Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region November 2012 A joint project of the Commonwealth Corporation and New England Public Policy Center of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston NEW ENGLAND PUBLIC POLICY CENTER at COMMONWEALTH CORPORATION THE FEDERAL REServe BANK OF BOSton The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston has a decades-long tradi- Commonwealth Corporation strengthens the skills of Massachu- tion of supporting the New England public policy community. setts youth and adults by investing in innovative partnerships In 2005, the Bank established the New England Public Policy with industry, education, and workforce organizations. We seek Center to reinvigorate and institutionalize that support. to meet the immediate and emerging needs of businesses and workers so they can thrive in our dynamic economy. The Center promotes better public policy in New England by conducting and disseminating objective, high-quality research Through its work, Commonwealth Corporation is known for and analysis of strategically identified regional economic and its expertise in: meeting the needs of workers and businesses; policy issues and, when appropriate, works with regional and developing nationally recognized and innovative programming; Bank partners to advance identified policy options. creating multiple education and employment pathways for teens and young adults to succeed; and building the Commonwealth’s The Center’s research investigates policy issues that are important workforce development capacity. to New England’s economy, focusing in two primary areas: demographic and labor markets trends and state and local public Commonwealth Corporation is a quasi-public organization with- finance. For more information about the Center, visit our website, in the Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development. www.bostonfed.org/neppc. For more information about Commonwealth Corporation, visit our website, www.commcorp.org. This profile was developed by Robert Clifford, a policy analyst at the New England Public Policy Center. TABLE OF CONTENTS OVERVIEW SECTION ll: Measuring Labor Demand—Employment Trends of Jobs and Workers in Pioneer Valley 3 Executive Summary 21 Employment Trends 5 Geography of the Regional Labor Markets 22 Demographic Characteristics of the Population Employed 6 Pioneer Valley Region in Pioneer Valley 7 Employment Trends and Recessions 23 Distribution of Employment by Supersector (Q4 2010) SECTION l: Measuring Labor Supply—Demographic 24 Changes in Employment During the Economic Downturn Trends of Residents Who Live in Pioneer Valley by Major Industry: Pioneer Valley 8 Population Growth Trends 25 Changes in Employment During the Economic Downturn 9 Demographic Characteristics of the Resident by Major Industry: Massachusetts Population of Pioneer Valley 26 Industries Driving the Recovery: Pioneer Valley 10 Growth in the Working-Age Population by Nativity Status 27 Industries Driving the Recovery: Massachusetts 11 Growth in the Civilian Labor Force by Nativity Status 28 Educational Attainment of Employees by Major Industry in 12 The Age Profile of the Working-Age Population Pioneer Valley (2008–2010) 13 The Age Profile of the Civilian Labor Force 29 Educational Attainment of Employees by Major Industry in Massachusetts (2008–2010) 14 Educational Attainment of the Working-Age Population 30 Employment by Major Occupation: Pioneer Valley (2008–2010) 15 Educational Attainment of the Civilian Labor Force 31 Employment by Major Occupation: Massachusetts (2008–2010) 16 Educational Attainment by Age Group, Pioneer Valley, 2008–2010 32 Distribution of Occupations Across Supersectors Outside Greater Boston (2008–2010) 17 Unemployment Rate Trends 34 Distribution of Occupations Within Supersectors Outside Greater 18 The Unemployed: Age Distribution (2000 and 2008–2010) Boston (2008–2010) 19 The Unemployed: Educational Attainment (2000 and 36 Educational Attainment of Employees by Major Occupation in 2008–2010) Pioneer Valley (2000) 20 Commuting Patterns of Residents and Workers: Pioneer Valley (2008–2010) TABLE OF CONTENTS 37 Educational Attainment of Employees by Major Occupation 48 Graduation Rates by Type of Degree (2009) in Pioneer Valley (2008–2010) 49 Crossing the Finish Line: Trends in Degree Completions Over 38 Educational Attainment of Employees by Major Occupation the Past Decade (2000–2010) in Massachusetts (2008–2010) 50 Educational Institutions Awarding the Most Degrees in Pioneer 39 Job Vacancies in the Great Recession and Recovery Valley (2010) 40 Job Vacancies and Vacancy Rates by Major Occupation 51 Number of Degree Completions by Degree Type: Pioneer Valley in Pioneer Valley (Q4 2010) (2000–2010) 41 Job Vacancies and Vacancy Rates by Major Occupation 52 Certificates Awarded by Major Field