Presented to the Faculty of the School of Engineering and Applied Science University of Virginia
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Stepping Back from the Trees to see the Forest: Network Approaches to Valuing Intelligence A Dissertation Presented to the faculty of the School of Engineering and Applied Science University of Virginia in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy by Christopher M. Smith May 2013 APPROVAL SHEET The dissertation is submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy AUTHOR The dissertation has been read and approved by the examining committee: Prof. William T. Scherer Advisor Prof. Peter A. Beling Prof. Michael Smith Prof. Jeremy Marcel Prof. Duncan E. McGill Accepted for the School of Engineering and Applied Science: Dean, School of Engineering and Applied Science May 2013 Abstract Determining value of intelligence can be a difficult problem. One way to value intelligence is to judge a document’s worth by its location within a structure of a given corpus of documents. Network applications are a natural extension of this logic. I introduce a methodology for value of information (VOI) for networks, comparable to VOI for influence diagrams. Additionally, citation networks and Google’s PageRank algorithm are examples of valuing information based on its location within a structure. Dynamic network analysis (DNA) has been used to allow social network analysis (SNA) involving multi-nodal networks by creating inferences across networks with common nodes. I introduce the application of the DNA layered approach to information networks in an attempt to determine value of intelligence. These applications demonstrate supplemental, and objective ways of measuring intelligence. iii For my wife, daughters and son. With hard work, all things are possible. iv Notation and Acronyms ACM Association for Computing Machinery CASOS Center for Computational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems CIA Central Intelligence Agency CRS Congressional Research Service DARPA Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency DIA Defense Information Agency DNA Dynamic Network Analysis DNI Director of National Intelligence EVII Expected value of imperfect information EVPI Expected value of perfect information G2 Intelligence staff section IC Intelligence Community IED Improvised Explosive Device IEW/TA Intelligence, Electronic Warfare, and Target Acquisition INSCOM Intelligence and Security Command IR Intelligence Report ISR Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance JHU/APL Johns Hopkins University/Applied Physics Laboratory JT-COIC Joint Training Counter IED Operations Integration Center JWICS Joint Worldwide Intelligence Communications System MC Main Component MORS Military Operations Research Society NDIC National Defense Intelligence College NGIC National Ground Intelligence Center NPV Net Present Value ODNI Office of the Director of National Intelligence OPTVIEW Operational Value of Intelligence, Electronic Warfare, and Target Acquisition OR Operations Research PPBES Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution System SNA Social Network Analysis VOI Value of Information v Table of Contents Approval ....................................................................................................................................................... ii Abstract ........................................................................................................................................................ iii Notation and Acronyms ................................................................................................................................ v List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................... ix List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................... x 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Motivation ..................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Purpose and Scope ........................................................................................................................ 2 1.3 Organization of Document ............................................................................................................ 2 2 Background ........................................................................................................................................... 3 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 3 2.2 Definition of Intelligence .............................................................................................................. 5 2.3 Approaches to Valuing Information ............................................................................................. 7 2.4 Decision Focused Methods ........................................................................................................... 9 2.5 Review of current valuation of intelligence ................................................................................ 19 2.6 Problems applying existing methodologies to Intelligence......................................................... 25 2.7 Value within the Intelligence Cycle ............................................................................................ 26 2.8 Future work and Conclusion ....................................................................................................... 29 3 Value of Information Applied to Networks ........................................................................................ 30 3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 30 3.2 Background ................................................................................................................................. 31 3.3 Value of Information (VOI) Applied to Networks ..................................................................... 34 3.3.1 Deterministic Sensitivity Analysis Approach ..................................................................... 34 3.4 Notional Example ....................................................................................................................... 36 3.4.1 Data set ................................................................................................................................ 37 3.4.2 Problem ............................................................................................................................... 38 3.4.3 Notional Solution ................................................................................................................ 38 3.5 Application of methodology ....................................................................................................... 38 3.6 Results ......................................................................................................................................... 40 3.7 Conclusion / Future Work ........................................................................................................... 41 vi 3.8 Introducing intelligence Potential ............................................................................................... 42 3.8.1 A notional application of finding Potential ......................................................................... 43 3.9 Future Research .......................................................................................................................... 44 4 Layered Network Approach ................................................................................................................ 45 4.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 45 4.2 Background ................................................................................................................................. 46 4.3 DNA concepts applied to information networks in the intelligence field ................................... 48 4.4 Intelligence questions applied to information networks ............................................................. 51 4.5 Applied to data set ...................................................................................................................... 54 5 Analysis/Results .................................................................................................................................. 55 5.1 Turing award winners vs. non-winners ....................................................................................... 56 5.2 Top recurring ranked authors ...................................................................................................... 58 5.3 The visible effect of using different matrices ............................................................................. 59 5.4 Analysis of key word popularity ................................................................................................. 62 5.5 Papers to translate ....................................................................................................................... 64 5.6 Discussion and Analysis of Results ...........................................................................................