terms of the advice we were giving him about, “Moderate your tone,” and “Be more presidential.” Those things have just exhausted a lot of voters. Those are votes he could have won. Those are votes for the taking that he drove away. Maybe he'll win anyway, but I think that that was just a big mistake. Danielle Pletka: Listen, you and I agree wholeheartedly about this. The other thing that Donald Trump has done … I mean look who we're talking about. We're only talking about Donald Trump. The fact of the matter is that Joe Biden is, I think questionably competent. A lot of my Democratic friends have gotten very angry with me for saying so, but I've seen it. I've watched it. And because I've known the man for as long as I've known the man, I see it all the more. I know people don't want to believe it, but let me tell you, folks. When people say to me, people who I like, I respect, and I trust, say to me, “I'd rather vote for senile Joe Biden, and wasn't Ronald Reagan senile too?” That's when I know people know that man is no longer all there, and yet Donald Trump has managed to make even that a non-factor- Marc Thiessen: Yes. Danielle Pletka: In his absolute circus. Because it's true, Trump has all of the things that we've said over the course of this podcast, that you just said now. But the reality is he is not running against a mainstream Democrat, Joe Biden, 1995. He is running against the Joe Biden who is hanging there as the facade for AOC, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Democratic Party. Donald Trump has managed to drown that out. Marc Thiessen: It's fascinating. If you look at what's happened in 2020, and every week you think nothing more can happen and it happens. Marc Thiessen: It's true. We've had the worst pandemic since 1918, the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, the worst racial unrest since the 1960s. Donald Trump shouldn't even be in range, a normal president wouldn't even be in range of winning an election with all that happening on his watch. Then you find, the Gallup Poll comes out, and despite the worst pandemic since 1918, despite the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, despite the worst racial unrest since the 1960s, 56% of Americans say, “Yes. I'm better off now than I was four years ago.” Fifty-six percent of Americans.
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