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The Changing El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Associated Climate Extremes

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The Changing El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Associated Climate Extremes 1 The Changing El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Associated Climate Extremes Jin‐Yi Yu1, Xin Wang2, Song Yang3,4, Houk Paek1, and Mengyan Chen2 ABSTRACT The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most powerful climate phenomena that produce p rofound global impacts. Extensive research since the 1970s has resulted in a theoretical framework capable of explaining the observed properties and impacts of the ENSO and predictive models. However, during the most recent two decades there have been significant changes observed in the properties of ENSO that suggest r evisions are required in the existing theoretical framework developed primarily for the canonical ENSO. The observed changes include a shift in the location of maximum sea surface temperature variability, an increased importance in the underlying dynamics of coupled ocean‐atmosphere process in the subtropical Pacific, and different remote atmospheric teleconnection patterns that give rise to distinct climate extremes. The causes of these recent changes in ENSO are still a matter of debate but have been attributed to both global warming and natural climate variability involving interactions between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The possible future changes of ENSO properties have also been suggested using climate model projections. 1.1. INTRODUCTION characteristic of ENSO, a tremendous amount of effort has been expended by the research community to describe El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a prominent and understand the complex nature of this phenomenon climate phenomenon in the tropical Pacific that can dis­ and its underlying generation mechanisms. By the 1990s, rupt global atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns the effort had led to the developments of successful theo­ and exert profound impacts on global climate and socio­ retical frameworks that could explain the major features economic activities. Since Bjerknes [1969] first recognized observed during ENSO events [Neelin et al., 1998] and that ocean‐atmosphere coupling was a fundamental useful forecast systems had been formulated to predict ENSO evolution with significant lead times of up to three seasons [Latif et al., 1998]. The typical ENSO impacts 1 Department of Earth System Science, University of in various parts of the globe had also been extensively California, Irvine, California, USA examined and documented. Through these efforts, it was 2 State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South also recognized that ENSO properties were not the same China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China among events and could change from one decade to 3 School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat‐sen University, another. The diversity of ENSO characteristics attracted GuangZhou, Guangdong, China renewed interest at the beginning of the 21st century (see 4 Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change Capotondi et al. [2015], for a summary of these efforts), and Natural Disaster Studies when it became obvious that the central location of the Climate Extremes: Patterns and Mechanisms, Geophysical Monograph 226, First Edition. Edited by S.-Y. Simon Wang, Jin-Ho Yoon, Christopher C. Funk, and Robert R. Gillies. © 2017 American Geophysical Union. Published 2017 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 3 4 FORCINGS OF CLIMATE EXTREMES sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the SST gradient along the equator by taking the differ­ ENSO appeared to be moving from the tropical eastern ence between normalized Niño‐1 + 2 (10°S–0°, 80°–90°W) Pacific near the South American coast to locations near and Niño‐4 (5°S–5°N, 160°E–150°W) SST indices to help the International Dateline in the tropical central Pacific. discriminate the different SST evolutions. Their study Most of the El Niño events that have occurred so far in implies that different types of ENSO may be better iden­ the 21st century developed primarily in the central Pacific tified by contrasting SST anomalies between the eastern [Lee and McPhaden, 2010; Yu et al., 2012b; Yu et al., and central Pacific. A similar conclusion was reached by 2015a; Yeh et al., 2015]. The fact that El Niño can some­ Yu and Kao [2007] in their analysis of the persistence times occur in the eastern Pacific, sometimes in the b arrier of Niño indices in the central‐to‐eastern Pacific central Pacific, and sometimes simultaneously in both (i.e., Niño‐1 + 2, Niño‐3, Niño‐3.4 (5°S–5°N, 120°–170°W), portions of the Pacific has suggested that there may exist and Niño‐4 SST indices). They found different decadal more than one type of