Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region November 2012
A joint project of the Commonwealth Corporation and New England Public Policy Center of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston New England Public Policy Center at COMMONWEALTH CORPORATION the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
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This profile was developed by Robert Clifford, a policy analyst at the New England Public Policy Center. TABLE OF CONTENTS
OVERVIEW SECTION ll: Measuring Labor Demand—Employment Trends of Jobs and Workers in Pioneer Valley 3 Executive Summary 21 Employment Trends 5 Geography of the Regional Labor Markets 22 Demographic Characteristics of the Population Employed 6 Pioneer Valley Region in Pioneer Valley
7 Employment Trends and Recessions 23 Distribution of Employment by Supersector (Q4 2010)
SECTION l: Measuring Labor Supply—Demographic 24 Changes in Employment During the Economic Downturn Trends of Residents Who Live in Pioneer Valley by Major Industry: Pioneer Valley
8 Population Growth Trends 25 Changes in Employment During the Economic Downturn 9 Demographic Characteristics of the Resident by Major Industry: Massachusetts Population of Pioneer Valley 26 Industries Driving the Recovery: Pioneer Valley
10 Growth in the Working-Age Population by Nativity Status 27 Industries Driving the Recovery: Massachusetts
11 Growth in the Civilian Labor Force by Nativity Status 28 Educational Attainment of Employees by Major Industry in 12 The Age Profile of the Working-Age Population Pioneer Valley (2008–2010)
13 The Age Profile of the Civilian Labor Force 29 Educational Attainment of Employees by Major Industry in Massachusetts (2008–2010) 14 Educational Attainment of the Working-Age Population 30 Employment by Major Occupation: Pioneer Valley (2008–2010) 15 Educational Attainment of the Civilian Labor Force 31 Employment by Major Occupation: Massachusetts (2008–2010) 16 Educational Attainment by Age Group, Pioneer Valley, 2008–2010 32 Distribution of Occupations Across Supersectors Outside Greater Boston (2008–2010) 17 Unemployment Rate Trends 34 Distribution of Occupations Within Supersectors Outside Greater 18 The Unemployed: Age Distribution (2000 and 2008–2010) Boston (2008–2010)
19 The Unemployed: Educational Attainment (2000 and 36 Educational Attainment of Employees by Major Occupation in 2008–2010) Pioneer Valley (2000) 20 Commuting Patterns of Residents and Workers: Pioneer Valley (2008–2010) TABLE OF CONTENTS
37 Educational Attainment of Employees by Major Occupation 48 Graduation Rates by Type of Degree (2009) in Pioneer Valley (2008–2010) 49 Crossing the Finish Line: Trends in Degree Completions Over 38 Educational Attainment of Employees by Major Occupation the Past Decade (2000–2010) in Massachusetts (2008–2010) 50 Educational Institutions Awarding the Most Degrees in Pioneer 39 Job Vacancies in the Great Recession and Recovery Valley (2010)
40 Job Vacancies and Vacancy Rates by Major Occupation 51 Number of Degree Completions by Degree Type: Pioneer Valley in Pioneer Valley (Q4 2010) (2000–2010)
41 Job Vacancies and Vacancy Rates by Major Occupation 52 Certificates Awarded by Major Field of Study in Massachusetts (Q4 2010) (2000–2010)
42 Comparing Vacancy Rates and Educational Attainment: 53 Annual Completions by Top Five Certificate Majors in Pioneer Peak Labor Market Valley (2000–2010)
43 Comparing Vacancy Rates and Educational Attainment: 54 Associate’s Degrees Awarded by Major Field of Study Recovering Labor Market (2000–2010)
SECTION lll: Measuring the Pipeline—Educational Supply 55 Annual Completions by Top Five Associate’s Degree Majors from Post-Secondary Degrees Granted by Institutions in Pioneer Valley (2000–2010) Located in Pioneer Valley 56 Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded by Major Field of Study 44 Growth in Potential Supply of Educated Workers: Full-Time (2000–2010) Enrollment Trends in the Past Decade 57 Annual Completions by Top Five Bachelor’s Degree Majors 45 Number of Full-Time Enrollees by Type of Degree Granting in Pioneer Valley (2000–2010) Institution in Pioneer Valley (2000–2010)
46 Growth in Potential Supply of Educated Workers: Part-Time Enrollment Trends in the Past Decade
47 Number of Part-Time Enrollees by Type of Degree Granting Institution in Pioneer Valley (2000–2010) Executive Summary
Using the most recent data available, the Pio- The past decade has been challenging for the than the region’s unemployment rate at the be- neer Valley regional labor market profile pro- Pioneer Valley labor market. After two reces- ginning of the decade (3.0 percent). vides a detailed picture of the region’s current sions and a decade of declining employment, and future labor supply.1 For context, it also the region is now gaining jobs and recovering While high unemployment has impacted all provides detailed information on labor de- at a modest pace. Moreover, the recent recov- demographic groups, it has been disproportion- mand in the region over the past decade. This ery from the Great Recession has been some- ally concentrated among the young and those profile is designed to help guide workforce de- what stronger in the region than in the state with lower levels of education. For example, in velopment professionals, policy makers, and as a whole. Pioneer Valley has experienced 2008-2010 over 50 percent of the region’s unem- civic, education, and business leaders as they relatively broad-based improvement, with ployed were 34 years of age or younger, though make decisions about education and training stronger growth than the state in a majority of such individuals accounted for only 32 percent of opportunities. industries, helping to move the region ahead the region’s civilian labor force. Similarly, nearly in the first year of the recovery. 60 percent of those unemployed in Pioneer Val- The charts and analysis are divided into three ley had a High School Degree or less, while only sections: While the unemployment rate in the region was 38 percent of the region’s civilian labor force had nearly the same as the rate statewide through such an education. 1. Labor Supply: Demographic Trends of the first half of the past decade, the impact of Residents Who Live in Pioneer Valley the Great Recession was particularly severe in Massachusetts is one of the most highly edu- Pioneer Valley. The region’s unemployment rate cated states in the nation, but Pioneer Valley’s 2. Labor Demand: Employment Trends of Jobs reached 9.2 percent in 2010, slightly below the residents and workforce (which include people and Workers in Pioneer Valley national rate (9.6 percent) but far exceeding the who commute from other regions and other statewide rate (8.5 percent), making it the third states) have education levels similar to their 3. The Pipeline: Educational Supply of Post- highest rate among all regional labor markets. counterparts in the United States. Over the Secondary Degrees Granted by Institutions This was significantly higher than the region’s past decade, the region has seen progressively Located in Pioneer Valley unemployment rate following the 2001–02 re- higher levels of educational attainment among cession (5.8 percent in 2003) and much higher its residents and workforce, but a High School
1 This profile builds on the work of the 2008 regional labor market profiles completed by Paul Harrington and Neeta Fogg, formerly at Northeastern University’s Center for Labor Market Studies. This work employs their methodology and includes expanded analysis of the educational attainment of the region’s population, more detailed analysis of the distribution of oc- cupations by industry, and reviews of trends over a longer time period.
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 3 Degree continues to be the most common level ber of younger residents and workers in the sought post-secondary education over the past of educational attainment in the region. In 2008- region with the needed skills to replace baby decade. Although Pioneer Valley saw similar 2010, the share of the region’s civilian labor force boomers as they retire. This may be particular- growth in full-time and part-time enrollment with a Bachelor’s Degree or higher trailed that of ly troublesome given that 91.5 percent of the at less-than-two-year, two-year, and four-year Massachusetts (30.5 percent versus 41.2 percent). region’s employees are also residents; Pioneer institutions, the region trailed state and na- However, the share of the region’s civilian labor Valley may not be able to attract workers from tional growth rates during the same time pe- force with some post-secondary education (61.8 other regions to work in jobs with relatively riod. Similarly, the region saw more students percent) was closer to the share in Massachusetts low education requirements and pay, given that completing post-secondary degrees and pro- (67.8 percent) because of the region’s strong con- these positions are typically filled by less mobile grams (Certificates, Associate’s Degrees and centration of individuals with a Some College ed- populations. However, younger workers and Bachelor’s Degrees) but trailed Massachusetts ucation (i.e. Certificates) or an Associate’s Degree. those with lower levels of education, who are and the United States in the growth of such disproportionately unemployed, may provide a degree completions over the past decade. The Looking forward, the region faces the demo- future supply of labor that can be educated and strongest growth varied by postsecondary graphic challenges of an aging population and trained to address labor shortages. program and degree, with Health Sciences potential shortfalls in workers with the educa- growing fastest among Certificates and Arts, tional levels required by employers. In 2008- To foster strong economic growth in the fu- Humanities, & Social Sciences among Associ- 2010, 47.1 percent of the region’s civilian labor ture, Pioneer Valley should strive to align the ate’s Degrees. Bachelor’s Degrees growth was force was 45 years of age or older, while only education of its labor force to meet the de- spread across a wide range of fields of study. 31.9 percent was 34 or younger. This suggests mands of the region’s employers. The higher that the region’s businesses may face a potential education institutions in the region can play overall shortage of younger workers to replace a key role in influencing the future sup- baby boomers as they retire in the coming de- ply of workers with post-secondary degrees. Please visit www.bostonfed.org/neppc cades. And while the region’s residents have ob- This supply will be critical to help meet the for appendices describing geography and tained progressively higher levels of education demographic challenges posed by the aging methodology, and for additional data. in the past decade, slower growth in those with workforce and the increasing demand for Some College and Associate’s Degrees may re- educated workers. National and state enroll- sult in a potential future shortage in the num- ment patterns indicate that more individuals
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 4 www.bostonfed.org/neppc GEOGRAPHY OF THE REGIONAL LABOR MARKETS
The Pioneer Valley labor market borders two regional labor markets: Berkshire and Central Mass. It is composed of 73 Massachusetts cit- ies and towns covering all of Hampden, Hampshire, and Franklin counties. In addition to Springfield, the third most populous city in Massachusetts, the region contains a number of other larger cities and towns, including: Chicopee, Westfield, Holyoke, Amherst, and Northampton. Because of data limitations, in certain aspects of this analysis, such as industry/occupational distributions, Pioneer Val- Eight Regional Labor Market Areas ley is combined with the Berkshire, Cape & Islands, Central Mass, 1 Berkshire Region 2 Pioneer Valley Region Northeast, and Southeast regional labor markets and is referred to 3 Central Mass Region as the region Outside Greater Boston. See the on-line Geographic 4 Northeast Region Definitions Appendix for further details. 5 Boston/Metro North Region 6 Metro South/West Region 4 7 Southeast Region 8 Cape & Islands Region
5 1 2 3
6
7
8
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 5 PIONEER VALLEY REGION
MONROE ROWE LEYDEN BERNARDSTON HEATH COLRAIN NORTHFIELD WARWICK ROYALSTON
CHARLEMONT GILL GREENFIELD ERVING SHELBURNE BUCKLAND ORANGE HAWLEY ATHOL
PHILLIPSTON MONTAGUE WENDELL
PLAINFIELD ASHFIELD DEERFIELD CONWAY
LEVERETT NEW SALEM CUMMINGTON SHUTESBURY PETERSHAM GOSHEN
WHATELY SUNDERLAND
WORHTINGTON WILLIAMSBURG HATFIELD CHESTERFIELD PELHAM
MIDDLEFIELD AMHERST HADLEY NORTHAMPTON
CHESTER
WESTHAMPTON BELCHERTOWN WARE HUNTINGTON GRANBY
MONTGOMERY
SOUTHAMPTON EASTHAMPTON SOUTH HADLEY
HOLYOKE BLANFORD LUDLOW PALMER CHICOPEE RUSSELL
WESTFIELD
SPRINGFIELD WILBRAHAM BRIMFIELD
TOLLAND WEST SPRINGFIELD MONSON GRANVILLE
SOUTHWICK AGAWAM LONGMEADOW HAMPDEN WALES EAST HOLLAND LONGMEADOW
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 6 www.bostonfed.org/neppc EMPLOYMENT TRENDS AND RECESSIONS
Massachusetts reached peak employment in 2001 and remained 5.0 percent below its peak (a loss of 169,800 jobs) at the end of Non-Agricultural Employment for United States and Massachusetts, 2011. Over the same period, total employment in the United Q1 2000 to Q4 2011
States ended at only 0.4 percent below its 2001 peak (a loss of 1.06 513,700 jobs). One reason for the difference was that the short na- NBER Recession Massachusetts tional recession at the beginning of the decade created a prolonged 1.04 United States contraction and slow recovery in Massachusetts. By the start of the Great Recession, Massachusetts had still not recovered all of 1.02 the jobs it had lost during the previous downturn. In contrast, 1.00 the nation experienced a short labor market contraction in 2001, followed by a strong recovery that expanded employment up until 0.98
the Great Recession. The Great Recession impacted the nation se- Index 2000=1 verely, while Massachusetts experienced a less pronounced down- 0.96 turn, with a slightly stronger recovery through 2010 followed by slower employment growth in 2011. 0.94
These differences between Massachusetts and the United States 0.92 over the economic cycles are important to keep in mind when Q1−2000 Q1−2001 Q1−2002 Q1−2003 Q1−2004 Q1−2005 Q1−2006 Q1−2007 Q1−2008 Q1−2009 Q1−2010 Q1−2011 evaluating the performances of the eight regional labor markets. When possible, these labor market profiles will look at labor mar- ket information for the beginning of the millennium, the period preceding the Great Recession, and the decline in and recovery from the Great Recession.
