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UAE Real Estate Sector Global Research Sector – Real Estate Equities - UAE June 22, 2011 UAE Real Estate Sector Debt burden an overhang for economic growth in the medium term Pressure on property prices persistent through to end of 2012 Prefer Emaar and Sorouh over Aldar on liquidity and near term earnings Strong Buy – Emaar, Hold – Aldar, Buy – Sorouh Debt burden an overhang for economic growth in the medium term The debt burden on Dubai government and its GREs is a key overhang to economic growth, in our view. Total Dubai related debt is estimated at USD113 billion, equivalent to 37.3% of the UAE 2010 GDP. Despite the several successful rounds of debt restructuring by Dubai GREs, the large debt burden still proposes challenges given exposure of the banking sector to the troubled real estate GREs. However, markets appear to have priced in short term factors with the appetite for Dubai risk growing given the continuous improvements in Dubai CDS, currently at 332 bps, the lowest level since November 2009 driven by solid evidence that Dubai is well positioned as the region’s safe haven during the recent political tensions. Pressure on Dubai & Abu Dhabi property prices persistent through to 2012 Dubai residential selling prices have dropped almost 56% from their peak in 4Q08 until 1Q11 while those of Abu Dhabi lost 45% over the same period. We estimate a current vacancy rate of 30% in Dubai and 3% in Abu Dhabi. The figure for the latter is subject to significant increase in the coming 2.5 years given the influx of 65,000 units in the residential market. We forecast another drop of 10% to take place through to the end of 2012 in Dubai and a 15-20% decline in Abu Dhabi. We prefer Emaar and Sorouh on better liquidity profile and near term earnings Of the three big real estate names in the UAE property sector, Emaar is our favorite pick on sustainable earnings from its high quality retail and hospitality portfolio and the contributions from international operations over the next three years. We also like its stable debt profile after the new bond issuance. In Abu Dhabi, we prefer Sorouh over Aldar for its near term earnings on 2011 deliveries along with its relaxed debt profile. We like Sorouh’s growing investment portfolio although it remains of smaller size and lower quality compared to those of Emaar and Aldar. For Aldar, the restructuring plan has provided the needed short term lifeline at the expense of high dilution and a weakened recurring future earnings portfolio. We also believe that Aldar’s earnings will be whipped UAE Real Estate out, to a large extent, by the high debt service expense. Initiate coverage on UAE real estate Initiate coverage on the three largest UAE real estate listed stocks. We initiate on Emaar with a Faisal Hasan, CFA target price of AED3.91/share and a STRONG BUY recommendation, Aldar with target price of Head of Research AED1.51/share and a HOLD recommendation and Sorouh with a target price of AED1.52/share and [email protected] a BUY recommendation. Tel: (965) 2295-1270 Mostafa El-Maghraby Global Research - UAE Real Estate Senior Financial Analyst Company CMP Mkt. Cap P/E P/B ROE Target Upside [email protected] Rating Tel: (965) 2295-1279 AED (AED mn) 2011e 2011e 2011e Price Potential Global Investment House Emaar 3.15 19,187 11.2 0.6 5.0 3.91 24% STRONG BUY www.globalinv.net Aldar 1.37 3,948 8.4 0.6 4.3 1.51 10% Hold Sorouh 1.34 3,518 5.9 0.5 9.0 1.52 13% Buy Source: Bloomberg, Global Research Global Research - UAE Real Estate Sector Valuation & Recommendation Valuation Methodology For arriving at the fair value targets for listed UAE real estate developers, we utilize a Sum Of The Parts (SOTP) approach by valuing each project separately. We apply a one stage DCF valuation methodology for development sales projects over the project life given management guidance and our judgment of delivery dates and selling prices. For DCF based valuations, we use the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to arrive at the cost of equity of each company and adjust the WACC to the upside based on our projections for the degree of riskiness of each project. We value the hospitality segment using a two stage DCF approach with inputs on ADRs and occupancy rates being driven from market data and forecasted in line with long term trends. For investment properties related valuations, we value retail properties utilizing a capitalization rate for the current year net operating income or for the second operating year for properties under construction. We apply a two stage DCF for commercial and residential properties held for investment. For all three companies, we exclude land from the valuation given our negative views on the market and the difficulty to unlock land value in the near term. Emaar Properties Emaar has an exceptionally well performing operational investment portfolio comprising 5.28 million sqf of GLA of high end malls and retail outlets that run high occupancy rates on long term contracts. The retail segment realizes high margins hovering around 80% with revenues growing from AED499 million in 2008 to AED1.9 billion