THE TERM STRUCTURE OF BOND MARKET LIQUIDITY Ruslan Goyenko Avanidhar Subrahmanyam Andrey Ukhov McGill University University of California at Indiana University Los Angeles May 2, 2016 Abstract Previous studies of Treasury market illiquidity span short time-periods and focus on particular maturities. In contrast, we study the joint time-series of illiquidity for different maturities over an extended time sample. We also compare time series determinants of on-the-run and off-the-run illiquidity. Illiquidity increases and the difference between spreads of long- and short-term bonds significantly widens during recessions, suggesting a “flight to liquidity” phenomenon wherein investors shift into the more liquid short-term bonds during economic contractions. We also document that macroeconomic variables such as inflation and federal fund rates forecast off-the-run illiquidity significantly but have only modest forecasting ability for on-the-run illiquidity. Bond returns across all maturities are forecastable by off-the-run short-term illiquidity but not by illiquidity of other maturities or by on-the-run bond illiquidity. Thus, short-term off-the-run liquidity, by reflecting macro shocks first, is the primary source of the liquidity premium in the Treasury bond market. Ruslan Y. Goyenko, McGill University, 1001 Sherbrooke St. West, Montreal, Quebec H3A 1G5. E-mail:
[email protected]. Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, Goldyne and Irwin Hearsh Chair in Money and Banking, UCLA Anderson School of Management,
[email protected] Andrey D. Ukhov, Kelley School of Business, Indiana University, 1309 E. Tenth Street, Bloomington, IN 47405. E-mail:
[email protected]. We thank Yakov Amihud, Michael Fleming, Tyler Henry, Paul Irvine, Tao Shu, Chris Stivers, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, Ginger Wu, and participants in a seminar at the University of Georgia, and at the 2007 Conference on Financial Economics and Accounting at New York University for valuable comments.