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Note: Shaded bars are National Bureau of Economic Research dated national recessions.
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 7 Annual Growth Rates
2.0 Annual Growth Rate 2000 to 2005−2007 Annual Growth Rate 2005−2007 to 2008−2010 1.5 POPULATION GROWTH TRENDS 1.0 1.0 0.9
0.5 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 Pioneer Valley accounted for 10.8 percent of the state’s residential −0.1 population at the end of the decade, making it the fifth most pop- −0.5 ulous labor market. It was one of only two regions to decline in residential population between 2000 and 2005–2007, and it has Annual Growth Rate −1.0 experienced only a small increase in population in recent years. −1.5 As such, the region’s population was essentially unchanged over y s s t t the course of the past decade. In comparison, the state and five of Berkshire Northeas Southeas United State Central Mas the regional labor markets gained population in the past decade. Pioneer ValleMassachusetts Cape & Islands Metro South/West Only the Berkshire and Cape & Islands regions noticeably lost Boston/Metro North residential population over the full decade (2000 to 2008–2010).
Source: US Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMS) data files, 2005–2007 and 2008–2010 American Community Survey Public Use Massachusetts Population Distribution Across Regional Labor Markets, Micro Sample (PUMS) data files. 2008−2010 Cape & Islands Berkshire 3.8% 1.8% Note: The use of the three-year American Community Survey was necessary to capture accurate sample size for the small geographic areas. The three-year sample is representa- Central Mass Southeast tive of the demographic and employment characteristics of the region over a 36-month 10.6% 21% period.
Pioneer Valley 10.8%
Boston/ Metro North 19.2%
Northeast 16.2%
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region Metro South/West 8 www.bostonfed.org/neppc 16.6% DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE RESIDENT POPULATION OF PIONEER VALLEY
Over the past decade, the number of people living in Pioneer Annual Valley remained essentially the same. There was modest annual Absolute Growth Rate 2000 2008–2010 Change (Percent) growth in the region’s immigrant population (1.8 percent), but Resident Population 680,610 679,768 –842 0.0 a declining native-born population offset such gains. The region Gender became more diverse over the past decade, with strong growth Male 326,958 325,509 –1,449 0.0 among minority populations, most notably Asian and Hispanic Female 353,652 354,259 607 0.0 residents. The region’s population also became considerably older Nativity as baby boomers (born between 1946 and 1964) neared retire- Native Born 600,950 586,125 –14,825 –0.3 ment age. In particular, the 55–64-year-old age cohort grew at a Immigrant 79,660 93,643 13,983 1.8 robust annual rate of 5.0 percent over the course of the decade. Race/Ethnicity In contrast, the region experienced only modest annual growth White, non-Hispanic 547,634 515,440 –32,194 –0.7 (0.3 percent) in 16–24-year-olds, the children of baby boomers Black, non-Hispanic 35,871 37,056 1,185 0.4 who are commonly referred to as the echo-boom generation. This Asian, non-Hispanic 10,919 15,118 4,199 3.7 age group had much stronger growth in the Massachusetts re- Hispanic 74,134 100,538 26,404 3.4 gions that gained population in the past decade. With large losses Other race, non-Hispanic 12,052 11,616 –436 –0.4 among 25–44-year-olds and those 16 years of age or younger, the Age region’s population stagnated while it increased in age. Less than age 16 153,428 135,421 –18,007 –1.4 Age 16-24 77,393 79,561 2,168 0.3 Source: US Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008–2010 Age 25-34 86,272 78,184 –8,088 –1.1 American Community Survey PUMS data files. Age 35-44 112,169 90,277 –21,892 –2.4 Note: Further data for racial/ethnic and gender characteristics for the residential popula- Age 45-54 98,968 109,333 10,365 1.1 tion, as well as the working-age, civilian labor force, unemployed, and employed popula- tions, are available in the on-line Data Appendix. Age 55-64 58,644 90,742 32,098 5.0 Age 65+ 93,736 96,250 2,514 0.3
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 9 Annual Growth Rate, 2000 to 2005−2007
5.0 Total Native Born Immigrant GROWTH IN WORKING-AGE 4.0
POPULATION BY NATIVITY STATUS 3.2 3.0 2.8
2.4
Although the total population in Pioneer Valley remained essen- 2.0 tially the same over the course of the past decade, there was growth 1.2 in the region’s working-age population (a region’s potential labor 0.9
Annual Growth Rate 1.0 supply, typically defined as people 16 years of age or older). Be- 0.5 0.4 tween 2000 and 2005–2007, the number of working-age immi- 0.1 0.0 grants in the region grew at an annual rate of 2.4 percent, while 0.0 the region’s native-born working-age population increased by the slight annual rate of 0.1 percent. As a result, the total working-age −1.0 population actually grew at an annual rate of 0.4 percent, com- Pioneer Valley Massachusetts United States pared to no change in the total population. Between 2005–2007 and 2008–2010, the region’s native-born, working-age population declined slightly. However, the total working-age population in- Annual Growth Rate, 2005−2007 to 2008−2010
creased annually by a modest 0.2 percent due to a 2.0 percent an- 5.0 nual growth in the immigrant population. Despite such gains, the Total Native Born region trailed Massachusetts and the United States in the growth Immigrant of the working-age population in the past decade. 4.0
Source: US Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files, 2005–2007 and 2008-2010 American Community Survey PUMS data files. 3.0
Note: The working-age population is defined as individuals 16 years of age or older, 2.3 excluding institutionalized populations. Immigrants are individuals born outside the 2.0 2.0 country. 2.0
1.1 0.9
Annual Growth Rate 1.0 0.5
0.2 0.2 0.0 −0.2
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region −1.0 10 www.bostonfed.org/neppc Pioneer Valley Massachusetts United States Annual Growth Rate, 2000 to 2005−2007
5.0 4.8
4.4 Total 4.0 Native Born GROWTH IN THE CIVILIAN LABOR 3.7 Immigrant FORCE BY NATIVITY STATUS 3.0
The civilian labor force consists of the people who live in a region 2.0 and are either working or unemployed but actively looking for 1.5 work (a region’s actual labor supply). And as was the case with the 1.0 0.9 working-age population, immigrants are driving growth in Pioneer Annual Growth Rate 0.8 0.5 Valley’s civilian labor force. Despite little change in the number of 0.1 0.0 native-born individuals in the civilian labor force between 2000 0.0 and 2005–2007, the overall labor force in the region continued to grow. This growth was a result of a 3.7 percent annual growth −1.0 rate in the immigrant labor force. Between 2005–2007 and 2008– Pioneer Valley Massachusetts United States 2010, the number of native-born people in the region’s civilian labor force barely increased. Meanwhile, immigrants in the labor force continued to grow, but at a slower rate than in the first part Annual Growth Rate, 2005−2007 to 2008−2010 of the decade. As a result, the Pioneer Valley civilian labor force 5.0 increased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent but trailed the growth Total Native Born rates of both Massachusetts and the United States. Immigrant 4.0
Source: US Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files, 2005–2007 and 2008–2010 American Community Survey PUMS data files. 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 Note: The civilian labor force consists of all individuals 16 years of age or older who are classified as employed or unemployed and actively looking for work. Immigrants are individuals born outside the country. 2.0
1.4 1.2 1.0 1.0 Annual Growth Rate 0.8
0.5
0.1 0.0
−1.0 Pioneer Valley Massachusetts United States THE AGE PROFILE OF THE WORKING- Age Distribution of the Working-Age Population, AGE POPULATION 2000 and 2008−2010
100 Age 65+ 17.8 17.7 16.7 16.8 15.7 16.3 Age 55−64 Age 45−54 Massachusetts is one of the oldest states in the country, and Pio- Age 35−44 80 11.3 11.4 Age 25−34 neer Valley is even slightly older. Nearly 55 percent of the region’s 11.1 15.3 15.0 16.7 Age 16−24 working-age population was 45 years of age or older in 2008– 18.1 17.7 2010. In contrast, only 51.8 percent of the statewide working- 60 18.8 19.7 18.9 age population was 45 or older. The region’s older population 20.1 was largely due to two demographic trends over the course of the Percent 21.5 21.3 22.0 past decade: the slower growth of 16–24-year-olds and the faster 40 17.8 17.5 16.6 growth of 55–64-year-olds in the region relative to Massachu-
setts. Combined with the steep decline in the region’s popula- 18.4 16.9 16.4 14.4 18.9 16.3 tion of 25–44-year-olds, the age distribution of the working-age 20 population in Pioneer Valley in 2008-2010 was older than that 14.7 14.6 14.0 15.3 15.4 of Massachusetts and far older than that of the United States. 13.0 0 2000 2008−2010 2000 2008−2010 2000 2008−2010 Source: US Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008–2010 Pioneer Valley Massachusetts United States American Community Survey PUMS data files.
Growth of Working-Age Population by Age in Pioneer Valley Absolute Annual Growth 2000 2008–2010 Change Rate (Percent) Age 16–24 77,393 79,561 2,168 0.3 Age 25–34 86,272 78,184 –8,088 –1.1 Age 35–44 112,169 90,277 –21,892 –2.4 Age 45–54 98,968 109,333 10,365 1.1 Age 55–64 58,644 90,742 32,098 5.0 Age 65+ 93,736 96,250 2,514 0.3
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 12 www.bostonfed.org/neppc THE AGE PROFILE OF THE CIVILIAN Age Distribution of the Civilian Labor Force, 2000 and 2008−2010
LABOR FORCE 100 3.6 4.8 3.6 4.7 3.3 4.0 Age 65+ 10.8 10.8 10.2 Age 55−64 14.7 17.6 15.8 Age 45−54 Age 35−44 80 Given the age of the region’s population, it is not surprising that 21.8 Age 25−34 23.9 22.4 Age 16−24 Pioneer Valley is also seeing a rising share of its civilian labor force 23.3 23.9 in the older age groups. In the past decade, there has been particu- 24.7 60 larly strong growth in the civilian labor force of 55-to-64-year- 27.0 26.8 olds. The second fastest growing civilian labor force age cohort in 26.8 22.3
Percent 22.0 21.0 the region has been those 65 or older. At the same time, there have 40 been a declining number of individuals between the ages of 16 and
44 in the Pioneer Valley civilian labor force. As a result, the share 20.0 22.7 21.5 18.2 23.3 20.2 of the labor force age 45 or older grew from 38.3 percent in 2000 20 to 47.1 percent in 2008–2010. The share of the Pioneer Valley civilian labor force age 45 or older was greater than that of Mas- 14.9 13.7 12.9 13.2 15.2 14.2 0 sachusetts (44.4 percent) and the United States (42.0 percent). 2000 2008−2010 2000 2008−2010 2000 2008−2010
Pioneer Valley Massachusetts United States Source: US Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008–2010 American Community Survey PUMS data files.
Growth of Civilian Labor Force Population by Age in Pioneer Valley
Absolute Annual Growth 2000 2008–2010 Change Rate (Percent) Age 16–24 51,988 49,788 –2,200 –0.5 Age 25–34 69,785 66,374 –3,411 –0.6 Age 35–44 93,293 76,470 –16,823 –2.2 Age 45–54 83,305 89,861 6,556 0.8 Age 55–64 37,717 64,105 26,388 6.1 Age 65+ 12,570 17,336 4,766 3.6
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 13 EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF THE Educational Distribution of the Working-Age Population, WORKING-AGE POPULATION 2000 and 2008−2010
100 7.7 Master’s Degree or more 9.2 10.4 12.1 9.0 14.5 Bachelor’s Degree Associate’s Degree 13.6 14.3 While Massachusetts is one of the states with the highest share of 15.3 16.3 Some College, no degree 80 18.7 High School population with a college degree, the educational attainment of 21.1 5.9 7.8 Less than High School the working-age population in Pioneer Valley more closely resem- 8.5 7.1 6.9 bles that of the United States. Over the past decade, Pioneer Val- 60 19.1 7.1 21.6 19.6 22.5 ley experienced strong growth at each level of higher educational 17.9 attainment, with the working age population with a Bachelor’s Percent 18.0 Degrees or Master’s Degree increasing nearly 2.0 percent annually 40 29.9 27.8 in the past decade. The only decline occurred among those with 29.1 26.4 27.6 less than a High School Degree. The share of the population with 25.4 a High School Degree or less declined to 46.2 percent in 2008- 20 2010, nearly the same share as in the United States (45.2 percent) 22.8 20.5 17.1 18.0 17.6 but still well above the statewide share (39.3 percent). And while 13.9 0 the share of the population in Pioneer Valley with a Bachelor’s 2000 2008−2010 2000 2008−2010 2000 2008−2010 Degree or higher rose to 25.7 percent by the end of the decade; it Pioneer Valley Massachusetts United States was nearly 10 percentage points behind the share in Massachusetts (35.6 percent). Growth of Working-Age Population by Educational Attainment in Source: US Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008–2010 Pioneer Valley American Community Survey PUMS data files. Absolute Annual Growth 2000 2008–2010 Change Rate (Percent) Less than High School 108,115 93,034 –15,081 –1.7 High School Graduate 157,467 158,200 733 0.1 Some College, no degree 100,751 106,680 5,929 0.6 Associate's Degree 40,895 46,429 5,534 1.4 Bachelor's Degree 71,481 83,283 11,802 1.7
Master's Degree or more 48,473 56,721 8,248 1.8
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 14 www.bostonfed.org/neppc EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF THE Educational Distribution of the Civilian Labor Force, CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE 2000 and 2008−2010
100 Master’s Degree or more 11.5 12.1 9.4 10.5 14.8 16.8 Bachelor’s Degree Associate’s Degree When looking at those actually participating in the labor force, we 17.2 Some College, no degree 80 16.6 19.1 see somewhat higher levels of educational attainment. And much 18.4 High School 22.3 Less than High School like the region’s working-age population, the civilian labor force in 24.4 7.2 9.6 8.3 Pioneer Valley has had progressively stronger growth at each high- 10.3 60 7.9 er level of educational attainment. By 2008–2010, 30.5 percent of 7.9 23.9
Percent 21.4 21.0 24.0 the Pioneer Valley labor force had a Bachelor’s Degree or higher, 19.1 trailing the 41.2 percent in Massachusetts. However, 61.8 percent 40 18.7 of the civilian labor force in Pioneer Valley had completed at least 26.9 28.5 some post-secondary education (Some College or higher). This 28.0 24.3 26.3 trailed the nearly 68 percent of Massachusetts labor force who had 20 23.5 some post-secondary education but was identical to the 61.8 per- 15.5 cent rate nationwide. While educational attainment increased over 12.5 10.1 11.5 8.7 11.8 0 the course of the decade, the most common level of educational 2000 2008−2010 2000 2008−2010 2000 2008−2010 attainment among the civilian labor force in the region continued Pioneer Valley Massachusetts United States to be a High School Degree (28.0 percent in 2008–2010).
