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A N N U Al R Ep O Rt a N Alysis FY21 Thermax

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A N N U Al R Ep O Rt a N Alysis FY21 Thermax Thermax SELL Banking on strategic transition towards clean energy CMP Rs 1,422 Thermax (TMX) FY21 AR emphasizes on company’s strategic plans to shift Target / Downside Rs 1,205 / 15% its dependence from Sunset to Sunrise industries (Clean Energy/ Water) BSE Sensex 52,861 with ESG as a center stage. Notably, the change in leadership has instilled a new belief as company is looking to play a decisive role in bridging the NSE Nifty 15,854 gap between energy availability and sustainability. TMX is aligning its Scrip Details product offerings to green energy needs (Mobility applications, Solar film, Equity / FV Rs 225mn / Rs 2 Fuel cells, Waste to Energy), though questions on initial capital requirement, technology risk, potential scalable opportunities & execution Market Cap Rs 169bn timeline remain unanswered. Though TMX witnessed demand green US$ 2bn shoots from Metal & Cement sectors in H2FY21, energy segment outlook 52-week High/Low Rs 1,578/Rs 704 for FY22 remains challenging as demand continues to be uncertain in the backdrop of the second wave of Covid. Environment segment expected to Avg. Volume (no) 73,295 benefit from increased enforcement of emission norms and regulatory NSE Symbol THERMAX discharge norms. Chemical Segment outlook remains positive & TMX is Bloomberg Code TMX IN scouting for acquisition opportunities which will help in enhancing its Shareholding Pattern Mar'21(%) geographical presence. We retain ‘SELL’ rating with a TP of Rs1,205 given the hyper-rich valuations (56x/ 41x at FY22E/ FY23E EPS vs. LT avg. P/E of Promoters 62.0 28x) & unfavorable risk-reward ratio. MF/Banks/FIs 14.6 FIIs 12.5 Incubating new technologies in the evolving sphere of energy shift Public / Others 10.9 The increasing demand for energy efficiency and reducing carbon footprints has placed TMX in a sweet spot. The company’s solutions in Thermax Relative to Sensex waste to energy, waste heat recovery, and renewables for domestic and international players, have positioned it ideally to harness the opportunities in these areas. To remain ahead of the curve, management 170 has undertaken serval strategic initiative which are still in nascent stage, i) Fuel Cells for Indian Navy – the company has supplied fuel cell stacks for 150 India’s home-grown Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) system to be used in submarines, ii) T-HVAC (Mobility application) – utilizes exhaust gas from 130 heavy vehicles, to cool their cabins in summer and heat them in winter, iii) atoM - Water and Waste Solutions (WWS) to treat sewage water efficiently 110 in confined spaces, iv) Increasing Biofuel’s share in India Energy Mix by utilizing carbon-neutral technology, and v) Partnered with Power Roll to 90 develop the Solar film market in India. Annual Report Analysis FY21 70 Bright prospects for Chemical business Jul-21 Jul-20 Oct-20 Apr-21 Jan-21 Jun-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Aug-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Chemicals business had remained resilient amid challenging environment May-21 given the better product mix (specialty resins), cost controls & low price of styrene. Notably, the manufacturing capacity has been ramped up to TMX SENSEX 20000 m3 per year (from 10,000 m3 in FY20) with commissioning of Phase II of resin production at Dahej plant. TMX is focusing on to, i) Expand market presence and broaden the portfolio of specialty resins, ii) Widen the market reach of water treatment chemicals, by focusing on VP - Research: Umesh Raut digitalization and remote monitoring of water treatment systems, iii) Tel: +91 22 40969753 Explore partnerships for scaling waterproofing and flooring segment. E-mail: [email protected] Management believes near term margins will be subdued due to ramp up of standard resins, but over longer term share of specialty chemicals should improve margins profile. Associate: Tanay Rasal Tel: +91 22 40969700 Healthy OCF in FY21 E-mail: [email protected] TMX’s operating cash flow improved to Rs7.7bn in FY21 (vs Rs3.3bn in FY20) mainly due to negative working capital on the back of better collections & increase in creditor’s days from 61 in FY20 to 87 in FY21. Contingent liabilities as % of net worth jumped from 8% in FY20 to 14% in FY21, mainly due to sharp jump in legal dispute claims while provision also increased by 26% YoY mainly due to higher warranties. July 14, 2021 Annual Report Macro View Ashish Bhandari was appointed as the Joint Managing Director effective April 7, Change in Management 2020, and later as the Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer effective September 1, 2020. The Board of the company comprises nine directors - one non-executive and non- Independent Director independent chairperson, one non-executive director, one executive director and six independent directors (out of whom one is a woman independent director). No changes. Auditors SRBC & Co. LLP continue to be the auditors of the