The Climate Emergency: Extinction Rebellion’s influence on agenda-setting and climate change frames in parliamentary debates in the U.K.
Image: TOLGA AKMEN/AFP/Getty Images
Hannah van den Hil Student ID: s2094142 Email: [email protected]
Supervisor: Dr. L.D. Cabane
Master Thesis Crisis and Security Management 29-10-2020
Word count: 18.546
Abstract
Evidence of climate change has been mounting over the last decades, but policy has been slow to follow. In 2019, the U.K. became the first country in the world to declare a climate and ecological emergency. The declaration came on the heels of 10 days of protests that disrupted London. The protests were organised by a relatively new social movement named Extinction Rebellion. They managed to mobilise thousands of people for their acts of civil disobedience. They stated three demands: 1) a climate emergency declaration, 2) legislation for net zero emissions by 2025 and 3) a citizens’ assembly on climate change. This thesis examines to what extent Extinction Rebellion influenced agenda-setting and framing of climate change in the House of Commons in the U.K. between January 1st 2018 and May 1st 2019. Media attention and issue salience among U.K. citizens indicate that they were effective in increasing both. Although these indicators do not always translate to agenda-setting, Extinction Rebellion succeeded. Before the protests were over, MP Edward Miliband voiced all three demands in a parliamentary debate that carried Extinction Rebellion’s name. Several politicians also attributed Extinction Rebellion and the School Strike for Climate protesters with putting climate change (back) on the agenda. The momentum was used by politicians to introduce a net zero bill, although the target was set for 2050 rather than 2025. Extinction Rebellion was less effective in influencing the frames that are used in parliamentary debates to discuss science-related issues.
Keywords: Extinction Rebellion, protests, agenda-setting, framing, climate change
2 Table of Contents
List of figures ...... 5
1. Introduction ...... 6 1.1 Research problem ...... 6 1.2 Research objective and research question ...... 7 1.3 Academic and societal relevance ...... 8 1.4 Reading guide ...... 9
2. Theoretical framework ...... 10 2.1 Literature review ...... 10 Agenda-setting ...... 10 Agenda-setting and social movements ...... 11 Social movements and framing ...... 13 2.2 Theoretical framework ...... 14 Agenda-setting ...... 14 Framing ...... 16 Conclusion ...... 18
3. Methodology ...... 19 3.1 Design ...... 19 3.2 Case selection ...... 20 3.4 Agenda-setting ...... 21 Media analysis ...... 21 Political impact ...... 22 3.5 Framing ...... 24 Operationalisation of frames ...... 25 3.6 Limitations ...... 28
4. Agenda-setting ...... 30 4.1 Extinction Rebellion agenda-setting ...... 30 4.2. Extinction Rebellion framework and strategy ...... 31 4.3. Problem Indicators ...... 33 4.4. Focusing events ...... 34 Extinction Rebellion protests ...... 34 Protests as focusing event ...... 35 4.5. Feedback ...... 36 Media response ...... 36 Issue salience ...... 40 4.6. Political impact ...... 42 Time frame ...... 42 Focusing events ...... 43 Extinction Rebellion demands ...... 44 Climate as a crisis ...... 45 Conservative / Labour comparison ...... 47
3 5. Framing ...... 50 5.1. Extinction Rebellion message framing ...... 50 Diagnostic framing ...... 50 Prognostic framing ...... 51 Motivational framing ...... 52 5.2. Results ...... 53 Conservative/Labour comparison ...... 56 5.3. Conclusion ...... 57
6. Discussion ...... 58
7. Conclusion ...... 60
References ...... 62
Appendix 1: Codebook agenda-setting ...... 79
Appendix 2: Codebook framing ...... 81
Appendix 3: Headlines The Times, The Daily Mail & The Guardian ...... 83
Appendix 4; Results content analysis agenda-setting ...... 86
Appendix 5; Results content analysis framing ...... 88
4 List of Figures
Figure 1; Theoretical framework ...... 17 Figure 2. Overview of the selected debates...... 20 Figure 3. Codebook agenda-setting (see appendix 1 for full codebook) ...... 24 Figure 4. Articles mentioning Extinction Rebellion ...... 36 Figure 5. Articles mentioning climate protest ...... 37 Figure 6. Articles mentioning one of the three demands ...... 38 Figure 7. Articles mentioning climate emergency ...... 38 Figure 8. Articles mentioning climate change, including and excluding articles mentioning 'protest' or 'rebellion' ...... 39 Figure 10. Climate change or global warming ...... 40 Figure 11. Issue salience among U.K. citizens ...... 41 Figure 12. Timeline ...... 43 Figure 13. Climate activism mentioned ...... 44 Figure 14. The three demands in the debates ...... 45 Figure 15. Climate conceptualised as a crisis ...... 46 Figure 16. Combative and crisis language per political party ...... 47 Figure 17. Extinction Rebellion and protest mentioned per political party ...... 48 Figure 18. Emergency declaration mentioned per political party ...... 48 Figure 19. Frame composition of the debates (excl. 'other') ...... 53 Figure 20. Frame composition of the debates (excl. ‘other’) ...... 55 Figure 21. Distribution of frame use over political party ...... 56 Figure 22. Codebook agenda-setting (full) ...... 79 Figure 23. Codebook framing (full) ...... 81 Figure 24. Subject of the headlines that day ...... 83 Figure 25. Frequency word(s) appeared in parliamentary debate ...... 86 Figure 26. Weighted results (frequency/word count) ...... 86 Figure 27. Use of words over time ...... 87 Figure 28. Words divided by party ...... 87 Figure 29. Frequency use of frames per debate ...... 88 Figure 30. Weighted results (frame/total) ...... 88
5 1. Introduction
This chapter outlines the research problem that is the basis of the thesis and states the research objective with the research question and two accompanying sub-questions. It also discusses the academic and societal relevance and provides a reading guide.
1.1 Research problem
Climate change is a unique policy problem. Over the last few decades, a growing body of scientific evidence has warned the world of climate change. Scientists agree that we have a short window of time to make radical changes or we will reach a devastating limit. Droughts, floods, storms and rising sea levels will result in famine, refugee crises, diseases, extensive damages to infrastructures and all will have significant economic repercussions (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPPC], 2018). However, policy has been slow to follow. This discrepancy has been attributed to different factors; the power of corporations, the lack of visual feedback from the emissions of greenhouse gasses, the distance of the problem in both space and time and narratives that question the scientific evidence (van der Linden, Maibach & Leiserowitz, 2015; Mooney, 2006). Then, the U.K. became the first country in the world to declare a climate and ecological emergency. The declaration came on the heels of 10 days of protests that disrupted London, organised by climate activist group Extinction Rebellion. The group transformed into a social movement and managed to mobilise thousands of people for their acts of civil disobedience. They demanded three things: 1) a climate emergency declaration, 2) legislation for net zero emissions by 2025, and 3) a citizens’ assembly on climate change. This thesis examines to what extent Extinction Rebellion influenced agenda-setting and framing of climate change in the House of Commons in the U.K.. It is often assumed that policy ideas originate from “usual suspects” such as political parties and think tanks (Beland, 2016, p. 238). However, Beland (2016) argued that social movements are also a potential source of ideational innovation (p. 238). Although several scholars have recognised that social movements can influence public policy, the required conditions are uncertain (Harris & Morris, 2017, p. 94). As public policy and social movement literature fail to incorporate one another, there is a link missing in our understanding of how social movements influence policy and vice versa (Meyer, 2003; Ameta 2014). Some studies have dedicated their resources to understanding this dynamic (Jenness & Ingram 2005;
6 Baumgartner & Mahoney, 2005; Ingram & Ingram, 2005; Mamudu et al., 2014). This thesis builds on these efforts to understand how social movements influence the policy process by examining to what extent Extinction Rebellion has influenced agenda-setting and framing of climate change in the House of Commons in the United Kingdom. It pays particular attention to the Climate Emergency Declaration.
1.2 Research objective and research question
Although the climate emergency declaration does not impose any legal obligations on the government, it is a unique course of action. It is the first time a national government formally acknowledges that it “recognises climate change, the urgency of the situation and that the U.K. is set to miss its carbon emission targets” (Brown, 2019). Just weeks before the declaration, traffic in London ground to a halt. On April 15th, protests organised by social movement organisation Extinction Rebellion begun. These protests blocked bridges accessing the capital, major intersections and symbolic venues to raise awareness for the ‘climate emergency’. The streets flooded with young and old, dancing, singing, talking. Among the protesters, spirits were high, and the atmosphere was light. Among commuters, not so much. The protests continued for ten days and disrupted the lives of “many hundreds of thousands of hard-working Londoners” (BBC News, 2019b). This thesis examines the impact these protests had on parliament by posing a research question and two sub- questions:
To what extent has Extinction Rebellion influenced agenda-setting and framing of climate change in the House of Commons in the United Kingdom?
Sub-question 1; To what extent did Extinction Rebellion contribute to the agenda-setting of climate change and in particular of the climate and ecological emergency?
Sub-question 2; To what extent did Extinction Rebellion influence how climate change was framed in political debate between November 2018 and May 2019?
The first sub-question tries to determine if and to explain how Extinction Rebellion influenced the agenda-setting of climate change. The second sub-question examines in what way the issue got on the political agenda. By examining if Extinction Rebellion influenced the frame
7 composition of the debates, the thesis explores if the social movement had the ability to affect in what state the issue arrived on the agenda. To answer the first sub-question, the thesis examines news coverage of the protests, issue salience and transcripts of parliamentary debates on climate change.
1.3 Academic and societal relevance
The consequences are harrowing. Scientists already hypothesised climate change in the 19th century (Fourier, 1837, p.16). In 1960, the evidence became increasingly convincing, and it has been substantiated ever since (Keeling, 1961; IPPC, 2007, p. 98). However, policy action has been slow to follow. Scholars have attributed it partially to framing tactics originating in 90’s US, where Republican strategists steered the conversation away from accountability and mitigative action, towards the ‘lack of scientific certainty’ and the ‘unfair financial burden’ climate policies would impose on Americans (Mooney, 2006). Subsequent public scepticism on the validity of climate change cleared a path for the public and private sphere to continue on the path towards global warming. Risk of water stress, food scarcity, poverty, drought, fires and plant and insect species extinction increase the closer the world comes to 1.5ºC global warming (IPPC, 2018, pp. 7-9) are the result. To stop the temperature rise, it is imperative that policymakers increase their efforts to combat climate change. Climate policy is essential to the development of renewable energy and reducing emissions. Economies need to change across the board, with governments need to subsidise renewable energy, sustainable housing and rebalance the burden of climate change between the poor and wealthy, between developed and developing countries. Developed countries are the biggest polluters while often developing bear the brunt of climate consequences (Gibson, Head, Gill & Waitt., 2011, p. 3; IPCC, 2018, p. 9). With evidence mounting, but policy slow coming around the world, citizens are demanding policy action from their governments. In recent year, there have been several large-scale protests around the world (Laville & Watts, 2019; Bir, 2019). It is essential to society that we get a better understanding of how policy is elevated to the decision agenda, how social movements can impact the political arena and how climate change can receive a more prominent spot on the political agenda. Although several scholars have recognised social movements can influence public policy, the required conditions are uncertain (Harris & Morris, 2017, p. 94). Scholars have devoted their attention to the relationship between social movements, protests and agenda-
8 setting, but mostly in the United States-setting (Andrews, 1997; McAdam & Su, 2002; Baumgartner & Mahoney, 2005; Burstein & Sausner, 2005; King, Cornwall and Dahin, 2005; King, Bentele and Soule, 2007). It is crucial to examine how other political structures react to similar pressures if we want to theorise on conditions that make a social movement effective. Otherwise, generalisability remains low. Furthermore, although there are many studies on the impact of media frames on mass audiences, there are few studies that assess how framing impacts decision elites (Wolfe, Jones and Baumgartner, 2013, p. 184). How an issue is framed in politics impacts what policy outcomes are considered (Nisbet & Huge, 2006). Therefore, it is important to examine if a social movement can influence how politicians frame a particular issue in parliamentary debates. However, social movement literature focusses on what social movement frames exist and what makes them effective in motivating their public audience (Benford & Snow, 2000). Scholars have yet to examine if social movements can influence which frames politicians employ in parliamentary debates.
1.4 Reading guide
The thesis is divided into seven chapters. After this introductory chapter, the theoretical chapter follows. It consists of a literature review on agenda-setting, social movements and framing, and it discusses the theoretical framework of the thesis. The third chapter outlines the methodological approach. It explains the research design, case selection and the methodological approach for the agenda-setting and framing analysis. It also touches upon the limitations of the study. The fourth chapter is the agenda-setting analysis which discusses Extinction Rebellion’s framework, strategies and goals. Then it analyses to what extent they influenced the agenda-setting of climate change by looking at their impact on news coverage, public opinion and political debate. The fifth chapter is the frame analysis. First, Extinction Rebellion’s frames are examined and categorised according to Nisbet’s typology on science- related issues. Then, the results of the frame analysis of the parliamentary debates are discussed to examine if Extinction Rebellion influenced which frames politicians invoked in the debates. The sixth chapter is a discussion of the research and its limitations. The thesis ends with a conclusion on whether Extinction Rebellion was able to get climate change (back) on the agenda and if they influenced which frames in politicians adopted in parliamentary debates.
9 2. Theoretical framework
This second chapter explores the literary body of knowledge that exists on agenda-setting, the relationship between agenda-setting and social movements and the relationship between social movements and framing. Then, it presents the theoretical framework for the thesis.