Source: US Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008–2010 American Community Survey PUMS data files. Growth of Civilian Labor Force Population by Educational Attainment in Pioneer Valley Absolute Annual Growth 2000 2008–2010 Change Rate (Percent) Less than High School 43,531 36,718 –6,813 –1.9 High School Graduate 99,351 102,076 2,725 0.3 Some College, no degree 74,523 76,508 1,985 0.3 Associate's Degree 33,331 37,413 4,082 1.3 Bachelor's Degree 57,777 67,035 9,258 1.7 Master's Degree or more 40,145 44,184 4,039 1.1
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 15 EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT BY AGE GROUP, PIONEER VALLEY (2008–2010)
If we look at the region’s population by both age and education,
we get an understanding of the workers who will be replacing the baby boomers. As the baby boomers have increased in age, Age 55−64 Master’s Degree or more Age 45−54 45–54-year-olds have become the largest age cohort in nearly all Age 35−44 educational attainment groups (the exception being those with a Age 25−34 Master’s Degree or higher). As the boomers near retirement age Bachelor’s Degree and, over time, leave the labor force, nearly every educational category faces a potential shortfall of workers. For example, in Associate’s Degree 2008–2010 there were more than 12,200 individuals with an As- sociate’s Degree between the ages of 45 and 54 in Pioneer Valley, but slightly less than 7,500 in the same category between the ages Some College, no degree of 25 and 34. This amounts to a potential shortage of more than 4,700 individuals, which is equivalent to 38.8 percent of the 45– High School 54 year-old population with such an education. However, such shortages may actually be much smaller, given the long-term trend of a shift toward employees with higher levels of education in most Less than High School occupations and industries. 0 8,000 16,000 24,000 32,000 40,000
Source: US Census Bureau 2008–2010 American Community Survey PUMS data files. Number of Working-Age Individuals Living in Region
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 16 www.bostonfed.org/neppc UNEMPLOYMENT RATE TRENDS Unemployment Rate, 2000 to 2010
10.0 Pioneer Valley 9.0 Massachusetts United States During the Great Recession, the unemployment rate nationwide 8.0 increased sharply, and the same was true in Pioneer Valley. Begin- 7.0 ning the decade at 3.0 percent, the region’s unemployment rate climbed to nearly 5.8 percent in 2003 before declining to slightly 6.0 under 5.0 percent in 2007. In the Great Recession, Pioneer Valley’s 5.0 unemployment rate jumped to 9.2 percent. Over the course of the Percent 4.0 decade, the region’s unemployment rate consistently exceeded that of Massachusetts, and it was the third highest unemployment rate 3.0 of all regional labor markets in 2010. 2.0
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics and Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development. 1.0
0.0 Note: The annual unemployment rate is a 12-month average of the non-seasonally- 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 adjusted unemployment rate.
Pioneer Valley Unemployment Relative Annual Growth 2000 2010 Change Rate (Percent) Unemployed 10,420 33,284 22,864 12.3 Employed 341,399 329,308 –12,091 –0.4 Civilian Labor Force 351,819 362,592 10,773 0.3 Unemployment Rate 3.0 9.2 - -
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 17 THE UNEMPLOYED: AGE DISTRIBUTION (2000 and 2008–2010)
While 32 percent of the civilian labor force in Pioneer Valley was
34 years of age or younger at the end of the decade, over 50 per- 100 1.3 2.2 2.9 2.4 4.1 2.8 Age 65+ 6.7 cent of the region’s unemployed was 34 or younger. This was down 6.4 Age 55−64 9.2 8.7 10.7 from 58.1 percent at the beginning of the decade, as the increasing 12.4 Age 45−54 16.4 14.3 Age 35−44 share of the population age 45 or older also translated into a high- 80 17.4 Age 25−34 19.4 er share of such individuals among the unemployed. However, the 18.0 Age 16−24 20.1 younger age cohorts continue to be disproportionately represented 17.4 20.6 among the unemployed. For example, 16–24-year-olds accounted 60 17.6 20.6 18.0 for the largest share of the unemployed (31.1 percent) among all 18.1 age cohorts in 2008–2010 but were the second smallest age cohort 20.6
in the civilian labor force (behind those age 65 and older), at only Percent 21.8 13.7 percent. In fact, such disproportional unemployment far ex- 40 19.8 21.3 21.7 19.0 ceeds that in both Massachusetts and the United States.
Source: US Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008–2010 20 American Community Survey PUMS data files. 37.5 34.6 31.1 29.5 26.4 28.9 Note: Unemployed are individuals age 16 or older not employed and actively looking for work. 0 2000 2008−2010 2000 2008−2010 2000 2008−2010 Pioneer Valley Massachusetts United States
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 18 www.bostonfed.org/neppc THE UNEMPLOYED: EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT (2000 AND 2008–2010)
Nearly 60 percent of those unemployed in Pioneer Valley had a High School Degree or less in 2008–2010, well above the share 100 2.9 3.8 5.7 3.9 6.9 7.1 Master’s Degree or more in both Massachusetts (50.5 percent) and the United States (56.0 7.3 Bachelor’s Degree 6.6 10.6 10.4 percent). This was down slightly from 63.4 percent in 2000, as 11.7 4.1 Associate’s Degree 15.7 Some College, no degree 7.0 5.1 5.7 the share of the unemployed with Some College education and a High School 80 5.9 Less than High School Bachelor’s Degree increased. However, people with lower levels of 5.8 19.6 17.4 education continue to be disproportionately represented among 20.5 17.6 24.1 the unemployed. In particular, in 2008–2010, those with less than 20.9 a high school education accounted for 24.4 percent of the unem- 60 ployed in Pioneer Valley but were only 10.1 percent of the civilian 30.2 29.7 labor force. Percent 35.5 28.7 40 32.6 Source: US Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008–2010 31.5 American Community Survey PUMS data files.
20 33.7 35.8 29.3 24.4 23.4 19.0
0 2000 2008−2010 2000 2008−2010 2000 2008−2010 Pioneer Valley Massachusetts United States
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 19 COMMUTING PATTERNS OF RESIDENTS AND WORKERS IN PIONEER VALLEY (2008–2010)
An overwhelming majority of the employed residents of Pioneer Number Percent of Total Valley work in the region, making Pioneer Valley one of the labor Total number of employed persons living in markets least likely to rely on commuters as a large share of its Pioneer Valley… 324,026 100.0 workforce. With 85.5 percent of the employed residents in the …who work in: region also working in the region, the largest share of outbound Pioneer Valley 277,172 85.5 Central Mass 8,718 2.7 commuters (7.3 percent of all employed residents) cross the bor- Berkshire 5,431 1.7 der to Connecticut for work, while only 5.8 percent commute to Other parts of Massachusetts 4,714 1.5 other Massachusetts labor markets (mostly to Berkshire and Cen- Connecticut 23,550 7.3 tral Mass). Even smaller shares of workers commute into Pioneer Vermont 1,337 0.4 Valley, with 91.5 percent of employees also being residents. The New York 1,032 0.3 largest group of inbound commuters crosses the Connecticut bor- Other places outside Massachusetts 2,072 0.6 der into Pioneer Valley (3.6 percent of all workers in the region), while smaller shares commute from a number of regional labor Total number of persons working in Pioneer Valley… 302,831 100.0 markets in Massachusetts, led by Central Mass (1.9 percent). As …who live in: a result, Pioneer Valley is a net exporter of workers, with nearly Pioneer Valley 277,172 91.5 21,200 more commuting out of the region every day than com- Central Mass 5,902 1.9 muting into the region. Berkshire 2,762 0.9 Other parts of Massachusetts 2,309 0.8 Source: US Census Bureau 2008–2010 American Community Survey PUMS data files. Connecticut 10,797 3.6 New York 1,039 0.3 Vermont 832 0.3 Other places outside Massachusetts 2,018 0.7
Net in-commuting (Number of Persons Employed in Region minus Number of Persons Living in Region) -21,195 -
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 20 www.bostonfed.org/neppc Changes in Total Employment
6 Q1 2001−Q1 2008 4.1 Q4 2007−Q4 2009 4 Q4 2009−Q4 2010 EMPLOYMENT TRENDS 1.9 2 1.5 0.8
0
−2 −2.1 While Pioneer Valley accounts for 10.8 percent of the state’s popu- −2.2 lation the region accounts for only 9.1 percent of the state’s em- −4 −4.0 −4.0 ployment, or more than 286,000 jobs. The employment trends Percent Change −6 in Pioneer Valley were similar to those in Massachusetts over the −6.1 past decade. The region’s employment declined at a rate nearly −8 identical to Massachusetts between 2001 and 2008 (2.2 percent y s s t t versus 2.1 percent), compared with a 4.1 percent gain nationwide. Berkshire Northeas Southeas United State Central Mas Both the region and state experienced more modest employment Pioneer ValleMassachusetts Cape & Islands Metro South/West losses than did the United States during the Great Recession, with Boston/Metro North employment in the region and state declining by 4.0 percent from 2007 to 2009, compared with 6.1 percent nationwide. But in the first year of the labor market recovery, employment in Pioneer Distribution of Employment Across Regional Labor Markets,Q4 2010 Valley increased by 1.9 percent, exceeding the gains in both Mas- Cape & Islands Berkshire sachusetts (1.5 percent) and the United States (0.8 percent). 3.1% 1.9% Pioneer Valley 9.1% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) and Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development Boston/Metro North ES-202. 29.6%
Note: ES-202 and QCEW are not seasonally adjusted. Therefore, comparisons need to Central Mass be made across consistent time periods, such as the first quarter of one year to the first 10.2% quarter of another. Comparisons between different quarters will be distorted, as seasonal employment in industries such as Retail Trade or Leisure & Hospitality vary considerably across regions.
