CATHOLICS AND US POLITICS AFTER THE 2016 ELECTIONS Understanding the “Swing Vote” EDITED BY MARIE GAYTE, BLANDINE CHELINI-PONT, AND MARK J. ROZELL Palgrave Studies in Religion, Politics, and Policy Series editors Ted G. Jelen University of Nevada, Las Vegas Las Vegas, NV, USA Mark J. Rozell George Mason University Fairfax, VA, USA A generation ago, many social scientists regarded religion as an anachronism, whose social, economic, and political importance would inevitably wane and disappear in the face of the inexorable forces of modernity. Of course, nothing of the sort has occurred; indeed, the public role of religion is resurgent in US domestic politics, in other nations, and in the international arena. Today, religion is widely acknowledged to be a key variable in candidate nominations, platforms, and elections; it is recognized as a major infuence on domestic and foreign policies. National religious movements as diverse as the Christian Right in the United States and the Taliban in Afghanistan are important factors in the internal politics of particular nations. Moreover, such transna- tional religious actors as Al-Qaida, Falun Gong, and the Vatican have had important effects on the politics and policies of nations around the world. Palgrave Studies in Religion, Politics, and Policy serves a growing niche in the dis- cipline of political science. This subfeld has proliferated rapidly during the past two decades, and has generated an enormous amount of scholarly studies and journalistic coverage. In 2006, the journal Politics and Religion was created; in addition, works relating to religion and politics have been the subject of many articles in more general academic journals. The number of books and monographs on religion and politics has increased tremendously. In the past, many social scientists dismissed religion as a key variable in politics and government. This series casts a broad net over the subfeld, providing opportunities for scholars at all levels to publish their works with Palgrave. The series publishes monographs in all subfelds of political science, including American Politics, Public Policy, Public Law, Comparative Politics, International Relations, and Political Theory. The principal focus of the series is the public role of religion. “Religion” is con- strued broadly to include public opinion, religious institutions, and the legal frame- works under which religious politics are practiced. The “dependent variable” in which we are interested is politics, defned broadly to include analyses of the public sources and consequences of religious belief and behavior. These would include matters of public policy, as well as variations in the practice of political life. We welcome a diverse range of methodological perspectives, provided that the approaches taken are intellectually rigorous. The series does not deal with works of theology, in that arguments about the validity or utility of religious beliefs are not a part of the series focus. Similarly, the authors of works about the private or personal consequences of religious belief and behavior, such as personal happiness, mental health, or family dysfunction, should seek other outlets for their writings. Although historical perspectives can often illuminate our understanding of modern political phenomena, our focus in the Religion, Politics, and Policy series is on the relationship between the sacred and the political in contemporary societies. More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/14594 Marie Gayte · Blandine Chelini-Pont Mark J. Rozell Editors Catholics and US Politics After the 2016 Elections Understanding the “Swing Vote” Editors Marie Gayte Mark J. Rozell Université de Toulon George Mason University Toulon, Var, France Fairfax, VA, USA Blandine Chelini-Pont Aix-Marseille University Marseille, Bouches-du-Rhône, France Palgrave Studies in Religion, Politics, and Policy ISBN 978-3-319-62261-3 ISBN 978-3-319-62262-0 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-62262-0 Library of Congress Control Number: 2017944710 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2018 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifcally the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microflms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. 