The Evolution of Retailing in the United States Retailing has evolved in SPURRED BY POP culture, suburbaniza- tion, and increased competition, retail- response to suburbanization, ing in the United States has gone through a major evolution over the past cost-cutting, and price 50 years, changing from a largely urban to a primarily suburban experience. competition. Retailers today confront the traditional challenges of providing convenience, desirable products, selection, and attractive pricing, but they also must contend with the effects of increased purchasing power of children, short- ened retail cycles, increased female workforce participation, and increased competitive pressures. PETER LINNEMAN Children now control more pur- DEBORAH C. MOY 42 ZELL/LURIE REAL ESTATE CENTER chasing power, directly as well as kids went their separate ways and met through their parents and grandparents, for lunch at the food court, each shop- than any previous generation. The cash ping at an average of seven stores. in their hip pockets (which are often at Today, between work and shuttling their knees), combined with increased their children to activities, adults are car ownership, has created a new cate- increasingly destination shoppers. They gory of consumers. Clothing fads have visit an average of only 1.3 stores per always been fleeting, but the popularity trip to the mall, and are back in their period of stores has been made much cars in 76 minutes. Leisurely mall shorter by these young consumers. browsing has become a luxury for all Historically, a chain of stores would except teenagers, making the retail for- generally enjoy a run of popularity of mat of choice for adult shoppers the cat- seven to ten years, but that reign has egory killer. now shrunk to three to five years, since Another factor in the evolution of what is cool for 12- and 13- year-olds is retailing is the perceived increase in passé by the time they turn 16. consumer opportunities. Middle-class Today, brands are cross-sold by mul- consumers are bombarded with ways to tiple retailers, allowing greater synchro- spend their disposable income—resort nization of product reaction cycles. In travel, fine dining, specialty camps for the 1980s, when a fashion trend was kids, and so on. With so many luxury started by Valley Girls in California or items now available, discounts on every- break-dancers in Brooklyn, it spread day shopping generate valued savings, geographically at a slow pace. Today, fed driving consumers to value-oriented by MTV and other youth-oriented sta- stores such as Wal-Mart. This is partic- tions, a new fad is practically instanta- ularly true when budgets are tight and neous, meaning that retailers need a people still strive to maintain the much faster response time. lifestyles to which they have become As more women of all ages partici- accustomed. pate in the workforce and have more disposable income, they have less time for shopping. At the same time, many P ARALLEL EVOLUTIONS women have delegated much of the shopping to their teenage children. In American suburban retailing has evolved the 1980s, going to the mall was a fam- on two related levels: The expansion of ily outing in which Mom, Dad, and the product offerings, that is, what is avail- REVIEW 43 able to the consumer; and the creation of cient way to meet suburban demand was new retail formats, that is, how those to be located where their customers lived products are offered to consumers. Over (and eventually worked). They were slow the last century, people increasingly to get started—in the 1950s, the rate of moved their families to the suburbs. In suburban retail expansion was still slower the Northeast, suburbanization spread than the rate of purchasing power sub- along the train lines, while in areas such urbanization. as Dallas and Los Angeles, the suburbs Suburban retail offerings expanded in followed the freeways. three phases. In the first, retailers met Although by 1950 roughly 45 percent existing demand by providing necessities, of the population lived in the suburbs, such as groceries and everyday items, little retail existed “out there” to service through small stores. In the second them, since few retailers had joined the phase, retailers opened scaled-down ver- exodus to the suburbs. Aside from sions of their downtown stores in this notable exceptions like Sears Roebuck, previously fallow territory. In many ways, Montgomery Ward, Kroger, and A&P, all their decision to open suburban stores of which had freestanding suburban was comparable to companies that ven- stores, retailing remained primarily in tured into global markets in the 1990s. downtowns or in secondary neighbor- Only belatedly did retailers offer a full- hood downtowns. In the 1950s and scale shopping experience via the cre- 1960s retailers realized that the most effi- ation of shopping centers. Figure 1 Population of the U.S. Living in Suburban Areas 100 80 60 40 Percent 20 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Sources: Property and Portfolio Research; PREI 44 ZELL/LURIE REAL ESTATE CENTER Figure 2 Number of U.S. Shopping Centers 50 40 30 20 Thousands 10 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Figure 3 Total Leasable Retail Area in U.S. Shopping Centers 6 5 4 3 2 Billions of sq. ft. 1 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Because the suburbanization of retail malls, super-regional malls, power cen- shopping massively lagged the suburban- ters, and countless strip centers. Not ization of purchasing power during the until roughly 1990 did suburban retail- first half of the twentieth century, subur- ing achieve supply-demand market bal- ban retail supply was much less than ance, and did U.S. retailing become demand. In the 1960s, this condition firmly entrenched as a suburban—rather persisted even as retailers began to move than urban—phenomenon. to the suburbs en masse in response to We estimate that there were roughly the success achieved by pioneering 650,000 suburbanites per center in efforts. In the 1970s and early 1980s, 1950, 22,000 per center in 1960, and suburban retail continued to play catch- approximately 10,000 suburban resi- up through the development of regional dents per center in 1970. In 1970, there REVIEW 45 were only 11,000 shopping centers in the retail model, markets are rapidly sorting United States, even though about 55 per- out the wrong models. cent of the U.S. population (and a much Retailers, in concert with developers, higher share of the purchasing power) have exhibited significant creativity in was in the suburbs. By 1990, there were providing a variety of retail formats. about 36,500 shopping centers, or one Until supply and demand balance was center per 4,600 suburban residents. achieved, identifying the right retail for- Clearly, the last half of the twentieth cen- mat was very much an experimental tury was a period of tremendous catch- process. The result of this experimenta- up for suburban retail supply. This is tion was the proliferation of center loca- reflected in the decline of the growth rate tions, store and center designs, and for the development of new centers, from retailing formats. Neighborhood and roughly 6 percent per annum through community centers, often anchored by 1990 to about 2 percent over the last supermarkets, focused on local thor- decade. oughfares, seeking to provide convenient This equilibrium of suburban retail access and everyday items at low- supply and demand has created a new set overhead costs. In contrast, malls of competitive pressures on the retail sec- anchored by department stores, stand- tor. In the 1980s, mispriced money alone department stores, and stand-alone flowed to developers, many of whom did discount stores targeted major inter- not understand that the high rates of sub- changes, in order to draw households urban product expansion were unsustain- from an extended radius to an all-encom- able. It has been only over the last 10 to passing shopping experience. 12 years that the Darwinian evolutionary process of eliminating the weakest retail- ers, locations, and center designs has THREE RETAIL MODELS begun. And it is a long way from over. During the 40-year catch-up period, Three general models of suburban retail- availability, not quality, was the main ing have emerged: the traditional mer- concern facing suburban retailers. chant; the discounter; and the big box. However, as suburban retail balance was Traditional merchants include supermar- achieved, providing the best quality retail kets and department stores. Their tradi- experience became critical for success; tional model is simple: sell quality goods and just “being there” no longer assured at a substantial mark-up to wholesale success. While there is no single correct prices (that is, at traditional pricing mar- 46 ZELL/LURIE REAL ESTATE CENTER gins). Prior to 1990, when supply- ally loss leaders (though to a lesser demand balance was achieved, tradition- extent) for developers. al merchants dominated suburban retail- Big-box retailers, housed in large ing. Neighborhood centers and regional warehouse-like structures, emerged in malls were developed to meet the expan- the mid-1980s, just as suburban supply sion plans of these retailers. The basic and demand were coming into balance. concept behind these shopping centers They provided goods of comparable was to draw traffic to the center with the quality to traditional retailers, but at brand recognition of the traditional notably lower prices. This was, and con- anchors, and to cluster complementary tinues to be, a particularly attractive stores to maximize sales. In fact, center proposition to the price-conscious con- developers placed so much value on the sumers who had previously shopped at traditional anchor’s ability to draw traffic lower-end department stores and at dis- that they treated anchor tenants as loss- counters, as they could purchase either leaders, often giving away space to the same quality goods at lower prices, or anchors.