Northeast 13.1%
Metro South/West 16.9%
Southeast 16.2% DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS Annual Absolute Growth Rate OF THE POPULATION EMPLOYED IN 2000 2008–2010 Change (Percent) PIONEER VALLEY Employed Population 300,226 302,831 2,605 0.1 Gender Male 150,804 147,270 –3,534 –0.3 With the employed residential population in Pioneer Valley mak- Female 149,422 155,561 6,139 0.4 ing up 91.5 percent of the region’s workforce, the demographic Nativity characteristics of the two groups are very similar. Over the past Native Born 269,501 261,737 –7,764 –0.3 decade, the region employed more immigrants but lost native- Immigrant 30,725 41,094 10,369 3.3 born workers. The region’s workers also became more diverse, Race/Ethnicity with growth in Black, Asian, and Hispanic employees. And much White, non-Hispanic 259,816 247,144 –12,672 –0.6 like the residential population of Pioneer Valley, there is a strong Black, non-Hispanic 12,904 15,346 2,442 1.9 Asian, non-Hispanic 4,772 7,508 2,736 5.2 concentration of older employees. Employees have been obtaining Hispanic 18,032 28,493 10,461 5.2 increasingly higher levels of education but workers with a High Other race, non-Hispanic 4,702 4,340 -362 –0.9 School Degree continue to be the largest educational attainment Age category of those employed in the region. Age 16–24 41,931 36,240 –5,691 –1.6 Age 25–34 59,038 55,650 –3,388 –0.7 Source: US Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008–2010 American Community Survey PUMS data files. Age 35–44 81,161 64,479 –16,682 –2.5 Age 45–54 73,078 75,578 2,500 0.4 Note: Further data for racial/ethnic and gender characteristics for total, working-age, and civilian labor force population are available in the on-line Data Appendix. Age 55–64 33,765 55,212 21,447 5.6 Age 65+ 11,253 15,672 4,419 3.7 Educational Attainment Less than High School 35,092 25,896 –9,196 –3.3 High School Graduate 85,122 83,200 –1,922 –0.3 Some College, no degree 64,678 63,451 –1,227 –0.2 Associate's Degree 28,050 32,446 4,396 1.6 Bachelor's Degree 51,071 58,578 7,507 1.5 Master's Degree or more 36,213 39,260 3,047 0.9
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 22 www.bostonfed.org/neppc Distribution of Employment 100 2.8 2.2 by Supersector (Q4 2010) 3.7 3.8 4.5 6.2 4.2 3.5 4.7 4.3 5.8
80 4.8 6.5 5.9 The largest sector of employment in Pioneer Valley is Education 9.7 8.1 9.1 & Health Services. Accounting for 33.2 percent of jobs in the 9.7 region, the sector is proportionately much larger in Pioneer Val- 9.6 10.5 ley than it is statewide and nationally. Compared with the state, 60 the region’s employment is also more concentrated in the Trade, 7.4 14.9 Transportation, & Utilities supersector, albeit less concentrated 13.6 than in the United States. The region also has smaller employ- Percent 19.1 ment concentrations in Information and Financial Activities, as 40 18.4 employment in such industries tends to be concentrated in the 20.7 Greater Boston regional labor markets. Pioneer Valley also has a notably smaller share of employment in Professional & Business Services (7.4 percent) than does Massachusetts (14.9 percent), 20 33.2 27.2 making it the fifth largest supersector for employment in the re- 24.3 gion. Like most regions outside of Greater Boston, Pioneer Val- ley has a higher employment concentration than does the state 0 in Manufacturing (9.7 percent versus 8.1 percent), making it the Pioneer Valley Massachusetts United States region’s third largest sector for employment. Information Manufacturing
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics QCEW and Massachusetts Executive Office of Construction Leisure & Hospitality Labor and Workforce Development ES-202. Professional & Other Services Business Services Note: Supersectors are groupings of major industry categories. See the on-line Data Ap- Government Trade, Transportation, pendix for the major industries that make up supersectors. & Utilities Financial Activities Education & Health Services
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 23 Changes in Employment During the Economic Downturn by Major Industry: PIONEER VALLEY
While Pioneer Valley lost jobs between 2007 and 2009, five in- (–14.1 percent), Manufacturing (–14.9 percent), and Con- dustries were able to avoid losses. Health Care & Social Assis- struction (–15.3 percent). Further employment contractions in tance, the largest industry in the region, increased employment the Trade, Transportation, & Utilities industries of Retail Trade by 2.5 percent and added over 1,200 jobs. The employment (–5.9 percent), Wholesale Trade (–8.5 percent), and Transpor- increases were mostly from the sub-industries of Ambulatory tation & Warehousing (–9.4 percent) resulted in an additional Health Care Services (1,090 jobs). An additional 1,200 jobs loss of 3,950 jobs. came from the other four industries that did not lose jobs. However, these gains were more than offset by a loss of nearly Source: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development ES-202. 8,700 jobs in industries hit hardest by the Great Recession: In- Note: Industries are sorted by size in Massachusetts in Q4 2009. See the on-line Data formation (–11.6 percent), Administrative & Support Services Appendix for supersector and major industry employment trends.
Q4 2009 Industry Employment Percent Change in Employment, Q4 2007 to Q4 2009
Health Care & Social Assistance 50,970 2.5 Retail Trade 33,159 −5.9 Educational Services 42,779 −0.5 Manufacturing 27,550 −14.9 Professional & Technical Services 7,312 −6.1 Accommodation & Food Services 22,345 −0.2 Financial Activities 13,880 −2.9 Administrative & Support Services 8,644 −14.1 Government 13,392 2.0 Other Services 16,361 4.7 Wholesale Trade 8,126 −8.5 Construction 10,094 −15.3 Transportation & Warehousing 10,666 −9.4 Information 4,619 −11.6 Management of Companies & Enterprises 3,744 −7.4 Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation 4,375 2.7 Utilities 2,024 5.5 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 −25 −20 −15 −10 −5 0 5 10 24 Total Employment Percent Change Changes in Employment During the Economic Downturn by Major Industry: Massachusetts
Massachusetts and Pioneer Valley experienced similar employ- Warehousing (–7.3 percent), and Wholesale Trade (–9.3 per- ment losses in the downturn and fairly similar employment cent). Divergences from this trend include the state’s employ- changes across industries. As in Pioneer Valley, the state’s stron- ment gains in Educational Services (1.9 percent), which declined gest employment gains came in the Health Care & Social Assis- in the region, and the region’s employment gains in Arts, Enter- tance industry (4.0 percent), resulting from strong growth in the tainment, & Recreation employment, which declined statewide. sub-industry of Ambulatory Health Care Services (7.7 percent). The state also experienced more modest growth, relative to Pio- The state also experienced significant losses in Administrative & neer Valley, in a number of other industries that added jobs. Support Services (–12.8 percent), Manufacturing (–13.5 per- cent), and Construction (–20.5 percent). Within Trade, Trans- Source: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development ES-202. portation, & Utilities, the state experienced large losses in three Note: Industries are sorted by size in Massachusetts in Q4 2009. major industries: Retail Trade (–4.7 percent), Transportation &
Q4 2009 Industry Employment Percent Change in Employment, Q4 2007 to Q4 2009
Health Care & Social Assistance 513,672 4.0 Retail Trade 343,529 −4.7 Educational Services 340,271 1.9 Manufacturing 253,893 −13.5 Professional & Technical Services 251,688 −1.5 Accommodation & Food Services 249,918 −1.3 Financial Activities 210,200 −6.3 Administrative & Support Services 153,897 −12.8 Government 134,821 0.7 Other Services 129,408 1.5 Wholesale Trade 126,056 −9.3 Construction 120,643 −20.5 Transportation & Warehousing 96,482 −7.3 Information 89,588 −4.2 Management of Companies & Enterprises 58,547 −4.3 Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation 49,513 −0.8 Utilities 13,728 3.0 0 150,000 300,000 450,000 600,000 −25 −20 −15 −10 −5 0 5 10 Total Employment Percent Change Industries Driving the Recovery: PIONEER VALLEY
Since the trough of the downturn, Pioneer Valley has experienced tive & Support Services also experienced strong growth, increasing modest growth across a broad set of industries. Only four indus- employment by 12.8 percent by adding over 1,100 jobs. Combin- tries lost jobs between the fourth quarters of 2009 and 2010, with ing these figures with modest growth in most other industries, the the largest decline in Information (292 jobs, or –6.3 percent). region added nearly 5,300 jobs, increasing employment by 1.9 While a number of industries expanded employment, the largest percent in the first year of the recovery. number (1,317 jobs) was added by the Other Services industry, Source: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development ES-202. which includes jobs in Laundry, Maintenance, and Membership Organizations. Of the jobs gained in Other Services in the first Note: Industries are sorted by size in Massachusetts in Q4 2010. year of the expansion, 1,290 were in Private Household employ- ment (e.g., cooks, maids, chauffeurs, and gardeners). Administra-
Q4 2010 Industry Employment Percent Change in Employment, Q4 2009 to Q4 2010
Health Care & Social Assistance 51,632 1.3 Retail Trade 33,674 1.6 Educational Services 43,107 0.8 Accommodation & Food Services 22,607 1.2 Manufacturing 27,696 0.5 Professional & Technical Services 7,410 1.3 Financial Activities 13,694 −1.3 Administrative & Support Services 9,751 12.8 Government 13,538 1.1 Other Services 17,678 8.0 Wholesale Trade 8,308 2.2 Construction 10,591 4.9 Transportation & Warehousing 10,494 −1.6 Information 4,327 −6.3 Management of Companies & Enterprises 3,892 4.0 Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation 4,816 10.1 Utilities 2,014 −0. 5 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 −10 −5 0 5 10 15 Total Employment Percent Change 26 Industries Driving the Recovery: Massachusetts
Massachusetts has also had a broad-based recovery. The state ex- dustries: Financial Activities, Wholesale Trade, and Management panded employment in industries ranging from a 0.1 percent in- of Companies & Enterprises. In total, the state added over 47,000 crease in Information to a 5.4 percent increase in Administrative & jobs, increasing employment by 1.5 percent in the earliest stages Support Services between the fourth quarters of 2009 and 2010. of the recovery. Such growth trailed that of Pioneer Valley—the The Health Care & Social Assistance industry added over 12,100 region experienced stronger employment gains than did the state jobs, an increase in employment of 2.4 percent in the recovery to in nine out of 17 industries between the fourth quarters of 2009 date. Job growth was spread across a number of the sub-industries and 2010. that make up Health Care & Social Assistance, including: Social Source: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development ES-202. Assistance (3,200 jobs), Ambulatory Health Care Services (3,300 jobs), and Hospitals (5,600 jobs). Between the fourth quarters of Note: Industries are sorted by size in Massachusetts in Q4 2010. 2009 and 2010, the state experienced slight declines in three in-
Q4 2010 Industry Employment Percent Change in Employment, Q4 2009 to Q4 2010
Health Care & Social Assistance 525,816 2.4 Retail Trade 351,143 2.2 Educational Services 340,471 0.1 Accommodation & Food Services 258,398 3.4 Manufacturing 256,425 1.0 Professional & Technical Services 254,371 1.1 Financial Activities 207,732 −1.2 Administrative & Support Services 162,164 5.4 Government 135,576 0.6 Other Services 135,138 4.4 Wholesale Trade 123,919 −1.7 Construction 121,231 0.5 Transportation & Warehousing 97,961 1.5 Information 89,700 0.1 Management of Companies & Enterprises 57,652 −1. 5 Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation 51,209 3.4 Utilities 14,167 3.2 0 150,000 300,000 450,000 600,000 −10 −5 0 5 10 15 Total Employment Percent Change Educational Attainment of Health Care & Social Assistance 27.2 38.2 34.6 Employees by Major Industry in Retail Trade 47.5 35.2 17.3 PIONEER VALLEY (2008–2010) Educational Services 15.8 19.8 64.4
Accommodation & Food Services 58.0 32.7 9.3 An increasing number of workers in Pioneer Valley had a Bache- lor’s Degree or higher over the past decade, but the most common Manufacturing 51.6 27.9 20.5
level of educational attainment among the region’s employees re- Professional & Technical Services 13.6 21.2 65.1 mains a High School Degree. As a result, the educational attain- Financial Activities 20.6 36.5 42.8 ment level of employees by industries is fairly evenly split in Pio- neer Valley. In 2008–2010, seven of the 17 major industries in the Administrative & Support Services 49.1 32.4 18.5 region had a workforce where the largest share of employees had a Government 22.0 38.4 39.7 Bachelor’s Degree or higher. Another eight industries had a High Other Services 47.9 32.5 19.6 School Degree or less as the largest category. In a few industries, there was a clear majority of employees with a Bachelor’s Degree Wholesale Trade 41.0 35.8 23.3 or higher, such as Professional & Technical Services, or a clear Construction 57.4 29.2 13.4
majority with a High School Degree or less, such as Construction. Transportation & Warehousing 48.5 37.1 14.3 In most industries, however, the educational attainment of em- Information 23.6 34.0 42.5 ployees was somewhat evenly distributed, including 15 industries having at least 25 percent of employees with Some College educa- Management of Companies & Enterprises 58.4 41.6
tion or an Associate’s Degree. Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation 32.0 29.7 38.3
Source: US Census Bureau 2008–2010 American Community Survey PUMS data files. Utilities 26.8 34.1 39.1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Note: Industries are sorted by size in Massachusetts in Q4 2010. Percent
High School Degree or Less
Some College or Associate’s Degree
Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 28 www.bostonfed.org/neppc Educational Attainment of Health Care & Social Assistance 23.0 33.2 43.8 Employees by Major Industry in Retail Trade 42.1 33.1 24.8 Massachusetts (2008–2010) Educational Services 11.7 15.5 72.7
Accommodation & Food Services 52.9 30.4 16.7 The educational attainment across industries in Massachusetts was much higher than in Pioneer Valley in 2008–2010. In Massachu- Manufacturing 37.3 23.8 38.8 setts, nine of the 17 major industries had a workforce where the Professional & Technical Services 8.0 15.9 76.1 largest share of employees had a Bachelor’s Degree or higher. And Financial Activities 16.6 26.3 57.1 in nearly every major industry statewide (16 of the 17, all but Utili- ties), the share of employees with a Bachelor’s Degree or higher was Administrative & Support Services 46.7 26.8 26.5 greater than for their industrial counterparts in Pioneer Valley. Only Government 20.2 31.2 48.6 two industries in Massachusetts had a higher share of employees Other Services 47.5 26.6 25.9 with a High School Degree or less than in Pioneer Valley. Massa- chusetts also had a lower share of employees with Some College Wholesale Trade 38.0 28.4 33.7 education or an Associate’s Degree than Pioneer Valley in nearly all Construction 56.5 27.6 16.0 industries. However, the share of employees with a post-secondary Transportation & Warehousing 45.5 35.8 18.7 education (Some College or Higher) in Massachusetts was higher Information 18.1 25.8 56.1 than in Pioneer Valley for 15 of the 17 major industries. Management of Companies & Enterprises 4.7 34.7 60.6
Source: US Census Bureau 2008–2010 American Community Survey PUMS data files. Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation 29.2 27.1 43.8
Utilities 31.9 35.4 32.7 Note: Industries are sorted by size in Massachusetts in Q4 2010. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Percent
High School Degree or Less
Some College or Associate’s Degree
Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 29 Employment by Major Occupation: Office & Administrative Support PIONEER VALLEY (2008–2010) 43,947 Management 27,466
Sales 30,651
Industries are where people work, and occupations are what peo- Education, Training, & Library Services 24,563
ple do. Occupations help to capture what types of workers are in Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Services 19,725 demand by businesses. In Pioneer Valley, Office & Administra- Business & Financial Operations 10,198 tive Support is the largest occupational group, accounting for 14.5 percent of the region’s jobs in 2008–2010. However, the number Food Preparation & Serving 16,671
of jobs in the occupation in 2008-2010 was actually fewer than in Production 22,173 2000. Sales jobs make up the second largest occupational group Construction & Extraction 12,632 and increased over the course of the decade. Employment in- creased in occupations that are closely associated with growing in- Transportation & Material Moving 16,172
dustries, such as Healthcare Support occupations with a very high Computer & Mathematical 5,677 employment concentration in Health Care & Social Assistance. Building, Grounds Cleaning, & Maintenance 11,627 Similarly, some occupations that are strongly concentrated in de- clining industries have contracted, such as Production occupations Personal Care & Service 11,942
in the Manufacturing sector. Installation, Maintenance, & Repair 9,201
Healthcare Support 10,346 Source: US Census Bureau 2008–2010 American Community Survey PUMS data files.
