Climate Change, Food Security and the Right to Adequate Food

02 ANALYSIS the RighttoAdequateFood Climate Change,FoodSecurityand Climate ChangeIStudy Imprint

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Authors: Christoph Bals, Sven Harmeling, Michael Windfuhr, with contributions from Stephen O. Anyango (Department of Environmental Science, Kenyatta University, Kenya) and Victor Orindi (International Development Research Centre, Kenya), Ferdausur Rahman, Mizanur Rahman Bijoy, Nusrat Habib (alle Network on Climate Change, Bangladesch), Umme Kulsum (Climate Change Focal Point, Prodipan) Editorial Staff: Thomas Hirsch, Hannah Bent, Dr. Klaus Seitz Layout: Jörg Jenrich, Katrin Gottwald Responsible: Thomas Sandner Cover Photo: Christoph Püschner Printing:

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Stuttgart, October 2008 Climate Change, Food Security and the Right to Adequate Food

Christoph Bals (Germanwatch) Sven Harmeling (Germanwatch) Michael Windfuhr (Brot für die Welt) Contents

Tables 8

Figures 10

Abbreviations 11

Foreword 15

Executive summary 17

Introduction 21

Part I

Climate change and food insecurity

1 Climate change and food security – the development of the debate 24

1.1 General observations 24

1.2 The initial FAO debate: optimism on climate change and food security 25

1.3 From optimism to acknowledging climate change risks 26

1.4 A two-dimensional response is needed: avoiding dangerous climate change and adapting to the unavoidable 27

1.4.1 Avoiding dangerous climate change: limit global warming to below 2°C 28

1.4.2 Scenarios of different climate futures 32

1.5 Adaptation to the unavoidable consequences 34

1.6 Climate change and development 39

2 Trends and developments in food insecurity and hunger 42

2.1 Three levels of food security definition: global, national, and household food security 42

2.2 Who are the hungry today 44

2.3 Marginalization of producers: a problem of development policies 48

2.4 Trends on world agricultural markets and agricultural prices 52

2.5 Food security compared with other concepts: food sovereignty, right to food 57

2.6 Content of the right to adequate food 58

2.7 Standards of governance under the right to food 60

2.8 Climate change and vulnerabilities for food insecurity 62

2.9 International obligations in the right to food debate and under the UNFCCC 66

3 Relevant trends in climate change 70 Contents

3.1 Increasing variability 72

3.2 Extreme weather events 73

3.3 Moving of climate zones and other ecosystem impacts of climate change 77

3.4 Tipping elements – large-scale risks in the earth system 79

3.5 Effects on food production, agriculture and water, forest and fishing resources 84

3.5.1 Effects on food production and agriculture 84

3.5.2 Effects on forests 87

3.5.3 Effects on fisheries 89

3.5.4 Effects on pasture and livestock production 90

3.5.5 Effects on water resources 91

3.5.6 Effects on health and nutrition 92

3.5.7 Effects on food insecurity 94

3.6 Most affected: rural livelihoods - subsistence and smallholder agriculture 97

Part II

Response capacity to climate change – nationally and internationally

4 Response capacity in developing countries 99

4.1 Dimensions of the problem 100

4.1.1 Adaptation 100

4.1.2 Response capacity 105

4.2 Climate information and climate science 106

4.3 Climate-related insurance approaches 109

4.4 Response capacity at the national level 112

4.4.1 Financial resources needed 112

4.4.2 Assessment of adaptation policies 114

4.4.3 Adaptation measures 116

4.5 Response capacity to problems at the local and household level 118

4.6 Human rights set standards for adequate government responses 123 Contents

5 Impacts on global food security and response capacity at the international level 126

5.1 Impacts on global food security 126

5.2 Options to increase production 127

5.3 Agriculture – increasing productivity or global warming? 129

5.4 Response capacity in development cooperation 132

5.5 Response capacity in intergovernmental organisations 135

6 Climate change and poverty – economics of adaptation 138

6.1 Climate change, the MDGs and development prospects 138

6.2 Financial aspects of adaptation to climate change: assessing costs and benefits 139

6.3 Current financing for adaptation 143

6.4 Principles for adaptation financing and future instruments 147

Part III

Regional studies on climate change impacts, food security and response capacity

7 Research results for Africa 150

7.1 Effects of climate change on food production, agriculture and water availability 150

7.1.1 Changes in climatic conditions 150

7.1.2 The state of food insecurity in Africa 151

7.1.3 Effects on food production, agriculture, water, forests, fish and livestock 153

7.2 Adaptation – experiences and priorities 157

7.3 Responses and capacity 159

7.3.1 Vulnerable communities 159

7.3.2 Political and institutional capacity 162

7.4 Advocacy and policy recommendations 162

8 Research results for Asia 164

8.1 Effects of climate change on food production, agriculture and water availability 164

8.1.1 Changes in climatic conditions 164 Contents

8.1.2 Effects on food production, agriculture, water, forests, fish, and livestock 164

8.1.3 Hot spots and countries at risk 166

8.2 Adaptation needs 167

8.2.1 Adaptation priorities 167

8.2.2 Barriers to adaptation 167

8.3 Responses and capacity 170

8.3.1 Development, poverty, and human rights implications 170

8.3.2 Marginalization, consumption and hunger 170

8.3.3 Most vulnerable groups 170

8.3.4 National/Government response (Bangladesh) 172

8.3.5 Civil society response 173

8.4 Advocacy and policy recommendations 173

9 Research results for Latin America 174

Part IV

The way forward: conclusions

10 Conclusion: elements of a rights-based strategy 175

11 Conclusion and recommendations: climate change, food security and human rights 181

11.1 Climate change, vulnerabilities, and groups at risk 182

11.2 Relevant trends in climate change 184

11.3 Response capacities to climate change – nationally and internationally 186

11.4 Response capacity at the local and community level 187

11.5 Response capacity at the international level 188

11.6 Climate change and development 188

11.7 Regional perspectives for climate change and food security 189

11.7.1 Africa 190

11.7.2 Asia 191

11.7.3 Latin America 193

References 196 Tables

Table 1: Likelihood of various CO2 equivalent concentrations exceeding various increases in global mean surface temperature in percent 30

Table 2: EU emission reduction proposals and its implications for global temperature increase 35

Table 3: Additional costs of adaptation in developing countries 35

Table 4: Typology of hunger 46

Table 5: Net importers of petroleum products and major grains as a percent of domestic apparent consumption – ranked by prevalence of undernourishment 53

Table 6: Forecast import bills of total food and major food commodities (USD million) 54

Table 7: Determinants of rural household vulnerabilities 63

Table 8: Global percentage shares of population, income, capacity, cumulative emissions, responsibility and RCI (combined Responsibility and Capability Index) for selected countries and groups of countries 68

Table 9: Examples of major projected impacts of climate change 71

Table 10: Quantified impacts of selected African droughts on livestock, 1981 to 1999 75

Table 11: Ten countries most affected by a 1 meter sea-level rise 83

Table 12: Impacts of climate change and socio-economic development paths on the number of people at risk for hunger in developing countries 96

Table 13: A typology of adaptive responses: examples from food production and food security 101

Table 14: Synergies between the MDGs and climate interventions 103

Table 15: Adaptation measures in key vulnerable sectors highlighted in national communications of developing countries 117

Table 16: Examples of adaptation responses according to different ecosystems 119

Table 17: Examples of adaptation options by poverty category 121

Table 18: Policy options for the design of local adaptation policies 122

Table 19: Best practices of climate change mitigation in agriculture 130

Table 20: Progress and challenges ahead in mainstreaming adaptation, as identified by the Development Assistance Committee of the OECD 133

Table 21: Estimated additional investment and financial flows needed for adaptation in 2030 139

Table 22: Ten countries most affected by absolute and relative economic losses from extreme weather events in 2006 142

Table 23: Observed changes in precipitation in parts of Africa 151

Table 24: Hunger in Africa and the developing world 152 Tables

Table 25: Some examples of complex adaptations already observed in Africa in response to climate and other stresses 156

Table 26: Overview of NAPA priority projects as submitted by African LDCs 158

Table 27: Suggestions to improve responding to climate change 161

Table 28: Projected impacts of climate change in Asia 165

Table 29: Hotspots in Asia 166

Table 30: Critical vulnerable areas/hotspots with most impacted sectors in Bangladesh 168

Table 31: Priority activities of adaptation and their costs as identified in NAPAs from selected Asian LDCs 169 Figures

Figure 1: A double response to climate change 28

Figure 2: Selected global impacts from warming associated with various reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions 29

Figure 3: Global emissions scenario with peak CO2 emissions in 2015, falling to 80 percent below 1990 levels in 2050 32

Figure 4: Four scenarios of the global climate future 33

Figure 5: Relative impacts of extreme weather events in 2006 according to World Bank country groupings 36

Figure 6: Elements of vulnerability profiles 37

Figure 7: Climate change impacts and the Millennium Development Goals in Africa 40

Figure 8: Interaction of determinants for food security 45

Figure 9: Number of undernourished people in the developing world 47

Figure 10: Regional distribution of undernourished people 48

Figure 11: Monthly FAO price indices for basic food commodity groups 52

Figure 12: Map of Parties to the ICESCR 57

Figure 13: Analytical framework to assess climate-related risks and food security 62

Figure 14: Deaths attributed to different types of extreme weather events in 2006 74

Figure 15: Projected impacts of climate change on ecosystems 78

Figure 16: Map of selected tipping elements and their consequences 80

Figure 17: Selected tipping elements and its temperature thresholds (above 1980-1999 levels) 82

Figure 18: Sectoral impacts of climate change at different levels of temperature increase 85

Figure 19: Climate change and food security 93

Figure 20: Africa‘s climate information gap 107

Figure 21: Annual official flows and shares potentially affected by climate change 131

Figure 22: Distribution of adaptation costs by sector for each country 141

Figure 23: Developed country investments into adaptation and their contributions to UNFCCC Funds 144

Figure 24: Overview of expected consequences of climate change in Africa 154 Abbreviations

AAUs Assigned Amount Units ADB Asian Development Bank AGGG United Nations Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases AF Adaptation Fund AoA WTO Agreement on Agriculture AOSIS Alliance of Small Island States AU African Union BCAS Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies CAADP Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme CBA Community-based adaptation CCS Carbon Capture and geological storage CDM Clean Development Mechanism CEGIS Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services CESCR UN-Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights

CO2 Carbon dioxide CO2e CO2 equivalent COP Conference of the Parties CRI Climate Risk Index CSO Civil Society Organisations CTA Technical Centre for Agriculture and Rural Cooperation ACP-EU DAE Department of Agriculture Extension DfID Department for International Development DPA Deutsche Presse-Agentur EEA European Environment Agency EC European Commission ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation EU European Union FAO Food and Agriculture Organisation FAR IPCC Fourth Assessment Report FIVIMS Food insecurity and vulnerability information mapping systems GCM General Circulation Models GDP Gross Domestic Product GDPRD Global Donor Platform on Rural Development GEF Global Environment Facility GHG Greenhouse gas emissions GNI Gross National Income GoB Government of Bangladesh GTZ German Agency for Technical Cooperation HDR UNDP Human Development Report IAASTD International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development IAGW Interagency Working Group ICDDR, B International Center for Diarrhoeal Diesease Research, Bangladesh ICESCR International Covenant for Economic, Social and Cultural Rights IDP Internally displaced persons Abbreviations

IDS Institute of Development Studies IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute IGES Institute for Global Environmental Strategies IGO Intergovernmental Organisation IISD International Institute for Sustainable Development IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPR Intellectual Property Rights LACC Livelihood Adaptation to Climate Change LDC Least Developed Countries LDCF Least Developed Countries Fund LIFDC Low-income food deficiency countries MDG Millennium Development Goals NAPA National Adaptation Programmes of Action NEPAD New Partnership initiative of the African Union for African Development NWP Nairobi Work Programme on Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change NTFP Non-timber forest products ODA Official Development Assistance OHCHR Office of the High-Commissioner on Human Rights OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development PPCR Pilot Programme for Climate Resilience Ppm parts per million PPP Power purchasing parities PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper RBM Rights-based monitoring RCI Responsibility and Capability Index SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation SADC Southern African Development Community SAP Structural Adjustment Programme SCCF Special Climate Change Fund SIDS Small Island Developing States SLE Centre for advanced training in rural development SLR Sea-level rise SPA Strategic Priority on Adaptation SRES Special Report on Emission Scenarios SSA Sub-Saharan Africa SST Sea-surface temperature TAR IPCC Third Assessment Report TERI The Energy and Resources Institute TNC Trans-national Corporation TRIPS WTO’s Agreement on Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP United Nations Environment Programme Abbreviations

UN-ESA United Nations – Department of Economic and Social Affairs UNFCCC UN Framework Convention on Climate Change USD US-Dollar WBGU German Advisory Council for Global Change WDR World Bank World Development Report WFC World Food Council WFS World Food Summit WFP World Food Programme WMO World Meterological Organisation WTO World Trade Organisation WWF World Wildlife Fund Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS

14 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Foreword “Diakonie Katastrophenhilfe”, the humanitarian aid organisation of the German Protestant Church, is striv- ing to embed disaster-risk reduction and adaptation to Climate change threatens to make the already difficult climate change as crossing-cutting issues in both relief situation of food security in the world even worse. The and rehabilitation. “Building back better” concerns not Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental only houses but also livelihoods, therefore “Diakonie Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – based on the evalu- Katastrophenhilfe” closely cooperates with “Bread for ation of many scientific studies – has made a critical the World” to strengthen the common approach to food assessment of the possible impacts of climate change security as well as to adaptation to climate change. on agriculture, livestock and fishing, particularly in the countries of the tropics and sub-tropics. The Food and Together we want to document in this study important Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) facts about the relationship between climate change also warns about the negative consequences, in particu- and food security, evaluate these facts systematically lar for smallholder subsistence farmers in what are in and incorporate them in policy recommendations for any case marginalized regions of Africa, Asia and Latin the national and international level, focussing on the America. In view of the threat of more famine, the development of policies to adapt to climate change. Human Rights Council of the United Nations has also started to examine the question of the responsibility of the international community of states in terms of human rights when it comes to dealing with the need to Stuttgart, October 2008 adapt to climate change. In particular, there is a need to provide support for vulnerable people in special need of protection, who are not able to cope with the consequences of climate change on their own. Danuta Sacher Head of the Policy & Campaign Department “Bread for the World”, the development organisation Bread for the World of the Protestant church in Germany, has always paid particular attention to fighting hunger and its structural Klaus Milke causes. Climate change presents this work with a new Chairman challenge, as it threatens what has already been achieved Germanwatch in some areas and causes new problems in other areas of the world. Food security and climate change is therefore Volker Gerdesmeier a strategic topic both in the international programme Head of Department Diakonie Katastrophenhilfe work and in respect of lobbying on development policy.

“Germanwatch”, an environmental and development organisation, which has closely observed and followed the international negotiations on climate change since their inception, has placed great emphasis on food security during climate change from an early stage, including the aspect of climate policy. Here the significance of adaptation and the financing of adaptation has become increasingly important over recent years, because this issue is decisive for the poorest developing countries and island states.

15 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS

16 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Executive summary thors see that unmitigated climate change could easily overwhelm adaptation possibilities in many parts of the world. 1. This study has been written in order to get a good overview about the impacts of climate change on food 3. The impact of climate change on food security will be security and the relevance of the right to adequate food. substantive. The increasing surface temperature influ- This study process was started with two specific motiva- ences factors very relevant for food security as precipita- tions: tion, water availability, weather extremes, and sea level rise. If certain tipping points are passed, entire conti- (1) While the number of publications and studies on nents can be heavily affected. Better regional and local climate change and its impact is rapidly growing, less in- assessments are needed to identify more specifically the formation is available to understand the particular risks risks of climate change, especially in developing coun- for those persons and groups who are malnourished or tries. The debate so far is biased towards global food at the brink of becoming hungry. This study shall there- security concerns, i.e. the global balance of how much fore sharpen the view of the problems these groups face and where food can be produced. But the impact on and it shall systematize how the global mega trend of cli- hunger and malnutrition can only be well estimated, if mate change might impact these marginalized groups. the effects on the household level are taken into consideration. Climate change will impact persons and groups (2) The study shall secondly look into the political di- that are already vulnerable to food insecurity. But there mension of climate change. Policy decisions of the next will also be new groups affected by climate change. decade will largely determine the dimension of the problem in this century. 4. Adaptation to the adverse impacts of climate change has long been neglected as a development issue, both 2. This study is based on the assumption that a two-di- by most governmental and nongovernmental organi- mensional response to climate change is needed: avoid- sations. Until recently, adaptation was also not at the ing the unmanageable (mitigation) and managing the centre of UN-climate negotiations. By now it has be- unavoidable (adaptation). come clear that the additional benefits of adaptation to climate change will be huge and that early action (1) Avoiding the unmanageable is directed to the need is cheaper than a post-disaster response, even though to prevent dangerous climate change. According to an there are still many uncertainties in existing adaptation emerging consensus among scientists, it is needed to cost estimates. limit global warming to a temperature increase below 2°C as compared to pre-industrial levels. In order to stay 5. Adaptation requires substantive investments in infra- below that limit, industrialized countries need to take structure such as dams, flood-resistant storage facilities, the lead for a drastic cut in emissions. Globally, emis- and techniques for reducing water loss in distribution sions have to be reduced by 50 to 85 percent until 2050 systems etc. It requires monitoring weather extremes against 1990 levels. The global emissions should peak and developing disaster preparation strategies. Higher during the next decade. prices for agricultural inputs, water, and food imports must be expected. Capacity building in communities (2) Managing the unavoidable means that sound adapta- particularly at risk, in national, regional, and local ad- tion policies are needed to deal with the consequences ministrations etc. is of utmost importance and will re- of climate change, which are already increasingly visible quire resources. today. The special focus of the study is on the adaptation needs particularly related to food security and the The direct and indirect consequences of climate change realization of the right to adequate food. But the au- on food, water and health have the potential to influ-

17 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS ence the realization of the MDGs. Additionally, climate but because they cannot digest this food due to sick- impacts and adaptation needs will use resources that ness, e.g. diarrhea (Eide 2001). The study uses the would have otherwise been available to realize the three different levels of food security (global, national Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). and household food security) to describe the effects of climate change. „How the world deals with climate change today will have a direct bearing on the human 8. In order to deal adequately with the impact of cli- development prospects of a large section of hu- mate change on food security, the work has to start with manity“ (UNDP 2007, 8). a good analysis of those groups which are particularly marginalized today. They will often be the most affected 6. One clear recommendation of this study is that UN by climate change and they have very limited coping climate negotiations should create a reliable financial capacities. Given the crucial role of marginalization in basis in order to manage the unavoidable. Substantial the food security debate, it is clear that agricultural and financial resources in addition to existing commitments food production problems cannot be tackled at the tech- of developing countries to provide 0.7 percent of their nical level. The situation of the rural poor has been ag- GNI are needed to cope with the expected adaptation gravated by the fact that rural areas were neglected in needs for developing countries. However, more funding regional, national, and international policy making. does not necessarily mean that the money reaches the most vulnerable groups. The rights-based framework 9. A person or a family is a vulnerable person or family should be considered by UNFCCC, as it has the poten- due to their livelihood situation and their factor endow- tial to help measure progress, review government activi- ment. Often government response is decisive in wheth- ties, and generate resources. er the vulnerable situation translates into persistence of or additional hunger or malnutrition. A given (insuffi- Climate change, food security and groups at risk cient) factor endowment of families is already partially a result of government policy. Using the right to adequate 7. Key concept in the United Nations to measure the food will therefore be very helpful in designing adapta- food and nutrition situation of people and groups is the tion policies. In regard to increasing the accountability term „food security“. The latest standard definition used of governments, it will help guide the implementation in the FAO (2007b, 6) is of effective adaptation policies.

„Food security exists when all people at all 10. By now it is scientifically well established, that times have physical or economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their „the impacts of climate change will fall dispro- dietary needs and food preferences for an ac- portionately upon developing countries and the tive and healthy life. To achieve food security, poor persons within all countries, and thereby all four of its components must be adequate. exacerbate inequities in health status and ac- These are: availability, stability, accessibility and cess to adequate food, clean water, and other utilization.“ resources“ (IPCC 2001, 12).

Additionally, food security depends on a variety of un- The impact of climate change will be particularly sub- derlying determinants. Food must be nutritious and stantial on smallholder and subsistence agriculture. safe. The body must be in a condition to consume food Their livelihood systems, particularly in low latitudes, without becoming ill. UNICEF and other nutritionists will be affected by major changes due to climate change. emphasize the fact that half of the children dying from The farming system will be directly affected by chang- hunger are not dying because of missing food supply, ing weather patterns, sea level rise, and the increase

18 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS in frequency and intensity of extreme events. The proof climate change, adaptation must be viewed as a long- ductivity of livestock and fisheries systems will also be term challenge for societies. „Mainstreaming“, or inte- affected, as well as potential income from collecting ac- gration of this challenge into sectoral and other policies tivities in forests. and programs at different levels of decision making is necessary. 11. The impact analyses of the study concludes that the specific family situation needs to be taken into account, One priority must be the reduction of vulnerability to because livelihood systems are typically complex and a climate change. At the same time, adaptation policies number of factors interfere. Several crops and livestock must address negative effects on the most vulnerable species are involved (in intercropping systems etc.) and groups in order to avoid hardship for groups most af- many smallholder livelihoods have a variety of income fected by climate change. Ecosystem management sources, such as the use of wild resources (from for- plans that allow for multi-sectoral response dealing with ests), remittances, and other non agricultural income whole livelihood systems are needed in addition to sec- strategies. Government support can also play a role, but toral responses. This study summarizes the instruments so far many of the smallholder farmers are faced with available for a response at different levels and in key marginalization processes in national and international vulnerable sectors. The study recommends that adapta- agricultural policies. Therefore, support is often unavail- tion policies need to be closely monitored in order to able or insufficient. Effective adaptation policies should guarantee that the means are spent meaningfully. start with supporting existing coping and adaptation strategies of poorer groups in rural as well as urban en- 14. A human rights-based assessment can help to best vironments. orient adaptation policies and the use of all instruments towards most vulnerable groups and to set priorities on Response capacities to climate change – national who should get support first and what can be imple- ly and internationally mented progressively.

12. Many developing countries will be most heavily af- One of the strengths of this approach is that it helps to set fected, but they have limited response capacities. These up procedural guarantees for the affected communities limitations contribute largely to their particular affected- and people for participation. This includes having access ness. They have limits in forecasting changing weather to relevant information (transparency) and the right to conditions, particularly extreme weather events, or to complain. A second strength is that a rights-based ap- invest in infrastructure such as dams or other mecha- proach requests a specific outcome. Governments have nisms of flood control. to prove that they focus their policy and budget decisions toward the most vulnerable groups and that no Response capacities are also needed to enable changes group is overlooked. Governments have to prove that in the use of agricultural crops and varieties and irriga- their own adaptation policies do no harm i.e. deprive tion and land use techniques to support affected families people from access to food or water. in order to cope with the need to migrate or to cover the cost of other forms of damage to the house or the land 15. Development cooperation can play a crucial role in of the family. It is important to differentiate what part of all stages of the adaptation policies. Different actors can adaptation can be done at the household level, locally, play different parts. Bi- and multilateral aid can help in- by national governments and where is international sup- tegrating adaptation into policy development. Capacity port needed. must be built at all stages of the adaptation process in developing countries, from disaster preparedness and 13. While some priority action needs to be urgently im- early warning to insurance schemes and policy design plemented in adapting to the short-term consequences issues. Other stakeholders, such as the scientific com-

19 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS munity and NGOs, should be included into adaptation Policies of multilateral institutions can and sometimes planning. Aid organisations often have access to the do limit states‘ capacities to act in favor of poorer seg- most vulnerable groups and they can assist with their ments of their societies. experiences in project management and implementation and also by mobilizing internationally available A rights-based orientation for adaptation policies can knowledge. help to overcome such forms of discrimination and exclusion. It will probably not be able to overcome all 16. The financing of adaptation measures will need forms of institutionalized, historic marginalization, but adequate international support. The study discusses they can at least avoid aggravating existing inequalities. the UNFCCC-supported National Action Plans for Moreover, if adaptation policies are not well designed, Adaptation (NAPAS) as well as the strenght and weak- they might not achieve their own objective – supporting nesses of the newly introduced Adaptation Fund under those affected the most. Instead, the money is again di- the Kyoto Protocol. The UNFCCC process will likely rected towards those more powerful within the society. take major decisions about the future adaptation process at the end of 2009. A rights-based approach stimulates analysis and reflection on the causes of entitlement-failure and allows a 17. This study contains chapters that summarize the re- more precise description of roles, obligations, and regional effects of climate change on food security. This is sponsibilities of different actors in the development followed by an identification of key affected, vulnerable process. It is a way of reducing the accountability-gap groups and a discussion of the available response capac- works against the poor in many countries. ity of governments and local actors in the regions. These regional chapters are summaries of the regional studies 19. A rights-based approach not only asks for an end that have been written in parallel to the cover study. to violation of and for positive outcomes for the most vulnerable groups. They also set result-oriented stand- Climate change and human rights ards for the political processes. They must be participatory, transparent, and non-discriminatory. To sum 18. National policies – regarding health, education, so- it up, rights-based adaptation policies are a good tool cial services, taxation and subsidies, property rights and to ensure that the money earmarked for adaptation is their legal protection etc. – often reflect the interests of spend reasonably. It would be helpful if the Office of the powerful sectors and are seldom oriented towards the High Commissioner for Human Rights, the FAO, and needs of vulnerable and marginalized groups. This is the UNFCCC would develop a rights-based adaptation true for formal and informal political decision-making policy checklist that could help governments design ad- structures. aptation policies accordingly.

Particularly, marginalized women and men in rural ar- „The impact of climate change will fall dispro- eas and in poor quarters of urban conglomerates don‘t portionately on the world‘s poorest countries, benefit from them. They usually have no access to a many of them here in Africa. Poor people al- functioning legal system, land-registration systems, jus- ready live on the front lines of pollution, dis- tice and appeal mechanisms for checking discriminatory aster, and the degradation of resources and laws or their practices etc. Not only national govern- land. For them, adaptation is a matter of sheer ance, but also international policies can be determinants survival“ (UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, ad- of poverty and exclusion. dressing the 12th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on International trade policies often do have a direct im- Climate Change, 15 November 2006, Nairobi, pact on the income of poor producers or consumers. Kenya).

20 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Introduction challenge, while at the same time the potential impact on food security for different mitigation scenarios has to be investigated. Some guiding questions for the debate Bread for the World (BfdW) and Germanwatch have are posed here: What are the variations in the impact of initiated this study process on the impact of climate climate change in a continental and regional perspec- change on food security in 2006. BfdW has a particular tive? What type of impact will the different emission focus in its development work on people and groups and temperature scenarios have? And what does this who are hungry and malnourished or who are at the mean for adaptation policies at the local level? risk of becoming hungry. Germanwatch has a particular focus on „climate change and development“ and has Secondly, the study shall look into the political dimen- been following the UN climate change negotiations for sion of climate change. Climate change is already visible many years. This study process was started with the and measurable. The future impact is dependent on the motivation to learn more about the potential impact of effectiveness of climate change mitigation and adapta- climate change on the food security of these most vul- tion policies at the international and national level. The nerable groups. specific impact at the local level will, however, depend very much on the political adaptation decisions that are While the number of publications and studies on climate being taken at the national level and the support vulner- change and its impact is rapidly growing, much more in- able groups receive nationally as well as from the inter- formation is still needed to understand the particular ef- national community. These will determine the quality of fects on those persons and groups who are malnourished adaptation policies. or at the brink of becoming hungry. Hunger goes hand in hand with poverty. The study shall therefore sharpen What do local or national climate change policies look the view of the problems that these groups face and it like? What are the financial and regulatory capacities shall systematize how the global mega trend of climate of relevant actors for the design and implementation of change will impact on these marginalized groups. adaptation policies? What international conditionalities are influencing national level policy reaction? These are At the same time, it is clear that the size of the problems the questions of interest which need to be studied in generated by climate change will depend on the politi- order to understand what impacts climate change will cal decisions of today as well as on the implementation have on hungry and marginalized people. of these decisions. Part of climate change is already unavoidable. However, the less emission reductions will be Policy decisions at the national and international level achieved and the higher the temperature increase will and the quality of government response will be key for be in the future, the more severe the implications for the capacity of people to cope with the adverse effects of food security will be, in particular in the low latitude climate change. They will define, to a large extent, the areas (IPCC 2007b). Already, the unavoidable con- severity of its consequences. sequences will severely challenge people around the globe. However, in order to avoid large-scale adverse The study shall therefore look into the politics of adap- impacts from global warming, global temperature in- tation and help to analyze which policy decisions are crease should be limited to well below 2°C compared needed and how national and international policies to pre-industrial levels. should be designed in order to adequately respond to the challenges ahead. The analysis of policies done in New scientific information points in an even more am- the study is guided by an understanding of governments‘ bitious direction (Hansen et al 2008). This will require roles which is derived from the right to food framework. global emission reductions of at significantly more than More than 30 years ago most countries in the world had 50 percent by 2050 compared to 1990. This is a huge ratified the International Covenant for Economic, Social

21 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS and Cultural Rights (ICESCR) and thus committed in a The study describes the major trends that climate change legally binding manner to protect basic rights, in par- will have on food security by using all levels of food se- ticular the right to food. curity. It gives also an overview of the latest research on hunger trends, including an analysis of those groups The overview of research results shall be the basis most affected by hunger and malnutrition. It further dis- for conclusions on the question: How to effectively cusses what the potential impacts of climate change are strengthen the adaptive capacities of the vulnerable on these groups. groups and how to minimize the expected damage of climate change on food security? The results shall guide This first part is followed by a second part (II) looking on the one hand the future advocacy and project work into the response capacity in developing countries and of BfdW and its partners. On the other hand, it shall at the international level. provide those involved in the climate change and food security debate to build on these results. Part III of the study summarizes the key aspects of three regional studies that are being written. The assessment This study was conducted by Germanwatch in coopera- of climate change impacts at the regional level is based tion with Bread for the World and research partners in on the projections of current climate models for the dif- Africa1 and Asia2. The final product consists out of fol- ferent regions in the developing world, namely Africa, lowing elements: Asia, and Latin America.

(1) Cover study Each of the chapters will first look into the expected effects of climate change in the region and particularly on The cover study will start (I) with an overview of the the most vulnerable groups, followed by a subchapter current status of climate change research and food in- on the size and quality of adaptation policies needed in security. It is based on currently available literature, in order to deal with these problems. It will finally look particular the Fourth Assessment Report (FAR) of the into the response capacity at the regional/national Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), level. The study will end with a chapter discussing the which was released throughout 2007. The International way forward (Part IV), the conclusions and recommen- Panel on Climate Change is the most authorative re- dations. search body on climate issues. It brings together the peer-reviewed, relevant research results and models the (2) Regional studies3 potential impact of climate change in different scenarios. The third assessment report (TAR) was presented in The three regional studies will look, in more detail, into 2001 and the fourth one (FAR) was published between expected climatic changes and the consequences, par- February 2007 and August 2007 (IPCC 2001 and IPCC ticularly for the most vulnerable groups of the society. 2007a-d). They shall give an overview of the available literature

1 Stephen O. Anyango (Department of Environmental Science, Kenyatta University, Kenya) and Victor Orindi (International Development Research Centre, Kenya)

2 Ferdausur Rahman, Mizanur Rahman Bijoy, Nusrat Habib (all Network on Climate Change, Bangladesh) and Umme Kulsum (Climate Change Focal Point, Prodipan)

3 The regional studies that have contributed to this study have been prepared with financial support of the German Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). The content expressed exclusively represents the opinions of the authors and the publishing organisations.

22 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS and try to answer the question: Which consequences in the long run, the present study will look into the from climate change have to be expected on food secu- matter, because it is often neglected when adaptation rity at a regional or at a country level? policies to climate change are discussed. The three regional studies which are part of this study process shall They will not cover the whole region in detail, but give have a particular focus on the political response capacity a comprehensive overview accompanied by more in- of governments in their region and shall highlight these depth research on specific countries. Still it is difficult to capacity problems in a systematic way. understand the consequences of climate change at the local level in detail. This makes these assessments and The political response capacity and willingness to act is conclusions more difficult. Progress and more efforts in of high relevance to judge the impact of climate change regional and national studies are needed in order to bet- on groups and persons facing hunger and malnutrition ter understand the specific needs for adaptation policies. today, and on other groups threatened to become hun- But there is also a need for new policy models to adapt gry or malnourished in the future. As we will see below, to a future, where weather patterns will be much more far too many of those groups facing hunger and malnu- uncertain. trition today are already faced with a non-responsive or not sufficiently responding government. When margin- Assessing the political response capacity in developing alization in national politics is already at the core of their countries is particularly relevant to the impact of climate problems it is very relevant to consider what happens to change on food security which is discussed both in the these groups when their problems might be aggravated cover study and in the regional studies. Responding to through climate change. the impacts of climate change will be a very challenging task for many developing countries, as the country/re- The challenge of the study will be to bring these different gional examples will show. This challenge comes on top levels of analysis together: The factual impact of climate of existing problems that are due to a variety of diffe change on agriculture and water, the response capacity rent reasons, both internal and external ones. Poverty is of political systems to the increasing problems and the widespread in many countries. particular situation of those already faced with hunger and malnutrition and those most likely to be threatened Quite a number of countries are involved in substantive by hunger. Finally, implications and also potentials of internal conflicts or civil wars which are binding most the right to food debate for adaptation to climate change of their capacities. Others are badly governed by non have to be examined. transparent and non accountable elites. Corruption can be a substantive element that hinders effective gover nance.

External reasons that limit the governmental response capacity are as complex as the high debt burden (limiting the use of available national resources) or international policy conditionalities and international agreements that restrict the capacity of governments to choose the best policy alternatives.

It is therefore very relevant to study how the current status of governance will impact countries‘ ability to adopt adequate adaptation policies. While such an analysis will require very good and detailed country studies

23 Climate Change I Study 02

Part I ANALYSIS

Climate change and food insecurity

1 Climate change and food Eleven of the last twelve years (1995-2006) belong to security – the development of the the warmest years since the measurement of global debate surface temperature. The increase in global average temperature during the last 50 years has been twice as much as in the first half of the 20th century. The increase in temperature differs regionally. It is higher 1.1 General observations in the temperate climates of the northern and southern hemisphere. The impact of climate change on food security will be huge and substantive. The latest forecast by the IPCC A part of climate change can no longer be avoided: has been presented with a high degree of certainty. After Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions accumulate in an increase of 0.74°C during the last century, globally the atmosphere and have a lifetime of several decades, averaged surface temperature is projected to rise by be- thus today we feel the consequences of past emissions. tween 1.1°C up to 6.4°C by the last decade of the 21st This leads to the undeniable fact that even if all anthro- century (IPCC 2007a, 13). This temperature increase pogenic emissions were to be stopped immediately, the will change the timing and amount of precipitation, and temperature would continue to increase for some dec- the availability of water. It will alter weather trends such ades, by an estimated 0.6 °C, according to IPCC pro- as wind patterns, and also the intensity and frequency of jections (IPCC 2007d, 7). However, the world is still weather extremes, such as droughts, heat waves, floods far away from substantial reductions in greenhouse gas or storms. All key elements of food security are affected emissions. by climate changed. Generally, there is little doubt that the higher the temperature increase the more severe the Global emissions have increased by more than 25 per- impacts on food security in developing countries will cent since 1990, with a strong acceleration since the be. The latest research results will be presented below year 2000. The increase has three main reasons: In (chapter 3). Eastern Europe emissions have grown again after a decade of strong decline, emissions in rapidly developing There is no doubt: Climate change is already happening. countries – first of all China – grow quickly, and high At a civil society meeting in the Food and Agriculture gas prices have caused a strong worldwide shift fom gas Organization (FAO) at the beginning of 2008, farmers‘ to coal. As a consequence, worldwide emissions per representatives from different regions of the world re- GDP unit increased the first time during the last hun- ported the many changes they are already recognizing. dred years. Science tells the same story. The world now faces the challenge to avoid a level „Observational evidence from all continents of climate change that leads to large-scale dangerous and most oceans shows that many natural consequences, as spelled out in Article 2 of the United systems are being affected by regional climate Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change changes, particularly temperature increases“ (UNFCCC), which was signed by 191 countries (includ- (IPCC 2007b, 2). ing the US) in 1992:

24 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS „The ultimate objective of this Convention change, bio energy and food security, as an expression and any related legal instruments that the of this increasing attention. The soaring food crisis made Conference of the Parties may adopt is to the organisers change the focus. achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of green- The main FAO reports on climate change published house gas concentrations in the atmosphere at in the last several years have investigated possible im- a level that would prevent dangerous anthropo- pacts of future climate change on global food security. genic interference with the climate system. Such However, these reports reflected the still unresolved un- a level should be achieved within a time frame certainties of the projections and scenarios available at sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally that time (e.g. FAO 2002, 79). The first major chapter

to climate change, to ensure that food produc- on the issue of agriculture and climate change was in- tion is not threatened and to enable economic cluded in the 2002 outlook of the FAO: „World agricul- development to proceed in a sustainable man- ture: towards 2015/2030.” ner“ (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change/UNFCCC 1992, 4). The main reason for the fact that predictions and analysis about costs of adapting to future impacts in the area Even that early it was recognized that climate change of food production, food security and agriculture vary may have a negative impact on food production. significantly is that the climate models available so far Although this recognition is increasingly being under- are still not best equipped to be precise in the forecast pinned by scientific findings, relatively few studies have for micro or meso changes in the national and regional looked into the matter of climate change and food secu- manifestations of climate change. This has different rea- rity in detail. sons. It is due to limited availability of analyses and a larger natural climate variability at the regional scale The second working group, „Climate Change 2007: (compared to the global scale). The chaotic nature of Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability“, of the IPCC‘s many of these processes will always limit the possibility FAR addresses agricultural issues in several chapters, to forecast them. in particular in chapter 3 (Fresh water resources and their management, Kundzewicz et al. 2007), chapter Last not least, other factors (such as land-use change) 4 (Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services, are more influential on the local climatic conditions Fischlin et al. 2007) and chapter 5 (food fibre and for- (IPCC 2007b). However, with the recent increase in est products, Easterling et al. 2007). The fact that the disaggregation of the climate models and scenarios, and Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the IPCC, published with more research being done on the regional and na- in 2001, did not contain a chapter on food and fibre tional outcomes, more reliable impact assessments can shows the increasing attention that scientists now pay be elaborated on now. One consequence thereof is that to this problem (IPCC 2001). the available literature on the tools, policies and costs for adaption policies is continuously growing.

1.2 The initial FAO debate: optimism While the latest models have become more precise on on climate change and food security the regional variation of the effects of climate change, it has to be noted that most potential feedbacks are not yet The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the included. And small scale forecasts have many more un- United Nations has also started to intensify its work certainties than large scale forecasts. Also, particularly on the impacts of climate change on food security. The in developing countries, less and poorer quality data is High-Level FAO conference held in June 2008 in Rome all that is available. Thus, much caution has to be used was originally intended to focus on the issue of climate making predictions at smaller scales.

25 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS „Difficulties remain in reliably simulating and an overall comprehensive analysis of the impacts would attributing observed temperature changes at also have to acknowledge that these gains, combined smaller scales. On these scales, natural climate with predicted increasing yields (fertilizer effect of

variability is relatively larger making it harder CO2), were calculated against losses from adverse im- to distinguish changes expected due to exter- pacts, such as the loss or reduced productivity of fertile nal forcing. Uncertainties in local forcing and land caused by flooding (due to sea-level rise or extreme feedbacks also make it difficult to estimate the precipitation events), droughts and other relevant fac- contribution of greenhouse gas increases to ob- tors. served small-scale temperature changes“ (IPCC 2007a, 9). In less well-watered areas, particularly in the tropics, the FAO estimated that the rise in temperature would This also means that adaptation strategies have to be increase evapotransporation and lower soil moisture developed in a way that they are flexible and can cope levels. Both would lead to processes that render some with the scientific uncertainty as much as possible (see cultivated areas unsuitable for cropping as well as the also chapter 4.1). increasing aridity of tropical grassland. The reduction of the overall availability of water for irrigation would When FAO started some years ago to look into the po- limit the possibility to extend irrigated areas for agri- tential impact of climate change on food security the culture and would therefore constrain a fast increase in initial conclusions were quite optimistic for the global future yields. In addition to the water scarcity on arid level. However, they took into account adverse effects lands, salinisation processes also adversely impact soil for certain countries. The FAO concluded that in the productivity. Most of the high-yielding varieties used in next three decades, climate change is not expected to agriculture today require irrigation and optimal inputs depress global food availability, but that it may increase in form of fertilizer and pesticides in order deliver the the dependence of developing countries on food imports high yields. and accentuate food insecurity for vulnerable groups and countries (FAO 2003a, 361f). Another important reason for the optimistic conclusion was that the analysis of the impact of climate change on In that report, the organization highlighted both areas or food security was still basically oriented towards the glo- regions with potential losses and areas or regions with bal equation of food produced versus the world‘s popu- potential gains. The FAO estimated that an increase in lation, i.e. „food security“ as global food security. global carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere would cause plant stomata to narrow, so helping to reduce water losses and to improve the water efficiency 1.3 From optimism to acknowledging in agriculture. climate change risks

Increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon diox- Today three processes are nurturing a change in this ide were supposed to have a fertilizing effect on many relative optimism: crops because they stimulate photosynthesis. Parallel to this overall potential positive outcome, it was estimated (1) First, the potential losses are becoming clearer, while that an increase in surface temperature would create the potential gains are being judged much more skep- benefits for the agriculture in temperate latitudes. tically. The predictions presented above are only five years old but knowledge has increased fast. The evolu- The FAO projected an increase of areas suitable for crop- tion of our understanding will be summarized below in ping, an expansion of the length of the growing period chapter 2 and for the regional level in the chapters 7 to and reduced cost for overwintering livestock. However, 9. In general the latest trend can be summarized thus:

26 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Impacts will be more severe and adaptation costs world population, the assessment of the severity of the will be higher than expected some years ago, while the impacts has been modified. potential gains in a warmer world are smaller, particularly the gains for agriculture in temperate climates. The latest studies express increasing concern regarding the negative impact of climate change on food security.

The fertilizer effect of CO2 has been overestimated and parallel climate stress on crops is limiting its ef- In order to better understand the impacts and associ- fects. ated costs of both damages and adaptation measures on policy-relevant levels, particularly with regard to the And the effects of an increasing number and inten- most vulnerable groups of society and countries, it is sity of weather disasters is becoming clearer. of utmost importance to have a second focus, next to global food security, on the level of household food se- (2) Second, the analysis is moving ahead and puts more curity. The picture of threats clears when the hungry emphasis on the assessment of the impact of climate and malnourished of today and those currently living at change on particularly vulnerable groups, including the the brink of hunger are placed directly in the focus of interplay of these impacts with factors that determine the analysis. the peoples‘ vulnerability and adaptive capacities. Global food markets will provide those with purchas- (3) The third aspect is the recent development in world ing power with sufficient agricultural products and food agricultural markets. The prices for many key agricul- supply. Those who lack an adequate income, those who tural products have gone up to levels unseen in the last cannot produce enough from their own resources, those three decades, caused by factors such as: who do not have enough labor capacity in their family or those affected by weather disasters or irregularities the increasing demand for meat and milk products in will have major problems in buying food. The negative Asian developing economies such as China and India; impact of climate change on food production will have an important impact on food prices. The recent fast in- the demand for liquid agro fuels for transportation crease in food price is very likely to trigger an increase in industrialized countries and in some emerging econo- in relative factor prices for land, water and other pro- mies; ductive assets.

and the high volatility in harvests at the global level (see chapter 2.4). 1.4 A two-dimensional response is needed: avoiding dangerous climate The combination of these three factors has led to a situ- change and adapting to the unavoidable ation where production no longer meets demand, and the reserves for major crops have been declining rapidly. This study project is based on the assumption that a The situation is further worsened by the annual loss of two-dimensional response to the challenge of climate productive land. change is needed: to avoid the unmanageable and to manage the unavoidable. This new scenario has triggered alarm bells inside the FAO discussions on climate change. As long as a global Without increased efforts to limit global warming, adap- surplus situation was a regular phenomenon, climate tation to its adverse impacts is likely to become impossi- change was seen as one of many factors influencing ble for millions of people around the world. At the same production. But in a context of increasing problems time the unavoidable consequences of climate change in keeping pace with demand and with the increasing require the urgent development of effective adaptation

27 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Figure 1: A double response to climate change

Avoid the unmanageable: Manage the unavoidable: Limit global warming to below 2°C Adaptation to the unavoidable con- (compared to 1860), need for drastical sequences of climate change  reduction of emissions (global emission peak before 2020); industrialised countries  taking the lead

Climate change threatens poverty reduction Sustainable poverty reduction as a key strategy to increase adaptive capacity

Source: Germanwatch illustration

strategies. Climate change threatens progress in poverty scale – major uncertainties. Most of the regular models reduction in developing countries, but at the same time look for linear trends that climate change might cause, sustainable poverty reduction strategies generally have such as the increase in temperature and its impact on to be seen as a key element of policies to reduce the water availability. Such linear scenarios help to calculate vulnerability of the poor and to increase their adaptive the size of change and to design adaptation measures. capacity. But quite a number of atmospheric or related processes are non linear. There, development can reach threshold 1.4.1 Avoiding dangerous climate change: levels where the whole development of the studied sys- limit global warming to below 2°C tem might dramatically change directions or speed up. Climate researchers are increasingly investigating these There is now little doubt that the higher the global tem- so-called tipping elements, which are in most cases temperature increases the more severe will be the conse- perature thresholds where non-linear systems might be quences particularly in developing countries. The level triggered, including several feedback loops. of global warming depends on how much the world will be able to curb its greenhouse gas emissions in the next When such a threshold – the tipping point – is reached, decades. Many of the investment decisions which are the system element might change in a relatively short relevant for decades to come (e.g. coal power plants, time span; in other cases, it changes slowly but irrevers- airplanes) will be made in the next 15 years. ibly. We have to expect tipping points at all levels, but usually this expression is only used if the scale of the af- Figure 2 shows the projected sectoral impacts accord- fected tipping element is at least sub-continental (Lenton ing to different levels of temperature increase (above et al. 2008). Many of the discussed tipping points could 1980-1999 levels), and subsequently certain levels of be reached during this century. These tipping elements greenhouse gas emissions. have the potential to lead to unprecedented threats to humankind. During the last three years there has These projections are based on the modeling of future been major scientific progress in understanding them. development – one important pillar of climate change Knowledge has dramatically increased, but there is still research. Such models have – especially on regional a lot of uncertainty in defining the exact threshold for

28 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Figure 2: Selected global impacts from warming associated with various reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions

Vertical lines indicate likely impacts of the median warming expected to result from indicated emissions scenarios (percentage cuts are from 1990 levels); shaded columns show 5 to 95% uncertainty ranges for impacts of a 50 percent cut.

