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General Climate Recent Climate Trends UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Chile A. Karmalkar1, C. McSweeney1, M. New1,2 and G. Lizcano1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk General Climate Chile extends from tropics down almost to Antarctica and is located on the west side of the Andes M E -S conditions. The north of the country experiences very hot and arid conditions (Atacama Desert) whereas the climate in central Chile is Mediterranean, with cool, wet winters between April and S A C C C I me south the weather is cold and wet most of the year. Annual rainfall ranges from no recorded precipitation in some of the north to 500-1000 mm in south-central Chile, to more than 4000 mm in some southern regions. The most important factors that control the climate in Chile are the Pacific Anticyclone, the southern circumpolar low pressure area, the cold Humboldt Current, and the Andes Mountains. The Humboldt Current together with the prevailing south-westerly winds creates a temperate climate in most of northern and central Chile, even in areas that lie in tropical latitudes. Recent Climate Trends Temperature Mean annual temperature does not show significant trend in Chile since 1960. Mean SON C 1960, at an average rate of C The frequency of hot nights has increased significantly since 1960 in every season. T C 5.6% of nights) between 1960 and 2006. The rate of increase is very similar in all seasons. Chile Precipitation No significant change has been observed in mean rainfall over Chile since 1960. The proportion of rainfall falling in heavy events has decreased by 2.2% annually between 1960 and 2006. GCM Projections of Future Climate Temperature T C C T C o The projected rate of warming is similar throughout the year, but warming is C C and southern Chile. All projections indicate substantial increases in the frequency of days and nights that are 1 in current climate. o A -26% of days by the 2060s, and 20-37% of days by the 2090s. o N -99 are projected to occur on 15-26% of nights by the 2060s and 18-38% of nights by the 2090s. Nights that are hot for each season are projected to increase most rapidly in DJF, occurring on 26-61% of nights by the 2090s. All projections indicate decreases in the frequency of days and nights that are considered 2 in current climate. Precipitation Projections of mean annual rainfall from different models in the ensemble are broadly consistent in indicating decreases in rainfall for Chile. Ensemble median values for all seasons are negative. o Annual projections vary between -5 to +2% by the 2090s with ensemble median changes of -3 to -5% when averaged over the entire country. o Projected decrease is significantly higher in central Chile S seasons and is over 40% by the 2090s in SON under the A2 scenario. 1 H ays or nights in current climate of that region and season. 