Architecture & Engineering 4,311 Note: All Other occupations are composed of Community & Social Services, Legal, Protective Services, Farming, Fishing, & Forestry, and Military Specific. Occupations are Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, & Media 5,102 sorted largest to smallest by size in Massachusetts in 2008-2010. See the on-line Data Appendix for occupational employment trends. Life, Physical, & Social Sciences 3,531
All Other 16,896
0 15,000 30,000 45,000 60,000
Total Employment
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 30 www.bostonfed.org/neppc Employment by Major Office & Administrative Support 427,942 Occupation: Massachusetts Management 361,784 (2008–2010) Sales 341,987
Massachusetts’s occupational composition, much like its indus- Education, Training, & Library Services 224,125 trial composition, is somewhat different from that of Pioneer Val- Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Services 206,570 ley. Office & Administrative Support is the largest occupation and Business & Financial Operations 182,274 accounts for over 13 percent of employment in the state. How- ever, the state has much stronger employment concentrations in Food Preparation & Serving 156,569
Management, Business & Financial Operations, and Computer Production 150,718 & Mathematical occupations compared with Pioneer Valley. In Construction & Extraction 141,117 turn, Pioneer Valley has stronger occupational concentrations in Production and in Transportation & Material Moving. Despite Transportation & Material Moving 137,293 such differences in occupational compositions, Pioneer Valley and Computer & Mathematical 117,131 Massachusetts saw fairly similar occupational employment trends Building, Grounds Cleaning, & Maintenance 113,645 over the past decade. The few major differences were the statewide growth in Education, Training, & Library Services and in Business Personal Care & Service 109,130
& Financial occupations, both of which declined slightly in the Installation, Maintenance, & Repair 84,466 region, and Pioneer Valley’s growth in Computer & Mathematical Healthcare Support 82,801 occupations, which declined statewide. Architecture & Engineering 73,448 Source: US Census Bureau 2008–2010 American Community Survey PUMS data files. Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, & Media 67,139 Note: All Other occupations are composed of Community & Social Services, Legal, Protective Services, Farming, Fishing, & Forestry, and Military Specific. Occupations are Life, Physical, & Social Sciences 60,453 sorted largest to smallest by size in Massachusetts in 2008–2010. See the on-line Data Appendix for occupational employment trends. All Other 184,712
0 150,000 300,000 450,000 600,000
Total Employment
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 31 Distribution of Occupations across Supersectors outside Greater Boston (2008–2010)
Because changes in industries and occupations can impact each Source: US Census Bureau 2008–2010 American Community Survey PUMS data files. other, it is important to see how occupations are distributed across Note: Due to sample size limitations in the Census and American Community Survey, industries. Unfortunately, data limitations make it difficult to do it is not possible to provide an occupational distribution across industries for small geo- this for small geographic regions. Due to the different composi- graphic areas. Therefore, Metro South/West and Boston/Metro North were grouped to increase observations and provide an occupation/industry distribution for Greater Boston. tions of Metro South/West and Boston/Metro North relative to With relatively strong concentrations in the occupational categories of Management and the other labor markets, we have split Massachusetts into two Business & Financial Operations, and in the supersectors of Professional & Technical Ser- vices and Financial Activities, the labor market compositions of Metro South/West and labor markets: Greater Boston (Metro South/West and Boston/ Boston/Metro North are fairly similar. When combined, these two regions account for Metro North) and Outside Greater Boston (the other six labor 46.4 percent of the state’s employment. In comparison, the labor markets outside of the Greater Boston region (Berkshire, Pioneer Valley, Central Mass, Northeast, Southeast, and markets, including Pioneer Valley). Some occupations in the Out- the Cape & Islands) tend to have stronger concentrations in the supersectors of Trade, side Greater Boston labor market are concentrated in one or two Transportation, & Utilities, Leisure & Hospitality, and/or Manufacturing, and in the occu- pational categories of Sales, Office & Administrative Support, and Production. While there industries, while other occupations are spread across a number of are differences among the regional labor markets exclusive of Greater Boston, industrial industries. Consider that nearly 95 percent of Education, Train- and occupational concentrations are likely similar enough to approximate their distribu- tions for these labor markets. ing, & Library Service jobs are located in the Education & Health Services supersector. In contrast, Management jobs account for more than 10 percent of employment in every supersector except Construction.
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 32 www.bostonfed.org/neppc Distribution of Occupations across Supersectors outside Greater Boston (2008–2010)
Education Trade, Professional & Health Transportation, & Business Leisure Financial All Services & Utilities Services Manufacturing & Hospitality Activities Construction Other Industries Office & Administrative Support 22.4 26.1 10.3 9.4 3.5 13.6 2.6 12.1 100.0 Management 19.6 10.7 10.5 17.3 10.2 11.2 8.7 11.8 100.0 Sales 0.9 68.5 3.7 5.7 4.5 11.2 0.6 5.0 100.0 Education, Training, & Library Services 94.8 0.2 0.4 0.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.1 100.0 Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Services 86.4 6.5 4.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.1 2.3 100.0 Business & Financial Operations 10.0 12.1 22.4 12.7 1.4 27.9 2.7 10.8 100.0 Food Preparation & Serving 11.9 5.5 0.2 0.5 80.0 0.4 0.0 1.4 100.0 Production 3.1 11.3 3.5 73.2 1.0 0.2 0.8 6.9 100.0 Construction & Extraction 2.2 3.0 1.7 2.7 0.1 0.9 88.3 1.1 100.0 Transportation & Material Moving 4.4 62.1 4.8 13.7 4.8 1.2 3.0 6.1 100.0 Computer & Mathematical 9.8 7.5 38.4 20.7 0.8 12.4 0.1 10.5 100.0 Building, Grounds Cleaning, & Maintenance 26.9 5.1 37.0 2.4 10.8 4.0 0.5 13.3 100.0 Personal Care & Service 40.2 2.4 1.6 0.0 14.5 0.3 0.1 41.0 100.0 Installation, Maintenance, & Repair 3.3 26.3 4.6 13.5 2.5 2.6 8.4 38.7 100.0 Healthcare Support 92.6 1.0 1.4 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.1 100.0 Architecture & Engineering 2.5 5.8 31.8 50.6 0.2 0.4 3.6 5.2 100.0 Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, & Media 12.0 11.6 22.6 8.6 20.4 1.4 0.5 22.9 100.0 Life, Physical, & Social Sciences 36.7 2.8 28.5 18.2 0.9 1.9 0.3 10.6 100.0 All Other 28.9 3.4 17.4 0.8 3.6 1.9 0.1 43.7 100.0
All Occupations 26.8 19.4 9.4 11.9 8.3 6.3 6.1 11.6 100.0
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 33 Distribution of Occupations within Supersectors in Greater Boston (2008–2010)
We can also consider what the distribution of occupations within Source: US Census Bureau 2008–2010 American Community Survey PUMS data files.
a given supersector looks like. Certain occupations account for Note: Due to sample size limitations in the Census and American Community Survey, major shares of employment within a supersector. For example, it is not possible to provide an occupational distribution across industries for small geographic areas. Therefore, Metro South/West and Boston/Metro North were grouped Outside Greater Boston sees nearly 45 percent of its employment to increase observations and provide an occupation/industry distribution for Greater Bos- in the Education & Health Services supersector coming from two ton. With relatively strong concentrations in the occupational categories of Management and Business & Financial Operations, and in the supersectors of Professional & Technical occupations: Education, Training, & Library Services and Health- Services and Financial Activities, the labor market compositions of Metro South/West care Practitioners & Technical Services. Further, the Construction and Boston/Metro North are fairly similar. When combined, these two regions account for 46.4 percent of the state’s employment. In comparison, the labor markets outside of supersector has over two-thirds of its employment in Construction the Greater Boston region (Berkshire, Pioneer Valley, Central Mass, Northeast, Southeast, & Extraction occupations. While some occupations account for and the Cape & Islands) tend to have stronger concentrations in the supersectors of Trade, Transportation, & Utilities, Leisure & Hospitality, and/or Manufacturing, and in an overwhelming majority of the employment in a given supersec- the occupational categories of Sales, Office & Administrative Support, and Production. tor, others consistently account for a large share of employment in While there are differences among the regional labor markets exclusive of Greater Boston, industrial and occupational concentrations are likely similar enough to approximate their each supersector. In fact, the two largest occupational groups— distributions for these labor markets. Office & Administrative Support and Management—together ac- count for a sizable share of jobs within every supersector (ranging from 18.0 percent in Leisure & Hospitality to 47.7 percent of Financial Activities).
