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Interim Report and Third Quarter Recommendations Interim Report and Third Quarter Recommendations October 2020 NATIONAL SECURITY COMMISSION ON ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE 1 Commissioners DR. ERIC SCHMIDT Chairman HON. ROBERT O. WORK Vice Chairman SAFRA CATZ DR. STEVE CHIEN HON. MIGNON CLYBURN CHRISTOPHER DARBY DR. KENNETH FORD DR. JOSÉ-MARIE GRIFFITHS DR. ERIC HORVITZ ANDREW JASSY GILMAN LOUIE DR. WILLIAM MARK DR. JASON MATHENY HON. KATHARINA MCFARLAND DR. ANDREW MOORE 2 3 Contents I. Letter from the Commission Co-Chairs…………...................…..6 II. Summary of Third Quarter Recommendations……………….....9 III. Interim Report and Third Quarter Recommendations a. TAB 1 — Strengthening the Triangular Alliance for Artificial Intelligence (AI) Research and Development………………………………….…………..27 b. TAB 2 — Applying Artificial Intelligence for National Security Missions…………………………………..….….62 c. TAB 3 — Train and Recruit AI Talent………………….85 d. TAB 4 — Protect and Build Upon U.S. Technology Advantages………….………….………….……….……138 e. TAB 5 — Marshal Global AI Cooperation & Ethics...…185 i. ANNEX A — Detail on Multilateral “Coalition of Coalitions” Strategy: Engage Multiple Efforts to Achieve Goals………………………………..…...222 ii. ANNEX B — Blueprint for AI Cooperation…….226 iii. ANNEX C — Alignment of NSCAI Key Considerations for the Responsible Development and Fielding of AI with AI Ethics Principles……...…..243 IV. APPENDIX I — Legislative Language…………..……………245 V. APPENDIX II — Funding Chart………………….………….265 4 5 Letter from the Commission Co-Chairs In the past few months, the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution playing out before our eyes has shaken the strategic terrain beneath our feet. The United States is in an AI-charged technology competition fusing national economic competitiveness, great power rivalry, and a fierce contest between authoritarianism and democracy. We are at the beginning of the beginning of this new competition. The principles we establish, the federal investments we make, the national security applications we field, the organizations we build, the partnerships we forge, and the talent we cultivate now will set America’s strategic course. The Commission wants to convey one big idea. The countries, companies, and researchers that win the AI competition—in computing, data, and talent—will be positioned to win a much larger game. AI is accelerating innovation in every scientific and engineering endeavor. The entire innovation base supporting our economy and security will leverage AI. AI is compressing innovation timescales. Once fantastical ideas in areas like biotechnology will become realities in the near future. The arc of steady AI research has become a step function in AI capabilities. Just recently, an AI-powered text generator produced paragraphs of prose as if written by a human. News about progress in brain-computer chip interfaces presages the melding of human thought and machine power. In defense, the U.S. military tested an AI-powered command and control system that shot down a cruise missile with a “smart bullet,” demonstrated that an AI controlled fighter jet could defeat an experienced pilot in a simulated dogfight, and used AI to cut design costs for aircraft through modeling and simulation. Meanwhile our adversaries are not just testing. They have employed AI- generated online personas in disinformation campaigns against us. Against this dizzying backdrop, the Commission has taken an entrepreneurial approach by necessity. This report represents our third quarterly memo as well as our second interim report mandated by Congress. Below we present 66 recommendations flowing from several key ideas. First, we must defend democracies from AI-enabled disinformation and other malign uses of AI by our adversaries. Second, the government should expand and democratize basic AI research—the wellspring of our technological advantages. Third, the government must build a digital ecosystem within national security departments and agencies for AI R&D. Fourth, connecting technologists and operators will be the key to leveraging AI in all national security missions. Fifth, we must close the tech talent deficit by strengthening STEM education, recruiting the best minds from around the world, and training the national security workforce. Sixth, we must build a resilient domestic microelectronics industrial base. Seventh, we will need interconnected strategies for technologies associated with AI including biotechnology and quantum computing. Eighth, we cannot only focus on domestic initiatives in a global competition. We must lead the development of AI technical standards and norms in international forums, and strengthen AI partnerships with allies and partners to build a digital future reflecting our values and protecting our interests. The totality of the recommendations illustrates a key point: Laying out a vision is not enough. A winning strategy demands major muscle movements in and across departments and agencies, and significant executive and legislative action. It requires overcoming the technical, bureaucratic, and human obstacles to change, and driving very specific policies. 