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Cover image: © Chip Somodevilla/Staff Printed on acid-free paper This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland CONTENTS 1 Introduction: The “Catholic Vote” in the USA 1 Mark J. Rozell Part I Political Parties and Ideologies 2 Catholic Patterns in the American Left 23 Amandine Barb 3 Catholic Colonization of the American Right 43 Blandine Chelini-Pont 4 Catholics and Evangelicals: Does Donald Trump Mean the End of the Religious Right? 63 Neil J. Young Part II The Bishops and the Holy See 5 The US Catholic Bishops: From Separationism to Public Intervention 85 Marie Gayte v vi CONTENTS 6 The Holy See and the Catholic Community in the 2016 Presidential Election 105 Gerald P. Fogarty S.J. Part III Catholics and US Elections 7 The Catholic Vote in the Election of Donald J. Trump 129 Douglas W. Kmiec 8 A Catholic Latino Vote? 161 Olivier Richomme 9 “Can We Get the Catholic Vote?” the Effects of Catholic Running Mates in Presidential Elections 193 Ted G. Jelen 10 Catholics and the 2016 Elections 209 Mark M. Gray Index 221 EDITORS AND CONTRIBUTORS About the Editors Marie Gayte is an Associate Professor of US history at Université de Toulon, France. Blandine Chelini-Pont is a Professor of Contemporary History at Aix-Marseille University, France. Mark J. Rozell is the Dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government and the Ruth D. and John T. Hazel Chair in Public Policy at George Mason University, Virginia, USA. Contributors Amandine Barb is a Postdoctoral scholar in Theology at Humboldt University, Berlin, Germnay. Gerald P. Fogarty, S.J is William R. Kenan, Jr., Professor in Religious Studies and History at the University of Virginia, USA. Mark M. Gray is the Director of the Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate at Georgetown University, USA. Ted G. Jelen is a Professor of political science at University of Nevada, Las Vegas, USA. vii viii EDITORS AND CONTRIBUTORS Douglas W. Kmiec, US Ambassador (ret.), is Caruso Family Chair in Constitutional Law & Human Rights at Pepperdine University, California, USA. Olivier Richomme is a Professor of American studies at University of Lyon, France. Neil J. Young is an affliated scholar in the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, Virginia, USA. LIST OF FIGURES Fig. 8.1 Presidential vote by affliation and race 163 Fig. 8.2 Political views of Latinos according to religious affliation 2014 165 Fig. 8.3 Percentage of Catholics among Latinos 2010–2013 166 Fig. 8.4 Latino religious affliation by age 2013 166 Fig. 8.5 Ethno-racial groups among Catholics 2013 167 Fig. 8.6 Estimation of total numbers of Latino electorate 169 Fig. 8.7 Estimated Latino electorate impact as percentage of general electorate 170 Fig. 8.8 Estimation of total number of Latinos not voting, in millions 171 Fig. 8.9 Percentage of foreign-born Latinos 172 Fig. 8.10 Median age by racial/ethnic group 173 Fig. 8.11 2016 estimation of generation percentage in electorate by racial/ethnic group 174 Fig. 8.12 2012 registration and turnout rate by age group 175 Fig. 8.13 Latino registration rate by presidential election year 175 Fig. 8.14 Turnout rate by racial/ethnic group 176 Fig. 8.15 Electoral participation per ethno-racial group 177 Fig. 8.16 Latino population concentration per state, 2015 census estimates 178 Fig. 8.17 Latino population and voting age population in presidential swing states 2015 179 Fig. 8.18 Florida Latino population breakdown by national ancestry 2016 180 Fig. 8.19 Evolution of composition of the Florida Latino population 180 ix x LIST OF FIGURES Fig. 8.20 Evolution of partisan affliation of newly registered Latinos 2006–2016 181 Fig. 8.21 Florida Anglo population concentration by county 2010 census 182 Fig. 8.22 Florida presidential election results 2012 by county 183 Fig. 8.23 Pew Research Center Poll August–September 2016 185 Fig. 10.1 The Bellwether: Election results for Catholic voters in the US, 2004–2016 210 Fig. 10.2 If the 2016 presidential election were between Hillary Clinton for the Democrats and Donald Trump for the Republicans, would you vote for Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, someone else, or probably not vote? 212 Fig. 10.3 Catholic vote intention in IBD/TIPP presidential election tracking poll, Oct. 19–Nov. 8, 2016 215 Fig. 10.4 Catholic vote for president, 2016 216 LIST OF TABLES Table 9.1 Multivariate models of presidential vote, by presence of Catholic vice-presidential candidate (Logistic Regression) 199 Table 10.1 Ranked in top four most important issues in choosing a candidate 213 Table 10.2 State-level Catholic Presidential vote, 2016 217 xi CHAPTER 1 Introduction: The “Catholic Vote” in the USA Mark J.