2.1 Literature review
Agenda-setting
Agenda-setting is based on the landmark study of McCombs and Shaw (1972). They examined the relationship between what participants considered to be the most important issue for the 1968 American election and what the media was reporting as the most important. They found that mass media has the ability to influence public opinion. Agenda-setting theory assumes people base their attitudes and decisions on considerations that are most accessible (Scheufele & Tversky, 2007, p. 11). So, “the ease in which instances or associations could be brought to mind” (Tversky & Kahneman, 1973, p. 208) impacts attitudes. The more salient an issue is, the more important it will be considered. Since then, agenda-setting theorists’ have tried to determine what other factors can explain why certain policy issues rise to the governmental agenda, while others are overlooked (Pralle, 2009, p.783). Kingdon (2003), Downs (1972) and Cobb and Elder (1983) argue that it is not necessarily the objective state of a problem that makes a public problem rise and fall, but rather governmental or public agendas (Pralle, 2009, p.782). Cobb and Elder (1983) identified three levels in the agenda universe that are present in a democracy (p.85-86). First, the systematic agenda, which contains all issues that the political elite believe are within their purview and deserve public attention. An issue advances to the institutional agenda if it is “successfully elevated” (Birkland, 2007, p.65). Decision-makers will then consider these issues, and if they decide to act upon them, the decision agenda is reached (Cobb & Elder, p.85-86). It is only a highly selective group of issues that reach this stage, as space on the agenda is decidedly limited. Hence, interest groups and institutions are forced to fight for their issue to be represented (Birkland, p.65). Scholars have conceptualised the ebb and flow of issues on and off the decision agenda in different ways. Some believe issues go through attention cycles, where “waves of enthusiasm sweep through the political system as political actors become convinced of the value of some new policy” after which attention dwindles (Baumgartner & Jones, 1993, pp. 5). Downs (1972)
10 sees the downcycle of attention as nearing the end of an issue-attention cycle (p. 40), while Baumgartner and Jones (1993) believe the issue still slowly advances but is restrained by factors such as counter mobilisation and bounded rationality (p.5-9). Kingdon believes windows of opportunities open up for certain periods in time, which close relatively quickly (Kingdom, 2011, pp. 166). Policy entrepreneurs who wish to make use of these windows need to be prepared and ready to take immediate action once a window opens up. Pralle (2009) argues that issues cannot be starkly on or off the agenda, but rather occupy a point on a continuum. She observed that climate change, for instance, “can be considered ‘on’ the agenda of many democratic countries, but its position on these agendas varies across time and space.” (p.783). Regardless of how the ebb and flow is conceptualised, most agenda-setting theorists agree that certain factors promote issue attention. Attention to the issue increases the chance of it reaching the political agenda. Two widely accepted theories that address issue attention from an agenda system perspective are the multiple streams theory by Kingdon (2003) and Jones and Baumgartner’s theory of punctuated equilibrium. Kingdon advanced widely accepted factors that promote issue attention, namely “problem indicators”, “focusing events” and “feedback” (Kingdom, 2011). Similarly, Jones and Baumgartner theorise ‘triggering events’ and ‘information feedback’ are essential in advancing an issue to the decision agenda (Liu, Lindquist, Vedlitz, 2011, p. 406).
Agenda-setting and social movements
There is a debate on whether social movements can elevate issues. Often, the impact of social movements on public policy is assessed in light of protests. Although protests are usually not as severe in character and impact as disasters, it could be argued that they can also serve as focusing events. Undoubtedly, protests are effective in bringing their issue in the public eye. If the protests are large and disruptive enough to gain prolonged media attention, the underlying issue can become more salient, much like after an oil spill or hurricane (Vliegenthart et al., 2016, p. 850). Many attribute voting rights for women to the women’s suffrage movement in the United Kingdom (King et al., 2005, p. 1230) and the end of legalised racial discrimination and racial segregation to the American civil rights movement (Blanchett, Brantlinger & Shealey, 2005, p. 66). However, the dynamics of these processes are complex and opaque. For instance, Andrews (1997) found that the response of the opposing party matters greatly for the
11 achievement of social movement objectives. The immediate impact was: the greater the harassment, attacks and arrests of protesters, the greater the mobilisation (Andrews, 1997, p. 807). However, in the long run, he found a correlation between the violent response to protests and the limited election of African Americans to local and state offices (Andrews, 1997, p. 812). The violent resistance actually decreased acquisition of political power by African Americans. In recent years, the study of the relation between social movements and political influence has gained momentum. There is significant debate on if social movements have a political impact, and if they do, how. McAdam and Su (2002) hypothesised that the anti- Vietnam war movement would have had an impact on U.S. Congress due to the intensity of the movement. Yet, they found little evidence of policy impact (McAdam & Su, 2002, p. 718). The lack of impact was later explained by Burstein and Sausner (2005) as a discrepancy between perceived intensity and actual intensity of the movement (p. 414). They argued that the number of protests was actually relatively low and suggested that the relationship between policy change and collective action might not be linear (Burstein & Sausner, 2005, p. 416). Perhaps what is important is whether a social movement can draw the attention of politicians to the desired issue (Burstein & Sausner, 2005, p. 417). Baumgartner and Mahoney (2005) analysed whether social movements impacted the political agenda in the United States. They discovered that the number of social movement organisations affected the number of congressional hearings on the subject (Baumgartner & Mahoney, 2005). Interestingly, Soule, McAdam, McCarthy and Su (1999) discovered a reversed causal relation between protests and political attention. The more attention women’s issues received in Congress, the more protests arose. King, Cornwall and Dahin (2005) studied where precisely in the policy cycle social movements have the most impact. They found that social movements have a better chance to influence the agenda-setting stage than the policy decision or implementing stage. So, they are most effective at the beginning of the policy cycle. Scholars have also studied the influence of protest on U.S. Congress. King, Bentele and Soule (2007) learned that an increase in protests resulted in an increase in congressional hearings in the United States. Unfortunately, all these studies were conducted in the U.S. That is why Walgrave and Vliegenthart (2012) choose to study the protest-agenda relationship in the Belgium parliament. They demonstrated that protests influenced agenda-setting there as well. They found that demonstrations had direct and indirect impacts on the policy agenda in Belgium (Walgrave & Vliegenthart, 2012, p. 129). Large events with high mobilisation translated to direct impact,
12 while mass media coverage indirectly impacts agenda-setting (Walgrave & Vliegenthart, 2012, p. 151). Mass media covers the protests while simultaneously increasing attention to the underlying issue. They observed that articles that did not mention the protests but did discuss the underlying issue also increased. This media signal reached politicians with a delay (Walgrave & Vliegenthart, 2012, p. 152). So, the protests can serve as focusing events by increasing the informational feedback that the public and politicians receive.
Social movements and framing
Until the 1980s, social movements were seen simply as carriers of ideas and meaning. This ideation was believed to “grow automatically [out of] our of structural arrangements, unanticipated events, or existing ideologies” (Benford & Snow, 2000, p. 613). More recent conceptions of social movement dynamics views movements as meaning creators, rather than mere messengers. Social movements produce and maintain ideas and meaning, which they mobilize in an attempt to bring about social change. From this perspective, they are an essential agent in the “politics of signification” together with the state, local government and the media (Benford & Snow, 2000, p. 613). This meaning construction is often referred to as ‘framing’. In 1930, Heider proposed that the world was too complex for humans to understand completely. For that reason, the individual attempts to “infer underlying causal relations from sensory information” (Schuefele, 2000, p. 300). When individuals were shown clips with abstract movements of geometrical shapes, they attributed human characteristics and motivations to the movements and the shapes (Heider & Simmel, 1944). Simply put, humans link the information they do not understand to information they already have. They interpret new information according to the knowlegde of the world they already possess. Goffman (1974) reached the same conclusion. He also argued that individuals classify and interpret their experiences to understand the world. Therefore, how they respond to new information is depended on their previous life experiences (Schuefele, 2000, p. 301). Goffman called these “primary frameworks” or “schematas of interpretation” (Goffman, 1974, p. 24). We consider information in view of semantic roles, the relationship between these roles and the relationship between frames (Lakoff, 2010, p. 71). These unconscious structures are frames. New information we receive is identified and assessed in light of this frame, after which meaning is derived from it. Essentially, frames are the coatrack on which we hang new information.
13 So, movement literature approaches framing as the construction of meaning. How a social movement frames its message gives meaning to its objectives, is essential to successfully creating a support base and starting a public conversation, and to eventually achieve the desired policy change. They argue that for a movement to have policy impact, it must employ diagnostic, prognostic and motivational frames (Benford & Snow, 2000, p. 632). These frames diagnose a problem, attribute blame, propose a solution and provide a strong rationale for why people should join the movement (Benford & Snow, 2000, p. 632). Frames are also important in political debate. Framing impacts how an issue is perceived. Audiences need frames to make sense of an issue, and frames are how audiences discuss and consider information. As a consequence, frames also impact policy decisions. Experts use frames to simplify technical information, while policy makers rely on frames to decide on which policy course to take (Nisbet, 2009, p.15). It is not equivalent to spinning information for personal gain. Although some certainly use it in this way, framing is essentially about highlighting a specific aspect of an issue to communicate (new) information (Nisbet, 2009, p.15). Highlighting specific aspects can reshape the way a person thinks about an issue or event (Howe & Wilkes, 2019, p. 248). For example, politicians can frame a rise in crime as a need to “combat crime” with more stringent action, requiring more police and harsher punishments. They can also frame it as an issue of poverty or education. In that case, more funding for social programs and education would be the appropriate course of action. Although both accounts start with the same problem and both can be considered true, framing impacts which policies are implemented. Power in policymaking is, therefore, partially derived from the capacity to influencing the media to portray the issue favourable (Nisbet & Huge, 2006, p. 3). So, how a social movement frames its message not only impacts how effective they are in terms of motivating their audience but may also determine in what state an issue reaches the agenda. In turn, that could impact policy outcome.
2.2 Theoretical framework
Agenda-setting
Kingdon’s Multiple Streams Theory (MST) argues policy windows open up that enable an issue to gain enough traction to reach the decision agenda. These windows of opportunity open when the “the stars line up” for a certain period in time and close relatively quickly (Kingdon,
14 2011, p.166). The stars line up when three streams converge; the problem stream, the policy stream and the political stream. Policy entrepreneurs who wish to make use of these windows need to be prepared and ready to take immediate action once a window opens up. Drawing upon the theory, this thesis focusses on the problem stream. The problem stream concerns the recognition of the problem. Kingdon recognises three ways of recognition, namely problem indicators, focusing events and feedback. The thesis analyses if Extinction Rebellion was effective in demanding attention of policy makers and opening a window of opportunity for climate policy by examining problem these indicators, focusing events and feedback. Problem indicators do exactly that; they indicate there is a problem. It can be a direct experience, such as higher temperatures or an increase in bush fires. An individual can feel, see, experience the indicator. Often though, indicators are abstract and quantitative (Liu et al., 2011, p. 406). This is especially true for climate change. Rising water levels, CO2 emissions, land depletion and long-term temperature trends are invisible to the eye but can be measured with quantitative data. Focusing events, (Kingdon 2003; Birkland 1998, 2007;) triggering events (Birkland 1998, 2004) and information shocks (Jones & Baumgartner, 2005) are events that “push that concern above the noise threshold of other issues” (Liu et al., 2011, p. 406). They grab the attention of decision makers (Liu et al., 2011, p. 405). Disasters and crises such as oil spills and hurricanes are all good examples of focusing events. When there is an oil spill or a hurricane strikes, climate change may become more salient and be a high priority, only to fade away when a different issue takes up the attention of politicians (Pralle, 2009, pp. 784-785). Although regular focusing events might directly impact public opinion, focusing events in the form of protests need the intervention of the media to be successful in their agenda-setting efforts (Vliegenthart et al., 2016). Feedback (Kingdon 2003), or information feedback (Jones & Baumgartner 2005) is the feedback that policy elites receive. Although some feedback finds its way to policy makers through internal structures such as daily experiences, most comes via the external route (Liu et al., 2011, p. 407). An extensive body of literature has been devoted to the multiple complex feedback loops that exist in modern political systems (Wolfe et al., 2013, pp. 179-180). These non-recursive interactions make cause-and-effect relations hard to determine (Wolfe et al., 2013, pp. 179-180). However, media attention and public opinion are two feedback loops that can be examined. Politicians are generally considered rational and goal-oriented actors (Jones, 1999, p. 318). Assuming a policy-maker’s goal is to stay in office, which is dependent on electoral success, their aim is to get as many votes as possible come election time (Strøm and
15 Müller, 1999, p. 25). The public mood then becomes a good indicator of whether politicians will grant an issue a place on the political agenda (Giger & Klüver, 2012, p. 3). This thesis examines if Extinction Rebellion was able to influence the feedback of media attention and issue salience by altering problem indicator communication and creating focusing events.
Framing
This thesis examines not only if Extinction Rebellion influenced agenda-setting of climate change, but also if they influenced framing of climate change in parliamentary debates. The news not only alters if an issue is discussed, but also how the issue discussed. The media characterises an issue which has an impact on how the issue is understood by the audience (Scheufele & Tversky, 2007, p. 11). Communicators deliver information in such a way that it resonates with schemas that already exist among the audience (Shoemaker & Reese, 1996). It is an essential part of relating a story. The frames provide the framework for the audience to comprehend the story and is therefore important to sense-making. Research has found that how an issue is framed in the media, impacts the cognitive responses of individuals (Dardis et al., 2008) So, public opinion can be influenced by media framing. That is why media studies regard framing as “an unavoidable reality of the communication process” (Nisbet, 2009, p.15) Nisbet (2010) identified eight frames that dominate science-related issues in political debate in both the US and Europe (p. 49). Biotechnology, nuclear energy, teachings of evolution and climate change are all discussed according to Nisbets’ typology (Nisbet, 2010, p. 52). These issues are often technical and abstract, which means their implications are hard to grasp for the general public. It also means that it lends itself well to framing, because there is considerable room for interpretation (Stecula & Merkley, 2019, p. 2). In order for audiences to ‘connect the mental dots’ the following frames are used: 1) economic development and competitiveness, 2) conflict and strategy 3) pandora’s box, 4) social progress, 5) scientific and technical uncertainty, 6) public accountability and governance, 7) morality and ethics and 8) middle path/alternative way. These frames are not exclusive to a specific pro or anti argument. Scholars agree that individuals can still share an interpretive frame, while disagreeing on the issue (Gamson & Modigliani, 1989, p. 3) For example, individual A might argue that climate policy is a significant burden on citizens, with a drop in employment rates. Individual B might argue the opposite, that it is in fact attractive for citizens as it creates green jobs. They disagree, but both frame climate change as an economic issue. So, anti, pro and neutral arguments all exist in the same frame (Ferree, Gamson, Gerhards & Rucht, 2002, p. 106).