6 We believe the United States needs a new White House-led technology council to elevate AI- driven technology developments to the center of national decision-making, and a technology advisor to lead a new technology competitiveness strategy that integrates the complex interplay between technology, national security, and economic policies. The Commission still has much work to do before delivering its final recommendations in March 2021. Looking under the hood of the vast national security enterprise yields frustration but not hopelessness. Innovators throughout our government and in the private sector and civil society are working hard. Leaders in Congress, the Executive Branch, and across the United States are eager to act. The Commission is determined to help them succeed. _____________________________ 7 8 Summary of Third Quarter Recommendations Line of Effort (LOE) 1: Invest in AI Research and Development (R&D) Progress to Date: Research remains the foundation of America’s technological leadership, and the government must make the investments to solidify this foundation for artificial intelligence (AI). In the First Quarter (Q1), the Commission recommended doubling non- defense AI R&D funding, focusing investments on six priority research areas, and launching a pilot of a National AI Research Resource. In the Second Quarter (Q2), the Commission examined the Department of Defense (DoD) research enterprise and recommended ways to overcome bureaucratic and resource constraints to accelerate national security-focused AI R&D. TAB 1 — Strengthening the Triangular Alliance for AI R&D Focus: America’s ability to harness innovation is predicated on a rich interplay between academia, government, and industry—and organizations that straddle those lines—where each sector benefits from and relies on the advances of the others. To support the level of AI research, development and application that will underpin future U.S. technological leadership, the government must take action to strengthen the alliance by exploring new mechanisms to support research and enable partnerships with industry. Objective: In order to strengthen the triangular alliance and position the United States for an AI-enabled future, the Commission proposes actions to address three priority issue areas: 1) Supporting the growth of nationwide AI R&D through novel funding mechanisms; 2) Posturing the defense and intelligence AI R&D communities to address national-security specific problems and capabilities through establishment of a modern digital ecosystem; and 3) Expanding the role of industry in the DoD’s AI R&D to pursue next-generation capabilities. Issue 1: Supporting AI Research through Novel Funding Mechanisms Recommendation 1: Create an AI Innovator Award Program to Invest in Top Talent. Foster high-risk, exploratory research through the launch of a program that makes long- term, high-value awards that provide top researchers the flexibility to pursue big ideas without prescribed outcomes. Recommendation 2: Invest in Research Teams Pursuing Transformative Ideas in AI. Establish a team award that supports multi-disciplinary, bold research initiatives to apply AI to solve complex problems or pursue use-inspired basic research efforts. Recommendation 3: Create AI Testbeds to Serve the Academic and Industry Research Communities. Develop a set of national, domain-specific AI testbeds to provide ready 9 infrastructure, benchmarking standards, and build communities of discovery and practice around application areas for AI that are in the public interest. Recommendation 4: Support AI Data Set Curation and Maintenance. Start a program to curate, host, maintain, and make publicly accessible complex, exemplar data sets to help drive research progress in AI and its application to other fields of study. Recommendation 5: Launch an AI Research Challenge. Open a Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) Grand Challenge around an ambitious AI-enabled goal that would focus on accelerating progress on third wave AI capabilities and advancing technology that could plausibly drive future defense capabilities, such as human-robotics teaming and human-AI collaboration. Issue 2: Creating a Digital Ecosystem for National Security AI R&D It is necessary to equip researchers and developers within the national security community with the services, tools, and environments necessary to accelerate innovation in AI. This should be accomplished through a
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