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La Revolución Cubana 50 Años Después. Impacto De Los Factores Externos E Internos En La Situación Económica Y Social De Cuba En 2009

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La Revolución Cubana 50 Años Después. Impacto De Los Factores Externos E Internos En La Situación Económica Y Social De Cuba En 2009 Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina “Santa María de los Buenos Aires” Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Políticas y de la Comunicación Doctorado en Ciencias Políticas La Revolución Cubana 50 años después. Impacto de los factores externos e internos en la situación económica y social de Cuba en 2009. Autor: Lic. Pedro Cornelio von Eyken Director de la tesis: Prof. Dr. Juan Gabriel Tokatlian Dedicatoria Dedico esta tesis doctoral a mi esposa Corina por su constante apoyo durante los siete años que demandaron mi asistencia a los seminarios en horario vespertino y la redacción del trabajo de investigación durante los fines de semana, para no interferir en mi dedicación exclusiva a la carrera diplomática, en la que mi mujer me acompaña desde hace 27 años. 2 Agradecimientos Agradezco, primer lugar, a mi director de tesis, el Profesor Doctor Juan Gabriel Tokatlian, por su guía y asesoramiento constantes a lo largo de los años de investigación y redacción de este trabajo. También agradezco a mi amigo Israel Lotersztain, Ingeniero por la Universidad de Buenos Aires y Doctor en Ciencias Sociales por la Universidad Nacional de General Sarmiento, por sus valiosas observaciones de forma y de fondo y, sobre todo, por su paciencia. Finalmente, reservo un sentido agradecimiento a mi colega y amiga, la Dra. Carina Viviana Ganuzza, por sus consejos sobre metodología y presentación del trabajo. Comenzamos juntos los seminarios de doctorado en la Universidad Católica Argentina, en 2013. Pero ella redactó y defendió antes su tesis doctoral, lo que redundó en beneficio de esta tesis. 3 Abreviaturas CEPAL: Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe CNUMAD: Conferencia de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Medio Ambiente y el Desarrollo. EE.UU.: Estados Unidos (se utilizan indistintamente) FAR: Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias GOSPLAN: abreviatura de las palabras rusas que significan “Comité para la Planificación Económica en la Unión Soviética”. JUCEPLAN: Junta Central de Planificación, creada en marzo de 1960 ONE: Oficina Nacional de Estadísticas ONU: Organización de las Naciones Unidas (UN, United Nations en inglés) PT: Partido Trabalhista de Brasil URSS: Unión de Repúblicas Socialistas Soviéticas (se utilizan indistintamente) 4 Indice de contenidos Abreviaturas………………………………………………………………………….. 4 Preámbulo……………………………………………………………………………. 11 INTRODUCCION Y ORGANIZACIÓN DE LOS CAPITULOS……………..…. 16 CAPITULO 1: ESTRUCTURA METODOLOGICA DE LA TESIS……………. 23 1.1 Preguntas de investigación…………………………………………..…………….. 23 1.2 Objetivos ……………………………………….…………………………............. 24 1.3 Marco teórico……………………………………………………………………... 25 1.3.1 Objeto de estudio………………………………………………………………....25 1.3.2 Dimensión histórico-contextual..…………………………………………………26 1.3.3 Dimensión conceptual…………………………………………………………….27 1.3.4 Dimensión teórica y paradigmas……………………………………….................34 . 