in 2010, a level we see sustainable in the future given low maintenance capex requirements and operational expenses. The hospitality segment is also well performing given the high profile of Emaar’s hotels and Dubai’s tourism attractions, especially on the back of the recent regional political troubles. Moreover, International operations will pick up pace and contribute an expected AED11.1 billion to revenues between 2011 and 2014 mitigating the phase out from Dubai sales. The current share price of AED3.15 implies that investors are ignoring the combined value of UAE development sales and International operations and only factoring in the value of the retail and hospitality segments. We value Emaar at AED3.91/share, which implies an upside potential of 24% from the current market price of AED3.15/share and initiate with a STRONG BUY. Aldar Properties In our view, the restructuring plan that Aldar undertook in January 2011 to reschedule its maturing loans saved the company from an imminent bankruptcy and rounds of settlement with debtors, which would impair management ability to proceed with scheduled projects as planned. Further, the impairment charges have cleaned up the asset base positioning the company at a better starting point. However, we are skeptical on Aldar’s ability to meet its high debt and capex requirements given its current project profile. We are also not proponents of the continuing process of operating asset transfers to the government at low margins after the company incurs the time and cash investment. We believe 2013 will conclude revenues from Aldar’s development sales backlog, assuming no delays. This fall will not be mitigated by the growing recurring income, which accounts to only 36% of our aggregate four year revenues. We also believe that earnings and cash flow will be under attack from the hefty debt service costs, which we forecast at an aggregate AED1.7 billion between 2011 and 2014. Our SOTP valuation of Aldar Properties yields a fair value target of AED1.51/share implying an upside potential of 10% from the current market price. We initiate coverage with a HOLD recommendation on the stock. Sorouh Real Estate Sorouh property sales will witness high activity through to 2013 as the delivery of units across its various projects materialize. In 2011, we see complete sales from the completed towers of Shams Abu Dhabi while deliveries from Al Ghadeer and the Gate residential towers will contribute to the top line towards the end of 2012 and into 2013. We like Sorouh’s growing investment portfolio with its high exposure to the Abu Dhabi rental market given our expectations of high absorption rates in spite of concerns over the downwards trending yield. The size and quality of Sorouh’s investment portfolio remain on the weak side when compared to those of Emaar and Aldar. Sorouh’s liquidity position is sound given the company’s financing arrangements in 2010 through which it raised AED2.7 billion four-year loan facility repayable over a period of 48 months starting September 2012 after a grace period of 27 months. We believe that by the time the first installment is due, Sorouh would have collected sufficient cash from property sales to meet its obligations. Further, we see 2012 as the last year of Sorouh’s hefty capex requirements, which should ease any pressures on debt repayments going forward. Our valuation for Sorouh yields a fair value target price of AED1.52/share implying an upside potential of 13% over the current market price. Accordingly, we initiate coverage with a BUY recommendation. June 2011 2 Global Research – UAE Real Estate Sector MENA Real Estate Listed Equities Multiples Ticker Security P/E P/B P/S EV/EBITDA United Arab Emirates EMAAR UH Equity Emaar Properties PJSC 9.4 0.6 1.7 7.8 ALDAR UH Equity Aldar Properties PJSC na 0.9 1.6 na SOROUH UH Equity Sorouh Real Estate Co na 0.6 2.7 12.3 DEYAAR UH Equity Deyaar Development na 0.4 0.7 na UPP UH Equity Union Properties PJSC Na 0.4 0.4 12.6 RAKPROP UH Equity RAK Properties PJSC 4.2 0.2 2.0 3.8 Average 6.8 0.5 1.5 9.1 Saudi Arabia ALARKAN AB Equity Dar Al Arkan Real Estate Development 5.8 0.6 2.2 9.7 EMAAR AB Equity Emaar Economic City na 0.8 64.4 na MCDCO AB Equity Makkah Construction and Development 17.9 1.5 46.7 na SRECO AB Equity Saudi Real Estate Co 15.6 0.9 6.3 10.7 REDSEA AB Equity Red Sea Housing Services Co 22.1 2.1 1.9 12.5 ADCO AB Equity Arriyadh Development Co 14.3 1.0 8.2 9.9 Average 15.1 1.1 21.6 10.7 Kuwait ALTIJARI KK Equity Commercial Real Estate Co 31.4 0.5 7.2 20.3 URC KK Equity United Real Estate Co 18.3 0.6 3.2 21.4 SRE KK Equity Salhia Real Estate Co KSC 9.9 0.8 1.7 5.9 TAMEERK KK Equity Tameer Real Estate Invest 8.3 0.5 2.9 15.7 MABANEE KK Equity Mabanee Company SAKO 25.0 3.7 18.2 23.4 Average 18.6 1.2 6.6 17.3 Egypt OCDI EY Equity Six of October Development 18.1 1.1 3.3 8.3 TMGH EY Equity Talaat Moustafa Group 13.0 0.4 2.0 12.9 PHDC EY Equity Palm Hills Developments SAE 6.2 0.6 1.3 7.2 MNHD EY Equity Medinet Nasr Housing 32.1 8.4 4.2 23.7 HELI EY Equity Heliopolis Housing 14.8 6.4 7.0 13.1 ZMID EY Equity Zahraa El Maadi Investment & Dev.
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