16 In an attempt to determine which frames Extinction Rebellion emphasises most, their core message has to be identified. Relying on the theoretical framework of Benford & Snow (2000) on social movement framing, their diagnostic, prognostic and motivational frames are identified. Adherents of a social movement ‘negotiate a shared understanding’ of a problematic condition in society that requires change, who or what to ascribe the blame to, determine an alternative path and a rationale for others to act (Benford & Snow, 2000, p. 615). Diagnostic, prognostic and motivational frames are the result of these negotiations and key to understanding the social movement. The diagnostic frame identifies the problem and then attributes this problem to something or someone by focusing blame and/or responsibility (Benford & Snow, 2000, p. 616). This is often achieved by dichotomous framing, called “boundary” or “adversarial” framing (Benford & Snow, 2000, p. 616). Constructing an ‘us vs. them’-narrative creates movement protagonists and antagonists. The prognostic frame puts forward a solution, or a plan of attack and the strategy for achieving the end goal (Benford & Snow, 2000, p. 616). Clear diagnostic and prognostic framing increase chances for achieving policy change (Benford & Snow, 2000, p. 632). The motivational frame encourages people to engage in collective action (Benford & Snow, 2000, p. 617). This frame focusses on the “agency” issue of social movements (Gamson, 1995, p. 90). It provides supporters with compelling reasons to join the movement or continue their participation (Benford & Snow, 2000, p. 617; Howe & Wilkes, 2019, p. 250). Essentially, it provides motive for participation.
Figure 1; Theoretical framework Feedback
Indicators Public opinion
Politicians Parliamentary Focusing events agenda (protest) News
Frames
Politicians Frames in parliamentary debate
17 Conclusion
Drawing upon Kingdon’s problem stream, this thesis will examine how problem indicators and focusing events influenced parliamentary debate. Problem indicators and focusing events alone do not guarantee a place on the policy agenda (Entwistle & Enticott, 2007, p. 194). However, they have the ability to shape the media and issue salience of the public, which can influence politicians as they use these outputs as feedback. So, for the agenda-setting analysis the thesis first examines if the media and public agendas were influenced by Extinction Rebellion indicators and focusing events. Then, it will look at the political debates to see if they translated into a spot on the policy agenda. For the framing analysis the thesis relies on the framework of Benford & Snow to identify the core messages of Extinction Rebellion, looking at the diagnostic, prognostic and motivational frames. Once the core frames are identified, they are categorised according to Nisbet’s typology. Nisbets’s typology applies to science-related debates, including the climate change debate. The typology consists of: 1) economic development and competitiveness, 2) conflict and strategy 3) pandora’s box, 4) social progress, 5) scientific and technical uncertainty, 6) public accountability and governance, 7) morality and ethics and 8) middle path/alternative way.
18 3. Methodology
This chapter will explain the methodological approach. It will first explain the general design, which will be explained in more detail in the subsequent paragraphs. First, the case selection specifies which sources were selected and why. The agenda-setting paragraphs expand on the media and content analysis for agenda-setting. The paragraphs on framing explain the coding rules for the content analysis for framing and operationalise Nisbet’s frames. Finally, the limitations of this thesis are discussed.
3.1 Design
The thesis is a case study that relies on a mixed-methods approach. It is divided into two sections, which have two different objectives. The first section focusses on agenda-setting and takes an explanative approach. It uses media analysis, data on issue salience and content analysis to determine if and explain how Extinction Rebellion influenced agenda-setting in the House of Commons. Media coverage has been identified as a vital component in the effectiveness of protests as agenda-setting tool, particularly for environmental issues (Vliegenthart et al., 2016). Analysing Extinction Rebellion’s agenda-setting capabilities without analysing the media would result in an explanative gap. Similarly, issue salience of the public is an indicator of elite behaviour (Wolfe et al., 2013, pp. 184) and can reflect if a focusing event made an impact on the general public. The content analysis for the agenda-setting will consist of a word count of significant words. The second section takes an exploratory approach to see if the agenda-setting, in this case, is accompanied by frame transference. Here, the main analysis is a content analysis. This kind of content analysis also does not allow an evaluation of attitudes. However, the objective is to merely assess if there is a change in frame composition after Extinction Rebellion action. As frames are considered to encompass all negative, positive and neutral arguments (Nisbet, 2009, p.18), there is no need to distinguish between different attitudes. A content analysis is a systematic approach that lends itself well to the analysis of the parliamentary documents. Raw data is transformed into single units of analysis, which are assigned a category. The frequency with which a category appears is then interpreted. For the agenda-setting section, certain data is examined both qualitatively and quantitively. References to Extinction Rebellion, their objectives, and the protests are examined both qualitatively and quantitively. These categories are the most essential to the research objective because they
19 reveal a direct impact on the debates. The other categories are examined quantitively in the form of a word count to discover any surrounding factors. The content analysis on the frames is examined quantitively to discover underlying patterns. Although frequency in a text does not communicate attitudes, it does convey the focus of attention to issues, which is the objective of this research (Holsti, 1969, p. 96).
3.2 Case selection
The central unit of analysis is the parliamentary conversation on climate change. To narrow the scope, parliamentary debates of the House of Commons were selected via Hansard that contained the word “climate” in the title and took place between January 1st, 2018 and May 1st, 2019. Debates of the House of Commons were selected because it is their task to create primary legislation. They propose and vote on legislation, which makes their duties representative of the governmental agenda. The house is publicly elected, which makes them more susceptible to public pressures. “Climate” was decided upon as search word for Hansard as it is the most direct and neutral option, that represents the issue and the frames equally. I opted for the specific time window because Extinction Rebellion was officially established on October 31st, 2018, and the House of Commons declared a Climate Emergency on May 1st 2019. The months before the establishment of Extinction Rebellion functions as an informal baseline. This selection has led to the selection of the following ten debates;
Figure 2. Overview of the selected debates.
Date Debate Location 1. 01-05-2018 Oral Answers: Paris Climate Change Agreement Commons Chamber 2. 13-11-2018 Climate Change: Extreme Weather Events Westminster Hall 3. 16-01-2019 UN Climate Change Conference: Government Westminster Hall Response 4. 22-01-2019 Oral Answers: Climate Change: International Co- Commons Chamber operation 5. 23-04-2019 Climate Action and Extinction Rebellion Commons Chamber 6. 23-04-2019 Climate Change Policy Commons Chamber 7. 30-04-2019 Oral Answers: Climate Change: Discussions with Commons Chamber DEFRA
20 8. 30-04-2019 Climate Change (Net Zero U.K. Carbon Account) Commons Chamber 9. 01-05-2019 Oral Answers: Climate Change Commons Chamber 10. 01-05-2019 Environment and Climate Change Commons Chamber
Extinction Rebellion’s website was taken as the primary source for examining Extinction Rebellion material. It comes closest to an official Extinction Rebellion manifesto. As Extinction Rebellion is an open movement, but with specific values and a specific message, they use their website to communicate them to their audience. Websites are widely accessible, and anyone looking for more information on the movement will most likely end up on their webpage. For first-hand accounts and Extinction’s view on the protests, the thesis also relies on their published official handbook: This is not a drill: An Extinction Rebellion handbook (2019). For the media analysis and issue salience, secondary sources were selected. Three papers were selected to achieve a balanced result in political orientation. The Daily Mail is a popular press newspaper and the second highest-selling paper in the U.K. (Mayhew, 2019). The Guardian and The Times are both broadsheets and considered more quality press (Okon Ikon, 2016, p. 58). The Guardian has a centre-left orientation, while The Times is considered centre- right paper (Wells, 2017; Smith, 2017). For issue salience, the thesis relies on data produced by Ipsos Mori and YouGov. They are both established and renowned research data and public opinion groups. They poll U.K. adults on what they consider the most important issues facing Britain on a continuous basis, and their methods have been subjected to academic examination (Twyman, 2008; (Jennings & Wlezien, 2011, p. 552). Data from these groups is used more frequently in peer-reviewed articles (Millie, 2008; Dennison & Goodwin, 2015; Dennison, 2018).
3.4 Agenda-setting
Media analysis
First, all headlines between April 15th, 2019 and April 26th, 2019 were collected to explore how often the April protests made the front page. Often, readers will only glance at the headlines, and only a small percentage reads full articles (Dor, 2003, p. 720). To draw people into reading or buying the paper, editors carefully construct headlines (Dor, 2003, p. 696). So, subjects for headlines are selected because editors believe they interest its readers and they
21 reach a larger audience than full articles. Therefor, a headline is a good indicator of what is considered the most interesting news of the day and an indicator of issue salience, as it is read by the largest group. The front pages were tracked down through a search on twitter. Most are available on the official twitter accounts of the three newspapers. The ones that were not on these accounts were tracked down with the handle #tomorrowspapertoday. There are several users who receive the front pages of papers the evening before distribution and publish them online. The selected users are BBC employers. The subjects of the headlines were compiled in an overview (see appendix 3), and Extinction Rebellion subjects were highlighted. The users are documented in the references and the footnotes of the appendix. Subsequently, a Factiva search was performed on the three papers. All articles between October 1st, 2018 and May 1st, 2019 were selected to reflect the period between the start of Extinction Rebellion on October 31st, 2018 and the declaration of a climate emergency on May 1st, 2019. They were searched for mentions of ‘Extinction Rebellion’, ‘Climate emergency’, ‘citizens’ assembly (and extinction)’ ‘net zero 2025’, ‘Climate protests’, ‘Climate change’ to see if Extinction Rebellion, their protests and their demands for a climate emergency, citizens’ assembly and net zero 2025 legislation generated media attention. ‘Climate change’ was used in two searches. One included articles mentioning ‘protest’ or ‘rebellion’, while the other excluded any articles mentioning either term to examine if the April protests only resulted in articles about the protests themselves, or if they also led to an increase in articles solely on climate change. All results were filtered for identical duplicates. The results were then graphed to get a temporal overview of the change in media output. Results and graphs by other studies into the representation of climate change and global warming in all U.K. newspapers over a twenty-year period supplement the results.
Political impact
A content analysis was performed on the selected debates to quantify the use of selected words that relate to Extinction Rebellion in an effort to determine if they impacted the parliamentary conversation. The unit of analysis were single words, and only words that were decided upon beforehand were coded. All selected words (see figure 3) were located through a lexical search. Then, all words were evaluated to see if they referred to the intended meaning of the words and coded accordingly. Once the coding was completed, the frequency of the words in that document was divided by the total word count of the document to give a percentage. The
22 weighted numbers allowed for a comparison of the debates, even though their lengths varied significantly. All references to ‘Extinction Rebellion’ were coded as such. References to their three demands were also coded (Extinction Rebellion U.K., n.d.-d). To track Extinction’s first demand for a climate emergency throughout the debates, all references to ‘declar’ were coded as ‘climate emergency declaration’ if they also had ‘climate’ and ‘emergency’ somewhere in the same sentence. All references that refer to the second demand for net zero emissions by 2025 was coded as 2025. A search for 2025 revealed other targets, such as financial targets within the COP24 framework. These references were excluded. Only if the 2025 referred to net zero emissions they were accepted. Later, the code 2050 was added, as 2025 was considered unrealistic in the debates. Net zero remained on the agenda, but with 2050 as goal – so the code was added. The third demand for a ‘Citizens’ assembly’ was coded as such. Any references to protests in general were coded to see if any focusing events translated to parliamentary debate. These include: ‘protest’, ‘demonstration’, ‘demonstrators’, ‘strike’, ‘striking’, ‘strikers’, ‘activists’ and ‘activism’. ‘Greta Thunberg’ and ‘schoolchildren’ are also included in the analysis. Although Greta is the figurehead of her own movement (School strike for Climate), she gave a speech at the establishment of Extinction Rebellion. Her presence and active input into the Extinction Rebellion movement aligned their efforts, but it would not give a fair representation to include them in the ‘protest’. However, they should be included as they also might have influenced agenda-setting of climate change. Furthermore, all references to ‘emergency’, ‘crisis’, ‘disaster’ and ‘catastrophe’ were coded as crisis synonyms. The code was selected to reflect Extinction Rebellion conceptualisation of climate change as an emergency (Extinction Rebellion U.K., n.d.-e). The coding excludes references to “declaring emergency”, as it is a separate code. References to “emergency responders” and “natural disasters” were also filtered out. These do not reflect the objective of the code to discover if climate change was conceptualised as a crisis. Although ‘combative language’ seems similar to the ‘crisis’ synonyms, they differ. ‘Crisis synonyms’ examine the direct and explicit conceptualisation of climate change as an emergency, while ‘combative language’ examines the more implicit conceptualisation of climate change as an emergency. For instance, ‘climate change threatens to ..’ implies climate change is conceptualised as a crisis that will harm, but it does not explicitly acknowledge it as such. To uncover if politicians might conceptualise climate as a crisis without being explicitly vocal ‘threat’, ‘fight’, ‘combat’, ‘survival’, ‘survive’, ‘war’ and ‘conflict’ are all coded as
23 combative language. All are filtered for anything that does not refer to climate change, e.g. “conflict zones”,“Brexit threatens to” and “to survive the policy cycle”.
Figure 3. Codebook agenda-setting (see appendix 1 for full codebook)
Code Words Crisis synonyms • emergency • crisis • disaster • catastrophe Combative language • threat • fight • combat • survival, survive • war • conflict Declaration of a climate emergency • declar Protests (general) • protest • demonstration • demonstrators • strike, striking, strikers • activists, activism Extinction Rebellion • Extinction Rebellion Citizens’ assembly • assembly Greta Thunberg • Greta • Thunberg Schoolchildren • schoolchildren • school • children 2025 • 2025 (net zero by) 2050 • 2050 (net zero by)
3.5 Framing
The framing section first looks at the diagnostic, prognostic and motivational frames that Extinction Rebellion communicated with its audiences, based on their website, their demands, their logo and statements in newspaper articles and tweets. The frames were then categorised according to Nisbet’s typology, after which a second content analysis was performed. The second analysis is a quantitative analysis. Every paragraph is considered a unit of analysis and receives a code. The typology serves as the coding structure, with some slight alterations (see appendix 2 for codebook). All of these frames are neutral and disregard any attitude of the argument (Nisbet, 2009, p.18). So, an argument can be either in favour or against renewable energy as a means to revive the economy; it is an economic development and competitiveness frame either way. Sometimes it is not directly apparent which frame is used because there are multiple themes in one unit of analysis. In such cases, the occurrence of each
24 theme is counted and coded according to the prevalent theme. In cases where different themes are represented equally, it is up to the coder to exercise her judgement. After coding, each category of frames within a document was divided by the total units in that document to give a percentage. The weighted numbers allowed for a comparison of the debates, even though they varied significantly in total units of analysis. Nisbet compiled the typology through a literature analysis of numerous studies (Gamson & Modigliani 1989; Dahinden 2002; Durant, Bauer & Gaskell 1998; Nisbet & Lewenstein 2002). The following frames were identified: 1) economic development and competitiveness, 2) conflict and strategy 3) pandora’s box, 4) social progress, 5) scientific and technical uncertainty, 6) public accountability and governance, 7) morality and ethics and 8) middle path/alternative way. It is based on American politics and highly influenced by the partisan divide on climate change. The middle way frame, which proposes “a third way between conflicting and polarised views or options” (Nisbet, 2009, p.18) is taken out of the analysis, because it does not represent an underlying theme that is relevant for this analysis. Similarly, the typology is also used for the analysis of media output, where a third party -the journalist- interprets information and relays it. As such, the conflict & strategy is focussed on the observations of the journalists who is “winning or losing the debate”. With primary sources, this frame is irrelevant and I have reinterpreted it to geopolitical strategy. So, the frames used in the thesis are 1) pandora’s box, 2) economic development and competitiveness, 3) scientific and technical uncertainty, 4) public accountability and governance, 5) social progress, 6) morality and ethics, 7) geopolitical strategy and 8) other.
