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Digicel Bond Analysis Bond Analysis: Digicel Group Limited VMWM Research and Stockbroking | April 09, 2020 876 -960 -5000 [email protected] vmwealth.com 53 Knutsford Boulevard, Kingston 5 DIGICEL DLLTD DLLTD DLLTD DLLTD DLLTD DLLTD DLLTD GROUP 2023 2021 2020 2022 2022 2022 2024 JAMAICA LIMITED Issuer Digicel Digicel Digicel Digicel Digicel Digicel Digicel Ltd. Ltd. Group Group Group Group Group Two Ltd. One Ltd. Two Ltd. Ltd. Ltd. Industry Wireless Wireless Wireless Wireless Wireless Wireless Wireless Telecom Telecom Telecom Telecom Telecom Telecom Telecom Risk HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH Classification Recommendation: DGL 1 Notes Country of Bermuda Bermuda Bermuda Bermuda Bermuda Bermuda Bermuda - EXCHANGE Incorporation DGL 2 Notes- DO NOT EXCHANGE Coupon Rate 6.75% 6% 8.25% 8.25% 8.25% 7.125% 9.125% DGL 2 2024 Notes- DO NOT EXCHANGE DL 2021 Notes- DO NOT EXCHANGE Outstanding 925,000 1,300,00 0 62,851 1,000,000 937,149 21,004 993,015.77 DL 2023 Notes- EXCHANGE Amount (000) ABOUT THE COMPANY Price $64.434 $79.332 $68.650 $65.616 $24.740 $11.440 $15.970 Digicel Group Ltd. is a telecommunication service provider incorporated in Bermuda, with offerings in mobile telephone, business solutions, fixed broadband, pay-TV and other related Yield to 24.232% 28.758% 87.207% 25.950% 82.815% 164.695% 77.693% products and services in the Caribbean, South Pacific and Maturity Central America. Digicel’s operations began with its entry into the Jamaican mobile telecommunications market in 2001, Payment Interest Interest is Interest Interest is Interest Interest is Interest is where it became the market leader in less than two years. Dates is paid in paid in is paid in paid in is paid in paid in paid in Digicel Limited (DL) is a holding company controlling the March & April & March & March & March & April & April & Oct operating companies of the Digicel Group. Digicel Group Sept Oct Sept Sept Sept Oct Limited (DGL) is the parent company for DL and was established Maturity March April Sep Dec Sept April April in 2001. DGL currently has over 13.5 million customers across Date 2023 2021 2020 2022 2022 2022 2024 its 32 markets in the Caribbean, Central America and Asian Pacific. Its main markets in terms of revenue generation are Ra tings: Jamaica, Haiti and Trinidad & Tobago. It is renowned for Moody’s Caa2 Caa2 Ca Caa Ca Ca NA delivering the best value and service on the best network. Fitch CCC CCC C CCC C C C Digicel holds the top market position in wireless telecommunications in 22 of its 31 markets. Over the last Outlook Despite Digicel exhibiting its commitment to restructure its debt in efforts to reduce several years, Digicel has expanded its service offering and is leverage and financial costs through its new debt exchange offer, we still maintain a negative outlook for Digicel Group Limited and its subsidiaries as we anticipate that undertaking a business transformation project (Digicel 2030) revenues will continue to trend downwards due lower demands for voice and SMS aimed at reducing operating expenses by centralizing common messaging from telecom providers. Also, the expected outturn in growth in the telecom support functions & reducing management layers. industry on a global scale is just around 2%. As the demand for faster and better quality Digicel International Finance Company is a debt issuing increased the subject of 5G technology comes to the forefront. However, the feasible of the implementation of this technology by telecom providers may not be feasible as the company that operates as a subsidiary of Digicel Group Limited towers are costly and will require large amounts of capital. It is also anticipated that the and is based in St. Lucia. company may experience a decline in revenues as more people are forced to stay home due to the COVID pandemic and are using WIFI instea 1d of mobile data. Bond Analysis: Digicel Group Limited VMWM Research and Stockbroking | April 09, 2020 OVERVIEW OF NEW DEBT EXCHANGE OFFER In efforts to curtail the company’s current high leveraged position, Digicel has chosen to tender an offer to exchange its outstanding debt. This offer will allow the company to extend the date of its near-term maturities, reduce its overall debt and reduce its interest expense. The offer will see existing DGL 2 2022 notes, DGL 2 2024 notes, DGL 1 notes being exchanged for “New DGL0.5 notes” whilst existing DL 2021 notes and DL 2023 notes will be exchanged for New DIFL and New DL notes respectively. These adjustments in capital will see the company reducing its outstanding debt from US$7.0 billion to around US$5.3 billion or by $1.7 billion dollars once the offer receives full participation. The interest payments due in March (DGL 1 &2 DGL2 2022) and April (DGL 2 2024) will be deferred as the company elected to take advantage of a 30-day grace period permitted under its