of Study in Massachusetts (Q4 2010) (2000–2010) 42 Comparing Vacancy Rates and Educational Attainment: 53 Annual Completions by Top Five Certificate Majors in Pioneer Peak Labor Market Valley (2000–2010) 43 Comparing Vacancy Rates and Educational Attainment: 54 Associate’s Degrees Awarded by Major Field of Study Recovering Labor Market (2000–2010) SECTION lll: Measuring the Pipeline—Educational Supply 55 Annual Completions by Top Five Associate’s Degree Majors from Post-Secondary Degrees Granted by Institutions in Pioneer Valley (2000–2010) Located in Pioneer Valley 56 Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded by Major Field of Study 44 Growth in Potential Supply of Educated Workers: Full-Time (2000–2010) Enrollment Trends in the Past Decade 57 Annual Completions by Top Five Bachelor’s Degree Majors 45 Number of Full-Time Enrollees by Type of Degree Granting in Pioneer Valley (2000–2010) Institution in Pioneer Valley (2000–2010) 46 Growth in Potential Supply of Educated Workers: Part-Time Enrollment Trends in the Past Decade 47 Number of Part-Time Enrollees by Type of Degree Granting Institution in Pioneer Valley (2000–2010) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Using the most recent data available, the Pio- The past decade has been challenging for the than the region’s unemployment rate at the be- neer Valley regional labor market profile pro- Pioneer Valley labor market. After two reces- ginning of the decade (3.0 percent). vides a detailed picture of the region’s current sions and a decade of declining employment, and future labor supply.1 For context, it also the region is now gaining jobs and recovering While high unemployment has impacted all provides detailed information on labor de- at a modest pace. Moreover, the recent recov- demographic groups, it has been disproportion- mand in the region over the past decade. This ery from the Great Recession has been some- ally concentrated among the young and those profile is designed to help guide workforce de- what stronger in the region than in the state with lower levels of education. For example, in velopment professionals, policy makers, and as a whole. Pioneer Valley has experienced 2008-2010 over 50 percent of the region’s unem- civic, education, and business leaders as they relatively broad-based improvement, with ployed were 34 years of age or younger, though make decisions about education and training stronger growth than the state in a majority of such individuals accounted for only 32 percent of opportunities. industries, helping to move the region ahead the region’s civilian labor force. Similarly, nearly in the first year of the recovery. 60 percent of those unemployed in Pioneer Val- The charts and analysis are divided into three ley had a High School Degree or less, while only sections: While the unemployment rate in the region was 38 percent of the region’s civilian labor force had nearly the same as the rate statewide through such an education. 1. Labor Supply: Demographic Trends of the first half of the past decade, the impact of Residents Who Live in Pioneer Valley the Great Recession was particularly severe in Massachusetts is one of the most highly edu- Pioneer Valley. The region’s unemployment rate cated states in the nation, but Pioneer Valley’s 2. Labor Demand: Employment Trends of Jobs reached 9.2 percent in 2010, slightly below the residents and workforce (which include people and Workers in Pioneer Valley national rate (9.6 percent) but far exceeding the who commute from other regions and other statewide rate (8.5 percent), making it the third states) have education levels similar to their 3. The Pipeline: Educational Supply of Post- highest rate among all regional labor markets. counterparts in the United States. Over the Secondary Degrees Granted by Institutions This was significantly higher than the region’s past decade, the region has seen progressively Located in Pioneer Valley unemployment rate following the 2001–02 re- higher levels of educational attainment among cession (5.8 percent in 2003) and much higher its residents and workforce, but a High School 1 This profile builds on the work of the 2008 regional labor market profiles completed by Paul Harrington and Neeta Fogg, formerly at Northeastern University’s Center for Labor Market Studies. This work employs their methodology and includes expanded analysis of the educational attainment of the region’s population, more detailed analysis of the distribution of oc- cupations by industry, and reviews of trends over a longer time period. Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 3 Degree continues to be the most common level ber of younger residents and workers in the sought post-secondary education over the past of educational attainment in the region. In 2008- region with the needed skills to