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Sununu Strongest GOP Challenger for Senate in 2022 2/25/2021

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Sununu Strongest GOP Challenger for Senate in 2022 2/25/2021 February 25, 2021 SUNUNU STRONGEST GOP CHALLENGER FOR SENATE IN 2022 By: Sean P. McKinley, M.A. [email protected] Zachary S. Azem, M.A. 603-862-2226 Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. cola.unh.edu/unh-survey-center DURHAM, NH - New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu is currently the strongest Republican challenger to incumbent Maggie Hassan for U.S. Senate in 2022. Sununu and Hassan are ed in a hypothe cal matchup and former Senator Kelly Ayo e is also sta s cally ed with Hassan. Re red General Don Bolduc and poli cal commentator Corey Lewandowski trail Hassan by double-digit margins. Sununu con nues to enjoy high favorability ra ngs in the state, while Granite Staters are divided in their view of Hassan. Residents are also divided on Ayo e, Bolduc is largely unknown, and Lewandowski is largely unpopular in the state. These findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll*, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. One thousand eight hundred and sixty-one (1,861) Granite State Panel members completed the survey online between February 18 and February 22, 2021. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2.3 percent. Included were 1,676 likely 2022 general elec on voters (MSE = +/- 2.4%). Data were weighted by respondent sex, age, educa on, and region of the state to targets from the most recent American Community Survey (ACS) conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, as well as party registra on levels provided by the NH Secretary of State and 2020 elec on results in NH. Granite State Panel members are recruited from randomly-selected landline and cell phone numbers across New Hampshire and surveys are sent periodically to panel members. 2022 U.S. Senate Elec on Now that the 2020 elec on has finally been se led, candidate and pundits are looking ahead to the 2022 U.S. Senate elec on in New Hampshire. Republican Governor Chris Sununu said he has not ruled out challenging Senator Maggie Hassan for the seat. If the elec on were held today, 48% of likely 2022 voters say they would vote for Sununu, 46% would vote for Hassan, 2% would vote for another candidate, and 5% are undecided. Both candidates have overwhelming support from their respec ve par es - 92% of Democrats say they would support Hassan and 95% of Republicans would support Sununu. Sununu leads among Independents by a large margin (38 percentage points). 2022 U.S. Senate Elec on - Hassan (D) vs. Sununu (R) OVERALL Democrat Independent Republican 100% 95% Maggie Hassan 92% Chris Sununu Other Don't know/undecided 80% 60% 56% 48% 46% 40% 20% 18% 17% 10% 5% 4% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0% 1% * We ask that this copyrighted informa on be referred to as the Granite State Panel, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. • Hassan holds a wide lead over Sununu (+44 percentage points) among those aged 18 to 34, while Sununu leads Hassan among • those aged 35 to 49 (+23) and 50 to 64 (+26). • Sununu leads Hassan by 18 percentage points among men while Hassan leads Sununu by 14 points among women. • Sununu leads Hassan by 20 percentage points among those with a high school educa on or less while Hassan leads by 26 points • among those who have completed postgraduate work. • Sununu leads Hassan by 89 percentage points among those who voted for Donald Trump in 2020 while Hassan leads Sununu by 69 points among those who voted for Joe Biden. 2022 U.S. Senate Elec on - Hassan (D) vs. Sununu (R) - Difference in Support - February 2021 Maggie Hassan Chris Sununu Overall OVERALL 2% 18 to 34 44% 35 to 49 23% Age of Respondent 50 to 64 26% 65 and older 0% Gender of Men 18% Respondent Women 14% High school or less 20% Tech school/Some college 4% Level of Education College graduate 3% Postgraduate work 26% 2020 Presidential Voted for Trump 89% Vote Voted for Biden 69% Former Senator Kelly Ayo e, who lost very narrowly to Hassan in the 2016 Senate race, has also been seen as a challenger to Hassan in 2022. In this matchup Hassan and Ayo e are in a sta s cal e - 48% of likely 2022 voters say they would vote for Hassan, 43% would vote for Ayo e, 3% would vote for another candidate, and 6% are undecided. Ninety-six percent of Democrats say they would support Hassan and 90% of Republicans would support Ayo e while Ayo e leads by 17 percentage points among Independents. 