Source: Parry et al. 2008, 1

29 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS these dramatic developments. (The risks associated with later than 2015 (IPCC 2007c, 22). However, the actual tipping elements in the climate system will be explained development in global emissions is the opposite: They in much more detail in chapter 3.) have increased 24 percent since 1990 (IPCC 2007c, 2), with rapidly increasing growth rates in the past years Thus, limiting global warming to a degree which keeps compared to the 1990s. However, assessments under- the likelihood that tipping points are passed as low as taken by Stern show that even this scenario would leave possible is one crucial criterion to avoiding dangerous a 78 percent probability that global temperature increase climate change. More and more climate researchers would exceed the threshold of 2°C (Table 1). agree that based on this risk analysis global warming should be limited to well below 2°C above pre-indus- A recent paper released by a group of scientists associ- trial levels, or about 1.3°C above present levels. This is ated with James Hansen from the NASA advocates for indicated by the black line in Figure 2. a stabilization target of 350 ppm CO2 equivalent. The result of the study is based on a more detailed analy- In November 2006, the former chief economist of the sis of feedback effects in the earth system that are not World Bank, Nicholas Stern, released his report „The sufficiently addressed in the IPCC scenarios (Hansen et economics of climate change“. This „Stern Report“ al. 2008). This is significantly below present levels and highlights that tackling global warming will become would need more drastic emission reductions plus in- economically much cheaper than dealing with the dam- creased efforts to take CO2 out of the atmosphere (e.g. ages of a non-mitigation future (Stern 2006). This con- by reforestation and changed agricultural techniques). clusion has been underlined by the findings of the IPCC (IPCC 2007c). Achieving such targets will be quite challenging, because „climate change mitigation is about transforming The IPCC suggests that in a scenario where global green- the way that we produce and use energy“ (UNDP 2007, house gas emissions (GHG) would be reduced by 50 to 20). In addition, trends like tropical deforestation have 85 percent until 2050 (compared to 2000), the tem- to be reversed. perature increase could be limited to 2.0 to 2.4°C above pre-industrial levels, at an atmospheric concentration The UN climate change negotiations are currently in the level of 445 to 490 ppm CO2 equivalent. Global GHG process of discussing long-term global emission reduc- emissions would have to peak and then decline by no tion targets as a starting point for sustainable emission

Table 1: Likelihood of various CO2 equivalent concentrations exceeding various increases in global mean surface temperature in percent

Stabilization level 2°C 3°C 4°C 5°C 6°C 7°C (in ppm CO2 eq) 450 78 18 3 1 0 0

500 96 44 11 3 1 0 550 99 69 24 7 2 1

650 100 94 58 24 9 4 750 100 99 82 47 22 9

Source: Stern 2008

30 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS pathways, but also a new round of national reduction accept ceilings for emissions based on an historic date – targets for industrialized countries for the period from such as 1990 – because they fear that this might hinder 2013 to 2020. their further economic development. China now is one of the few examples of developing countries where av- The first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol which erage per capita emissions have reached a level which is was agreed in 1997 and which finally came into force higher than the global average (MNP 2008). in 2005, has already set such targets for industrialized countries, however at a scale far from being sufficient The different per capita emissions are one key reason to prevent dangerous climate change. These targets are why developed countries are expected to reduce their thought to result in a reduction of the industrialized emissions much more drastically and rapidly than any countries emissions of 5.2 percent by 2012 (compared of the developing countries, by at least 25 to 40 percent to 1990). But the USA, which had signed the Protocol by 2020 and at least 80 percent to 95 percent by 2050 under the Clinton administration, refused to ratify it. (both compared to 1990 levels) (Gupta et al. 2007). Only Europe has managed to significantly reduce its Some projections even see steeper reduction efforts as emissions during the last 18 years. However, much of necessary, given the uncertainties entailed in the cli- these reductions were due to de-industrialization in East mate system. Figure 3 shows the implications of a global and Central Europe. The downward trend has been pri- reduction of 80 percent by 2050 (compared to 1990), marily caused by emissions savings in Germany and the developed countries’ (Annex I) reduction efforts of 90 United Kingdom, due to different climate and energy percent, and the implications for emissions in develop- policy measures (EEA 2008, 14). ing countries (non-Annex I).

The Kyoto Protocol has been an important first step, but This analysis reveals on the one hand that even if devel- is far from changing the emission pathways on the nec- oped countries were to reduce their emissions to zero, essary scale. In 1994 the UN Framework Convention it would not be sufficient to avoid dangerous climate on Climate Change (UNFCCC), upon which the Kyoto change if present emissions trends continue in the de- Protocol is based, had already come into force (UNFCCC veloping world. On the other hand, it also shows that 1992). It introduced the principle of common but dif- the less the developed countries reduce, the higher the ferentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities reduction requirement for developing countries would of industrialized and developing countries. This means be if the 2°C limit were to be taken seriously. At the that industrialized countries, which have historically same time, population growth is expected to continue contributed the most GHG emissions and have the most until the middle of the century. resources, must take the lead in international climate policy (IPCC 2007b). The challenge now is to reconcile global emission reduction efforts with the legitimate developmental as- Emissions are still on the rise in most developed coun- pirations of developing countries. Achieving this is not tries and emerging economies are increasingly playing a a question of lacking technologies or scarce resources, role as additional causers of climate change. China has but primarily of the political will to cooperate and to now become the biggest emitting country and was re- tackle one of the greatest challenges ever faced by man- sponsible for two thirds of the emissions growth in 2006 kind. Some of the most important instruments to reduce (MNP 2008). For the climate, this is an alarming trend. GHG emissions and to realize a low-carbon economy The same is – on a lower level – true for India. However, are carbon markets, carbon taxes, new and additional from an equity perspective it is important to note that technology deployment instruments to the support of developing countries in general still have a much lower large scale energy efficiency, and renewable energy. output of emissions on a per capita basis. They claim Carbon capture and geological storage technologies their right to development and are not yet willing to (CCS) may also play a role, if they prove functioning.

31 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS

Figure 3: Global emissions scenario with peak CO2 emissions in 2015, falling to 80 percent below 1990 levels in 2050. Annex 1 emissions decline to 90 percent below 1990 levels in 2050

12 2°C Emergency pathway Annex I physical emissions 10 Non-Annex I physical emissions

6 emissions (GtC) 2

4 Annual CO 2

0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Source: based on Baer et al. 2008, 3

A combination of many instruments and technologies The livestock sector accounts for more than half of the will be needed to limit global warming to well below GHG emissions coming from agriculture. This amount 2°C, and simultaneously to satisfy the increasing energy is equivalent to more than two-thirds of the total emis- demands of rapidly developing countries with growing sions attributable to deforestation and to more than one- populations. third of total agricultural release of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) (FAO 2007b, 10). There is a huge Agriculture itself is a significant source of greenhouse potential for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases gas emissions. The GHG emissions from agriculture con- through changes in production patterns in agriculture tributed more than 13 percent of total anthropogenic and also in forestry, where emissions often happen for greenhouse gas emissions in 2004 (Barker et al. 2007, agricultural purposes. 5). Emissions from fossil energy use in the agricultural sector are not included here, since IPCC accounts them 1.4.2 Scenarios of different climate futures with the building or transport sector, but they are estimated to be rather low compared to the CH4 and N2O Our response to climate change will be decisive for our emissions (Smith et al. 2007). Taken together with the planet‘s future. Taking into account the growing public forestry sector, where a large share of the emissions is perception of climate change as a matter of increasing caused by deforestation for agricultural purposes, this urgency, more and more heads of governments express figure is estimated to be over 30 percent (Barker et al. the willingness to act – but so far it is not clear how far 2008, 5). this moves beyond rhetoric.

32 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Figure 4: Four scenarios of the global climate future

Our Climate Future

Scenario A: Scenario B: Large-scale Experiment Climate Apartheid (with Elements with Mankind and Nature of a Climate Dictatorship) Unmitigated climate change Major concern of the industrialising and developing countries: serious climate protection limiting growth in developing countries

Scenario C: Scenario D: Global Climate Partnership Planet Earth on the Heart-Lung machine Combination of binding UN process, (geo-engineering) bi-/trilateral agreements, technologi- Self-regulating mechanisms of the earth collapse. Large- cal innovations, self-financing process scale technical measures of permanent adjustments; (auctioning emission trading etc.) significant sideeffects and potential for misuse.

Source: Germanwatch illustration

In order to facilitate the assessment of different futures IPCC scenario, which could easily lead to temperature that would develop from different global climate policy increases beyond 5°C, i.e. most severe of the projected approaches, Germanwatch developed a set of four sce- adverse impacts (Rahmstorf et al. 2007). narios (Figure 4). They provide a simple and intuitive overview of the variety of possible futures. The scenari- Scenario B, the so-called „climate apartheid“ scenario, os mainly differ in three aspects: First, in the magnitude can help explain why most developing countries remain of emission reductions envisaged, second in the degree unwilling to accept their own reduction commitments of equity that is reflected in the implied application of in the climate negotiations. The US has bound its own opportunities and risks related to climate protection, progress in emission reduction to comparable reduction adaptation and possible catastrophes, and finally in the efforts in rapidly developing country economies. These legitimacy of the applied measures and the participation countries fear that industrialized countries will not take of most most-affected countries. the lead in immediately reducing emissions but instead intend to deny the right of developing countries to end The first scenario (A) expects the continuation of the poverty and to develop through economic growth. current trend. Global emission trends show that unmiti- Why should they consider commitments as long as the gated climate change will result in a large-scale uncon- United States, whose per capita emissions are five times trolled experiment with mankind and nature. While as high as in China and twenty times as high as in India, some political speeches at climate negotiations such as are not willing to reduce drastically? Since the Industrial in Bali in December 2007 may create the impression Revolution, European and American progress has been that the problem of climate change might be solved built on fossil energy sources such as coal, oil, and gas. soon, the development of global emissions however tells so far a different story. The current emissions pathway „And just when we – the Chinese and the is therefore at the upper end of the most energy intense Indians – are about to develop they say: You

33 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS cannot do that anymore,“ Armatya Sen points these options have not been published“ (IPCC out, Indian Nobel Prize winner for economics 2007c, 20). (Germanwatch 2007). These technological promises go hand in hand with the Although they promised in Kyoto in 1997, to take the hope that technical solutions might be available soon lead in this regard, the developed world has as yet failed and are less expensive than mitigation. Therefore, politi- to show how a wealth model that combines prosper- cians might begin to rely on them as an alternative to ity and development with the continuously decreasing reducing emissions. Next to the risk of unknown side burning of fossil fuels. effects, geo-engineering solutions also carry the risk of military misuse. Scenario C must be seen as the desirable result of international climate negotiations and complimentary bilat- These four scenarios show the current variety of possible eral actions, leading to a global partnership of climate positions in international climate diplomacy. It becomes protection and energy security. This must be based on obvious that a meaningful path to emission reductions a substantial commitment by industrialized countries to is only available with an international framework as the take stronger domestic mitigation action (mainly energy key pillar, where different actors contribute based on efficiency and renewable energies) and to support miti- their responsibilities and capabilities. The task of nego- gation and adaptation in developing countries. In addi- tiating such an agreement among almost 200 govern- tion complementary and fair contributions in the emerg- ments with the goal of limiting temperature increase to ing economies following the principle of common but well below 2°C is quite ambitious. So, additional negoti- differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities ations with key emitters and key affected countries can are needed. Furthermore, the inclusion of missing sec- play a complementary role. Judging the effectiveness of tors like international aviation and maritime transport domestic and international commitments will require and a regime to curb emissions from deforestation needs a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the proposed to be agreed upon. Additional bilateral agreements with instruments, and their consistency with the 2° limit are key actors, e.g. between the EU and China and India the crucial benchmark, as is the case for the recent EU will also have to play an important role. climate policy discussions. Table 2 shows how different choices for domestic mitigation in Annex I countries Scenario D is based on countries‘ and expert views that and mitigation achieved through offsetting emissions look to geo-engineering solutions for the rapidly grow- through carbon credits from developing countries might ing global emissions. Often, they do not trust or believe impact on global temperature increase. Only strong do- in the slow political processes of climate negotiations. mestic action in developed countries plus support for Proposals are made to use technical means of geo-en- mitigation in developing countries allows a pathway to gineering to take control of the Earth‘s self-regulating stay below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. systems, such as depositing iron in the oceans, spreading reflective material in the atmosphere, or using other reflection systems. The latest IPCC report is very skepti- 1.5 Adaptation to the unavoidable cal about such promises: consequences

„Geo-engineering options, such as ocean fertili- Along with the effort to limit increasing emissions, the zation to remove CO2 directly from the atmos- second pillar of climate change policy is adaptation to phere, or blocking sunlight by bringing material changing climatic conditions. Adaptation measures were into the upper atmosphere, remain largely spec- not at the centre of climate negotiations in the first few ulative and unproven, and with the risk of un- years. They were often seen as a road to distract atten- known side-effects. Reliable cost estimates for tion from the most difficult and politically controversial

34 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Table 2: EU emission reduction proposals and its implications for global temperature increase

CO2-eq concen- Global mean tem- Annex I reduc- Non-Annex I 2020 EU post 2012 package pro- tration (ppm) perature increase tion by 2020 posals extrapolated to other above pre-indus- Annex I countries trial levels

445-490 2.0-2.4 -25 to -40% Substantial deviation -30% domestic + 850 Mt CO2-eq from baseline in Latin support for GHG emissions limita- America, Middle East, tion in non Annex I East Asia and centrally- planned Asia 490-535 2.4-2.8 n.a. n.a. -30% + off-setting (meaning 22% domestic and around 450 Mt off-setting in non- Annex I per annum) 535-590 2.8-3.2 -10% to 30% Deviation from base- -20% + off-setting line in Latin America, (meaning 17% domestic and Middle East, East Asia around 200 Mt off-setting in non- Annex I per annum) 590-710 3.2-4.0 0 to -25% Baseline -20% + more flexibility than Euro- pean Commission proposal (meaning less than 15% domestic)

Source: CAN 2008, based on Smith et al. 2007, Annex I: developed countries (according to the Annex I to the UNFCCC), Non-Annex I: developing countries, Mt: Million tonnes (Megatonnes)

task of reducing emissions, particularly in countries that cal administrations etc, is of utmost importance and will have contributed most to climate change. Since then, require resources. Empowerment of local communities it has become clear that the additional benefits of ad- is often more effective than huge technical solutions. aptation to climate change will be huge and that early action is cheaper than a post-disaster response, even Adaptation to the adverse impacts of climate change though there are still many uncertainties in the existing has long been neglected as a development issue, both adaptation cost estimates (see Table 3). A more detailed by governmental and nongovernmental organisations, analysis of the economics of adaptation is provided in despite the fact that the developing countries in 2001 chapter 6.

Adaptation requires substantive investment in infra- Table 3: Additional costs of adaptation in structure such as dams, flood-resistant storage facilities, developing countries and techniques for reducing water loss in distribution systems etc. It requires monitoring weather extremes Source Annual cost estimate and developing disaster preparation and early warning Oxfam 2007 At least 50 billion USD strategies. Last but not least, capacity building in com- UNDP 2007 86 billion USD by 2015 munities particularly at risk, in national, regional and lo- UNFCCC 2007a 28-67 billion USD by 2030

35 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS – and even much earlier – were already identified as er events on countries grouped to their development being the most affected by climate change: status. Although the absolute damage costs of weather extremes are usually higher in developed countries, the „The impacts of climate change will fall dispro- picture changes significantly if relative impacts are taken portionately upon developing countries and the into account. This is only one indicator among several poor persons within all countries, and thereby which imply the particular affectedness of developing exacerbate inequities in health status and ac- countries. cess to adequate food, clean water, and other resources. Populations in developing countries Developing countries are particularly affected due to are generally exposed to relatively high risks of their geographic location and because the sectors which adverse impacts from climate change. In ad- are among the most sensitive sectors to climate change dition, poverty and other factors create condi- like agriculture, forestry and fisheries, play a particularly tions of low adaptive capacity in most develop- important role in their economies. Nevertheless, effects ing countries“ (IPCC 2001, 12). of climate change vary from country to country and must be assessed nationally or regionally. Changes in weather patterns are already happening and are affecting countries worldwide. Figure 5 below The definition of vulnerability used by the IPCC is fo- shows an analysis of relative impacts of extreme weath- cusing on the vulnerability of systems.

Figure 5: Relative impacts of extreme weather events in 2006 according to World Bank country groupings

0,6

0,5

0,4 High income Upper middle income 0,3 Lower middle income low income 0,2

0,1

0 Deaths per 100,000 Losses per unit GDP inhabitants in %

Source: Harmeling 2007, 17

36 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Figure 6: Elements of vulnerability profiles

Adaptive capacity

Biophysical vulnerability Climate sensitive (e.g. precipitation Climate change soil degradation dependence and dryness) vulnerability groundwater availability

Social vulnerability agricultural workers and labourers literacy gender discrimination Trade sensitive (e.g. port distance, child mortality and fertility import-sensitive crops) Globalisation vulnerability Technological vulnerability irrigation infrastructure

Source: based on TERI 2003

„Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is In this sense and that is the focus of this study, vulner- susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse ability and adaptation to climate change entail a human effects of climate change, including climate var- rights dimension. Climate change is a process that will iability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function impact human beings and their livelihoods. They might of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate lose water, food-producing resources or access to these change and variation to which a system is ex- sources. posed, the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of that system” (Parry et al. 2007, 6). They might also lose access to or be hindered to achieve an income which secures their right to food or health. The term system is used in relation to ecosystems, but Thus, they will have to play an important role in re- can also refer to production or societal systems. The sponse strategies that governments design to react to overall vulnerability of agricultural production systems the challenges arising from climate change (see chapter to external stressors, including climate change risks and 2). their adaptive capacities, depend on different specific vulnerabilities (see Figure 6). The design and proper implementation of adaptation measures will become an area of work central to cop- Particularly in the food sector, the interdependence of ing with potential impacts of climate change. Numerous these vulnerabilities has to be taken into account. E.g. concrete adaptation options exist on different levels, in- globalization impacts may also help increasing the ca- cluding the agricultural sector (chapter 4 to 6). Some pacities to adapt to climate change. Climate change options are of a more technological nature while others is now increasingly an additional factor which might require more specific policy approaches. prevent vulnerable people from securing their rights to livelihoods, food security, access to clean water, human Adaptation will require assessment and monitoring security etc. and thus negatively impact on their adap- work, research, and an adequate policy response. In tive capacities. most cases, the design must address the need for close

37 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS integration with general development work in order to work became the second building block of international avoid stand-alone processes and to deliver adaptive de- climate negotiations for a post-2012 agreement in Bali. velopment. The two enabling building blocks (technology and finance) address adaptation as well as mitigation. The FAO has developed a useful systematization of adaptation measures with respect to food security. In Because many countries will have to cope with severe their contribution to the Bali Climate Conference in impacts of climate change in the future, developing December 2007, the FAO differentiated five different countries demanded that industrialized countries offer areas of adaptation policies in the context of food secu- massive support for adaptation measures in the most rity (FAO 2007b, 4ff): affected states and regions, while simultaneously increasing their mitigation efforts to limit global warming. 1. Adaptation policies: Adaptation measures will first According to the Bali Action Plan, those countries iden- cover a broad range of actions, from policies oriented tified as particularly vulnerable are the Least Developed to manage risks posed by climate change to policies pro- Countries, Small Island Developing States, and coun- tecting people‘s lives and livelihoods. tries in Africa affected by drought, desertification and floods (UNFCCC 2007b, 2). Under the current funding 2. Response to local circumstances: Second, they cover mechanisms, less than 1 percent of the estimated neces- the response to local environmental circumstances and sary adaptation costs have been delivered: needs, based on different livelihood circumstances. It will be important that development strategies rely not Investments through integration of adaptation in only on national, but also on community-level responses Official Development Assistance: approx. USD 100 mil- to the risk exposure of different ecosystems. lion for five years (UNFCCC 2007a);

3. Secure food supplies: A third set of measures will be Funds under the Convention: approx. USD 73 oriented to secure food supplies by helping avoid disrup- million (pledged: 90 million) for the Special Climate tions or declines in global, national, or local food sup- Change Fund (SCCF) and USD 92 million for the Least plies. Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) (pledged: 172 million) (Global Environment Facility GEF 2008); 4. Adjust consumption to health needs: At the fourth level, measures will adjust consumption and orient it to Global Environment Facility (GEF) Strategic Priority protect health. for Adaptation: USD 50 million (UNDP 2007).

5. Meet growing demands: Finally, adaptation policies After extensive debate in Bali and previous negotiations need to give answers as to how the growing demand the conference decided about the governance structure for energy can be met (in a climate-friendly way) as a of the Adaptation Fund (AF), which is supposed to be- prerequisite for growth and development. come a key funding instrument for action on adaptation. For the credibility of this instrument, it will be impor- The results from the Bali climate summit (2007) help tant that the needs of particularly vulnerable groups to put adaptation work and policies on equal footing and countries around the world will be adequately re- with the negotiations related to mitigation. The Bali flected. Action Plan was adopted to establish a roadmap for the negotiations on a new international climate treaty, Further negotiations on the Bali Action Plan will have which is supposed to enter into force in succession to to consider the need for international assistance to the the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol in most vulnerable countries in their adaptation efforts 2012 (UNFCCC 2007b, Decision 1/CP.13). Adaptation through „innovative means of funding“ (UNFCCC

38 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS 2007b). Questions concerning access to „adequate, pre- The Adaptation Fund under the Kyoto Protocol dictable and sustainable financial resources“ as well as the exploration of new and additional resources will be The Adaptation Fund has many innovative features. debated until the end of 2009 when the adoption of a For example, resources for the AF are being mobilized new international climate treaty is being envisaged at through a levy on emission reductions generated and the UN climate conference in Copenhagen.4 There is traded under the Clean Development Mechanism little doubt that significantly increased adaptation fund- (CDM). The CDM is the first international environ- ing will play a key role in these negotiations. The Bonn mental levy imposed on the trading of emission re- negotiation session in June 2008 was the first incident ductions achieved in developing countries. The fund that Parties are beginning to take these questions more is other than some voluntary funds under the UN- seriously (Harmeling 2008). A number of interesting Framework Convention the first concrete step to con- funding proposals were put on the table. struct a reliable international finance structure needed to deal adequately with the consequences of climate Substantial additional financial resources are needed to change. Depending on how the CDM market will de- cope with the expected adaptation needs for developing velop, it is estimated that the resources generated will countries. However, more money does not necessarily amount to some 150 to 900 million USD by 2012, mean that more funds are reaching the most vulner- and probably much more after 2012, depending on able groups. This is one reason why the UNFCCC ne- developed countries mitigation targets and the future gotiations must discuss which frameworks can incen- of the CDM (UNDP 2007). In 2008, the Adaptation tivize adaptation, but also which frameworks measure Fund Board, the newly appointed governing body, will progress, review activities, and generate resources. have to agree on funding modalities including prioriti- zation for the most vulnerable countries. Those groups which are already marginalized rarely receive adequate attention in national or regional policies. which analyses the connection between climate change More attention and policy innovation must be devoted and human development, comes to an alarming result: to these groups in order to ensure that marginalization is not reiterated or passed on in adaptation policies. „In the long run climate change is a massive Rights-based policy approaches offer good opportunities threat to human development and in some plac- to make policies more poverty-oriented. National poli- es it is already undermining the international cies also need to set up the right incentive structure for community‘s efforts to reduce extreme poverty“ community-based adaptation (CBA). (UNDP 2007, v).

The report highlights the fact that the world is a het- 1.6 Climate change and development erogeneous place, where people have unequal incomes and wealth, and that climate change will affect re- Climate change will have a substantial impact on the pace gions very differently. Therefore, adaptation to climate of development progress in many regions. Developing change will be relatively easy in regions with lesser ef- countries will need economic human development to fects and sufficient resources, whereas poorer regions, overcome current shortages of basic goods and services. with higher risks and vulnerability, will be disastrously The Human Development Report 2007/2008 of the affected. Existing income gaps might be increased and Development Program of the United Nations (UNDP), deepened.

4 For a discussion of the process leading to the Copenhagen climate summit (December 2009) and potential outcomes end of 2009 see Bals 2008.

39 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Figure 7: Climate change impacts and the Millennium Development Goals in Africa

Millennium The area suitable for agriculture, the length of growing seasons and yield Development potential, particularly along the margins of semi-arid and arid areas, are expected to decrease. This would further adversely affect food security Goals and exacerbate malnutrition in the continent.

In some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% by 2020. 1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Local food supplies are projected to be negatively affected by decreasing fisheries resources in large lakes due to rising water temperatures, which may be exacerbated by continued over-fishing. 3. Promote gender equality 70% of the extreme poor are women (globally) and thus these are extraor- and empower dinarily affected by CC; resource scarcity triggered by CC (food, water, fire women wood) increases burden for women.

4. Reduce child The decrease or increase of the range and transmission potential of ma- mortality; laria in Africa.

5. Improve maternal  health; By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to an increase of water stress due to climate change. 6. Combat HIV/AIDS, ma-  laria and other diseases Projected sea-level rise will affect low-lying coastal areas with large populations. The cost of adaptation could amount to at least 5-10% of GDP.

7. Ensure environmental  Mangroves and coral reefs are projected to be further degraded, with sustainability. additional consequences for fisheries and tourism.

Source: Germanwatch illustration based on IPCC 2007b

Africa‘s variable climate is already contributing signifi- hoods and many will be at the fringe of their coping ca- cantly to its development problems (Hellmuth et al. pacities. They will have severe difficulties to dealing with 2007, 8). Key factors for the development of agriculture, weather extremes and other shocks. Poverty-stricken a very important sector in African economies, such as people who never contributed to climate change are water, energy, transportation and health, are all particu- most at risk to be heavily affected by climate change. larly sensitive to climate variability and the increase of Their right to development will be seriously threatened. weather-related disasters. Other sectors of the economy, The process of human development is increasingly go- like industry and tourism, are also put at high risk by cli- ing to be influenced or hindered by climate change. mate change and water shortages. Vulnerability of econ- The fight against poverty and the fight against the ef- omies to climate shocks is unequally distributed, and fects of climate change must be seen as interrelated is- the risk increases dramatically as poverty increases. sues. Figure 7 shows that climate change is expected to substantially impact the realization of most Millennium „Some 262 million people were affected by cli- Development Goals (MDGs) in Africa. In addition, in- mate disasters annually from 2000 to 2004, over vestments in adaptation will require financial resources, 98 percent of them in the developing world“ which in turn would bind resources needed to invest in (UNDP 2007, 16). poverty reduction. The additional challenge of climate change thus requires additional resources. The Human It will be poorer people who will suffer most. They will Development Report (HDR) 2007/2008 summarizes be confronted with substantive changes in their liveli- the challenge quite well:

40 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS „How the world deals with climate change today will have a direct bearing on the human development prospects of a large section of humanity. Failure will consign the poorest 40 percent of the world‘s population – some 2.6 billion people – to a future of diminished opportunities. It will exacerbate deep inequalities within countries. And it will undermine efforts to build a more including pattern of globalization, reinforcing the vast disparities between the ‚haves´ and the ‚have nots´“ (UNDP 2007, 8).

The recent rounds of climate negotiations after Bali – in March/April 2008 in Bangkok and in June 2008 in Bonn – have shown that the costs of adaptation and present underfunding by the perpetuators of climate change remain a key contentious issue. This is true despite the goodwill of many developing countries to work jointly on developing a new climate regime. Most developing countries have hardly contributed to the emissions which cause climate change, and see domestic emissions reduction as a hindrance to development. They see this as a justice issue. If such development rights are taken seriously, industrialized countries must invest in mitigation and reduce emissions more substantially. They will also have to finance and support deployment mechanisms for mitigation and adaptation technologies and make these technologies widely available.

At the same time, developing countries need to realize that climate change is a development issue, and thus the challenge has to be integrated into development policies and planning (chapter 4.4)

41 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS 2 Trends and developments in The implementation strategies required to achieve food food insecurity and hunger security may need to change over time in order to address new threats or barriers.

In order to properly assess the possible impact of climate The term food security was first developed within the change on food security, it is helpful to first start with context of UN-specialized agencies dealing with food an assessment of the worldwide situation concerning and nutrition (FAO 1983a). It was developed to discuss food security and hunger. Such an overview allows the long term trends in food availability at the global level. analysis of if and how societies, which are facing hunger The question of worldwide availability of surplus prod- and malnutrition today, will be additionally affected by ucts and the storage of food reserves was at the core of climate change. This overview will also explore the risk the discussion. Therefore, global food security is based of additional groups becoming exposed to food insecu- on the comparison between how much food can be pro- rity and hunger as a result of climate change. duced globally and the expected demand.

It soon became clear that measures at the national level 2.1 Three levels of food security are essential in order to secure enough food supplies. definition: global, national, and The Plan of Action of the FAO for World Food Security, household food security which was adopted in 1979, therefore introduced the term „national food security“ (FAO 1979). This expres- The term food security has been revised many times sion was used to describe ways of achieving a better since the phrase‘s inception in the late 1970s. For a long national distribution of food. Within the framework of time, many definitions of the term were used in parallel. national food security, aspects such as grain reserves, The most widely accepted and authoritative definition import and export quotas, food aid, agricultural tech- is the one agreed upon during the World Food Summit niques to increase production, and irrigation were dis- in 1996: cussed. These notions of food security were focused on the availability of sufficient food supplies in national „Food security exists when all people, at all markets and on population/food availability ratios. times, have physical and economic access to These notions strategically lead to the support for poli- safe and nutritious food which meets their di- cies focusing on production increases. etary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life“ (FAO 1996, 1). But food security deficits can not be overcome by national level increases in food production alone. Deficits This is both the vision and definition of food security in national food production can also be overcome by im- used in the World Food Summit Plan of Action and on ports. These imports need to be financed, which could which the FAO co-ordinate „Food insecurity and vulner- be done through exporting other agricultural products. ability information mapping systems (FIVIMS)“.5 Hence, the World Bank developed recommendations for trade-based national food security strategies in the However, food security is largely the definition of a goal, 1980s (World Bank 1986). The advice was that devel- rather than a program with specific policy orientation. oping countries should concentrate agricultural produc-

5 FAO 1996: The definition is included in paragraph 1 of PoA. FIVIMS is a tool developed in response to the World Food Summit results. A technical consultation on Food Insecurity and Vulnerability Information and Mapping Systems (FIVIMS) was held at the FAO in March 1997. It recommended developing guidelines for the establishment of FIVIMS at the national level. The Guidelines were published in 2000: IAGW-FIVIMS (2000). Guidelines for national FIVIMS. Background and principles, Rome.

42 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS tion on those goods for which the highest prices can be healthy life”, used by FAO and by the World Bank in achieved on the market. Often these were cash crops 1986 (quoted from: Eide et al. 1991). and not food crops, because world market prices for most food products from temperate climates were very In academic literature, the determinants of food secu- low during the last decades. This result can be attrib- rity are described very similarly to the definition of the uted to high agricultural surpluses in the EU and the US right to food. Haddad and Gillespie collect the following as well as the regular use of export subsidies. determinants in their article: physical access at national level, physical access at local level, economic access, so- Export subsidies amounted to close to 40 percent of cial access, food quality and safety, physiological access, the EU-agriculture budget in the 80s and beginning of risk of loss of access (Haddad and Gillespie 2001). the 90s. Due to the pressure from the agricultural negotiations at the WTO the EU started to reduce export The latest standard definition used in the FAO is quite subsidies. Today they are about 1,44 billion Euro only similar: a fraction of their former size. Current price trends on the word markets are reversed, but there are a variety „Food security exists when all people at all of reasons for that recent change in price trends (http:// times have physical or economic access to suf- www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/exportsubventionen2. ficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their html). dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. To achieve food security, all Even in the early 1980s it was questioned whether pro- four of its components must be adequate. These duction-oriented policies alone would be helpful in alle- are: availability, stability, accessibility and utili- viating hunger and malnutrition. Amartya Sen‘s seminal zation“ (FAO 2007b, 6; the second sentence is work on „Poverty and Famines“ brought considerable additional to the 1996 definition). change to the debate by highlighting the entitlements of individuals and groups as important elements to un- To achieve food security, access to food must be physi- derstand whether or not they get access to food (Sen cally available, e.g. food must be available in the region. 1981). But in order to guarantee that a family will have access to it, the food must be economically accessible, which The debate on food insecurity and hunger has changed is largely determined by family income. The food supply gradually since then from an analysis merely looking must also be stable, and shortfalls, e.g. in the months at overall availability of food to an analysis based on before the next harvest, avoided. an understanding of individual access (entitlement) to food. At the eighth Ministerial meeting of the World Hunger in rural areas, particularly among producers, is Food Council (WFC) in 1982 a decision was passed often a seasonal phenomenon. Many poorer producers with the title „food security for people“ (World Food have to buy the seeds and other agricultural inputs be- Council 1982). In 1983 the Council of the FAO and the fore the plant. Therefore, the month before the next WFC followed up with the recommendation for a new harvest is due is often the worst concerning the family definition of food security including the access of the food security situation. The leftover food from the last individual to food (WFC 1983). Since then, the concept harvest has already been eaten and the familiy’s new of household and later individual food security has been income will only be secured after the new harvest. developed, making the term food security increasingly comprehensive (Eide, Oshaug and Eide 1991). Additionally, food security depends on a variety of underlying determinants: Food must be nutritious and The definition in the middle of the 80s was “access by safe. The body must be in a condition to consume food people at all times to enough food for an active and without becoming ill. UNICEF and other nutritionists

43 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS emphasize the fact that half of the children dying from duction, storage and processing, distribution, exchange, hunger are not dying because of missing food supply, preparation, and consumption, must be analyzed be- but because they cannot ingest due to sickness, e.g. di- cause of its influence on the development of income, arrhea (Eide 2000). prices, and the availability of food.

To analyze the impact of climate change on food secu- „The food system is a set of dynamic interac- rity, it is important to study all three levels of food se- tions between and within the bio-geophysical curity: and human environments that influences both activities and outcomes all along the food chain“ 1. Food security on a global scale: It is important to ana- (FAO 2007b, 6). lyze overall trends on a global scale and to understand which effects climate change might have on agricultural Food security can therefore be seen as an outcome of production, fishery production, and livestock produc- the performance of the food system at the national level tion at the global level. This is important because these and the relevant international framework conditions trends will translate into agricultural prices and will in- (Figure 8). Bio-geophysical trends like those discussed fluence decisions of producers worldwide. in the climate change debate play an important role, but the human response and the political management of 2. Food security on a national level: This level of analy- these trends are also decisive for the potential affects. sis is equally as important, because the national level is where most agricultural policy decisions are made. It will be decided here if food security concerns are cov- 2.2 Who are the hungry today ered by imports and how much financial resources are made available for national agricultural policies. Central Around 80 percent of the hungry live in rural areas; half elements of adaptation policies will be defined at the of them are small-holder peasants, another 22 percent national level. are landless laborers, and 8 percent are hunter-gatherers, fishers, and pastoralists. This situation is expected 3. Food security on a household level: Without a de- to persist. tailed look at the impacts at the household level, the analysis would lack an understanding of the difficulties While the urban poor are the fastest increasing group and specific necessities each person faces in regard to of food insecure people, more than 50 percent of the food security. This knowledge is crucial in designing hungry are projected to live in rural areas in 2050 (FAO adequate adaptation policies that support those groups, 2005). The majority of these groups live on extremely particularly marginal producers and vulnerable consum- marginal conditions. They often live in remote geo- ers, which are most likely to become food insecure. All graphical locations, in ecological vulnerable areas, or on three levels of the food security definition will be taken slopes or drought prone areas/rainforest etc. They have into consideration in the following study. difficulties accessing means of transport, such as roads, and thus to markets where they can sell their goods. In this context, the most relevant level for explanation Most have limited or no adequate access to extension of the impact of climate change on food insecurity will services, credits or insurance mechanisms. be the household level. As long as there is no global food shortage, the income of the household is the key Absence of land reform forces poor and marginal farm- determinant for whether or not a family becomes food ing households to use land highly exposed to catastro- insecure. Production and consumption-related aspects phes like floods or droughts. Usually, they are also politi- are not the only important determinants of food secu- cally marginalized, without an important voice in local rity. The whole food chain, including input factors, pro- or national politics.

44 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Figure 8: Interaction of determinants for food security

Food system ACTIVITIES Producing food: natural resources, inputs, techology ... Processing and packaging food: raw materials, standards, storage life ... Distributing and retailling food: transport, marketing, advertising ... consuming food: acquisition, preparation, socializing ...

Food system OUTCOMES contributing to:

Social welfare: Food UTILIZATION Food UTILIZATION Environmental security/ natural capital  Income  Nutritional value  Nutritional value  Ecosystems stocks,  Employment  Social value  Social value flows  Wealth  Food Safety  Food Safety  Ecosystem services  Social and political capital Food UTILIZATION  Access to natural  Human capital  Nutritional value capital

 Social value

 Food Safety

Source: http://www.gecafs.org/glossary/index.html

According to FAO figures, more than 850 million peo- absolute shortages (chapters 2.4 and 5.1). It will be one ple are facing hunger and malnutrition. 815 million of of the decisive factors to overcome this marginalization, them are living in economically developing countries – in order to reduce the number of hungry people world- 76 percent of whom live in rural areas (FAO 2006, 69). wide. National and international agricultural policies In this connection, a word of caution on the available have often forced marginalized populations to migrate data on hunger and malnutrition: All hunger figures are to risk-prone areas. It would be irresponsible and im- estimations with quite a degree of uncertainty, but the practical to focus more resources towards combating ca- allow to identify trends and know the share of certain tastrophes instead of addressing underlying land access vulnerable groups. problems. A better approach would be to combat the marginalization of affected communities and people – All available data and studies show that the number of this would also increase the resilience towards natural hungry and malnourished has not decreased in the last disasters. decade, even though enough food is produced globally to satisfy the needs of the world‘s population. Hunger The World Food Summit (WFS) in 1996 committed and malnutrition today are not caused by food short- to halving the number of hungry people by 2015. The ages or scarcity. Hunger is currently an issue of access to persistence of the problem can be observed, when we food, an adequate income, or productive resources that see that at the World Food Summit in 1974 govern- allow poor people either to produce or to buy enough ment representatives declared that in ten more years food. Thus, the inequitable distribution of food, land, “no child will have to go to bed hungry”. This goal was and other productive resources, as well as missing in- later integrated into the first Millennium Development come are decisive factors for hunger and malnutrition. Goal (MDG) set by the General Assembly of the United It will be discussed later if food surplus is going to be a Nations in 2000, although it was modified at that oc- continuing state, or if the world will increasingly face casion. The MDG Goals demand the reduction of the

45 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Table 4: Typology of hunger

Food-producing households in higher-risk environments roughly 50% of the hungry and remote areas Non-farm rural households 22% of the hungry Poor urban households 20% of the hungry Herders, fishers and forest-dependent households 8% of the hungry

Vulnerable Individuals Vulnerable pregnant and nursing women and their infants, pre-school children, chronically ill or disabled Affected people of extreme events ca. 60 million HIV-related food insecurity Number of food-insecure households with adults or children affected by HIV: ca. 150 million

Source: UN Millennium Project/UNDP 2003

share of the hungry up to 2015 compared to 1990, undernourished people. No process has been reached in while the WFS was demanding the reduction of the reducing the total number since the WFS in 1996. FAO number of the hungry. Due to the fact that the world itself argued that the situation was caused by a lack of population is increasing, the MDG contains a softer re- investment and a „lack of political will“ to implement duction target, because of the number of hungry needs policies that would reduce hunger. The financial means to be reducted to circa 600 Million people to achieve needed to close this implementation gap are estimated the goal, while the WFS goal demands a reduction to to be around USD 24 billion (FAO 2002, 3). 400 Million people. A 2006 analysis by the FAO showed that the world is At the World Food Summit five years later in June 2002, still not on track to meet neither the goals of the World it became clear that this goal would not be achieved Food Summit nor the weaker Millennium Development unless substantial policy changes were to take place. Goal (MDG) target (Figure 9). Officially the FAO estimated before the WFS that the number of hungry people was reducted by six million A comprehensive review of the status of hunger and a year between 1996 and 2002. It was already at the malnutrition has been provided in United Nations re- summit doubtfull if the figures were reliable, due to the ports presented by the Millennium Project. This group fact that the numbers are based on a reduction of hungry of experts was assembled by the Secretary General to people in China, while at the same time the number of give recommendations on how to implement the first hungry people has increased in many other countries. MDG and halve the number of hungry and malnourished people by 2015.6 Current estimates say that more In between the FAO had to adjust the figures again to a than 75 percent of the world‘s poorest people live in number higher than 840 million. In October 2008 the rural areas and depend mainly or partially on agricul- FAO estimated that in 2007 the world had 923 million ture for their livelihoods. The report also highlights that

6 The first report of the hunger task force of the Millennium Project developed a typologie of the hungry worldwide. It was published in New York, April 2003. See also the excellent overview in IFAD 2001.

46 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Figure 9: Number of undernourished people in the developing world

Source: FAO 2006, 5

natural and man-made catastrophes, which often trig- South, has been industrial agriculture, livestock produc- ger the need for food aid, are currently responsible for tion, and commercial fisheries. The need of smallholder around 10 percent of all hungry and malnourished peo- farmers, pastoralists, and fisher folk to secure access to ple in the world. 90 percent of the hungry suffer from productive resources is often overlooked. chronic malnutrition. Most undernourished people live in India and China. Half of the world‘s hungry people are smallholder farm- In India, more people suffer from malnutrition than in ers who live off a limited area of land and without ad- sub-Saharan Africa as a whole (Figure 10). In the early equate access to productive resources. Two thirds of 1990s, there was progress being made to reduce these these people live on marginal lands in environmentally numbers in Asia and the Pacific, but that trend seems difficult conditions. Examples of such areas are hillsides to have reversed. or areas threatened by drought or other natural disasters like flooding or mud slides etc. Moreover, 22 percent of However, since population growth in most regions is the hungry are landless families, who often subsist on larger than the increase in the number of the under- income obtained under precarious working conditions nourished, most regions see slight progress towards the as landless laborers. Additionally, 8 percent of hungry Millennium Development Goal of halving the percent- and malnourished people are found in fishing, hunting age of undernourished people. Still, this result occurs at and herding communities. too slow a pace to reach the 2015 goals (UN 2007).

Secure access to productive resources – land, water, and There are a number of myths and assumptions why hun- agricultural inputs like seeds and livestock breeds etc. – ger and malnutrition exist in a world of plenty. Many of is the key to improving the situations of these families. these postulations refer to natural disasters and conflict. Such processes are exacerbated by the fact that the driv- Environmental factors such as unreliable rain, storms ing force of food and agricultural policies of many coun- and drought are often considered to be the main rea- tries, in the industrialized North as well as the global sons behind famine and hunger. Complex political situa-

47 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Figure 10: Regional distribution of undernourished people

Source: FAO 2006, 8, 9

tions, such as conflicts and civil war, are also thought to rural areas to be reduced substantially – often by more contribute.7 According to the UN Millennium Project, than 50 percent (FAO 2003). The same happened with around 60 million people are affected by civil strife and bi- and multilateral aid budgets. According to FAO fig- insecure political conditions (UN Millennium Project ures, the average budget of rural development in devel- 2005). Even though these explanations are indeed in- oping countries was reduced by 50 percent between the creasingly relevant, they address more the symptoms mid ‚80s and mid ‚90s. The same happened to bi- and that occur in situations where people are poor and vul- multilateral aid. The World Bank, for example, dropped nerable rather than the underlying causes. The reason its lending to these sectors from nearly USD 6 billion in why poor people are the most affected by natural disas- 1986 to USD 2.7 billion in 1996. Many reasons are giv- ters is due to their lack of reserves, power, and possibili- en for this decline: the inherent complexity, relatively ties, and thus their lack of control over resources. high transaction costs in agriculture and rural development projects (particularly with poor producers), aver- sions among bank staff and client to lend in those sec- 2.3 Marginalization of producers: tors, and the low effectiveness of institutions working a problem of development policies with these sectors in many countries (FAO 2001).

Given the crucial role of marginalization in the food se- Support for rural development and agricultural produc- curity debate, it is clear that agricultural and food pro- tion were judged as outmoded. Only recently, interna- duction problems cannot be tackled at the technical lev- tional organisations have begun to recognize that the el. The situation of the rural poor has been aggravated policy shift away from rural development policies was by the fact that rural areas were neglected in regional, at least too radical and the policies are now being re- national and international policy making. For a long versed. A decade of official work on poverty reduction time, the policy focus was on investments in industry without major results has lead to the realization that and urban infrastructure, causing budget allocations for policies aiming at effective poverty reduction have to

7 See e.g. the Global Information and Early Warning System on food and agriculture (GIEWS) of the FAO and its determination of countries in food crisis

48 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS address the needs of people in rural areas.8 The FAO is munities and those of pastoralists and fisher folk. As also arguing that the hope of the 1990s, that poverty international polices set binding conditions for national reduction will automatically lead to a decrease in the policies, it is the combination of national and interna- number of hungry and malnourished, can no longer be tional policy frameworks, along with local situations, justified. In fact, the opposite recognition – that hunger that together play a crucial role for the situation of these needs to be tackled first in order to address the prob- groups. lems of poverty – is gaining ground. The FAO and others have therefore promoted a twin-track approach which Structural adjustment policies, which have been imple- against the background of the recent food crisis aims mented in most developing countries since the middle of the 1980s, have influenced national agricultural poli- „at (i) alleviating the impacts of high food and cies to a large degree. These policies were built around fuel prices on the weakest population groups what the World Bank referred to as a „trade-based food through direct transfers and safety nets, while security“ policy package. Agricultural support was ori- (ii) implementing policies and programs to pro- ented towards fostering agricultural production for ex- mote agricultural and rural development both in ports in order to increase income in hard currencies, the short and long run“ (FAO 2008a, 16). which should help to finance the import of staple foods. Such policy recommendations often support the nation- In many developing countries agriculture is taxed, and al bias against small holder production. This approach support services are poorly equipped as described in the leads to a concentration in means available for agricul- 2008 World Development Report (World Bank 2008). ture and rural development concentrated in few sectors Agricultural research is directed only towards commer- of export production. The later-developed instruments cial crops. However, other negative framework condi- of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund tions such as insecure land titles, problems with access (IMF), the Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs), to credit or capital, insurance etc often prevail. The result were created with the aim to direct policy processes for is that even if smallholders do have access to some land, highly indebted countries; however they seldom take they must endure poor conditions, lacking support and agriculture and rural development properly on board adequate economic frameworks. Governments seldom (SLE 2002). International policy advice was therefore pay enough attention to these sectors and do not im- rarely supportive to small-holder agriculture and rural plement their human rights obligations to these groups. development. It was only recently that several bilateral The recently published report of the „International and multilateral donors started a newly created „Global Assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology for Donor Platform on Rural Development“ (GDPRD). The Development“ IAASTD, is highlighting the potential GDPRD held its second international conference in June positive effects, when small holder farmers would get 2007 in Berlin. The group was also influential in the sufficient governmental support. The IAASTD has been preparation of the World Development Report (WDR) established at the Johannesburg Summit in 2002 and is 2008 and it was established as a network for donor a network set up in a similar way as the IPCC of cur- harmonization in the area of rural development. This rently up to 400 researchers. The report of the IAASTD is finally again focusing on agricultural issues including can be downloaded from their official web-site: www. development (World Bank 2007). agessessment.org. At the same time international trade policy rules be- International policy conditions also have an important came increasingly binding for many countries when the impact on marginal rural smallholder farmers‘ com- World Trade Organization (WTO) was created in 1995,

8 The importance is reflected in the IFAD analyses for rural development in 2001

49 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS particularly since they not only set the terms for tar- problems such as soil erosion, over-exploitation of soil iffs, but also are signed as agreements that set stringent fertility, or deforestation. But at the same time, they have conditions and regulations for national policies. From been the main custodians of the environment for millen- food safety regulations to geographical indications and nia. The diversity of sustainable uses of land, soil, water, intellectual property, from agricultural subsidies to price forest, and genetic resources such as seeds and livestock support for basic staple foods, the WTO regulations are breeds, represents the careful work and knowledge of still deeply affecting national policy frameworks. One many generations of rural and indigenous peoples. of the bigger problems linked to the WTO Agreement Important environmental threats in global agricultural on Agriculture (AoA) is the imbalance in the level of production often come from the process of industriali- liberalization obligations for different groups of coun- zation of production patterns often in more favorable tries. While developing countries have opened up their areas. The overuse of water resources, the loss of soil markets during the last fifteen years, their smallholder through erosion and salinisation, the loss of agricultural farmers still have to compete with subsidized produc- biodiversity through the destruction of agro-ecosystems, tion and subsidies exports from industrialized countries. intensive animal production patterns, and over-fishing Because poor countries are not able to pay subsidies to are all at least partly results of the open world market their farmers and are forced to remove trade barriers, that does not internalize these externalities and has put hardly any agricultural policy instrument prevails in enormous pressure on producing as cheaply as possible these countries (see FAO 2005, chap. 3). At the same (see also IAASTD 2008). time, industrialized countries are still paying subsidies to the farm sector, even though the bulk of it does not Large-scale industrial Trans-National Corporations reach smallholder farmers, but rather goes to agribusi- (TNCs) are also exerting increased control over differ- nesses and the grain trading companies. OECD figures ent parts of the food system, its markets and worldwide estimate that still around 300 billion US-Dollers are food production. The input-sectors for food production payed as subsidies to agriculture producers in industrial- are undergoing rapid concentration (see Hines 2003). ized countries. The export susidies went down during Many traditional seed producing companies have been the last decade linked to the WTO-agricultural negotia- bought by agrochemical companies or oil-companies. tions (see Dewbre, Thompson and Dewbre 2007). Intellectual Property Rights systems (IPRs) are promoted that provide monopoly privileges over what was once Furthermore, the industrialization of agriculture is common property and thus facilitate the control over contributing to the trend which leads to a consolida- genetic material/life forms such as seeds and livestock tion of agricultural land and assets in the hands of big breeds. The IPR agreements are also an obstacle to the landowners, agribusiness, and other large commercial spread of knowledge and technology among smallhold- entities. The most fertile and extensive areas of land re- er farmers and their access to seeds and livestock breeds main in the hands of a decreasing number of producers, (see Liebig 2005). They can hinder access to seeds farm- and in many countries smallholders are being excluded ers will need to adapt to climate change. The WTO‘s and forced onto unproductive or „low potential“ land Agreement on Trade Related aspects of Intellectual (IAASTD 2008). Moreover, reduced resources and in- Property rights (TRIPs) requires all members of the creased poverty force smallholders in many places to WTO to implement plant variety protection legislation, cultivate the land more intensively and to abandon more through patents or other IPR systems, at the same level environmentally sustainable agricultural methods. as the most developed countries.

