Speech by Governor Brainard on Private Money and Central Bank
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Econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) (Ed.) Periodical Part NBER Reporter Online, Volume 2011 NBER Reporter Online Provided in Cooperation with: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Cambridge, Mass. Suggested Citation: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) (Ed.) (2011) : NBER Reporter Online, Volume 2011, NBER Reporter Online, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Cambridge, MA This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/61994 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), -
Former Fed Chiefs Weigh In
JULY 17 2020 Former Fed chiefs weigh in Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen have hardly been quiet since they left their positions as heads of the Federal Reserve. Whether in media, articles or, recently, as part of a group of 150 economists who wrote a letter to Congress, the two have remained public figures. It has been some time since they testified before lawmakers, however. Appearing twice a year to committees in both the House and the Senate was part of the job back then; Friday marked the first required appearances for each since they left their posts. Paige Wilhelm Given Yellen and Bernanke’s support for Jerome Powell, the current Fed Senior Vice President Senior Portfolio Manager chair, it is no surprise they praised the Fed’s actions so far in the crisis or Federated Investment Counseling that they echoed his call for Congress to provide more fiscal support to the economy. The overarching message for lawmakers was do not worry about the deficit at this time—the economy needs assistance now. One thing is certain, the Fed is not worried about its own balance sheet. This week it revealed that figure now stands at more than $7 trillion. Interestingly, the special purpose vehicles it created in the height of the crisis in March are hardly being used now. These include the Primary Dealer Credit Facility and the Money Market Liquidity Facility. This is a good sign, as it means the liquidity markets are functioning well on their own. But the greater economy probably will require Congress’s assistance to do the same. -
Is the Fed Too Active?
OPINION BY KARTIK ATHREYA Is the Fed Too Active? ome observers have recently voiced concern that Fed So the goal of redressing at least some aspects of activities in the areas of climate change and inequal- economic inequality has long been a Fed concern. Indeed, Sity may put the institution at risk. In a forthcoming the Richmond Fed strives to understand the full range of Duke Law Journal article, for instance, Christina Parajon economic outcomes of Fifth District residents, including Skinner of the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School inequities, and among them, those that occur along racial argues that the Fed must avoid the temptation to engage in lines. To fail here would hinder our ability to fulfill our “central bank activism” by pushing its powers beyond the mandate under the CRA and to provide better informa- text and purpose of its legal mandate to address “imme- tion via the Beige Book and other means to guide mone - diate public policy problems” such as climate change tary policy. As Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and economic inequality. She cautions, “Activism under- has pointed out, “The regional Fed banks are charged mines the legitimacy of central bank authority, with understanding the dynamics within our erodes its political independence, and ultimately “We should districts. In pursuit of that goal, we have been renders a weaker central bank.” In a recent Wall investing in research that addresses these Street Journal op-ed, Michael Belongia of the always strive to issues and the racial inequities that result.” University of Mississippi and Peter Ireland of understand forces Lately, the connection between mone- Boston College voiced similar concerns about Fed that plausibly tary policy and economic inclusion has drawn activities in the area of income inequality. -
Cross-Border Spillovers of Balance Sheet Normalization
For release on delivery 12:30 p.m. EDT July 11, 2017 Cross-Border Spillovers of Balance Sheet Normalization Remarks by Lael Brainard Member Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System at “Normalizing Central Banks’ Balance Sheets: What Is the New Normal?” a conference sponsored by Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York New York, New York July 11, 2017 When the central banks in many advanced economies embarked on unconventional monetary policy, it raised concerns that there might be differences in the cross-border transmission of unconventional relative to conventional monetary policy.1 These concerns were sufficient to warrant a special Group of Seven (G-7) statement in 2013 establishing ground rules to address possible exchange rate effects of the changing composition of monetary policy.2 Today the