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Le Mercato De Football Baromètre sport Le mercato de football LEVÉE D’EMBARGO DIMANCHE 18 JUIN 2017 À 08H30 Sondage réalisé pour Méthodologie Recueil Enquête réalisée auprès d’un échantillon de Français interrogés par Internet les 14 et 15 juin 2017 Echantillon Echantillon de 1 002 personnes représentatif de la population française âgée de 18 ans et plus, parmi lesquelles 352 amateurs de football. La représentativité de l’échantillon est assurée par la méthode des quotas appliqués aux variables suivantes : sexe, âge et profession de l’interviewé après stratification par région et catégorie d’agglomération. Précisions sur les marges d’erreur Chaque sondage présente une incertitude statistique que l’on appelle marge d’erreur. Cette marge d’erreur signifie que le résultat d’un sondage se situe, avec un niveau de confiance de 95%, de part et d’autre de la valeur observée. La marge d’erreur dépend de la taille de l’échantillon ainsi que du pourcentage observé. Si le pourcentage observé est de … Taille de l’Echantillon 5% ou 95% 10% ou 90% 20% ou 80% 30% ou 70% 40% ou 60% 50% 200 3,1 4,2 5,7 6,5 6,9 7,1 400 2,2 3,0 4,0 4,6 4,9 5,0 500 1,9 2,7 3,6 4,1 4,4 4,5 600 1,8 2,4 3,3 3,7 4,0 4,1 800 1,5 2,5 2,8 3,2 3,5 3,5 900 1,4 2,0 2,6 3,0 3,2 3,3 1 000 1,4 1,8 2,5 2,8 3,0 3,1 2 000 1,0 1,3 1,8 2,1 2,2 2,2 3000 0,8 1,1 1,4 1,6 1,8 1,8 Lecture du tableau : Dans un échantillon de 1000 personnes (ensemble des Français), si le pourcentage observé est de 20%, la marge d’erreur est égale à 2,5%. Le pourcentage réel est donc compris dans l’intervalle [17,5 ; 22,5]. Dans un échantillon de près de 400 personnes (les amateurs de foot), si le pourcentage observé est de 20% la marge d’erreur est égale à 4% : le pourcentage réel est donc compris dans l’intervalle [16;24], Principaux enseignements (1/2) MERCATO : MONACO DOIT TOUT FAIRE POUR CONSERVER MBAPPÉ, PARIS DOIT VENDRE PASTORE SELON LES AMATEURS DE FOOT Le mercato, un moment incontournable de la saison, suivi par 60% des amateurs de football Chaque année, à peine les trophées sont-ils remis au vainqueur que les spéculations sur la saison prochaine prennent place dans les médias sportifs. C’est la période des ambitions, des rêves de grands joueurs et de pépites mais c’est aussi la période de la crainte de se voir chiper les meilleurs éléments pour bon nombre des clubs. Avec eux, leurs supporters spéculent et imaginent le visage du prochain effectif. Si le mercato n’intéresse pas beaucoup les Français (77%), il est suivi par 6 amateurs de football sur 10. Privés de ballon rond pendant plus de deux mois, les passionnés de football occupent leur été en suivant les rumeurs de transferts et les arrivées officialisées. Les rumeurs ne sont d’ailleurs pas toutes nécessairement infondées selon eux. Entre les petites manipulations destinées à renégocier un contrat, la séduction de jeunes joueurs pour préparer l’avenir ou les véritables rumeurs totalement infondées, il n’est pas toujours évident de faire le tri. Mais les amateurs de football semblent y parvenir et 54% d’entre eux ont tendance à les croire. La Ligue 1 sera encore plus forte l’an prochain pour 57% des amateurs de football La saison 2016-2017 restera un excellent cru dans l’histoire de la Ligue 1. Monaco, Paris et Nice se sont livrés une lutte sans merci, il a plu des records de points, de nombre de buts marqués et les révélations MBappé, Lemar ou encore Cyprien ont rayonné sur les pelouses hexagonales. Sur le plan européen, Monaco et Lyon se sont hissés en demi-finales des ligues de champions et Europa, quant au PSG, n’oublions pas qu’il a battu le Barça 4-0 avant l’humiliation de la fameuse remontada. Principaux enseignements (2/2) Après une si belle saison, la Ligue 1 peut-elle faire mieux ? Sur le papier, c’est oui selon les amateurs de football. 