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Envista Holdings Corp NVST 14 October 2019 Equity Research Americas | United States Envista Holdings Corp NVST Bracing for Growth; Initiate Neutral; $30 Target Price Target price (12M, US$) 30.00 [V] Life Science Tools and Diagnostics | Initiation Neutral ■ Initiate Neutral; $30 Target Price: As a leading global manufacturer of dental, NVST is Price (11 Oct 19, US$) 27.93 levered to a seemingly stabilizing underlying dental industry backdrop, where it supports 52-week price range 29.07 - 26.59 90% of practitioners’ clinical needs. We expect earnings growth to accelerate on dedicated Market cap (US$ m) 4,431.13 innovation efforts, greater penetration in high-growth markets, and efficiency initiatives as a Enterprise value (US$ m) 5,650.91 [V] = Stock Considered Volatile (see Disclosure Appendix) more nimble standalone entity, as the recent spinoff of Danaher’s Dental segment. All in, these drivers should accelerate organic revenue growth to +low to mid-single digits over the next five years, with earnings growing at a +7% CAGR from 2019E-2023E. Research Analysts ■ Positioning for Growth via Targeted Innovation: While dental demand trends have Erin Wilson Wright been lackluster over the past few years, we view rising dental utilization stemming from 212 538 4080 favorable demographics, an emphasis on aesthetic and preventative care, along with [email protected] expanding adoption of digital dentistry should drive improving demand for dental Katie Tryhane consumables and equipment long term. For NVST, reinvigorated innovation, focused on 212 325 2713 Specialty products (i.e. N1 Implants, Spark Clear Aligners), an inherently faster growing [email protected] category (48% of sales), should spur growth, alongside efforts to fortify Dental Support Org. relationships and to expand in high-growth markets, accounting for 27% of sales by Haley Christofides 2022E (from 22% today). Diligent cost structure initiatives ($60 million in savings by 212 325 3720 [email protected] 2021E) should facilitate +286 bps of EBITDA margin expansion over the next five years. Capital deployment with potential tuck-in M&A may also supplement growth long term. Matthew Urbik ■ Valuation Reflects Investment Positives, Risks: With NVST’s shares up 32% (vs. S&P 212 325 2152 500 -1%) since its Sept. 18, 2019 IPO, its shares currently trade at 14.2x 2020E [email protected] EV/EBITDA, and we view its valuation adequately reflects aforementioned near term drivers, contributing to our Neutral view. Our $30 target price is predicated on a 14.7x 2020E EV/EBITDA multiple, a premium to Dentsply Sirona (14.0x), with line-of-sight to improving profitability near term, but a discount to its Dental Manufacturer peer group average (16.2x), as we await evidence of more meaningful contributions from new products and other internal initiatives. Upside and downside risks include fluctuations in macro conditions, dental demand, FX, and distributor stocking. Danaher’s 80% stake may also serve as an overhang. Share price performance Financial and valuation metrics Year 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E EPS (CS adj.) (US$) 2.04 1.67 1.70 1.88 Prev. EPS (US$) - - - - Revenue (US$ m) 2,844.5 2,793.9 2,835.9 2,920.1 EBITDA (US$ m) 465.5 394.8 413.8 449.5 P/OCF (x) 12.3 13.1 12.1 EV/EBITDA (current) 9.5 14.3 13.0 11.3 Net debt (US$ m) 0 1,220 942 637 On 11-Oct-2019 the S&P 500 INDEX closed at 2938.13Daily Sep18, 2019 - Oct11, 2019, 09/18/19 = US$27.95 ROIC (%) 6.68 5.65 6.03 6.68 Number of shares (m) 158.65 IC (current, US$ m) 4,826.40 Net debt (Next Qtr., US$ m) 1,271.6 Dividend (current, US$) - Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2018A 0.36 0.58 0.52 0.58 Net debt/tot eq (Next Qtr.,%) 36.6 2019E 0.30 0.47 0.40 0.50 Source: Company data, Refinitiv, Credit Suisse estimates 2020E 0.26 0.45 0.44 0.55 DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 14 October 2019 Envista Holdings Corp (NVST) Analyst: Erin Wright Price (11 Oct 2019): US$27.93 Target Price: 30.00 Rating: Neutral Income Statement 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E Company Background Revenue (US$ m) 2,844.5 2,793.9 2,835.9 2,920.1 EBITDA (US$ m) 465 395 414 449 Envista is a leading global dental manufacturer, serving more than one