world confronts similar questions in reverse. In the United States, in my assessment, normalization of the federal funds rate is now well under way, and the Federal Reserve is advancing plans to allow the balance sheet to run off at a gradual and predictable pace. And for the first time in many years, the global economy is experiencing synchronous growth, and authorities in the euro area and the United Kingdom are beginning to discuss the time when the need for monetary accommodation will diminish. Unlike in previous tightening cycles, many central banks currently have two tools for removing accommodation. They can therefore pursue alternative normalization strategies--first seeking to guide policy rates higher before initiating balance sheet runoff, as in the United States, or instead starting to shrink the balance sheet before initiating a 1 I am grateful to John Ammer, Bastian von Beschwitz, Christopher Erceg, Matteo Iacoviello, and John Roberts for their assistance in preparing this text. -
Jelena Mcwilliams-FDIC
www-scannedretina.com Jelena McWilliams-FDIC Jelena McWilliams-FDIC Voice of the American Sovereign (VOAS) The lawless Municipal Government operated by the "US CONGRESS" Washington, D.C., The smoking gun; do you get it? John Murtha – Impostor committed Treason – Time to sue his estate… Trust through Transparency - Jelena McWilliams - FDIC Chair Theft through Deception - Arnie Rosner - American sovereign, a Californian — and not a US Citizen via the fraudulent 14th Amendment. Sovereignty! TRUMP – THE AMERICAN SOVEREIGNS RULE AMERICA! All rights reserved - Without recourse - 1 of 120 - [email protected] - 714-964-4056 www-scannedretina.com Jelena McWilliams-FDIC 1.1. The FDIC responds - the bank you referenced is under the direct supervision of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. From: FDIC NoReply <[email protected]> Subject: FDIC Reply - 01003075 Date: April 29, 2019 at 6:36:46 AM PDT To: "[email protected]" <[email protected]> Reply-To: [email protected] April 29, 2019 Ref. No.: 01003075 Re: MUFG Union Bank, National Association, San Francisco, CA Dear Arnold Beryl Rosner: Thank you for your correspondence, which was received by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). The FDIC's mission is to ensure the stability of and public confidence in the nation's financial system. To achieve this goal, the FDIC has insured deposits and promoted safe and sound banking practices since 1933. We are responsible for supervising state- chartered, FDIC-insured institutions that are not members of the Federal Reserve System. Based on our review of your correspondence, the bank you referenced is under the direct supervision of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. -
Is Inflation Really Transitory?
Is Inflation Really Transitory? By Eric Grover National Review August 17, 2021 Financial-market indicators point to a persistent uptick in inflation. DESPITE a few recent hints of unease, the Fed still maintains that the current surge in inflation is “transitory.” That seems optimistic: The central bank has been stoking inflation and is stubbornly blind to the danger of getting more than it bargained for, of letting loose what Nobel Prize– winning economist Friedrich Hayek described as the “tiger.” Fed chairman Paul Volcker caged inflation after it’d crested at 13.5 percent in 1980. Since then, however, the Fed, politicians, consumers, and producers have become complacent about the risk that it might escape again. The current cocktail of money-printing, massive deficit spending, pandemic- related supply-chain disruptions, and pent-up demand coming out of COVID-19 hibernation means inflation ahead — and not just for the short term. The outlook is only made worse by the hit to the supply side that will come from increased regulation and taxes, not to speak of the boost to energy costs that will flow from the administration’s hostility to fossil fuels. The Fed’s balance sheet has ballooned from $900 billion in August 2008 to a whopping $8.2 trillion in mid July 2021. However, by paying banks interest to park excess reserves held at the Fed, the central bank has managed to keep new dollars from entering the economy in the form of credit, thereby holding down inflation. Now, printed money is showing up in consumption and price data, and the longer the “transitory” surge endures, the more difficult it will be to contain. -
The Economics of Climate Change: a First Fed Conference Galina B