However, it would be wrong to conclude that it is small- The process of concentration is also visible in other in- holders that constitute the main threat to the environ- put sectors for agriculture, such as the production of ment. Obviously smallholder farmers, pastoralists and pesticides, as well as in the food trade and the food- fisher folk can be responsible for causing environmental processing industry. All global transactions in cereals

50 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS and soybeans are controlled by a few companies. The gional level is the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture same is true for other important international crops, Development Programmed (CAADP), a document de- such as tropical export crops like bananas, pineapples, veloped by the New Partnership initiative of the African coffee and cocoa etc. The strongest pressure on prices Union for African Development (NEPAD). The head comes from international food processing industries (see of states committed themselves to invest at least ten e.g. UK Food Group 2003). It is not just at the input end percent of the national budgets for rural development of agriculture that corporate dominance prevails. Over (NEPAD 2002). the last two decades TNCs have increased their market domination of the processing and retailing of food. There seems to be a common understanding and a re- Smallholder farmers able to produce enough to trade newed recognition among many actors, from civil so- are now facing an ever-harder struggle to exert any in- ciety up to the World Bank, of the importance of rural fluence over the farm inputs they need, the farm-gate development in the combat against poverty. Yet there price for their produce, and the terms and conditions is no consensus on the specific policies that should get of its trade. the most attention when fostering rural development and deciding how to spend the money. The title of the Local and national markets are currently becoming more World Development Report already shows that conflict. dominated by retail chains even in poorer countries in The World Bank finally decided not to use „rural de- Africa. The „supermarketization“ will make it more velopment“ but instead „agricultural development“ as difficult for poor smallholder farmers to sell products. the title for the World Development Report, because it Local markets are changing fast to supermarkets and focuses its strategy more on those farmers who have supermarkets buy – when they buy regional products the potential to be integrated into global markets and to at all – standardized products with a uniform quality. use agricultural development perspectives. The report Smallholder farmers can seldom produce at such stand- develops an understanding that the rural world can be ards. A result of that process will be a separation among distinguished into “three different worlds“ that needs rural producers into those who have enough capital and different policy treatment (World Bank 2007). skill to integrate into the global food market and the large majority of small holder units without sufficient 1. The first group covers those agricultural producers resources to do so. New approaches to empower farm- with products that have the potential and the assets to ers and re-localize food systems are needed. In Europe, be integrated in the global markets. They can produce at where TNC dominance of food retailing has been an is- competitive prices and internationally-accepted quality sue for some time, there are already a number of farmer- standards, and the products can be sold in supermar- based initiatives including farmers‘ markets, Fair-trade, kets. The report argues that they should get all support farm retail, box schemes that help to „localize“ food possible to be successfully integrated into global mar- systems and empower smallholder farmers (e.g. Sustain kets. 2003). 2. The second group are the subsistence farmers that Overall, it is recognized that rural development deserves have a certain security in access to productive resources much more attention than it did during the last decades. and the necessary skills to use them. They should be sup- There are many signs that the issue will get more at- ported in improving subsistence agriculture. Moreover, tention in the future than in the past. The most visible when needed their income should be lifted by cash sign at the international level is the World Development transfers, in order to bring them out of poverty. Report 2008, which is demanding a refocusing of development aid to agriculture and the creation of the 3. The third group are marginal farmers with very lim- Global Donor Platform on rural development (World ited assets. For these groups the Word Development Bank 2007). The most important document at the re- Report recommends leaving the country side, migrating

51 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Figure 11: Monthly FAO price indices for basic food commodity groups (1998-2000=100)

Source: FAO 2008a, 3

to the cities and sending back remittances from work in livelihood security are not available on a short term ba- order to help the village to develop. sis. Necessary structural change will require a long period of adaptation (see the positionpaper of NGOs “The While the report makes a lot of proposals for how to im- Role of Agriculture and Rural Development in Poverty prove spending in rural areas, it gives up on larger groups Reduction”). It was the World Bank director, Robert among the marginalized rural producers. Unfortunately, Zoellick, who recently and for the first time started to the report does not explain which alternative jobs are talk about the redirection of development aid to rural available for them in cities and what consequences new areas. In a press statement related to the fast increase trends on world agricultural markets and rising food of World Market Prices, he demanded that a new ap- prices would have for them (see chapter 2.4). It also proach be needed, focusing less on supply and access to does not look at the question of how this strategy might food and more on competing usage of food and issues influence greenhouse gas development, as the emis- such as the marginalization of female producers or oth- sions of town citizens are usually much higher than er groups in rural livelihoods (World Bank 2008). This rural smallholders. might only be the start of the necessary debate about necessary consequences of new trends in the markets How can rural, disadvantaged smallholders be best sup- for agricultural commodities. ported? This question is in the center of the current debate about rural development. The World Bank‘s model is generally market-oriented, while NGO and 2.4 Trends on world agricultural CSO which met in June 2007 before the Conference of markets and agricultural prices the Global Donor Platform argued that support to marginalized producers cannot be given up, because the Given the current fast trend of rising world market pric- alternative scenarios of getting an income or adequate es for agricultural commodities, in particular for cereals,

52 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Table 5: Net importers of petroleum products and major grains as a percent of domestic apparent consumption - ranked by prevalence of undernourishment

Countries Petroleum Major grains % undernourishment *** % imported * % imported **

Eritrea 100 88 75 Burundi 100 12 66 Comoros 100 80 60 Tajikistan 99 43 56 Sierra Leone 100 53 51 Liberia 100 62 50 Zimbabwe 100 2 47 Ethiopia 100 22 46 Haiti 100 72 46 Zambia 100 4 46 Central African Republic 100 25 44 Mozambique 100 20 44 Tanzania 100 14 44 Guinea-Bissau 100 55 39 Madagascar 100 14 39 Malawi 100 7 35 Camboida 100 5 33 Korea, DPR 98 45 33 Rwanda 100 29 33 Botswana 100 76 32 Niger 100 82 32 Kenya 100 20 31

* Source: Energy Information Administration: International Energy Anual 2005, Washington D.C., US. Covers crude and refined petroleum products ** Source: FAOSTAT: Archives Commodity Balance Sheets. Average 2001-03 for wheat, rice and maize *** Source: FAOSTAT: Food Security Statistics, Prevaleuce of undermourishment in total population (2002-2004 preliminary): www.fao.org/es/ess/faostat/foodsecurity

Source: FAO 2008a, 17

it becomes clear that the debate about the best approach The price index of the FAO showed an increase in pric- to rural development – which Zoellick also addressed – es of about 40 percent in 2007 for major staple foods, must come back to the centre of the discussion. compared to an increase of 5 percent in 2006. In April 2008 the Asian Development Bank noted an increase in Many authors warn that the situation of relative over- prices for rice from Thailand – one of the leading rice production of food, which was characterizing world exporters worldwide has increased 30 percent in the markets for the last decades, has changed. Several econ- first quarter of 2008 (Braun 2007). It is very important omists warn in the light of the 2007 price increases that to note that many of countries with a high percentage the mid-term trend for food prices will be upwards. of undernourished people are also highly dependent on

53 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Table 6: Forecast import bills of total food and major food commodities (USD million)

World Developing LDC * LIFDC ** 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 Total food 630 135 812 743 190 975 253 526 13 822 17 699 88 577 119 207 Cereals 186 794 268 300 74 615 100 441 6 101 8 031 31 363 41 709 Vegetable Oils 70 822 114 077 34 831 55 658 1 948 3 188 22 919 38 330 Dairy 45 572 86 393 13 593 25 691 824 1 516 5 079 9 586 Meat 78 704 89 712 17 064 20 119 872 1 079 6 295 8 241 Sugar 33 024 22 993 13 892 11 904 1 755 1 320 7 598 4 782

* Least developed countries ** Low-income food deficit countries

Source: FAO 2008a, 18

petroleum imports (Table 5). This leaves them with a and accurate forecasts are still difficult to formulate and double-fold increased bill: More money has to be spent must be made with caution, more studies show that the on food, while the increased oil prices put further pres- price for most agricultural resources will most likely stay sure on national budgets, which often subsidize the higher than in the recent past. Studies from FAO, IFPRI, price people have to pay for petroleum. and the World Food Program all expect similar trends: The prices will probably not decrease to the same level A recent paper presented at the FAO Summit 2008 they experienced during the last decades, even if higher (FAO 2008) estimates how price increases in key com- prices will stimulate additional agricultural output in modities are expected to impact the import bills for the coming years. The High Level Task Force of the UN food. It shows that the Least Developed Countries concluded. (LDCs) have to calculate expenditures increased by 25 percent in 2007 as compared to 2006. The estimates „While food commodity prices now appear to for the Low-Income Food Deficit Countries result in an be stabilizing, prices are expected to remain even higher increase of more than 30 percent. This se- high over the medium or long term“ (HLTF verely constrains governments‘ abilities to invest in the 2008, 10). fight against poverty, malnutrition and other important developmental shortcomings. Many studies refer to several long-term trends, that will influence future agricultural production, and which have Some researchers pinpoint the fact that the low price already partially contributed to recent price increases. period of the last decades resulted in limited agricul- Five trends are of particular importance and will limit a tural investments in many regions of the world. The broad and sustained market response in the near future. „High level Task Force on the Global Food Crisis“, The first two trends are related to factors that influence which was established in April 2008 by a meeting of the global demand, while the fourth and fifth relate to the heads of all UN-Agencies, is making that point strongly global production potential on the supply side: in its report to the General Assembly (HLTF 2008, 8). Increasing prices will therefore be an incentive and will 1. The demand for food and agricultural products is encourage a market response with more investments expected to grow rapidly in coming decades: The in- in agriculture with increasing outputs. While precise creased demand for food products is partially due to

54 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS the increasing population – current estimates result in lost (WBGU 2008). This is caused by a combination a population of 6.5 billion to 9 billion people in 2050 of factors: urbanization and expanded industrial infra- (UN-ESA 2007). This growth will take place mostly in structure, particularly around mega-cities in developing developing countries, but is also currently driven by the countries, soil erosion, desertification, salinisation, and economic growth of several emerging economies. The contamination. Flooding as a consequence of expected increasing wealth (and images of modernity) in these increased extreme precipitation events can also contrib- countries leads to changes in diet towards more animal ute to soil degradation. Decreasing precipitation in some products and cereals. Meat consumption alone has dou- regions because of climate change in some regions, van- bled worldwide during the last 25 years (Ehring 2008). ishing glaciers, and inundations from sea-level rise etc. This is traditionally an issue documented by the former are expected to reduce water availability and partially director of the World Watch Institute, Lester Brown the available land for agriculture. Increasing demand (see Worldwatch Institute 2003). This trend has already for freshwater, inter alia through mega-city growth, also contributed to the decline in food stocks. If global cereal adversely impacts on the availability of this crucial re- consumption was comparable to the average European source. consumption level, two times more (6 billion tonnes) of cereals would be needed than are currently being pro- 5. Climate-related volatility on the supply side: Climate duced.9 change will not only bring long term consequences. The expected increase in intensity and number of ex- 2. The demand for non-food use of agricultural resource treme weather events may also bring about temporary is increasing along with oil prices: Agricultural products shortfalls on the supply side. This can be one important can be used as energy resources, such as agro fuels, factor for the increased volatility of food prices, espe- and resources for other industrial production processes. cially in times of reduced storage capacities. In its recent Simultaneously, increasing oil prices will also impact the analysis, the FAO explicitly mentions „weather-related increase of agricultural prices by influencing the prices production shortfalls“ as one of the factors that have for agricultural input. The support for the use of agro contributed to the recent increase in food prices (FAO fuel has been presented as partially, although not pri- 2008a). In recent years there has been a number of ex- marily, motivated by the will to reduce greenhouse gas amples where extreme weather events have hit regions emissions in the transport sector. But rising oil prices that supply large amounts of food commodities to the and energy security concerns might be more important global market, both in developing and developed coun- drivers. tries. For example, in Australia, which had been the second largest grain exporter after the US, a drought in 3. Global food markets will also be confronted with 2006 made grain yields drop from 25 million tonnes to a shrinking surplus production in the US and the EU, less than 10 million tonnes (Bryant 2008). partially because of WTO commitments to end export subsidies and partially because more agricultural pro- In June 2008, tornadoes caused severe flooding in the duce will be used for bio energetic purposes in these Midwest of the USA, with the water covering more countries. than 40,000 hectares of farmland including large soy fields. As a result, soy prices experienced another in- 4. Future environmental limitations for agricultural pro- crease (dpa 2008). For methodological reasons, it is duction: There is a decreasing amount of land available never possible to link one single extreme weather event for agriculture and grazing. Latest figures estimate that to global climate change. But it can already be shown annually more than 0,5 percent of arable land is being that anthropogenic greenhouse emissions have now

9 Own calculation based on caloric consumption estamates.

55 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS “loaded” the atmosphere. The likelihood of an increase producers but not necessarily the bulk of producers in in number and intensity of extreme weather events has developing countries where many farmers are not linked grown (IPPC 2007a). In extreme cases, traditionally ex- to markets (see OECD/FAO 2008). Prices are expected porting regions can become importers. to become more volatile in the coming period, partly as the result of speculation, partly due to more intense What are the implications of these trends for those suf- weather extremes. fering from food insecurity going to be? The FAO sees two reasons why the urban poor are most Reflecting these structural drivers behind the price in- exposed to the increase in world food prices. crease, it is likely that prices will stay above the level we had during the last decade, even though there is a „First, urban populations are more likely to con- recent decline in commodity prices from the peak levels sume staple foods derived from tradable com- in early 2008 (see also CTA 2008). In addition to the modities (wheat, rice), while rural populations mentioned factors, there is a continued rise in fertilizer (particularly in Africa and Latin America) tend to prices and energy costs, which are major input factors consume more traditional staples, such as roots for farmers. All indicators therefore support the assump- and tubers. Second, urban populations are less tion that prices will stabilize at a higher niveau in the likely to produce a significant share of their own mid- and long term. A recession would certainly support food or produce for sale“ (FAO 2008a, 31). a short term price reduction. Price increases could have positive welfare effects for A recent OECD and FAO study highlighted that while parts of society, including rural smallholders, which are prices should decline from their recent peak, they will net-sellers in respect to goods that experience price in- remain above the average of the past decade (OECD/ crease. The amount of positive effect depends on the FAO 2008). Comparing the 1998-2007 period to the ratio between the price increase of the good sold and projected price levels for 2008-2017 beef and pork pric- the production costs. In this regard, soaring oil prices es may be some 20 percent higher, raw and white sugar have a detrimental effect on rural farmers, because en- around 30 percent, wheat, maize and skimmed-milk ergy use plays such an important role in the production powder 40 percent to 60 percent, butter and oilseeds and particularly transport of these products to markets. more than 60 percent, and vegetable oil over 80 per- Even worse, in many countries most of the rural poor cent. are not net-sellers. This means that they also face increased expenditures for their food consumption (FAO The European Commission published an analysis of the 2008a, 31f). In some cases, it may be possible to switch recent food crises which supported the conclusion that to consuming goods which have not faced such price the rising prices have affected net food importing coun- increases. In the long term, price increases may lead tries in Africa most severely (see Table 6). According to to more political attention, increased support, and im- the EC judgment the higher food prices have translated proved productivity of rural agriculture, with opportu- into greater poverty, malnutrition and increased vulner- nities for higher incomes for the rural poor. However, ability to further external shocks for the world‘s poorests currently it is more likely that a large number of people (EC 2008). At the same time, the EC has the hope that are negatively affected. higher prices in the medium or long term will present new income-generating opportunities for farmers also in Price trends might be aggravated by the impact of cli- developing countries, allowing them to better deal with mate change. It becomes therefore more and more ob- the consequences of climate change. But the common vious that these particular groups are those most likely OECD/FAO report is skeptical about that hope: High affected by rising prices, because the price increase will prices, the OECD is arguing, will benefit commercial directly affect the percentage of their income which they

56 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS have to spend on food alone. Adequate policies such as lyze and describe the nutritional status of people; they social transfers and increased humanitarian help might should have sufficient access to food and be healthy improve the situation of poor consumers as well as poli- enough to avoid malnutrition. The four components of cies to increase market access by remote small holder food security (availability, physical access, economic ac- farmers. However, conclusions for strategic responses cess, utilization) seem comparable to the description of vary tremendously and are often partially contradictory. the right to adequate food, but the two concepts differ. Against the background of these trends and including Food Security is mainly an analytical tool, and not an the impacts of global climate change on food security, agenda for policy action. conclusions with regard to agricultural development policies and rural development will be discussed in The right to adequate food is a human right. It is en- chapter 5. shrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, adopted in 1948 by the UN General Assembly (UN 1948). This document serves as a foundation for the 2.5 Food security compared with legally binding International Covenant on Economic, other concepts: food sovereignty, Social and Cultural Rights (ICESCR), which was adopt- right to food ed by the UN General Assembly in 1966 and entered into force in 1976. As of June 2008, it has been rati- For the purpose of this study, it is important to clarify fied by 158 state Parties (as of June 2008, UN 1966, the relationship between the concept of food security see Figure 12: Map of Parties to the ICESCR). It is and the human right to adequate food, as both con- well described by the General Comment No. 12 of the cepts are referred to regularly, and it is important to see United Nations Committee on Economic, Social and both the similarities and differences. Food security has Cultural Rights (see High-Commissioner for Human been described above. In essence, it is a concept to ana- Rights OHCHR). Moreover, it is politically reconfirmed

Figure 12: Map of Parties to the ICESCR

Parties to the ICESCR: Parties in dark grey; states which have signed but not ratified in light grey, non-parties in white

Source: www.wikipedia.org, based on OHCHR

57 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS and strongly supported by all member states of the the UN-Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Food and Agricultural organization in the adoption of Rights with the General Comment No. 15 (see Sacher the „Voluntary guidelines on the implementation of the and Windfuhr 2008). right to adequate food in the context of national food security“ in November 2004 by the FAO-Council (FAO 2004). It describes government obligations, and it is 2.6 Content of the right to adequate therefore an implementation-oriented tool that allows food monitoring government action vis-à-vis groups which are particularly food insecure. In General Comment No. 12 (GC 12), the Committee on Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights has given its Other human rights particularly relevant for climate interpretation of the right to adequate food. change effects are the rights to housing, to health, and to water and sanitation. The right to adequate food and „The right to adequate food is realized when housing are part of the right to an adequate standard of every man, women and child, alone or in com- living in Art. 11 of the ICESCR. The right to achieve munity with others, have physical and econom- the highest attainable standards of health is recognized ic access at all times to adequate food or means in Art. 12 of the same covenant. The right to water is for its procurement“ (Committee on Economic, not mentioned specifically in the ICESCR, but is derived Social and Cultural Rights 2002). from Art. 11, the right to adequate food and Art. 12 the right to health. The content and state obligations linked The right to adequate food implies the availability of to the rights to food, housing and health has been de- food in quantity and quality which is sufficient to satisfy veloped in the course of the last 10 years, partially by the dietary needs of individuals. The food has to be free the UN-Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural from adverse substances and acceptable within a given Rights (CESCR) in the form of general comments, or by culture. Furthermore, the food has to be accessible in the work of UN-special rapporteurs. ways which are sustainable, which implies that the access and the availability needs to be given long term. Special rapporteurs are thematic experts nominated by the UN-Human Rights Council woh follow one issue Several components of this definition are of particular for up to six years and publish two thematic and two importance in properly understanding the content of country reports every year. The have helped develop a the right to adequate food. Food must be physically detail and precise understanding of the rights to food, available. Availability implies either a possibility to feed housing, health and education (see Eide et al. 2007). oneself from productive land or the existence of a well- functioning food distribution system that guarantees General comments are interpretations or clarifications food is always there. Availability in a region or a village given by the UN-expert committee that is supervising alone does not mean that a person or a household has the implementation of the Covenant. They are not le- access to the food. The food needs to be accessible both gally binding but interpretation guidelines for judges physically and economically. Sometimes minorities are who use or apply the covenant in court rules related hindered in getting access to food. Sometimes they do to ESC rights (see Eide et al. 2007). The detailed un- not have the economic means to buy food. derstanding of the right to water is still under discussion and in 2008 the Human Rights Council selected Accessibility of food is only sufficiently guaranteed an independent expert on the right to water and sanita- when individuals or households do not have to sacrifice tion, who has the mandate to help clarifying the related other essential basic needs in order to get food. Any state obligations. An initial orientation for the use and form of food procurement is therefore only viable when interpretation of the right to water has given in 2002 by other ESC-rights do not have to be breached. The term

58 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS `dietary needs´ refers to more than pure nutrients for A third term gaining prominence within the debates physical needs. It refers to those dietary needs which of civil society organisations dealing with issues such are necessary for physical and mental growth and physi- as hunger, malnutrition, and rural development is food cal activity. sovereignty. Food sovereignty is a political concept primarily developed in the context of La Via Campesina, a Another important component is access to adequate global small farmers‘ movement. It is increasingly being health prevention and control of disease. Many children used by other civil society organisations including the who die from malnutrition do have access to food, but umbrella organization of civil society groups working cannot adequately utilize it, because diseases are hinder- at the FAO. ing them.10 For children, particularly small children and babies, another component is decisive. Somebody must The parallel civil society forum to the World Food give adequate care so that children will be feed well and Summit + 5 conference in June 2002 was held in the regularly. The General Comments defines this as core name of food sovereignty, providing evidence that this content of the right to adequate food and the freedom topic is becoming the most relevant civil society concept. from hunger. This refers to the immediate obligations of In March 2007 Via Campesina coordinated with the governments to guarantee that nobody dies from acute umbrella organization of small farmers in West Africa, hunger due to man made and natural catastrophes and (Reseau des Organisations Paysannes et des Producteurs emergencies. While the content of „freedom from hun- Agricoles de l’ Afrique de l’ Quest, ROPPA), and other ger“ has not been well elaborated so far, it reflects the civil society organisations at an international gathering intention of the drafters of the ESCR to make sure that of civil society in Mali. The outcome was a common nobody dies from immediate hunger. The full realization statement that describes the ideas behind the concept of the right to adequate food can only be achieved proof food sovereignty quite well (see Nyeleni Declaration gressively and will take time, even when many govern- 2007). Food sovereignty has been developed as a con- ment obligations can be implemented immediately. cept by social movements and farmers organisations to protest the neglect of rural areas and rural development The implementation of the right to adequate food is in national and international policies. It highlights the guided by specific government obligations. Food secu- political will of organisations of rural people to have the rity describes a goal; the right to adequate food obliges right to determine their own situation. governments make a qualitative response to the problem of hunger and malnutrition. A human rights-based Emphasis is placed on protecting the possibilities of monitoring has the specific focus to analyze whether smallholder farmers to continue producing and to earn governments are implementing their specific human a decent income from agricultural production. rights obligations (see Immick 2004). Rights-based monitoring (RBM) starts by using available informa- Security in accessing productive resources is key for tion and data in a country as identified by food security this concept. This includes a secure access to land, wa- indicators. Additionally, it tries to measure progress in ter, as well as seeds and breeds. the implementation of human rights obligations of the country. It measures to what extent government poli- The current marginalization of rural communities cies constitute an adequate answer to the duties of the shall be overcome and their right to food realized. government. It analyses whether governments use their respective resources adequately and most reasonably to International trade shall be reduced to a minimum guarantee the full enjoyment of this right. in order to let local and national markets blossom.

10 The standard definition of food security covers that aspect because adequate use and utilization of food is a precondition for food security.

59 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Traditional plant varieties shall be used, protected respect, protect, and fulfill the right to adequate food, and supported. Patents on seeds and breeds should be particularly for the most vulnerable groups. This results forbidden. in a number of more specific obligations:

Food sovereignty is not only used as concept for 1. The state has to respect the rights of its people. When farmers, but also as a concept for the ambitions of fish- it comes to the right to food, the state must not take ac- ers, herders and indigenous communities. tions that endanger the means of livelihood or access to food for groups or individuals. Examples include forced Food sovereignty is promoted as a political concept evictions due to different kinds of projects (e.g. large de- countering the current dominant model of rural devel- velopment or infrastructure projects, like construction opment based on a free trade as central parameter. The of dams, lumbering or oil exploitation etc.). In cases current model is perceived by social movements as a where the possibilities for people to feed themselves model of „corporate driven“ agriculture that fosters a are undermined by such activities, these groups must concentration of power and resources in the hand of a be offered compensation, rehabilitation, or an equal op- few multinational corporations and land owners. While portunity to feed themselves. The obligation to respect the use of the term food sovereignty still varies and no this target often requires states to omit action. The im- standard definition is yet available, the Nyeleni state- plementation of that obligation is often affordable and ment offers the first consolidated reference point. In the can be immediately implemented by all states. At the last chapter, this study will compare its own recommen- same time, the obligation to respect requires that states dations with the central elements of the concept of food respect equal rights of access to productive resources as sovereignty (see chapter 11). well as to social transfer incomes.

2. The state has to protect peoples‘ access to food against 2.7 Standards of governance under the outside third parties. For example, transnational or na- right to food tional corporations or big land owners might threaten the livelihoods of people by engaging in activities with- The right to adequate food sets standards for govern- out taking into consideration the people living in the ance at both national and international levels, accord- area. Such activities might be mining, oil exploitation, ing to the International Covenant on Economic, Social industrial fishing etc. Adequate protection means legis- and Cultural Rights (ICESCR) and the aforementioned lation protecting vulnerable groups in society from be- voluntary guidelines. 18 guideline recommendations ing deprived of their resources or rights. Governments describe how governments can guarantee the right to are obliged to implement existing laws in order to guar- adequate food in national or local policies. Guideline antee freedom from hunger through administrative and 19 refers to international obligations governments have police measures. in their own foreign policy, but also to obligations they have when acting in intergovernmental organisations. 3. The obligation to fulfill requires that the state becomes active in identifying vulnerable groups and de- The right to food perspective in this study allows for signing policies and programs that improve their access discussing and challenging current forms of govern- to food-producing resources or income. The obligation ance and to draw conclusions on how to better orient to fulfill can only be implemented in a step by step man- national and international policies to overcome hunger ner. Art. 2 of the ICESCR requires that state parties use and malnutrition. the „maximum of the available resources“ (UN 1966). The non-identification of vulnerable groups or the miss- Human rights set standards for government policies. ing start of progressive realization can be judged as vio- The state parties to the ICESCR have the obligation to lations of Covenant rights. Furthermore, the obligation

60 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS to fulfill states that parties should implement two differ- the result of a international lawyer conference which ent types of policy measures: discussed the nature of the realisation of ESC-Rights. Published by the ICJ in 1987. First, they should enable as many people as possible to take care of themselves. Facilitating covers measures The right to adequate food allows for holding govern- like creating access to productive resources like land, ments accountable with regard to their adaptation poli- seed, water etc. or to receive other forms of income. cies to climate change. Governments must develop a For example, this obligation implies that governmen- national strategy for the implementation of the right to tal measures fulfill the right to food through agrarian adequate food, which should encompass at least the fol- reform, guaranteeing a minimum income, or securing lowing five elements (see Windfuhr 2001): minimum wage provisions. 1. Governments must assess and identify the most vul- Second, the obligation to fulfill covers specific measures nerable groups concerning the right to adequate food protecting affected groups who cannot make use of pro- and food insecurity or those who are malnourished ductive opportunities. These populations are comprised and hungry. Without proper assessment, governments of those who are too old, too young, HIV-Aids orphans cannot properly focus their policy attention to these etc. These groups need the provision of food or money groups. in order to avoid hunger and malnutrition. 2. Governments have to make sure that existing legisla- The implementation of economic, social, and cultural tion addresses the concerns of these groups and that the human rights does not demand impossible efforts from legislation is not leading to de jure discrimination and states, as is often suggested by skeptics, but involves violations. feasible objectives. The obligation to respect and protect rights can usually be fulfilled without recourse to ex- 3. Governments have to make sure that their policy tensive financial means. The obligation to fulfill human response and choice of instruments (de facto) is rea- rights requires the investment of resources. However, sonably focused towards the most vulnerable. Policies Art. 2 of the ICESCR sets realistic standards, which should respect and protect existing access to productive can be met even by poor countries. The article does resources, income, and food. Governments must prove not demand that all rights are to be immediately imple- that they are doing the utmost to implement the right to mented, but that the state has to implement the rights adequate food and are helping people cope with risks. progressively and has to use the maximum amount of resources available. This obligation can also be fulfilled 4. Governments are obliged to monitor the outcome of by poorer states, as the article only requires the invest- their policies. ment of resources available. The use of these resources should, though, focus on and prioritize the poor and 5. Governments must also allow for accountability discriminated sections of the population. mechanisms, including functioning complaint mechanisms and access to recourse procedures. Other requirements have been described in the literature and are becoming standard interpretations of the As described above, the World Food Summit in 1996 application of the obligation to fulfill. Governments have established a new secretariat to improve the food inse- to show that they have taken specific steps vis-à-vis all curity measurement and the identification of vulnerable vulnerable groups. The realization of the rights should groups to food insecurity. Since then an interagency be progressive and should be fostered „as expeditiously working group has developed a detailed methodology as possible“. These qualifications were first developed in on how to identify vulnerable groups for food insecu- the Limburg principles from 1987. These principles are rity. It developed a typology of 54 potentially vulnerable

61 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Figure 13: Analytical framework to assess climate-related risks and food security

Vulnerable to hazard Hazard Risk of food shortage + = (international cause) (external cause) outcome

Baseline analysis: Defining the magnitude of The outcome analysis: Tackles the fundamental a problem: Conducted on a seasonal basic question of how people Involves translating hazard (e.g. pre- or post-harvest) or survive, translating rural information into economic in a response to a predicted economies into useful consequences, comparing or observed harzard (such as a analytical backdrops. historical data sets to current flood, or a pirce rise) values.

Normal sources of food The drought will result in Food security outcome 50% of normal crop production

Source: Zulu 2003

groups, from both rural and urban livelihood contexts. 2.8 Climate change and vulnerabilities This typology can be a helpful starting point for govern- for food insecurity ment assessments on hunger and malnutrition (FIVIMS 2002). Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries are all sensitive to climatic conditions. Climate change will have direct Governments need to build the skills and methodol- impacts on these three sectors, including their produc- ogy to work with such a measurement system, which tivity. In turn, this will affect the income of vulnerable is so far only used by the UN-Agencies. However, the groups that depend on resources and products derived complexity of the system should not give the impres- from these sectors. The scale of the direct adverse and sion that it is too complex to monitor vulnerability for positive effects varies with the specific geographical situ- food security. In most countries, few groups are vulner- ation. Relatively easy general conclusions can be drawn able and need to be monitored in detail. The focus of on the global to regional scale, where it becomes obvi- the more detailed assessment of the specific vulnerable ous that particularly low-latitude regions will be affect- groups depends on the livelihood circumstances in that ed negatively regarding their agricultural yields, water country. availability etc. Generally speaking, the greater the glo-

62 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Table 7: Determinants of rural household vulnerabilities

External Internal A high proportion of households engaged in subsistence Access to safe water and sanitation or small scale farming or herding on marginal lands

Scarcity of water and other resources security of water rights High poverty rates Land-tenure status

Rapidly growing population Farm size and soil quality

Poorly diversified income opportunities in the local Number of animals owned economy Inadequate health, education and other services Quantity and quality of household labor supply Lack of social safety nets Ownership of farm equipment Gender inequality Amount and diversity of household income Declining local authority Financial savings Governance failures Access to Credit Violent conflict Food stores Competition from market liberalization Health status of household members Gender of household head

Source: Leary et al. 2007

bal temperature increase, the more severe the adverse It is generally likely that those already suffering from effects (IPCC 2007b). undernourishment and hunger are also among those most at risk from climate change, although there might However, these macro-level projections are not sufficient be exceptions. It then becomes important what vulner- to identify the most vulnerable groups within regions able groups are placed in regions where climate change or countries. This requires further efforts. Vulnerability will have adverse impacts. As in other fields also in the assessments on the national level and the community case of food security, certain non-climatic stressors may level are crucial for developing adequate responses to have a very important influence on adaptive capacity, food insecurity in face of climate change. The vulnera- as has been identified in the case of India (Parry et al. bility-specific information, which primarily looks at the 2007, 71). There is a large overlap between those dis- internal constitution of a region or a community with tricts with a high vulnerability to climate change and regard to non-climate stressors, is the necessary next those that rank highest in terms of import competition step, as was addressed above. It then must be connected associated with economic globalization. Other studies to climate-related factors, for example the change in the have assessed specific rural vulnerabilities and relevant likeliness of extreme weather events, and precipitation climate drivers, e.g. in Africa (Leary et al. 2007). Both patterns etc. (see chapter 3). This may result in general external factors and internal factors were found to in- assessments of vulnerability to climate change, but may crease the vulnerability of rural households. also – and that would be appropriate in the context of this study – be translated into sector-specific climate So far we see many regions – e.g. in Africa or in Asia change risk assessment, for example with regard to food – with more changes in the of weather patterns than security (Figure 13). changes in the average amount of rain fall (FAO 2003a,

63 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS 361ff). That means that even with insignificant changes The risk arising from potential consequences of climate of the average precipitation impacts on farmers and change for people will not only be determined by chang- their harvests can already be severe. This provides a se- ing weather conditions but also to a large extend by rious challenge for the timing of sowing and harvesting. the appropriateness of risk management and adaptation Additional problems are generated by a general trend policies. It will therefore be decisive for potentially af- towards more intense rain events, even if this does not fected persons how well their government and local effect the average rain fall. It is important to note, that – community develop responses to adapt to already ex- because of the non-linear and often chaotic behavior of isting and potential future risks or uncertainties. Thus, weather – we will have considerable uncertainty in the climate change impacts have to be assessed in a double future about how projected changes will impact the lo- sense: cal level. On the other hand, we can expect progress in assessing the likeliness of climatic long term changes for (1) First, certain groups at the national or regional level these regions. The possibility to predict the environmen- are at risk to be affected by climate change in a simi- tal and social impact will remain limited, but govern- lar way. Entire villages might have to expect impacts ments have to try to be as specific in their assessments by changes in rainfall patterns. Governments need to as possible. identify the most likely changes (and also more uncertain but high risk exposure) in livelihood situations and The IPCC has concluded that the number and intensity start designing an adequate policy response from that of extreme weather events have likely increased (IPCC perspective. 2007a). According to data from the reinsurance compa- ny MunichRe, the increase in weather-related extreme The number and geographic size of regions at risk is events has been much more significant than that of non- likely expanded, but in some cases it may also shift. weather extremes (e.g. earthquakes) since 1980. This New geographic areas, which had not been risk-prone fact is another indicator for increased risks from climate to weather patterns or increasing sea levels, will be af- change (Munich Re 2007). Additionally, it needs to be fected by new risks in a climate-changed world. At the analyzed how changes in the frequency and intensity same time, new vulnerable groups regarding food inse- of extreme weather situations will increase the risk of curity are likely to emerge. While some agriculturally- these groups of being hit by an event with eventually based livelihoods may – mainly in the beginning – ben- disastrous consequences. Non-linear changes in climate efit from the effects of climate change, others will be change are difficult to estimate in a detailed assessment undermined. Also, the livelihood status of agricultural of changes. Nevertheless, their potential consequences workers will change as specific agricultural production help to indicate which the potential vulnerable groups patterns regionally shift. Vulnerability is also increasing are. for other groups such as low-income city dwellers who often face impacts of extreme weather events or vari- In the UN-Human Rights context the term “vulnerable able food prices. Those with few assets and those who groups” is often used in an standardised form, to de- lack adequate insurance coverage or access to safety net scribe groups that are particulary hit by serveral forms of transfers are likely to become more vulnerable. discrimination such as “women, children, indigenious etc.”. This study use the term in a broader form to de- (2) Second, from a human rights perspective, looking at scribe all groups which are vulnerable to food depriva- the livelihood situation alone is not enough; even when tion and undernutrition or which are under threat to persons belong to a certain livelihood setting and the become food insecure. This term is similarly used by an climate change effects are similar for all households in a interagency working group on assessing food insecurity village or region, their individual coping capacities vary the Food Insecurity and Vulnerability Information and from household to household. Households have a differ- Mapping System (see FIVIMS/FAO 2003). ent factor endowment that takes into account aspects

64 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS such as land ownership, access to assets, or labor ca- most vulnerable groups and limit their risk? Does the pacity. Governments might discriminate in their design international support reach these groups? of adaptation policies towards households headed by women, or families belonging to minorities or other dis- A person or a family is a vulnerable person or family not criminated ethnic groups. In quite a number of regions, only due to changing weather conditions, but mainly especially in Africa, HIV-affected families are particularly due to their livelihood situation and their factor endow- vulnerable. ment. The question whether the vulnerable situation translates into persistence of or to additional hunger or Any assessment of vulnerability must therefore be hu- malnutrition is dependent on the form of the govern- man rights-based. A rights-based assessment is a process ment response. A given (insufficient) factor endowment in itself and has to build on human rights principles such of families is already partially a result of government pol- as transparency, participation and non-discrimination. It icy. The challenge for governments to deal adequately has to be asked whether the people whose situation was with climate change will be therefore a double one: To assessed were informed about the assessment, if they adequately address vulnerability, as well as – identify could participate or contribute to the assessment, and the people at risk from additional climate change related if they can complain in case that their specific concerns threats – acute or long term ones. and problems were not adequately reflected in the outcome. The human rights based approach guiding the In many cases new groups will become vulnerable methodology of this study is further explained below through sea-level rise, glacier melting, changing weather (see chapter 2.5, 4 and 5). One value added is that it patterns or other climate related risk factors. Additionally, sharpens any assessment for the needs of particularly countries will see new vulnerable groups emerging that poor and marginal groups in society. may face problems unknown so far to the country.

The ability of people at risk to cope with the trends and Adaptation policies to climate change in principle must effects of climate change will depend generally on the pass the same rights-based „test“ as normal policies: three following factors, and for each factor key analytical questions can be identified: Has the government identified the relevant vulnerable groups? 1. The coping capacity of each family and community in its given situation: How many assets does the family Has a proper risk assessment been done? have? Which income sources are available? Where is the family living and what are the factors determining Are the policies reasonably focused on those vulner- the livelihood situation etc.? able groups?

2. The government response to the challenges: Does the Are the effects and the impact of policies moni- government have the most affected groups identified? tored? Has it started to introduce policies and programs that address their particular vulnerability etc.? Do people have the right to complain against policies affecting them, do they have a legal recourse? 3. The support for governments and local communities provided by the international community, e.g. by the Human rights not only ask for an end to violations and UN climate policy process: Does the international com- for positive outcomes for the most vulnerable groups, munity provide enough support for governments and but they also set standards related to the political proc- local communities? Does the support provide incentives esses leading to results. These processes must be par- for the government and local communities to identify ticipatory, transparent and non-discriminatory. A rights-

65 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS based approach to adaptation policies will help make The obligations can be described in parallel to the obli- them better-targeted to those most affected by climate gations at the national level. Governments should make change. sure that their own policies and programs do not harm people abroad and do not contribute to violations (ob- While only states are parties to the Covenant and are ligation to respect). They should regulate private actors thus ultimately accountable for compliance with it, all in a way that their action in foreign countries does not members of society – individuals, families, local com- lead to violations (obligation to protect). Concerning the munities, non-governmental organizations, civil society obligation to fulfill, one cannot easily translate the obli- organisations, as well as the private business sector – gation from the national level to the international level, have responsibilities in the realization of the right to ad- because at the national level it is an obligation to use the equate food. The state should provide an environment maximum of available resources. Thus, in the literature that facilitates the implementation of these responsibili- the term used is therefore „the obligation to support in ties. fulfillment“.

In this context it is also important to have a look at 2.9 International obligations in the obligations for governments arising from the United the right to food debate and under the Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC (UNFCCC), which entered into force in 1994 and has been ratified by 192 Parties (for furhter informa- The right to adequate food also sets standards for gov- tions see the website of the United Nations Framework ernment interventions abroad and at the international Convention on Climate Change UNFCC). In Article 4.1 level. The International Covenant on Economic, Social all Parties have committed to inter alia and Cultural rights mentioned the obligation to international cooperation and assistance in two articles. In Cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the impacts Articel 2 (1) where the general obligations are described of climate change; develop and elaborate appropriate and in Artikel 11 (2) in relation to the realization of the and integrated plans for coastal zone management, wa- right to adequate food. ter resources and agriculture, and for the protection and rehabilitation of areas, particularly in Africa, affected by While it is a new step in international law to talk about drought and desertification, as well as floods; such extraterritorial obligations, there is an increasing body of literature that discusses the matter and Take climate change considerations into account, to describes the respective obligations (see Bread for the the extent feasible, in their relevant social, economic World, EED and FIAN (ed.); Gibney and Skogly 2007; and environmental policies and actions; Skogly 2006; Coonmans and Kaminga 2005). Three of the special rapporteurs on economic, social, and cul- Promote and cooperate in scientific, technological, tural rights have also started to contribute to the clari- technical, socio-economic and other research; fication of the extraterritorial obligations of states. Two reports on the extraterriorial obliagations related to the Promote and cooperate in the full, open and prompt right to adequate food has been written by Jean Ziegler exchange of relevant scientific, technological, technical, (2006 and 2007). The special rapporteur on the right to socio-economic and legal information related to the cli- health, Paul Hunt, has written one report on the obli- mate system and climate change, and to the economic gation to interational cooperation and assistence in the and social consequences of various response strategies; year 2007. International obligations has been clarified by the special rapporteur on adequate housing, Miloon Promote and cooperate in education, training and Kothari. public awareness related to climate change and encour-

66 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS age the widest participation in this process, including full incremental costs of implementing measures“ as re- that of non-governmental organizations. ferred to under Art. 4.1.

It is both remarkable and concerning that these com- In addition, Article 4.4 states that industrialized coun- mitments, as well as the whole Convention, only in- tries clude a recognition that low-lying and other small island countries, countries with low-lying coastal, arid „shall also assist the developing country Parties and semi-arid areas or areas liable to floods, countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse experiencing drought and desertification, and develop- effects of climate change in meeting costs of ing countries with fragile mountainous ecosystems, are adaptation to those adverse effects“ (UNFCCC particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate 1992, 8). change. But it does not include any specific reference to vulnerable groups or parts of the society. Only in educa- In essence, industrialized countries have agreed to the tion, training and public awareness are NGOs explicitly obligation to support developing countries in fulfilling mentioned. The same holds true for the Bali Action Plan their commitments under the Convention. However, (UNFCCC 2007b). It is a process driven by Parties, and Article 4.7 of the Convention must be read in close stakeholders below that level are rarely addressed in conjunction with this obligation, because it makes the negotiating texts. At least the guidelines to the prepara- support by developed countries a precondition for the tion of National Adaptation Programs of Action (NAPAs) activities undertaken by developing countries: explicitly state that it shall be guided by the objective of a „participatory process involving stakeholders, particu- „The extent to which developing country Parties larly local communities“ (UNFCCC 2001).11 will effectively implement their commitments under the Convention will depend on the effec- Where commitments under Art. 4.1 relevant to food tive implementation by developed country Parties security and the preservation of the right to food are of their commitments under the Convention re- implemented, the obligations and guidelines previously lated to financial resources and transfer of tech- described with regard to the right to adequate food are nology [...]“ (UNFCCC 1992, 8). applicable. The combination of these two delineates a clear legal foundation for applying these criteria to ad- The recently (end of 2007) adopted Bali Action Plan aptation policies and programs related to food security has the objective to lead to an agreement which will and other rights impacted by climate change, particu- enable larly the right to water. According to the „obligation to support in fulfillment“, industrialized countries have „the full, effective and sustained implementa- committed themselves to additional obligations in the tion of the Convention through long-term co- UNFCCC which are relevant to this debate: operative action, now, up to and beyond 2012“ (UNFCCC 2007b, 1). Article 4.3 of the Framework Convention contains a two-fold financial obligation, to (a) „provide new and It is thus based on all principles and commitments that additional resources to meet the agreed full costs in- are enshrined in the Convention. While the Bali Action curred by developing countries“ to prepare their initial Plan is literally about considering certain elements in national communications, and (b) to „meet the agreed the negotiations on the way to a new climate change

11 LDCs are assisted financially in preparing NAPAs which should identify the most urgent adaptation needs and identify priority projects; in June 2008, 33 LDCs had submitted their NAPAs to the UNFCCC.

67 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Table 8: Global percentage shares of population, income, capacity, cumulative emissions, responsibility and RCI (combined Responsibility and Capability Index) for selected countries and groups of countries

Percentage share of Global Global Global Cumulative emissions Global Global population income capacity 1990-2005 responsibility RCI United States 4.7 20.2 31.8 23.7 37.0 34.3

EU (27) 7.7 21.5 29.0 17.8 23.1 26.6 United Kingdom 0.9 3.3 4.7 2.5 3.6 4.3 Germany 1.3 4.0 5.6 3.8 5.2 5.5 Russia 2.2 2.5 1.5 7.4 4.3 2.3 Brazil 2.9 2.6 2.1 1.3 1.0 1.6 China 20.4 14.7 7.1 13.8 6.6 7.0 India 17.0 6.1 0.4 3.8 0.3 0.3 South Africa 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.6 1.5 1.1 LDCs 8.3 1.4 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 All high income 15.6 53.9 78.8 52.7 76.9 78.5 All middle income 47.7 36.6 20.7 41.1 22.8 21.1 All low income 36.7 9.5 0.5 6.2 0.4 0.5

In this calculation, the US would have to bear 34.3 percent of the adaptation costs in developing countries, based on a combined analysis of capacity and responsibility. This analysis includes a „development threshold“, which excludes the number of people living below an annual income of USD 9,000 in power purchasing parities (see original source for more details).

Source: Baer et al. 2007, 12

agreement, the elements contained imply certain reiter- agement and risk sharing concepts (such as insurance) ated or new commitments for developed countries to and ways to enable climate-resilient development and support developing countries. Without these it is unlike- to reduce vulnerability (UNFCCC 2007b, 2). ly that developing countries will agree to a (meaningful) post-2012 framework. The size and criteria for any additional resources developed countries will have to provide a key issue in the New and additional resources shall be provided, includ- post-2012 negotiations. The Convention‘s key principle ing innovative means of funding to assist particularly of „common but differentiated responsibilities and re- vulnerable Parties on adaptation, financial and technical spective capabilities“ serves as a starting point for de- support to assist developing countries in determining termining the „burden sharing“ in adaptation financing, their financial adaptation needs, and means to incentiv- but the concrete application is not trivial. Responsibility ize adaptation action (UNFCCC 2007b). is usually related to greenhouse gas emissions, and capability mostly refers to an indicator of economic wealth A number of activities are listed where increased in- or state of development. Table 8 shows one of the most ternational cooperation shall be discussed, including recent and most sophisticated attempts to calculate the vulnerability and financial needs assessments, risk man- burden.

68 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS While the negotiations on a post-2012 agreement are Development Goals. While there are many possible syn- gaining pace, countries are expected to come forward ergies between increasing people‘s adaptive capacity to with more concrete proposals describing how adapta- climate change and poverty reduction strategies, adaption could be fostered in the future. In the negotiations tation requires additional investments. Those that are in Bonn in June 2008, some countries introduced ideas least able to cope with climate change are those that based on the Convention‘s principles. Three notable have contributed almost nothing to the problem. That is examples are proposals by Norway, Switzerland and why many countries in the recent negotiations in Bonn Mexico. The first two presented their ideas explicitly and other occasions have rightfully called for a definition as a means to generate financing for adaptation, while of additional finance (additional to ODA commitments). the Mexican proposal of a World Climate Change Fund Thus, financing mechanisms that deliver resources that focused on financing mitigation (see Harmeling and Bals are not counted as ODA can be judged as more in line 2008b). In some of these concepts certain developing with the principles of the Convention (see Harmeling countries would also have to make limited financial con- and Bals 2008b and for more details on adaptation mea tributions, like in Table 8. While differentiation among sures see chapter 5). developing countries is a touchy issue, the fact is that in more and more developing countries there is a growing consumer class with a growing carbon emission responsibility – more than hundred of million people in China and India. It is interesting to see that, not only Mexico, but more and more developing countries start addressing this perspective more openly.