indentures. The adjustment is also anticipated to reduce its annual interest cost by around US$130 million. The expiration date has been extended from April 8, 2020 at 5:00pm (NYC Time) to April 28, 2020 at 11:69pm (NYC Time) to facilitate the addition of US$100 million of borrowings under DIFL’s senior credit facility. Existing Notes Existing Principal Exchange Ratio ProForma Notes Offer Principal Amount ($ Amount ($ millions) millions) DGL 1 Notes 1,000 94% New DGL 0.5 8.0%/2% PIK Secured 941 2024 Notes DGL 2 Notes 937 37% New DGL 0.5 5.0%/3.0% PIK 300 Unsecured 2025 Notes New DGL 0.5 7.0% PIK Convertible 50 Notes Sub-Total 350 DGL 2 2024 Notes 984 25% New DGL 0.5 5.0%/ 3.0% PIK 100 Unsecured 2025 Notes New DGL 0.5 7.0% PIK Convertible 150 Notes Sub-Total 250 DL 2021 Notes 1,300 92% New Incremental DIFL 8.75% 627 Secured 2024 Notes New DIFL 6.0%/7.0% PIK 317 Unsecured 2025 Notes New DIFL 8.0% Subordinated 2026 256 Notes Sub-Total 1200 DL 2023 Notes 925 85% New 8.0% DL 2027 Notes 786 2 Bond Analysis: Digicel Group Limited VMWM Research and Stockbroking | April 09, 2020 FINANCIAL PERFOMANCE & PROJECTIONS (USD ‘000) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Revenues 2,794,110 2,676,656 2,505,029 2,415,920 2,302,212 Operating Costs & Expenses -2,086,304 -1,978,776 -1,900,860 -1,961,780 -1,823,233 Net Income -157,545 -30,246 -36,939 -219,516 -288,186 EBITDA 1,113,083 1,121,830 1,032,461 959,860 961,714 EBITDA Margin (%) 39.84% 41.91% 41.22% 39.73% 41.77% 9 Months Variance 9 Months Ended Dec 31 Ended Dec 2018 31, 2019 Revenue 1,725,269 -1% 1,712,603 Operating Profit 438,220 -17% 365,410 Net Loss -41,376 416% -213.699 Taxation -67,150 26% -84,754 Total Assets 4,287,806 -1% 4,260,539 Cash 96,434 96,434 125,921 Total Liabilities 7,950,322 7% 8,493,558 Free Cash Flow 355,740 31% 465,181 Total Equity -3,662,516 16% -4,233,019 FOR THE 9 MONTHS ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2019: Over the 9-month period ending December 31, 2019 the company’s Revenue decreased marginally by 1% from US$1.725 billion to US$1.712 billion. This decrease was mainly attributed to a 9% decline in revenues from Voice, partially offset by a 6% uptick in revenues from Data which was impacted by a decline in Total Subscribers. From a geographic perspective, revenues fell in Haiti, French West Indies and El Salvador by 14%, 8% and 13% respectively while revenues increased in Jamaica, Trinidad & Tobago, Papua New Guinea and Other Markets by 3%, 5%,4% and 1% respectively. Cost of sales was reduced from US$421.47 million to US$390.67 million or by 7%. This decrease was largely driven by a 5% decline in direct costs associated with the benefits of FX depreciation. Operating Expenses increased from US$865.57 million to US$956.51 million or by 11%. The company benefited from non-recurring insurance proceeds associated with damages from hurricanes Irma and Maria in the prior year. With the adoption of IRS 16, this had a favourable impact on the company’s operating expenses as operating expense would have been around US$30 million higher in the prior year. Net Loss increased from US$41.37 million to US$213.69 million or by 416%. This increase was mainly driven by a US81.66 million-dollar loss from associates; namely Digicel Holdings (DHCAL) which is the holding company of Digicel Panama. 3 Bond Analysis: Digicel Group Limited VMWM Research and Stockbroking | April 09, 2020 FOR THE 9 MONTHS ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2019 CONT’D: Total Assets fell marginally from US$4.28billion to US$4.26billion or by 1% which was largely due to a 18% decline in accounts receivable and prepayments. Total Liabilities increased from US$7.95 billion to US$ 8.4 billion or by 7% which was mainly due to increases in long-term debt primarily reflecting a US$255million increase in DIFL long term debt following the issuance of the DIFL US$600m Senior Secured Bond coupled with a subsequent repayment of the DILF revolving credit and the Term Loan A facility. Revenues by Market 16% 35% 12% 12% 15% 6% 3% Jamaica Haiti Trinidad & Tobago French West Indies El Salvador Papua New Guinea Other Markets Key Metrics 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P 2024P Expected Free Cash Flow 399,167 452,736 424,370 396,957 370,461 Expected Shareholders Equity (4,412,922) (4,541,022) (4,696,552) (4,878,593) (5,086,255) Expected EBITDA Margin 37.72% 39.08% 38.38% 37.66% 36.92% Expected Debt to Equity (x) -1.87 -1.82 -1.76 -1.69 -1.62 Expected Interest Coverage (using 1.064 1.206 1.131 1.058 0.987 FCF) (x) Expected Interest Coverage (using 0.988 1.051 1.017 0.985 0.954 EBIT) (x) 4 Bond Analysis: Digicel Group Limited VMWM Research and Stockbroking | April 09, 2020 Revenues 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 USD'000 1,000,000 500,000 0 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020P 2021P 2022P Net Income 0
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