1.4 Hipótesis de trabajo ………………………………………………………………...39 1.5 Diseño y metodología de la investigación ………………………………………….40 1.5.1 Las variables independientes…………………………………………………….. 40 1.5.2 La variable dependiente…………………………………………………………. 42 1.6 Recolección y análisis de datos …………………………………………………….46 1.7 Originalidad y aporte teórico…..…………………………………………………. .50 CAPÍTULO 2: ANÁLISIS HISTÓRICO PREVIO A LA REVOLUCION CUBANA……………………………………………………………………………....52 2.1 Influencia del azúcar………………………………………………………………. 52 5 2.2 Relaciones con Estados Unidos………………………………………………….. 58 2.3 Cuba en la década de 1950………………………………………………………. 67 2.3.1 Gobierno de Carlos Prío Socarrás……………………………………………… 67 2.3.2 Gobierno de Fulgencio Batista………………………………………..………………..69 CAPITULO 3: PRIMERA VARIABLE INDEPENDIENTE. DECISIONES SOBERANAS DE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA DEL GOBIERNO DE LA REVOLUCIÓN CUBANA ENTRE 1959 Y 2009…..……………………………. 102 3.1 El problema de la complejidad de las estadísticas cubanas………………………102 3.2 Los ocho ciclos idealistas y pragmáticos según Carmelo Mesa-Lago…………....103 3.2.1 Ciclo 1959-1966………………………………………………………………. 106 3.2.1.1 La reforma agraria…………………………………………………………... 109 3.2.1.2 Azúcar vs. industrialización………………………………………………… 113 3.2.1.3 El modelo soviético vs. el modelo maoísta…………………………………. 115 3.2.2 Ciclo 1966-1970……………………………………………………………….. 117 3.2.3 Ciclo 1971-1985……………………………………………………………….. 121 3.2.3.1 Creciente dependencia cubana de la URSS………………………………… 123 3.2.4 Ciclo 1986-1990……………………………………………………………… 127 3.2.5 Ciclo 1991-1996………………………………………………………………. 130 3.2.5.1 El Período Especial en Tiempos de Paz…………………………………….. 132 3.2.6 Ciclo 1997-2003………………………………………………………………. 134 3.2.7 Ciclo 2003-2006……………………………………………………………… 137 3.2.8 Desde 2007 en adelante……………………………………………………… 139 3.3 Otras miradas: los economistas disidentes y oficialistas residentes en Cuba…… 142 6 3.3.1 El grupo independiente o “disidente”..……………………………………….. 142 3.3.2 El grupo “oficialista”. La compilación de Al Campbell ………………………. 144 CAPITULO 4: SEGUNDA VARIABLE INDEPENDIENTE. CONJUNTO DE SANCIONES ECONÓMICAS, COMERCIALES Y FINANCIERAS IMPUESTAS POR ESTADOS UNIDOS A CUBA DESDE 1959…..…………… 149 4.1 Otros embargos y sanciones económicas de Estados Unidos previos a 1959…….150 4.2 Contra la Revolución Cubana, ¿embargo o bloqueo?............................................. 155 4.3 La reforma agraria y las primeras sanciones bajo Dwight Eisenhower………….. 158 4.4 El embargo dispuesto por John F. Kennedy en 1962……………………………. 170 4.5 Las sanciones entre Lyndon Johnson y George W. Bush (1963-2004)…………..180 4.5.1 Presidencia de Lyndon Johnson (1963-1968)…………………………………..180 4.5.2 Presidencias de Richard Nixon (1969-1974) y Gerald Ford (1974-1976)…….. 180 4.5.3 Digresión I: la “superación del bloqueo” en 1975…………………………….. 181 4.5.4 Presidencia de James Carter (1977-1980)…………………………………….. 184 4.5.5 Presidencia de Ronald Reagan (1981-1989)……………………………………185 4.5.6 Presidencia de George H. W. Bush (1989-1993)……………………………… 185 4.5.7 Presidencia de Bill Clinton (1993-2000)………………………………………. 186 4.5.8 Digresión II: fin del embargo de alimentos y medicinas………………………. 189 4.5.9 Presidencia de George W. Bush (2001-2009)…………………………………..190 4.6 La prolongada vigencia de un corolario político en el embargo Norteamericano a Cuba……………………………………………………………… 191 4.6.1 La invasión de Bahía de Cochinos…………………………………………….. 