At the same time, developing countries are also expected to present on how they plan to effectively scale-up adaptation and deliver it to the most vulnerable communities in case they want to receive financial support. Neither the Bonn negotiations nor the submissions made in past months by developing country Parties have added substantially to this particular question (see Harmeling and Bals 2008b). Against this background, a more thorough analysis of how the voluntary FAO guidelines outlined above could serve as a guideline to develop such concepts, e.g. in the context of the future development of „National Adaptation Plans“, will be reasonable.

Finally, a crucial issue with regard to developed countries‘ commitments has to be raised. Assuming the additional resources needed for adaptation in developing countries is generated through a mechanism under a post-2012 framework, this resource flow would reach a significant magnitude in the order of tens of billions Euros. The actual delivery of ODA not only falls short of the developed countries‘ commitment made to provide 0.7 percent of their GNI, it also lags behind what is estimated to be necessary to reach the Millennium

69 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS 3 Relevant trends in climate charge. A warming of lakes and rivers in many regions change is projected.

There is also high confidence that recent warming The following chapter is primarily based on the results is strongly affecting terrestrial biological systems, which of the IPCC‘s Fourth Assessment Report (FAR) which includes effects such as earlier timing of spring events, was released in the first half of 2007. Most informa- leaf-unfolding, bird migration and egg-laying. Satellite tion is taken from the Working Group II of the IPCC data show already earlier greening of vegetation in on „Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability“ which was the spring since the early 1980s, and that this trend is concerned with the relationship between observed cli- linked to longer thermal growing seasons due to recent mate change and the recently observed changes in the warming. natural and human environment (IPCC 2007b; Parry et al. 2007). Rising water temperature will impact marine and freshwater biological systems as substantial new studies Working Group I, „The Physical Science Basis“, con- have shown. It will lead to range changes and earlier sidered the information available on observed climate migrations of fish in rivers, and will contribute to shifts change and projections of future emission pathways and in ranges and changes in algal, plankton and fish abun- related consequences in terms of temperature increase, dances in high-latitude oceans and high-altitude lakes. sea-level rise etc. (IPCC 2007a). Additional information has been added as new data has become available. For some fundamental trends, recent studies indicate that the expected changes might even occur faster than The average global temperature has increased during recently anticipated. For example, the increase of the the 20th century by 0,74°C. The first working group of atmospheric CO2 concentration has been faster during the FAR concluded that most of the observed increase in the last years (2000-2006: 3,3%/year; 1990-1999: 1.3% globally averaged temperature since the mid of the 20th year) (Raupach et al 2007). This development is partly century is very likely due to the observed increase in seen as an implication of the fact that the ocean might anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. already be absorbing less CO2 than expected (perhaps already as a result of global warming) (Canadell et al. The FAR Working Group II summarized some major 2007). Loss of arctic sea ice seems to be accelerating trends which show that many natural systems are being compared to even the most advanced model projections affected by climate change, particular processes related (Stroeve et al. 2007). Observed temperature increase to temperature increase (IPCC 2007b): and sea level rise are at the highest range of IPCC expectations (Rahmstorf et al. 2007). In relation to changes in snow, ice and frozen ground, including permafrost, there is a high confidence The research on tipping elements and their thresholds that natural systems are affected on all continents. This and the impacts that these might have is increasing (see conclusion includes the enlargement and increase of Lenton et al. 2008 for an overview). The severity of im- glacial lakes, the increasing ground instability in per- pacts of such non-linear processes of climate change is mafrost regions, rock avalanches in mountain areas, potentially huge, also with regard to food security. Still as well as substantial changes in Arctic and Antarctic there is a lot of uncertainty, particularly on the threshold ecosystems. levels for triggering these changes.

Concerning hydrological systems, there is high Here, we choose a strategy to argue for a precautionary confidence that many glacier- and snow-fed rivers will principle based mitigation strategy. It would prevent, experience increased run-off and earlier spring peak dis- with a high likelihood, the big tipping points. The tip-

70 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Table 9: Examples of major projected impacts of climate change

Phenomenon and Likelihood of future Agriculture, forestry and Water resources direction of trend trends based on projec- ecosystems tions for 21st century using SRES scenarios Over most land areas, Virtually certain Increased yields in colder Effects on water resources warmer and fewer cold environments; decreased relying on snow melt; effects days and nights, warmer yields in warmer environ- on some water supply and more frequent hot ments; increased insect days and nights outbreaks Warm spells/ heat Very likely Reduced yields in warmer Increased water demand; water waves. Frequency in- regions due to heat stress; quality problems, e.g., algal creases over most land wildfire danger increase blooms areas Heavy precipitation- Very likely Damage to crops; soil ero- Adverse effects on quality events. Frequency sion, inability to cultivate of surface and groundwater; increases over most land due to water logging contamination of water supply; areas of soils water stress may be relieved Area affected by Likely Land degradation, lower More widespread water stress drought yields/crop damage and failure; increased livestock deaths; increased risk of wildfire Intense tropical cyclone Likely Damage to crops; wind Power outages cause disrup- activity increases throw (uprooting) of trees; tion of public water supply damage to coral reefs Increased incidence of Likely Salinisation of irrigation Decreased freshwater extreme high sea-level water, estuaries and availability due to salt-water (excludes tsunamis) freshwater systems intrusion

Source: Parry et al. 2007, 68

ping point which would irreversibly trigger the melting tal regions, continental climate, land-use change etc.). of the Greenland ice shield might already be triggered They are described below in chapters 7 to 9 and are with a treshold of less than two degrees Celsius. It is un- subject to continental studies that will accompany the clear whether a meaningful adaptation strategy would main study. be possible in a scenario where the threshold of most tipping points is passed this century. This is further elab- Besides chapter 3.5, we will summarize the major orated in chapter 3.4. trends in climate change in chapter 3. These trends are of particular importance for the agricultural sector and The different findings on the impact of climate change for food security: (3.1) increase in variability of weather on food, fibre, fish and water as well as the necessary patterns, (3.2) rising importance of weather extremes, adaptation needs from the FAR are presented in chapter (3.3) moving of climate zones and (3.4) changes to be 3.5. Obviously regional trends will vary quite substan- expected through non-linear changes in climate change tially because many different factors will interfere (cos- (tipping elements).

71 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Table 9 summarizes projected climatic changes and everywhere. The IPCC concludes increasing precipita- their impact on the sectors most relevant for the food tion at high latitudes and in the tropics. The south-east security debate. monsoon region might benefit and the tropical pacific might get more rainfall (Kundzewicz et al. 2007, 3.3.1). A decrease in precipitation is expected in the sub-tropics 3.1 Increasing variability such as southern Europe, Northern Africa and northern Sahara. One of the major trends that will characterize the impact of climate change on food security will be the increase While temperatures are expected to increase during in the variability of weather patterns. Many factors that all seasons of the year worldwide, precipitation may determine local weather conditions will change in the increase only in one season and decrease in another process of climate change and such changes in the pat- season. Precipitation variability are expected to increase terns of these weather factors have already become a in the future (Trenberth et al. 2003). Studies on ex- major source for impact of climate change on agricul- pected changes in precipitation extremes in Europe can tural production and food security. be summarized by the fact that the intensity of daily precipitation events will increase over the all areas in The IPCC predicts with high confidence a greater in- Europe, even on those where the average is likely to de- stability of seasonal weather patterns for all parts of the crease (Christensen and Christensen 2003; Kundzewicz world. The first indicator to change will be the start and et al. 2006; Giorgi et al. 2004). This means that the the end of growing seasons. This trend is linked to in- number of wet days in Europe is projected to decrease, creasing evidence from observations of a wider range of with longer dry periods in between excluding the win- species, that recent warming is strongly affecting strong- ters of western and central Europe. At the same time ly terrestrial biological systems. It leads inter alia to an an increase in days with intense precipitation has been earlier timing of spring events, including earlier leaf- projected across most of Europe, except for the South. unfolding, bird migration and egg-laying (Rosenzweig et However, the IPCC highlights that the projections real. 2007, 1.3). While this can be positive in temperate lated to the change in precipitation and other hydrologi- climates prolonging the growing season it will be nega- cal factors are less secure than the projections related to tive in those areas where the start of the growing sea- temperature increase (Kundzewicz et al. 2007, 3.3.1). son was historically oriented towards sufficient rainfall. Climate projections are still not easy to incorporate into If the growing period is disconnected from the mayor hydrological impact studies (Allen and Ingram 2002). rainfall events, it will become difficult to continue agriculture with the same plants than were traditionally The expected changes in precipitation will be of par- used in a certain region. ticular relevance for agricultural production. If the rain does not come at the right moment or on fewer days Most land used for agriculture is still rain fed. Only 16 with more intensity, it might hinder the possibility of percent of land used for agriculture is irrigated, and farmers in a certain region to produce the products they around 40 percent of the world‘s harvest is produced are used to. Alternative varieties or the shift to other on this land. In Africa only seven percent of agricultural products might help to deal with the situation, but this land is irrigated (FAO 2007). For all non-irrigated land, will require that the affected farm households have the changes in precipitation patterns will have a huge impact necessary information on the expected changes and the on agricultural production. Rainfall will be influenced necessary resources or support to shift production. by the temperature increase, which will lead also to an increase in the evaporation almost worldwide. Because Freshwater availability will also be affected by changes more water will be in the atmosphere, more precipi- in the runoff of rivers. With the increasing humidity in tation will fall as a result of climate change – but not the atmosphere it is projected that the annual average

72 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS river runoff and water availability will increase by mid the ‘80s was basically achieved through a combination century. The increase expected are 10-40 percent in of high yielding varieties with the increase of irrigation high latitudes and in some wet tropical areas, however, water and agricultural inputs. The expected changes of decreases of 10-30 percent may occur in some dry re- river flows in the region will be an important trend for gions in mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics, some of the long term production potential of the region. which are already water stressed areas (Kundzewicz et al. 2007, 3.4.1). Since the TAR, over 100 studies have been published on climate change effects on river flows 3.2 Extreme weather events in scientific journals. Most of them are still focused on Europe, North America and Australia. While uncertain- Disaster losses from weather-related extreme events ties still exist relating to the downscaling from climate have grown much more rapidly than population and change models on catchment scale predictions, a very economic growth indicators (Kundzewicz et al. 2007, robust finding from hydrological impact studies is that 3.2; Mills 2005). There is now clear evidence for a cli- warming leads to changes in the seasonality of river mate change-related trend in floods during the last dec- flows where much winter precipitation falls as snow ade (Kundzewicz et al. 2007; Schiermeier 2006). What (Barnett et al. 2005). The IPCC FAR refers to serval is visible is the observed increase in precipitation inten- studies for all relevant regions, such as European Alps, sity and other changes, such as the increase in westerly the Himalayas, western Nothern America, central and weather patterns during winter over Europe. This trend eastern Northern America, the entire Russian territory, leads to very rainy low-pressure systems that often trig- and Scandinavia and Baltic regions (Kudzewicz et al. ger floods. These are the first indicators that climate 2007, 3.4.1). Temperature increase causes less water change might have an impact on rain based floods. So to come down as snow, and therefore winter flows will far the number of great inland flood catastrophes has increase and summer flows will decrease. In many cases doubled during the years 1996-2005 compared to the the peak flow would occur at least a month earlier than ‘50s up until the ‘80s. Economic losses have even in- today. creased five fold (Kron and Bertz 2007). However, the dominant factor for the upward trends in economic Higher temperature will lead to increased glacier melt. flood losses are socioeconomic factors, such as increas- The results from simulations lead to the conclusion that ing population and the increase of settlement in vulner- glaciers in the Northern Hemisphere will decrease in size able areas etc. Floods are currently the most reported up to 60 percent by 2050 (Schneeberger et al. 2003). natural disaster across the globe. In this connection the Melting glaciers will lead to an increase in river flow in World Development Report in 2003 abd 2004 reports the short term, but the contribution of glacier melt will about 140 million affected persons per year. In many gradually decrease over the next decades. Less snowfall countries they are the type of extreme weather events or earlier melting of snow will increase the seasonal- that cause the highest number of deaths (Figure 14). ity of the river flow, creating higher flow in the peak flow seasons or either lower flows during the low flow Drought affected areas will likely increase in extent season or extended dry periods. One sixth of mankind (IPCC 2007a). Several models predict that the pro- is living in areas with rivers nurtured by glaciers, par- portion of the land surface in extreme drought, will ticularly in the Himalayas (IPCC 2007b, 11). The melt- increase globally by the factor of 10 to 30, or from ing of these glaciers in the coming decades will change 1-3 percent today to 30 percent by 2090 (Burke et al. the river flow pattern of all mayor rivers in South and 2006). Droughts are first and foremost affecting rain- East Asia. This will impact both the access to drinking fed agricultural production and the water supply for do- water and water for personal consumption as well as mestic, industrial and agricultural purposes. However, it to irrigation water. The large increase of productivity in also impacts livestock (Table 10). It is already possible to agricultural production in Asia that has happened since show that some semi-arid and sub-humid regions of the

73 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Figure 14: Deaths attributed to different types of extreme weather events in 2006

1800

1600

1400

1200 Temperature extremes and mass movements 1000 Floodings 800 Storms 600 Number of Deaths

400

200

0 ) a ia ia s ia e . n A n in d s e p in p ta S ta h In e in io a e s U is C n p h kr R i n o p t . k a d ili E U m a h In h e P g P D f ( A a re o K

Source: based on Harmeling 2007

globe have suffered from more, more intense and multi- in turn will increase the risk of water and food-borne annual droughts (e.g. Kundzewicz et al. 2007, 3.2). diseases.

The term drought also refers to different factors. A me- Precipitation intensity is projected to increase almost teorological drought refers to reduced precipitation, everywhere, but particularly at mid and high latitudes, a hydrological drought to reduced river flows and re- causing more severe flash floods and urban flooding. An duced water levels in rivers, lakes and groundwater. increase of events with heavy precipitation is very likely, Agricultural drought means lower soil moisture. With and might damage crops and lead to soil erosion (IPCC the expected increase in area affected by drought, it is 2007a). It might increase the risk and/or inability to likely that water stress in semi-arid and land in low lati- cultivate land (IPCC 2007b). Heavy precipitation events tudes as well as in mid-latitude continental interiors in will simultaneously contribute at the same time to flood summer will be more widespread (IPCC 2007a). risks in the drought-prone areas. The amount and distribution of rainfalls will be important for food security. Processes of land degradation will intensify the negative Only slight changes in the arrival or amount of water impact on crop yields up, livestock death and crop fail- will influence certain crop yields dramatically. While ure. Reduced water availability will also lead to water the precipitation in the Sahel region has increased dur- shortages for food and domestic consumption, which ing the last decade, there is uncertainty over the future

74 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Table 10: Quantified impacts of selected African droughts on livestock, 1981 to 1999

Date Location Mortality and Species 1981-84 Botswana 20% of national herd 1982-84 Niger 62% of national cattle herd 1983-84 Ethiopia (Borana Plateau) 45-90% of calves, 45% of cow, 22% of mature males 1991 Northern Kenya 28% of cattle, 18% of sheep and goats 1991-93 Ethiopia (Borana) 42% of cattle 1993 Namibia 22% of cattle, 41% of goats and sheep 1995-97 Greater Horn of Africa (average of nine pastoral 20% of cattle, 20% of sheep and goats areas) 1995-97 Southern Ethiopia 46% of cattle, 41% of sheep and goats 1998-99 Ethiopia (Borana) 62% of cattle

Source: Easterling et al. 2007, 278

development (Lenton et al. 2008). Some models predict for regions which depend heavily on glacial melt water further increase. However, if this going to fall more infor their main dry-season water supply. In the Andes tensely and extreme precipitation events are going to region it will affect rivers fed by small glaciers in Bolivia, occur, this may cause damages rather than benefits. It Ecuador, and Peru and will be relevant for tens of mil- will be one of the regions where rain water harvest- lions of people during the long dry season (Coudrain ing could become one of the most important adaptation et al. 2005). In the Hindu Kush and Himalayas, areas techniques. Storm drainage systems need to be adopted are affected by reduced glacier melt in the long run, on to cope with increasing rainfall (Waters et al. 2003). which hundreds of millions of people in China and India A storm drain, storm sewer (U.S.), stormwater drain live (Barnett et al. 2005). (Australia and New Zealand) or surface water system (UK) is designed to drain excess rain and ground water The projected increase in the frequency of droughts and from paved streets, parkings lots, sidewalks, and roofs. floods is expected to negatively affect local crop produc- Storm drains vary in design from small residential dry tion, especially in subsistence sectors in low latitudes wells to large municipal systems. (Easterling et al. 2007, 5.4). More frequent extreme events may lower long-term yields by directly damag- While it is estimated that up to 20 percent of the world‘s ing crops at specific developmental stages, such as tem- populations live in river basins that are likely to be af- perature thresholds during flowering, or by making the fected by increased flood hazards by the 2080s as a re- timing of field applications more difficult, thus reduc- sult of global warming, river flows in many temperate ing the efficiency of farm inputs (Porter and Semenov regions during snow melt spring flood periods is likely to 2005). The potential effects of extreme weather on food decrease (Kleinen and Petschel-Held 2007). River basins security and human beings have to be seen in regional fed by snow-melt water in summer and autumn, when or local perspectives. When marginalized farmers start demand is highest, could become areas of temporal or to plant crops on steep hills, strong rains can easily de- seasonal droughts, particularly when, with rising tem- stroy their harvest. When people settle in areas often perature, precipitation is falling as rain and not as snow flooded by extreme weather conditions it will have an (Barnett et al. 2005). Drought problems are projected effect. Other examples could be given: These effects

75 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS from weather extremes have to be strongly judged in alone will change land prices and the possibility to se- connection with land use patterns and settlement pat- cure property with private insurances. terns. Both (the climate change effects and the land use patterns) have changed rapidly during the last decade It is also very likely that the frequency of heat waves and this fact increases the risks. will increase across most continents (IPCC 2007a). Heat waves can have a huge impact on the agricultural Droughts will also have a huge impact on livestock kept sector. The European heat wave in 2003 is a good ex- on grassland and pastoralism, as it is summarized in ample that can prove this connection. In the summer of Easterling et al. (2007). Warming up to 2°C is suggested 2003 Europe experienced a heat wave, with reaching to have positive impacts on pasture and livestock pro- 6°C above the long term means and precipitation defi- ductivity in humid temperate regions. Negative impacts cits up to 300 mm (Trenberth et al. 2007). Maize yields are projected in arid and semiarid regions, even under in Italy dropped by 36 percent for the Po valley. For this very positive scenario, while only a few studies ex- France, the corn grain crop was reduced by 30 percent ist on the impact for tropical grasslands and rangelands. compared to 2002 and the fruit harvest by 25 percent Thermal stress will contribute to reducing productivity (Easterling et al. 2007, 5.2.2). Heat waves will contrib- and is potentially life-threatening to livestock. Higher ute to reduced yields in warmer regions due to the heat temperatures might put an end to the diary production stress for crops and can add to already existing water of certain modern breeds (Friesians) in the tropics (King stress. The increase of the danger of forest fire and will et al. 2005). As shown in the chapter above, many of directly affect the health of many people. The European the world‘s rangelands are affected by ENSO events, in- heat wave in 2003 was a disastrous example of the pos- creasing the risk of severe vegetation degeneration. sible health impacts, more than 30,000 people died across Europe, making this heat wave the most severe Other weather extremes that are analyzed in the IPCC European natural catastrophe for centuries (Munich Re report are tropical cyclones and heat waves. It is likely 2007). However, it is likely that better preparation for that the intensity of tropical cyclones and the severity of heat waves in hospitals, nursing homes etc. will limit their impacts will increase, which is also due to the rise the impacts in the future. In terms of the connection in sea-level (see chapters 3.4 and 3.5). This will increase to climate change, studies found out the anthropogenic the risk of total failure of crops in a certain region. Trees greenhouse gas emissions already have substantially in- may be uprooted, damaging the income families accrue creased the likelihood of such kind of extremes across from using the trees and reducing future protection of central Europe. By 2050 such heat waves could become coastal areas. More intense tropical cyclones can also a usual phenomenon (Stott et al. 2004). damage coral reefs, which are inter alia of very high importance for the re-growing of fish stocks (IPCC 2007b). The increase in heat waves goes hand in hand with the Latest findings also show that tropical cyclones might trends of warmer and fewer cold days and nights and reach areas that were never before hit by cyclones, so with warmer and more frequent hot days and nights. that the risk areas for damages at coastal zones are in- Together these tendencies will increase the heat stress creasing. This was the case in 2004 when for the first for crops. While the second trend can be positive to time ever a hurricane formed off the Brazilian coast yields in colder environments, yields will be reduced in (Swiss Re 2004). More intense tropical cyclones would warmer environments (IPCC 2007b). also cause severe economic consequences for the affected regions and households. For example, in 2004 hur- In sum: The likelihood of weather extremes is increas- ricanes hit the Cayman Islands and caused economic ing both in frequency and intensity over all continents. losses that amounted to more than double the Gross Regional variation will be huge; different geographical Domestic Product of that year (Anemüller et al. 2006). conditions at specific locations will co-determine how Beside the loss of property the likelihood of cyclones disaster prone a certain area will be. One of the con-

76 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS clusions of the FAR of the IPCC is that the projected the long run but they are not discussed here in detail. changes in the This is particularly relevant for health related effects, such as changes in insects affecting human health and „frequency and severity of extreme climate wiht that also individual food securtiy circumstances. events will have more serious consequences for Increasing temperature above 2.5°C, projections sug- food and forestry products, and for food inse- gest major changes in ecosystem structure and function, curity, than will changes in projected means of species´ ecological interactions and species´ geographic temperature and precipitation“ (Easterling et al. ranges, with predominantly negative consequences for 2007, 299). biodiversity, and ecosystems goods and services (IPCC 2007b). Plants and crops will need to adjust to the glo- Modeling studies suggest that the increasing frequency bal temperature increase. In chapter 3.5 we will look of crop loss due to extreme weather events may elimi- into the changes that can be expected for crop yields of nate positive effects of moderate temperature increase major stable crops. Rice, wheat and maize have a limit (Easterling et al. 2007, 5.4.1). in temperature increase, beyond which grain yields are damaged. In tropical regions the limit is 1.5 to 3° C, For all of the extreme events, there are quite a number in temperate climate it is 4.5 to 5° C above. Further of climatic and non-climatic drivers influencing the im- warming in either regions exceeds adaptive capacity pact, all of which have to be taken into account. The (Easterling et al. 2007). In this chapter we will focus on impact of different types of flooding (flash floods, river the overall changes needed for plants, trees, and pluri- floods, urban floods etc.) is heavily influenced by non- annual crops. climatic drivers such as the human encroachment into flood plains or the lack of flood response plans. Drought Non-anthropogenic climate change has also forced impacts depend on factors such as changes in land use species to migrate in a palaoclimatic perspective. At patterns or land cover and water demand and use. the beginning of each cold period in the climate his- Excessive water withdrawals by urban cities or intensi- tory many trees, crops, and other species had to move fied agriculture are just two examples that might aggra- away from the poles or downwards into warmer valleys. vate the impact of a drought (Kundzewicz et al. 2007). Conversely, at the beginning of every warmer period plants and species started to move up towards the poles and uphill (Rosenzweig et al. 2007, 1.3; Confalonieri et 3.3 Moving of climate zones and other al. 2007, 8.2; Field et al. 2007, 14.2). A similar process ecosystem impacts of climate change is expected to happen with current anthropogenic climate change. The IPCC estimates that already at a tem- The expected global increase in temperature will have perature increase of 2°C above 1980-1999 levels will an impact on many ecosystems and will require change force around 20 percent of the world‘s eco-systems will and adaptation. Since healthy ecosystems are a key pro- have to move (IPCC 2007b). Due to the fact that entire vider of services relevant to food security, this notion systems can hardly migrate, the dominance of certain will impact food prospects. The IPCC FAR concludes lead varieties will change. The current observed trend is that there is very high confidence that recent warming about a 6 km per year move towards the poles (Fischlin is already strongly affecting all terrestrial biological sys- et al. 2007). tems, which will include earlier timing of spring events, and pole ward and upward shift in ranges of plant and There is a limit to the speed with which crops can animal species (IPCC 2007b). In this subchapter we will move over longer distances in order to grow there. summarize the main changes that are expected in eco- Unmitigated anthropogenic climate change will be systems and that are relevant for food security. Other faster than all processes of warming or cooling during changes might also indirectly impact food security in human history, and it will be too fast for many species

77 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Figure 15: Projected impacts of climate change on ecosystems

Source: Fischlin et al. 2007

to move. Moreover, such moves were historically pos- risk of extinction if global average temperature exceeds sible because nature had untapped space in which to a 2 to 3°C increase as compared to pre-industrial level migrate. It was not interrupted by cities or other major (Fischlin et al. 2007, 4.4.10 and 4.4.11). This scenario forms of land use, which now hinder such moves. In requires very substantive mitigation efforts. Current part climate change will lead to the use of crops which conservation practices are poorly equipped to deal with might not have been cropped in a certain country or the expected changes. An increase in temperature of 2 region before. However most studies do not believe that to 3°C over pre-industrial levels will already put more this potential is substantial enough to offset other losses terrestrial, maritime and freshwater species at the risk of in food production through climate change. extinction than in the recent geological past, inter alia because of the speed of the change. Ecosystems will react to external forcing in a non linear manner. Most initial changes in ecosystems seem Coral reefs are the habitat for about a quarter of all to dampen the impact, but amplify it if thresholds in marine species. These reefs contribute to food security magnitude or rate of change are surpassed (Fischlin et particularly in that they supply protein to subsistence al. 2007, 4.4.1). The temperature increase is projected fishers. They will be influenced by climate change by to lead to a huge loss in the number of species present, increasing surface water temperature and the acidifica- and therefore the potential of biodiversity. tion of the oceans. These changes are projected to result in greater vulnerability to thermal stress, to which most Approximately 20 to 30 percent of plant and animal species have a very low adaptive capacity. Increases in species assessed so far are likely to be at an increased sea surface temperature of about 1 to 3 °C are projected

78 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS to result in more frequent coral bleaching events and change drivers (e.g., land use change, pollution, widespread mortality (see also Figure 15). over-exploitation of resources)“ (IPCC 2007b).

In addition to the effects of temperature increase, extreme weather events may also damage or even destroy 3.4 Tipping elements – large-scale important ecosystem components. The relevant IPCC risks in the earth system chapter lists a number of examples of how extreme events can cause mortality of species, contribute to Trespassing of certain threshold values regarding the determining which species are present in ecosystems, rise of global temperature could cause abrupt and irre- and how droughts and heat waves have both short-term versible changes in the earth system. Not only is this a and long-term implications for vegetation (Fischlin et al. lesson learned from the earth‘s history, but it is increas- 2007). ingly being investigated by climate change scientists.

Climate change becomes a forceful external driver that The relation between global climate and the earth sys- will influence long-term food security at the global level. tem is a complex one, particularly due to the fact that It will endanger sustainability of natural processes and climate and non climate drivers interplay with one their services to human beings in the long run. Beyond another. Additionally non-linear processes include sev- the threshold of 2 to 3°C temperature increase above eral feedback loops and these loops are very difficult to pre-industrial levels, the IPCC projects predict. The history of the earth shows that non-linear processes have happened quite often, particularly in „substantial changes in the structure and func- the Holocene epoch. Ice shields have suddenly melted, tioning of terrestrial, marine and other aquatic ocean streams have frequently abruptly stalled and ecosystems“ (Fischlin et al. 2007, 213). monsoons have unexpectedly collapsed.

Ecosystems do have adaptive capacity but there seem Often small disruptions are sufficient to entail funda- to be thresholds which are likely to induce non-linear mental changes. Simulations based on the knowledge consequences and feedback processes. Also, the pace of abrupt climate change in the past and the scientific of change is particularly important. That is a key reason school of analyzing highly complex processes which why, in addition to limiting global warming to below was established in the 1970s support the finding that 2°C above pre-industrial levels, the German Advisory our climate and the earth system might react to the in- Council for Global Environmental Change has also increasing temperature due to the anthropogenic climate troduced a climate guard rail of no more than 0.2°C change with changes of enormous magnitude. increase per decade (WBGU 2003). Avoiding dangerous climate change, in accordance with However, it is important to underline that many eco- Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention systems are under immense stress from non-climatic on Climate Change (UNFCCC see chapter 1), requires human drivers, such as deforestation, urbanization and a better scientific understanding regarding the levels of unsustainable use of resources etc. Climate change adds temperature increase and atmospheric greenhouse gas to these stresses. Thus, the IPCC concluded that concentrations at which large-scale dangerous impacts are projected to occur with a certain likeliness. Major „the resilience of many ecosystems is likely to progress has already been made in this regard (Lenton be exceeded this century by an unprecedented et al. 2008). combination of climate change, associated disturbances (e.g., flooding, drought, wildfire, Two approaches have been developed to define the insects, ocean acidification), and other global challenge of „avoiding dangerous climate change“. One

79 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Figure 16: Map of selected tipping elements and their consequences

Source: Germanwatch, based on Schellnhuber

is based on assessments from the bottom and includes The AGGG developed two central indicators. The first the calculations of the impacts of climate change based was a 1°C increase in temperature over pre-industrial on linear trends in ecosystems, agriculture etc. The oth- levels; a higher increase was expected to lead to a fast, er is a top-down approach that attempts to avoid more unpredictable, and non-linear reaction and damage to substantive changes than those during the still ongoing ecosystems. At the same time the 2°C limit was intro- interglacial. duced as a ceiling to avoid risks of severe impact on ecosystems which could be aggravated by non-linear feed- One of the first approaches to calculate a threshold for back loops. The 2°C limit was later confirmed by the avoiding dangerous climate change came in the early 90s Scientific Council of the German government on Global from the United Nations Advisory Group on Greenhouse Environmental Change (WBGU). The WBGU also made Gases (AGGG). The AGGG was the pre-IPCC scientific a top-down assessment defining a ceiling above which advisory group in the UN. They started to systematically the risk of dramatic changes in ecosystems was seen screen scientific articles on climate change and studied (WBGU 1995). In 2003, the WBGU confirmed that historic processes of climate change. limit again in a bottom-up study, which concluded that

80 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS the expected losses of species and ecosystems would be „on the consequences of decisions enacted unacceptably high if temperature should pass the ceiling within this century that trigger a qualitative of 2°C (WBGU 2003). In addition, the WBGU urged change within this century, and we exclude limiting global warming to less than 0.2°C per decade. tipping elements whose fate is decided after 2100“. The 2°C limit is now guideline for policies. In March 2007 the EU decided to orient their climate and energy Figure 17 shows the estimated temperature for selected policies toward this limit (EU 2007). It has now become tipping elements. All of these points lie within the range one of the key negotiation issues for a shared vision of the IPCC emission scenarios for this century and thus for long-term cooperative action under the UNFCCC. could be triggered if no substantial emission reductions Norway, Iceland, Bangladesh, Chile, South Africa and are going to be achieved. It shows that even below a the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) join the EU 2°C temperature increase the Arctic Sea Ice is probably in explicitly supporting a 2°C (or even lower) limit. getting lost and that melting processes in Greenland may be irreversibly induced. A key reason for this new political backing is the increasing though still incomplete scientific understand- Many aspects of these highly complex processes are not ing of the so-called tipping elements in the climate sys- yet fully understood. The models that are used by cli- tem (see Lenton et al. 2008). Connected to the tipping mate scientists to analyze and project the tipping proc- elements are tipping points, thresholds of temperature esses are not yet advanced enough to illustrate these increase (or other changing factors) beyond which the dynamic processes with their multiple feedback loops. likeliness of large-scale impacts is significantly increased Additionally there is inherent uncertainty in these non through initiating non-linear and irreversible (at least in linear processes. In some of these systems minimal fluc- human dimensions) changes in the climate system. Or, tuations at decisive points can induce very different out- how Lenton et al. (2008) explain this concept: comes. Therefore, the anticipated developments are not deterministic predictions but rather well-justified scenar- Tipping element: A component of the Earth system, ios. On a scale of 0 to 100 Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, at least sub-continental in scale (~1000 km), that can be president of the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact switched – under certain circumstances – into a qualita- Research, estimates the reliability of the simulation re- tively different state by a small perturbation. sults for many of the feedback processes ranges „maybe at 30 to 50, for other only at 10“ (Schellnhuber 2007). Tipping point: The corresponding critical point – in forcing and a feature of the system – at which the future Latest observations and new publications show that state of the system is qualitatively altered. Greenland and the West-Antarctic already lose much more ice than expected in the IPCC FAR report John Schellnhuber from the Potsdam Institute for (Germanwatch 2007; Lenton et al. 2008). This obser- Climate Impact Research (PIK) developed the first map vation has particular relevance for global sea-level rise. of possible tipping points, Germanwatch developed this These processes are also a good example of how impor- map further (Figure 16). In some cases exceeding certain tant it is to take a closer look at scientific development temperature thresholds could entail dangerous positive since the IPCC presented the FAR in 2007. In the Fourth feedback effects (black), in other tipping elements there Assessment Report, the IPCC estimated the future sea- could be enormous direct consequences for human life level rise to be between 18 and 59 cm compared to – usually for many millions of people (grey). In other present levels (IPCC 2007a). The TAR report from 2001 cases both reactions could occur in parallel (grey-black). resulted in a projected increase of up to 88 cm. While For this analysis it is important to look at policy-relevant this may create the impression that sea-level rise has lost tipping points. Thus, Lenton et al. focus their report pace, this change is due to a number of methodological

81 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Figure 17: Selected tipping elements and its temperature thresholds (above 1980-1999 levels)

6 —

5 —

4 —

3 —

2 — Year 2100 range (IPCC 2007)

1 — Global warming above present temperature (°C) Atlantic meridional overturning circulation Arctic summer sea ice Greenland ice sheet Boreal forest West Antarctic ice sheet Amazon rainforest Sahara/Sahel and West African monsoon El Niño southern oscillation amplitude 0 —

Shading indicates uncertain thresholds. For each threshold, the transition from white to light grey indicates a lower bound on its proximity, and the transition from grey to black signifies an upper bound. The degree of uncertainty is represented by the spread of the color transition. Dotted lines were added by the authors; the upper line indicates the 2°C limit (above pre-industrial levels), and the lower line shows the temperature increase that can no longer be avoided due to the inertia in the climate system, even if all emissions were stopped by now.

Source: based on Lenton and Schellnhuber 2007; IPCC 2007c

reasons (see Germanwatch 2007). The main reason is The Greenland ice shield alone contains between 4 to 6 that certain processes have been excluded in the recent meter of sea-level rise. This process could be triggered at scenarios because the scientific assessment of these is a temperature increase of around 1 to 2°C above 1980 still in its early stage. The Greenland melting process to 1999 levels, which is equivalent to 1.5 to 2.5° C is partially being driven by the loss of Arctic Sea Ice, above pre-industrial levels. The Arctic sea ice loss tip- which in itself does not lead to higher sea-levels (be- ping point is estimated at 0.5 to 2°C above 1980 to cause the ice is already swimming in the ocean), but 1999 levels (Lenton et al. 2008). leads to a faster temperature increase in the North Atlantic Ocean and in turn further accelerates melting A recent paper by a group of scientists around James processes. Due to these processes, sea-level rise is now Hansen, which looked in more detail into some of the expected to rise by between 0.5 and 1.4 meters by the earth system‘s feedback, concluded that even at an in- end of the century (Rahmstorf 2007). Passing the tip- crease of 1.7°C above pre-industrial levels processes ping point in Greenland would likely trigger a melting triggered could result in a dangerous or even catastro process which could take centuries (in Greenland) but phic climate change, in particular because of the melt- would be irreversible with devastating consequences. ing process in Greenland (Hansen et al. 2008).

82 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Fast sea-level rises are nothing new, but a known phe- Some of the most fertile lands on earth are in low-lying nomenon from the past. About 20.000 years before today coastal zones. Table 11 shows that even at a sea-level the temperature was 4 to 7°C lower than today and the rise of 1 meter many countries would be severely af- sea-level was 120 meter lower at that time (Rahmsdorf fected in different regards. The situation will be very 2007, 193). Around 3 Million years ago, the tempera- difficult particularly for several of the small island states ture was 2 to 3°C higher and the sea-level was around (Tuvalu, Kiribati etc.), which have not been included in 25 to 35 meter higher than today. The examples show the analysis shown in Table 11. that substantive temperature related changes are possible. The historic oscillation of sea-level changes was It must also be mentioned that this analysis only looked influenced by a variety of factors and no simple equa- at the impacts of the inundated area, but there are ad- tion between temperature increase and size of sea-level ditional impacts like increased storm surge, erosion and rise can be made, but the trends are clear. Around 20 other coastal hazards, saltwater intrusion into rivers in percent of the world population lives in coastal areas delta areas etc. These will threaten vital infrastructure, not more than 30 km from the coast line. A World Bank settlements and facilities that support the livelihood study in 2007 estimated that with a sea-level rise of 1 people living along the coast. meter about 56 million people in 84 investigated developing countries would be directly affected through There are some tipping points which entail a bi- or permanent inundation (Dasgupta et al. 2007, 10). multistability, that means there are different directions

Table 11: Ten countries most affected by a 1 meter sea-level rise

Rank Population GDP Urban areas Wetlands Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam 1 (10.79) (10.21) (10.74) (28.67) Egypt, Arab Rep. of Mauritania Guyana Jamaica 2 (9.28) (9.35) (10.02) (28.16) Mauritania Egypt, Arab Rep. of French Guiana Belize 3 (7.95) (6.44) (7.76) (27.76) Suriname Suriname Mauritania Qatar 4 (7.00) (6.35) (7.50) (21.75) Guyana Benin Egypt, Arab Rep. of The Bahamas 5 (6.30) (5.64) (5.52) (17.75) French Guiana The Bahamas LIbya Libya 6 (5.42) (4.74) (5.39) (15.83) Tunisia Guyana United Arab Emmirates Uruguay 7 (4.89) (4.64) (4.80) (15.14) United Arab Emmirates French Guiana Tunisia Mexico 8 (4.59) (3,02) (4.50) (14,85) The Bahamas Tunisia Suriname Benin 9 (4.56) (2.93) (4.20) (13.78) Benin Ecuador The Bahamas Taiwan, China 10 (3.93) (2.66) (3.99) (11.70)

Source: based on Dasgupta et al. 2007

83 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS in which the system can tip. This particular holds for the note that most of the scenarios referred to do not take Indian and the West African monsoon or the El Niño into account the consequences of the potential non lin- phenomenon (see Lenton et al. 2008, for more details). ear effects which were discussed in the previous chap- If global warming is limited to below 2°C above pre- ter. Where possible, impacts resulting from the tipping industrial levels, then there is a relatively high probabil- of the described large-scale risks on food security issues ity that most of these tipping points will not be passed. are indicated. The summary of these findings will allow Hence, there is no reason for anyone to pretend that us to better understand the impact of climate change on there is an exact forecast of the future with regard to future food availability on a global and regional scale – if these non-linear, extremely complex processes. „We are major disasters can be prevented. In general it is im- conducting a disastrous experiment whose outcome we portant to note that currently around 40 percent of the are just about to see“, summarizes theoretical physicist Earth‘s land surface is utilized as cropland and pasture David Gross, who won the Nobel Prize in 2004 for his (Fowley et al. 2005). Natural forests cover another 30 contribution to quark research. percent of the land surface. Just 5 percent of the natural forest areas are provide 35 percent of global round „We do not have the appropriate instruments to wood. In developing countries, nearly 70 percent of anticipate the impacts of these drastic changes people live in rural areas, where agriculture is the larg- that we are talking about. The only serious cli- est supporter of livelihoods and income (FAO 2003b). mate experiment that we can conduct is the experiment that is done by emitting greenhouse The Third Assessment Report (TAR) systematized 2001 gases. Only when we actually experience these the ways on how climate change and variability might devastating non-linear effects we will truly impact on food, fibre, and forest around the world. The

know where this is leading“ (Germanwatch elevated level of CO2 will have effects on plant growth 2007, 14). and yield. Higher temperatures, altered precipitation, and transpiration regimes will be of high importance, as The risk of extensive discontinuities is a category of will be the increased frequency of extreme events, and particularly drastic dangers induced by the continuing modified weed, pest and pathogen pressure. These find- increase of global temperature. However, as has been ings are supported by most studies that were published shown before, there are other important risk categories, since then. and significant impacts from a rise in global mean temperature by more than 1.5 to 2.5°C compared to pre- 3.5.1 Effects on food production industrial levels have to be expected, independent of and agriculture the tipping elements. Results from different models are summarized in the IPCC FAR. Figure 18 shows the impacts relevant to 3.5 Effects on food production, food production and agriculture in different sectors. In agriculture and water, forest and fishing mid- to high latitude regions, moderate and medium lo- resources cal increases in temperature (1 to 3°C)12, along with associated carbon dioxide increases and rainfall changes, This chapter sums up research results related to the im- can have certain beneficial impacts on crop yields. In pact of climate change on food production, agriculture, low latitudes, however, even moderate temperature in- water, forestry and fishing resources. It is important to creases (1 to 2°C) are likely to have negative yield im-

12 If not indicated otherwise, following figures refer to an increase above the 1980-1999 average; to compare with pre-industrial levels, 0.5° C have to be added

84 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Figure 18: Sectoral impacts of climate change at different levels of temperature increase

The 19 footnotes refer to the 19 chapters of the IPCC Working Group II report from 2007. See Parry et al. 2007

Source: Parry et al. 2007, 66

pacts for major cereals. If temperatures increase above tive. But recent studies also confirm that these effects these levels, the impact will be negative for crop yields depend on a variety of other influencing factors: spe- in all regions (Easterling et al. 2007, 5.2). In summary, cies, growth stage, management regime, and water the FAR estimates that temperature increases from 1 to and nitrogen application (Ainsworth and Long 2005). 3°C will have a net positive impact on the potential for Nevertheless, on average, across several species, and food production, but that this effect will become nega- under unstressed conditions, the effect of an increase tive above this range of warming. of atmospheric CO concentrations at 550 ppm CO 2 2 would lead to an increase in crop yields between 10

The effects of elevated CO2 on plant growth and yields and 20 percent. The IPCC reports a common under- were reviewed extensively in the TAR. Plant response standing between plant physiologists and modelers that

to elevated CO2 alone, without climate change, is posi- the effects of elevated CO2, measured in experimental

85 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS settings and implemented in models, may overestimate Beyond the consequences from estimated changes in actual field- and farm-level responses. This fact is due to mean temperature or other mean variables alone, in- many limiting factors like pests, weeds, competition for creasing climate variability will additionally add to the resources, soil, water, and air quality, etc. (Easterling et negative impact of climate change. This is even more al. 2007). IPCC judges that the interplay of these fac- relevant for weather extremes. tors are neither well understood at large scales, nor well implemented in leading models. The IPCC concludes with high confidence that the projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme Many recent studies confirm that temperature and pre- climate events will have more serious consequences for cipitation changes in future decades will modify, and food and forestry production, and for food security, than often limit, the direct CO2 effects on plants. Higher will changes in projected means of temperature and pre- temperatures during the flowering season may lower cipitation.13 This relates to the increased frequency of positive CO2 effects by reducing grain number, size, crop loss due to extreme events, such as droughts or and quality. Increasing temperatures may also indirectly heavy precipitation (Easterling et al. 2007, 5.8.1). reduce CO2 effects by increasing water demand. Rain- fed wheat shows increases in yields up to 0.8°C at 450 More frequent extreme events may lower long-term ppm CO2, but declining yields with temperatures above yields by directly damaging crops at specific develop- 1.5°C. It would be possible to counterbalance these mental stages, such as temperature thresholds during negative effects with additional irrigation (Xiao et al. flowering. Crops do have threshold responses to their 2005). This is an illustration for a trend described by climatic environment, which affect their growth, devel- IPCC. For most crops there will be a yield-damaging opment, and yield. It might be yield-damaging, if unu- climate threshold. Below a certain increase, yields will sual weather appears during short window of time for increase, yet should the temperature climb beyond this the formation of reproductive organs, such as seeds or threshold, the effect would be negative. fruits. Unpredictable weather extremes will also make it more difficult to time field application. Smallholder At the same time, it is important to link changes in tem- farmers living off of rain-fed agriculture with low adap- perature development to other vectors that will change tation capacities will be those most affected. due to climate change. The climate impact on crops may significantly depend on the precipitation scenario Other important factors for food production and agricul- considered. Given the fact that more than 80 percent of ture are the impact of weed and insect pests, diseases total agricultural land and almost 100 percent of pasture on plants, and animal health. Results from the TAR have land is rain-fed, the future of precipitation changes will already shown that climate change will have an impact be the most influential for the direction and magnitude on weeds, insects, and diseases, and this concept has of the overall impact of climate change. Ecosystem func- been reaffirmed since then. The expected increases in tions are changed substantially by changes in precipita- temperature and precipitation can change plant dam- tion and in evaporation-precipitation ratios. age from pests. For example, recent warming trends in the U.S. and Canada have led to earlier spring activi- This effect will be of extreme importance for smallhold- ties of insects and to the proliferation of some species, er agriculture, which is very much dependent on rain- such as the mountain beetle (Crozier and Dwyer 2006). fed agriculture. They often miss out on the resources Additionally, an increase in weather extremes may pro- needed for irrigation agriculture. mote plant disease and pest outbreak.

13 IPCC notes that even the importance of climate variability is recognized, most studies contiunue to include only effects of changes in mean variables (Easterling et al. 2007, 5.4.1.3).

86 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Land available to agriculture will be affected through (Barker et al. 2007, 5). Forests are the biggest storage climate change. The reduction of precipitation in cer- of terrestrial ecosystems carbon stocks. The most retain areas (see below) will have the consequence that cent estimate is that forests sequester an equivalent of larger areas are no longer suitable for agriculture. Many 220 percent of atmosphere carbon (Sabine et al. 2004, crops will be affected and will no longer be able to be Figure 4.1). planted in certain regions (e.g. coffee regions in Kenya and Uganda are supposed to shrink). No exact data can The FAO estimates that 3.4 billion m3 of wood were be added to this claim, because, as it was previously removed in 2004, and around 60 percent of this wood mentioned, many other non-climate drivers interfere as was used as industrial round-wood (FAO 2005b). Only well. 4 percent of forest areas are managed by intensive forest plantations (FAO 2005b); but these limited forest Adaptation policies will also have an influential effect on areas supply about 35 percent of global round-wood. the availability of water in certain regions in the future. Intensive forest plantations are increasing rapidly, and If water-harvesting and irrigation systems are developed their share in global round-wood production is expected and become more efficient, the total net effect will be to increase to 44 percent by 2020 (FAO 2000). In addi- very different from the „no response“ scenario. tion to commercial timber goods, forests provide a huge number of non-timber forest products, most of which Recent and future land use changes and associated land- are important for subsistence livelihoods (Shvidenko et scape fragmentation are very likely to impede species‘ al. 2005). Forests also provide important environmental migration and impair their natural adaptation via geo- services as described by the IPCC (Fischlin et al. 2007, graphical range shift (Fischlin et al. 2007, 4.1.2, 4.2.2, 4.4.5). 4.4.10). This might produce important income changes for affected families. It remains to be seen if national ad- Modeling studies that examine the impact of climate aptation policies will support affected families or if only change on forests estimate an increase in global tim- bigger producers will be supported in order to maintain ber production (Fischlin et al. 2007, 4.4.5). Forests

their level of irrigation. will benefit from the fertilizing effect of increased CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. Higher growth rates 3.5.2 Effects on forests and location gains14 are predicted, particularly when the positive effects of elevated CO2 concentrations are taken Forests are ecosystems with a dense tree canopy, cover- into consideration. Although global timber productivity ing 30 percent of Earth‘s surface worldwide. In other is likely to increase, regional production will face large words, forests amount to around 4 billion ha. They cov- variability, similar to the trends discussed for crops. In er 42 percent of the surface in the tropics, 25 percent drought prone areas the effects will be different from bo- in temperate areas, and 33 percent in the boreal zone real areas where productivity might be increasing due to

(Sabine et al. 2004; Fischlin et al. 2007, 4.4.5). Forests higher temperatures and elevated CO2 concentration. require relatively favorable environmental conditions, and are among the most productive terrestrial ecosys- Since the IPCC‘s Third Assessment Report, new stud-

tems. Therefore, they are attractive for both climate ies have suggested that the CO2 fertilizer effect may change mitigation, but also for agricultural usage. The be overestimated in models. It was shown that the fer- current high rate of deforestation and degradation in tilizer effect is particularly strong in young trees, but tropical and subtropical regions is responsible for about that older trees hardly grow faster (Korner et al. 2005). 17 percent of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions Additionally, the fertilizer-enhanced growth period

14 This covers the expected poleward shift of most productive species due to climate change (Fischlin et al. 2007, 4.4.5).