Operationalisation of frames
Pandora’s box Pandora’s box relies on the presentation of the overwhelming consequences of climate change (Nisbet, 2009, p.19), either in the past or in the future. Generally, it lists multiple events or scientific predictions and expresses the need for action. The frame is one that is often used with others. The extreme consequences of climate change are used to make a point that fits in another frame. That is why I choose to distinguish between “overwhelming” consequences (such as multiple deaths, extinction (either human, flora or fauna), large parts of uninhabitable lands and subsequent mass migration) and consequences specified towards a smaller case. The latter category has the goal to invoke and illustrate another frame. Smaller consequences are
25 often used to give a reason for e.g. economic development frame. Units that had the “overwhelming” consequences are coded as pandora’s box. When multiple consequences that fit in different frames are named in succession of each other, they are also coded as pandora’s box. The objective of these units is to illustrate “out-of-control” consequences. Units that mention consequences to illustrate another category are coded according to that specific category (e.g. the costs of flood-related damages that have occurred is coded as economic development and competitiveness).
Economic development and competitiveness Politicians invoke the economic development and competitiveness frame when they refer to climate change as an economic issue. It can be a market risk or benefit, a means of increasing or decreasing competitiveness or an economic investment (Nisbet, 2009, p.18). For example, the price drop of new technologies and export opportunities for green technologies are market benefits. “Green jobs” is a framing device which instantaneously relates economic argumentation to climate change (Nisbet, 2009, p.18).
Scientific and technical uncertainty Scientific and technical uncertainty regards to the scientific debate that has plagued this issue. Originating in the U.S. in the 1990s (Nisbet, 2009, p.18), the doubt on the scientific certainty blew over to Europe. Albeit to a lesser degree, doubts about (human-induced) climate have also been detected in the U.K. (Whitmarsh, 2011, p. 691). It has led to a perceived need to confirm or endorse the scientific consensus, even if there is no dissenting voice. So, the frame concerns the discussion, mentioning or endorsement of either side of the debate on expert understanding or consensus on climate change.
Public accountability and governance frame The public accountability and governance frame concerns “policy in the public interest or serving special interest, emphasising issues of control, transparency, participation, responsiveness, or ownership; or debate over proper use of science and expertise in decisionmaking” (Nisbet, 2009, p. 18) Unfortunately, it becomes an umbrella category in parliamentary debates. All governmental debates inherently have the goal to establish what should and should not be governmentally regulated and how. That is why the code is only assigned if no other code fits. In case investments, feed-in tariffs, exporting tariffs are discussed, the economic development and competitiveness frame is assigned. I recognise that
26 officially this is policy, but the main concern is how these policies are framed. That means that the reasonings and justifications for those policies are interesting and are coded accordingly. Often, a policy is merely proposed or mentioned without framing device or justification, or the justification follows in the next paragraph. If this is the case, it is coded as public accountability and governance. When it is an enumeration of current or preferred governmental actions, which include several frames and not one specifically, it is coded also coded as public accountability and governance. Because when multiple policies are mentioned, the objective of the argument is to convince the listener it is the government’s responsibility to act, not to convince them of the economic/social progress/morality motivations of one policy
Social progress When climate change mitigation is framed as a means of social progress, it refers to “improving the quality of life or solving problems; alternative interpretation as a way to be in harmony with nature instead of mastering it” (Nisbet, 2009, p.18). I find that this is a rather broad category, which can overlap with multiple frames, such as morality and ethics, economic competitiveness and public accountability. Alleviating poverty, rebalancing the financial burden of climate change action from poorer to wealthier and protecting the earth for future generations all end up in a grey area. That is why I decided to limit the frame to issues such as the protection of the natural world (e.g. biodiversity, forest preservation, fauna decline), personal well-being and public health. Framing climate change as a public health issue highlights the health benefits of climate action and/or the harmful implications of not undertaking action and brings the issue closer to home for the audience (Nisbet, 2009, p.22). It was found to provoke attitudes in favour of climate action and effective in sparking hopeful emotions in respondents (Myers, Nisbet, Maibach & Leiserowitz, 2012, p. 1109). Generic statements such as “creating better lives” without economic or moral reasoning will also be coded as social progress.
Morality and ethics Through morality and ethics climate change is framed as a moral/ethical issue. The responsibility of developed nations to account for the industrial revolution and accompanying emissions, to mitigate the impact of climate change on developing nations, to alleviate poverty and the moral responsibility towards future generations (Chetty, Devadas & Fleming, 2015, p. 5). For this category there are signifiers such as; duty, responsibility, obligation, moral authority, poverty.
27 Geopolitical strategy As previously mentioned, the conflict and strategy frame is reinterpreted into a geopolitical strategy frame for the purpose of this analysis. Research has indicated that climate change debates often see framing that connect nations, either through cooperation or insecurity (Dewulf, 2013). The geopolitical strategy frames climate change as either an issue of international (in)security or as an issue of cooperation. Climate change can impact the security of a nation through relocation of borders (e.g. melted icecaps connecting U.S. to Russia) and increased need for physical protection against other nations or increased dependence on a nation for energy or food. Combating climate change can also call for international cooperation, working together to combat climate change. Signifiers are references to international platforms such as the UN Climate Change Conference (COP) or the European Union or to diplomacy. When speakers refer to internationally set targets there are two options; either geopolitical strategy or public accountability and governance. It falls under geopolitical strategy when the internationally agreed upon targets or their framework are referred to in general, or when it questions how the U.K. will get other nations to uphold the targets. When they are mentioned to illustrate the point that the government is not taking sufficient action to achieve the targets set out for the U.K., the unit is coded as public accountability and governance.
Other The final category is other. This category is present to ensure that the code book is exhaustive and is attributed to paragraphs that do not fit in any of the designated categories. Most often these are paragraphs on procedural remarks or the introduction of new Members of Parliament.
3.6 Limitations
Often, agenda-setting is studied through time-series analysis over longer periods of time. The data is organised across units of time, which can reveal trends. It is considered a robust methodology for ascertaining causation in agenda-setting (Meraz, 2011, p. 181). However, Extinction Rebellion is a relatively new activist group. So, there is a limited amount of data available. Mere months passed between the establishment of Extinction Rebellion on 31st of October 2018 and the declaration on the 1st of May 2019. That leaves the analysis of Extinction Rebellion limited to a relative short period of time. Therefore, a more in-depth analysis is
28 required. It does not, and cannot, systematically track long-term relationships that might exists between different framing strategies (Cormier & Tindall, 2005, p.1). With both agenda-setting and framing causation is difficult to establish. In the social world there are so many variables, it is nearly impossible to create a controlled environment in which you determine causality. Therefore, the objective is to determine correlations rather than causal relationships. Furthermore, the content analysis does not have the ability to uncover motives of politicians. It analyses what is said in parliamentary debates, but politicians are not always forthcoming and might have alternative agendas that could explain certain choices. Unfortunately, without interviews these cannot be uncovered. And perhaps not even with them. Furthermore, no analysis is ever entirely objective. The researcher always interprets the data, and every researcher has conscious and unconscious biases. Content analysis tries to approach objectivity as closely as possible by deciding upon a coding framework with coding rules before the analysis. However, deciding upon a coding framework and coding rules is also subject to biases.
29 4. Agenda-setting
The chapter will first analyse the pressure Extinction Rebellion has exerted on the political system in an attempt to put climate change on the political agenda. The first part discusses Extinction Rebellion goals, strategies, protests. Then it will consider the impact of the problem indictors, focusing events and feedback by analysing how the media and public opinion responded. Finally, it will look at the parliamentary debates to uncover if Extinction Rebellion’s efforts translated to agenda-setting of climate change in Parliament.
4.1 Extinction Rebellion agenda-setting
Extinction Rebellion is an organisation that is decentralised and open to anyone and everyone who shares their values (Extinction Rebellion, n.d.-a). They organise local, regional, national and international events where anyone is free to join. In order to communicate their views and values clearly and effectively to such a splintered and spread-out audience, Extinction Rebellion has dedicated their website to explaining their vision, organisational structure, demands and their strategy to achieve their goals. Although they mainly share broad visions and abstract ideas for a future, they do have three concrete demands. Their first demand is that the government will “tell the truth by declaring a climate and ecological emergency, working with other institutions to communicate the urgency for change” (Extinction Rebellion U.K., n.d.-d). Secondly, they require the government to act quickly to ensure that biodiversity loss is halted, and greenhouse-gas emissions are reduced to net zero by 2025 (Extinction Rebellion U.K., n.d.-d). Finally, they call for a Citizens’ Assembly to lead the government on matters of climate and ecological justice (Extinction Rebellion U.K., n.d.-d). All Extinction Rebellion actions seem designed to instil the urgency of climate change in citizens and politicians alike, and to bring these three demands on the political agenda. This section will analyse problem indicators and triggering events in instigated by Extinction Rebellion and judge their effectiveness by looking at media attention, public opinion and the informational feedback politicians received. It will first describe Extinction Rebellion goals and strategy, before discussing problem indicators and focusing events. Finally, Extinction Rebellion’s influence on agenda-setting will be examined through an analysis of media attention, public opinion and quotes of politicians.
30 4.2. Extinction Rebellion framework and strategy
Extinction Rebellion’s approach is centred around the civil resistance model. Civil resistance is continuous, non-violent action carried out by civilians against an opponent that is not against using violence (Schock, 2013, p. 277). Studies have found that non-violent civil resistance campaigns are twice as likely to be effective compared to violent campaigns (Stephan & Chenoweth, 2008, p. 8). It increases legitimisation of the movement, and it encourages others to participate (Stephan & Chenoweth, 2008, p. 9). Broad-based participation is necessary to increase pressure on the target, in this case the U.K. government. The open and decentralised nature of the organisation lends itself well to broad-based participation. Anyone who identifies with the values of the movement can simply join an event, or start a ‘Local Group’ or ‘Community Group’ if they wish to participate on a more regular basis. These Local Groups have been growing exponentially, showing up in large and small cities around the world (Extinction Rebellion U.K., n.d.-c). Currently, there are 1128 local groups in 69 countries (Extinction Rebellion, n.d.) In an effort to build a movement rather than an organisation, Extinction Rebellion has intentionally chosen to steer clear of a centralised strategy (Burns & Reimann, 2019, p. 106). They argue that it would lessen the intrinsic motivation of participants. They maintain people act according to their beliefs and if a centralised strategy deviates from that belief even slightly, supporters will lose interest (Burns & Reimann, 2019, p. 106). Instead, Extinction Rebellion tries to instil the urgency of the situation and share a vision for the future. Consequently, those who want to take action can do so in any way, shape or form – as long as it is non-violent action (Burns & Reimann, 2019, p. 106). It causes Extinction Rebellion to be a cell-structured, highly flexible and adaptive organisation (Amm, 2020). The primary tool of civil resistance is protesting. Extinction Rebellion’s take on the model requires six ingredients. First, people. Ideally, they would like to see several thousand protesters (Hallam, 2019, p.101). Second, the protest has to take place in the capital, where the government, the media and the elite reside. Their rationale is that these institutions do not care about protests as long as it is not in their immediate vicinity (Hallam, 2019, p.101). Third, civil disobedience: protesters need to break the law. They view it as essential to the non-violent effort for it “creates the social tension and the public drama which are vital to create change.” (Hallam, 2019, p. 101). In order to support the “underdog narrative”, to “show the public and the elites you are serious and unafraid” and to “create the necessary material disruption and economic cost which forces the elites to sit up and take notice” the rules need to be broken
31 (Hallam, 2019, p.101). But only as long as requirement four is observed: non-violence. If violence is allowed to get its foot in the door, the support base for the movement will diminish significantly. It is the golden rule that everyone has to follow (Hallam, 2019, p.101). Fifth, action has to be continuous and persistent. One protest will disappear from the news cycle too quickly if it even enters it at all. By creating “real economic cost for the bosses” they hope to generate media attention (Hallam, 2019, p. 102). For every extra day, a protest blocks a city the cost for the government and businesses increase exponentially, and reporting goes from ‘an issue’ to a ‘national crisis’ (Hallam, 2019, p.102). Finally, the artistic community needs to want to participate, because it needs to be a party, a festival. To show the media “we’re not sitting around waiting to die any longer”. (Hallam, 2019, p. 102). Protests are simply the tool with which social movements try to generate as much attention as possible to eventually achieve policy change. In order to reach as many people as possible, the media needs to be involved. So, Extinction Rebellion tailored their media strategy to their objective. To ensure that media coverage in the future was not limited to the arrests that would inevitably come with future protests, the media strategy was centred around making an effort to build a “solid and authentic” relationship with reporters (McNern, 2019, p. 127). With that in mind, Extinction Rebellion invited journalists to their first ever protest. Although Extinction Rebellion’s audience is everyone, they chose to start with people who were likely to be most receptive of their message. On October 17th of 2018, they shortly occupied the Greenpeace offices in London, where they brought a love letter with cake and flowers to the workers (McNern, 2019, p. 127; Real Media, 2018). They used the relatively friendly protests as an opportunity to start building rapport with the media (McNern, 2019, p. 127). Extinction Rebellion wanted to make sure that media attention was directed to their message and the context of the issue, not merely to their ‘tool’ of civil disobedience. That required time and willing ears, so they could explain the issue at stake and why they were protesting (McNern, 2019, p. 127). This reasoning is in line with what Walgrave and Vliegenthart (2012) found; initial coverage is often on the protests itself, but there is also an increase in attention to the underlying issue. Not just in coverage of the protests, but in other articles as well (Walgrave & Vliegenthart, 2012, p. 151). They found that this is precisely how mass media coverage of big protests has the ability to impact agenda-setting. So, Extinction Rebellion acted in accordance with the knowledge available on media coverage of protests and stimulated the desired coverage by building relationships with journalists to move beyond the initial spectacle of protests.