2 C of that region or season. Chile The proportion of total rainfall that falls in heavy3 events shows very small or no change in the model projections. Maximum 1- and 5-day rainfalls do not show any consistent change in model projections under the future scenarios. Additional Regional Climate Change Information Complex topography in this part of the world means that local variations in response to global warming, particularly precipitation, are likely to be large and many areas may vary from the regional trend (Christensen et al., 2007). The course resolution of the GCMs is also inadequate to capture local variations in climate of Chile due to its complex topography and elongated shape. For further information see Christensen et al. IPCC W G I ‘ The P S B, Chapter 11 (Regional Climate projections): Sections 11.6 (South and Central America). 3 A H ily rainfall total which exceeds the threshold that is exceeded on 5% of rainy days in current the climate of that region and season. Chile Data Summary Observed Observed Projected changes by the Projected changes by the 2060s Projected changes by the Mean Trend 2030s 2090s 1970-99 1960-2006 Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max Temperature (change in C C C C C C C C decade) A2 0.5 0.7 1 1.3 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.8 3.1 Annual 8.4 -0.06 A1B 0.5 0.8 1 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.8 2.4 2.9 B1 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.2 1.7 2 A2 0.5 0.8 1 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.3 3 3.4 DJF 12.4 -0.06 A1B 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.8 2 2 2.5 3.1 B1 0.3 0.8 1 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.7 2 A2 0.3 0.6 1 1.3 1.5 2 2.1 2.8 3.3 MAM 8.8 -0.1 A1B 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.9 1.7 2.4 3 B1 0.3 0.7 1 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.1 1.6 2.1 A2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.8 3.1 JJA 4.3 0 A1B 0.3 0.7 1 1 1.6 1.9 1.7 2.4 2.7 B1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.6 1 1.6 2.1 A2 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.8 2 2.8 3.1 SON 8.2 -0.12* A1B 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.9 1.8 2.5 2.9 B1 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.1 1.7 1.9 Precipitation (change in (mm per mm per Change in mm per month Change in mm per month Change in mm per month month) decade) A2 -6 -1 0 -8 -3 0 -12 -5 0 Annual 53.7 -0.1 A1B -4 -1 1 -7 -3 1 -12 -3 1 B1 -6 -1 2 -6 -2 0 -4 -2 0 A2 -8 -2 4 -12 -4 -1 -14 -8 2 DJF 35.3 -0.7 A1B -9 -2 0 -8 -5 1 -14 -6 3 B1 -6 -2 4 -10 -3 1 -12 -2 3 A2 -7 -2 2 -9 -2 3 -18 -4 2 MAM 58 -0.3 A1B -5 -2 4 -8 -3 3 -15 -3 2 B1 -5 -1 6 -9 -3 3 -8 -2 1 A2 -8 0 5 -8 0 6 -12 -2 6 JJA 80.9 0.2 A1B -5 0 3 -9 0 5 -8 -1 4 B1 -7 0 6 -6 -1 5 -5 -1 5 A2 -6 -2 0 -6 -4 1 -15 -4 4 SON 40.7 0.5 A1B -7 -2 3 -7 -2 2 -13 -5 6 B1 -9 -2 2 -9 -1 3 -11 -2 3 Precipitation (%) (mm per (change in % % Change % Change % Change month) per decade) A2 -6 -1 0 -9 -3 0 -14 -5 0 Annual 53.7 -0.1 A1B -5 -2 2 -8 -3 1 -13 -4 2 B1 -7 -1 3 -6 -2 0 -5 -3 0 A2 -10 -2 7 -14 -7 -1 -19 -9 3 DJF 35.3 -1.9 A1B -11 -3 0 -12 -6 2 -18 -8 4 B1 -13 -3 4 -14 -5 3 -14 -3 4 A2 -9 -2 3 -13 -4 3 -20 -6 3 MAM 58 -0.5 A1B -8 -3 5 -9 -4 3 -17 -5 3 B1 -6 -1 7 -10 -3 4 -11 -3 1 A2 -8 -1 6 -11 0 8 -15 -1 6 JJA 80.9 0.3 A1B -7 0 4 -8 0 8 -8 -1 6 B1 -6 0 6 -6 -1 7 -6 -1 5 A2 -7 -2 1 -10 -7 1 -20 -6 4 SON 40.7 1.1 A1B -10 -3 6 -10 -4 2 -15 -7 5 B1 -10 -3 4 -10 -2 3 -14 -4 3 Chile Observed Observed Projected changes by the Projected changes by the 2060s Projected changes by the Mean Trend 2030s 2090s 1970-99 1960-2006 Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max