87 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS might be limited by competition, disturbances, nutri- in some tropical and sub-tropical regions, particularly in ent limitations, or other factors (Fischlin et al. 2007, Southeast Asia and the Amazon. And in recent months 4.5.4.1). There are several other factors that are not we have seen a dramatic change in the positive trend in or not properly included in existing models. Examples the Amazon region. After falling for three consecutive include fire, insects, and extreme events. Warmer tem- years, deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon jumped peratures have already enhanced the opportunities for during the final five months of 2007. While the Brazilian insects to spread across the landscape (Crozier and government had previously taken credit for the decline Dwyer 2006). There is evidence of both regional in- in deforestation, the recent rise in logging confirms sus- crease and regional decrease of fire activities, with some picions that commodity prices – not policy measures reasons linked to climate change. Climate change might – are the primary determinant of forest clearing. Grain influence ignition sources, drought periods, and other and cattle prices have surged in recent months, boost- risks in the forest industry. Pulp and paper production ing development pressure on the Amazon – increasingly are particularly affected. For many forest types, pest and the agricultural heartland of Brazil (Butler 2008). disease outbreaks are a major source of concern. Degradation rates are also increasing in some northern The IPCC‘s Fourth Assessment Report has collected in- regions such as Siberia due to unsustainable logging formation on the effects of extreme climate events on practices (Lepers et al. 2005). While uncertainties about commercial forestry. It is region-specific and includes deforestation rates are considerably high, analyses show reduced access to forestland, increased costs for road a continuous trend in pressure from deforestation and and facility maintenance, and direct damage to trees by degradation on forests in critical areas for biodiversity wind, snow, frost, or ice. Among the indirect damages (Duraiappah et al. 2005). Contrarily, in most industrial- are wildfires, insect outbreaks, and recently, thaws on ized countries, forests are expected to increase. While logging rates (Easterling et al. 2007, 5.4.5.2). general land use change will dominate impacts in certain regions, climate change will also exacerbate biodiversity Interaction between different disturbances is very im- risks, e.g. in tropical montane cloud forests (Fischlin et portant and can increase feedback loops. For example, al. 2007, 4.4.7). severe drought increases mortality and is often seen in combination with insect and pathogen damage and The socio-economic impact of climate change on forests wildfires. Such positive feedback between deforestation, will be dominated by the relocation of forest economic forest fragmentation, wildfire, and increased frequency activities through a shift in production preferences (e.g. of droughts appears to exist in the Amazon basin, so towards bio fuels). The most important socio-economic that a warmer and dryer climate may trigger massive de- effects will be linked to income opportunities for forest- forestation (Laurance et al. 2004; Nepstad et al. 2004). based communities. Although these communities are This drought can be influenced by more severe magni- likely to have a modest impact on global wood produc- tudes of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This tion, they may be especially vulnerable because of their phenomena causes higher temperatures in the Atlantic limited ability as rural, resource-dependent communi- subtropics, e.g. in the Caribbean region, and leads to a ties to respond to risk in a proactive manner (Davidson, decrease in precipitation over the Amazon. At the same et al. 2003; Lawrence 2003). time, the rate of deforestation in this area is increasing. The IPCC concludes that very few current models can Non-timber forest products (NTFP) are an equally im- simulate these effects (Easterling et al. 2007, 5.4.5.2). portant source of income for the livelihood of rural communities (Easterling et al. 2007, 5.4.5.3). NTFP cover Land use change and the net global loss in forest cover fuel, forest food, medical plants, and other collected had slowed since the TAR (FAO 2001; Easterling et al. goods. The FAO estimates that in many rural communi- 2007, 4.4.5). However, deforestation rates are still high ties of sub-Saharan Africa, NTFP may supply over 50

88 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS percent of farmers‘ cash incomes and provide for the acidity. Other factors mentioned are the uncertainty of health needs for over 80 percent of the population (FAO future water supplies from river flows for fish farms, the 2004a). increase in extreme weather events, the increased frequency of diseases, the expected sea-level rise, and the This is a similar result to concerns from the impact of conflict of interest with coastal defense needs. Positive food production and agriculture. While the net effect on impacts are seen in increased growth rates, an increased global productivity might be modest – which itself is not length of growing seasons due to increasing ocean tem- a sufficient claim as models do not take into considera- perature, and range expansion for fish species and action all effects of climate change and non climate drivers cess to new areas of the oceans due to the decrease in – it is obvious that poor rural communities are the most ice cover (Easterling et al. 2007, 5.4.6). affected. They will lose income which is often gained without secure property rights. It will be very difficult The current rate of overfishing is huge (www.overfish- to get any compensation for these types of income. Such ing.org). Overfishing is an important non-climate driver communities and people will have the greatest difficul- that undermines the long-term availability of fishing ties in getting attention in adaptation policies. resources, and thus negatively impacts food security. Nevertheless, it is interesting to study the specific im- 3.5.3 Effects on fisheries pact climate change might have on fishing resources. The following impacts are likely to occur at an increase Fish, crustaceans, and mollusks can be either captured in temperature of more than 2 to 3°C above pre-indus- or grown in aquaculture. Although the capturing of fish trial levels (Fischlin et al. 2007, 4.4). has decreased every year by 1 percent since 1979, aqua-

culture production has increased by 59 percent. Still, One general trend resulting from an increase in CO2 capture production generates twice as much as aqua- concentration in the atmosphere will be an increase in culture production. However, FAO data estimate that ocean acidification. This phenomenon will aquaculture production will reach the size of capture production by 2030. World fishing resources are already „impair a wide range of planktonic and shallow overused or depleted in many regions of the oceans, benthic marine organisms that use aragonite to and aquaculture will become increasingly important. make their shells or skeletons, such as corals Around 2.6 billion people receive an important part of and marine snails (pteropods), with significant their protein supply from fish (FAO 2008). impacts particularly in the Southern Ocean, where cold-water corals are likely to show large The IPCC compares aquaculture with animal husband- reductions in geographical range this century“ ry because they share similar vulnerabilities and adapta- (Fischlin et al. 2007, 213). tion needs to climate change. These similarities include ownership issues in access and use of land and water, Ocean acidification can become a profound source of the control of inputs, diseases, and predators (Easterling change in the long-term productivity of oceans. The et al. 2007, 5.4). Aquaculture is also dependent on cap- acidification will hinder all species that require arago- tured fish, because fish often needed as a food source for nite to build their body from shells as well as coral reefs the aquacultures. (Fischlin et al. 2007, 213). The IPCC calculates that the pH-figures of the oceans are decreasing by 0.14 to The principle conclusions from the TAR concerning 0.35. It is possible that by 2065 few regions will be left aquaculture and fisheries remain valid and are confirmed where species that build their bodies with aragonite can with the FAR. The negative impacts of climate change on live. Consequently, the whole system of food chains in aquaculture and freshwater fishing include stress from the ocean will be affected, and fish production will be increased temperature, oxygen demand, and increasing adversely impacted (WBGU 2006).

89 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Some studies estimate that fish growth can increase due 3.5.4 Effects on pasture and livestock to higher temperatures; however, other studies show production that temperature increases in the wrong season could negatively affect fish populations and risks incurred on Grasslands and rangelands cover large areas all over the upper end of these populations‘ thermal tolerance. the world, and more than 200 million people still make their living from pasture and livestock production (FAO A direct effect of temperature increase is the rapid pole 2007). Grasslands are the dominant vegetation type of ward shift of species in regions where the temperature areas with low rainfall, such as steppes in Central Asia change is rapid. Local extinctions are occurring at the and prairies in Northern America, but they can also be edges of current ranges. Not only acidification, also cli- found in regions with higher rainfall. Rangelands can be matic change will affect the food chain for fish. Research found on all continents, mainly in regions where tem- in the Pacific and Atlantic suggests that nutrient sup- perature and moisture restrictions limit other vegetation ply for fisheries is declining due to reductions in the types. Pasture and livestock production systems range Meridional Overturning Circulation (Easterling et al. from extensive pastoral systems to intensive systems 2007, 5.4.6.2). based on forage and grain animal feed, where animals are kept indoors. This has resulted in a reduction of primary production with regional variability (Lehodey et al. 2003).The IPCC In general, studies expect climate change to positively concludes that the aggregate level the effects of changes impact pasture and livestock in humid temperate rein primary production due to climate change related im- gions. The elevation of CO2 will influence the combi- pact of the food chain are unknown, even when some nation of species growing on grassland and rangelands. regional sutdies are available. The future development of grasslands will also depend on management factors such as grazing and non cli- Another problem will be the pole ward spread of patho- mate drivers like fertilizer supply. Experiments support gens, particularly through temperature increases in win- the possibility of rapid changes in species composition ter. Regional climate variability, such as the so-called El and diversity due to climate change (Easterling 2007, Niño events (ENSO) in the South Pacific, can have ma- 5.4.3.1). The IPCC concludes that global extrapolations jor economic impacts on fishing communities in their are still unclear. Experiments in the Mediterranean have respective regions. El Niño is a climatic anomaly fre- shown that plant diversity decreases with elevated CO2 quently ocurring in the south pacific between Southeast and nitrogen desposition, and increases with elevated Asia and South America. precipitation, but showed no significant effects from warming (Zavaleta et al. 2003). Changes in the forage

Through complex ocean-atmosphere interlinkages, El quality are also quite likely, because elevated CO2 will Niño leads to the warming of the Humboldt stream off lead to a possible reduction in crude protein. Thermal the South American East Coast which negatively im- stress is likely to reduce productivity and conception pacts on the fishing productivity, because the warmer rates. In some parts of the world, drier and hotter peri- water contains realtively less nutrients. El Niño usus- ods can potentially become life-threatening for livestock, ally leads to extreme precipitation events in that region as has it been the case in the past 20 years (see chapter and droughts in the West Pacific. Negative effects of 3.2, Table 10). higher temperatures are expected for inland lakes. The decline in fish catches in Lake Tanganyika since the late The most decisive factors for grasslands and rangelands 1970s has been related to climate-induced increases in will be the effects caused by weather extremes and the vertical stability of the water column, resulting in a changing weather variability. These impacts will be far reduced availability of nutrients (O´Reilly et al. 2004; greater than effects associated with the average changes Easterling et al. 2007, 5.4.6.2). in climatic conditions. This finding is very similar to the

90 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS finding for the impact on agricultural production in gen- Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (CESCR) adopt- eral (Easterling et al. 2007, 5.4.3.1). Non-preparedness ed the General Comment No. 15 to the International to extreme weather events often results in losses of live- Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Human stock. Many rangelands might be affected by potentially Rights (ICESCR) concerning the right to water. The intensified ENSO conditions (see in chapter 3.1). General Comment confirmed the fundamental human right to water and showed it interrelatedness for the In dry regions, reduced precipitation can lead to severe realisation of any other human right (CESCR 2002). vegetation degeneration, which in turn contributes to Improved water management is seen in many circum- desertification, soil erosion, and the possible loss of pas- stances as an essential element for the long term avail- toral areas. Pastoralists, who live in Africa and Asia at ability of water to people. Unmanaged water systems the fringe of the big deserts and in the savannas and are likely to be most vulnerable to climate change. mountainous regions, are among the most vulnerable groups related to climate change. Droughts and de- The impact of climate change on freshwater will be creased water availability can be directly life-threatening huge.15 Climate change will change precipitation pat- for the livestock and the pastoralists. Recent research terns and increase the variability of precipitation. The shows declines in rainfall in some major grassland and risks of flooding and droughts will increase in many ar- rangeland areas, particularly in South America, South eas (Kundzewicz et al. 2007, 3.3.1). Climate change and North Africa, Western Asia, Australia, and Southern will also affect river flow in many regions of the world. Europe (IPCC 2007b). Increased variability of rainfall may create more severe soil moisture limitation and will „In a warmer world, less winter precipitation have an important impact on productivity (Luscher et falls as snow and the melting of winter snow oc- al. 2005). curs earlier in spring. Even without any changes in precipitation intensity, both of these effects The general impacts described here need to be analyzed lead to a shift in peak river runoff to winter and in terms of their respective socio-economic consequenc- early spring, away from summer and autumn es. The impact of climate change on livestock keepers when demand is highest. Where storage capaci- and pastoralists will vary greatly from country to coun- ties are not sufficient, much of the winter run- try, and therefore need to be studied in a decentralized off will immediately be lost to the oceans. With manner. Livestock production between prairies in the more than one-sixth of the Earth‘s population U.S. and pastoralists in many arid and semiarid regions relying on glaciers and seasonal snow packs for can hardly be compared. The most negative impacts will their water supply, the consequences of these be seen for producers in arid and semiarid regions. hydrological changes for future water availability – predicted with high confidence and already 3.5.5 Effects on water resources diagnosed in some regions – are likely to be severe“ (Kundzewicz et al. 2007, 3.3.1, quoting Changes in the availability of water will be an essential Barnett et al. 2005). factor influencing food security effects of climate change. But water is not only relevant for food production and The expected sea-level rise will extend the salinisation processing; it itself is an important good, needed for sur- of groundwater and estuaries, resulting in a decrease vival and almost all human activities. Access to water of freshwater available for humans, agriculture, and for domestic consumption is regarded as a universal hu- ecosystems in coastal areas (Kundzewicz et al. 2007, man right. At the end of 2002, the UN-Committee for 3.4.2).

15 The findings will be summarized here. Most trends have already been described in more detail in chapter 3.1 and 3.2.

91 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Semi-arid and arid regions are particularly exposed to the Water management systems used currently are very impact of climate change on freshwater. Efforts to offset likely to be inadequate to deal with the negative impacts declining surface water due to increases in variability from climate change on water supply reliability, flood will be hampered by the fact that groundwater recharge risks, health etc. Water-related management has to be will also decrease in already water-stressed regions. The build around the fact that the increase in climate-related number of people living in water-stressed countries, variability is respected. That will make adaptation to cli- defined as those using more than 20 percent of their mate change easier. available resources, is expected to increase substantially over the next decades – irrespective of climate change. Drastic changes in the monsoon regime in both Asia and Population increase, the sharp increase of water demand West-Africa are possible or even expected. Because of from growing mega-cities, and the overuse of water re- the bistability of these systems and a complex interplay sources for irrigation projects etc. are some of the driv- of different drivers (mainly albedo change and climate ing forces for increased water demand (Neubert et al. change), it is highly probable that we will see non linear 2008). Particularly in the next few decades, population changes in these regimes, but it is not clear in which and other non-climate pressures are likely to be more direction, – stronger, weaker, or even a total collapse of important than the effects of climate change, although e.g. the Indian monsoon (Lenton et al. 2007). some regions may already be badly affected by climate change consequences during this period (Kundzewicz Changes in the amount and variability of rainfall, as well et al. 2007, 3.2). In the longer term, however, climate as melting glaciers will have major impacts on water change becomes much more important. availability, agriculture, and food security. Around 70 percent of all water consumed worldwide is used in ag- Adverse effects of climate change on freshwater systems riculture. The increase in global productivity of agricul- might aggravate the impact of other water stress factors ture since the late 1970s was only possible because of such as population growth, changing economic activ- the increase in irrigation areas. ity (both for irrigation agriculture but also for increasing industrialization), land use changes, and urbanization Besides this global perspective, it will be the regional or etc. Exacerbating factors such as the link between land local changes that will determine the impact on particu- degradation, climate change, and water availability are larly poor people. Potential changes in the precipitation generally unaccounted for in the global assessments. regime in rain-fed agricultural areas will require drastic adaptation measures. Changes in river runoff will have One landmark study on the risk of climate change was similar impacts on many forms of agriculture. produced by Parry et al. (2001). This study estimated the additional millions at risk for different temperature 3.5.6 Effects on health and nutrition levels and time horizons: Only in recent years have there been more studies on One of the major factors relevant for the future water possible health effects of global warming. Also IPCC has situation in Asia is the increased water demand from given health issues substantive scope and space. Climate mega-cities in India and China. It is not clear whether change will induce many health-related effects; some or to what extent additional water resource options will examples include the health impacts that more intense be available for these cities. This uncertainty may have heat waves and weather extremes will cause. broad implications for environmental flows of water in major rivers of China, India, and Tibet. It would change As an example: In 2003, at least 30.000 people died all water calculations for these regions if the mega-cities during the summer heat wave in Europe (Munich Re of India and China should seek large-scale diversion and 2007b). Climate change also could increase the preva- impoundments of flows in the region. lence of certain diseases such as malaria, cholera, and

92 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS dysentery. The spread of diseases, such as malaria and eas, e.g. in the mountains of the East African highlands diarrhea, will affect labor availability for agriculture as (IPCC 2007b). Access to clean water might be the big- well as non-farm economic activities. gest climate-related health risk. At the same time, the availability and quality of water is very influential in the Also, the aggravation of malnutrition and infectious prevalence of diarrhea and thus the utilization of food. diseases can move upwards into areas of higher altitudes and higher geographical regions. For example, Climate-related health risks will be not being discussed temperature increase is likely to shift the altitude limit here in detail, but they can be extremely important in for malaria upwards, spreading malaria risk to new ar- determining or influencing the food situation.

Figure 19: Climate change and food security

FOOD AVAILABILITY FOOD ACCESS

 Direct effect on coup yields  Direct impact on agricultural zones (cereals, vegetables, fruits&edible effecting incomes and jobs, and the macro oils). Rangelands and meat production, economy, which in turn shape livelihoods in a fisheries and wild food sources; trough number of ways, e.g. forms of social protection

alesvated CO2 levels, variations in temperature, and precipitation and length of growing  Direct effect on human health and susceptibility seasons, increases in crop pests and diseases to diseases such as malaria and HIV/AIDS which un- and altered soil fertility (e.g. trough desiccation dermine livelihoods capability and food security (4). and salination. (1)  Indirect alterations to socio-economic  Indirect environmental feedbacks aspects of livelihoods, food systems and trough responses such as use of Climate Change development processes through hu- marginal lands increasing deg- & man responses, e.g. land-use and radation and influencing adaption responses (5) micro and macro- Food Security climates. (2)

NUTRIENT ACCESS

 Direct effects on the nutrient content of foods, including protein contents, glutin content of grains, and toxin levels from pests and diseases (6).

 Direct effect on human health and thus ability to absorb nutrients trough increasing vulnerabili ty to disease (such as HIV/AIDS and malaria), affecting sanitation systems, drinking water (7).

Source: based on Boko et al. 2007, 455

93 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS 3.5.7 Effects on food insecurity highly uncertain. One reason is that they focus mainly on food availability; they do not cover reactions by af- All four dimensions of food security, namely food avail- fected communities in stabilizing food supplies, and they ability (production and trade), stability of food supplies, are based on a limited number of crop models. Given access to food, and food utilization (FAO 2003a) will the complexity of factors analyzed and the dependence likely be affected by climate change. Figure 19 sum- on reactions of affected communities, governments, and marizes how the impacts of climate change previously the international community, these studies are highly described influence the state of three dimensions of uncertain, but they help to understand the dimension food security. Other influencing factors are the social of the problem and the complex net of influencing fac- economic impacts and changes in trade flows, stocks, tors. and food aid policy. Some findings on the overall development of climate The impact concerning food availability will be mixed change with regard to food security are summarized and vary regionally (FAO 2005b). A reduction in the in the IPCC report (Easterling et al. 2007, 5.6.5, Table production potential of tropical developing countries, 12). many of which are already faced with poor land and water resources and serious food insecurity, is quite likely. 1. The number of people at an additional risk for hun- At a global level, the production potential is expected to ger primarily depends on the development of socio- increase if average temperature increase is limited to 1 economic indicators, and poverty reduction progress is to 3°C. The higher the temperature increases, the more projected to lead to a decline in the number of people the production potential will decrease (IPCC 2007b). at risk by the 2080s. Climate change in most scenarios Food insecurity will be further affected by loss of culti- reduces the decline of people at risk. For this trend the vated land and nursery areas for fisheries (FAO 2003a). IPCC FAR has found medium confidence, i. e. 5 from 10 Access to food and stability of that supply will be hit articles go into this direction. Parry et al. (2004, 2005) by changes of increased frequency and intensity of ex- estimate reductions by more than 75 percent by 2080, treme weather events such as flooding and droughts. which would be 560-700 million less hungry than the Food access might be impacted through economic prob- 820 million in developing countries by FAO estimates lems and direct health-effects of climate change; health today. By contrast, in an A2 scenario, the number of problems can be related to reduced access to clean wa- hungry will decrease slightly until 2080 because of the ter, flooding, or inundation due to drought, sea-level larger population projections as compared to other SRES rise, or increased precipitation. Increasing exposure to scenarios. vector-borne (e.g. malaria) or water-borne (e.g. cholera) diseases (Easterling et al. 2007, 5.6.5). This might be 2. The role of the CO2 fertilizer effect significantly in- one of the factors, which limits the capacities of affected fluences the results of some scenarios. Excluding this people to utilize the food consumed. uncertain effect leads to significantly higher numbers of people at risk in A2, with up to 100 percent more peo- A number of studies have attempted to quantify the imple at risk compared to non-climate change scenario. pacts of climate change on food security at regional and However, this varies with the different scenarios. global scales (e.g. Fischer et al. 2002, 2005; Parry et al. 2004, 2005; Tubielo and Fischer 2006). These studies All projections show that the realization of the MDG 1 are based on complex modeling frameworks that inte- (reducing the percentage of the hungry by half) will not grate outputs from General Circulation Models (GCM) be met until 2020 or 2030. with climate science, agro-ecological zone data, and/or dynamic crop models as well as socio-economic models. At this time in the debate, it needs to be asked whether They are all – in the judgment of the IPCC FAR – still these assumptions are too optimistic. No reduction in

94 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Background to IPCC scenarios technologies, and A1B on a mix of fossil and non fossil technologies. The A2 family is also oriented towards The scenarios of future climate change are part of the economic growth but is less influenced by globalised IPCC reports. Working with different scenarios takes factors. Regions keep their local identities, fertility is into account that we are not dealing with deterministic hardly declining, and world population is steadily systems. Emission trends and climatic reactions can dif- growing. No dominant pattern for technology choices fer - we do not know the future. In order to develop can be observed. a common and standardized method, the IPCC developed a Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) in The B family is more ecologically oriented. B1 is a 2000 in which different scenario-families are defined scenario family based on a more globalized scenario (IPCC 2000). with intense cooperation. The same development of the world population is assumed as in the A1 family. The SRES scenarios are based on different assumptions Under 1, there will be a fast move toward a service of how the future will look and which trends are possi- and information-oriented economy, which goes hand ble concerning population development, economic de- in hand with a decrease in material, energy intensity, velopment, consumption patterns, and political frame- and the introduction of clean and resource efficient work conditions. All models developed by the IPCC technology. It is a path where global solutions for an describe possible trend descriptions/storylines without economic, social, and environmentally sound develop- an explicit climate change policy. The models do not ment are desired. make a prediction or prognosis of the most likely development to happen. They are model families/storylines Like A2, B2 is much more regionally-oriented. The whose function is to calculate different development world is searching for local solutions for the econom- scenarios and compare their impact. The four scenario ic, social, and environmentally-sound development families used in IPCC literature can briefly be summa- based on regional economic development trends. rized in the following way: World population is increasing, but less strongly than in A2. Economic growth is reduced compared to B1, The A family is more economically oriented. The A1 and less rapid and more diverse technological changes family is oriented toward rapid economic growth com- are assumed as compared to the B1 and A1 storylines. bined with a globalized setting in which regions cooper- While all of the scenario techniques have methodologi- ate strongly toward cultural and social integration. The cal limits as described above, they nevertheless help rate of world population is declining after the middle to identify trends and allow comparison of emissions of the 21st century. Per capita income disparities are from the different scenario paths. More details to the likely to be reduced. The A1 family has three different different scenarios of SRES can be found in the study sub-scenarios, depending on the dominant technology IPCC 2000. The IPCC report is shortly introducing the framework used. A1f is based on the continuous use of Emission Scenarios in the Summary for Policymakers fossil intensive technologies, A1T is built on non-fossil (IPCC 2007b).

the number of hungry has been achieved since 1996 folk will suffer from complex impacts of climate change. despite significant economic growth (FAO 2007). In re- These groups, whose adaptive capacity is constrained, ality, hunger today is much more persistent than was will experience negative effects on yields of low-latitude estimated in 1996. The IPCC estimations are particu- crops combined with a high vulnerability to extreme larly optimistic given the fact that the IPCC report also events. As shown above in chapter 2, these groups cur- concludes with high confidence that smallholder and rently make up 80 percent of the hungry. If their situa- subsistence farmers, pastoralists, and artisanal fisher tion changes and they become negatively affected, the

95 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Table 12: Impacts of climate change and socio-economic development paths on the number of people at risk for hunger in developing countries

2020 2050 2080 Millions at risk Millions at risk Millions at risk Reference AEZ-BLS DS SAT-BLS AEZ-BLS DS SAT-BLS AEZ-BLS DS SAT-BLS A1 663 663 208 208 108 108 A2 782 782 721 721 768 768 B1 749 749 239 240 91 90 B2 630 630 348 348 233 233 Climate change AEZ-BLS DS SAT-BLS AEZ-BLS DS SAT-BLS AEZ-BLS DS SAT-BLS A1 666 667 219 210 136 136 A2 777 805 730 722 885 742 B1 739 771 242 242 99 102 B2 640 660 336 358 244 221 Climate change,

no CO2 AEZ-BLS DS SAT-BLS AEZ-BLS DS SAT-BLS AEZ-BLS DS SAT-BLS A1 NA 726 NA 308 NA 370 A2 794 845 788 933 950 1320 B1 NA 792 NA 275 NA 125 B2 652 685 356 415 257 384

Data from Parry et al. 2004 ; Tubiello et al. 2007: The first set of rows in the table depicts reference projections under SRES scenarios and no climate change. The second set (CC) includes climate change impacts, based on Hadley HadCM3 model output, including positive effects of elevated CO2 on crops. The third (CC, no CO2 ) includes climate change, but assumes no effects of elevated CO2. Projections from 2020 to 2080 are given for two crop-modeling systems: on the left, AEZ (Fischer et al. 2005); on the right, DSSAT (Parry et al. 2004), each coupled to the same economic and food trade model, BLS (Fischer et al. 2002 2005). The models are calibrated to give 824 million undernourished in 2000, according to FAO data.

Source: Easterling et al. 2007, 299

estimations from most of the models are all extremely affected by hunger that will be hurt most. Additionally, positive and unrealistic. In the longer term, there will be all of these models do not take into account non-linear additional negative impacts from other climate-related climate effects and most of them not even the increased processes. Such processes include snow-pack decrease intensity and number of weather effects. The potential (especially in the Indo-Gangetic Plain), sea-level rise, loss of the summer monsoon in central and south Asia and the effects of the spread in prevalence of human would have major repercussions on hunger figures. diseases affecting agricultural labor (Easterling et al. 2007, 5.4.7). Another robust trend is that sub-Saharan Africa is likely to surpass Asia as the most food-insecure region. In Therefore, most models used above to calculate the out- 2080, sub-Saharan Africa may account for 40 to 50 come of climate change on food security are extremely percent of all undernourished people compared to 24 optimistic, because it will be the current groups of people percent today (Easterling et al. 2007).

96 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Estimates of persons additionally affected by hunger and Countries and groups of countries are hit differently. food insecurity should therefore be used with utmost Many studies indicate that developing countries as a care. The following figures from the IPCC and other whole are likely to lose in comparison to the developed relevant literature (Schellnhuber et al. 2006) refers to nations. India, for example, is projected to experience the potential additional number of people at the risk of significant losses with large areas of current cropland hunger. The actual number of hungry people will de- losing significant productivity. At all levels of warm- pend on how much hunger can be reduced in the coming, a large group of poor, highly vulnerable developing ing decades. A warming of around 1°C as compared countries is expected to suffer increasing food deficits. to preindustrial times produces relatively small damage It is anticipated that this will lead to higher levels of when measured from the point of increased risk of hun- food insecurity and hunger in these countries. They will ger and/or undernourishment over the next century need support to cope with and finance the necessary (around 10 million more at risk). In this temperature adaptation measures. Developed countries will not be range, nearly all developed countries are projected to immune to large effects of climate change on their agri- benefit, while many tropical developing countries are cultural sectors. estimated to experience small but significant crop yield growth declines. A warming of 1°C to 2°C compared to preindustrial times could triple the number of people at 3.6 Most affected: rural livelihoods – risk for hunger by the 2080s, particularly hunger related subsistence and smallholder agriculture to weather extremes and the increasing variability of climate patterns. The impact of climate change will be particularly substantial to smallholder and subsistence agriculture. Their The risk of damage begins to increase significantly with livelihood systems, particularly in low latitudes, will be warming between 2 and 3°C above preindustrial times. greatly affected by climate change. The farming system While developed countries may still benefit within this will be affected by the previously described changes in

temperature range, literature indicates that production temperature, elevation of CO2, and precipitation on in this range is finely balanced between the effects of yields of both food and cash crops. The productivity increased temperature and changes in precipitation. of livestock and fisheries systems will be affected, as ‚Drier‘ models show losses in North America, Russia, well as the potential income from collecting activities and Eastern Europe, whereas ‚wetter‘ models show in- in forests. All of these income sources will be affected creases. One study shows rapidly rising hunger risks as- by changes in the mean conditions and the increase in sociated with a 2.5°C warming. 45 to 55 million extra frequency and intensity of extreme events. people are put at risk for hunger by the 2080s from this level of warming, and this number rises to 65 to 75 mil- Other physical impacts of climate change important to lion for a 3°C warming (Easterling et al. 2007). Another smallholder farmers are the decreasing water supply study shows that a very large number of people, 3.3 to through the reduced flow of rivers which feed irrigation 5.5 billion, may be living in countries or regions expect- systems, the effects of sea-level rise on coastal areas, the ed to experience large losses in crop production poten- increase of intensity of tropical storms, and changes in tial at 3°C warming. For a 3 to 4°C warming, one study other environmental conditions (e.g. more forest fires). estimates the additional number at risk of hunger is in the range 80 to 125 million, depending on the climate The impact of climate change on subsistence and small- model used. In Australia, a warming on the order of 4°C holder agriculture, pastoralism, and artisanal fisheries is likely to put entire regions out of production, with was not discussed in the Third Assessment report of the lesser levels of warming causing substantial declines in IPCC; however, the FAR is taking up the issue. It is not the west and the south (all figure studies mentioned in mentioned systematically, but chapters 3 and particu- the para are taken from Easterling et al. 2007). larly chapter 5 also cover the impact on these groups

97 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS in short subchapters (Easterling et al. 2007, 5.4.7). Adaptation can be better managed if good government The specific impact must be examined in the context support and response is developed and implemented. of many different changes and impacts on many different factors at regional and local levels. The FAR is also summarizing a number of new case studies which look more specifically into the impact of climate change on smallholder livelihood systems. Some studies look more into the effects of adaptation policies on smallholders (Thomas et al. 2005), while others study the impact of climate change on crops for smallholder agriculture (Adejuwon 2006) or on ecosystems for smallholders (Lasco and Boer 2006).

The coping capacity of smallholder farmers depends on a variety of factors. One important factor is their geographical situation. Some regions will be hit harder than others. That fact might even change from region to region in a smaller scale. The farming system will be influenced, because some crops might lose a lot, and others might do fine with certain changes in the region. Another important factor is the available family assets that can be used to react to the situation. Some examples include the skills and labor capacity of a family and other income sources such as remittances.

In general, it is not easy to show direct causal links between climate change and specific family situations, because livelihood systems are typically complex and include a number of interfering factors. For example, many smallholder livelihoods are comprised of a variety of income sources like the use of wild resources from forests, remittances, and other non agricultural income strategies. These livelihoods can also involve systems re- quiring several crop and livestock species. Government support can also play a role, but as of now, many smallholder farmers are marginalized in national and international agricultural policies. Therefore, support is often unavailable or insufficient.

Effective adaptation policies should start here and support coping and adaptation strategies for poorer groups in rural and urban environments. Coping strategies are characterized by changes in the relative importance between different income opportunities and will vary with factors influencing the income situation of families.

98 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Part II

Response capacity to climate change – nationally and internationally

4 Response capacity in ing the last decades. Communal water supply might be- developing countries come a major problem in southern Europe when water becomes more scare. Melting permafrost might destroy access to certain parts of northern Europe for months Responding to climate change is already and will con- during the year because certain routes will no longer be tinue to be a challenge for all countries worldwide. The available for transport. size of the impact will vary from country to country and particularly depend on each area‘s specific adaptive The situation in many developing countries looks very capacities. For some countries, the changes will be ex- different. On one hand most developing countries have tremely difficult to manage, and for others it looks like capacity limitations making adaptation more difficult. On it will be easier to cope with the expected scale of the the other hand there are some oil exporting countries, problem. or countries like Singapore and China, where financial resources are not the problem. Limitations include both Industrialized countries will have many more resources human capacity and financial resources. In most coun- to deal adequately with the challenge of adaptation. tries, there is a lack of scientists and university institutes They have research institutions that can study the ex- which can generate reliable scenarios for the expected pected changes on micro- and meso-levels, which is impact of climate change. Financial resources will be ex- a precondition for the design of effective adaptation tremely tight in many developing countries, in contrast policies. They have well functioning administrative to the expected size of the problem. Non-functioning in- structures in all parts of their countries, and they have frastructure, insufficient administrative capacities, and the financial resources which allow the development missing political will are factors that will influence the of complex and potentially costly adaptation policies. development of adaptation policies in many countries. While these resources are available in principle, the re- The mobilization of financial support is increasingly be- ality will look much more complex and difficult. Often coming an international issue both at the level of UN exact information on the local effects of climate change climate negotiations and in development organisations is missing or is not available in enough detail. Some and banks. solutions might lead to conflict, for example if people need to be resettled in order to improve adaptation in- Financial support will be needed because the expected frastructure such as dams etc. One can expect many costs for adaptation measures in developing countries debates on questions of: Who is responsible to finance will be substantial. There is the obligation, both in legal and implement what type of adaptation policies, what and ethical terms, of the countries who have contrib- is the responsibility of the government, what needs to uted most to the problem to assist those that are most be financed by affected cities or families themselves etc. affected. Depending on emission scenarios, the magnitude of the impacts from climate change might be so substantial Adaptation to climate change will require simultane- that adaptation will require deep and profound changes ous changes in several policy areas. Therefore, success in the way certain policies have been implemented dur- will depend on both coordinated action between differ-

99 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS ent ministries and also coordination between different very limited coping capacities and resources to adapt governance levels (national, regional, and local). The to the changing circumstances. This fact means that the UNFCCC summarizes the output from several work- government‘s role in adaptation might be bigger than in shops and meetings carried out under the Nairobi Work industrialized countries. Program on Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability as follows:16 The most effective adaptation approaches for Chapter 4 will summarize the dimension of the adapta- developing countries are those addressing a range of tion problem for developing countries. It will study and environmental stresses and factors (UNFCCC 2007c, analyze the response capacity and limitations different 29). Strategies and programs need to be linked with co- actors have at the national level. It will look first into the ordinated efforts aimed at poverty alleviation, enhanc- overall dimension of the problem, and then will address ing food security and water availability, combating land the climate information available at national levels. The degradation, and reducing the loss of biological diversity following sub-chapter will discuss the response capac- and ecosystems services. ity at the national level, regional level, and household level. After that, the relevance of insurance mechanisms Many developing countries face difficulties integrating as a means to support and incentivize adaptation will climate change concerns into national policies. Key bar- be addressed. Chapters 5 and 6 will study the response riers include issues around information, institutions, capacities available at the international level and look inclusion, incentives and international finance (IDS into the currently available instruments for financing 2007). This is aggravated by the fact that those coun- adaptation measures and the potential needs. They will tries which will be hit hardest and that are required also discuss how adaptation to climate change in the to radically change policies are often particularly poor agricultural sector can be linked with policy choices to countries. Adequate adaptation policies will entail ad- mitigate the climate impact of agriculture. justments and changes at all policy levels – from the household and community level to the national and international levels. Communities must build their resil- 4.1 Dimensions of the problem ience, including adopting appropriate technologies and using traditional knowledge. They need to adapt and 4.1.1 Adaptation diversify their livelihood strategies to cope with current and future climate stress. The selection of required ad- The dimension of the problems linked to adaptation to aptation measures will depend on the local and national climate change will be huge for developing countries. circumstances. Local coping strategies need to be used The IPCC report shows that poorer countries will be rel- and encouraged together with governmental responses atively more affected by the impact of climate change. at all levels. Their limited capacities to react are one important reason for this particular affectedness. Adaptation policies Developing countries will be additionally confronted cover a variety of interventions17 from the ability to esti- with the problem that not only governments, but also mate changing weather conditions, particularly extreme most affected households or communities will have weather events, and establish early warning systems, to

16 The Conference of the Parties in 2004 (COP10) requested the UNFCCC secretariat organize three regional workshops in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, as well as one expert meeting for small island developing states (SIDS) to discuss adaptation priorities. The seminars took place in 2006 and 2007 and a synthesis report summarizes the identified adaptation needs and concerns, particularly those across all regions (UNFCCC 2007c).

17 A detailed overview of adaptation measures for key vulnerable sectors are shown below in Chapter 4.3.

100 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS infrastructural investments in methods and techniques by spatial scale: local, regional, national, of disaster management like dams or other mechanisms of flood control. They cover the change in the use of by sector: water resources, agriculture, tourism, agricultural crops, varieties, irrigation, and land use public health, etc; techniques to support affected families in order to cope with various needs. These needs could cover the cost by type of action: physical, technological, invest- of other forms of damage to the house or land of the ment, regulatory, market; family, or even the necessity to migrate. According to the IPCC, by actor: national or local government, international donor, private sector, non-governmental organization „adaptation practices refer to actual adjust- (NGOs), local communities, and individuals; ments, or changes in decision environments, which might ultimately enhance resilience or by climate zone: dry land; floodplains, mountains, reduce vulnerability to observed or expected Arctic, etc.; changes in climate” (Adger et al. 2007, 720). by baseline income/development level of the sys- A large number of planned and unplanned adaptation tems in which they are implemented: Least Developed options exist, which can be differentiated along several Countries, middle income countries, and developed dimensions (see Adger et al. 2007, 720): countries;

Table 13: A typology of adaptive responses: examples from food production and food security

Response Proactive Reactive Inaction International Guidelines for national adaptation Measures of food aid No actions to initiate changes strategies are being taken

Development of new crops National Grain storage Changes in taxes and Small infrastructure invest- dispenses to increase food ments which only would profit Agricultural policy to alter crops and imports and emergency aid local population are not under- farming practices taken Local Investments in rainwater harvest- Mutual support Migration as a response option ing, irrigation and protection from is ignored flooding

Implementation of seed banks

Local coordination Individual Diversification of income sources Migration Accepting individual increased vulnerability and reduced well- Investments in education being

Changes in agricultural practices

Source: based on Adger et al. 2006

101 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS by an identification of most vulnerable groups: small will be built around existing sector policies, empha- holder farmers, fisher folk etc; sizing the importance of including long term climate change consideration into the sectoral planning. or by a combination of these and other categories. Multi-sectoral adaptation options relate to the manage- Another approach is to differentiate between proactive, ments of livelihood systems or natural resources which reactive, and inactive responses as Table 13 shows. span sectors, for example, the integrated management of water or river basins. Multi-sectoral adaptation poli- Analytically, the IPCC further differentiates between cies will be essential for national adaptation strategies, two categories of adaptations: but will require a much higher institutional capacity to deal with the necessary complexities. Cross-sectoral „autonomous adaptation, which is the ongoing measures are measures that need parallel and coordi- implementation of existing knowledge and tech- nated development in several sectors. Examples could nology in response to the changes in climate include the development of systematic observations and experienced, and planned adaptation, which is monitoring systems for the effect of climate change or the increase in adaptive capacity by mobilizing the development of an effective science and research institutions and policies to establish or strength- network at the national level dealing with problems en conditions favorable for effective adaptation such as forecasting and early warning. and investment in new technologies and infrastructure“ (Easterling et al. 2007, 294). In conclusion, while some priority actions need to be implemented urgently to adapt to the short-term conse- The IPCC uses this differentiation of adaptation meas- quences of climate change, adaptation must be viewed ures in Chapter 5 on „Food, fibre and forest products“, as a long-term challenge for societies. „Mainstreaming“, because in agricultural context farmers were always or the integration of adaptation into sectoral and other adapting to changing weather conditions. There is a cer- policies and programs at different levels of decision mak- tain amount of autonomous adaptation capacities among ing, will be necessary. It requires a prominent role for local communities and within ecosystems. The advan- the reduction of vulnerability to climate change. tages of this IPCC differentiation are that it looks into the coping strategies and capacities which are available In addition to sectoral responses, ecosystem manage- locally to adjust to the changing circumstances without ment plans that allow multi-sectoral approaches that any government interference. This perspective helps to deal with whole livelihood systems are also needed. At identify, on the other hand, the need for planned inter- the same time, adaptation policies must address nega- ventions, because the available coping capacities might tive effects for the most vulnerable groups in order to be very limited. The issue of coping capacities will be avoid hardship for these groups most affected by climate taken up in chapter 4. change. Tompkins and Hultman (2007) argue that

One way of grouping adaptation options is to identify „the best approach to reducing vulnerability whether they are sectoral, cross-sectoral, or multi-secto- must be at the heart of any adaptation strategy ral (UNFCCC 2008). This differentiation is particularly and adaptation policy“. helpful for identifying responsibilities within governments. The standard form for the design of adaptation The identification of vulnerable groups has to be measures will be sectoral. Sectoral adaptation measures achieved in a rights-based form, by identifying which look at actions of individual sectors affected by climate groups within a society will be threatened by the main change, such as agriculture, coastal zones, or for fresh consequences from climate change. In their opinion ad- water-related effects. Adaptation policies in one sector aptation must also include

102 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Table 14: Synergies between the MDGs and climate interventions

Goal Impacts of climate varia Role of climate interventions Outcomes: climate sensitive bility development planning Goal 1: Extreme climatic events Short-term risk reduction Short-term risk reduction trigger acute hunger from Eradicate ex- loss of agricultural produc- Climate-based food insecurity Local capacity built to respond treme poverty tion, cause loss of infra- early warning increases lead- rapidly to disaster, crisis and and hunger structure. time, aids targeting of relief pre-crisis conditions. efforts Climatic uncertainty is a Fewer public resources spent disincentive to investment, Risk reduction in longer term on disaster rehabilitation and intensification, technology planning relief and on reconstruction; adoption, fertilizer use, more public resources avail- Climate information (monitor- and high value agricultural able for positive development ing and prediction) empowers enterprises. progress. poor farmers to better manage The poor are trapped in a risk, and to exploit opportunity Risk reduction in longer term downward, vicious cycle in favorable years. planning of increasing poverty and Climate information pro- Small-holder agricultural asset loss, because they vides opportunity to spread practice is resilient to climate never recover from climate risk through social insurance variability. shocks. schemes that provide a safety net for the poor during climatic Stronger economic growth due shocks. to resilient irrigation, land use, cropping and trade policies. Prediction of hydro-climatic ex- Generates macroeconomic tremes helps societies prepare and investment strategies that and mitigate disasters, reduc- minimize recessive impacts. ing losses in infrastructure and productive activities Goal 4: Poor sanitation from both Climate monitoring and fore- Plan for water storage and de- water shortages and flood- casts help identify high risk livery implementation, invest- Reduce child ing contribute to morbid- areas prone to water contami- ment, design and maintenance. mortality ity and mortality from nation based on water short- diarrheal diseases. ages or flooding. Develop national and regional capacities to plan for, anticipate Malaria (whose endemic- Climate forecasts can prompt and react to epidemics. ity and epidemicity are malaria early warning, increas- impacted by climate) during ing lead-time for mobilization Understand long term impli- pregnancy is associated and distribution of resources to cations of climate change on with lower birth weight, remote areas. disease distribution and socio- increased infant mortality. economic vulnerability.

103 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Goal Impacts of climate varia Role of climate interventions Outcomes: climate sensitive bility development planning Goal 5: Climate variability impacts Climate-based food insecurity Develop resilience in food pro- on food production and early warning increases lead- duction, storage, and markets Improve maternal nutrition; affects pregnant time for organizing interven- by taking into account com- health women and the develop- tions. prehensive climate sensitive ment of embryo and fetus. socioeconomic data. Climate prediction provides Pregnant women are more advance information for activat- Develop understanding of likely to contract and die of ing relevant aid and raising dynamic health distribution, malaria. awareness on the ground (e.g., socioeconomic impacts, capac- maternal education programs). ity and resource needs in the face of changing climate conditions. Develop understanding of climate impacts on health distribution. Goal 6: Climate variability influ- Climate monitoring supports Combined understanding of ences endemicity and targeting high-risk areas. climate history, climate impacts Combat HIV/Aids, epidemicity of malaria and and affected socioeconomic malaria and other other infectious diseases Climate-based early warning factors to be used in prioritiz- diseases transmitted by insects. increases lead-time of epidemic ing, designing, implementing detection, prevention, and con- and maintaining health care Climate variability impacts trol of climate sensitive diseas- investments. on food production and es, e.g., malaria early warning nutrition; affects suscepti- can facilitate activation of funds Develop and maintain commu- bility to HIV/AIDS, malaria, for preventive measures and nication and response networks and other diseases. medicines and their distribution that use the best applied to remote areas. climate information. Goal 7: Climate variability con- Water reservoirs can be man- Long term sustainability and/ straints both quality and aged more effectively for or impact mitigation through Ensure quantity of water supply. multiple purposes under both adaptation to climate change environmental scarcity and surplus, using reli- policies, designs and applica- sustainability Resource management able climate forecasts. tions. regimes fail because they ignore the impact of Managing rangelands based Biodiversity conservation to climate variability, e.g. for on understanding of climate take into account climate vari- water or pastures. human-livestock interactions ability and change. enhances sustained produc Resource degradation is tivity. Improved designs of water blamed on people who infrastructure systems, using are actually responding to climate information, mitigate climatic variations. adverse environmental consequences of extreme climatic events.