FRBSF Economic Letter 2019-31 | December 16, 2019 | Research from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco The Economics of Climate Change: A First Fed Conference Galina B. Hale, Òscar Jordà, and Glenn D. Rudebusch To better understand the implications of climate change for the financial sector and the broader economy, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco recently hosted a conference on the economics of climate change to gather and debate the latest analyses from universities and policy institutions, nationally and abroad. It was the first Fed-sponsored conference devoted to investigating the economic and financial consequences and risks arising from climate change and potential policy responses. The scientific community around the world has reached a broad consensus on the ongoing climate change caused by human activities. As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2014), stated, “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and the sea level has risen” (p. 40). Scientists also attribute more frequent and extreme storms, floods, droughts, and heat waves to these adverse developments (U.S. Global Change Research Program 2018, hereafter USGCRP). This climate change will have sweeping effects on our economy and financial system (Network for Greening the Financial System 2018, hereafter NGFS; USGCRP 2018). Climate-related shifts in the physical environment can slow economic growth, increase volatility, and depreciate the value of business and household assets and property. Avoiding further climate change will involve a substantial transformation of the economy. -
Investment Insights
CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICE Investment Insights AUGUST 2017 Matthew Diczok A Focus on the Fed Head of Fixed Income Strategy An Overview of the Federal Reserve System and a Look at Potential Personnel Changes SUMMARY After years of accommodative policy, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is on its path to policy normalization. The Fed forecasts another rate hike in late 2017, and three hikes in each of the next two years. The Fed also plans to taper reinvestments of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities, gradually reducing its balance sheet. The market thinks differently. Emboldened by inflation persistently below target, it expects the Fed to move significantly more slowly, with only one to three rate hikes between now and early 2019. One way or another, this discrepancy will be reconciled, with important implications for asset prices and yields. Against this backdrop, changes in personnel at the Fed are very important, and have been underappreciated by markets. The Fed has three open board seats, and the Chair and Vice Chair are both up for reappointment in 2018. If the administration appoints a Fed Chair and Vice Chair who are not currently governors, then there will be five new, permanent voting members who determine rate moves—almost half of the 12-member committee. This would be unprecedented in the modern era. Similar to its potential influence on the Supreme Court, this administration has the ability to set the tone of monetary policy for many years into the future. Most rumored candidates share philosophical leanings at odds with the current board; they are generally hawkish relative to current policy, favor rules-based decision-making over discretionary, and are unconvinced that successive rounds of quantitative easing were beneficial. -
Transcript of Chair Powell's Press Conference -- January 29, 2020
January 29, 2020 Chair Powell’s Press Conference FINAL Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference January 29, 2020 CHAIR POWELL. Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for being here. At today’s meeting, my colleagues and I decided to leave our policy rate unchanged. As always, we base our decisions on our judgment of how best to achieve the goals Congress has given us: maximum employment and price stability. We believe monetary policy is well positioned to serve the American people by supporting continued economic growth, a strong job market, and a return of inflation to our symmetric 2 percent goal. The expansion is in its 11th year, the longest on record. Growth in household spending moderated toward the end of last year, but with a healthy job market, rising incomes, and upbeat consumer confidence, the fundamentals supporting household spending are solid. In contrast, business investment and exports remain weak, and manufacturing output has declined over the past year. Sluggish growth abroad and trade developments have been weighing on activity in these sectors. However, some of the uncertainties around trade have diminished recently, and there are some signs that global growth may be stabilizing after declining since mid-2018. Nonetheless, uncertainties about the outlook remain, including those posed by the new coronavirus. Overall, with monetary and financial conditions supportive, we expect moderate economic growth to continue. The unemployment rate has been near half-century lows for well more than a year, and the pace of job gains remains solid. Participation in the labor force by people in their prime working years, ages 25 to 54, is at its highest level in more than a decade. -
Meet the New Boss, Same As the Old Boss (Part II)