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 34 www.bostonfed.org/neppc Distribution of Occupations within Supersectors in Greater Boston (2008–2010)
Education Trade, Professional & Health Transportation, & Business Leisure & Financial All Services & Utilities Services Manufacturing Hospitality Activities Construction Other Industries Office & Administrative Support 11.7 18.9 15.3 11.1 5.9 30.2 5.9 14.7 14.0 Management 7.2 5.4 11.0 14.3 12.1 17.5 14.0 10.1 9.9 Sales 0.4 40.0 4.5 5.4 6.1 20.0 1.0 4.9 11.3 Education, Training, & Library Services 24.7 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.9 7.0 Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Services 20.2 2.1 2.7 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 1.3 6.3 Business & Financial Operations 1.6 2.6 10.1 4.5 0.7 18.7 1.8 3.9 4.2 Food Preparation & Serving 2.4 1.5 0.1 0.2 51.6 0.3 0.0 0.7 5.4 Production 0.7 3.5 2.3 37.4 0.7 0.2 0.8 3.6 6.1 Construction & Extraction 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.0 0.7 68.1 0.5 4.7 Transportation & Material Moving 0.8 15.9 2.5 5.7 2.8 0.9 2.5 2.6 5.0 Computer & Mathematical 0.9 0.9 9.6 4.1 0.2 4.6 0.0 2.1 2.4 Building, Grounds Cleaning, & Maintenance 3.6 1.0 14.3 0.7 4.7 2.3 0.3 4.2 3.6 Personal Care & Service 5.6 0.5 0.6 0.0 6.5 0.1 0.0 13.2 3.7 Installation, Maintenance, & Repair 0.4 4.0 1.5 3.4 0.9 1.2 4.0 9.8 3.0 Healthcare Support 11.3 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.2 3.3 Architecture & Engineering 0.2 0.6 6.8 8.5 0.0 0.1 1.2 0.9 2.0 Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, & Media 0.7 1.0 3.9 1.2 4.0 0.4 0.1 3.2 1.6 Life, Physical, & Social Sciences 1.5 0.2 3.3 1.6 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.0 1.1 All Other 5.8 1.0 10.0 0.4 2.3 1.7 0.1 20.4 5.4
All Occupations 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 35 educational attainment of Office & Administrative Support 40.5 43.5 16.0 employees by major occupation Management 20.1 30.0 49.9
in PIONEER VALLEY (2000) Sales 45.7 31.8 22.4
Education, Training, & Library Services 6.9 14.7 78.4
By looking at the educational attainment of an occupational Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Services 6.5 43.1 50.4 group, we better understand the education required in that field Business & Financial Operations 17.2 29.1 53.7 of employment. In 2000, in Office & Administrative Support oc- Food Preparation & Serving 63.9 29.3 6.8 cupations, 43.5 percent of employees in Pioneer Valley had Some College education or an Associate’s Degree, and a slightly smaller Production 68.6 25.8 5.5 percentage (40.5 percent) had a High School Degree or less. By Construction & Extraction 66.3 25.2 8.5 comparison, 49.9 percent of employees in Management had a Transportation & Material Moving 70.1 24.5 5.4
Bachelor’s Degree or higher. Educational attainment gives some Computer & Mathematical 13.5 36.2 50.3 indication of the skills requirement, but it is not a perfect proxy Building, Grounds Cleaning, & Maintenance 69.9 23.9 6.2 for skill. Some occupations require significant training, certifica- Personal Care & Service 50.4 37.4 12.2 tions, or other credentials. For example, in Installation, Mainte- nance, & Repair occupations, 62.7 percent of employees have a Installation, Maintenance, & Repair 62.7 31.9 5.3 High School Degree or less, but these occupations often require Healthcare Support 49.1 41.1 9.8 apprenticeships, professional certifications, or significant on-the- Architecture & Engineering 11.6 31.6 56.8
job training. Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, & Media 15.0 26.6 58.4
Source: US Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files. Life, Physical, & Social Sciences 6.5 11.4 82.1 All Other 20.5 28.9 50.7
Note: Occupations are sorted by size in Massachusetts in 2008–2010 American Com- 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 munity Survey PUMS data files. Percent
High School Degree or Less
Some College or Associate’s Degree
Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 36 www.bostonfed.org/neppc Educational Attainment of Office & Administrative Support 38.9 43.5 17.6 Employees by Major Occupation Management 18.1 29.0 52.9 in PIONEER VALLEY (2008–2010) Sales 38.6 36.5 24.9
Education, Training, & Library Services 6.4 16.2 77.4
Over the past decade, the share of employees with a Bachelor’s Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Services 6.3 39.6 54.1 Degree or higher increased in 16 of the 19 major occupations in Business & Financial Operations 13.1 28.6 58.3 Pioneer Valley. For example, the share of Computer & Mathemat- Food Preparation & Serving 61.2 31.4 7.4 ical employees with a Bachelor’s Degree or higher grew by more than 16 percentage points to reach 67.0 percent in 2008–2010. Production 64.2 28.1 7.7 Even occupations with a mix of educational levels, such as Office Construction & Extraction 63.0 29.1 7.9 & Administrative Support, saw declines in the share of employees Transportation & Material Moving 67.7 26.2 6.1 with a High School Degree or less and growth in the share of Computer & Mathematical 8.7 24.3 67.0 employees with a Bachelor’s Degree or higher. The educational at- Building, Grounds Cleaning, & Maintenance 65.5 25.1 9.4 tainment of employees even increased in occupations where work- Personal Care & Service 43.2 39.2 17.6 ers traditionally have less education, such as Production. As such, nine occupations in the region had a majority of employees with a Installation, Maintenance, & Repair 55.0 37.6 7.5 Bachelor’s Degree or higher in 2008–2010, while six occupations Healthcare Support 43.9 42.0 14.1 had a majority of employees with a High School Degree or less. Architecture & Engineering 15.2 31.8 53.0
Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, & Media 12.2 23.2 64.6 Source: US Census Bureau 2008–2010 American Community Survey PUMS data files. Life, Physical, & Social Sciences 13.7 82.6
Note: Occupations are sorted by size in Massachusetts in 2008–2010 American Com- All Other 20.1 22.2 57.6 munity Survey PUMS data files. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Percent
High School Degree or Less
Some College or Associate’s Degree
Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 37 Educational Attainment of Office & Administrative Support 35.3 40.4 24.3 Employees by Major Occupation Management 13.5 21.2 65.3
in Massachusetts (2008–2010) Sales 31.5 31.0 37.5
Education, Training, & Library Services 5.8 13.2 81.0
Despite the increasing levels of educational attainment across oc- Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Services 6.4 29.9 63.8 cupations in Pioneer Valley, the region still tends to have lower Business & Financial Operations 7.4 18.7 73.8 levels of educational attainment compared with Massachusetts. Of Food Preparation & Serving 57.9 30.2 11.8 the 19 major occupation groups in Massachusetts, 17 had greater shares of employees with a Bachelor’s Degree or higher compared Production 65.6 23.2 11.1 with those in Pioneer Valley in 2008–2010. These included oc- Construction & Extraction 64.0 27.2 8.8 cupations that had a majority of employees with high levels of Transportation & Material Moving 63.4 27.4 9.2
education (e.g., Management and Business & Financial Opera- Computer & Mathematical 4.8 18.4 76.8 tions), mixed educational attainment (e.g., Office & Administra- Building, Grounds Cleaning, & Maintenance 71.6 20.0 8.5 tive Support), and predominantly lower education levels (e.g., Personal Care & Service 44.7 35.2 20.1 Construction & Extraction). However, Pioneer Valley had much higher concentrations of employees with Some College or an As- Installation, Maintenance, & Repair 55.4 35.3 9.4 sociate’s Degree in 16 of the 19 major occupations. But 13 of the Healthcare Support 42.5 44.2 13.3 major 19 occupations in Massachusetts still had higher shares of Architecture & Engineering 7.7 21.0 71.3
employees with some post-secondary education (Some College or Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, & Media 10.7 18.6 70.7
higher) than in Pioneer Valley. Life, Physical, & Social Sciences 7.7 88.8
Source: US Census Bureau 2008–2010 American Community Survey PUMS data files. All Other 16.2 22.9 60.9 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Note: Occupations are sorted by size in Massachusetts in 2008–2010 American Com- Percent munity Survey PUMS data files.
High School Degree or Less
Some College or Associate’s Degree
Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 38 www.bostonfed.org/neppc Job Vacancy Rates
5 Q4 2007 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Job Vacancies in the Great 4 Recession And recovery 3.2
3 2.8 2.7 2.6
2.2 2.0 Job vacancies exist even in a healthy labor market due to turnover 2 and constant flux in the labor market. As businesses expand, they Vacancy Rate need to hire individuals who meet specific skill requirements, and employees with skills that are in demand leave jobs for better posi- 1 tions. As the economy enters a downturn, job vacancies decline due to an overall decline in labor demand, there is an increase 0 in the number of applicants available to fill positions, and there y s n t t is lower turnover as employees stay longer in jobs. At the end of Berkshire Northeas Southeas Central Mas 2007, the job vacancy rate in Pioneer Valley was 2.7 percent, the Pioneer Valle Massachusetts Cape & Islands Greater Bosto lowest of all regional labor markets. As a result of the Great Reces- sion, the regional vacancy rate declined to 2.0 percent by the end of 2009. But as the economy started to recover, the vacancy rate Distribution of Job Vacancies Across Regional Labor Markets, Q4 2010 rose by more than half a percentage point, reaching 2.6 percent Berkshire Cape & Islands 2.6% by the end of 2010. At that point, Pioneer Valley accounted for 2.7% Central Mass 9.1 percent of the state’s employment but only 8.5 percent of the 8.2% job vacancies.
Pioneer Valley Source: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development Job 8.5% Vacancy Survey.
Note: The Massachusetts Job Vacancy Survey is collected for seven regions in the state. Vacancy rates are calculated by taking the total number of job vacancies and dividing by the total number employed in the region. The Greater Boston region covers portions of the Northeast, Metro South/West, Central Mass, and Southeast regions of the regional labor market profiles. The vacancy information for the Greater Boston region is used Southeast Greater Boston as an approximation of the vacancies trends experienced in the Metro South/West and 10.9% 54.6% Boston/Metro North regions.
Northeast 12.6% Job Vacancies and Vacancy Rates by Major Occupation in Greater Boston (Q4 2010)
At the end of 2010, 46.3 percent of the vacancies in Pioneer Valley Share of Job Vacancy were concentrated in three occupations (Sales, Office & Adminis- Number of Vacancy Rate Vacancies (Percent) (Percent) trative Support, and Food Preparation & Serving). Sales positions Total 6,650 100.0 2.6 accounted for the largest share of vacancies (22.1 percent) and the Sales 1,469 22.1 5.4 highest vacancy rate (5.4 percent) of all occupations in Pioneer Office & Administrative Support 695 10.5 1.5 Valley. However, some of these positions, especially in retail, are Food Preparation & Serving Related 916 13.8 3.8 seasonal in nature. Other occupations with a large number of va- Business & Financial Operations 384 5.8 4.3 cancies and an above-average vacancy rate included Business & Fi- Healthcare Practitioner & Technical 463 7.0 2.3 nancial Operations and Healthcare Support. In contrast, Office & Computer & Mathematical * - 1.1 Administrative Support was an example of an occupational group Management 136 2.0 1.1 with a large share of total vacancies (10.5 percent) but a relatively Healthcare Support 446 6.7 4.4 low vacancy rate (1.5 percent). Not surprisingly, the region saw Transportation & Material Moving 330 5.0 2.0 low numbers of vacancies and vacancy rates in occupations hit Education, Training & Library 218 3.3 0.8 hardest by the Great Recession, such as Construction & Extrac- Personal Care & Service * - 3.2 tion (with a vacancy rate of 0.6 percent). Production 359 5.4 1.7
Source: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development Job Architecture & Engineering 41 0.6 1.5 Vacancy Survey. Building, Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance 270 4.1 3.1 Note: Vacancy rates are calculated by taking the total number of job vacancies and divid- Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports & Media 101 1.5 2.7 ing by the total number employed in the occupation. An asterisk (*) indicates there were vacancies in the occupation that were suppressed due to disclosure issues. Community & Social Services 202 3.0 2.7 Life, Physical, & Social Services 21 0.3 0.8 Installation, Maintenance & Repair 84 1.3 0.8 Protective Service 99 1.5 1.5 Construction & Extraction 42 0.6 0.6
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 40 www.bostonfed.org/neppc Job Vacancies and Vacancy Rates by Major Occupation in Massachusetts (Q4 2010)
As in Pioneer Valley, the largest number of job vacancies and high- Share of Job Vacancy est vacancy rate in Massachusetts are in Sales occupations, and Number of Vacancy Rate Vacancies (Percent) (Percent) at the end of 2010, over 40 percent of vacancies were concen- Total 78,589 100.0 2.8 trated in the same three occupations in both the region and the Sales 16,584 21.1 5.2 state. However, Massachusetts had a lower vacancy rate and share Office & Administrative Support 8,650 11.0 1.6 of vacancies coming from Sales occupations, relative to Pioneer Food Preparation & Serving Related 8,195 10.4 3.1 Valley. The state also had much smaller shares of vacancies and Business & Financial Operations 6,079 7.7 3.6 lower vacancy rates in Health Support, Production, and Build- Healthcare Practitioner & Technical 5,249 6.7 2.3 ing, Grounds Cleaning, & Maintenance occupations compared Computer & Mathematical 4,950 6.3 4.0 with Pioneer Valley. However, Massachusetts tends to have higher Management 4,595 5.8 2.5 concentration of vacancies in Office & Administrative Support, Healthcare Support 3,634 4.6 3.8 Management, and Computer & Mathematical occupations. Transportation & Material Moving 3,214 4.1 2.1
Source: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development Job Education, Training & Library 2,895 3.7 1.3 Vacancy Survey. Personal Care & Service 2,055 2.6 2.4 Production 1,774 2.3 1.1 Architecture & Engineering 1,734 2.2 2.3 Building, Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance 1,555 2.0 1.5 Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports & Media 1,421 1.8 2.7 Community & Social Services 1,411 1.8 2.2 Life, Physical, & Social Services 1,398 1.8 2.6 Installation, Maintenance & Repair 1,160 1.5 1.2 Protective Service 1,124 1.4 1.5 Construction & Extraction 583 0.7 0.6 Legal 244 0.3 1.0
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 41 Comparing Vacancy Rates and Educational Attainment: Peak Labor Market
Before the Great Recession, there was a correlation between edu- cational attainment and job vacancies in Massachusetts. That is, 7 Pioneer Valley occupations with workers who had higher levels of educational Massachusetts attainment had higher vacancy rates. This was not surprising, as 6 Linear (Pioneer Valley) jobs in occupations that have larger shares of employees with a Linear (Massachusetts )
High School Degree or less can sometimes be filled by number of 5 individuals with little training, and can be done at lower costs to employers. In contrast, jobs in highly specialized occupations that 4 require specific educational requirements faced competition both regionally and globally for the limited number of individuals who can fill such positions. Further, strong growth in industries that 3 employ large shares of individuals with high levels of educational Occupational Vacancy Rate attainment, such as Health Care & Social Assistance and Profes- 2 sional & Technical Services, can lead to increased vacancies and demand for employees that can fill such positions. But the correla- 1 tion between educational attainment and job vacancies was fairly weak in Pioneer Valley even during the peak labor market; this was due to occupations tending to having low shares of employees 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 with post-secondary education in the region, as well as the region’s Share of Employees with Post-Secondary Education by Major Occupation stronger employment concentrations in certain sectors with lower educational attainment, such as Manufacturing and Trade, Trans- portation, & Utilities.
Source: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development Job Vacancy Survey and US Census Bureau 2005–2007 American Community Survey.