Source: Germanwatch based on Columbia University 2006

104 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS „correcting maladaptations – for instance, by no sources available? What role will powerful groups with longer providing flood insurance in ways that vested interest play in the national policy setting? These encourage risky development in flood zones.“ questions need to be answered. They are just some examples of the potential conflict that could be caused 4.1.2 Response capacity in the context of resource allocation. A human rights- based approach will help to identify the first priorities The first problem in designing adequate adaptation poli- by giving criteria for the setting of priorities, as we will cies is that response strategies are needed – often in par- see later in chapter 4.6 and chapter 10. allel – in all of these areas. The responses, particularly the overall integration of adaptation, have to involve The formulation of adaptation policies require many many different governmental institutions at the central, administrative skills and long term planning processes regional, and local level. Government decisions about based on scientific evidence and advice. One problem new housing areas, financing crop research, and infra- which is particularly important in developing countries structural investments in flood control or water storage is that disaggregated research on the impact of climate have to consider the potential impacts of climate change. change at the local level is still only rudimentarily avail- Dealing with the long term perspective and with the able. Such knowledge gaps in climate data go hand in necessary multi-sectoral or cross-sectoral complexities hand with poor or, at times, non-existent social data on requires sufficient institutional capacities in the differ- land ownership, land cadastres, and population census- ent institutions involved, from research institutions to es etc. This can lead to a situation where certain groups line ministries to city or district administrations. are not properly registered and will be overlooked in the design of adaptation policies. Moreover, many of the decisions require priority setting. What are the measures that need to be financed first? It will not be an easy task to mobilize the necessary What types of investments in infrastructure are given political will for these types of necessary substantive priority? Because many issues are of high relevance for changes. Adaptation policies might require supporting affected people, priority setting will be difficult. The certain groups that have not been in the focus of nation- National Adaptation Programs of Action (NAPA) have al policies or which have been marginalized in national been useful in initiating priority identification and creat- policies until now. They might change the flow and dis- ing methodologies (see e.g. Harmeling, Burck, and Bals tribution of public resources in countries, between dif- 2007). But there is a high risk that setting priorities in ferent regions or ethnic groups etc. the management of climate change impacts will over- look or marginalize those groups who have not been Moreover, adaptation policies need to have a long term in the centre of national policies. They might be mar- focus, which might be missing in national policies based ginalized again if their situation is not prioritized in the on four or five year election cycles. Many developing allocation of resources. Poor groups in society who are countries, particularly those involved in resources ex- already marginalized might get the least attention in the traction, are more oriented towards short term gains formulation of national adaptation strategies. and policy goals. Shifting policy towards long term sustainable management of resources will be a challenge. Countries will be confronted with conflicts over the use Poverty might also be a reason why affected communi- of financial and other resources available to deal with ties or households will not be able to finance the neces- the consequences of climate change. Discussions on sary long term adjustments needed. how to best use these resources will occur. Will the resources be spent in rural areas or cities? Which sector However, relying on short or medium term solutions will get more attention in national adaptation policies? might even aggravate the effects of climate change. Are specific groups able to obtain a larger share of the re- When farmers are without the money and the skills to

105 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS change agricultural techniques toward reduced water Other forms of weak governance relate to countries consumption, they might start overusing the still exist- with wide-spread corruption and inefficient government ing water reserves even faster than before. That is an- institutions. Such situations will make it very difficult to other reason why the development of adaptive respons- develop a long term response towards a realistic adap- es has to be linked with actual development priorities tation policy to climate change. Again, these are situa- as much as possible. Adaptation means safeguarding tions where it must be examined how the international developmental work rather than just dealing with an community can effectively support affected groups and environmental challenge. In that sense, it is very im- persons to respond to the situation. portant that as many climate-related interventions as possible contribute to development goals, such as the MDGs (Table 14). 4.2 Climate information and climate science Problems will also occur because many decisions on adaptation policies need to be taken in a situation of Adaptation policies will need to start with good know uncertainty. Still, much data is missing in most parts of ledge about the impact of climate change on different the world on the local impact of climate change. But sectors, actors, and regions in a country. Without suf- even with the best available data, uncertainty will be ficient information and services to collect or to use avail- part of the picture. The variability of the weather is able data, it will be difficult to design an adequate policy likely to increase. The chaotic behavior and feedbacks response. of many parts of the weather and earth system prevent exact regional forecasts. And the insecurity surround- While research on impacts at national or even sub-na- ing emission trends, international support activities, and tional levels has started in many countries, data cover- regional economic developments all add to the overall age in other regions is still very low. The situation is well uncertainty. Countries can react to this uncertainty by summarized by a study from the Earth Policy Institute increasing their scientific and risk management capaci- at Colombia University: ties. Exchange of experiences with other governments and institutions will be a key challenge in order to use „Over relatively long timescales (i.e. 30 years or scarce resources as effectively as possible. more) and larger spatial scales (i.e. hemispher- ic or global), today‘s climate change models A number of countries that will be affected by climate broadly agree, both with each other and with change are currently in difficult governance situations. physical theory about what is likely to happen There are countries involved in ongoing civil wars, such in aggregate, at least with regards to anthropo- as Sudan or Chad. Some of these struggles are particu- genic climate change. At shorter timescales and larly protracted because they are loaded with ethnic on local and regional scales, there is consider- or religious conflicts. Some countries are in a situation able disagreement among the models, making where several armed groups operate; these various it difficult to reach conclusion“ (Hellmuth et al. groups include private armed groups, such as war lords, 2007, 8). private security groups protecting extractive industries, or paramilitary groups. Adaptation policies are difficult This sentiment is particularly true for poorer countries to design and implement in these types of situations, where adequate models to calculate the regional impact because no rule of law and no ordinary administrative are least developed. Regarding the already observed capacities are available. But even these countries are changes, not totally neglecting the issue. Chad and Sudan both have developed National Adaptation Programs of Action „there is, however, a notable lack of geographi- (NAPAs). cal balance in data and literature on observed

106 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Figure 20: Africa‘s climate information gap

15 2

3 Metrological stations per 10.000 km

0 r e s e n ia e g a m d g a n u a b o n i d a iq r u d a N u z b e C g rl S n v n e a m a i h T za a K t o ic d e r e N M f it e A n h U T

Source: based on UNDP 2007, 173

changes, with marked scarcity in developing related forecasts are limited. This starts with predictions countries“ (IPCC 2007b). of atmospheric conditions, which makes even the normal weather forecast more difficult. Data on sea tem- This statement is important even though progress has perature could help to scale up climate information to been made since the Third Assessment Report (see also seasonal forecasts. Seasonal forecasts are the most use- Figure 20). ful planning data for agricultural activities.

The gap in climate information and climate science is For longer term strategic planning in rural development still huge. They lack national research capacities as well policies pre-estimations over a time span of 10 to 30 as computing capacity in order to do the necessary cal- years (decadal variability) are relevant. Getting better culations. Many developing countries, particularly the data for seasonal and decadal variability, and making poorer ones, lack data on all relevant levels, including these applicable to farmers‘ daily lives, will be of utmost historical meteorological data, and well-functioning importance for the adequate design of adaptation poli- meteorological monitoring systems specifically for the cies. analysis of particular weather events like heavy rainfalls leading to floods, or drought periods. Fortunately, the situation is slowly improving in several developing countries, because of more international The missing data basis and limited research capacities data becoming locally available, satellite data supple- are leading to a situation where all forms of climate- menting ground observations, and an increasing cli-

107 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS mate modeling capacity (Hellmuth et al. 2007, 5). But 1992). The workshops organized by UNFCCC on ad- there is still concern that not all internationally available aptation needs of developing countries highlighted the data – including that from stakeholders such as global need for international support in collecting necessary reinsurers – is regionally accessible. information and having access to existing data sources (UNFCCC 2008e). For countries to better understand their local climate and thus be able to predict local implications of climate The UNFCCC workshops also concluded that climate change, they must have adequate operational national data is not the only thing needed to effectively assess the systematic observing networks, and they must invest vulnerability and adaptation needs to climate change in into these networks. The networks should have access developing countries. to data available from other global and regional networks, be it in the hands of the United Nations such „Equally important, and very much lacking at as the data from the World Meterological Organization present, is the need for accurate socio-econom- (WMO) or data collected by private companies such as ic data“ (UNFCCC 2008e, 5). Munich Re and Swiss Re, the biggest reinsurance companies in the world. For example, the WMO has initi- Without a poverty sensitive assessment, it will be impos- ated Regional Climate Outlook inter alia in the Greater sible to get an adequate overview about the vulnerabil- Horn of Africa, Southern and West Africa, Asia, and ity of households and communities in a given region or Southern and Central America. country. Countries therefore need to develop sufficient assessment capacities in order to do a proper risk and Still, many developing countries do not have access to vulnerability assessment. While international support is such information and scientific services. Access to such useful, countries will need to urgently build up such as- data will allow inputs for local climate models and a spe- sessment capacities domestically in order to guarantee cific adaptation plan to be provided. Monitoring trends an adequate policy response. of sea surface temperature and sea-level are essential to assessing their impacts on the increased intensity of Secondly, it is important for governments to guarantee tropical cyclones and storm surge. Monitoring weather that climate information available at national or region- data will help to predict extreme events which are in- al levels is distributed to those groups in civil society fluencing precipitation in different regions and leading which support or represent vulnerable groups. Still to- to floods and droughts, such as the phenomenon of El day, many farming communities and rural areas do not Niño. have access to existing agricultural extension services or to the meteorological data available in the country In addition to the access to data, it is important that (UNFCCC 2008e). countries have sufficient human resources to use the weather and climate information available and to help Many decisions taken in the „autonomous adaptation“ maintain a minimum recommended density of weather by farmers, fisher folk, or pastoralists will be of better stations. These services need to be financed nationally, quality when they have access to such information in but developing countries must also have the opportuni- an applicable manner. This will influence decisions such ty to finance information flow and an adequate scientific as when to start planting, and what type of seed varie- infrastructure with financial flows from international ad- ties are to be used etc. Even for existing early warning aptation funds. systems, the last mile – from a development perspective, this is the last mile –, which cannot be bridged Article 5 of the UNFCCC obligates the international with technologies, is the biggest hurdle. It is important community to support and further develop climate re- to find out how disaster assistance can be further opti- search and systematic observation systems (UNFCCC mized in this regard.

108 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS 4.3 Climate-related insurance Many developing countries lack an insurance tradi- approaches18 tion and market, which will take time to develop.

Insurance instruments that provide financial security Perhaps most importantly, insurance must be consid- against droughts, floods, typhoons, and other weather ered within an overall risk-management and adaptation extremes have emerged as an opportunity for develop- strategy. The two top priorities are avoiding dangerous ing countries to reduce poverty and adapt to climate climate change and preventing human and economic change. This issue has increasingly gained importance in losses. the UNFCCC negotiations, e.g. in the Bali Action Plan. This opportunity is due to a number of recent innova- The benefits of insurance must be viewed together with tions: Greatly increased computer capacity is making it the costs, keeping in mind the urgent need for other possible to model and price low-probability risks; index- types of adaptation and also poverty reduction measures. based insurance contracts are providing a low-cost al- Insurance benefits those in the risk pool by spreading ternative to traditional indemnity-based insurance; and their losses temporally and geographically, and assures novel mechanisms for transferring catastrophe risks to timely liquidity for the recovery and reconstruction the global financial markets are opening new windows process (which can, itself, save lives and livelihoods). for reinsurance arrangements. Emerging financial risk management opportunities for the developing world, There are also significant transaction and other costs although not at all the only solution for adapting to in- to providing insurance, and over the long run insured creasing climate risks, can play a critical role in reducing clients can often expect to pay more than their antici- economic and human losses from weather extremes, pated losses. This is especially the case for insuring ca- and in providing necessary security for investments nec- tastrophes. Unlike other types of insurance (e.g., life or essary to escape poverty. health), catastrophes affect whole regions or countries at the same time (co-variant risk). The insurer‘s cost of While insurance can be valuable in reducing the long- backup capital, diversification, or reinsurance to cover term effects of climate disasters on poverty and develop- co-variant claims can raise the premium far above the ment, it is important to recognize that insurance instru- „actuarial fair price“ or the client‘s expected losses. ments, particularly if not supported by donors, cannot be a panacea for adapting to climate change. There are So what is the rationale for governments, households, many reasons for this, including: and farms to insure? The textbook rationale for insurance is based on the concept of „risk aversion“, which Insurance is generally not appropriate for very slow- simply means that risk-averse persons prefer less con- onset climate impacts, such as sea-level rise and deser- sumption, if it is steady, to higher consumption, if it is tification, which are considered uninsurable. Other in- highly irregular or even subject to catastrophic short- struments are needed in this case. falls. Even risk-averse agents, however, should not purchase insurance if they have lower-cost alternatives Without government or donor support, private infor providing post-disaster security. These may include surance is not easily affordable by governments, house- accumulated assets/savings, post-disaster borrowing, holds, and firms in highly exposed and vulnerable coun- kinship arrangements, and government/donor support. tries. Here the opportunity costs of private risk-financing These alternatives appear to work reasonably well for instruments can be prohibitively high in terms of meet- low-loss events, but are often unreliable and inadequate ing other human needs. for catastrophic events (Cohen and Sebstad 2003), in

18 This chapter builds on Linneroth-Bayer, Mechler and Bals 2008 (forthcoming)

109 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS which case households may be forced to sell produc- In sum, insurance is not appropriate in all contexts and tive assets at very low prices; post-disaster inflation may will generally increase, not decrease, the expected fi- greatly reduce the value of savings; money lenders may nancial cost of disasters to the clients. In cases where exploit their clients; entire families, even if geographi- agents (households, farms and governments) have cally diverse, may be affected by large disasters; and lower cost alternatives to providing post-disaster liquid- donor assistance rarely covers more than a small per- ity after disasters, insurance may not be advisable. In centage of losses (Mechler et al. 2006). In other words, many contexts, however, these alternatives are ineffec- insurance can have significant advantages over informal tive (especially for large catastrophes), in which case security arrangements, especially for the very high con- agents should weigh the benefits of insurance with the sequence events. costs. These benefits include, first and foremost, security against the wholesale loss of assets, livelihoods and Likewise, if governments do not have the necessary even lives in the post-disaster period. Insurance not only infusion of capital after a disaster to rebuild critical in- provides the liquidity to smooth disaster shocks, but by frastructure and assist households and businesses with enabling productive investments has the added benefit their recovery, the indirect costs can greatly exceed the of helping high-risk agents escape disaster-induced pov- direct losses from the disaster. Such delays can lead to erty traps. secondary economic and social effects, such as deterioration in trade, budget imbalances, and increased inci- Novel and imaginative programs are demonstrating their dence of poverty. potential to pool economic losses and smooth incomes of the poor facing weather variability and climate ex- An often overlooked but highly significant rationale for tremes, as well as transfer risks to the global capital mar- investing in insurance is the security it provides for tak- kets. These schemes provide insurance to (1) farmers, ing on productive but risky investments. Due to high property owners and small businesses (micro scale), (2) uninsured risk exposure, households and farmers may to donor agencies charged with providing disaster relief adopt low-risk, low-return strategies (e.g., placing rela- (mesa scale), as well as to (3) governments by trans- tives in low-paid but secure employment or adopting ferring their risks to the global capital markets (macro low-yield drought-resistant seeds). This reduces the like- scale). A few examples serve to illustrate: lihood that they can accumulate the assets needed to escape poverty through savings and investment. In Malawi, smallholder farmers can purchase affordable index-based drought insurance, where, unlike Banks in developing countries are often reluctant to of- traditional claims-based insurance, indemnity is on an fer credit to clients at high risk of default due to natural index of rainfall measured at a local weather station. disasters. By making clients more creditworthy, insur- By making farmers more creditworthy, this pilot loan/ ance can enable investments that increase their produc- insurance scheme enables farmers to purchase hybrid tivity (sometimes more than the cost of the insurance). seeds, and thus greatly increase their productivity Thus, agents do not need to be risk averse to receive net (Suarez, Linnerooth-Bayer and Mechler 2007). benefits from insurance. Similarly, herders in Mongolia can purchase an The same can be said for the case of governments of index-based insurance policy to protect them against highly exposed countries. If governments insure their livestock loss due to extreme winter weather or dzuds. public infrastructure, this may lead to greater foreign A recent pilot program combines self-insurance, market- investment in their country. Some observers claim that based insurance, and social insurance. Herders retain the security offered by insurance has enabled industrial- small losses that do not affect the viability of their busi- ized countries to take risks, and thus increase productiv- ness (self-insurance), while larger losses are transferred ity, far above the costs of insurance. to the private insurance industry (market-based insur-

110 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS ance) and only the final layer of catastrophic losses is largely untapped potential for pooling uncorrelated risks borne by the government with backing from the World of country governments ill prepared to respond to disas- Bank (social insurance) (Skees, Barnett and Murphy ters with their own means (Ghesquiere, Mahul, Forni, 2008, 151ff.). Gartley 2006).

The World Bank has also absorbed layers of Turkey‘s At a recent expert workshop on Insurance Instruments earthquake risk to enable an affordable nation-wide infor Adaptation to Climate Risks19 in Laxenburg, Austria, surance program. This is the first time that the interna- these risk-pooling and risk-transfer programs were ex- tional development community has provided pro-active amined by those most familiar with them. Participants risk-financing support to a developing country (Gurenko, agreed that, for the most part, they directly or indirectly Lester and Mahul 2006). target the most vulnerable, and while first experience is promising, it is too early to assess their sustainability. Similarly, at the mesa scale: Importantly, without exception these (mainly) public- private systems have received technical and/or finan- The World Food Program issued a novel parametric cial support from international development and donor weather derivative or catastrophe bond to assure suf- organizations, making them a viable alternative to post- ficient funds to the Ethiopian government to protect the event aid. livelihoods of Ethiopia‘s vulnerable populations, who are at risk to severe and catastrophic drought (investors As experts discussed in Laxenburg, experience is too purchase a bond that pays an above-market interest rate short to determine if internationally backed public/pri- if rainfall exceeds a specified level, but which pays part vate systems are viable in the long haul, but as pioneer- of the principal to the Ethiopian government if rainfall is ing „test balloons“ (and some are beyond the testing below this level). This insurance instrument holds large phase) they may radically change the way development promise for supporting institutions that have tradition- organizations provide disaster aid and support adapta- ally provided humanitarian assistance (Hess 2006). tion to climate change: Binding contracts instead of aid, criteria-based instead of camera-based – it is often And at the macro level: critisised that aid goes primarily to regions where TV cameras are present – payments, and obligations to The Mexican government is the first to issue a ca- compensate instead of engaging in goodwill activities tastrophe bond to partly insure its catastrophe fund and are three such examples. Despite the promise of these thus reduce its risk of large fiscal deficits following dis- new initiatives, insurance still reaches only a small frac- asters. This bond makes it possible to transfer sovereign tion of vulnerable communities and governments; for risk directly to the world‘s capital markets (Cardenas, instance, over 40 percent of farmers in the developing Hochrainer, Mechler, Pflug, Linnerooth-Bayer 2007, world face weather-related threats to their livelihood 40ff.). (World Bank 2005), and yet those benefiting directly from micro-insurance systems number in the thou- The Caribbean island states have recently formed sands. Weather risk destabilizes households and coun- the world‘s first multi-country catastrophe insurance tries and creates food insecurity. In the Southern African pool to provide governments with immediate liquidity Development Community (SADC), as a case in point, in the aftermath of hurricanes or earthquakes. There is a floods, cyclones, and droughts have been a major cause

19 An expert workshop, Insurance Instruments for Adaptation to Climate Risks, organized jointly by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Munich Re, the German Agency for Technical Cooperation (GTZ) and the World Bank, and as part of the activities of the Munich Climate Insurance Initiative (MCII), took place at IIASA in Laxenburg, Austria, on Sept. 24-25 2007.

111 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS of hunger affecting more than 30 million persons since tial for these deliberate actions. The first reason is that 2000. Governments and donors react to these shocks governments are duty bound by international human rather than pro-actively managing the risks. These rights standards to respect, protect, and fulfill all human emergency reactions have been criticized for being ad rights. The right to adequate food, the right to housing, hoc, sometimes untimely and destabilizing local food the right to health, to water etc. are all recognized rights markets (Hess and Syroka 2005a). in the International Covenant on Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights (see chapter 2). Governments are Similarly, many highly exposed developing country gov- obliged to guarantee that no violations are happening ernments do not have the means to finance the recovery and that the government is using the maximum amount costs of catastrophic disasters and could greatly benefit of available resources to implement theses rights. The from transactions, like those in Ethiopia and Mexico. second reason is that most of the measures required for Least-developed countries can hardly afford the techni- successful adaptation are measures that need to be im- cal analyses and other start-up costs for insurance sys- plemented with the support of national governments, tems. Scaling up will prove costly, especially since disas- including the creation of regulatory frameworks that inter risks, unlike health or accident, affect whole regions centivize adaptation in the private sector. International at the same time and thus require spatial diversification, help and support cannot replace governments – it is the reinsurance and/or large capital reserves. Thus, it is very opposite. Without a functioning government, adapta- important that risk management mechanisms including tion policies will not work and cannot be implemented insurance will play a role in the UNFCCC negotiations. properly, at least not on a longer time scale and with As part of the Bali Action Plan, one workshop will be wider geographic coverage. Governments cannot be held during the COP 2008 in Poznan. Switzerland only circumvented by international resources. The better a recently proposed a global carbon tax to generate financ- government response to climate change, the more likely ing for adaptation, with insurance being identified as it is that the adaptation options chosen are well selected one of the key purposes to be supported (Germanwatch and strategically chosen. 2008). It will also be important to highlight the role of the most vulnerable in this specific debate. 4.4.1 Financial resources needed

Many studies estimate that autonomous adaptation 4.4 Response capacity at the national would be a comparably low cost implementation strate- level gy because it can lead to high benefit-cost ratios. Studies conclude, for example, that adjustments in land use The first actor responsible in dealing with the impact techniques at the farm level, which are assumed to cost of climate change is the government. Given the IPCC very little, can generate significant benefits in terms of differentiation of adaptation introduced above, the gov- offsetting damages (OECD 2008a; Adger et al. 2007). ernment has a key role to play to identify where and The same is estimated for other behavioral adaptations, which planned adaptation interventions are necessary such as enhanced water use efficiency. While the ex- to increase climate resilience. Often multi- and cross- amples pinpoint some low cost adjustments, they al- sectoral approaches will be the most promising to im- ready show how difficult such assessments are, because prove the adaptive capacity of the agricultural system or their starting point is that farmers have the skills and to help to adjust to specific adaptation needs. opportunities to change certain patterns of production easily, including sufficient information on climate data. Planned adaptation consists, therefore, of deliberate ac- Extremely marginalized smallholder farmers might need tions undertaken to reduce the adverse consequences much more support to apply such „low cost“ adaptation. of climate change. While a broad range of adaptation This scenario is often the case when these farmers are measures exists, the role of the governments is essen- extremely poor or part of women-headed households

112 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS with less then one hectare, which is not rare in Africa ing Official Development Assistance (ODA) and, while and Asia. mainstreaming climate change in ODA is important, in general, adaptation financing should be additional and As it has been mentioned before, the FAO and the IPCC should pay for additional measurably initiatives, due to highlight that particular care has to be given to the situ- its compensatory nature. ation of smallholder and subsistence agriculture, and on related livelihoods such as pastoralism and artisanal Although there is still a lot of uncertainty about the fu- fishing, because they have the least coping capacities. ture costs both in developed and developing countries, When they are negatively hit by the impact of climate the scale of financing needed is not inconsiderable. change, the number of hungry people will increase. The Recent studies undertaken by the UNFCCC secretari- FAO is demanding a conceptual framework to harness at, UNDP, or Oxfam suggest that adaptation costs will the growing understanding of the biological processes amount to several tens of billion of dollars per annum involved with climate change impacts on crops and live- (see box page 114). No doubt that adaptation is in most stock production as they relate to the specific features of cases cost-effective in the longer term, since it seeks these livelihoods (FAO 2008b). According to the IPCC, to minimize the damages from climate change in the such a framework should recognize the complexity and future. However, initially large investments have to be high location specificity of these problems, incorporate made. According to the UNFCCC, private sources of „non-climate stressors“ in rural livelihoods and their funding can be expected to cover a portion of the adap- contribution to vulnerability, and recognize that climate tation costs in developing countries. However, change impact on smallholder livelihoods is manifold and scale dependent (Easterling et al. 2007). „public resources will be needed to implement policies or regulations to encourage the invest- Nevertheless, while many low-cost strategies for adapta- ment of private resources in adaptation meas- tion exist, it becomes more and more clear that adap- ures especially in developing countries. Public tation is an economic challenge, particularly for those domestic resources will also be needed to cover countries that are highly vulnerable and economically adaptation costs related to climate change weak. Adapting to climate change requires investing in impacts on public infrastructure“ (UNFCCC sustainable natural resources and ecosystem manage- 2007a, 17). ment (e.g. integrated river basin management for the provision of freshwater or the conservation of wetlands It also becomes clear that support measures from ad- for flood protection) as well as significant extra invest- aptation funds, e.g. on the UNFCCC level, should also ments such as building new dikes to protect coasts from cover the option to support human and institutional sea-level rise, supporting local communities to prepare capacity development. If that money is not taken from for weather-related disasters, or setting up seed banks adaptation funds themselves, it could at least become to ensure food production after disasters have occurred. one of the key tasks for bi- and multilateral develop- This extra challenge emerges at a time where the ment aid to help building up the necessary government commitments of developed countries to increase their capacities to act. Official Development Assistance (ODA) are far from being met. The share of public responsibilities will probably be much higher where generally investments in the pri- The spending of adaptation finance should focus not vate sector are limited, such in many Least Developed only on supporting national governments to make nec- Countries. Also, where Official Development Assistance essary infrastructural investments, but as mentioned (ODA) provides a significant share of national budgets, earlier, on building poor people‘s resilience to climate this instrument may become a key channel to progress change. However, there is a risk of fungibility with exist- towards mainstreaming adaptation.

113 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Different adaptation „cost factors“ The discussion shows that adaptation will be a huge challenge for poorer countries. It is still open as to how a) What are the adaptation costs in international devel- many low cost alternatives exist, and it becomes clearer opment co-operation (in ODA)? that smallholder livelihoods also need particular government attention. While it might still be low cost, it will b) What are the costs for „climate-proofing“ of other require good human and institutional capacities to do it (non-ODA) existing infrastructure? properly, which in turn also requires investments.

c) How many new investments are necessary because 4.4.2 Assessment of adaptation policies of climate change (e.g. dams, dykes etc.)? The IPCC looked also into existing experiences with ad- d) What are the adaptation costs on community level aptation policies, practices, and constraints (Adger et al. (community based adaptation, capacity building by 2007). Many societies have a long record in adapting to NGOs etc.)? the impact of weather and climate through a range of practices such as crop diversification, irrigation, water e) What are the incremental costs to adapt poverty management, disaster risk management, insurances etc. reduction strategies to climate change? The IPCC highlights that, while much can be learned from historic experiences, Estimates of annual adaptation costs and the factors included in developing countries: „climate change novel risks often outside the range of experiences, such as impacts related to Oxfam 2007: at least 50 billion USD (cost factors drought, heat waves, accelerated glacier retreat a-d) and hurricane intensity” (Adger et al. 2007, 17.2.1). UNDP 2007: 86 billion USD by 2015 (a, b, e) Many observers do have hope that adaptation to climate UNFCCC 2007: 28-67 billion USD by 2030 (a-c) change is „nothing new under the sun“ (GTZ 2007, 5), because in a historical perspective, changing climate World Bank 2006: 9 to 40 billion USD (a). conditions are not new phenomena.

Taken from Harmeling and Bals 2008: differentiation by the Obviously many activities considered as adaptation to authors, deduced from the different cost estimates. climate change are not new, such as risk management, coastal management, and spatial planning. Some ob- These figures give an initial idea of the expected costs servers, therefore, conclude that what is needed to cope for adaptation but have already received some criticism. with the impact of climate change is an exchange of In a recent study on the economic aspects of adaptation, experiences. the OECD rejects the findings of the few existing studies with cost estimations. „In some regions, the repercussions of climate change will be unknown phenomena to these „While potentially relevant for the internation- regions, while the same events may be well al discussion on adaptation and its financing, known in other regions. These latter regions existing global multi-sectoral estimates face will have developed experiences and traditions serious limitations. The quality of data and the to cope with these conditions. It is essential assumption are not reliable enough“ (OECD that we learn from such regions and their his- 2008a, 12). toric experience – this is an important part of

114 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS adaptation and does not need to be invented: Ii mate change and that are disproportionally hit. Women- is already there and ‚just‘ needs to be applied“ headed households in subsistence farming are one such (GTZ 2007, 5). group (Adger et al. 2007, 17.3.2 and 17.3.3). The capacity to adapt is a dynamic one; it will be influenced While it is true that many technical solutions are avail- by a variety of factors such as economic development, able and better practices might be found in other parts natural resources, social networks, and security of enti- of the world, it is the size, speed, and dimension of the tlements that poorer segments of the society have. The problem that will make the search for the best adapta- availability of sufficient institutional capacities and gov- tion policy so difficult. How do we set priorities? Who ernance as well as human resources and technologies should we support first? These will be decisive ques- are also important. tions. Moreover, adaptation measures and policies are not only technical by nature; they might lead to changes „Multiple stresses related to HIV/AIDS, land in entire livelihoods, thus altering the living conditions degradation, trends in economic globalization, of bigger parts of the population. One example is that and violent conflict affect exposure to climate coffee can no longer be grown in Uganda at certain tem- risks and the capacity to adapt. For example, perature increases, because coffee needs to be grown in farming communities in India are exposed to higher (unavailable) altitudes (Simonett 1989). impacts of import competition and lower prices in addition to climate risks; marine ecosystems A large portion of smallholder farmers would lose an overexploited by globalized fisheries have been important part of their income. Additionally, when ad- shown to be less resilient to climate variability aptation policies are integrated into national politics, the and change“ (Adger et al. 2007, 719). institutional capacity of the government and its political will to help those most who are most affected will mat- Adaptation is not and will not be an easy task. The IPCC ter. In many countries this will require to overcome his- has very high confidence that there are significant bar- toric forms of marginalization and discrimination faced riers to implementing adaptation measures (Adger et by those who are already hungry and malnourished. al. 2007, 17.4.2). These include both the inability of natural systems to adapt at the rate and magnitude of The IPCC notes that adaptation policies are seldom climate change, as well as technological, financial, be- undertaken in response to climate change alone. Many havioral, social, and cultural constraints within socie- measures that might help to tackle the impact of climate ties. Additionally, there are still significant knowledge change are taken in order to deal with current climate gaps on the one hand as well as valuable experiences variability, in particular extreme weather events. Often, on the other hand. Good organization is necessary so planned adaptation measures are not undertaken as that available knowledge will reach those most affected stand alone measures, but embedded within broader sec- by climate change. Even in countries that have a huge toral initiatives such as water resource planning, coastal capacity to finance and implement adequate adaptation defense and disaster management planning (Adger et al. policies, it does not mean that adaptive policies auto- 2007, 17.2.2). The adaptation perspective needs there- matically will reduce vulnerability. The IPCC uses the fore to be mainstreamed in all relevant national policies, heat wave in Europe to illustrate the point: for agricultural development, water management and housing, just to mention some. „(...) despite a high capacity to adapt to heat stress through relatively inexpensive adapta- The IPCC is also concerned with the fact that adaptive tions, residents in urban areas in some part of capacities are unevenly distributed across and within the world, including European cities, continue societies. There are individuals and groups within all to experience high levels of mortality“ (Adger et societies that have insufficient capacities to adapt to cli- al. 2007, 719).

115 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS To conclude: While technical expertise might be avail- tions available to deal with one problem. The IPCC has able – and, to a large extent, it is an issue of knowl- in each chapter of the report from Working Group 2 a edge management to know what answers can be sup- subchapter discussing the opportunities and techniques plied to a given problem – the politics of adaptation and for adaptation in that sector: in chapter 5 „Food, fibre the management of necessary changes will be the real and forest products“, in chapter 3 „Freshwater resources challenges in the development of adaptation policies. and their management“ and in chapter 4 „Ecosystems, Increasing the accountability of government institutions their properties, goods and services“. Most of the recom- and policymakers towards those affected by climate mendations for the systematization of adaptation meas- change will therefore be a decisive step for the proc- ures use a sectoral approach. The following overview esses of development of national adaptation policies. (Table 15) from the UNFCCC lists adaptation measures The authors of the study propose a human rights-based for different vulnerable sectors. It differentiates between strategy for adaption policies as a key tool to increase ac- reactive and anticipatory adaptation measures. countability towards the most vulnerable groups. More details to a human right based strategy will be given in The typology used by the FAO follows an ecosystemic chapter 10. structure. The FAO framework study on climate change and food security from 2008 uses, based on this struc- 4.4.3 Adaptation measures ture, three steps:

Key to effective adaptation policies will be a functioning analysis of the nature of risks in each ecosystem national setting in which different actors cooperate and (Nature of risk), try to work together in order to achieve better outcomes through cooperation. Adaptation policies will entail ad- definition of vulnerable groups affected by these justments and changes at all levels – from the community risks (Livelihood groups at risk), level to national and international levels. Communities can increase their resilience, including searching for and possible adaptation approaches for each of the vul- developing the most appropriate technologies. They can nerable groups (Adaptation responses). partially draw on their own „traditional“ knowledge, but they can also learn from the experience of com- Since this appears to be a very useful and practical ap- munities in other places who have acted successfully proach, the full tables for 10 ecosystems are displayed in similar situations. They might diversify their liveli- here. hood strategies in order to cope with the expected future climate stress and the expected extreme weather Independent from the typology used to systematize the events. Or they might insure themselves. Local coping available instruments and technologies used to adapt to strategies will only be successful if they are developed in climate change, it is important to recall from above that synergy with government action at the local and inter- adaptation is not only a technical issue. Adaptation poli- national level. At all levels, ministries, governments, as cies need to be integrated into a national strategy that well as institutions and non-governmental organisation focuses on particular vulnerable groups and that tries to have to work together and integrate the climate change involve all actors significantly affected. perspective in their planning and budget work. If only some of the actors mentioned are aware and willing to Adaptation to climate change must also occur through act according to the adaptation needs identified, but the the prevention and removal of mal-adaptive practices – others opt out, the result will probably be sub-optimal. e.g. incentives to live in risk-prone areas –, as has been outlined before. A policy test is needed to make sure There are many adaptation measures that can be ap- that they do not contradict adaptation needs. Examples plied, and literature is increasing in presenting many op- include badly managed irrigation systems, the removal

116 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Table 15: Adaptation measures in key vulnerable sectors highlighted in national communications of developing countries

Vulnerable sectors Reactive adaptation Anticipatory adaptation Water resources Protection of groundwater resources Better use of recycled water

Improved management and maintenance of Conservation of water catchment areas existing water supply systems Improved system of water management Protection of water catchment areas Water policy reform including pricing and ir- Improved water supply rigation policies

Groundwater and rainwater harvesting and Development of flood controls and drought desalination monitoring Agriculture and Erosion control Development of tolerant/ resistant crops (to food security drought,salt, insect/pests) Dam construction for irrigation Research and development Changes in fertilizer use and application Soil-water management Introduction of new crops Diversification and intensification of food and Soil fertility maintenance plantation crops

Changes in planting and harvesting times Policy measures, tax incentives/ subsidies, free market Switch to different cultivars Development of early warning systems Educational and outreach programs on conservation and management of soil and water Human health Public health management reform Development of early warning system

Improved housing and living conditions Better and/or improved disease/vector surveil- lance and monitoring Improved emergency response Improvement of environmental quality

Changes in urban and housing design Terrestrial ecosys- Improvement of management systems Creation of parks/reserves, protected areas tems including control of deforestation, reforesta- and biodiversity corridors tion and afforestation Identification/development of species resist- Promoting agro forestry to improve forest ant to climate change goods and services Better assessment of the vulnerability of Development/improvement of national for- ecosystems est fire management plans Monitoring of species Improvement of carbon storage in forests Development and maintenance of seed banks

Including socioeconomic factors in management policy

117 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Vulnerable sectors Reactive adaptation Anticipatory adaptation Coastal zones and Protection of economic infrastructure Integrated coastal zone management marine ecosystems Public awareness to enhance protection of Better coastal planning and zoning coastal and marine ecosystems Development of legislation for coastal protec- Building sea walls and beach reinforcement- tion Improvement of carbon storage in forests Research and monitoring of coasts and coastal Protection and conservation of coral reefs, ecosystems mangroves, sea grass and littoral vegetation

Source: based on UNFCCC 2008a, 31

of laws that protect particular vulnerable groups and in all steps of adaptation policies, capacity building at all their access to productive resources for the building of levels of government, and integrated climate research infrastructure, and practices that lead to the destruction whose results are communicated to all stakeholders. of mangroves etc. Community-based adaptation strategies often show the best results. Political will is a central precondition for The key focus of all adaptation policies should be im- designing adaptation policies in a result-oriented man- proving the situation of particularly vulnerable groups. ner. Political will is best fostered by freedom of expres- The following set of principles and criteria should be sion and a proactive role of media and the guarantee of applied for all adaptation policies: freedom of association for civil society groups.

they should be based on human rights standards and principles (e.g. transparency and non-discrimination); 4.5 Response capacity to problems at the local and household level they should focus on vulnerable groups and people and show that they are using the maximum amount of Developing countries have very different national cir- available resources to improve their situation; cumstances. The specific impact of climate change on a country depends on climatic conditions as well as its they should guarantee existing access to productive geographical, social, cultural, economic, and political resources and avoid mal-adaptation; situation. As a result, countries require a diversity of adaptation measures very much depending on these spe- they should be build around meaningful participa- cific circumstances. However, there are cross-cutting is- tion of all affected groups; sues which apply to multiple countries and regions. The same sectors are affected by climate change, albeit to they should include the right to complain, including differing degrees, such as agriculture, water resources, complaint and recourse procedures and human health, terrestrial ecosystems, biodiversity, cos- tal zones etc. The capacity of governments to act locally they should be „customer-oriented“, meaning that and to correctly assess who is going to be affected and appropriate climate services should be developed for the in what ways also differs. groups affected by climate change. That must include effective communication between stakeholder groups, Adaptation policy will only work if it functions locally, user friendly support tools, full stakeholder participation because otherwise it is very likely that the instruments

118 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Table 16: Examples of adaptation responses according to different ecosystems

Nature of risk Livelihood groups at risk Adaptation responses Dry land ecosystem EXTREME Low-income groups in Improved crop, grassland and livestock drought- and flood-prone management Drought areas with poor distribution in- Promotion of cropping systems increasing Flood frastructure and limited access soil organic matter and water infiltration to emergency response GRADUAL capacity (no-tillage systems)Research and Producers of crops that may dissemination of crop varieties and breeds Changes in rainfall patterns not be sustainable under adapted to changing climatic conditions changing temperature and Community grain storage for food distribu- rainfall regimes tion Poor livestock keepers where Weather-related insurance changes in rainfall patterns will affect forage availability and quality Coastal and island ecosystem EXTREME Fishing communities that Coastal defenses: depend heavily on coral reefs Heavy rains,high winds, storm surges, Hard-groynes, revetments, embankments for protection from natural floods disasters and flood Soft-mangroves, coral reefs, wetland con- GRADUAL servation Fishers whose infrastructure Saltwater intrusions, sea-level rise essential for fishing activities, Emergency shelters on high ground, with e.g. port and landing facilities, stocks of food, water and medicine storage facilities, fish ponds Relocation of settlements, roads and other and processing areas, become infrastructure submerged or damaged Integrated coastal zone management Farmers whose land becomes submerged or damaged by the Desalination plants rise in sea-level or saltwater Weather-related insurance intrusions Relocation where a rise of sea-level is inevitable

EXTREME People indirectly dependent on Integrated watershed management ap- mountain ecosystem services proaches Flood Producers of crops that may Adjusted silvicultural practices Landslide not be sustainable under Research and dissemination of crop varieties changing temperature and and breeds adapted to changing climatic rainfall regimes conditions

EXTREME Elderly people and others Emergency shelters susceptible to temperature Heat and cold waves, high winds, Adaptive infrastructure investments extremes storm surges, floods Innovative insurance instruments Low-to-medium-income GRADUAL groups who may lose homes, Sea-level rise stored food, personal posses- sions and means of obtaining livelihoods

119 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Nature of risk Livelihood groups at risk Adaptation responses EXTREME Fishers/aqua farmers who suf- Shift from dynamic to static fishingtech- ferdiminishing catches from nologies that are less wasteful ofremaining More anomalies, in both failures and shifts in fishdistribution and fish stocks bonanzas, among multiple species aquatic ecosystem productivity Occupational training to facilitate searchfor Drastic shift in the areas where small, new livelihood opportunities migrating fish are found

GRADUAL

Changes in ocean currents, rise in average sea temperatureSharpen- ing of various gradient structures, Increased discharge of freshwater into oceansRatchet-like Eutrophica- tion (increase in chemicalnutrients and loss of oxygen in ocean waters), severe reductions in water quality and in fish and other animal populations. Inland water and floodplain system EXTREME Low-income groups in Changes to dam and infrastructure specifi- drought- and flood-prone cations High winds, heavy rains, floods areas with poor food distribu- Storm- and flood-resilient building codes GRADUAL tion infrastructure and limited access to emergency response Improved river defenses Changing water levels Watershed management, including zero- tillage farming systems

Restricting development in high-risk (floods, mudslides) zones

Weather-related insurance Forest ecosystem EXTREME Low-income, forest-dependent Integrated forest pest managementsystems people Heavy rains, high winds, floods, Integrated forest fire managementsystems droughts, wildfires People indirectly dependent on Integrated watershed managementap- forest GRADUAL proaches ecosystem services Sea-level rise, forest dieback, pests Adjusted silvicultural practices and disease Forest conservation

Promotion of small-scale forest-based enterprises for local income diversification Cultivated ecosystem EXTREME Producers of tree crops that Introduction of cropping systems that do- aresusceptible to wind damage not move and expose soil High winds, floods, droughts Producers of crops that may Introduction of integrated agro forestrysys- GRADUAL not be sustainable under tems Changing temperature and rainfall changing temperatureand Research and dissemination of cropvarieties regimes rainfall regimes and breeds adapted tochanging climatic conditions

Source: FAO 2008b, 56

120 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Table 17: Examples of adaptation options by poverty category

Poverty Chronic Poor Transient Poor Category Type of Always Poor Usually Poor Cyclical Poor Occassionally Poor Adaption Autonomous • Conflict, crime, sex • Intra-community • Seasonal migration • Diversify livelihoods adaption work transfer/charity • Working multiple • Investment in social • Selling of last assets • Sending children jobs, longer hours capital/assets to work Market-based • Promote micro- • Weather-indexed • Promote mirco- adaption finance, microinsurance finance, micro-insur- insurance ance • Promote mirco- • Cattle insurance finance, micro- • Selling assets insurance

Public policy driven • Assisted migration • Community re- • Ecosystem rehabili- • Social insurance pro- adaption stocking schemes tation grammes (health, crop, • Cash tranfers employment) • Subsidised seed • Improved climate banks information (sea- • Irrigation schemes/ur- sonal forecasting) ban service provision

Source: IDS 2007, 4

will not be precise enough to reach out to those who fected by HIV/AIDS or who are headed by marginalized are locally affected. In all countries, a detailed analysis women. Younger and better skilled people might find of the impact of climate change is a pre-condition to it easier to adapt to changing circumstances because deal adequately with it. Assessing the impacts of and historically they are more open to planting other crops. vulnerability to climate change and subsequently work- Often, younger people have better educations which ing out participative adaptation strategies reflecting the might provide them with additional useful capacities. needs of the affected people require good quality information. This information has to include local climate In most cases, the effects of climate change will vary data as much as possible, such as temperature, rainfall, within regions and even among households, although and the frequency of extreme events. there may be generalized trends on the national level. This fact leaves households with different coping capaci- The risk of households hit by the effects of cli- ties. Therefore, developing a vulnerability mapping of mate change will depend on several circumstances. households potentially affected by climate change is an Vulnerable groups need to be distinguished by the indispensable starting point for each country. This ac- different livelihood risks they face. Additionally, the tion allows countries to develop adaptation strategies coping capacities of each family need to be taken into that target the most vulnerable. consideration. It will vary from family to family; those families with savings, or where enough labor capacity is Overall, there is little doubt that poverty is a key factor available might have a better chance of autonomously limiting the adaptive capacities of people and why poor coping with climate risks than those who are heavily af- people often constitute the most vulnerable groups.

121 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Table 18: Policy options for the design of local adaptation policies

Type of measures Examples Adopting physical adaptive measures Excavation, re-excavation of canals, miniponds, irrigation, storage facilities for retaining rain water Adjusting existing agricultural practices Adjustment of cropping patterns, selection of drought- tolerant crop varieties; better storage of seeds and food; dry seedbeds, or adopting alternative, cash crops such as mango and jujube Adjusting socio-economic activities Livelihood diversification, market facilitation, small-scale cottage industries, integration of traditional knowledge Strengthening local institutions Self-help programs, capacity building and awareness raising for local institutions Strengthening formal institutional structures Local disaster management committees and financing institutions; formulating policy to catalyze enhancement of adaptive livelihood opportunities Creating awareness and advocacy Supporting better research Farm links to new or improved crops including drought tolerant varieties, and other conducive and adaptive technologies

Source: FAO and ADPC 2006

When thinking about solutions, addressing the differ- urgently needed and must start with strengthening local ent faces seems to be useful in identifying adaptation governments and their accountability. options which address the specific needs of the target groups (Table 17). The literature on local and community-based adaptation policies is increasing, and several studies are avail- One important precondition for local adaptation policies able which provide a good overview of policy options is that there is a functioning local administration to defor adaptation at the local level. One example is a case velop good strategies. Local administrations need to be study which was carried out in Bangladesh. It devel- supported by national institutions, both in the supply oped a useful typology to describe the different policy of climate information and knowledge for adaptation measures and policy areas that need to be involved in measures as well as in the delivery of financial resources local adaptation measures to cope with climate change and legal tools (when needed). The correct application (FAO and ADPC 2006, 66f.). The authors of the study of such knowledge and the transfer resources to the lo- show that successful local adaptation to climate vari- cal level need to done by the local administration. It is ability and change is not an easy task, and it requires at that level where administration is often very weak in multiple pathways with well-planned, interrelated short developing countries. Often, local administration lacks and long term measures. The task ahead for the design the power to make the necessary decisions because of meaningful adaptation policies at local levels is to find the central government controls all of the steps. On the right combination of these factors, which will give the other hand, local governments are often the agents answers to the expected changes in the „geo-physical responsible for the marginalization and discrimination settings“ as well as the necessary adjustments in the of certain weaker groups in society. Decentralization is „livelihood systems“.

122 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS 4.6 Human rights set standards for into consideration the already existing discriminations adequate government responses and marginalization.

Adaptation measures will only reach particularly margin- Human rights set standards for government behavior alized groups if a good assessment has been done. This on the issues enshrined in these specific rights. Since assessment must analyze the vulnerabilities of different climate change and adaptation to its consequences will groups living under similar livelihood circumstances influence the fulfillment of these rights, principles for an and, ideally, the vulnerability of each household. adequate design of adaptation policies can be reasonably deducted from the human rights debate. Governments The analyses shall be measured in how far adaptation have the obligation to respect, protect, and fulfill human policies applied will contribute to the implementation of rights – particularly for the most vulnerable groups. They the right to adequate food and other economic, social, have to make sure that government policies respect and cultural rights of the affected households. Other these rights, e.g. do not deprive people from access to examples are the rights to health, housing and water. food-producing resources, from obtaining an adequate The human rights perspective has been chosen here as income, or from the access to food itself. the relevant point of departure, because human rights describe what can be expected from governments based Continuing with the example of the right to food, gov- on their own commitments. ernments have to make sure that third parties do not violate the right to food (obligation to protect). Moreover, Key aspects of the right to adequate food debate have governments have to prove that they fulfill the right to been summarized before. What are the applications adequate food by using the maximum amount of its for the adaptation debate and for designing appropriate available resources as expeditiously as possible. This policies? cover measures the prevention of disasters and preparedness to shocks. The complexity of the choice of specific policy options seems to stretch the limits and coordination capacity Human rights are also an important category, because of current local institutions to find the right adaptive they set standards in how far governments act in a way responses, including research and technology develop- that is sufficiently participatory to the most affected ment. However, a rights-based approach will be helpful stakeholders. The persons affected by drought, flood- for the design of adaptation policies. Those groups and ing, weather anomalies etc. are often experienced ad- persons who are already marginalized and who have aptation „experts“. They should be informed and their compromised coping capacities, will be most affected. opinions heard before adaptation decisions are made. Moreover, they should have opportunities to complain, In chapter 1 and 2 it was described that most of the be it to a national ombudsman system, or to the national hungry today are marginalized producers or consumers human rights institution. who have never received government support to help them in the given circumstances. Pre-existing discrimi- If these people are negatively affected by the chosen nations are likely to be aggravated and already vulner- adaptation policies or if they feel that their claims have able groups will be particularly affected. The human been overseen, there should be a route for citizens in right to adequate food, as well as the rights to water which they can object to unfair policies. In the context and health, comes into play in the design and analysis of UN climate policies, even a complaint mechanism on of governmental response to climate change. According the international level is imaginable. to the International Covenant on Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights, governments have to first focus their Human rights allow holding governments accountable policy response on the most vulnerable groups and take – as well as when designing adaptation policies to cli-

123 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS mate change. Governments are requested to develop a Helping to get access to research results, the dis- national strategy for the implementation of each right, semination of crop varieties and breeds adapted to new which shall encompass the aforementioned five crucial circumstances, and using different varieties at the same elements:20 time;

Adaptation policies to climate change must pass the Promoting agro-forestry, integrated farming, organic same rights-based test. Did the government identify the farming techniques (soil moisture, biodiversity, stress relevant vulnerable groups? Has a proper risk assess- resistance of local agricultural systems), particularly ori- ment been done? Are the policies reasonably focused ented to subsistence and smallholder farmers; on the vulnerable groups? Are the effects and the impact of policies being monitored? Do people have the Improved infrastructure for small-scale water cap- right to complain against the policies affecting them? Do ture, storage, and use; they have a legal recourse? Human rights not only ask for ending violations and for positive outcomes for the Improved soil management practices; most vulnerable groups; they also set standards for the form of political processes. They must be participatory, Minimizing post harvest losses; transparent, and non-discriminatory. Helping to adapt farming systems and livelihood It is important to recognize that there are no specific strategies to changing agro-ecological conditions. „rights-based policies“ valid under all circumstances – but the selection of adaptation policies should be done There are many other instruments which could poten- in a rights-based manner. First of all, it is a procedural tially play a role in adaptation in the agricultural sec- obligation. This means that good adaptation policies also tor. The procedural aspects of the rights-based approach need to address the historic discrimination of marginal- need to be applied to those adaptation strategies being ized groups in order to allow them to cope with the chosen. These aspects must also be seen in a wider upcoming problems. The policies have to address this context as there is a need for an adequate and compre- marginalization, although one cannot expect to solve all hensive government response to a non agricultural food problems of marginalization from adaptation policies. supply system. It must be ensured that no food insecure, vulnerable groups are excluded from supply systems. A Measures to achieve this in the agricultural sector in- combination of e.g. the following measures should be clude: pursued:

Ending insecurities in access to productive resour Safety net systems (e.g. cash transfer, micro-insur- ces; ance etc.);

20 (1) Governments must assess and identify what are the most vulnerable groups concerning the rights to adequate food, to housing, to water etc. Without proper assessment, governments cannot properly focus their policy attention to these groups. (2) They have to make sure that existing legislation addresses the concerns of these groups and that the legislation is not leading to “de jure” discrimination and violations. (3) The governments have to make sure that their policy response and their choice of instruments (“de facto”) is reasonable and focused on those most vulnerable under this right. Policies shall respect and protect existing access to resources and other means necessary to realize these respective rights. They must also help people cope with risks. (4) Governments are obliged to monitor the outcome of their policies. (5) Governments must allow for accountability mechanisms including functioning complaint mechanisms and access to recourse procedures.