Change in % frequency Future % frequency Future % frequency Frequency per decade Frequency of Hot Days (TX90p) A2 **** **** **** 21 23 24 26 32 37 Annual 9.7 -0.31 A1B **** **** **** 20 23 26 23 29 36 B1 **** **** **** 17 19 21 20 21 27 A2 **** **** **** 27 32 34 44 49 54 DJF 9.8 0.11 A1B **** **** **** 29 30 36 36 42 51 B1 **** **** **** 22 24 28 27 30 37 A2 **** **** **** 24 27 29 32 39 47 MAM 9.8 -0.56 A1B **** **** **** 22 27 32 27 35 45 B1 **** **** **** 19 22 25 21 26 33 A2 **** **** **** 24 27 35 34 41 57 JJA 10.3 -0.01 A1B **** **** **** 21 28 36 30 37 52 B1 **** **** **** 18 23 25 22 27 34 A2 **** **** **** 22 25 32 31 38 50 SON 9.9 0.23 A1B **** **** **** 22 24 32 27 34 43 B1 **** **** **** 19 20 25 22 24 32 Frequency of Hot Nights (TN90p) A2 **** **** **** 20 23 25 28 32 38 Annual 11 1.21* A1B **** **** **** 19 23 26 23 30 36 B1 **** **** **** 15 19 21 18 22 26 A2 **** **** **** 28 32 39 40 49 61 DJF 10.6 1.24* A1B **** **** **** 25 33 42 34 44 55 B1 **** **** **** 21 27 30 26 31 39 A2 **** **** **** 22 27 32 30 40 46 MAM 11.2 1.12* A1B **** **** **** 20 28 31 24 38 44 B1 **** **** **** 16 21 24 20 26 31 A2 **** **** **** 20 26 36 32 41 48 JJA 11.2 1.40* A1B **** **** **** 22 27 36 25 38 46 B1 **** **** **** 20 22 27 20 25 36 A2 **** **** **** 23 29 31 37 41 48 SON 11 1.42* A1B **** **** **** 24 26 30 31 36 44 B1 **** **** **** 19 22 23 24 26 31 Frequency of Cold Days (TX10p) A2 **** **** **** 2 4 4 1 2 3 Annual 10.3 0.05 A1B **** **** **** 2 4 5 1 3 4 B1 **** **** **** 4 5 6 3 4 5 A2 **** **** **** 1 2 2 0 1 1 DJF 10.8 -0.24 A1B **** **** **** 2 3 3 0 1 2 B1 **** **** **** 2 3 4 2 3 4 A2 **** **** **** 2 3 4 1 2 3 MAM 10.5 0.48 A1B **** **** **** 2 4 5 1 2 3 B1 **** **** **** 3 4 6 2 3 4 A2 **** **** **** 2 3 3 0 1 2 JJA 10.3 -0.15 A1B **** **** **** 1 3 4 0 1 3 B1 **** **** **** 3 4 6 2 3 4 A2 **** **** **** 1 3 4 0 2 3 SON 10 -0.33 A1B **** **** **** 1 3 4 0 2 3 B1 **** **** **** 3 4 5 2 3 4 Frequency of Cold Nights (TN10p) A2 **** **** **** 3 4 4 1 2 2 Annual 9.7 -1.05* A1B **** **** **** 3 4 5 1 3 3 B1 **** **** **** 4 5 6 3 4 5 A2 **** **** **** 1 2 3 0 1 2 DJF 9.6 -1.32* A1B **** **** **** 1 2 3 0 1 2 B1 **** **** **** 3 3 5 1 2 4 A2 **** **** **** 2 3 4 1 1 3 MAM 9.6 -1.31* A1B **** **** **** 2 3 4 1 2 3 B1 **** **** **** 3 4 6 2 4 4 A2 **** **** **** 2 3 4 1 1 2 JJA 10.2 -0.87* A1B **** **** **** 2 3 4 1 2 3 B1 **** **** **** 3 4 6 2 3 4 A2 **** **** **** 2 3 4 0 1 2 SON 9.8 -0.79* A1B **** **** **** 2 3 4 1 2 3 B1 **** **** **** 3 4 5 2 3 4 Chile Observed Observed Projected changes by the Projected changes by the Projected changes by the Mean Trend 2030s 2060s 2090s 1970-99 1960-2006 Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max % total rainfall falling in Heavy Events (R95pct) Change in % % Change in % Change in % per decade A2 **** **** **** -1 0 2 -3 1 4 Annual 17.6 -2.20* A1B **** **** **** -2 0 3 0 1 3 B1 **** **** **** 0 0 1 -1 0 3 A2 **** **** **** -6 0 2 -4 0 3 DJF **** **** A1B **** **** **** -5 0 3 -6 0 5 B1 **** **** **** -3 0 3 -4 0 3 A2 **** **** **** -3 0 3 -3 1 5 MAM **** **** A1B **** **** **** -3 0 2 -3 0 3 B1 **** **** **** -2 0 2 -2 0 4 A2 **** **** **** -4 0 4 -9 2 10 JJA **** **** A1B **** **** **** -3 0 7 -7 0 8 B1 **** **** **** -4 0 4 -3 0 4 A2 **** **** ****
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