Note: Occupational vacancy rates for Pioneer Valley in Q4 2007 proxy vacancy rates in a peak labor market, and educational attainment data by occupation in Pioneer Valley from the 2005–2007 American Community Survey proxy share of employees with a post-secondary education in a peak labor market. Workers have attained a post-secondary education if they have attended Some College or obtained an Associate’s Degree, Bach- 42 elor’s Degree, or Master’s Degree or higher. Comparing Vacancy Rates and Educational Attainment: Recovering Labor Market
During the Great Recession, the relationship between vacancy 7 rates and educational attainment weakened somewhat statewide Pioneer Valley and actually reversed in Pioneer Valley. This reversal of this re- Massachusetts lationship in the Pioneer Valley is likely driven by three factors: 6 Linear (Pioneer Valley) (1) the lower educational attainment levels of employees in the Linear (Massachusetts) region relative to Massachusetts, (2) the region’s lower vacancy 5 rates in occupations with predominantly higher levels of educa- tion, such as Management and Computer & Mathematical oc- 4 cupations, and higher vacancy rates in occupations that typically require less education, such as Healthcare Support and Produc- tion, and (3) the region’s stronger growth (relative to Massachu- 3 setts) in a number of industries with larger shares of employees Occupational Vacancy Rate that have lower levels of educational attainment, such Whole- 2 sale Trade and Construction, resulting in increased demand and more vacancies in such occupations. 1
Source: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development Job Vacancy Survey and US Census Bureau 2008–2010 American Community Survey. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Note: Occupational vacancy rates for Pioneer Valley in Q4 2010 proxy vacancy rates in a recovering labor market, and educational attainment data by occupation in Pioneer Valley Share of Employees with Post-Secondary Education by Major Occupation from the 2008–2010 American Community Survey proxy share of employees with a post- secondary education in a recovering labor market.
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 43 Growth in Potential Supply ofEducated Workers: Full-Time Enrollment trends in the Past Decade
Between 2000 and 2010, the number of full-time students en- regional growth in full-time enrollment at less-than-two-year in- rolled at less-than-two-, two-, and four-year institutions increased stitutions exceeded the national trend but trailed Massachusetts in Pioneer Valley, Massachusetts, and the United States. Enroll- over the past decade, with enrollment solely concentrated in pri- ment growth in two- and four-year institutions in Pioneer Valley vate institutions. trailed that of both Massachusetts and the United States. Two-year Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post Secondary Education institutional enrollment trailed due to slower growth in public en- Data System. rollment in Pioneer Valley, which accounted for the entire enroll- Note: Enrollment data are from the fall semester of the academic year. For example, 2010 ment in this category in 2010. Enrollment at four-year institu- enrollment is from the fall of 2009 of the 2009–2010 academic year. Enrollment data are tions grew more slowly mainly due to the weak enrollment growth provided by the type of institution. Students can earn different types of degrees within an institution. For example, the enrollment at a community college would be categorized at the region’s public institutions (1.2 percent), which was half as being in a two-year institution for all students enrolled that year. However, students at the rate experienced both statewide and nationally. In contrast, community colleges complete different type of programs, such as Certificates and Associ- ate’s Degrees.
Less-than-Two-Year Institutions Two-Year Institutions Four-Year Institutions Pioneer Pioneer Pioneer Valley MA US Valley MA US Valley MA US Enrollment 2000 0 382 43,504 6,321 31,002 2,008,336 21,205 58,489 3,733,341 Enrollment 2010 0 316 42,117 7,970 44,278 2,922,622 23,858 73,940 4,904,272 Absolute Change 0 -66 –1,387 1,649 13,276 914,286 2,653 15,451 1,170,931 Annual Growth Rate (Percent) NA –1.9 –0.3 2.3 3.6 3.8 1.2 2.4 2.8 Enrollment 2000 514 3,427 138,260 227 5,796 259,071 13,915 125,640 1,863,471 Enrollment 2010 1,072 9,609 277,341 0 5,457 457,134 17,244 153,139 3,000,813 Absolute Change 558 6,182 139,081 –227 –339 198,063 3,329 27,499 1,137,342 Annual Growth Rate (Percent) 7.6 10.9 7.2 –100.0 –0.6 5.8 2.2 2.0 4.9 Private Public Enrollment 2000 514 3,809 181,764 6,548 36,798 2,267,407 35,120 184,129 5,596,812 Enrollment 2010 1,072 9,925 319,458 7,970 49,735 3,379,756 41,102 227,079 7,905,085
Total Absolute Change 558 6,116 137,694 1,422 12,937 1,112,349 5,982 42,950 2,308,273 Annual Growth Rate (Percent) 7.6 10.1 5.8 2.0 3.1 4.1 1.6 2.1 3.5
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 44 www.bostonfed.org/neppc Number of Full-Time Enrollees by Type of Degree Granting Institution in PIONEER VALLEY (2000–2010)
Four-year institutions continued to account for most of the full- time enrollment in higher education institutions in Pioneer Valley, 56,000 but their share fell slightly over the past decade, from 83.3 percent Less-Than-Two-Year Institutions in 2000 to 82.0 percent in 2010. While full-time enrollment at Two-Year Institutions 48,000 Four-Year Institutions four-year institutions grew at a fairly consistent pace in the past decade, there were sharp increases in enrollment at two-year and less-than-two-year institutions in recent years. Between 2000 40,000 and 2008, the annual rate of growth in full-time enrollment at two-year institutions grew at a fairly moderate pace (0.7 percent) 32,000 before growing at an annual rate of 7.2 percent between 2008 and 2010. Enrollment at less-than-two-year institutions was more 24,000 volatile over the course of the decade, growing from slightly over 500 full-time enrollees in 2000 to 986 in 2005, then dropping to 563 in 2008. From 2008 to 2010, however, full-time enrollment 16,000 at such institutions nearly doubled to reach 1,072 in 2010. Number of Part-Time Enrollees
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post Secondary Education 8,000 Data System.
Note: In the above stacked-area chart, the different areas represent the number of 0 enrollees by institution type. For example, enrollment at less-than-two-year institutions 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 was nearly 1,100 in 2010, compared with more than 41,100 at four-year institutions that year. All three areas combined represent the total number of enrollees in post-secondary educational institutions in Pioneer Valley, of which there were more than 50,100 in 2010. The areas are stacked in order of size in 2010, with enrollment at four-year institutions, the largest enrollment group, on the bottom and enrollment at less-than-two-year institu- tions, the smallest group, at the top.
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 45 Growth in Potential Supply of Educated Workers: Part-Time Enrollment trends in the Past Decade
The majority of part-time enrollees at post-secondary educational private less-than-two-year institutions grew at a robust annual rate institutions are in public two-year institutions. In Pioneer Valley, (21.0 percent) between 2000 and 2010, far exceeding both state part-time enrollment at public two-year institutions increased at a and national enrollment patterns. sluggish annual rate of 1.0 percent between 2000 and 2010. The Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post Secondary Education region’s enrollment growth lagged behind the rates in Massachu- Data System. setts and the United States. Part-time enrollment in both public and private four-year institutions in Pioneer Valley and the state declined over the past decade while growing nationwide. In com- parison, the small number of part-time enrollees at the region’s
Less-than-Two-Year Institutions Two-Year Institutions Four-Year Institutions Pioneer Pioneer Pioneer Valley MA US Valley MA US Valley MA US Enrollment 2000 0 25 31,407 8,046 48,506 3,509,639 2,449 22,160 1,045,388 Enrollment 2010 0 65 27,264 8,831 58,043 4,247,674 2,058 16,120 1,380,877 Absolute Change 0 40 –4,143 785 9,537 738,035 –391 –6,040 335,489 Annual Growth Rate (Percent) NA 10.0 –1.4 0.9 1.8 1.9 –1.7 –3.1 2.8 Enrollment 2000 60 1,522 31,827 0 3,536 66,870 2,746 27,425 476,690 Enrollment 2010 404 2,633 44,382 0 1,554 61,006 1,433 19,155 775,694 Absolute Change 344 1,111 12,555 0 –1,982 –5,864 –1,313 –8,270 299,004 Annual Growth Rate (Percent) 21.0 5.6 3.4 NA –7.9 –0.9 –6.3 –3.5 5.0 Private Public Enrollment 2000 60 1,547 63,234 8,046 52,042 3,576,509 5,195 49,585 1,522,078 Enrollment 2010 404 2,698 71,646 8,831 59,597 4,308,680 3,491 35,275 2,156,571
Total Absolute Change 344 1,151 8,412 785 7,555 732,171 –1,704 –14,310 634,493 Annual Growth Rate (Percent) 21.0 5.7 1.3 0.9 1.4 1.9 –3.9 –3.3 3.5
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 46 www.bostonfed.org/neppc Number of Part-Time Enrollees by Type of Degree Granting Institution in PIONEER VALLEY (2000–2010)
Part-time enrollment at two-year institutions in Pioneer Valley increased over the course of the past decade, with recent growth 16,000 driving this trend. Between 2000 and 2006, part-time enrollment Less-Than-Two-Year Institutions Two-Year Institutions at two-year institutions actually declined at an annual rate of 0.9 14,000 Four-Year Institutions percent. But between 2006 and 2010, part-time enrollment in- creased at an annual rate of 3.9 percent. In comparison, part-time 12,000 enrollment at four-year institutions experienced an even steeper decline between 2000 and 2006 (-6.1 percent), before declining at 10,000 a more modest annual rate of 0.6 percent between 2006 and 2010.
The small number of part-time enrollees at less-than-two-year in- 8,000 stitutions increased at an annual rate of 8.5 percent between 2000 and 2008 to 115 enrollees and then nearly quadrupled to 404 6,000 enrollees at the end of the decade.
Number of Part−Time Enrollees 4,000 Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post Secondary Education Data System. 2,000
0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 47 Graduation Rates by Type of Degree (2009)
Enrollment figures indicate a potential supply of post-secondary 100 educated labor, but the actual supply depends on how many stu- Total dents complete their programs and earn a degree or a Certificate. 90 Public Private In 2009, the graduation rate for first-time full-time students at 80 four-year institutions in the Pioneer Valley region (e.g., those who earned a Bachelor’s Degree within six years) was 67.2 percent. This 70 was slightly lower than the statewide rate but above the national 60 rate. The six-year Bachelor’s Degree graduation rate at public in- 50 stitutions (64.4 percent) was lower than those at private institu- 40 tions in the region but higher than at public institutions in Mas- Graduation Rate
sachusetts and the United States. The three-year Associate’s Degree 30 graduation rate (21.7 percent) was also fairly similar to the state- 20 wide rate but trailed that in the United States. The Certificate pro- gram graduation rate in Pioneer Valley (63.7 percent) was the only 10
category in which the region trailed both statewide and national 0 rates. Because there are no graduates from public institutions, the y y y region’s graduation rate for Certificates is based on private institu- United States United States United States tions. According to statewide data, private institutions granting Pioneer ValleMassachusetts Pioneer ValleMassachusetts Pioneer ValleMassachusetts Certificates tend to have slightly lower graduation rates than their Certificate Programs Associate’s Degrees Bachelor’s Degrees public counterparts.
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post Secondary Education Data System.
Note: Graduation rates reflect the number of first-time full-time students who completed their degree/program within 150 percent of the time expected to complete the degree/ program as a share of the number of first-time full-time students that started the degree/ program (e.g., a Bachelor’s Degree is considered to have been earned on time if it is completed within six years or less, or 150 percent of four years). Comparisons of gradua- tion rates to enrollees or degree completions can be misleading as the first-time full-time students are a small subset of the student population, particularly for certain degrees/pro- grams. Graduation rates do not include part-time students and are excluded when there 48 is an inadequate sample size of first-time full-time entrants for the degree/program to calculate a graduation rate. See the on-line Methodological Appendix for further details. Crossing the Finish Line: Trends in Degree Completions over the Past Decade (2000–2010)
Total annual completions show the number of people who have (1.8 percent) institutions. The slowest growth was in the number earned a degree or Certificate in a given year. From 2000 to 2010, of students completing Associate’s Degrees; that number increased the number of people earning Certificates, Associate’s Degrees, by just 1.2 percent annually at public institutions and declined by and Bachelor’s Degrees granted by institutions in Pioneer Valley, 1.0 percent at private institutions between 2000 and 2010. Massachusetts, and the United States grew. However, the region Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post Secondary Education trailed both state and national growth in the completions of all Data System. programs and degrees over the course of the decade. The strongest Note: Degree completions are for those students who completed degrees at institutions annual growth (4.0 percent) came from the number of students within the defined geography. The students may not actually live in the region. Comple- earning Certificates, with increases at both public and private in- tion totals are based on degrees completed in an academic year. For example, 2010 stitutions. There were also increases in the numbers of students completions represent degrees completed in the 2009–2010 academic year. earning Bachelor’s Degrees at both public (2.0 percent) and private
Certificates Associate's Degrees Bachelor's Degrees Pioneer Pioneer Pioneer Valley MA US Valley MA US Valley MA US Completions 2000 369 2,273 298,282 1,788 7,487 471,339 4,878 12,718 811,076 Completions 2010 609 3,618 460,865 2,007 9,831 670,395 5,933 16,251 1,049,058 Absolute Change 240 1,345 162,583 219 2,344 199,056 1,055 3,533 237,982 Annual Growth Rate (Percent) 5.1 4.8 4.4 1.2 2.8 3.6 2.0 2.5 2.6 Completions 2000 640 5,221 258,503 83 3,812 135,604 3,759 29,658 431,412 Completions 2010 890 8,195 430,685 75 4,366 249,258 4,475 35,972 603,141 Absolute Change 250 2,974 172,182 -8 554 113,654 716 6,314 171,729
Private Public Annual Growth Rate (Percent) 3.4 4.6 5.2 –1.0 1.4 6.3 1.8 1.9 3.4 Completions 2000 1,009 7,494 556,785 1,871 11,299 606,943 8,637 42,376 1,242,488 Completions 2010 1,499 11,813 891,550 2,082 14,197 919,653 10,408 52,223 1,652,199 Total Absolute Change 490 4,319 334,765 211 2,898 312,710 1,771 9,847 409,711 Annual Growth Rate (Percent) 4.0 4.7 4.8 1.1 2.3 4.2 1.9 2.1 2.9
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 49 Educational Institutions Awarding the Most Degrees in PIONEER VALLEY (2010)
Public institutions play a large role in postsecondary educational Share of attainment in Pioneer Valley, although the share they account for Degree Type Public or Degrees Completed varies by degree type. Holyoke and Springfield Technical Com- Institution Type Private Awarded in Region munity Colleges together accounted for more than one-quarter of Branford Hall < Two Years Private 530 35.4 the Certificates completed in 2010. However, nearly 60 percent of Career Institute Certificates were awarded by the region’s private institutions, led Springfield Technical Two Year Public 204 13.6 Community College by the Branford Hall Career Institute (35.4 percent). In compari- Holyoke Community College Two Year Public 189 12.6 son, the region’s three community colleges—Holyoke, Springfield Holyoke Community College Two Year Public 906 43.5 Technical, and Greenfield—accounted for nearly all of the Associ- Springfield Technical Two Year Public 780 37.5 ate’s Degrees completed in the region in 2010 (92.9 percent). The Community College region’s two public colleges, University of Massachusetts–Amherst Greenfield Community College Two Year Public 249 12.0 and Westfield State University, also accounted for a majority (57.0 University of Massachusetts - Four Year Public 4,851 46.6 Amherst percent) of Bachelor’s Degree completions in Pioneer Valley that Westfield State University Four Year Public 1,082 10.4
year. However, the region’s private institutions also played a con- Certificates Associate’s Bachelor’s Springfield College Four Year Private 999 9.6 siderable role in granting Bachelor’s Degrees. Led by Springfield College (9.6 percent), the nine private institutions in Pioneer Val- ley accounted for 43.0 percent of Bachelor’s Degree completions in 2010.