32
4.3. Problem Indicators
Problem indicators are made up out of direct and indirect experiences. Indirect experiences of climate change have been present for years. Data on rising CO2 levels, temperatures, melting polar caps, rising water levels have been around for decades (IPPC, 2007). In 1988, the UN established the IPCC to assess climate science and their reports are considered the benchmark for climate literature. In October 2018, they released a report warning of the dangerous effects of current global warming trends. Unfortunately, this kind of data is rather abstract to the average audience and has low readability (Barkemeyer, Dessai, Monge-Sanz & Napolitano, 2015, p. 312). It is difficult for audiences to connect the information to their everyday lives. Direct experiences can only serve as indicators when they are attributed to climate change. If not, a warm day is simply a warm day and not a signifier of something bigger. In the last fifteen years, research has made strides in attributing extreme weather events such as cyclones, wildfires, heatwaves and floods to climate change (National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2016, p. 105). Although data is limited, early research seems to indicate that first-hand, direct experience with extreme weather events increased public concern about climate change, increased conviction that it exists and that personal action can impact it. These combined then resulted in behavioural change (Spence, Poortinga, Butler & Pidgeon, 2011). Of course, waiting for every person to be hit by an extreme weather event is less than desirable. When social movements frame their message in such a way that it resonates with the people they wish to mobilise, they become more salient (Benford & Snow, 2000, p. 621). Connecting the message to personal, everyday experiences is an effective way to do so (Benford & Snow, 2000, p. 621). Therefore, the task of a climate movement is not so much to create problem indicators, but rather to clearly communicate already existing ones and connect them to everyday life. In their explanation of ‘the emergency’, Extinction Rebellion first states ‘the science is clear’ (Extinction Rebellion U.K., n.d.-e). The statement communicates confidently that there is no scientific uncertainty on climate change, which they then corroborate with statements by affluential academics and politicians, such as Prof. Montgomery and Ban Ki-Moon. They then continue to connect the consequences of climate change to issues that impact everyday life. The extinction of insects is connected to food scarcity and human survival (Extinction Rebellion U.K., n.d.-e). Greenhouse gasses are connected to extreme weather events that result in causalities, unhabitable lands and food scarcity (Extinction Rebellion U.K., n.d.-e). Air
33 pollution is connected to health issues and high mortality rates (Extinction Rebellion U.K., n.d.-e). Rising temperatures are connected to (drink)water scarcity, rising sea levels to floods (Extinction Rebellion U.K., n.d.-e). They also connect climate change to a large array of relatively common diseases, from asthma to diabetes to high blood pressure which is an effective strategy. Presenting climate change as a health issue has been proven to increase personal relevance and engagement (Myers et al., 2012). The large number and common nature of the illnesses they list increase the likelihood that the audience identifies with the concern. So, although Extinction Rebellion has not created any problem indicators, they have made an effort to clearly communicate scientific data by connecting existing indicators to daily life. The next step is then to spread the information.
4.4. Focusing events
Extinction Rebellion protests
Through protests, Extinction Rebellion hoped to generate enough media and public attention to pressurize the political system in meeting their demands. They officially started on October 31st, 2018. Around a thousand people gathered on Parliament Square in London to hear the ‘Declaration of Rebellion’, with speakers such as Greta Thunberg and two Green Party MEPs (Taylor, 2018; Thunberg, 2019, pp. 6–13). Extinction Rebellion declared to be in “an open rebellion against the government of the United Kingdom” (Knight, 2019, p.10). In the following two weeks, there were several single acts of disobedience and coordinated protests in London. Protesters glued themselves to the gates of Downing Street, closed off access to U.K.'s Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and an access road to Trafalgar Square. The largest protest saw 6,000 people occupy the five bridges that cross the River Thames in London (Taylor, 2019a). Then, in December the BBC headquarters in London was placed under lockdown after ensuing protests at multiple BBC locations in U.K. cities. They protested against the BBC’s “failure to report” on climate change and demanded that the BBC use its status to declare ‘a climate and ecological emergency’ (Waterson, 2018). In January, February and the beginning of April, there were single acts of disobedience and smaller protests, including protests at Fashion Week London (Read, 2019). Starting on April 15th, the protests of April 2019 brought London to a standstill for 11 days. People of all ages, ethnicities and professions gathered to disrupt regular life to bring
34 attention to climate change. The main focus lay on five iconic locations; Waterloo Bridge, Oxford Circus, Parliament Square, Marble Arch and Piccadilly Circus (Knight, 2019, p.10). Protesters occupied busy intersections and caused major traffic holdups (BBC News, 2019b). Although the protests have been reported to be largely peaceful with a positive atmosphere and creative performances all around the city, they were accompanied by arrests and damages to properties (Taylor, 2019c). Graffiti writing was visible throughout the city (although mostly with washable chalk graffiti), and protesters shattered the revolving door at Shell headquarters (Taylor, 2019b). The disruptions cost businesses an estimated 12 million in the first two days alone (McCormick, 2019) and cost the police an estimated 7.5 million pounds (BBC News, 2019d).
Protests as focusing event
Protests are a crucial part of most social movements, but not all protests are equally effective in affecting the parliamentary agenda. So, how does a protest become a focusing event? A focusing event is a ‘crisis or disaster that comes along to call attention to the problem’ (Kingdon, 2003, pp. 94-95). Media attention is indispensable to focusing events. How the event is portrayed, specifically in the mass media, ‘inclines large numbers of people to perceive a particular condition as a social problem which requires an official response’ (Entwistle and Enticott, 2007, p. 194). In the U.K., protests have no direct effect on agenda-setting; all effects run entirely via mass media Vliegenthart et al. found (2016, p. 852). Protest events produce media coverage of those protests, which generates a boost in articles on the underlying issue. The increased attention to the underlying issue is what affects agenda-setting (Vliegenthart et al., 2016, p. 838). So, only protests that generated a considerable increase in media attention can be considered a focusing event. The scale, frequency and degree of disruption are important factors in generating media attention (Oliver & Meyer, 1999; Myers & Caniglia, 2004; Amenta et al., 2009). The larger the protest, the more likely the media will dedicate space to it. The earlier Extinction Rebellion protests were relatively small. Some consisted of single acts of rebellion involving just a few people, and the earlier protests drew only 1,000 to 6,000 people. The disruption levels were also relatively low. However, the ten days of rebellion in April drew thousands of protesters and resulted in 1,135 arrests. (BBC News, 2019b). London was inaccessible by car for most of the protests, with major traffic jams. Due to the prolonged nature of the April protests,
35 economic costs for the city and businesses increased with each day (BBC news, 2019d). So, these protests were large and highly disruptive. An analysis of news articles mentioning Extinction Rebellion shows that their first protests led to some coverage of their first events in and around November (see figure 4). Their subsequent protest events from December to February produced very little media attention. Then, while their protests grew and became increasingly disruptive, media attention increased. In April, a clear spike in articles mentioning Extinction Rebellion can be observed. Of all Extinction Rebellion protests events, the protests in April are most likely to have had an effect on issue salience in citizens and parliamentary debates.
Figure 4. Articles mentioning Extinction Rebellion
4.5. Feedback
Media response
The April protests were effective in generating media coverage of the protests, climate change and the call for a climate emergency. An examination of the front pages of The Daily Mail, The Guardian and The Times during the April protests shows that they made headlines eight times; twice on the cover of the Daily Mail, three times on the front page of The Guardian and four times on The Times’ cover, with an additional three editions that had small references to
36 the pages that covered the protests (see appendix 3). So, the April protests were large and disruptive enough to gain consecutive places on the front page of the papers. When examining these three newspapers further, a surge in coverage can be observed. Articles mentioning Extinction Rebellion spike from around 17 articles per month to 271 articles in April (see figure 4). After April, the frequency with which Extinction Rebellion is mentioned decreases, but still remained well above pre-protest levels. Similarly, ‘climate emergency’ appeared on average in 10 articles per month in October 2018 – March 2019 (see figure 7). On the local level, climate emergency declarations were not a completely new phenomenon. Bristol City Council was the first council to declare an emergency on 13 November 2018 (Climate Emergency Declaration, n.d.). These declarations on the local level swept over the U.K., with 113 councils in Wales, Scotland, England, Jersey and Northern Ireland declaring a climate emergency before the 1st of May 2019. Since then, another 347 councils and authorities have declared (Climate Emergency Declaration, n.d.). Although climate emergencies were not new, it is clearly visible that media attention to these declarations increased significantly. In April 2019, articles mentioning a climate emergency increased from an average of 10 articles per month to 72 articles - a 720% increase. After April references increased further, which can be explained by the coverage of the official declaration on the first of May.
Figure 5. Articles mentioning climate protest
37 Figure 6. Articles mentioning one of the three demands
Figure 7. Articles mentioning climate emergency
The three demands articulated by Extinction Rebellion all receive more attention in the month April. Of the three, the climate emergency clearly received the most attention and citizens’ assembly least. Figure 7 is a breakdown of the climate emergency per paper. The Guardian covers it significantly more than the rest. In an analysis of articles mentioning ‘climate protest’ the impact of the School Strike for Climate and Extinction Rebellion can clearly be seen. The School Strike for Climate movement, led by Greta Thunberg, held a global walkout on February 2019. It translated in a spike in media coverage of climate protests (see figure 5) and
38 in a spike in climate change coverage (see figure 8 and 9). The second incline corresponds with the April protests of Extinction Rebellion.
Figure 8. Articles mentioning climate change, including and excluding articles mentioning 'protest' or 'rebellion'
References to ‘climate change’ also spiked in these papers. Starting in October, a slight increase in coverage of climate change is visible. If you filter out ‘protests’ and ‘rebellion’ the increase is no longer visible. From that one can conclude that the establishment of Extinction Rebellion with the accompanying protests was most likely responsible for the slight rise. The significant spike starting in March can most likely be attributed to climate movements. On February 15, the School Strike for Climate movement held a globally coordinated walkout, which seems to have resulted in more media coverage. The largest spike occurs during and after the April protests of Extinction Rebellion. Interestingly, when ‘protest’ and ‘rebellion’ are filtered out it becomes more apparent that the spike’s incline coincides with the April protests. It seems to indicate that the protests not only resulted in media coverage on the protests themselves, but also to increased media attention to the underlying issue of climate change. The media acted as a dual mediator, which is in line with what Vliegenthart et al. found (2016, p. 850). A study on newspaper coverage among all U.K. newspapers also found coverage of ‘climate change’ and ‘global warming’ between 2009 and 2019 was at its height during and right after the April 2019 protests – only just equalled by reporting on the Copenhagen UN Climate Summit ten years earlier (Carbon Brief [@CarbonBrief], 2019). Reporting on the Paris Climate Agreement in December 2015 was a close third. A second study examined how often ‘climate change’ and ‘global warming’ were mentioned during a twenty-year period in British newspapers (see figure 10). Starting in 2000, they found the same three major spikes; December 2009 (Copenhagen UN Summit), December 2015 (Paris Agreement) and May 2019. The May 2019 spike is more prolonged, starting in February and increasing drastically over the course of April (Chandler et al., 2020). The initial increase in coverage in February
39 coincides with the school strike of the School Strike for Climate movement. The stronger increase in April is right on par with the Extinction Rebellion protests. News coverage of the climate declaration of the U.K. government resulted in the peak.
Figure 9. Climate change or global warming
Source: (Chandler et al., 2020)
Issue salience
Typically, salience is measured with surveys that ask what the subject considers ‘the most important problem facing the country’ (Wlezien, 2005, p. 557). These responses are equated with salience. If the environment is said to be the most important issue to that individual, the issue is salient to that specific person. When a higher percentage of respondents consider environment to be more important than any other issue, the issue is most salient to the public (Wlezien, 2005, p. 558). The salience of climate change has been rising steadily over the last ten years. Polling indicates Britons increasingly consider the environment as one of the most important issues facing Great Britain (Ipsos Mori, 2019a; 2019b). Before the protests it was in the top 7 of perceived issue importance under adults in the U.K.. The April protests have accelerated this trend significantly. They increased issue salience to such an extent, that within 15 days, the environment rose to the top 5 (Ipsos Mori, 2019a). Within a month, the environment was considered the top 3 most important issues facing Britain the next month (YouGov, 2016– 2019).
40 Figure 10. Issue salience among U.K. citizens
Source:YouGov in Smith, 2019
Similarly, public concern had not been that high since July 1990 (Ipsos Mori, 2019b). It is the largest jump the poll saw in at least three years across all categories. Since then, the environment has averaged as the 4th most important issue (YouGov, 2019–2020), implying the April protests were very effective in creating awareness and sustainably increasing salience. Issue salience is equally divided between genders before and after the protests. It is also relatively consistent throughout the different age groups, although the issue is more salient in citizens in in the 18-24 and 45-54 brackets (Ipsos Mori, 2019b). The protests seem to have impacted citizens under 55 more than above. Before the protests 55+ers expressed more salience than 55- (15% and 13%). After the protests age groups under 55 demonstrated an increase of salience of 9%, whereas the over-55-group only rose with 3% (Ipsos Mori, 2019a; 2019b). Occupation seems a good indicator of salience, with citizens in managerial, academic and administrative professions indicating higher salience (Ipsos Mori, 2019b). Manual workers indicate lower levels of salience. However, this is the group where the protests seem to have made a slightly bigger impact. Before the protests only 5% of manual workers expressed salience compared to 21% salience of administrative workers (Ipsos Mori, 2019a) After the protests the salience in administrative professions grew to 27%, while under manual workers
41 to 12% (Ipsos Mori, 2019b). Interestingly, the protests had no effect on conservative voters. Both before and after the protests 16% indicated issue salience for climate change. Labour voters increased from 17% to 22%. So, the April protests clearly increased the issue salience of climate change under U.K. citizens. The impact on men and women was equal and on age groups slightly different, with more impact on citizens under the age of 55. Although citizens in managerial, academic and administrative professions indicate higher levels of salience, the impact on manual workers was slightly higher. Conservative voters displayed no increase in issue salience, while labour voters increased by 5%.