Samuel Miller CFA, CAIA Senior Analyst Deron T. McCoy CFA, CFP®, CAIA, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Meet the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss (Part II) Four years ago in our December 2013 SEIA Report titled, “The Federal Reserve: Meet the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss”, we offered reasons why analyzing the human makeup of the Board is so important (hint: they more or less set monetary policy for the world, affecting global capital markets everywhere). We opined that the new incoming Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen was very much in line with her predecessor and that her appointment was a “signal to all investors that easy monetary policy will be the policy of choice for the foreseeable future” and “short-term interest rates might be low for another three years extending through 2016.” We concluded by stating “Yellen’s policies should support ‘risk assets’ (Equities, High Yield Bonds, etc.) in the near term with her hopeful goal of higher inflation and economic overheating (not a typo) four years out which will in turn convolute her reappointment process (in 2017).” Four years have now passed and while we can claim victory on our assessment of the stock market, our view of an overheated economy came up a bit short. As such, the reappointment process caused nary a ripple in global markets as the new-new boss is the same as the old-old boss. Who is Jerome Powell? On November 2, 2017, President Trump nominated Jerome “Jay” Powell to be the next Fed chair, providing clarification for the market and lessening monetary policy uncertainty in the near and intermediate term. -
Regime Change Q2 2018 COMMENTARY
Chief Market Strategist, Dr. Quincy Krosby Prudential Financial Regime Change Q2 2018 COMMENTARY The second quarter— Highlights which statistically • Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell takes the helm is not the most • A brief history of recent regime changes at the Federal Reserve • The market enters a period of crosscurrents hospitable in terms of returns—should enjoy Q2 OPENING BELL solid growth here The term “regime change” is currently trending in the headlines, from “More expect Venezuela will collapse and have regime change within 12 months” to “Pushing back against Iran: Is it time and abroad; solid, if for regime change?” As we enter the second quarter of 2018, however, the term is increasingly not stellar, earnings; used to describe a subtle but equally important shift in economic policy. Monetary policy stands out as a significant economic catalyst, and with the departure of Federal Reserve Chair Janet the fiscal stimulus Yellen, we’ve seen headlines blare: “How to survive the regime change in markets.” beginning to filter into Referring to February’s market correction, triggered by fears that inflation was beginning to assert itself, the Financial Times succinctly stated: “Whether correction turns into regime the real economy; and change is down to the Fed.” But do members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) a Federal Reserve of the Federal Reserve view their job as protectors of stock market performance, the way they seemingly did coming out of the financial crisis? that wants to maintain Newly installed Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, greeted on his first official day with a 4 percent the “middle ground” market sell-off, appeared upbeat about prospects for the economy. -
The Fed and the Economic Outlook
The Fed and the Economic Outlook Mark L. J. Wright Research Director Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis March 28, 2018 Disclaimer The views expressed are my own and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis or the Federal Reserve System. minneapolisfed.org Today’s Talk . Overview of the Federal Reserve System and of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis . Discuss the national economy and the thinking behind recent monetary policy decisions . Compare national economy to: . State economies of Minnesota and Wisconsin . Twin Cities metro economy The Federal Reserve System The Federal Reserve System . Central bank of the U.S. Established by Act of Congress in 1913 . Two previous U.S. central banks: . First Bank of the United States (1791-1811) Promoted by Alexander Hamilton, the first Secretary of the Treasury . Second Bank of the United States (1816-1836) Ended when President Andrew Jackson vetoed reauthorization of the bank Responsibilities of the Federal Reserve System . Supervise and regulate banks . Mainly large bank holding companies . JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup . Provide financial services . Manage (‘clear’) financial payments . Help banks meet short-term demands for cash . “Lender of Last Resort” . Set monetary policy Structure of the Federal Reserve System 12 “District” banks carry out operating duties of Federal Monetary Reserve policy BOG Chair, Jerome Powell The Federal Reserve Banks Minneapolis Fed’s Ninth District The Minneapolis Fed’s job is to: • Supervise banks & offer financial services in this district • Monitor developments in this regional economy • Represent the interests of the 9th district when monetary policy is set in Washington D.C.