124 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS School feeding and other targeted food related interventions;

Price support for vulnerable groups or similar mea sures (public subsidized distribution systems);

Support for HIV/AIDS-affected families (orphans etc.) and

Employment guarantee schemes.

To sum it up: Adaptation policies need to be embedded appropriately in the local context and should be oriented towards the most vulnerable groups. One of the strengths of this approach is that it helps set up procedural guarantees of participation for affected communities and people, including having access to relevant information (transparency) and the right to complain. The second strength is that rights-based approaches re- quest a specific outcome. Governments have to prove that they focus their policy and budget decisions toward the most vulnerable groups and that no group is overlooked. Governments have to prove that their own adaptation policies do no harm, i.e. deprive people from access to food or water. It is, therefore, a very sensitive and meaningful approach to target adaptation policies for those who need it the most, as many studies demand (FAO and ADPC 2006, 95).

125 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS 5 Impacts on global food (4) Utilization of food: It can be affected indirectly by security and response capacity at food safety hazards associated with pests and animal the international level diseases, as well as by the increased presence of human diseases like malaria and diarrhea. Again, these problems need to be solved first and foremost at the national and household levels. 5.1 Impacts on global food security In chapter 4, the potential to deal with adaptation prob- Climate change will have effects on all four dimensions lems at the national, local and household level was de- of the food security definition (see chapter 1). It is useful scribed. Chapter 5 will discuss the elements for which to apply the four dimensions to the potential impact of the international dimension will be most relevant. It climate change. Some of the dimensions can basically will look into the response capacity of the international be addressed at the local or national level, while oth- system in order to adequately deal with coming adap- ers are most relevant to the global response. Although tation problems. It will discuss the role development there will be some positive impacts, the following list aid can and should play as well as the response capac- illustrates that climate change will have mostly negative ity of intergovernmental organisations working in the effects on the food security dimensions: field. However, predictions on the overall availability of food supply are difficult to make due to the many in- (1) Availability of food: It is likely that food availability tertwined factors. One line of argument in the debate will be reduced by a drop in food production caused by is the Malthusian argument, that limited resources of extreme events, changes in the suitability or availability fertile soil and irrigation water cannot feed the long of arable land and water, and the unavailability or lack term demand of the overall, growing population with a of access to crops, crop varieties and animal breeds that changing live style. Other groups are hopeful that the po- can be productive in conditions resulting from changes tential to increase yields and production is still far from in pests and diseases. being fully realized and that a second or third „green revolution“ will be necessary and possible. Chapter 2.4 The production side of availability has global implica- analyzed agricultural market trends more in detail. The tions. The amount of sufficient food available guaranteed five key trends identified were the following: during emergencies is one such implication. Questions also arise as to who is going to keep certain stocks etc. The demand for food and agricultural products is expected to grow rapidly, due to factors such as the (2) Access to food: The situation might be worsened due population growth, increasing wealth etc.; to the fact that extreme weather events and their likely intensification resulting from climate change might lead The demand for non-food use of agricultural re- to damages in infrastructure. Losses of livelihood assets source is increasing along with oil prices, in particular and loss of income and employment opportunities are for energy purposes; even more important. Access to food is an issue that first and foremost needs to be tackled at the national Global food markets will be confronted with a and household level. shrinking surplus production in the US and the EU through reduced export subsidies and more domestic (3) Stability of food supply: It is important to note that use for energy purposes etc.; this will be influenced by food price fluctuations and a higher dependency on imports and food aid. Adequate Future environmental limitations for agricultural regulation for this dimension needs to be found at the production including land degradation, urbanization, national and global levels. reduced fresh water availability etc.;

126 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Climate change is likely to increase volatility on the ers increase production. An increase in irrigated land supply side, particularly due to more intense extreme will help increase yields at a different pace in Africa weather events, inter alia in today‘s surplus countries. than in the past decades.21 While it is correct to look at all options to improve productivity per area of land, it All of these factors contribute to a scenario of increas- is becoming increasingly recognized that marginalized ing demand and limitations on the supply side. Food communities, rather than the already intensively culti- producing resources are limited, particularly soils and vated agricultural land, need more attention. Moreover, water. While this scenario does not necessarily lead to further intensification in favorable agricultural areas is scarcity of food in the coming years, it is an indication reaching its limits. These results are, for example, due that prices for agricultural produce will not likely de- to increasing water shortages and therefore reduced ir- crease to levels that prevailed during the last decades. rigation possibilities, as well as through increasing environmental problems, like salinisation, that current intensive industrialized production is already causing. 5.2 Options to increase production Recently the International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development The standard answers given concerning these challenges (IAASTD), which was published in Paris, gave the most are normally technical. Suggested solutions are often to encompassing documentation of the possibilities, which increase productivity and the yield per hectare through small holder agriculture has. the use of modern plant varieties. The general model of the last decades has been to continuously innovate, re- „Given the new challenges we confront today, duce farm gate prices and externalize costs. This model there is increasing recognition within formal drove the phenomenal achievements of Agricultural S&T organizations that the current Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology (AKST) in indus- Knowledge, Science and Technology (AKST) trial countries after World War II and the spread of the model requires revision. Business as usual is no Green Revolution beginning in the 1960s. Agricultural longer an option. This leads to rethinking the research has contributed to an average increase of yields role of AKST in achieving development and sus- for decades at a rate above the increase of the world tainability goals; one that seeks more intensive population. engagement across diverse worldviews and pos- sibly contradictory approaches in ways that can The increase in productivity was due to better seeds inform and suggest strategies for actions ena- or breeds, but also to the intensification of agricultural bling to the multiple functions of agriculture“ production through the increasing use of fertilizer, pes- (IAASTD 2008, 4). ticides, and a remarkable mechanization of agriculture. At the same time, the size of land being irrigated was in- The report, which had been kicked off in Johannesburg creased, particularly in Asia. Only recently the increase during the Earth Summit in 2002, lines out in productivity has slowed down. „various policy options to meet the challenges It is within this context that UN-Agencies and private ahead, perhaps best characterized as the need philanthropic organisations are currently promoting a for food and livelihood security under increas- second green revolution for Africa. The hope is that a ingly constrained environmental conditions good supply of agricultural inputs will help African farm- from within and outside the realm of agriculture

21 See the documents of AGRA “Alliance for a new green revolution in Africa” at www.agra.org. The ideas are supported by the FAO which highlights the potential to increase yields and production in Africa.

127 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS and globalized economic systems“ (IAASTD How to maintain and enhance environmental 2008, 3). and cultural services while increasing sustainable productivity and diversity of food, fiber and The setting of the World Agricultural Council is similar bio fuel production? to the IPCC. It comprises 400 scientists from all over the world. They screened the available literature and How to manage effectively the collaborative published their report on that basis (IAASTD 2008). generation of knowledge among increasingly heterogeneous contributors and the flow of The report focuses on the question, how Agricultural information among diverse public and private Knowledge, Science and Technology (AKST) can be AKST organizational arrangements? used to reduce hunger and poverty, to improve rural livelihoods and to facilitate equitable environmentally, How to link the outputs from marginalized, socially and economically sustainable development. It rain fed lands into local, national and global shows how much potential exists to increase sustainable markets?“ (IAASTD 2008, 4f.). agricultural production, when small holder farmers get an adequate support in national agricultural policies: It is not only this report which recognizes that those marginalized smallholder farmers, who have never re- „The main challenge of AKST is to increase the ceived adequate attention or research support, could productivity of agriculture in a sustainable man- easily increase their yields – often three- or fourfold – in ner. AKST must address the needs of small-scale a different policy environment.22 This potential for in- farms in diverse ecosystems and create realistic creasing yields depends on different factors, such as the opportunities for their development where the type of agricultural system (organic or non-organic), en- potential for improved area productivity is low vironmental conditions for agriculture, and the respec- and where climate change may have its most tive ecosystems. After years of neglect, smallholders are adverse consequences. The main challenges for now being taken much more seriously in the debate. AKST posed by multifunctional agricultural systems include: A good indicator of this are the documents of the Global Donor Platform for Rural Development. It is a platform How to improve social welfare and personal of bi- and multilateral donors which tries to learn from livelihoods in the rural sector and enhance mul- the best practices and make proposals for how to foster tiplier effects of agriculture? rural development policies inside of the official development assistance. Long term solutions for achieving How to empower marginalized stakeholders higher yields, which can be secured sustainably, are to sustain the diversity of agriculture and food most important. They will require agro-ecological solu- systems, including their cultural dimensions? tions that will increase productivity on marginal soils, and convert damaging industrial production systems How to provide safe water, maintain biodi- into more sustainable systems. Miguel Altieri noted: versity, sustain the natural resource base and minimize the adverse impacts of agricultural „Throughout the developing world, resource- activities on people and the environment? poor farmers (about 1.4 billion people) located

22 For details: The UN Millennium Project describes in detail how to marginal many farming areas are today. Marginal both in terms of rural remoteness and distance to streets, infrastructure, and markets, and marginal in terms of policy ranking at national and international agendas (UN Millennium Project 2005).

128 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS in risk-prone, marginal environments, remain factors, including agricultural research and productiv- untouched by modern agricultural technology.“ ity. This chapter has shown that it is important to look further than the high potential areas of production, be- Altieri states that a new approach to natural resource cause their relative advantage might suffer with climate management must be developed so that new systems change (less water, flooded fertile coastal zones affected can be tailored and adapted in a site-specific way to by salt water intrusion etc.). Productivity gains will be highly variable and diverse farm conditions typical of best achieved when smallholder farmers get more sup- resource-poor farmers. Agro ecology provides the sci- port and incentives to produce. That support must be di- entific basis to address the production by a biodiverse rected to them, in order to make sure that they can use agro ecosystem able to sponsor its own functioning. it (linked with micro-credits and training etc). If the sup- The latest advances in agro ecological research need to port is simultaneously directed to help them to adapt to promote natural resource management compatible with climate change or to cope with the consequences, then the needs and aspirations of smallholder farmers. adaptation policies are becoming more oriented towards an integrated approach including poverty concerns. At „Obviously, a relevant research agenda setting the same time, smallholder farmers are the biggest sin- should involve the full participation of farm- gle group of the hungry worldwide. If their income can ers with other institutions serving a facilitating be raised, the hunger situation will become better. role. The implementation of the agenda will imply major institutional and political changes“ (Altieri 2002). 5.3 Agriculture – increasing productivity or global warming? Such agriculture can, under certain conditions, have a higher resilience against climate change impacts. If strategies to increase the productivity of agriculture are considered, it should be taken into account, But the problems cannot be tackled only at the technical level. The situation of the rural poor has been aggra- to what extent this fits with adaptation strategies to vated by the fact that rural areas were neglected in na- climate change, tional and international policy making. For a long time, the policy focus was on investments in industry and to what extent this is coherent with a mitigation urban infrastructure, and budget allocations for rural strategy based on the two degrees limit and areas were reduced substantially, as has been previously described (chapter 2.3). Support for rural development what synergies between increased productivity, ad- and agricultural production were judged as outmoded aptation and mitigation can be implemented? and reduced by more than half since the beginning of the 1990s. A radical and intelligent shift towards poli- As outlined before, according to IPCC data, greenhouse cies that pay greater attention to the needs of the poor gas emissions from the food, forestry, and agriculture and hungry is needed, and governments must imple- sectors contribute over 30 percent of current annual to- ment their human rights obligations to these groups. tal anthropogenic emissions. 13.5 percent of emissions This includes addressing other negative framework con- come from agriculture and 17.4 percent come from de- ditions such as insecure land titles and problems with forestation (Barker et al. 2007, 5). It is therefore impor- access to credit or capital etc. tant to address these emissions and try to reduce them substantively. The main source of these emissions is the Therefore, we can conclude that the availability of food livestock sector, which accounts for about 18 percent of is not an indicator per se to explain why people are hun- global emissions. Interestingly, two thirds of those 18 gry. The overall availability of food is dependent on many percent come from deforestation caused by livestock

129 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Table 19: Best practices of climate change mitigation in agriculture

Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide through: • reduction in the rate of deforestation and forest degradation, • better control of wildfires, • avoiding the practice of burning crop residues after harvest, • avoiding pasture degradation, • reduction of emissions in arable farming by adoption of no-till systems, • reduction of emissions from commercial fishing operations and, • more efficient energy use by commercial agriculture and agro-industries. Reducing emissions of methane and nitrous oxide through: • improving nutrition for ruminant livestock, • more efficient management of livestock waste, • more efficient management of irrigation water on rice paddies, • more efficient management of applications of nitrogen fertilizer and manure on cultivated fields, • reclamation of treated municipal wastewater for aquifer recharge and irrigation. Sequestering carbon through: • afforestation, reforestation, and improved forest management practices, • introduction of integrated agro-forestry systems that combine crops, grazing lands, and trees in ecologically sustainable ways, • use of degraded lands for productive planted forests or other cellulose biomass for bio fuels, • improved management of pastures and grazing practices on natural grasslands, including by optimizing stock numbers and rotational grazing, • use of techniques such as conservation agriculture to improve soil organic matter management with permanent organic soil cover, minimum mechanical soil disturbance and crop rotation.

Source: FAO 2007, 18

production. This means that the numbers used here for options proposed for adaptation can also help to miti- deforestation and livestock emissions cannot be added, gate the impact of these sectors. as this would be double-counting of emissions by deforestation due to livestock extension. The other third is a The FAO has put together a list of proposals for how result of the release of methane and nitrous oxide (FAO agriculture could systematically apply new technolo- 2007). Addressing land use change for livestock pro- gies to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Such a duction and reducing deforestation rates are two very list cannot be applied in all countries, but it provides important objectives for reducing agricultural-related options for which the most relevant techniques in differ- emissions. ent situations can be chosen. The design of national or local adaptation strategies has the potential to become The design of adaptation policies in countries could be an important occasion where such techniques could be a useful opportunity to kill two birds with one stone: used. (1) identifying the most vulnerable populations and trying to minimize the impact of climate change on them, The FAO particularly highlights the potential of conser- partly by increasing the productivity of their land, while vation agriculture to mitigate agricultural emissions, but (2) at the same time trying to change harmful develop- the same would apply for organic agriculture. Zero-till ments by way of production in order to reduce agricul- techniques of conservation agriculture could help se- ture‘s contribution to climate change. Many technology quester up to 3 billions of tons of carbon per year for

130 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Figure 21: Annual official flows and shares potentially affected by climate change

Source: OECD 2005

about 30 years (FAO 2007, 18). Conservation will also adverse effects of policies on other groups. However, use much less fossil energy in the production of agricul- in many cases, adaptation, mitigation, food security en- tural goods. hancement, and rural development can go hand in hand if well planned. There can also be negative trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation. Adaptation measures in one sector Furthermore, there can be positive feedback loops. can negatively affect livelihoods in other sectors. For example, river fisheries can be negatively affected from „Agriculture and forestry strategies can simul- adaptations in other livelihood sectors upstream. In taneously increase adaptive capacity and miti- particular, additional irrigation water needs, such as in gate climate change. For example, increasing the Ganges region, can reduce flows and affect seasonal soil organic matter in cropping systems, agro spawning and fish productivity. forestry and mixed-species forestry can improve soil fertility and soil moisture holding capacity, Negative trade-offs could also evolve in the other direc- reduce impact of droughts or floods, reduce vul- tion. Mitigation measures, such as reducing emissions nerability and sequester carbon. There is need from deforestation by financing the non use of certain to explore and promote the synergy between forest areas, can threaten the land rights, traditional-us- adaptation and mitigation in the agriculture and er rights, and livelihood forms of rural people. This proc- forestry sectors (IPCC)“ (FAO 2008, 8c). ess could even undermine efforts to improve food security and sustainable development for these groups. It is Although the most vulnerable countries should focus on possible to reduce trade-off risks by sensitively applying food security and adaptation they also should try to real- a rights-based approach to analyze and avoid possible ize benefits of synergies with mitigation whenever pos-

131 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS sible. Adaptation (including increase of the productivity donor countries, with the exception of a few, primarily of land) and mitigation and their respective synergies Scandinavian countries, have never met their 30-year- and antagonisms are often location specific, although old commitment of spending 0.7 percent of their GNI some patterns are based on elements such as climate, into Official Development Assistance.23 Only recently, soil type, farming system, and level of development. the Bali Action Plan reaffirmed the commitment for additional resources, however, this term is not exactly defined. It could be additional to existing ODA spent 5.4 Response capacity in development on adaptation, to overall existing ODA, to the ODA cooperation commitment of spending 0.7 percent of GNI. Many developing countries and NGOs call for the latter ap- Climate change is becoming a central issue for develop- proach, given the large gap in actual ODA compared to ment cooperation. Bi- and multilateral donors, as well as the needs (see e.g. Oxfam 2007; Klima-Allianz 2007). private non governmental agencies, have embarked on They fear that ODA is being diverted from its original programs and policy advice related to both mitigation and purpose. adaptation policies. Climate change will become a major trend influencing all endeavors to reduce or combat Secondly, the money that is likely to come out of the poverty and in reaching the Millennium Development UNFCCC process has the objective to support coping Goals (MDGs). Development cooperation must there- with situations or consequences of climate change; a fore take climate change seriously and develop adequate challenge, which to a large extent, has been caused solutions. A second motivation for taking up this issue is by developed countries. Financial flows to mitigate cli- the demand from the donor governments. mate change and particularly flows to cope with the impact of climate change are, by nature, compensatory. Development cooperation agencies have started to Development Assistance was often demanded from de- develop tools to „mainstream“ adaptation into their veloping countries as compensation for historic harm project portfolio by attempting to climate-proof projects done by former colonial powers, but the ODA is not for- that they carry out. Analyses have shown that, in some mally paid because of that reason. Developed countries cases, up to 40 percent of ODA investments are climate have refused to accept such a compensatory function of sensitive (Figure 21). While increasing experience is ODA. The United Nations working group on the Right gathered on a project level, mainstreaming has moved to Development has been “poisoned” for years inter alia more towards the higher level of policies, rather than with this debate (see Eide, Krause and Rosas 2004). In the operational level. A limited number of donors have the context of the UNFCCC commitments, the case is systematically started to integrate adaptation into their different. work. Those who have are still in the early stages (OECD 2007; Harmeling, Burck and Bals 2007). However, by Development actors are well prepared to engage in the mid-2008, OECD countries themselves had identified financing and implementation of adaptation policies. progress, but also further challenges in a number of They have the methods and tools (from policy advice to fields (Table 20). budgets support) to develop practically, and they have approved ways to channel the money. One of the big- An issue of increasing relevance is the addition of fi- gest risks of using the same actors for the delivery of nancing for adaptation and mitigation. Almost all of the funds is that development aid has also produced many

23 In 1970, the UN proclaimed the goal that developed countries should spent 0.7 percent of the Gross National Income (GNI) as development aid. The OECD Development Assistance Committee is monitoring the implementation of that goal and is publishing a regular report about trends in development aid (OECD-DAC 2007).

132 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Table 20: Progress and challenges ahead in mainstreaming adaptation, as identified by the Development Assistance Committee of the OECD

Progress Challenges Many development co-operation agencies and Multilateral Donors should play a more active role in bringing climate Development Banks have taken formal commitments to change related risks and possible opportunities to the integrate climate change concerns as part of their opera- attention of developing country policy-makers and seek tions. entry points for climate change-related dialogue. Donor agencies and International Financial Institutions Donors must work towards harmonized approaches for have made considerable progress in raising awareness assessing and integrating climate risks in the projects and among their staff of the risks posed by climate change programs which they support. and the importance of integrating climate change into development activities. Several donor agencies have also made special efforts to discuss these issues with their partners in the context of policy dialogues at various levels. Many donor agencies and International Financial Institu- Donors and partners need to move from identifying the tions have begun to systematically assess the climate risks posed by climate change to ongoing projects to vulnerability of the various activities which they support, reducing those risks in a pro-active and strategic manner, with a view to building in corrective precautionary meas- starting from the early stages of policy and program for- ures as needed. mulation. Current trends towards providing development co-operation support at the level of policies, programs and plans open up new opportunities in this regard, as well as avenues for enhanced policy dialogue on policies and strategies which can support “climate-resilient” long- term development. Some donors have begun working with vulnerable com- Donors also need to recognize that traditional knowledge munities to build resilience into development projects may offer experience and insights to building resilience, and encourage integration of National Adaptation Plans of which may help develop and implement locally-appropri- Actions (NAPAs) with Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers ate and situation-specific approaches. (PRSPs). Detailed assessments of climate change-related vul- Donors should support methodologies for assessing nerabilities have been conducted in many developing climate risks that are based on scientific data, including countries. observed climate data and climate model projections, Donor agencies have developed tools and methodologies as well as provide tools to enable developing countries to assess climate vulnerabilities and to identify adaptation to access information to inform their own development options in development policies, plans, programs and decisions, e.g. through regional earth observation and projects. These tools, which build on existing approaches climate projection tools. such as Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) and Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), should be shared to reduce redundant efforts.

Source: based on OECD 2008b

133 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS of mistakes and mal-development. The design of adapta- 10 percent of their budgets for agriculture and rural de- tion policies should therefore try as hard as possible to velopment in Maputo in 2003 during an African Union avoid repeating old mistakes. Only a few percent of de- conference. They developed the Comprehensive African velopment aid is directed to poverty alleviation. A larger Development Policy (CAADP) in the realm of NEPAD portion of aid is still being given to foreign policy and in 2004, a plan that guides the revival of different sec- economic interests.24 Rural development, as an issue of tors. Several bi- and multilateral donors have created development aid, lost attention, and the overall size of it the „Global Donor Platform for Rural Development“ in aid budget was halved between 1995 and 2005. which tries to revitalize and harmonize the aid going into the agricultural sectors and into rural develop- Most of the policy advice given in past decades was ori- ment. The World Bank chose the issue of „Agriculture ented towards freeing market forces. The international for Development“ for its World Development Report financial institutions recommended to opening up mar- 2007/08. These are all indicators of growing interest kets, privatizing infrastructure, and reducing subsidies in rural development after decades of neglect. However, to non-competitive sectors. As a result, poor people in the World Bank‘s approach to differentiate three agri- many developing countries lost most support institutions cultural worlds and to suggest specific policies (chap- that had been available in rural areas some decades ago. ter 2.3) by inter alia recommending migration to the Some examples include government-run veterinary serv- particular poor producers and less laborers, might be ices, government marketing boards, input support for economically rational, but it forces too many people to farmers and price support for consumers etc.. A general migrate to cities without any security that they might slowdown of public investment in rural infrastructure, receive a sufficient, or even any, income there. A rights- the breakdown of extension services, and the depletion based approach requires the government to first focus of natural resources without protection measures are all the resources available on the most vulnerable people. factors that contributed to the uneven growth in many countries worldwide (GDPRD 2005). The strategy was Climate change, in combination with an increased com- based on macroeconomic assumptions rather than on petition of different land uses (food – fodder – fuel), a sound needs assessment of the particularly poor seg- will probably be the most important driver for rural de- ments of the society. Growth rates were soaring in sev- velopment policies in the coming decades. It is there- eral developing countries, but poverty remained high, fore important that adaptation policies are developed in and the relative inequality increased in many countries favor of the most vulnerable and marginalized groups. – one of the reasons why so much literature has been Adaptation funds and adaptation-related policy advice published on how to foster pro-poor growth (see e.g. Ali should focus on them. A human rights-based assess- and Son 2007a; Ali and Zhuang 2007). ment can help to best orient the policies and the use of all instruments towards those most in need and to set Strategies in development policy should be oriented to- priorities of who should get support first and what can wards the needs of the most vulnerable groups. A posi- be implemented progressively. tive trend is that rural development has started to come back on the agenda as an important issue in national Development cooperation can play a crucial tool in all and international aid. The process of reviving this issue stages of adaptation policies. Different aid actors can started at the beginning of this century. In light of the play different roles in development aid. Bi- and multilat- current world food crisis, it is now gaining momentum. eral aid can help integrate adaptation into policy devel- The African Head of States committed to aim for using opment. Capacity must be built at all stages of the ad-

24 Eurostep, a European network of developing organisations, regularly publishes a DAC–shadow report, which documents the spending priorities of development assistance.

134 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS aptation process in developing countries, from disaster climate change are already visible, and the scientific evi- preparedness and early warning to insurance schemes dence that global warming is causing adverse impacts and policy design issues. Other stakeholders, such the is overwhelming. Because of this, adaptation to climate scientific community and NGOs, should be integrated change has become a key element in international cli- into adaptation planning. Each of these institutions can mate change negotiations. help to best design adaptation policies. Aid organisations can help with their experiences in project management Article 4.1 of the United Nations Framework Convention and implementation and also by mobilizing internation- on Climate Change (UNFCCC) states that parties shall ally available knowledge. „(...) formulate, implement, publish and regularly up- date national and, where appropriate, regional programs containing measures to (...) facilitate adequate adapta- 5.5 Response capacity in tion to climate change, (...)“ and „(...) cooperate in pre- intergovernmental organisations paring for adaptation to the impact of climate change.“ Article 4.4 states that developed countries shall „assist To deal adequately with the consequences of climate the developing country parties that are particularly change, good and harmonized institutional architecture vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change in is required. Effective cooperation will be a key compo- meeting the costs of adaptation to those adverse effects“ nent for a successful international response, with the (UNFCCC 1992). prime objective to strengthen national government institutions involved in adaptation. National governments The negotiations under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto have been identified as those having the obligation and Protocol are increasingly paying attention to adaptation responsibility to guarantee that the impact of climate issues. The Convention addressed the issue of funding change is assessed and that national policies are set up for adaptation in 1992 for the first time, and then in to use the available resources best in order to imple- 1997 the Kyoto Protocol became more concrete regard- ment sound adaptation policies. They have to organize ing the obligations to support adaptation in developing the scaling-up of lessons learned and design the policies countries. However, it was not until the adoption of the needed. Adaptation needs to be integrated into various Marrakesh Accords in 2001 that adaptation became a sector policies. prominent area for action. Since then, the pressure from affected developing countries has become stronger and National governments can and should be supported in stronger. their endeavour to implement adaptation policies by intergovernmental organisations which have started to In 2004, the Parties to the Convention concluded a far work on the issue of adaptation. The following over- reaching agreement with the Buenos Aires Program of view shall highlight existing commitments and proce- Work for Adaptation and Response Measures to adverse dural regulations inside the climate regime. It will also impacts of mitigation policies. The agreement sets up a discuss the roles of other intergovernmental organisa- two-track approach for adaptation work; track 1 is the tions who could contribute to a functioning adaptation development of a five-year program of work on the sci- infrastructure. entific, technical, and socio-economic aspects of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, and track 2, For the first years, adaptation to climate change was with the improvement of information and methodolo- only of marginal importance within climate negotia- gies, implements concrete adaptation activities, technol- tions and inside the international climate change com- ogy transfer, and capacity building. In November 2006, munity. It was perceived as a distraction from tackling during the meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP the root causes of climate change and mitigating global 12) and the 2nd Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto emissions. This perception has changed. The affects of Protocol convened in Nairobi, adaptation was finally

135 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS becoming a key issue of the negotiations. Governments any doubt, there has been some progress during the last renamed the five year program, calling it the „Nairobi years. But so far the financing for the funds is not on the Work Program on Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation right order by far. to Climate Change (NWP) (see Harmeling 2008). The NWP carries out activities, basically workshops and In that context, it becomes clear that the UNFCCC is technical papers, to improve countries‘ understanding the key negotiation platform for adaptation policies. The and assessment of impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, advantage of the UNFCCC as a host for the Adaptation and „to make informed decisions on practical adapta- Fund is that the UNFCCC is a Convention under the tion actions and measures to respond to climate change United Nations allowing all members to participate with on a sound scientific, technical, and socio-economic equal voting rights. Funds managed only by the World basis, taking into account both current and future cli- Bank or by the GEF would follow the decision-making mate change and variability“, in the following areas structure of the World Bank with weighted votes ac- (UNFCCC 2008c): cording to the financial engagement. The World Bank and the GEF aim at playing a stronger role in the debate, 1. Methods and tools in order not to be sidelined in the adaptation debate, 2. Data and observations which might receive a lot of funding in the future. The 3. Climate modeling, scenarios and downscaling GEF is administering the SPA and is currently providing 4. Climate related risks and extreme events secretariat services on an interim basis to the Adaptation 5. Socio-economic information Fund. But the fund is working on a UNFCCC-based gov- 6. Adaptation planning and practices ernance structure. 7. Research 8. Technologies for adaptation With regard to adaptation related to food security, a very 9. Economic diversification important set of intergovernmental organisations are the Rome-based agencies working in the area of food secu- For the financing of adaptation to climate change, a rity, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the number of funds have been established in the UN cli- International Fund for Agricultural Development IFAD, mate change process. As part of its general tasks, inside and the World Food Program (WFP). The strength of the GEF (Global Environment Facility‘s Trust Fund) the FAO in adaptation policies could be to coordinate the SPA (Strategic Priority on Adaptation) has been set early warning assessments and to coordinate the disas- up. With the Marrakesh Accords, the Least Developed ter preparedness of the UN-system for agriculture and Countries Fund (LDCF) and the Special Climate Change rural areas with the WFP. Fund (SCCF) were established under the COP, but op- erated by the GEF. Finally, the Adaptation Fund under Another role for the FAO could be to specialize with the Kyoto Protocol started work at the beginning of this IFAD in policy advice on how to set up adaptation poli- year (UNFCC). This is a breakthrough as it is the first of cies that are oriented toward rural poor and the most these funds which is not based on voluntary contribu- vulnerable. The FAO should build that policy advice tions but on a levy of project-based emission trading in around the Voluntary Guidelines on the progressive developing countries (Clean Development Mechanism, implementation of the right to adequate food, which CDM). was adopted by the FAO-Council in November 2004. The role of WFP would be to help countries identify While the SPA, the LDCF, and the SCCF are already the most vulnerable groups with sound needs assess- fully operational, the governing Board of the Adaptation ments. Together with IFAD and FAO, the WFP should Fund is now in the process of developing and agreeing develop a policy proposal for safety nets in rural areas as upon guidance for its work, including criteria of how to tools in adaptation policies. IFAD is a financing mecha- use the funding (see www.adaption-fund.org). Without nism specializing in the support of rural poor. It is the

136 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS one organization from the Rome-based agencies which Who will support countries in implementation is most oriented towards particularly poor and vulner- projects and programs? able groups. It should be discussed in which form the emerging UNFCCC finance structure could cooperate Other institutions with relevance to this issue are those with IFAD. where important macroeconomic rules are being set. The World Trade Organization, regional or bilateral Unfortunately the current food security architecture trade, and investment agreements are examples of these of the United Nations is quite weak and needs reform. institutions. They need to make sure that rules and regu- There is much overlap between the three Rome-based lations promoted by them do not hinder governments to agencies; however, all were recently evaluated, and are adapt to changing circumstances. Emergencies, for ex- in the process of restructuring. The FAO process shall ample, the increase in extreme weather events, might come to an end in November 2008. These reorganiza- force countries to stop exporting agricultural goods in tion processes should also be used to develop a good order to supply its own population. Some countries have division of labor concerning their future work related approved export bans during the current world food cri- to climate change. Other organisations involved in sis. Even if institutions, such as IFPRI, speak out against this process are the UN-OCHA, the UN-office for the such a step, because it takes away the incentives to local coordination of humanitarian affairs, and the Food Aid farmers to increase production, there will be situations Convention, which also needs to be re-negotiated up to in the future that will require governments to act. Trade June 2009. rules should also have all the necessary flexibility to react to the potential impact of climate change. The coordination among these institutions needs to find a division of labor with respect to the following tasks: To conclude, several intergovernmental organisations (IGOs) have embarked with work related to adaptation Which organisations shall be involved in work re- to climate change. This is often related to their particu- lated to food security, disaster preparedness and early lar mandates such as food or health, which will be af- warning? fected by climate change. On the other hand, all IGOs are interested in getting a share of the financial flows Who is involved in using the available climate data that are to be expected for adaptation policies in devel- and applying them to agriculture, fisheries, and forestry? oping countries. So far, the financial flows are not high, Who can help developing countries receiving up to date but this might change soon, particularly with financing information? mechanisms such as the Adaptation Fund, which will be funded from carbon market instruments. Which are involved in humanitarian assistance and emergency aid? Details of the financing mechanisms will be presented in chapter 6.3. The number of organisations involved is How can it be guaranteed that humanitarian assist- already quite high, and it is therefore an individual task ance and emergency aid get the long term food security to coordinate the work of the different IGOs in order of the affected and vulnerable population in the focus? to avoid duplication of work and to best support countries in developing a national adaptation strategy. The Who is primarily responsible for policy advice for final coordination will be an ongoing task for the climate adaptation policies at the national and local level? negotiations, but also for the coordination among UN- agencies. Who is going to organize a global minimum reserve of food in order to cope with several weather catastrophes in one year?

137 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS 6 Climate change and poverty – substantive changes in the national economic structure. economics of adaptation It will also influence the income situation of the government, which will be one of the important sources to finance adaptation policies. The impact of climate change is already visible today. Climate change will hit poorer countries and their peo- Public budgets will not only face a decrease of income, ple particularly hard. It will change their development but also potentially an increase in public expenditure, perspective, and might destroy their opportunities. It for example, for food and water supplies. Public budg- puts development at risk – but it also creates new op- ets will be potentially affected largely by the costs for portunities. financing infrastructure to cope with climate change, such as the dam constructions etc. The spread of ad- This chapter will discuss the connection between cli- ditional diseases will create extra costs. As a result, less mate change and development, or more precisely be- money will be available for the regular implementation tween climate change and the prevalence of poverty. of the MDGs. Moreover, it will discuss the estimated cost of adaptation policies and present key economic aspects of adap- Climate change will lead to additional risks for develop- tation to climate change. ment perspectives, particularly in those countries which will be substantially hit. But climate change will also require a lot of investment in adaptation and mitigation 6.1 Climate change, the MDGs and measures. However, these measures might – if they are development prospects not done in an intelligent way, – compete with investment into poverty reduction and sustainable economic UN Millennium Development Goals provide the most growth. precise definition of what should be achieved when the UN talks about development. Climate change will affect However, as shown before, if done in the right manner, the realization of all MDGs as has already been shown adaptation can bring about direct benefits for poverty above. „Forget about making poverty history. Climate reduction. Where there are limited prospects for suc- change will make poverty permanent“ is a slogan of the cessful adaptation, for example in low-lying communi- British non-governmental organisation Practical Action. ties because of the threat of sea-level rise, it might even The relevant impact of climate change on development be necessary to use financial resources to compensate will be on the income opportunities people might loose people for their losses instead of investing into adapta- or be reduced as a result of climate change. The loss of tion. productive land through salt water intrusion or through desertification can destroy the livelihood of a family. The increasing environmental scarcity in some regions might be one important factor to trigger conflicts. Darfur Climate change will alter economic opportunities of is one example showing that the ongoing depletion and larger segments of the population. Adaptation policies overuse of livelihoods can become one of the reasons need to cope with these socio-economic changes if ad- for conflict. Such processes, both environmentally- equate answers are to be found as to the problem of induced conflicts and situations where the impact of these affected groups. climate change might aggravate existing conflicts, will increase the number of refugees and cause migration. Climate change will also have an impact on the econo- Migrants and internally displaced persons (IDP) are be- my as a whole. The cost of importing food, in the case coming two of the most vulnerable groups that might be of low income food deficit countries, might increase affected by climate change. And they are without many drastically. Larger scale losses of fertile land will lead to coping capacities to deal with this new situation.

138 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS 6.2 Financial aspects of adaptation emplified for the agricultural, forestry, and fisheries sec- to climate change: assessing costs and tors according to an UNFCCC study. Adaptation costs benefits in the year 2030 are estimated, which means that they are relatively independent of mitigation activities in the Financing adaptation will be a key issue in the coming next years, due to the inertia in the climate system and decades. the delayed warming effects.

„The poor have mechanisms to cope with cli- In any case, a baseline scenario is needed, on top of mate variability since generations, but many which additional adaptation costs will be estimated. of these will be overwhelmed by the extent of Based on scenarios of population and economic growth, changes or other pressures on their livelihood“ it is expected that the level of resources spent on re- (DfID 2006). search in this sector will continue to grow by about 2 percent per year. Resources spent on extension are as- The economic costs of more extreme weather events sumed to rise by 20 percent in developing countries due will reduce financial possibilities to finance develop- to their current and emerging food issues. ment, but also to finance adaptation measures. Several current government functions (financing water services, Thirdly, certain levels of investment in physical assets financing import bills for food in LIFDC) will become are estimated based on scenarios of the OECD and the more expensive. Losses in agricultural income are, for International Energy Agency. As additional adaptation many countries, equivalent to general losses in growth costs, the following is assumed: and GDP. For many poor people, climate change will destroy their livelihoods and make them even more vul- an additional increase of 10 percent is assumed for nerable to food insecurity. research and extension expenditures,

Calculating the costs of adaptation and climate change an additional 2 percent for new capital is needed to is not an easy task. But it is necessary as a precondition inter alia irrigate areas, adopt new practices etc. This to receive financial support for climate change-related relatively low percentage is due to the assumption that activities. Costs assessment approaches should be ex- „most agricultural and fisheries capital have a short life

Table 21: Estimated additional investment and financial flows needed for adaptation in 2030 (billions of USD)

Sector Global Developing countries (Non Annex I Parties) Agriculture, forestry and fisheries 14 7 Water supply 11 9 Human health 5 5 Coastal zones 11 5 Infrastructure 8 to 130 2 to 41 Total 49 to 171 28 to 67

Source: based on UNFCCC 2007a

139 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS (10 to 20 years) and would be replaced and adapted as (1) differences in adaptive capacity: different economic climate change proceeds“ (UNFCCC 2007a, 102). For resources, countries will not develop in the same ways the latter one, research is important. with regard to the economy, population etc;

This analysis, which is based on estimated investments (2) most adaptations will not be solely for the purpose and financial flows of USD 305 billion in 2030 in this of adapting to climate change: Most useful adaptation sector in developing countries, results in additional ad- actions will have benefits even without climate change, aptation costs of USD 7.2 billion, which is about 2.3 and addressing adaptation in an integrated manner is percent (UNFCCC 2007a). In research, the additional desirable; however, some actions are needed specifically costs are estimated to be about 10 percent of the in- due to climate change (e.g. coastal protection infrastruc- vestments of USD 13 billion. In capital formation, it is ture) (see also OECD 2008a); about 2 percent. The UNFCCC made similar analyses for other sectors (water supply, human health, natural (3) the uncertainties associated with any readily availa- ecosystems, coastal zones, and infrastructure) and end- ble method to estimate adaptation costs: These methods ed up with estimates of additional adaptation costs (see will be further explained below; and Table 21). (4) the existence of an adaptation deficit: Existing pro It is important that this, and other analyses, only ad- perty and activities are insufficiently adapted to current dress parts of the costs that will be necessary to cover, climate, including its variability and extremes. They are and it also lacks a human face. One key challenge will not climate-proof, and they do not even take climate be to prepare people, in particular agricultural farmers, change into account. to the risks that changing climate brings. Capacity building for communities on a large scale is one task that is a Under 3, UNFCCC distinguishes four methods: blind spot of many cost estimates (Oxfam 2007). UNDP, for example, includes estimates specifically for strength- (1) A complete bottom-up approach: Cost estimates re- ening poverty reduction programs in ways that build fer to projects and programs being identified as neces- resilience and reduce vulnerability. It assumes an ex- sary, like in the NAPAs. tra investment of 0.1 percent of OECD countries‘ GDP, which results in USD 40 billion in 2015, plus USD 2 bil- (2) Extrapolation of the bottom-up method, as Oxfam lion to strengthen disaster response, and USD 44 billion has done. Based on the cost estimates of existing for „climate-proofing“ those investments that are tak- NAPAs, these were scaled up to all 49 LDCs based ing place as part of the Official Development Assistance on factors such as population, income, and land area (UNDP 2007,194). (Oxfam 2007).

The recent study of the OECD on economic aspects (3) The UNFCCC used current global expenditures in of adaptation concluded that global studies of adapta- sectors and applied a rule of thumb to estimate addition costs are available, but face very serious limitations tional costs for meeting development needs and climate (OECD 2008a). Some sectoral adaptation cost studies change adaptation. This method can at least give an or- are very good, but there are no studies for all relevant der of magnitude, but results can vary depending on the sectors. Such an overview would be needed in order to assumptions being made. set priorities correctly. In general, there are a number of difficulties in assessing the costs. According to the (4) Top-down quantified analysis, in which the UNFCCC UNFCCC, key limitations for estimating adaptation uses the water and coastal resources and a human health costs can be grouped in four areas (UNFCCC 2007a, analysis in this study. Models and uniform cost rules can 96): be applied to estimate costs. The advantage is that „dif-

140 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Figure 22: Distribution of adaptation costs by sector for each country

Source: OECD 2008a, 66

ferences across countries can reflect different conditions The NAPAs, as outlined before, also include cost assess- and needs“ (UNFCCC 2007a, 98). ments of the projects identified as priorities in a more bottom-up approach. Figure 22 analyses how the costs A general lesson is that the choice of method depends of priority projects are distributed across different sec- on the purpose of the estimate. Even at a national policy tors. In most countries, agriculture and water combined levels, different methods will have to be applied in order to make up more than 50 percent of the costs, which to assess the overall risk for a country, but also to iden- underlines the importance of these sectors. tify resources that are needed to support those groups that have been identified as the most vulnerable. More As more and more examples of community-based adap- global estimates will help to identify the „bill“ that has tation emerge, it is also interesting to look at their costs. to be covered by governments according to their „dif- Oxfam gives three interesting examples (Oxfam 2007): ferentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities“. Again, it has to be recalled that non linear developments Coastal exposure: In Vietnam, the Red Cross has are usually not taken into account in these estimates. worked with its local branches and communities to But adaptation necessities in regardto these develop- plant 22,000 hectares of mangroves, providing 100 km ments might easily outweigh all other costs. of protection for sea and river dykes. The project ben-

141 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Table 22: Ten countries most affected by absolute and relative economic losses from extreme weather events in 2006

Rank Country Total losses in million Average Rank Country Losses in % Average US-Dollar in PPP 2006 1987-2006 of GDP 1987-2006 1 India 31,144 9196 1 Vietnam 2.39 1.34 2 China 24,515 39,356 2 Korea (DR) 1.67 - 3 USA 18,765 26,306 3 Philippines 0.96 0.32 4 Vietnam 6,841 2,015 4 India 0.74 0.46 5 Philippines 4,459 854 5 Malaysia 0.46 0.09 6 Indonesia 2,588 1,968 6 Indonesia 0.27 0.31 7 Japan 2,575 2,107 7 China 0.24 0.89 8 Germany 1,970 1,698 8 Australia 0.22 0.18 9 Russia 1,783 1,896 9 Afghanistan 0.22 - 10 Australia 1,563 776 10 Austria 0.22 0.14

Source: Harmeling 2007, 19

efited 1.2 million people – successfully protecting many ing USD 528,000 over five years. In Nicaragua, where communities from the impact of Hurricane Damrey in farmers face both droughts and floods, Oxfam‘s local 2005 – and cost USD 5 million over nine years. partners have supported communities with conservation agriculture, tree planting, and water. Flood risk: In India, Oxfam‘s local partners piloted a scheme to raise the foundations of 600 flood-prone These examples show that even with a limited amount mud houses, costing around USD 70 per house. In of money, many people can benefit if investments ad- Bangladesh, CARE worked with sixteen local NGOs to dress the right priorities and needs. support communities in adopting more flood-resilient livelihood strategies, stockpiling food in flood-proof stor- Given the large amount of damage costs that, for ex- age, harvesting rainwater, and creating floating vegeta- ample extreme weather events can bring about (Table ble gardens in waterlogged areas. The project benefited 22), there is little doubt that investments in adaptation 7,500 households, at a cost of USD 2.5 million over measures, in this case in disaster preparedness, pay off three years. in principal. It is estimated that one dollar invested into disaster preparedness saves between 2.5 and 13 dollars Water shortage: In Peru, where farmers face increas- of disaster aid (DfID 2005). ingly heavy rain, but dry winters, Practical Action‘s local partners have supported rural communities (cover- Thus, a full analysis of the costs of adaptation would ing 3,600 people) to understand the risks they face, have to include the benefits of adaptation. In this re- diversify their livelihoods, and cultivate native crops – gard, it is interesting that costing USD 200,000 over two years. In Zambia, where farmers face reduced and more erratic rainfall, Tearfund „adaptation costs are usually expressed in mon- has supported local NGOs in spreading the practice of etary terms, while benefits are typically quanti- minimum tillage farming, to retain soil moisture, aiming fied in terms of avoided climate impacts, and to benefit 12,500 households, as part of a project cost- expressed in monetary as well as non-monetary

142 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS terms (e.g. changes in yield, welfare, population learned, good practices, gaps, and needs in September exposed to risk)“ (Adger et al. 2007, 724). 2009. A workshop is supposed to follow in June 2010. It is unfortunate that this work is not being undertaken Benefits of adaptation can often not be distinguished before the important UN-climate summit in Copenhagen from non-climate related benefits, given the fact that, in December 2009, because such information will be for example, reducing vulnerability to climate change absolutely relevant for considerations of and decisions often reduces vulnerability to other stressors, which on the scale of adaptation funding in post-2012 and makes it more complex. mechanisms to generate the funding. Developed countries, in particular the US, also prevented more work Thus, the development of pragmatic approaches is im- being undertaken on the question of what future costs portant to handle costs and benefits. But even if there of adaptation will arise depending on different mitiga- are net benefits, initial investments have to take place, tion scenarios, it as has been discussed in a previous sometimes large ones, and in countries where on the decision draft. one hand public resources are already too scarce to fulfill non-adaptation development, and which on the oth- There is no doubt that further research and capacity er hand have not contributed significantly to the cause building on all levels is needed on adaptation costs and of climate change, external financial resources have to the methodologies to assess them. On the international be generated to support adaptation. level, different mitigation levels also have to be linked to estimates of the adaptation costs, in order to clarify A key element under the UNFCCC to advance the un- the implications of different long-term reduction goals derstanding and practical approaches to assess adapta- being discussed. tion costs and benefits, is the Nairobi Work Program on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (NWP). The NWP has the main objective of helping all countries 6.3 Current financing for adaptation improve their understanding of the impacts of climate change and to make informed decisions on practical A number of funding instruments exist under adaptation actions and measures. Thus, it is a good ex- the Convention, the Kyoto Protocol, and Official ample for cooperative action and sharing of experience Development Assistance (ODA). The overall resources among Annex-I and Non-Annex-I Parties. available lag far behind the cost estimates:

Key components for governments for making informed Investments through integration of adaptation in decisions are cost assessments. Many governments have Official Development Assistance: approx. USD 100 mil- stressed the need that further work of the NWP should lion for five years (UNFCCC 2007a); contribute to the considerations under the Bali Action Plan. Improved cost assessments will also be important Funds under the Convention: approx. USD 73 for the work of the Adaptation Fund Board. million (pledged: 90 million) for the Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) and USD 92 million for the Least In June 2008, at the climate negotiations in Bonn, ac- Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) (pledged 172 mil- tivities for the second part of the NWP‘s five year work lion) (GEF 2008); program were agreed upon (UNFCCC 2008a). Inter alia, the UNFCCC secretariat will prepare a technical paper Global Environment Facility (GEF) Strategic Priority on literature on the costs of adaptation before Poznan. for Adaptation: USD 50 million (UNDP 2007). Also, parties have been invited to submit their views on efforts undertaken to assess the costs and benefits At the same time developed countries start to invest of adaptation options, as well as their views on lessons heavily into domestic adaptation (see Figure 23).