4.6. Political impact
With the April protests Extinction Rebellion created a focusing event that brought attention to the issue of climate change. There was an increase in media attention and in public issue salience. But did it also impact the political arena? To answer that question, the next part will analyse the political debates that concerned climate change.
Time frame
Two things are evident during a cursory look at the debates. First, the time frame of all debates concerning climate change in 2018 and half of 2019. In 2018, only two debates have the word ‘climate’ in the title. One was a question posed about the Paris Climate Change Agreement in the Oral Answers segment of the House of Commons and the other concerned consequences of the extreme weather events the U.K. has seen in recent years. At the beginning of 2019, there was again a debate and an oral answer in response to the UN Climate Change Conference. Then in quick succession there are 6 debates on climate change. The first of these debates is near the end of the April protests. Secondly, the ‘first’ of these debates is dedicated to ‘Climate Action and Extinction Rebellion’. Parts of the debate were devoted to the security and financial implications of the protests, with some condemning the protests (Perry, 2019, p. 602; Wilson, 2019, p. 613) and others defending their actions (Miliband, 2019, p. 602; Lucas, 2019a, p. 608; Swinson, 2019, p.621). Regardless of the direction of the debate, Extinction Rebellion evidently generated enough attention around their efforts for they themselves to receive a place on the political agenda and with that their demands and issue: climate change.
42
Introduction Net zero 2050 bill Declaration of Rebellion Rebellion Day 1 April protests XR Rebellion Day 2 Figure 11. Timeline Occupation BBC HQ Climate change declaration
U.K.
School strike t Zero Zero t Environment and CC and Environment ClimateChange Policy CC:Ne
op -
OA:Paris Climate Ch. ClimateAction and XR OA:CC OA:CC: DEFRRA Climatechange: Exte. OA:CC; Int. Co UNCCC: Gov. Respon. Gov. UNCCC:
Focusing events
An analysis of the debates reveals that Extinction Rebellion is mentioned relatively little (see figure 13). Greta Thunberg and the school strikers are mentioned more frequently, possibly because they make a more sympathetic subject. Schoolchildren invoke an image of helpless children that adults need to protect. Moreover, adults are the perpetrators who have created climate chance, saddling the children with the consequences. It is an effective imagery that triggers the morality and ethics frame, which will be discussed in the second part of the analysis. Although Extinction Rebellion is not mentioned frequently, references to their protests are evident. Not only are the protests mentioned in the debate on Extinction Rebellion, but also in subsequent debates.
43 It confirms that the protests functioned as a focusing event exerting pressure on the political system and requiring political action.
Figure 12. Climate activism mentioned
April protests XR
Extinction Rebellion demands
In the first debate after the start of the protests, Edward Miliband posed four questions to the Minister for Energy and Clean Growth, Claire Perry: 1) to persuade the Prime Minister to declare a climate emergency, 2) to formally respond to the recommendation of the Committee on Climate Change on hitting zero emissions, 3) committing to working on a green deal on scale, 4) to “take up the idea of Extinction Rebellion and others to involve the public in these discussions [..] with a process of citizen deliberation?” (Miliband, 2019, pp. 602- 603). The first and fourth question are direct transpositions of the first and third demand of Extinction Rebellion. The second question touched upon Extinction’s demand to hit zero emissions by 2025, but only in the loosest terms. Claire Perry later discusses the demand and states that it is an unfeasible demand (Perry, 2019, p. 617). So, all three demands of Extinction Rebellion were already discussed in parliament while the protests were still ongoing.
44 Figure 13. The three demands in the debates
April protests XR
Although net zero emissions by 2025 was deemed unfeasible, 5 days after the protests a bill was introduced to commit the U.K. to legally binding targets of net zero emissions by 2050. During the introduction of the bill MP Chalk stated: “Although this Bill was conceived before the Extinction Rebellion protests, those demonstrations were a timely reminder of the growing democratic drumbeat across the generations for the new radicalism about which I have spoken.[..]” (Chalk, 2019, p. 150). The bill was accepted less than two months later, indicating that policy entrepreneurs were ready and waiting with the bill and used the momentum of the protests to propel forward. Although it is 25 years later then Extinction Rebellion desired, it is the first major economy to pass laws to end emission contributions (Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy, 2019). The demand for a citizens’ assembly received as much attention as the demand for a climate emergency declaration in the Extinction Rebellion debate. However, unlike the emergency declaration demand, attention was short lived. In the following debates the issue earned little attention. Yet, six months after these debates 30,000 invitations were sent out to constituents to take part in a citizens’ assembly on how to achieve net zero by 2050 (U.K. Parliament, 2019).
Climate as a crisis
Climate seems to be conceptualised increasingly as a crisis. Crisis language was invoked during the UNCCC debate and it entered the parliamentary conversation more extensively since the April protests (see figure 15). Combative language was already present in the climate debates
45 before the protest. Unfortunately, the result of the analysis is skewed. Debate 4 is a very short oral answers section. So, although ‘threat’ is only mentioned once in this Q & A session, it resulted in a high mention ratio. Disregarding that result, we see a decrease in combative language. Perhaps this can be explained to the rise in crisis language that can be observed in debate 5. Possibly more outspoken language became desirable as protesters were demanding language.
Figure 14. Climate conceptualised as a crisis
April protests XR
Minister Perry was sceptical of a climate emergency declaration, but 8 days later it was declared. On May 1st, 2019, the U.K. became the first country in the world to declare a climate emergency. Although it is not a legally binding motion, it officially registers the view of the House (BBC News, 2019c). The demand for a climate and ecological emergency declaration seems to be firmly set on the agenda by the Extinction Rebellion protests. Although climate emergencies were not a new phenomenon in British politics, the first time it is mentioned on the national level is during the April protests. During the proceedings, several MPs also attributed the climate emergency declaration to Extinction Rebellion. Dr. David Drew stated: “My main point is that we are here today because of Extinction Rebellion. People came to London [..] and they danced, sang, made speeches, got arrested, disrupted and stuck themselves to things, including my party leader’s fence. It is important to understand that the protests were about bringing home to us what we should be doing—and what we are doing
46 today—which is declaring a state of emergency, so that we genuinely do something about climate change.” (Drew, 2019, pp. 299-300). Extinction Rebellion was also applauded for getting climate change in general (back) on the agenda. Matt Western said “That is why the climate change strikers by young people and the Extinction Rebellion action has been so important: they have brought us all together to discuss this important topic.” (Western, 2019, p. 249). Caroline Lucas rebuffed criticism of the protests and also acknowledged their agenda-setting powers: “When people look back at this moment, it will not be those blockading bridges or going on strike from school that history will judge severely. It will be those who shut their eyes and blocked their ears to the scale of the challenge. I pay tribute to the work of Extinction Rebellion and the youth climate strikes, because they have already made a difference. The sheer number of people in the Chamber today is testament to that.” (Lucas, 2019b, p. 290) Helen Hayes also paid tribute to Greta Thunberg and the school strikers and “[..]to the protesters whom we saw outside Parliament last week for ensuring the climate change is once again at the top of the political agenda, where it must be. Under this Government and in this global context, their actions are necessary.” (Hayes, 2019, p.311).
Conservative / Labour comparison
Most statements that attest to Extinction Rebellion’s agenda-setting power are from Labour and Green politicians. Polls also showed that issue salience is higher in Labour voters and indicated that Conservative voters were not affected by the April protests. To get a clear understanding of Extinction Rebellion’s agenda-setting impact, the data is broken down by political affiliation.
Figure 15. Combative and crisis language per political party
47 Combative language is used almost equally by Conservatives and Labour. However, of the total amount of crisis synonyms in the debates 51.7% are spoken by Labour and only 21% by Conservatives. Similarly, Extinction Rebellion and the protests were mentioned more often by Labour. Labour was also decidedly more vocal about declaring a climate emergency, which sees the largest difference between left and right. Labour uttered the words 46 times, the Labour and Cooperative Party 15 times and the Conservative Party only 9 times.
Figure 16. Extinction Rebellion and protest mentioned per political party
These results might indicate why the climate emergency declaration was tabled on Opposition Day. Most days the government sets the agenda, but on Opposition Day smaller parties set the agenda for that day (Opposition Days, n.d.). Jeremy Corbyn of the Labour Party tabled the motion, and that Labour choose to use this day to address climate change and, more specifically a climate emergency declaration, attests to the pressure Extinction Rebellion exerted on the political system. Or at least on the Labour Party, whose voters have higher issue salience concerning climate.
Figure 17. Emergency declaration mentioned per political party
48
4.7 Conclusion
At the time the ecological and climate emergency was declared, Brexit occupied most of the political debate and pressures on Theresa May to leave office were high. It is remarkable that an issue such as climate change saw an increase in media and political attention at such a time. Climate activism contributed to this agenda-setting. Although the School Strike for Climate also increased media attention, the April protests that functioned as a true focusing event. The number of protesters and the disruptive nature of the protests seems to have contributed to media coverage. In April, a clear spike in articles mentioning Extinction Rebellion is evident. During and after these protest events, issue salience in citizens increased. The environment rose quickly to the top 3 of most important issue facing Britain according to U.K. adults. Public concern about climate change had not been this high since July 1990. Extinction Rebellion, their demands and climate change received a place on the political agenda. The frequency increase of debates on climate change, the short time span and political statements all indicate that Extinction Rebellion contributed to agenda-setting. Although the qualitative analysis does not show Extinction Rebellion is not mentioned to a significant extent, their ideas and the protests itself are. Crisis language is used more frequently, referring to climate change as a ‘disaster’, ‘catastrophe’ and ‘emergency’. More significantly, two out of the three demands put forth by Extinction Rebellion have been met, while the third demand has been partially met. Even though the climate emergency declaration was not a new phenomenon in British politics, the first time it is mentioned in the national arena is during the April protests. Within 9 days the U.K. became the first country to declare a climate and ecological emergency. They also opened a window of opportunity to introduce a bill to adopt targets for zero net by 2050. The bill was introduced only 5 days after the April protest ended, that in all likelihood policy entrepreneurs has it at the ready. The bill was accepted less than two months later. Although this is 25 years later then Extinction Rebellion would like to have seen, it is the first major economy to pass laws to end emission contributions (Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy, 2019). In November of that same year, 30,000 invitations were sent out to constituents to take part in a citizens’ assembly on how to achieve net zero by 2050 (U.K. Parliament, 2019).
49 5. Framing
The chapter searches beyond agenda-setting and delves into issue framing. First, it analyses how Extinction Rebellion has framed its message. Benford & Snow’s framework of diagnostic, prognostic and motivational framing is applied to determine which messages are characteristic to the movement. Those messages are then labelled according to Nisbet’s typology for science- related issues. Through a content analysis, the ten parliamentary debates were also coded according to this typology. Accordingly, the final section examines if a relationship between Extinction Rebellion frames and the frames in the parliamentary debates can be observed. The conclusion of this chapter summarises and highlights the main findings.
5.1. Extinction Rebellion message framing
Diagnostic framing
The diagnostic frame identifies the problem and then attributes the problem to something or someone by focusing blame and/or responsibility (Benford & Snow, 2000, p. 616). This is often achieved by dichotomous framing, called “boundary” or “adversarial” framing (Benford & Snow, 2000, p. 616). Constructing an ‘us vs. them’-narrative creates movement protagonists and antagonists. Extinction Rebellion identifies climate change, or more specifically the “unprecedented global emergency” as the problem (Extinction Rebellion U.K., n.d.-e). They “rebel” in an attempt to stop the “sixth mass extinction” and “social collapse” (Extinction Rebellion U.K., n.d.-a). Their logo, an hourglass, signifies that “time is running out” (Webster, 2019) In an interview Extinction Rebellion’s media coordinator specifically mentions the centrality of emergency messaging to their strategy (Barclay, 2019). They identify the “toxic system” we live in as the cause of the problem. Although they make a point to state they “avoid blaming and shaming”, they admit they seek to “highlight the damaging role an institution has played” (Extinction Rebellion U.K., n.d.-a). The “toxic system” is made up out of “a debt- and interest-based, deregulated finance sector”, “a fake and decaying democracy” and “a media captured to the interests of exploitative rich people and corporations” (Extinction Rebellion U.K., n.d.-a). Their ‘tell the truth’ demand is therefore also directed at the government and the media, implying they are currently lying – or at least omitting the truth (Extinction Rebellion U.K., 2019). Although they have initiated protests at
50 media centers such as BBC headquarters, their main focus seems to lay on governmental inaction. Most protests occurred in and around governmental buildings (Extinction Rebellion U.K., 2019), their explanation of the emergency extensively discusses how the U.K. government “is failing” (Extinction Rebellion, n.d.-e). all three demands are directed at the government and calls to action often feature variants on “ [..] Please join our international open non-violent rebellion against government inaction on and complicity in the #SixthMassExtinction.” (Extinction Rebellion [@ExtinctionR], 2019). Or, a more strongly worded variant: “[..]we are less 'sleepwalking towards the edge of a cliff' & more being shoved off the edge by the criminal U.K. gov't & the extractive industries who they represent.” (Extinction Rebellion [@ExtinctionR], 2018). So, Extinction Rebellion diagnosis of the issue is congruent with Nisbet’s pandora’s box. It emphasises the dire and overwhelming consequences that inaction would have. Their attribution of blame is mostly focussed the U.K. government and to a lesser extent on British media, which fits in the public accountability and governance frame.