company Pledged Shares No pledged shares during the year Rating Agency Type of instrument Rating Credit Ratings CRISIL Ltd Long-term Rating CRISIL AA+/Stable Short-term Rating CRISIL A1+ Covid-19 dominated the major part of 2020, resulting in periodic lockdowns, limited travel, and curtailed economic activities, leading to 7.3% drop in Indian GDP for the fiscal year 2020-21. For TMX, the year's business environment was also harmed by commodity price increases, logistical challenges (container unavailability and increased freight costs), and supply issues from China. Following the initial wave of Macroeconomic factor Covid, the company's diverse and broad customer base aided in capitalizing on the momentum in the food, pharma, and chemicals sectors. Following the recovery, green shoots appeared in other sectors such as cement, steel, sponge iron, and refinery and petrochemical. Going forward, TMX is aligning its long-term goal with the needs of a cleaner, greener, and healthier world with more impetus on clean energy, clean water, and clean air company. Category of Shareholder (%) FY21 Promoter Holding 62.0 DII 14.6 Key Holders FII/FPI 12.5 Public 5.5 Others 5.4 Total 100 Source: Company, DART July 14, 2021 2 Thermax Key takeaways from MD&A Reducing Carbon footprints - The company plans to increase scale of company’s green offering and reduce 25% of carbon footprint by 2025. The orders received by TBWES during second half of FY21 were all ‘green’. There has been visible shift from Capex to Opex model with TOESL playing a key role to decarbonize and reduce water footprint. During the year, the share of green offering was 68% of the total orders booked. This was mainly on account of several non-fossil orders bagged by TBWES, a major bio refinery order for Power EPC, besides orders for biomass based boilers, and ‘green’ outsourced utilities. Sizeable order booking from green offerings 100 90 29 30 32 80 38 70 60 50 40 71 70 68 30 62 20 10 0 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 Green Others Source: DART, Company Digital Initiatives - Investments in digitalization has helped Thermax improve its internal process efficiencies and customer experience. Investments in ThermaxNXT, its transformation project, the company is aiming to reach 100% of the installed base with technology enabled services. The project is focused on building an organization that drives excellence, inclusivity and innovation. Notably, Digitalization initiatives helped in remote operation to ensure seamless execution of commissioning. Besides, the company is looking at offering IoT services, leasing, technology collaborations and R&D to drive sustainable solutions in new energy areas, such as fuel cells and Thermal-HVAC. Restructuring - To consolidate its global operations, the company undertook restructuring exercise which included – i) Closing down China Subsidiary – TZL, ii) has proposed liquidation of Thermax Senegal S.A.R.L, post winding up of operations, iii) sold a non-profitable service business segment of Boilerworks A/S, iv) Impairment of assets worth Rs747mn and Rs225mn in Thermax Netherlands B. V. and Thermax Engineering Singapore Pte Ltd respectively, and iv) established entities in Thailand and Nigeria to steer the expansion of the project business overseas. Product and Services portfolio - The company’s order booking from products and services for FY21 stood at Rs25.5bn, as against Rs. 27.5bn in FY20. Though the order book has declined in FY21, the proportionate reduction in order book from products and services is less in comparison to the project business. July 14, 2021 3 Thermax Growing products and services portfolio 75 68.4 70 65 60 52.0 55 50.0 50 45 39.0 40 35 30 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 Order booking from Product & Services (%) Source: DART, Company Order inflows - TMX’s order booking in FY21 stood at Rs13.6bn, as against Rs14.7bn in FY20. Currently, the international segment contributes 28.5% to the total booking. Thermax won its first export order for the Flue Gas Desulphurization unit during the year, from a customer in Saudi Arabia. This first-of-its-kind order to supply air pollution equipment for lignin fired boilers and alumina calcination added a new layer to the company’s strength in this niche domain. The Steam Engineering division secured orders from a Malaysia-based rubber glove manufacturer for steam accessories and services. Power O&M continued to expand its reach, with its first ever order from Tanzania. On the renewable energy front, Thermax executed a 1 MW solar rooftop project for an African company, optimally combining energy from solar, steam turbine, DG and grid. Order inflows composition FY20 Order inflows composition FY21 Power Refinery and 19% Petrochem Others 16% Others F/B & 42% 43% Packaging Cement 11% 14% Chemical Chemical Metal and 9% F/B & Metal & 10% Steel Cement Packaging Steel 7% 11% 8% 10% Source: DART, Company Source: DART, Company VRS scheme - The group, as on October 05, 2020, announced a Voluntary Retirement Scheme (VRS) for its eligible employees.
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