194 4.6.2 La relación cubano-soviética……………………………………………………202 4.6.3 De la Operación Mangosta a la crisis de los misiles……………………………206 7 4.6.4 La influencia de Cuba en la Guerra Fría………………………………………. 214 4.6.5 La participación de Cuba en la guerra de Angola………………….…………. 220 4.6.6 El involucramiento del sistema interamericano por presión de EE.UU………. 223 4.7 Costo y beneficio del embargo para ambos países……………...………………. 231 4.8 Cinco décadas de enfrentamiento oral y escrito de Fidel Castro con Estados Unidos…………………. ……………………………………………… 235 CAPITULO 5: TERCERA VARIABLE INDEPENDIENTE. CONSECUENCIAS ECONÓMICAS, COMERCIALES Y FINANCIERAS DEL COLAPSO DE LA UNIÓN SOVIÉTICA Y SUS ALIADOS A COMIENZOS DE LA DÉCADA DE 1990…………………...………………….. 239 5.1 Dependencia cubana de la Unión Soviética…………………………………….. 239 5.2 Consecuencias económicas del derrumbe soviético.............................................. 242 5.3 Cuba y la URSS más allá de la economía ….……………..…………………….. 248 5.4 Cuba y el bloque socialista de Europa Oriental………….……………………… 250 5.5 Venezuela, China y Brasil como sucesores de la URSS…..…………………….. 254 5.5.1 Venezuela………………………………………………………………………. 255 5.5.2 China……………………………………………………………………………. 263 5.5.3 Brasil……………………………………………………………………………. 271 CAPITULO 6: VARIABLE DEPENDIENTE. SITUACIÓN ECONÓMICA Y SOCIAL DE CUBA EN LA COYUNTURA CRÍTICA DE 2009 ……………… 277 6.1 Estancamiento estructural de la economía………………………………………….279 6.2 Caída del salario promedio de la población…………………………………………285 6.2.1 La desigualdad de los asalariados en dólares…………………………………….. 286 6.3 Reducción de la cuota de alimentos básicos…………………………………........... 290 8 6.4 Dependencia de la importación de alimentos……………………………………….298 6.5 Los tres mayores proveedores de divisas………………………………………….. 301 6.6 La salud y la educación……………………………………..……………………... 302 6.7 Nueva estructura social: una población cada vez más oscura…..…..…………….. .310 6.8 Déficits en infraestructura y transporte.…….………………………………….….. 312 6.9 Un contraste sugestivo: los gastos de defensa de Cuba…………………………….324 6.10 Incidencia de la crisis mundial de 2008……………….…………………………..327 6.11 Efectos de los huracanes de 2008………………………………………………… 329 CAPITULO 7: CUBA Y VIETNAM, MAS DIFERENCIAS QUE SIMILITUDES……………………………………………………………………….. 331 7.1 La base teórica de George & Bennett………..…………………………………….. 331 7.2 Los siete factores políticos diferenciadores de Bunck……………….…………….. 333 7.3 Seguimiento de procesos y resultado del análisis en el mecanismo causal……….…344 7.4 Resultados concretos de la diferente evolución entre ambos sistemas ……………. 346 CAPITULO 8: CONCLUSIONES Y APORTE TEÓRICO………………………... 350 8.1 Recuperación de los objetivos…,,,,,,……………………………………………….. 350 8.1.1 Cumplimiento del objetivo general en el mecanismo causal …………….………..351 8.1.2 Cumplimiento de los objetivos específicos en el mecanismo causal …………….. 359 8.2 Recuperación de las preguntas de investigación …………………………………… 362 8.2.1 Primera pregunta de investigación ……………………………………………….. 362 8.2.2 Segunda pregunta de investigación ………………………………………………. 363 9 8.3 Validación de la hipótesis de trabajo …………………………………………… 364 8.4 Aporte teórico de la tesis …………………………………………………………364 POST SCRIPTUM - DIEZ AÑOS DESPUES (2009-2019) ………….………….. 374 i) De 2009 a 2011……………………………………………………………………374 ii) El VI Congreso del
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