Prognostic framing
The prognostic frame puts forward a solution, or a plan of attack and the strategy for achieving the end goal (Benford & Snow, 2000, p. 616). Here, Extinction Rebellion has been very specific. By creating three key demands, their messaging is very clear on what their solution is; The government and media need to tell the truth about climate change, declare a climate emergency to ensure the gravity of the situation is present in legislation and public debate, strict policy on carbon emissions needs to be established and a citizens’ assembly needs to advise and review governmental policy (Extinction Rebellion, n.d.-d). Subsequently, these demands have been clearly visible in almost every event. Bright flags, boats, banners and news articles clearly communicated these demands (BBC News, 2019a). During the April protests, four out of five protest sites were named after the demands, which ensured all participants were repeatedly communicating with these demands (Extinction Rebellion, 2019) The demands themselves also propose clear policies to the government, namely declaring a climate emergency, legislate for net zero emissions by 2025 and convene a citizens’ assembly. Their strategy for achieving political attention are also clearly communicated. Their website presents all available events, how to get into contact with local groups, and different ways in which you can help (Extinction Rebellion U.K.. n.d.-b). The civil disobedience
51 approach has been clearly outlined, and specific strategies on e.g. how to block a road are clearly explained in their book and on their YouTube channel (Hallam, 2019, pp. 99-105; (Extinction Rebellion, 2018, 03:15–05:21) The prognostic framing is highly focussed on governmental and public action, which correspond with the public accountability and governance frame.
Motivational framing
The motivational frame encourages people to engage in collective action (Benford & Snow, 2000, p. 617). The frame focusses on the “agency” issue of social movements (Gamson, 1995, p. 90). It provides supporters with compelling reasons to join the movement or continue their participation (Benford & Snow, 2000, p. 617; Howe & Wilkes, 2019, p. 250). So essentially, it provides motive for participation. Extinction Rebellion relies heavily on communicating the consequences of climate change to motivate people. Fatalist messaging on “tipping points” try to motivate us to “act while we still can” to “halt mass extinction” (Extinction Rebellion, n.d.-e). Under their “act now” heading on their webpage, audiences are first reminded of the far-reaching consequences of climate change. This framing is consistent with Nisbet’s pandoras box frame. Ending with “the time for denial is over, it is time to act” they also invoke the scientific uncertainty frame to motivate its audience. The frame is also featured throughout their explanation of ‘the emergency’, with extensive information on the scientific data on the of climate change. They translate the ramifications of climate change to (future) problems for everyday life, ranging from food insecurity to death (Extinction Rebellion, n.d.-e). So, they use the scientific uncertainty frame to reinforce pandora’s box. They also employ the morality and ethics and social progress frame. References to “[..] a duty to disobey this system which destroys life on earth and is deeply unjust.” (Extinction Rebellion, n.d.-a). and “[..] the duty of keeping it safe for those to come. The generations of yesterday trust those of today not to take more than their share, and those of tomorrow trust their elders to care for it.” (Extinction Rebellion, n.d.-a) show a narrative that hold the audience responsible for caring for those who can not fend for themselves, such as animals and children. So, their motivational frame touches upon three of Nisbets frames: scientific uncertainty, pandora’s box and morality and ethics. In trying to convince its audience of the
52 authenticity of the situation they employ the ‘science is clear’ frame, which falls within the scientific uncertainty frame. Once audience is sufficiently convinced of the scientific certainty, pandora’s box is used to instil the urgency of the situation. The morality and ethics frame is then triggered by references to ‘injustice’ and the ‘duty to act’ (Extinction Rebellion, n.d.-e).
In their efforts to communicate the problem, propose a solution and motivate people to join their cause, Extinction Rebellion frames climate change as an emergency that causes irreparable damage to the planet and everyone and everything living on it. They attribute blame to the government, propose policy solutions and present a plan of attack to protesters and connect the consequences of climate change to everyday life to motivate people into action. In doing so, they invoke five frames: pandora’s box, public accountability and governance, scientific and technical uncertainty, social progress and morality and ethics. Of those five, public accountability and governance are used in both diagnostic, prognostic framing, and pandora’s box is used in throughout three.
5.2. Results
Figure 18. Frame composition of the debates (excl. 'other')
April protests XR
53
The two frames Extinction Rebellion uses considerably are public accountability and governance and pandora’s box. Since parliamentary debates primarily exist to determine which policy options are in the public interest, it is unsurprising that public accountability and governance is dominant in six of the ten debates. The frame was also dominant in two out of four debates before the protests. However, during and right after the protests the frame is used more frequently than before, but only for a relatively short period of time. During the debate on the declaration of a climate emergency, the frame becomes dominant again. Pandora’s box is heavily used in Extinction Rebellion material, but the frame does not seem to be adopted much in the debates since the April protests. If anything, it is used less. The frame was more prominently evident in the debates before the protests, specifically on extreme weather events and the UNCCC. The morality and social progress frames used by Extinction Rebellion see a slight increase in adoption. The morality frame is most consistent, with a slightly increasing trend. The frame is present in every debate since the protests. It covers around 7% of the debates on climate change policy (debate 6), discussions with DEPRA (debate 7) and the debate on net zero ambitions (debate 8). The frame is used most often in the oral answers on climate change (debate 9) and decreases to 9% in the debate on environment and climate change (debate 10). The social progress is adopted inconsistently, but on average the frame is used around 2,6% in the first four debates, and 7,3% in debates following the protests. The scientific and technical uncertainty frame sees decrease in adoption. In the first two debates on the Paris Climate Agreement and on the extreme weather events that occurred in the U.K., politicians invoked the scientific uncertainty frame frequently. Since then, it has not been used often. The debate on net zero emissions saw a rise in use of the frame, but otherwise adoption remained low. Use of the economic development frame decreased considerably since the first debate. However, the debate on climate action and Extinction Rebellion (debate 5) seems to have reinvigorated the frame. Extinction Rebellion makes little use of the frame, so it is unlikely any Extinction Rebellion action can explain the increase. Debate 4 consisted mostly of the geopolitical strategy frame, which can be explained by the subject; oral answers on international cooperation. Similarly, the debate on the UN Climate Conference (debate 3) and the oral answer on climate change (debate 9) concerned the governmental approach to developing countries also featured the frame more frequently.
54 These results seem to indicate that Extinction Rebellion did not have a significant impact on the frame composition of the parliamentary debates. The slight upward trend in the use of the governance and the morality and ethics frames might indicate that Extinctions’ blame attribution and motivational messaging were effective in activating these frames under politicians. The economic frame was also invoked more frequently since the protests, which could indicate that the frame was employed to reframe climate change by opposing parties. Extinction Rebellion uses the scientific uncertainty frame, but the transference to parliamentary debates is minimal. It could be a conscious decision by politicians, as there is some experimental evidence that uncertainty frames confuse audiences and reduce engagement (Stecula & Merkey, 2019, p. 10). As previously mentioned, frames are activated regardless of the sentiment of the argument. So, stating that the ‘science is clear’, might actually reinforce scientific doubt in the mind of the audience. Not engaging in the frame, then, becomes more effective. An alternative explanation could be that the protests ensured that politicians felt a general acceptance of climate change and did not feel there was a need to discuss the scientific implications, or even that it was unpopular to do so. However, this is all speculation and further research into why politicians select specific frames is necessary.
Figure 19. Frame composition of the debates (excl. ‘other’)
April protests XR
55
Conservative/Labour comparison
Three out of the five frames that Extinction Rebellion emphasises are more frequently used by Labour politicians than Conservatives. Public accountability and governance, but especially morality and ethics and pandora’s box are used considerably less by Conservatives. They put more emphasis on the economic frame and invoke the scientific uncertainty frame more frequently than Labour. They communicate geopolitical strategy equally, and Labour communicates the social progress frame slightly more often. Again, considering the issue salience among U.K. citizens, the difference in frames corresponds with the higher issue salience in Labour voters. People interpret the world according to the knowledge they already possess. As issue salience of climate change was already higher in Labour voters, it is likely that they were more perceptive to the frames Extinction Rebellion presented.
Figure 20. Distribution of frame use over political party
56
5.3. Conclusion
Evidence that Extinction Rebellion influenced the frame composition in the parliamentary debates is very slim. If there was any influence, Labour politicians were influenced more than Conservatives. Extinction Rebellion relied on the public accountability and governance frame, pandora’s box, scientific uncertainty, social progress and morality and ethics to communicate the issue of climate change, propose policy solutions, present a plan of attack and motivate people into action. Since parliamentary debates primarily exist to determine which policy options are in the public interest, it is unsurprising that public accountability and governance is frequently dominant in the debates. However, the slight upward trend in the use of this frame might indicate that Extinctions’ blame attribution was effective in activating the frame under politicians. However, the effects seem to be short-term. The morality and ethics frame increased most consistently, although only slightly. The social progress frame increased inconsistently, and the scientific uncertainty frame decreases only to during the protests. Extinction Rebellion relies heavily on pandora’s box, but the frame was not used frequently in parliamentary debates. This could be a conscious decision by politicians, as there is some evidence that uncertainty frames confuse audiences and actually reduce engagement. The economic competitiveness frame actually increases with the protests, which seems of further evidence that the protests did not influence debate. This frame was not extensively communicated during the debates.
57 6. Discussion
The thesis aimed to answer find out if Extinction Rebellion influenced agenda-setting and framing in parliamentary debates. The analysis indicates that Extinction Rebellion influenced agenda-setting by creating a focusing event that generated enough media attention to increase issue salience. These two most likely resulted in the agenda-setting of Extinction Rebellion and their demands, albeit to a varying degree. However, alternative explanations need to be investigated further to uncover if other factors enabled Extinction Rebellion to influence agenda-setting. The theoretical framework of the thesis limits itself to Kingdon’s problem stream due to scope and analyses how Extinction Rebellion influenced this specific stream. However, it is only one out of three streams that can create policy opportunities. Change does not exist in a vacuum, and the policy and political stream also require examination. Social movements also do not exist in a vacuum. The thesis differentiates between the influence of the School Strike for Climate movement and Extinction Rebellion on the theoretical basis that media attention to the underlying issue results in agenda-setting (Vliegenthart et al., 2016). In this sense, Extinction Rebellion was more effective in generating media attention. However, evidence suggests that political action only occurs when there is pressure from multiple social actors (Gunningham, 2019). The thesis gives insight into the effectiveness of Extinction Rebellion, but further research is needed to analyse the role of other social actors in the declaration of a climate emergency. For example, David Attenborough’s documentaries have already proven to cause a 53% reduction of single-use plastics in a single year (Globalwebindex, 2019). The ‘Attenborough effect’ or similar factors might have also impacted the agenda-setting of climate change. Unfortunately, the case selection proved a limitation during the analysis for two reasons. First, the ‘oral answers’ skewed the data for the framing analysis. Four of the ten debates were ‘oral answers’; a section in the debates where an MP can pose a question to a minister, thusly holding the government accountable. The question sets up the frame for the answers, and because the oral answers are relatively short, it does not allow much room for the introduction of other frames. It resulted in a specific frame monopolising the debate, that might otherwise not have dominated. Although the asked question gives insight into what a particular politician deems an important aspect of climate change, it does not give an adequate reflection of a change in frame compositions in larger debates. This shortcoming might have been mitigated if it were not for the second limitation of the case selection: the sample size was too small. Too few debates were selected to indicate a trend properly. Ten debates simply do not
58 generate enough data points to come to a conclusive result on framing patterns. Trends emerge over time, and the larger the timeframe, the more visible trends become. With four out of ten debates oral answers and four of the remaining debates occurring within a week of each other, framing trends are not possible to uncover. The baseline of two full debates on climate change is also not a sufficient baseline to determine how climate change was framed before Extinction Rebellion. The analysis would require data far before the 1st of January 2018 and far beyond to the 1st of May 2019 to indicate if Extinction Rebellion made an impact on how climate change is framed in parliamentary debates. To increase generalisability and practical relevance, further research should also include cross-case comparisons of at least two distinct social movements that instigated focusing events within the same political system. It would lead to a better understanding of what pressures aid agenda-setting in a specific political system and eliminates the issue-specific results. Alternatively, two similar social movements in at least two distinct countries could reveal what kind of messaging or focusing event is effective in inspiring political action regardless of political system.
59 7. Conclusion
Climate change is a unique policy problem. Over the last few decades, scientific evidence has become indisputable and so have other problem indicators such as wildfires, heatwaves and other extreme weather events. And yet, policy was slow to follow. To instigate policy change, Extinction Rebellion took to the streets of London in April 2019. The presented analysis suggests that Extinction Rebellion’s April protests functioned as a focusing event and influenced agenda-setting in the House of Commons. The event generated enough media attention to it increase issue salience among citizens. Articles mentioning ‘Extinction Rebellion’, the three demands, ‘climate protests’, ‘climate emergency’, and ‘climate change’ went significantly up during the protest. Although all decreased soon after, all except ‘citizens’ assembly’ stabilised above their starting points, indicating that even after the initial boom the issue remained somewhat salient. The climate emergency received significantly more media coverage compared to the citizens’ assembly and net zero 2025 demand. An increase in articles on climate change without also mentioning either Extinction Rebellion or protests indicates that the protests not only generated attention for the protests, but also for the underlying issue. These findings are in line with data uncovered by Vliegenthart et al. (2016). Issue salience of climate change after the protests increased across genders, ages and professions, except for Conservative voters which stayed the same. As a result of the increased media attention and issue salience, Extinction Rebellion’s April protests was discussed in parliament even before the protests had finished. Agenda- setting of climate change was attributed to Extinction Rebellion by several Labour and Green politicians. Left politicians were also the ones to push for a climate emergency declaration. They conceptualised climate significantly more as a crisis and referred more frequently to the protests and Extinction Rebellion, which seems in line with the increased issue salience among Labour voters. Although climate emergency declarations were not completely new in U.K. politics, Extinction Rebellion effectively put it on the national agenda. Before the April protests, such a declaration was not mentioned in parliamentary debates. Mere weeks after the protests, the declaration was official. The analysis also indicates that politicians were ready with legislation on net zero emissions and made strategic use of the opening of the policy window to introduce it, which is in line with Kingdon’s theory on policy entrepreneurs. It seems that although agenda-setting and framing are intertwined concepts, success in agenda-setting does not necessarily mean frame transference. How Extinction Rebellion
60 framed climate change seems to have been effective in increasing issue salience and motivating citizens to go out and protest. However, its effect on framing of climate change in parliamentary debates was minimal. They relied mostly on the scientific uncertainty, pandora’s box, public accountability and governance, morality and ethics and social progress frames. The public accountability and governance frame increased during and after the protests, but only shortly. Although a slight consistent increase in the morality and ethics frame can be observed, the economic development and competitiveness frame seems to be used more frequently as well. Extinction Rebellion uses the former, the latter only minimally. In general, the composition of the frames seems highly dependent on the subject of the debate, and the debate selection did not lend itself particularly well for this analysis. There were not sufficient data points to indicate any trends and some of the data points skewed the results. The ‘Oral Answers’-debates were very short and specific, which caused the politician to ask the question to largely dictate the frame for the answer. Although the frame of the question also indicates what is considered important enough to dedicate a question to, it is not a satisfactory data point to compare to other debates. They differ too much. A larger data sample is recommended, with considerably more debates spanning several years.