Depr. & amort. (39) (42) (47) (49) EBIT (US$) 423 351 367 400 million dentists across 150 countries with more than half of revenue Net interest exp -0 (6) (16) (13) derived internationally. Its comprehensive product offering supports ~90% PBT (US$) 426 347 350 387 of practitioners’ clinical needs. Income taxes (102) (82) (81) (89) Profit after tax 324 265 270 298 Minorities - - - - Blue/Grey Sky Scenario Net profit (US$) 324 265 270 298 Reported net income (US$) 324 265 270 298 Other NPAT adjustments 0 0 0 0 Adjusted net income 324 265 270 298 Cash Flow 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E EBIT 423 351 367 400 Net interest -0 (6) (16) (13) Change in working capital 26 10 2 (0) Cash flow from operations 400 361 339 367 CAPEX (72) (82) (61) (62) Free cashflow to the firm 328 279 278 305 Acquisitions 0 0 0 0 Divestments 0 0 0 0 Cash flow from investments (76) (82) (61) (62) Net share issue(/repurchase) 0 0 0 0 Dividends paid 0 0 0 0 Changes in Net Cash/Debt 0 (1,220) 278 305 Balance Sheet (US$) 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E Assets Cash & cash equivalents 0 185 463 768 Account receivables 460 444 448 454 Other current assets 48 53 53 53 Total current assets 787 952 1,238 1,552 Total fixed assets 262 298 312 325 Our Blue Sky Scenario (US$) 36.00 Investment securities - - - - Total assets 5,842 6,130 6,343 6,588 Our $36/share (17.0x 2020E EV/EBITDA) blue sky scenario is Liabilities predicated on strengthening underlying fundamental trends across the Total current liabilities 641 658 668 677 Total liabilities 1,015 2,591 2,601 2,610 dental industry, as well as better than anticipated progress on internal Shareholder equity 4,823 3,545 3,747 3,984 initiatives, including R&D efforts, commercialization of new product Total liabilities and equity 5,842 6,130 6,343 6,588 launches, and direct sales momentum. Net debt 0 1,220 942 637 Per share 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E Our Grey Sky Scenario (US$) 24.00 No. of shares (wtd avg) 159 159 159 159 CS adj. EPS 2.04 1.67 1.70 1.88 Our $24/share (12.4x 2020E EV/EBITDA) grey sky scenarios is based Prev. EPS (US$) on a continually lackluster underlying dental market environment, as well Dividend (US$) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Free cash flow per share 2.07 1.76 1.75 1.92 as slower than expected progress on internal initiatives, including R&D Earnings 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E efforts, commercialization of new product launches, and direct sales Sales growth (%) 1.2 (1.8) 1.5 3.0 progress. EBIT growth (%) (9.7) (17.0) 4.3 9.2 Net profit growth (%) 3.9 (18.2) 1.5 10.6 Share price performance EPS growth (%) (1.4) (18.2) 1.5 10.6 EBITDA margin (%) 16.4 14.1 14.6 15.4 EBIT margin (%) 14.9 12.6 12.9 13.7 Pretax margin (%) 15.0 12.4 12.3 13.3 Net margin (%) 11.4 9.5 9.5 10.2 Valuation 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E EV/Sales (x) 1.56 2.02 1.89 1.74 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.5 14.3 13.0 11.3 EV/EBIT (x) 10.5 16.1 14.7 12.7 P/E (x) 13.7 16.7 16.4 14.9 Price to book (x) 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.1 Asset turnover 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 Returns 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E ROE stated-return on (%) 6.6 6.3 7.4 7.7 ROIC (%) 6.7 5.6 6.0 6.7 On 11-Oct-2019 the S&P 500 INDEX closed at 2938.13 Gearing 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E Daily Sep18, 2019 - Oct11, 2019, 09/18/19 = US$27.95 Net debt/equity (%) 0.0 34.5 25.2 16.0 Interest coverage ratio (X) 62.7 22.3 30.8 Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2018A 0.36 0.58 0.52 0.58 2019E 0.30 0.47 0.40 0.50 2020E 0.26 0.45 0.44 0.55 Source: Company data, Refinitiv, Credit Suisse estimates Envista Holdings Corp 2 14 October 2019 Table of Contents Key Charts 4 Executive Summary 5 Envista Corporate Overview 7 Equipment & Consumables – 52% of Sales ..................................................................... 9 Specialty Products & Technologies – 48% of Sales ........................................................ 15 Investment Strengths 23 Dental Industry Dynamics: Stabilization .........................................................................
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