57% d’entre eux affirment que les effectifs des clubs de Ligue 1 seront globalement plus forts que cette saison. Les indicateurs sont effectivement plutôt au vert. Au-delà des trois ou quatre clubs (Monaco, Paris, Lyon et Nice) déjà très performants cette saison, d’autres projets ambitieux devraient animer le mercato cet été. C’est évidemment le cas de Marseille mais aussi de Lille ou encore Bordeaux. Monaco doit tout faire pour conserver MBappé, Paris doit vendre Pastore selon les amateurs de foot Si les clubs de Ligue 1 souhaitent présenter des effectifs meilleurs cette saison, encore faudra-t-il conserver les meilleurs éléments déjà présents. Nous avons interrogé les amateurs de football sur quelques joueurs emblématiques qui pourraient partir cet été. Le premier d’entre eux est Kylian MBappé. Le jeune prodige est sur les tablettes des plus grands clubs européens (Real, Barça, Arsenal, Paris…) mais pourrait bien opter pour la prudence à un an de la coupe du monde en restant sur le rocher. Le club doit tout faire pour le conserver selon 75% des amateurs de football. Déjà estimé à près de 100 millions d’euros par certains, MBappé a en effet peu de chance de perdre de la valeur, le conserver une saison de plus pourrait même permettre à Monaco de réaliser un transfert encore plus lucratif. Arrivé en 2011, Javier Pastore ne s’est jamais totalement imposé sur la durée au PSG. Entre les blessures, les compositions sans vrai n°10 et les quelques périodes de doute, l’argentin est tout de même parvenu à démontrer son talent en Ligue 1. Pas suffisamment pour les amateurs de football : 55% d’entre eux jugent que le PSG doit vendre « El Flaco ». Quant à Alexandre Lacazette et Marco Verratti, ils présentent un profil assez similaire à l’entrée du mercato. Fidèles, très performants et piliers de leur équipe depuis plusieurs saisons, ils cherchent à franchir un nouveau palier et il n’est pas évident que leur valeur progresse encore au cours des prochaines saisons. Tiraillés entre le souhait de voir ces talents quitter la Ligue 1 et l’idée que c’est le bon moment pour un transfert, les amateurs de foot sont partagés. La moitié estime que leur club respectif doit les vendre, l’autre affirmant au contraire qu’il faut tout faire pour les conserver. Emile Leclerc, Directeur d’études @emile_leclerc 60% des amateurs de foot s’intéressent au mercato A propos du mercato de football, diriez-vous que cela vous intéresse beaucoup, assez, assez peu ou pas du tout ? ST Pas intéressé : 77% ST Intéressé : 22% Amateurs de football : 39% Amateurs de football : 60% (NSP) 1% Beaucoup 8% Assez Pas du tout 14% 56% Assez peu 21% Les amateurs de foot ont tendance à croire les rumeurs de transferts Lorsque vous apprenez une rumeur de transfert d’un joueur, avez-vous tendance à… (Aux amateurs de foot) Amateurs de football (NSP) 1% Ne pas y croire Y croire 45% 54% Les amateurs de foot s’attendent à des clubs de Ligue 1 plus forts la saison prochaine Selon vous, la saison prochaine, les clubs de Ligue 1 auront-ils des effectifs globalement plus forts ou moins forts que la saison dernière ? (Aux amateurs de foot) Amateurs de football (NSP) 1% Moins forts 42% Plus forts 57% Pour les amateurs de foot, Monaco doit conserver MBappé Pour chacun des joueurs suivants susceptibles de quitter leur club lors du mercato, considérez- vous que leur club devrait tout faire pour le conserver ou bien le vendre ? (Aux amateurs de foot) Amateurs de football Kylian Mbappé (Monaco) 75% 23% 2% Alexandre Lacazette (Lyon) 51% 47% 2% Marco Verratti (PSG) 50% 48% 2% Javier Pastore (PSG) 43% 55% 2% Tout faire pour le conserver Le vendre (NSP).
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