2022 U.S. Senate Elec on - Hassan (D) vs. Ayo e (R) OVERALL Democrat Independent Republican 100% 96% Maggie Hassan Kelly Ayotte 90% 90% Other Don't know/undecided 80% 70% 60% 50% 48% 43% 40% 40% 30% 28% 23% 20% 10% 8% 6% 5% 3% 3% 2% 1% 2% 0% 0% • Hassan holds a wide lead over Ayo e (+51 percentage points) among those aged 18 to 34, while Ayo e holds smaller leads over • Hassan among those aged 35 to 49 (+18) and 50 to 64 (+17). • Ayo e leads Hassan by 10 percentage points among men while Hassan leads Ayo e by 22 points among women. • Ayo e leads Hassan by 10 percentage points among those with a high school educa on or less while Hassan holds leads among • those with higher levels of educa on. • Ayo e leads Hassan by 83 percentage points among those who voted for Trump in 2020 while Hassan leads Ayo e by 78 points among those who voted for Biden. 2022 U.S. Senate Elec on - Hassan (D) vs. Ayo e (R) - Difference in Support - February 2021 Maggie Hassan Kelly Ayotte Overall OVERALL 6% 18 to 34 51% 35 to 49 18% Age of Respondent 50 to 64 17% 65 and older 8% Gender of Men 10% Respondent Women 22% High school or less 10% Tech school/Some college 10% Level of Education College graduate 15% Postgraduate work 27% 2020 Presidential Voted for Trump 83% Vote Voted for Biden 78% Re red General Don Bolduc, who unsuccessfully sought the Republican nomina on in the 2020 Senate race against Jeanne Shaheen, has already announced his decision to run for Senate against Hassan. Hassan currently leads in this hypothe cal matchup - 52% say they would vote for Hassan, 39% would vote for Bolduc, 2% would vote for another candidate, and 7% are undecided. Ninety-six percent of Democrats say they would support Hassan and 83% of Republicans would support Bolduc while the two candidates are ed among Independents. 2022 U.S. Senate Elec on - Hassan (D) vs. Bolduc (R) OVERALL Democrat Independent Republican 100% 96% Maggie Hassan Don Bolduc 90% Other 83% Don't know/undecided 80% 70% 60% 52% 50% 42% 41% 39% 40% 30% 20% 11% 9% 10% 7% 6% 6% 3% 2% 1% 2% 0% 0% • Hassan holds a wide lead over Bolduc (+58 percentage points) among those aged 18 to 34 and a smaller lead among those aged 65 • and older (+21), while Bolduc leads Hassan among those aged 35 to 49 (+16) and 50 to 64 (+10). • Bolduc holds a very small lead over Hassan among men (+5) while Hassan leads Bolduc by 32 points among women. • Bolduc leads Hassan by 7 percentage points among those with a high school educa on or less while Hassan holds larger leads • among those with higher levels of educa on. • Bolduc leads Hassan by 86 percentage points among those who voted for Trump in 2020 while Hassan leads Bolduc by 90 points among those who voted for Biden. 2022 U.S. Senate Elec on - Hassan (D) vs. Bolduc (R) - Difference in Support - February 2021 Maggie Hassan Don Bolduc Overall OVERALL 13% 18 to 34 58% 35 to 49 16% Age of Respondent 50 to 64 10% 65 and older 21% Gender of Men 5% Respondent Women 32% High school or less 7% Tech school/Some college 16% Level of Education College graduate 24% Postgraduate work 40% 2020 Presidential Voted for Trump 86% Vote Voted for Biden 90% Another candidate rumored to be considering running in 2022 is poli cal commentator and former Donald Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski. Hassan currently holds a comfortable lead over Lewandowski as 53% of likely 2022 voters say they would vote for Hassan, 34% would vote for Lewandowski, 3% would vote for another candidate, and 9% are undecided. Ninety-six percent of Democrats say they would support Hassan while only 74% of Republicans would support Lewandowski. Hassan also holds a lead of 12 percentage points among Independents. 2022 U.S. Senate Elec on - Hassan (D) vs. Lewandowski (R) OVERALL Democrat Independent Republican 100% 96% Maggie Hassan Corey Lewandowski 90% Other Don't know/undecided 80% 74% 70% 60% 53% 50% 42% 40% 34% 30% 30% 20% 15% 14% 12% 9% 9% 10% 3% 3% 3% 1% 0% 0% • Hassan holds a wide lead over Lewandowski (+62 percentage points) among those aged 18 to 34 and a smaller lead among those • aged 65 and older (+25), while Lewandowski holds very small leads over Hassan among those aged 35 to 49 (+8) and 50 to 64 (+4). • Hassan leads Lewandowski by 35 percentage points among women and by 4 points among men. • Hassan leads Lewandowski by large margins among college graduates (+32 percentage points) and those who have completed • postgraduate work (+44). • Lewandowski leads Hassan by 76 percentage points among those who voted for Trump in 2020 while Hassan leads Lewandowski by 93 points among those who voted for Biden. 2022 U.S.
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