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post Secondary Education Data System.
Note: See the on-line Data Appendix for a full list of degree completions by institution.
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 50 www.bostonfed.org/neppc Number of Degree Completions by Degree Type: PIONEER VALLEY (2000–2010)
Adding up Bachelor’s and Associate’s Degrees and Certificates, the total number of postsecondary degrees granted by institutions in 16,000 Pioneer Valley grew at an annual rate of 2.0 percent between 2000 Certificates and 2010. Such growth was slower than in Massachusetts (2.5 Associate’s 14,000 percent) and the United States (3.7 percent), both of which expe- Bachelor’s rienced particularly strong growth in Associate’s Degrees. While 12,000 growth in the three post-secondary educational attainment cat- egories was fairly stable in the region over the course of the decade, 10,000 all three experienced mid-decade lulls in 2006 and 2007. Between 2000 and 2005, completions grew at annual rates ranging from 8,000 1.4 percent for Associate’s Degree to 7.6 percent for Certificates. However, in 2006 and 2007 the number of degree completions in 6,000 Pioneer Valley for all categories declined before picking up at the end of the decade. As such completions of all degrees experienced their strongest annual increases of the decade between 2007 and 4,000 Number of Degrees Completed 2010; increasing 12.1 percent for Certificates, 4.5 percent for As- sociate’s Degrees, and 3.5 percent for Bachelor’s Degrees. 2,000
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post Secondary Education 0 Data System. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 51 Certificates Awarded by Major Field of Study (2000–2010)
In Pioneer Valley, the increase in the number of Certificates Appliance Installation & Repair, Welding Technology, and Con- granted between 2000 and 2010 mostly came from the two larg- struction Equipment Operations. The other major field of study est fields of study: Health Sciences and Services. The number of to see a large increase in Certificate completions in Pioneer Valley Health Sciences Certificates increased by two-thirds, and this was Arts, Humanities, & Social Sciences, with the number of pro- field’s share increased from 34.3 percent to 38.6 percent of all the gram completions more than doubling between 2000 and 2010. region’s Certificates. But this increase trailed the numbers state- As such, the Certificates in the field accounted for 16.5 percent of wide, where the number of Health Sciences Certificates more than total Certificates completed in 2010, more than four times larger doubled and accounted for almost 50 percent of Certificates in than their share statewide; this was due to a large number of de- 2010. Services Certificates also increased by two-thirds in Pioneer grees in the Arts, such as Photography. Valley and accounted for 31.4 percent of the region’s Certificates Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post Secondary Education in 2010. Services Certificates include a large range of specializa- Data System. tions, including Cosmetology, Law Enforcement, Construction Note: For major fields of study by degree type for the United States, see the on-line Data Trades, Sports & Fitness Studies, Library Sciences, Social Work, Appendix.
Pioneer Valley Massachusetts 2000 2010 2000 2010 Major’s Major’s Major’s Major’s Certificates Share of Total Certificates Share of Total Certificates Share of Total Certificates Share of Total Major Field of Study Completed (Percent) Completed (Percent) Completed (Percent) Completed (Percent) Health Sciences 346 34.3 578 38.6 2,080 27.8 5,638 47.7 Services 281 27.8 471 31.4 2,479 33.1 3,984 33.7 Engineering & Computer Sciences 136 13.5 115 7.7 1,013 13.5 752 6.4 Business 113 11.2 25 1.7 709 9.5 513 4.3 Arts, Humanities, & Social Sciences 106 10.5 247 16.5 271 3.6 424 3.6 Legal 23 2.3 17 1.1 132 1.8 189 1.6 Education 4 0.4 1 0.1 129 1.7 87 0.7 Science & Mathematics 0 0.0 23 1.5 248 3.3 80 0.7 Other 0 0.0 22 1.5 81 1.1 146 1.2 Total 1,009 100.0 1,499 100.0 7,494 100.0 11,813 100.0
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 52 www.bostonfed.org/neppc Annual Completions by Top Five Certificate Majors in 1,500 PIONEER VALLEY (2000–2010)
1,200 The number and type of Certificates awarded by Pioneer Valley institutions fluctuated considerably from year to year. For ex- ample, from 2000 to 2010, Health Sciences Certificates in the region grew at an annual rate of 5.3 percent. However, the num- 900 ber of degrees actually peaked in the middle of the decade, with Health Sciences certificates growing at an annual rate of 19.0 per- cent between 2000 and 2005. Certificates in this field of study then declined in 2006 and 2007 before growing modestly through 600 the end of decade. The consistently large share of certificates in Health Sciences may reflect an increasing demand for employees Number of Degrees Completed with such education and training from growing industries such 300 as Health Care & Social Assistance. In comparison, the declining completions of Certificates in fields, such as Business, may reflect a demand for higher levels of educational attainment in such fields. 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post Secondary Education Data System.
Business
Engineering & Computer Sciences Arts, Humanities, & Social Sciences
Services
Health Sciences
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 53 Associate’s Degrees Awarded by Major Field of Study (2000–2010)
A majority of the growth in Associate’s Degrees granted by in- Social Sciences, as well as in Health Sciences and in Services. In stitutions in Pioneer Valley came from the increase in the Arts, addition, there were statewide gains in students earning degrees Humanities, & Social Sciences field. Between 2000 and 2010, the in a number of other major fields, with declines only in students number of Arts, Humanities, & Social Sciences degrees grew at earning Engineering & Computer Sciences and Legal degrees. annual rate of 2.3 percent and accounted for the largest share of With broad-based growth in more fields of study, the growth in Associate’s Degrees (39.2 percent) awarded in the region in 2010. students earning Associate’s Degrees in Massachusetts surpassed The region also had modest gains in students earning degrees in the growth in Pioneer Valley over the course of the decade. Health Sciences, Services, and Business, but there were declines in Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post Secondary Education the number of students earning degrees in every other major field Data System. of study over the course of the decade. Massachusetts also had strong growth in students earning degrees in Arts, Humanities, &
Pioneer Valley Massachusetts 2000 2010 2000 2010 Major’s Major’s Major’s Major’s Associate's Share of Total Associate’s Share of Total Associate’s Share of Total Associate’s Share of Total Major Field of Study Completed (Percent) Completed (Percent) Completed (Percent) Completed (Percent) Arts, Humanities, & Social Sciences 649 34.7 816 39.2 3,130 27.7 3,833 27.0 Health Sciences 305 16.3 349 16.8 2,302 20.4 3,559 25.1 Services 171 9.1 213 10.2 1,216 10.8 2,389 16.8 Business 298 15.9 349 16.8 2,198 19.5 2,250 15.8 Engineering & Computer Sciences 256 13.7 205 9.8 1,561 13.8 1,162 8.2 Education 43 2.3 27 1.3 293 2.6 442 3.1 Science & Mathematics 104 5.6 89 4.3 231 2.0 260 1.8 Legal 10 0.5 8 0.4 189 1.7 117 0.8 Other 35 1.9 26 1.2 179 1.6 185 1.3 Total 1,871 100.0 2,082 100.0 11,299 100.0 14,197 100.0
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 54 www.bostonfed.org/neppc Annual Completions by Top Five Associate’s Degree Majors 2,000 in PIONEER VALLEY (2000–2010)
1,600 In Pioneer Valley, the number and share of students earning As- sociate’s Degrees in the largest majors was fairly consistent over the course of the decade, with only modest increases in the four largest majors. The number of completions in Arts, Humanities, & Social 1,200 Sciences, Health Sciences, and Business increased at a more rapid pace in the first half of the decade before leveling off in the second half, with only slightly more degrees being completed in those majors in 2010 than in 2005. In comparison, students earning 800 Services degrees declined at an annual rate of 1.7 percent between 2000 and 2005, before increasing at annual rate of 6.3 percent Number of Degrees Completed between 2005 and 2010. As a result, Services majors accounted for 400 a majority of the growth in Associate’s Degrees completed in Pio- neer Valley in the second half of the decade. On the other hand, the number of students earning Engineering & Computer Sci- ences degrees consistently declined on an annual basis throughout 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 the decade, dropping from the fourth largest major in 2000 to fifth largest in 2010. Engineering & Computer Sciences Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post Secondary Education Services Data System. Business
Health Sciences Arts, Humanities, & Social Sciences
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 55 Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded by Major Field of Study (2000–2010)
While Pioneer Valley and Massachusetts have similarly high con- ing degrees in nearly every major field of study over the course of centrations of Bachelor’s Degrees in Arts, Humanities, & Social the decade, with the exception of Education. Among the growing Services, they differ in a number of other majors. In particular, the fields of study, the annual rate of growth in degree completions be- region had a much higher concentration in Services degrees (12.1 tween 2000 and 2010 in Pioneer Valley ranged from 0.9 percent percent) than did Massachusetts (6.1 percent) in 2010. In the Sci- in Services to 3.4 percent in Science & Mathematics. ence, Engineering, Technology, and Mathematics (STEM) fields, Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post Secondary Education Pioneer Valley is more concentrated in Science & Mathematics Data System. than in Engineering & Computer Sciences, while Massachusetts has more equal shares in these two categories. Despite this differ- ence, both the region and state saw increases in students complet-
Pioneer Valley Massachusetts 2000 2010 2000 2010 Major’s Major’s Major’s Major’s Bachelor's Share of Total Bachelor’s Share of Total Bachelor’s Share of Total Bachelor’s Share of Total Major Field of Study Completed (Percent) Completed (Percent) Completed (Percent) Completed (Percent) Arts, Humanities, & Social Sciences 3,698 42.8 4,402 42.3 18,891 44.6 23,405 44.8 Business 1,182 13.7 1,491 14.3 7,596 17.9 9,990 19.1 Science & Mathematics 954 11.0 1,327 12.7 3,818 9.0 5,054 9.7 Engineering & Computer Sciences 400 4.6 478 4.6 3,726 8.8 3,997 7.7 Health Sciences 518 6.0 596 5.7 2,938 6.9 3,589 6.9 Services 1,146 13.3 1,258 12.1 2,495 5.9 3,170 6.1 Education 337 3.9 286 2.7 1,922 4.5 1,362 2.6 Legal 104 1.2 142 1.4 176 0.4 190 0.4 Other 298 3.5 428 4.1 797 1.9 1,466 2.8 Total 8,637 100.0 10,408 100.0 42,376 100.0 52,223 100.0
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 56 www.bostonfed.org/neppc Annual Completions by Top Five Bachelor’s Degree Majors 10,000 in PIONEER VALLEY (2000–2010) 9,000
8,000 While the growth of Bachelor’s Degrees completions in Pioneer Valley has been fairly consistent over the past decade, growth in 7,000 the region’s largest majors has varied over the years. The share of students completing Bachelor’s Degree in Arts, Humanities, & 6,000 Social Sciences increased at a more rapid pace in the first half of the decade (3.5 percent annually) before leveling off in the second 5,000 half, yielding only slightly more degrees completed in this field in 2010 than in 2005. The share of students earning Services de- 4,000 grees grew between 2000 and 2005 (4.1 percent annually), but the 3,000 number declined through the end of the decade (02.2 percent an- Number of Degrees Completed nually). Conversely, Health Sciences degree completions declined 2,000 through the first half of the decade (–4.9 percent annually) but grew at a robust 8.1 percent annually between 2005 and 2010. 1,000 The share of students earning Business and Science & Mathemat- ics degrees were virtually unchanged in the first half of the decade, 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 but grew at robust annual rates of 5.7 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively, between 2005 and 2010. Health Sciences
Services Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post Secondary Education Data System. Science & Mathematics
Business
Arts, Humanities, & Social Sciences
Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 57