ENSO, whose generation mecha­ changes between the indices in the equatorial central and nisms and associated climate extremes may be different. eastern Pacific. They also found that the decadal changes The changes in ENSO observed during the recent d ecades in ocean heat content variations along the equatorial have motivated the research community to revisit the Pacific coincide with the decadal changes in the SST per­ conventional views of ENSO properties, dynamics, and sistence barriers in the eastern Pacific, but not with those global impacts. in the central Pacific. This finding led them to suggest that there are two types of ENSO: An Eastern‐Pacific 1.2. CHANGES IN ENSO PROPERTIES (EP) type located primarily in the tropical eastern Pacific and whose generation mechanism involves equatorial 1.2.1. Flavors of ENSO thermocline variations, and a Central‐Pacific (CP) type located in the central tropical Pacific and whose genera­ Slow or interdecadal changes have been observed in tion is less sensitive to thermocline variations. A detailed ENSO properties, including its intensity, period, and comparison of these two types of ENSO was presented in propagation direction [Gu and Philander, 1995; Wang and Kao and Yu [2009], where they identified the spatial struc­ Wang, 1996; Torrence and Webster, 1999; An and Wang, ture, temporal evolution, and underlying dynamics of 2000; Fedorov and Philander, 2000; Wang and An, 2001; these two types of events. While this “two types of Timmermann, 2003; An and Jin, 2004; and many others]. ENSO” point of view is adopted in this chapter, it should The amplitude of ENSO‐associated SST anomalies, for be noted that debate remains (for example, see the discus­ example, was found to be stronger at the beginning and sion in Capotondi et al. [2015]) as to whether these two the end of the twentieth century, but weaker in between types are really dynamically distinct. [Gu and Philander, 1995; Wang and Wang, 1996]. The Examples of the EP and CP types of ENSO are shown propagation direction of ENSO SST anomalies has also in Figure 1.1, which displays the SST anomaly patterns alternated between eastward, westward, and standing during the peak phase of the 1977–1978 and 1997–1998 during the past few decades [Wang and An, 2001; An and El Niño events. During the 1997–1998 El Niño (Fig. 1.1a), Jin, 2004]. Its recurrence frequency changed from about 2 SST anomalies were mostly located in the eastern part of to 3 yr before 1975 to a longer frequency of 4 to 6 yr after­ the tropical Pacific, extending from the South American ward [An and Wang, 2000]. In recent decades, one of the coast around 80°W to 160°W, covering the Niño‐1 + 2 most noticeable changes in ENSO properties has been the and Niño‐3 regions. During the 1977–1978 El Niño displacement of the central location of ENSO SST (Fig. 1.1b), SST anomalies were mostly concentrated in anomalies [Larkin and Harrison, 2005; Ashok et al., 2007; the equatorial central Pacific from 160°E to 120°W, cov­ Kao and Yu, 2009; Kug et al., 2009]. ENSO is character­ ering the Niño‐3.4 and Niño‐4 regions. Some early stud­ ized by interannual SST variations in the equatorial ies had already noticed the existence of a group of ENSO eastern and central Pacific. In the canonical ENSO events events that developed in the central Pacific around the portrayed by Rasmusson and Carpenter [1982], SST International Dateline [e.g., Weare et al., 1976; Fu et al., anomalies first occur near the South American coast and 1986; Hoerling and Kumar, 2002; Larkin and Harrison, then spread westward along the equator. However, ENSO 2005a]. Larkin and Harrison [2005a] suggested that this events characterized by SST anomalies primarily in the group of ENSO events can produce different impacts equatorial central Pacific, and which spread eastward on the US climate from conventional ENSO events and [An and Wang, 2000] also occur. Trenberth and Stepaniak referred to them as the Dateline El Niño. Ashok et al. [2001] recognized that the different SST evolutions of [2007] also focused on this group of ENSO events and ENSO events cannot be fully described with a single termed them El Niño Modoki. Furthermore, Wang and index such as the Niño‐3 (5°S–5°N, 90°–150°W) SST Wang [2013] classified El Niño Modoki into two sub­ index. They defined a trans‐Niño index, which measures types: El Niño Modoki I and El Niño Modoki II because THE CHANGING EL NIÑO–SOUTHERN Oscillation ANd Associated Climate EXTREMES 5 (a) (b) Nov 1997–Jan 1998 Nov 1977–Jan 1978 30°N 30°N 15°N 15°N 0° 0° 15°S 15°S 30°S 30°S 120°E 150°E 180° 150°W 120°W 90°W 120°E 150°E 180° 150°W 120°W 90°W (c) (d) Eastern–Pacific (EP) ENSO Central–Pacific (CP) ENSO 30°N 30°N 15°N 15°N 0° 0° 15°S 15°S 30°S 30°S 120°E 150°E 180° 150°W 120°W 90°W 120°E 150°E 180° 150°W 120°W 90°W Figure 1.1 SST anomalies during the peak phase (November–January) of (a) the 1997–1998 El Niño event and (b) the 1977–1978 El Niño event.
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