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77 2000. Mobilization: 17(2), 129–156. https://doi.org/10.17813/maiq.17.2.pw053m281356572h Waterson, J. (2018, December 21). BBC’s London HQ put on lockdown over climate change protest. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/dec/21/bbc-london- headquarters-put-on-lockdown-over-protest-by-climate-change-campaigners- extinction-rebellion Webster, C. (2019, April 9). The origins and rise of the Extinction symbol. EcoHustler. https://ecohustler.com/culture/the-origins-and-rise-of-the-extinction-symbol/ Wells, M. (2017, July 15). World writes to undecided voters. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/oct/16/uselections2004.usa2 Western, M. (2019, May 1). “Environment and Climate Change.” United Kingdom. Parliament. House of Commons. https://hansard.parliament.U.K./Commons/2019-05- 01 Wilson, S.(2019, April 23). “Climate Action and Extinction Rebellion.” United Kingdom. Parliament. House of Common. Hansard. 658(289). https://hansard.parliament.U.K./commons/2019-04-23 Whitmarsh, L. (2011). Scepticism and uncertainty about climate change: Dimensions, determinants and change over time. Global Environmental Change, 21(2), 690–700. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.01.016 Wlezien, C. (2005). On the salience of political issues: The problem with ‘most important problem.’ Electoral Studies, 24(4), 555–579. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2005.01.009 Wolfe, M., Jones, B. D., & Baumgartner, F. R. (2013). A Failure to Communicate: Agenda- setting in Media and Policy Studies. Political Communication, 30(2), 175–192. https://doi.org/10.1080/10584609.2012.737419 YouGov. (2016–2019, July 6–May 29). Top Issues Tracker (GB) [Dataset]. YouGov. https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/860hexugwi/YG% 20Trackers%20-%20Top%20Issues_W.pdf YouGov. (2019–2020, June 24–September 22). The most important issues facing the country (Sep 22, 2020) [Dataset]. YouGov. https://yougov.co.U.K./topics/politics/trackers/the-most-important-issues-facing-the- country
78
Appendix 1: Codebook agenda-setting
Figure 21. Codebook agenda-setting (full)
Code Words Notes Crisis synonyms • emergency • Emergency is filtered for anything not • crisis directly referring to climate change as a • disaster crisis, e.g. “declaring emergency” and • catastrophe “emergency responders” • Disaster is filtered for any ref. to “other” disasters, e.g. natural disasters Combative language • threat • Conflict, threat and survive are all • fight filtered for anything not referring to • combat climate change, e.g. “conflict zones”, • survival, survive “brexit threatens to” and “to survive the • war policy cycle” • conflict Declaration of a • declar • One of the Extinction Rebellion climate emergency demands • Filtered for any other sentences that did not refer to declaring climate change emergency Protests (general) • protest • Filtered for “protestations” • demonstration • demonstrators • strike, striking, strikers • activists, activism
Extinction Rebellion • Extinction Rebellion • Filtered for titles and headers in the transcripts Citizens’ assembly • assembly • One of the Extinction Rebellion demands
79 • Filtered for references to other assemblies, e.g. Welsh Assembly Greta Thunberg • Greta • Thunberg Schoolchildren • schoolchildren • Filtered for double coding • school • children
80 Appendix 2: Codebook framing
Figure 22. Codebook framing (full)
Code Unit Definition Indicators 1 Pandora’s box A need for precaution or action in References to: face of possible catastrophe and - Large, systemic out-of-control consequences consequences - Extinction - Deaths - Uninhabitable earth 2 Scientific uncertainty A matter of expert understanding or References to: consensus; a debate over what is - Discussion of the known versus unknown; or peer- scientific debate reviewed, confirmed knowledge - Scientific consensus versus hype or alarmism.
3 Economic An economic investment; market References to: development and benefit or risk; or a point of local, - Jobs competitiveness national, or global competitiveness - Economy - Investments - Prices 4 Public accountability Research or policy; either in the References to: and governance public interest or serving special - Net zero emissions interests, emphasizing issues of - Carbon targets control transparency, participation, - Building regulations responsiveness, or ownership; or - Law debate over proper use of science - Citizen participation and expertise in decision making. - Citizen assembly
5 Social progress A means of improving quality of References to: life or solving problems; alternative - Improving poverty in interpretation as a way to be in the U.K.
81 harmony with nature instead of - Protecting or mastering it. reinvigorating nature - Bettering lives - Public health 6 Morality and ethics A matter of right and wrong; or of - Responsibility to act respect or disrespect for limits, - Ethical duty, moral thresholds, or boundaries. authority/obligation - Justice - Damage done to others - Humanitarian aid - Colonialism, third world countries - Displacement outside U.K., refugee camps 7 Geopolitical strategy A matter of international security References to; or cooperation; a strategy for - Geopolitical security helping, inspiring or coercing other - Protection against other nations to improve sustainability nations - International cooperation. Working with other nations to stop climate change - COP 26 bid - Impact of Brexit - Diplomacy 8 Other - Units that do not fit in any other category, e.g. procedural remarks
Sources: In Nisbet, 2009, p. 18 (Gamson & Modigliani 1989; Dahinden 2002; Durant, Bauer & Gaskell 1998; Nisbet & Lewenstein 2002)
82 Appendix 3: Headlines The Times, The Daily Mail & The Guardian
15/04/2019 – 26/04/2019
Figure 23. Subject of the headlines that day
Date The Daily Mail The Times The Guardian 15 April Prince George Social media code of Tiger Woods 2019 - conduct - Jihadi bride1 - Housing policies Tiger Woods - - Assange abuse3 Assange abuse - Brexit2 16 April Notre Dame fire4 Notre- Dame fire Notre-Dame 2019 - - Small mentioning: Microplastic 6 protesters’ blockade London5 (ref to p. 10- 11) 17 April Norte Dame fire Notre Dame fire Notre Dame fire 2019 - - - Women’s employment Pregnancy scan Mastercard9 numbers7 - Small mentioning: protest in Tube8 (ref to p. 14) 18 April Waving the White Flag10 Peru’s ex-president 1% owns half of 2019 suicide England - - Protesters glue Brain research12 themselves to Corbyn’s house - Brexit - Archaeological find11
1 (Miller, 2019) 2 (The Times Pictures [TimesPictures], 2019) 3 (The Guardian [@guardian], 2019) 4 (The Daily Mail [@DailyMailU.K.], 2019) 5 (The Times Pictures [@TimesPictures], 2019a) 6 (The Guardian [@guardian], 2019a) 7 (Daily Mail U.K. [@DailyMailU.K.], 2019a) 8 The Times Pictures [@TimesPictures], 2019b) 9 (The Guardian [@guardian], 2019b) 10 (Henderson, 2019) 11 (The Times Pictures [@TimesPictures], 2019c) 12 (Guardian news [@Guardiannews], 2019)
83 19 April Eco plot to ruin easter, Use the full force of Trump/Mueller 2019 Dame Emma law on protest, police investigation [Thompson] jets a gas told - guzzling 5,400 miles to - Climate protests join demo!13 Trump/Mueller target Heathrow investigation next15 - Airline sexist dress code14 20 April Easter spending CIA warning over McKee murder in 2019 - Huawei Ireland McKee murder16 - - McKee killing17 Thunberg to protest with Extinction Rebellion18 21 April Farage/May19 Harry & Meghan to Fragage/May/Brexit 2019 Africa - (Sunday) - McKee murder21 Google - Passwords - Theresa May to be ousted20 22 April Sri Lanka Bombing22 Sri Lanka bombing Sri Lanka Bombing 2019 - 24 Teenagers and junk food23 23 April Royal birthday Sri Lanka bombing Sri Lanka bombing 2019 - - 27 CTV in stores Small mention XR - protest at Museum (ref Sri Lanka bombing25 to p. 13)26 24 April Police screens out crimes Teenager inspires Greta Thunberg 2019 - Britain to act on speech in XR climate change protests
13 (Hodgkins-Brown, 2019b) 14 (The Times Pictures [@TimesPictures], 2019d) 15 (The Guardian [@guardian], 2019c) 16 (Miller, 2019a) 17 (The Times Pictures [@TimesPictures], 2019e) 18 (The Guardian [@guardian], 2019d) 19 (Henderson, 2019a) 20 (Henderson, 2019b) 21 (The Guardian [@guardian], 2019e) 22 (Paperboy Online News, 2019) 23 (The Times Pictures [@TimesPictures], 2019f) 24 (The Guardian [@guardian], 2019f) 25 (The Daily Mail [@DailyMailU.K.], 2019b) 26 (The Times Pictures [@TimesPictures], 2019g) 27 (The Guardian [@guardian], 2019g)
84 Presidential visit (meeting Carline Lucas - Trump28 & Jeremy Corbyn in Isis bombing Sri Westminster – Theresa Lanka30 May absent) - Isis bombing Sri Lanka29 25 April Burgling Greta Thunberg Risk measles after 2019 - - missing vaccinations Children and electronic Security leak ministers - screens31 - Brainwave decoder Sri Lanka bombing - - Plea to politicians at Mo Farah blackmail32 McKee funeral (NewIRA murder)33 26 April Mo Farah attack34 Private schools – tax Huawei 2019 saving - - Veterans of Troubles Security leak face inquiry - - Sleep and problem Petition against solving35 school testing under age 436
28 (The Daily Mail [@DailyMailU.K.], 2019c) 29 (The Times Pictures [@TimesPictures], 2019h) 30 (The Guardian [@guardian], 2019h) 31 (The Daily Mail [@DailyMailU.K.], 2019d) 32 (The Times Pictures [@TimesPictures], 2019i) 33 (The Guardian [@guardian], 2019i) 34 (The Daily Mail [@DailyMailU.K.], 2019e) 35 (The Times Pictures [@TimesPictures], 2019j) 36 (The Guardian [@guardian], 2019k)
85 Appendix 4; Results content analysis agenda-setting
Figure 24. Frequency word(s) appeared in parliamentary debate
Debate Word Crisis Citizens' Truth Greta Protest Combative Declar Extincti School count assembly Thunberg language e on children emerg Rebelli ency on 1 464 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 13201 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 12 3 9512 11 0 2 2 1 5 0 0 1 4 402 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 5 14528 22 6 7 14 45 2 6 8 17 6 11844 10 0 4 4 11 2 8 0 3 7 2043 2 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 8 2805 0 0 1 0 2 1 0 0 1 9 2805 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 10 51784 97 5 5 13 41 50 59 12 61
Figure 25. Weighted results (frequency/word count)
Debate Word W: W: W: Greta count Crisis Citizen Thunberg s' W: W: Assem W: W: W: Comb. W: Declare Extinction School bly Truth Protests language emergency Rebellion children 1 464 0.0000 0.0000 0.0022 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 2 13201 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0003 0.0000 0.0000 0.0009 3 9512 0.0012 0.0000 0.0002 0.0002 0.0001 0.0005 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 4 402 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0025 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 5 14528 0.0015 0.0004 0.0005 0.0010 0.0031 0.0001 0.0004 0.0006 0.0012 6 11844 0.0008 0.0000 0.0003 0.0003 0.0009 0.0002 0.0007 0.0000 0.0003 7 2043 0.0010 0.0000 0.0005 0.0005 0.0000 0.0005 0.0005 0.0000 0.0000 8 2805 0.0000 0.0000 0.0004 0.0000 0.0007 0.0004 0.0000 0.0000 0.0004 9 2805 0.0004 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0007 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 10 51784 0.0019 0.0001 0.0001 0.0003 0.0008 0.0010 0.0011 0.0002 0.0012
86 Figure 26. Use of words over time
Figure 27. Words divided by party
Party Declare Crisis Combative Extinction Citizens' Truth Schoolchildren Protest Greta Extinct emergency language Rebellion assembly Thunberg Change U.K. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 U.K. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Independence Party Plaid Cymru 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 Liberal 0 4 1 0 0 1 1 3 0 0 Democrats Green Party 1 9 2 1 0 0 1 4 2 0 Scottish 0 5 5 2 0 0 7 10 2 0 National Party Labour 46 74 25 11 1 15 51 43 19 4 Democratic 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 2 1 0 Unionist Party Conservative 9 30 23 4 1 3 22 28 4 2 Labour and 15 19 9 2 9 0 1 8 2 0 Co-operative Party Total 71 143 65 20 11 19 94 100 31 6
87 Appendix 5; Results content analysis framing
Figure 28. Frequency use of frames per debate
Debate Coded Morality Geopolitical Pandora's Science Public Economic Social Other Segments and strategy box (+) accountability progress ethics and governance 1 7 0 0 0 2 1 3 0 1 2 126 3 14 22 17 35 11 10 14 3 116 13 22 7 2 39 8 3 22 4 8 0 5 0 0 1 0 0 2 5 151 5 10 5 4 64 34 5 24 6 121 8 13 2 5 51 30 3 9 7 14 1 1 0 0 6 2 1 3 8 29 2 2 2 3 4 10 0 6 9 20 4 7 0 0 2 1 6 0 10 584 53 43 38 11 234 63 52 90
Figure 29. Weighted results (frame/total)
Debate Total Weighted: Weighted: Weighted: Weighted: Weighted: Weighted: Weighted: Weighted: Morality Geo Pandora science Public Economic Social Other 1 7 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.286 0.143 0.429 0.000 0.143 2 126 0.024 0.111 0.175 0.135 0.278 0.087 0.079 0.111 3 116 0.112 0.190 0.060 0.017 0.336 0.069 0.026 0.190 4 8 0.000 0.625 0.000 0.000 0.125 0.000 0.000 0.250 5 151 0.033 0.066 0.033 0.026 0.424 0.225 0.033 0.159 6 121 0.066 0.107 0.017 0.041 0.421 0.248 0.025 0.074 7 14 0.071 0.071 0.000 0.000 0.429 0.143 0.071 0.214 8 29 0.069 0.069 0.069 0.103 0.138 0.345 0.000 0.207 9 20 0.200 0.350 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.050 0.300 0.000 10 584 0.091 0.074 0.065 0.019 0.401 0.108 0.089 0.154
88