143 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Figure 23: Developed country investments into adaptation and their contributions to UNFCCC Funds

1300 1200 1100 1000 UK annual flood and coastal 900 defence (2004-2005) 800 Venice flood gate (annually 700 2006-2011) 600

US $ Million 500 Aggregate donor adaption 400 fund pledges as of June 2007 (SCCF, LDCF) 300 200 100 0

Source: based on UNDP 2007

As part of the efforts to implement adaptation with re- countries, e.g. the Small Island Development States. gard the Convention, Parties agreed to support the Least Many developed countries could benefit from the NAPA Developed Countries (LDCs), which are particularly guidelines and the lessons learned in designing their vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change, own adaptation strategies, including active participation in formulating National Adaptation Programs of Action of vulnerable groups. (NAPAs). The key objective of the NAPAs is to identify, in a participatory national process, However, there are a number of limitations to the NAPAs, like the inadequate funding for preparation, which is „immediate needs – those for which further USD 200,000 for each LDC no matter which size they delay could increase vulnerability or lead to in- are, the project-bias, and, according to UNDP, weak creased costs at a later stage“ (www.unfccc.int/ links to human development (UNDP 2007). However, adaption/napas/items/2679.php). the NAPA process must be seen as a first step – not more but not less – which creates useful experience By May 2008, 33 Least Developed Countries had sub- on the way to designing comprehensive and integrated mitted their NAPAs to the UNFCCC, which are posted national adaptation strategies. In a recent meeting, the on the website. In most cases, the NAPA process has Least Developed Countries Expert Group been useful in better understanding the challenge of climate change, analyzing key sectors impacted, and iden- „noted with satisfaction the degree of integra- tifying priority projects. Following the progress from tion of NAPAs and NAPA priorities in national this process, other countries have called for expanding development plans and activities“ (UNFCCC the use of this instrument to other non-LDC vulnerable 2008c, 4).

144 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Nevertheless, implementation of the NAPAs has experi- Fund, with a non-Annex-I majority on the Adaptation enced little progress so far, and the prospects are quite Fund Board, it now has its work to do to fully operation- bleak. The key instrument for funding the NAPAs is alize the Adaptation Fund. It is important to note that the Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) under the the AF can not only finance projects, but also programs Convention. It constitutes of voluntary financial con- and activities. It is not principally tied to mere projects, tributions by Annex I countries. By March 2008, USD which many Annex-I countries fear, since integrating 172 million were being pledged to the LDCF, but only adaptation into national development plans and activi- USD 92 million were actually paid. The project volume ties is more promising in a longer-term perspective. financed so far is significantly less than that (ca. USD 12 million) (GEF 2008, 3). The Adaptation Fund has the potential to successfully demonstrate that effective international financing At the moment, 16 NAPA projects from different coun- mechanisms with direct access for developing countries tries are under consideration within the GEF (UNFCCC and independent from the conventional donor-recipient 2008c, 5). While some Annex I countries have made structures are possible. The better the AF will serve the significant contributions to the Fund, others, including goal of advancing adaptation in developing countries, the USA, Belgium, and Greece, have not even pledged the better it is suited to play a key role in future ad- to contribute. Comparing these resources with the fi- aptation financing beyond 2012. When developing its nancial demand of all 49 NAPAs, reveals the financing guidelines, it should address the questions of how to gap; it has been estimated to be somewhere between monitor project and program implementation in order USD 1 and 2 billion (Oxfam 2007, 21). Developing to ensure effective disbursement of the resources, and, countries have often complained about the complex more importantly, how to ensure that particularly vul- and lengthy procedure for proposals addressed to the nerable communities are prioritized as target groups. Global Environment Facility (GEF), which manages the LDCF. This is a key reason why until now, only a In Poznan, the Fourth Review of the financial mecha- few number of projects have been approved. The im- nism of the Convention (LDCF, SCCF etc.) will also plementation of NAPAs, including accessing the funds, have to deal with the obvious inadequacy of resources will play an important role in the 29th session of the provided thus far by Annex-I countries to the Funds SBI in Poznan, based on submissions submitted by 19th and other activities relevant to adaptation under the September 2008. Convention. This process has political implications for the post-2012 discussion, as the EU remarks: The Adaptation Fund is one of the most innovative funding instruments, because it is not fed by voluntary „This review should be seen as an integral part contributions but rather by a levy on project based emis- of future efforts with respect to a post-2012 sion reductions issued under the Clean Development climate agreement. It is therefore important Mechanism. The present forecast of the resources that to take fully into account the Bali Roadmap as will flow into the AF from the levy on the CDM will it has a bearing on the review of the financial probably be larger than the voluntary contributions into mechanism“ (UNFCCC 2008b, 21). the Convention Funds, but still insufficient to cover the needs. At current prices of around EUR 20 per tonne, the The EU also underlines that the available resources are estimated to be between about EUR 500 million to 1 billion (UNFCCC).25 After Parties „financial and investment flows will have to be agreed on the governance structure of the Adaptation considerably scaled up and redirected towards

25 Own calculation based on www.cdm.unfccc.int/statistics/index.html

145 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS low-carbon sustainable development, if we are the Kyoto Protocol – in lengthy and very contentious to credibly address the challenge before us“ discussions – that the World Bank came up with anoth- (UNFCCC 2008b, 21). er Fund which – by the World Bank‘s nature – had to be less fair and appropriate than the Adaptation Fund‘s Here, the inadequacy of the financial resources available structure.26 The international pressure on the proposed under the Convention‘s financial mechanisms has been funds has resulted in some improvements. Of particular described. Increasing the financial flows is urgently importance is the sunset clause, which states that the needed. It is also a matter of building trust from devel- PPCR will not finance activities beyond the year 2012 oped to developing countries, and that they are will- when the entry into force of a new international climate ing to better meet their commitments manifested in the agreement is expected (World Bank 2008). This reiter- Convention to support the developing countries. ates that the UNFCCC is the primary actor on climate- related purposes. The G8 summit in Hokkaido launched two new climate-related funds under the World Bank: the Climate However, at a time when the negotiations on a new Technology Fund and the Strategic Climate Fund. The post-2012 climate change agreement are gaining speed, latter, through the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience it was highly insensitive to have funding opportunities (PPCR), is supposed to support a number of develop- outside the UNFCCC process emerge, especially funds ing countries in the integration of climate resilience into with a probably much larger financial volume, while the their development activities. The size of this fund is ex- UNFCCC instruments still remain largely underfunded. pected to be around USD 300-500 million. There has In the first place, the existing UN Funds, including the been considerable irritation for the UNFCCC process Adaptation Fund, should be supported. And setting up emerging from this initiative. Japan, the US, and UK are a new fund with the objective to build on the experi- the key drivers behind these new funds, but other G8 ence of the NAPAs seems strange if the fund intended members might also make contributions. to finance the NAPA implementation was suffering from scarcity of finances. While the key objective of this Fund is for good reason – advancing the understanding and experience with ap- Even more important is the question of the different proaches to integrate adaptation into national planning roles different institutions will have to play. While there processes – a number of issues raise serious concerns. are great expectations that a post-2012 framework will Providing loans for adaptation is inappropriate given the deliver large-scale financing for adaptation in the devel- compensatory nature of adaptation, and concessional oping world, it remains clear that even if that will hap- loans are mentioned as one potential instrument. Any pen, other instruments will continue to exist or even adaptation financing has to be in full cost grants, in ad- emerge. One such example is the regional adaptation dition to the ODA commitments. It has to be seen how cooperation funds linked to ongoing policy processes, the governance structure balances in reality between like the Joint Africa-EU strategy. The World Bank will developing and developed countries, which are now – probably continue to exist. For an overall financing after many protests – supposed to have an equal number framework, and also for the credibility of those who give of votes. And finally, it was seen as very strange that only money and those who receive it, it will be important to a couple of months after an agreement was reached on develop a minimum standard of key principles, in order the governance structure of the Adaptation Fund under to avoid sidelining the UNFCCC process and disturbing

26 The governance structure of the adaptation fund forsees sixteen members, each representing country groups. Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) have different seats. Each of these heavily-affected groups has one vote to adopt decisions, independent of their power or financial contributions to the Fund.

146 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS this debate by disrespecting certain principles. It could Governance structures have to reflect the „one be considered that the UNFCCC process also sets the country, one vote“ principle and must result in a vot- criteria for regional funds. Key principles for adaptation ing majority of those countries most affected by climate financing will be outlined in the following subchapter. change – the small island states, states with low-lying coasts, as well as least developed countries;

6.4 Principles for adaptation financing Expenditures for adaptation should have a focus on and future instruments increasing the adaptive capacity of those people who are most vulnerable to climate change. Developing coun- The new and developing world of funding and financing try governments are expected to prioritize vulnerability for climate change adaptation poses many challenges: reduction as much as possible for the most vulnerable morally, politically and economically. However, it is people. This is part of their obligation to secure the hu- necessary to consider a range of fundamental principles man rights of its people whose fulfillment is threatened based on an equity approach for steering the discussion by climate change. Examples include people‘s right to and design of the policy and institutional architecture. food security, the right to health, and access to sufficient The following principles are based on the Framework fresh water etc.; Convention (UNFCCC) as well as the Bali Action Plan (see Harmeling and Vaughan 2008): Transaction costs should be kept to a minimum and coordination between funding mechanisms maxi- Financing adaptation by developed countries should mized; be seen as an obligation originating in harmful actions being taken, namely fostering global warming by green- Transparency of criteria, disbursement, and moni- house gas emissions. Thus, it is of compensatory nature, toring is needed. and any adaptation financing has to flow in grants and not loans; Delivering on these principles will be one of the key challenges for a post-2012 agreement as well as for ad- Timely and predictable delivery, which overcomes aptation work in other forums. The negotiations under the failure of relying on voluntary contributions; the UNFCCC have to quickly become quickly more concrete if an effective and comprehensive outcome in New and additional resources, which basically Copenhagen 2009 is to be agreed on. This deal cannot means that resources delivered by developed countries be a gradual improvement of the Kyoto Protocol, but for adaptation have to be additional to the existing and must result in a quantum leap forward on mitigation as mostly unfulfilled commitments to spend 0.7 percent of well as adaptation for developing countries. The June their Gross Domestic Product into Official Development negotiations in Bonn have shown that some Parties are Assistance (ODA) (it at least should be additional to the becoming more concrete and have put specific proposals agreed upon steps to reach the 0.7 percent target); on the table, including ideas on how to generate large amounts of resources needed for adaptation and other The principles of equity and of common but dif- purposes. Müller in a recent paper prepared a very use- ferentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities ful overview of the different instruments for generating should be the underlying principles for allocating these resources being discussed. funding obligations. Responsibility is closely linked to the „polluter pays“ principle; Some countries have proposed instruments that would end up in a formula for sharing contributions to a fund, Adaptation funds should respond to needs identified similar (but perhaps less sophisticated) to Table 8 in at the national and regional level; chapter 2.8 (UNFCCC 2008d):

147 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS The „Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS)“ pro- ers´ money. At a stage where resources provided would posed that an adaptation fund under the Convention reach the scale of billions, it is likely – and that shows should be established, based on indicators of responsi- past experience – that countries would step back from bility for greenhouse gas emissions and capability; their commitments (Müller 2008). Given this, realisti- cally, the aforementioned proposals are unlikely to pro- Mexico put forward a proposal for a world climate vide resources in a predictable and sustainable manner. change fund to support mitigation, adaptation, and technology cooperation through financial contributions from There are other proposals which have a better perform- developed and developing countries based on criteria ance in such principle-based analysis. Norway proposed such as emissions, population, and gross domestic prod- that adaptation should be financed through auctioning uct (GDP); a share of assigned amount units (AAUs), the emission allowances granted to developed countries which have China proposed scaling up funding from developed ratified the Kyoto Protocol. In that case, it would be, for countries through a percentage of GDP (0.5 percent) example, private companies who have emission obliga- in addition to existing official development assistance tions under national/regional emission trading systems. to support an adaptation fund and a multilateral tech- They would have to auction part of their obligations, nology acquisition fund. Developing countries would or Parties might miss filling emission reduction targets have to contribute nothing to this fund, independently domestically. These payments would truly generate re- of their responsibilities for greenhouse gas emissions or sources in addition to ODA flows. economic capability. Norway also proposed to use revenues from auction- In addition, Switzerland proposed a global carbon tax ing in the maritime sector to fund adaptation activities with an exemption for countries whose annual per in developing countries, e.g. through the Adaptation capita emissions are less than 1.5 tonnes of carbon di- Fund. Other possible approaches were mentioned in oxide. The resources generated would flow into a mul- Parties´ presentations, including a levy on international tilateral fund for adaptation and insurance along with air travel, extension of the share of proceeds that cur- national climate change funds in all countries. Also this rently exists under the CDM to other mechanisms, and idea would indirectly take into account the capabilities, a levy on bunker fuels (UNFCCC 2008d). since developing countries would receive a much larger share of the revenues for adaptation, and also because These proposals would address private companies and the 1.5 t carbon dioxide threshold can be interpreted in individuals and would be more or less compatible with relation to the level of economic capability. the „polluter pays“ principle. For example, an aviation levy (per ticket or in percentage of price), even if also These proposals would, in theory, provide relatively sus- imposed in developing countries, would only target tainable, predictable resources, and could also generate those who book flights, particularly intercontinental the adequate scale (tens of billions of USD) of necessary flights. These produce relatively large „CO2 footprints“ finances. However, the contributions from most of the for individuals, and those who can afford these flights developed countries would probably not be additional are not the poor. to the 0.7 percent ODA commitment, since most countries would strive to fill up their ODA quota with these Since each instrument has its strengths and weaknesses, resources. But even more important is what Müller a combination of some of the latter possibilities seems to called the domestic revenue problem. When resources be the most promising approach, and it would still be in for international purposes come from national budgets – line with the leading principle of common but differenti- even if they were generated through mechanisms other ated responsibilities and capabilities. The auctioning of than taxes – there is the perception that it is tax pay- AAUs would only apply to countries and sectors which

148 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS have emission obligations under an emission trading scheme (Annex I and maybe some rapidly developing countries with sectoral agreements), and instruments like the aviation levy would address those individuals

who have a bigger „CO2 footprint“ and are capable of paying flights. In all instruments, the amount of resources generated – the adequacy – depends on a number of assumptions and influencing factors, some of which will solely depend on the political decisions and others on the market price of emissions.

Once a large scale of resources is generated, if this does occur, it remains to be decided if one operating entity will strategically manage these funds or if they will be disbursed to different sub-entities who have particular expertise in certain fields or to regional entities etc. Part of this strategic management must be to assist the implementation of incentivizing frameworks for adaptation within countries, for both actions undertaken by the public and private sectors. Public and private adaptation investments are needed. In many developing countries, the share of public investments and the share of adaptation costs – especially when addressing the most vulnerable communities – may be higher than in developed countries. Nevertheless, many actions relevant for adaptation are being undertaken by different private actors (OECD 2008a). It is argued that

„in theory, such actions should be autonomous. Self-interest should be a sufficient incentive for such actors to undertake measures that reduce their vulnerability to climate risks or to exploit potential business opportunities“ (OECD 2008a, 26).

But in practice, governments will have a role to play to create enabling environments through different kinds of measures to incentivize adaptation in the private sector and to support those who can not afford private sector solutions.

Eventually, any mechanism and the actors involved, including governments in developing countries, will have to prove that they are able to deliver adaptation and climate resilience to the most vulnerable.

149 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Part III

Regional studies on climate change impacts, food security and response capacity

7 Research results for Africa27 century – endangering the sustainability of the world‘s environment, its agriculture, and consequently the health of its people (IPCC 2001). Most forms of agriculture and food production activities in Africa are sensitive to change in the climatic system. It is anticipated that African countries in particular will Change in climate (moisture, heat or wind) can affect endure some of the worst effects of climate change, food production directly, while climate shocks (such mainly because of the heavy reliance on rain-fed agri- drought or floods) may wipe out crops, push up food culture. These countries are already limited by social prices, and destroy properties, thereby confronting peo- (the region has the highest proportion of people living ple with stark choices. However, it is important to recog- in extreme poverty (UN 2006)), technical, and envi- nize that agricultural production is based on three types ronmental factors including widespread poverty, fragile of resources which include, but go beyond climate: ecosystems, weak institutions, conflicts and ineffective governance. The latest IPCC report confirmed that be- natural resources (climate, soil, topography, genetic cause of Africa‘s high dependence on natural resources endowments), and other climate sensitive sectors, such as agricultural systems heavily dependent on rainfall, climate change is capital resources (e.g. fertilizers, energy and other likely to exacerbate the threats to the livelihoods of the inputs), and many people in Africa.

human resources (labor, management practices, Climate data for Africa for the last 30-40 years show market conditions). that the continent has been warming, which is contributing to more erratic but intense rains. In other words, For Africa, limited capital resources required purchasing warming is causing more droughts but also more floods farm inputs, like fertilizers, and climate and soil condi- (Nyong 2005). Climate change threatens both crop and tions play an important role in the level of agricultural livestock production in a number of ways. Crop yields production. are expected to fall in regions predicted to become hotter and drier; this may make some areas too dry for agriculture and food production, especially the arid and 7.1 Effects of climate change on food semi arid areas. production, agriculture and water availability Rainfall exhibits notable spatial and temporal variabil- 7.1.1 Changes in climatic conditions ity. But in general, a decline in annual rainfall has been observed from several studies. Studies also observed a The global scientific community views climate change decline in the amount of precipitation but an increase in as the most significant environmental threat of the 21st intensity, which at times results into floods; this obser-

27 Based on a contribution by Stephen O. Anyango (Department of Environmental Science, Kenyatta University, Kenya) and Victor Orindi (International Development Research Centre, Kenya).

150 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Table 23: Observed changes in precipitation in parts of Africa

Region/Country Observed Changes West Africa (4°-20°N; 20°W- 19 40°E A decline in annual rainfall has been observed since the end of the 1960s, with a decrease of 20 to 40% noted between the period of 1931 and 1960 and the period of 1968 to 1990 The tropical rainforest zone A decline in mean annual precipitation of around 4% in West Africa, 3% in North Congo and 2% in South Congo for the period 1960-1998 Southern Africa Increased interannual variability in the post-1970 period, with higher rainfall anomalies and more intense and widespread droughts noted Angola, Namibia, Mozambique A significant increase in heavy rainfall events Guinean coast A 10% increase in annual rainfall for the last 30 years

Source: Nicholson et al. 2001; Fauchereau et al. 2003; Chappell and Agnew 2004; Dai et al. 2004; New et al. 2006

vation is consistent with some of the projections from Only limited experiments have been conducted in Africa regional circulation models (Table 23). on regional climate change scenarios using climate models or empirical downscaling are mainly due to restrict- Large parts of Africa already experience climate variabil- ed computational facilities and problems of insufficient ity, which is experienced in terms of changes in rain- climate data in the region (Swart et al. 2002; Jenkins et fall distribution, frequency, and intensity of dry spells al. 2002). But the results show serious concerns about (Reason et al. 2005). Droughts have long contributed agriculture and food insecurity situation in Africa due to to human migration, cultural separation, population current climate variability and soil degradation associ- dislocation, and the collapse of prehistoric and early ated with climate change. historic societies (Pandey et al. 2003). About one third of the people in Africa lives in drought-prone areas If current trends continue, it is predicted that by 2060, and is vulnerable to the impacts of droughts. Droughts sub-Saharan Africa will be warmer by 2.9°C, and it will have mainly affected the Sahel, the Horn of Africa, and have 4 percent less rainfall in the interior. Water loss southern Africa, particularly since the end of the 1960s will be further exacerbated by higher evaporation rates (Richard et al. 2001; L‘Hôte et al. 2002; Brooks 2004). (UNDP 2007; Nyong 2005). Indeed, the latest IPCC This may worsen with long-term climate change. report projects that warming will likely be above the global average throughout the sub-Saharan Africa. Observational records show that Africa has been warming throughout the 20th century at the rate of about 7.1.2 The state of food insecurity in Africa 0.05° C per decade, with slightly larger warming in the June-November seasons than in December-May (Hulme According to Hellmuth et al., et al. 2001). Since the mid-1970s, precipitation has declined by about 2.4± 1.3 percent per decade in tropi- „Africa‘s variable climate is already contributing cal rainforest Africa. This rate is stronger in West Africa significantly to its development problems. The (-4.2± 1.2 percent per decade) and in northern Congo key development sectors of agriculture, water, (-3.2± 2.2 percent per decade) (Nicholson et al. 2001; energy, transport, and health are all particularly Nyong 2005). sensitive to climate variability.”

151 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Table 24: Hunger in Africa and the developing world

Region Total Population Total undernourished Undernoursihed as % of total population North Africa 144,400,000 6,1000,000 4% West Africa 230,300,000 36,400,000 15% Southern Africa 90,100,000 35,700,000 39% East Africa 226,500,000 92,400,000 40% Central Africa 82,000,000 45,200,000 55% Developing world 4,712 200,000 797,900,000 16%

Source: FAO 2005

Models show that the effects of climate change are world population and 25 percent of the undernour- likely to be very different across the continent, since ished people in the developing world (FAO 2006). In the initial climate conditions are quite different with the period 2001-03, 33 percent of the SSA population precipitation varying greatly across sub-regions (Ngaira was undernourished compared to 17 percent in the 2007). However, overall the impacts of climate change developing countries as whole (see Table 24). But the on Africa are expected to worsen the situation Hellmuth proportion rises to 55 percent in central Africa (Oxfam describes. 2006). Other worse off regions in Africa – with more than a third of their population undernourished – in- Currently a significant proportion of the food in Africa is clude southern and eastern Africa. In both regions, the grown as rain-fed annual crops, which means that even number of food insecure people has increased since the small changes in the climate can have big impacts on last world food summit held in Rome in 1996, despite a productivity. Countries that produce only a few princi- general reduction in the prevalence of global hunger. It pal commodities are generally thought to be more eco- should, however, be noted that regional or continental nomically sensitive to climate impacts, simply because figures often hide lower level differences. of the greater chance that a significant portion of their production will be affected by the same meteorological Some of the hunger hotspots in SSA include Niger, Sudan event or climate fluctuation. For water scarce regions, (specifically the Darfur region), Democratic Republic of climate change is likely to result in further reduction Congo, Mali, and Southern Africa as a region. While in available water through increased evaporation and many factors may be responsible for the state of food in- changes in patterns of rainfall and runoff (UNDP 2007). security in these places, wars and conflicts are largely re- An integrated approach including both socio-economic sponsible for the food insecurity situation in the Central and environmental aspects is necessary in the elimina- African Republic and in the Darfur region of Sudan. tion of hunger and malnutrition. According to Jones and It has been noted that an increase in the numbers of Thornton (2003), food production has to double in the hungry people in SSA since the year 1990-92 (WFS next 35 years if the world is to meet future needs. Baseline) was driven mainly by five war-torn countries including Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, To date, Africa has the highest rate of food insecurity Eritrea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. These countries com- with sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) being the most food bined account for 29 million out of the regions increase insecure region against a rapidly increasingly human of 37 million hungry people (FAO 2006). Particularly population. The region accounts for 13 percent of the worrying is the Democratic Republic of Congo, where

152 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS the number of undernourished people tripled from 12 ture will only stay under this threshold in this century, to 36 million with prevalence rising from 31 to 72 per- if worldwide a very harsh mitigation policy is realized. cent of the population (FAO 2006). Conflicts therefore Agricultural production in SSA could fall by up to 9 per- play an important role in the food insecurity situation cent. In Kordofan in northern Sudan, climate models in these countries, and may be exacerbated by climate indicate that temperatures could rise by 1.5°C between variability and change. In eastern Africa, the situation in 2030 and 2060. This would mean decline in rainfall Eritrea is of particular concern, because successive years of 5 percent, which could result in a 70 percent drop of inadequate rains have seriously undermined crop in sorghum yields. Cash crop production will not be and livestock production (FAO 2005). The expected spared either. In Uganda, an increase of 2°C in average demographic growth and socio-economic development temperatures could significantly reduce the land avail- in many African countries would result in substantial able for growing coffee, which is an important source increases in food requirements exacerbating the nega- of income to farmers and foreign exchange earner to tive effects of climate change (Gregory et al. 2005). It the country. While it may be possible to maintain tea was predicted that by 2005, one third of the African production in Kenya, production will have to move to population was at risk from widespread hunger and mal- higher slopes currently occupied by forests, suggesting nutrition, a situation likely to get worse with long-term that this can only be achieved with some extent of en- climate change (Royal Society 2005). vironmental damage.

7.1.3 Effects on food production, agriculture, For North Africa, which is already dry, even modest water, forests, fish and livestock temperature increases could significantly reduce water availability. An increase of 1°C could reduce water run- Extreme climatic events such as droughts and floods off in one of the watersheds in Morocco by 10 percent often affect food production negatively, and result in se- by the year 2020. Reduction in water availability will vere food shortages. In Malawi, for example, the 2002 seriously affect irrigated agriculture currently practiced drought left approximately 5 million people in need of in many dry areas. It is also worth noting that compared emergency food aid. This aid took a long time to arrive to other regions, SSA has lowest amount of land under just like in Niger, where in 2004/2005, around 2.5 mil- irrigation. lion people, or one fifth of the population, required such assistance (UNDP 2007, 84). The cycles of drought Floods are also critical and impact food production. experienced in many of the poor sub-Saharan African Recurrent floods in some countries are linked to neg- countries create poverty traps for many households. ative economic and human losses as a result (e.g. in These events constantly thwart efforts to build up as- Mozambique, Obasi 2005). Even countries located in sets and increase income. For pastoral and agro-pastoral dry areas (Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, and Somalia) have not groups, vulnerable households often find it difficult to been flood-safe (Kabat et al. 2002). A rise in temperature sell under-nourished animals for income to buy cereals, in excess of the agreed 2°C threshold would accelerate and the drop in prices adversely affects their food secu- the rise in flooding, and cause widespread displacement rity and terms of trade during drought. of people in such countries, especially in the low lying coastal areas. If the predicted temperatures increase by Climate change impacts on agriculture and food securi- the year 2030, then climatic zones would likely change ty could push additional 600 million people worldwide and support very limited agriculture, as most of the land at risk of hunger by 2080, in addition to projected rev- will be too marginal for farming, and probably only some enue losses of 26 percent by 2060 for dry land areas form of nomadic pastoralism may be viable. in sub-Saharan Africa. These figures are calculated at a threshold of 2°C (UNDP 2007, 90). In this case it Among the cereals, wheat production potential in the is important to note, with a high likelihood, tempera- sub-tropics is expected to be worst affected, with signifi-

153 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Figure 24: Overview of expected consequences of climate change in Africa

Source: Boko et al. 2007, 451

154 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS cant declines anticipated in Africa just like in South Asia of people under increased water stress will significantly and Latin America. In addition to the yield, changes in increase in the next 15 years, from 75 to 250 million climate are anticipated to affect crop quality. For exam- people (with a further increase until 2050). This will ple, decreases in protein content in some grains have primarily take place in Northern and Southern Africa. been associated with climate variability, which could In addition, local food supplies are projected to be nega- have major impacts on food quality. Other effects on tively affected by decreasing fisheries resources in large crop quality include pests and diseases, such as danger- lakes due to rising water temperatures, which may be ous levels of mycotoxins in groundnuts (Royal Society exacerbated by continued over-fishing. Lake Victoria 2005). for example represents an important food source for 30 million people in danger. The low-lying coastal zones of Africa are also likely to be affected with a rise in sea-levels. In Lower Egypt for However, Boko et al. (2007, 457) also note that example, possible displacement of 6 million people and flooding of 4500 km2 of farmland is likely with a 1-metre „the contribution of climate to food insecu- rise in sea-level. This would drive many people into des- rity in Africa is still not fully understood, par- titution, considering that 17 percent of the population ticularly the role of other multiple stresses that in the area live below poverty line (UNDP 2007, 100). enhance impacts of droughts and floods and possible future climate change. While drought Not all expected changes in climate will be negative. may affect production in some years, climate Growing seasons in certain areas may lengthen (as in variability alone does not explain the limits of the case of Ethiopian Highlands mentioned above), and food production in Africa. Better models and parts of dry areas may experience increased rainfall with methods to improve understanding of multiple climate change. As a result of a reduction in frost on the stresses, particularly at a range of scales, e.g., alpine zones of Mt. Kenya and Mt. Kilimanjaro, for ex- global, regional and local, and including the ample, it may be possible to grow more temperate crops, role of climate change and variability, are there- e.g. apples, pears, barley, wheat, etc., on the adjoining fore required.“ elevations (Parry et al. 2004). Mild climate scenarios predict further benefits across African cropland for irri- In addition to the direct impacts of climate change on gated and especially dry land farms. However, it is noted food security and the MDGs, recent research pays in- that even in these favorable scenarios, regions in the creasing attention on the role of water scarcity or re- Mediterranean, central, western and southern Africa duced food availability in the emergence of conflicts, that currently produce such crops stand to be adversely and through an increased competition concerning affected (Kurukulasuriya and Mendelsohn 2006). scarce resources. These may further aggravate the livelihoods of people. Climate change already represents Summarizing the Africa-related conclusions of the FAR, an important causation of existing conflicts, as several it becomes obvious that climate change compromises experts conclude for the Darfur conflict, where a long- the ability of many African societies to achieve the dif- term decline in rainfall has significantly contributed ferent Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and to to the scarcity of available fresh water (Ban-Ki Moon improve food security. The SPM of Working Group II of 2007). A recent study by the German Advisory Council the IPCC expects that the area suitable for agriculture, on Global Environmental Change (WBGU) concludes the length of growing seasons, and yield potential, par- that Africa is likely to be particularly affected by cli- ticularly along the margins of semi-arid and arid areas, mate change-induced security risks (WBGU 2008). In will decrease. The yields from rain-fed agriculture are Northern Africa, the potential for political crises and expected to decrease by up to 50 percent in some coun- the pressure from migration increases due to the inter- tries until 2020 (IPCC 2007b, 13). Also, the number twining of an increased number of droughts and water

155 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Table 25: Some examples of complex adaptations already observed in Africa in response to climate and other stresses

Theme Emerging characteristics of adaption Social resilience Social networks Perceptions of risks by rural communities are important in configuring the problem (e.g., climate and social capital risk). Perceptions can shape the variety of adaptive actions taken.

Networks of community groups are also important.

Local savings schemes, many of them based on regular membership fees, are useful financial ‘stores’ drawn down during times of stress. Institutions Role and architecture of institutional design and function is critical for understanding and better informing policies/measures for enhanced resilience to climate change.

Interventions linked to governance at various levels (state, region and local levels) either enhance or constrain adaptive capacity. Economic resilience Equity Issues of equity need to be viewed on several scales

Local scale (within and between communities)

Interventions to enhance community resilience can be hampered by inaccessibility of centers for obtaining assistance (aid/finance)

Global scale: see IPCC 2007b Diversification of Diversification has been shown to be a very strong and necessary economic strategy to increase livelihoods resilience to stresses.

Agricultural intensification, for example based on increased livestock densities, the use of natural fertilizers, soil and water conservation, can be useful adaptation mechanisms. Technology Seasonal forecasts, their production, dissemination, uptake and integration in model-based decision-making support systems have been examined in several African contexts (see examples given).

Enhanced resilience to future periods of drought stress may also be supported by improvements in present rain-fed farming systems through: – water-harvesting systems; – dam building; – water conservation and agricultural practices; – drip irrigation; – development of drought-resistant and early maturing crop varieties and alternative crop and hybrid varieties. Infrastructure Improvements in the physical infrastructure may improve adaptive capacity.

Improved communication and road networks for better exchange of knowledge and information.

General deterioration in infrastructure threatens the supply of water during droughts and floods.

Source: Boko et al. 2007, 453

156 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS scarcity. Along with a high population growth, this situ- ess has been underlined by many stakeholders, which is ation is weakening agricultural potentials and limiting largely attributed to an emphasis on participatory proc- political capabilities to solve the problem. The densely esses, consideration of both vulnerability and adaptation populated Nile delta is threatened by sea-level rise and to climate change, investigation of climate variability as the salination of agricultural areas. In the Sahel, climate well as climate change, a bottom-up approach, and ca- change causes additional environmental stress and so- pacity building and awareness raising. cial crises (e.g. droughts, harvest losses, fresh water scarcity) in a region which is already characterized by Although a number of constraints are mentioned in the weak states (e.g. Somalia, Chad), civil wars (e.g. Sudan, analysis – communication problems between the cen- Niger) and large streams of refugees (Sudan: more than tral offices and states, lack of sufficient technical capaci- 690,000 people; Somalia: more than 390,000 people). ties needed at local levels to play an active role in the In Southern Africa, climate change could further weak- assessment process, and insufficient financial resources en the agricultural potentials of countries belonging to and time, especially for large countries like Sudan and the poorest societies in the world. This would worsen Ethiopia – it can be concluded that the NAPAs serve as the state of human security and overstretch the govern- a good starting point to assess which adaptation needs ments‘ capabilities to respond adequately. African countries and their civil societies have. They are indeed country-driven processes, and many of them have contributed significantly to raising awareness and 7.2 Adaptation – experiences and building adaptive capacity among national stakeholders, priorities as much as it has been possible in a time span of about 18 months which it usually takes to prepare a NAPA Research shows that adaptation is already taking place (Osman-Elasha and Downing 2007). within the African agriculture system. Hellmuth et al. introduces 2007 examples of drought management in Although adaptation to anthropogenic climate change Ethiopia, flood management in Mozambique, drought is still young in Africa (and in the rest of the world), insurance in Malawi, and agriculture in Mali. Ethiopia different studies and workshops have tried to identify established policies and planning for drought man- some early lessons. For example, one regional workshop agement, in order to better cope with the recurring to discuss early lessons from climate change adaptation droughts. An early warning system was developed in projects in South-Eastern Africa was held in April 2007 order to ensure that sufficient external food aid reaches in Maputo, Mozambique (see IISD). It was organized by the country. Inter alia, it contains early warning com- IISD and SouthSouthNorth. More than 60 adaptation mittees on all government levels. Table 25 provides experts and practitioners from the region participated an overview of already observed adaptation activities and shared their experience. Key findings include: across Africa. Coping with extreme events: A number of African countries have developed National Adaptation Programs of Action (NAPAs) where they The unpredictability of natural disasters contrasts identified priority activities (Table 26). These now await with the short-term planning of local level policy. implementation. To understand the differences between and within An analysis of the NAPA processes in different coun- adaptation to climate change projects, we need to at- tries in Eastern and Southern Africa gives an outline of tempt to define what is meant by ‚adaptation‘. strengths and weaknesses in the development of the NAPAs (Osman-Elasha and Downing 2007). According There needs to be an understanding of how disaster to this analysis, the important role of the NAPA proc- relief fits into adaptation. The views expressed are to-

157 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Table 26: Overview of NAPA priority projects as submitted by African LDCs

Country Most common climate risks Examples of priority projects Totaled costs in million USD (number of projects) Congo, Intense rainfall event Dissemination of improved maize 5.6 (3) Democratic seeds Republic of Seasonal droughts Dissemination of improved rice seeds Flooding Dissemination of improved manioc Coastal erosion seedlings Djibouti Temperature and sea-level rise Risk reduction for coastal production 6.6 (8) systems, with community participation Salination Promotion of adaptation measures in Flooding water management

Droughts Eritrea Increased climate variability Introducing community based pilot 33 (5) rangeland improvement and manage- Sea-level rise ment in selected agro-ecological areas

Recurring drough Encourage afforestation and agro forestry through community forestry Flash flooding initiativ

Groundwater recharging for irrigation wells Lesotho Drought Improve resilience of livestock produc- 12.8 (11) tion systems under extreme climatic High temperature and heat conditions waves Promoting sustainable crop based Strong winds and dust storms livelihood systems

Cold winters, early frost and Capacity building and policy reform to heavy snowfall integrate climate change in sectoral development plans

Madagascar Change in agricultural conditions Rehabilitation and/or construction of 3.9 (15) dykes to safeguard water resources Degradation of fresh water resourcesSoil degradation Implementation of water management committee Saltwater intrusion Combat erosion through soil conser- Biodiversity loss vation measures which stabilize dunes

Shoreline retreat Malawi Floods Improving community resilience to 22.9 (5) climate change through the develop- Recurring droughts ment of sustainable rural livelihoods

Restoring forests in the Shire River Basin to reduce siltation and the associated water flow problems

Improving agricultural production under erratic rains and changing climatic conditions

Source: Harmeling, Burck and Bals 2007, 37

158 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS wards future, long-term adaptation of the communities Understanding must reach the donor sectors to have affected, as well as a need for stakeholder engagement more projects funded and the adaptive capacity of vul- in collaboration. nerable communities ensured.

More funds go towards disaster relief instead of Although this was only a regional workshop, it can be disaster preparedness. This fact could indicate that assumed that many of these lessons are valid for most funders are not clear as to what action to take (relief of Africa. versus adaptation). There is also a clear distinction between what has happened (disaster relief) and what can be prevented from happening (is this adapta- 7.3 Responses and capacity tion?). 7.3.1 Vulnerable communities There is still debate over whether adaptation is separate from development. Verification of inputs (data, The most vulnerable groups include smallholder farmers needs, etc) could be a way to discern adaptation from who are reliant on rain fed agriculture, pastoralists, and development (if this is appropriate). fishing communities. For example, there may be over 130 million poor livestock keepers in SSA – a group Adaptation to climate change has more to do with that is struggling with many challenges, even without social research and social institutions. climate change. Such challenges range from the harsh environmental conditions and distance from markets to Vulnerability is created by factors other than climate inappropriate policies on natural resource management. change, yet it is increased by climate change and vari- In many countries, the more productive land in pasto- ability. Social processes must be included in how we ral areas is being increasingly taken over by the farm- deal with adaptation. ing communities, thereby confining pastoral livelihood systems to more marginal areas (drier and water limit- General aspects: ing conditions) that can hardly support their livestock production system, increasing risks of livestock loss and There is a clear need across South-Eastern Africa re- low productivity as well as faster degradation of such gion (and globally) to form partnerships and understand areas. Extreme climatic events like drought also play a vulnerabilities to climate change and variability, based role in conflicts over natural resources. This sentiment on the affected community‘s perspectives; is true of pastoralists whose competition for water and grazing areas often become stiff during the dry seasons, The sustainability of responses must be incorporated and can sometimes lead to violent conflict among neigh- into planning; boring communities. All of these factors combine to increase livelihood vulnerability and food insecurity of the For disaster response, integration into development affected communities. strategies is needed; Communities across the continent have developed ways Better energy policy and regulation in light of cli- of dealing with impacts of climate related events over mate change and adaptation is required to mitigate time. Drought and floods are not new to many com- negative effects on this sector; munities in Africa. However, the increasing frequency and intensity these events are rendering some of the More rigorous, participatory and socially-sensitive strategies that have served communities well in the past project processes (including learning assessments) are inadequate. For the farmers, mixed cropping served as needed; insurance against total crop failure, and rotational crop-

159 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS ping allowed for the rejuvenation of soils sustaining On the one hand, this shows that the direct needs of production at reasonable levels. Pastoralists migrated to people tend to be neglected. On the other hand, this is better areas in times of drought, traded animals for cere- an example of the importance of effective communica- als and other products from neighboring communities, tion and information dissemination in coping strategies and kept animals with friends and relatives elsewhere as at the household level. Such a strategy should be suc- a form of insurance. cessful and bring short-term benefits.

With the rapid changes in climate in the recent past, Another example is the use of fast-maturing hybrid some of these strategies are no longer viable. And there maize. This crop is seen as necessary because of the is also evidence of erosion of coping and adaptive strate- unpredictable nature of rainfall, however, it has its own gies as a result of varying land-use changes and socio- challenges. First, farmers are forced to buy new seeds political and cultural stresses (Boko et al. 2007). As a year after year, as performance of hybrids greatly reduc- result, many people have had to cope with extreme es with replanting. Second, hybrid seeds need inputs events as they happen. Indeed some of the strategies like fertilizers that many poor households cannot afford, adopted of late, like sales of animals, which are produc- a problem worsening with increasing energy prices. tive assets among the pastoralists, have further weak- This is one reason why poor farmers rarely achieve the ened their ability to survive such events in future. optimum yields with hybrids. Thirdly, due to their uniform nature, the risk of total crop failure from any single It is therefore necessary that a combination of responses disaster (drought, floods, and pests) is usually high. be put in place to safeguard people from anticipated impacts. Such responses should combine individual/ In a recent paper, Vermuelen et al. (2008) show exam- community level strategies with national and regional/ ples of grassroots initiatives to build climate resilience, international, or so-called political strategies. Political and conclude that this strategies may include responses geared towards limiting further increase of greenhouse gas concentrations by „kind of experience, gained at the grassroots, raising awareness about how individual and collective boosts resilience as no top-down initiative actions contribute to the problem of climate change. can.“ This mitigation strategy could – as part of a worldwide approach – minimize the cost of adaptation in future. Their key messages, based on an analysis in Benin, Without a worldwide mitigation strategy, limits to adap- Kenya, and Malawi, are that tation could be easily reached in parts of Africa. For communities dependent on natural resources, However, where response strategies are being designed, adaptation involves a mix of technical solutions (such it is important that they address those most vulnerable as different crops or planting patterns) and institutional to climate change. For example, Hellmuth et al. (2007, solutions (such as new means of sharing information); 44) conclude that the early warning system in Ethiopia Local adaptations include responses to specific „could play a much more useful role if it could trends (such as fishing with finer-meshed nets), but also also reach farmers and pastoralists more direct- building of capacity and resilience – say through savings ly, with timely advice on specific problems as clubs and diversified agriculture – to cope with future well as general information. This implies tailor- uncertainties; ing climate information to specific local needs, and would require greater involvement of agri- Supporting local initiatives and institutions may be cultural sector specialists than is currently the the most effective way to support climate change adap- case.“ tation.

160 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Table 27: Suggestions to improve responding to climate change

Improve communication Reinforcing the scientific capacities of African organisations working in fields linked to between reaserchers, CC and establishing functional interfaces between those structures, political decision- people and poltical makers and local communities. decision makers It is also important to think about the best channels of communication to use; more data and decision-making tools are also needed to influence development strategies and policy. Creating a sub regional framework for consultation involving the different actors to discuss and exchange on issues and gains in terms of CC in the sub region and reducing the dispersion of financial resources, efforts and partners. Developing means of communication (bulletins in a simplified form accessible to decision-makers and the people, rural radios, brochures to disseminate information on technologies). Regular seminars or information, training or capacity-building workshops for the different actors but also for journalists. To improve integration Involving local elected representatives and developing appropriate communication tools. of CC by political Raising awareness through flyers on CC issues and involving decision-makers in national, decision-makers continental and international events on CC; the issue of using and translating scientific information into a suitable language for decision-makers is crucial. It is also necessary to prove the interest of adaptation, for instance by indicating the cost of doing nothing and through advocacy addressed to decision-makers so that they take account of CC in the design and implementation of development programs and projects; Developing documents for decision-makers to support them in their decision-making and organizing a series of information and communication events to provide them with all of the information they need to understand the advantages and disadvantages of implementing CC adaptation activities. Avoiding compartmentalization of services and promoting better visibility for institutions working on CC in relation to aid organisations. Passing on two messages to the decision- makers: CC is not tomorrow, it is now; adaptation to CC is not just an environmental issue, it is necessary to avoid compromising development and poverty reduction efforts. Also communicating with the technical advisors of political decision-makers.

Source: compiled from Niang 2007

This experience underlines the fact that starting where Improving knowledge about CC and its impacts. the most vulnerable are is not only right for principal Uncertainties give the impression that there is no emer- and procedural reasons, but can actually deliver ad- gency, and envisaging integrated research and devel- aptation and climate resilience by building on local opment (natural resources, agriculture, environment, strengths. Niang has identified, based on an assessment health); in West and Central Africa, important proposals to improve adaptation of vulnerable people (Niang 2007): Adopting genuine bottom-up approaches with full involvement of the people, and encouraging the in- Information, awareness and education for local peo- volvement of NGOs that are in more contact with the ple on CC issues (causes and effects); people;

161 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Promoting the self-adaptive capacities of local peo- 7.4 Advocacy and policy ple, supporting good adaptation practices at the local recommendations level; Food insecurity results from many causes, ranging Involving and coaching the people in seeking antici- from poor production to inappropriate policies that pative and curative measures to adapt to CC; may hinder access to markets. For the majority of poor subsistence crop farmers and livestock keepers, climate Providing adequate funding for the implementation plays an important role in determining whether they se- of projects to reduce the impact of CC; cure food or not. Climate change will greatly affect their security status unless appropriate measures are put in Generally speaking, fighting against poverty contrib- place to facilitate their adaptation. Recognizing that the utes to reduce the vulnerability of vulnerable popula- needs for adaptation will likely exceed their ability in tions. terms of knowledge and resources, it is important that a combination of approaches both technical and political 7.3.2 Political and institutional capacity are used to ensure that the potential negative impacts are minimized, especially with regard to their assets and Until recently, climate change adaptation has hardly production systems. played a role in African politics. An analysis undertaken in 2007 on existing Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers Also, it has to be recognized that showed that both adaptation and climate change were hardly mentioned (Harmeling, Burck and Bals 2007). „the causes, impacts and legacies of various strategies – including liberalization policies, However, at that time the available PRSPs were quite decades of structural adjustment programs old, and the picture is changing. Adaptation has gained (SAP) and market conditions – cannot be ig- a lot of policy profile in the last two years, as can be nored in discussions on poverty alleviation seen for example in the Addis Abeba Declaration on and adaptation to stresses, including climate Climate Change and Development in Africa, adopted change“ (Boko et al 2007, 464). by the African Union in 2007 (AU 2007), or the Joint Africa-EU Strategy (Africa-EU 2007). The focus should be on preventing the impacts as much as possible, rather than reacting to what has happened. As shown, the NAPA process has helped governments Hence we suggest the following: to understand the challenge of adaptation, although it is only a first step. 1. Awareness creation at all levels as a first step in sen- sitizing the global community on need to tackle climate The institutional capacity, including that of political change. institutions, is a key issue to develop comprehensive adaptation strategies. Based on an assessment of the in- 2. The need to promote mitigation activities in devel- stitutional framework in relation to climate change in oping countries, and recognizing that the best way to West and Central Africa, a number of suggestions for adapt in the future is to minimize the impacts. further action to improve response capacities have been developed. 3. For poor countries, adaptation must start, and be strengthened as much as possible, to avoid loss of assets All the aspects mentioned here could be developed in and means of livelihood. Developed countries should a way that specifically addresses the links between cli- recognize source limitations and help poor countries in mate change and food security. this process.

162 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS 4. Reforming the WTO terms of engagement to ensure it is fair to poor developing countries as a way of promoting equity and self sufficiency in food systems.

5. There is a need for coordination of efforts at the different levels (local, national, international) to ensure that limited resources are used optimally.

163 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS 8 Research results for Asia28 in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones by the 2050s. This development is supposed to occur as a result of increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing in the Asia, the most populous continent with almost 4 billion Bay of Bengal, which will cause heavier precipitation people, 38.5 percent of which live within 100 km of the in the surrounding coastal regions of South Asia dur- coast and house 70 percent of the world‘s poor, is facing both the southwest and northeast monsoon seasons. ing changing climate trends, increasing variability, and Furthermore, a general warming of 2 to 4°C in Sea extreme events. Surface Temperature (SST) is projected to increase tropical cyclone intensities by 10 to 20 percent in East Asia, South-East Asia, and South Asia (Knutson and Tuleya 8.1 Effects of climate change on food 2004). Table 28 gives an overview of projected impacts production, agriculture and water of climate change in Asia. availability 8.1.2 Effects on food production, agriculture, 8.1.1 Changes in climatic conditions water, forests, fish, and livestock

An increasing trend in surface air temperature has been Production of rice, the staple food of most of the im- observed during recent decades ranging between less poverished in Asia, is the key concern, as the continent than 1°C to 3°C per century. Moreover, 2.0 to 4.5ºC consumes 90 percent of the world‘s rice. Warming, net global average surface warming is expected by the along with decreasing precipitation, have been reported end of the present century (2090-2099), and all of Asia to increase water shortages, particularly in parts of Asia is very likely to warm during this period (Christensen et where water resources are already under stress from al. 2007). Increases in the amount of precipitation are growing water demands and inefficiencies in water use very likely in high-latitudes, while decreases are likely (Ma and Fu 2003; Manton et al. 2001). The production in most subtropical land regions, continuing observed of rice, maize, and wheat has been reported to decline patterns in recent trends (Christensen et al. 2007). in many parts of Asia during the past few decades due to warming-induced water stress, increasing frequency of Glaciers in Central Asia, Western Mongolia, North-West El Niño, and reduction in number of rainy days (Tao et China, and the Tibetan Plateau are reportedly melting al. 2004). Even an apparently water-rich country such faster in recent years than ever before (Pu et al. 2004). as Bangladesh will face increasing risks of phenological Consequently, glacial runoff and the frequency of gla- drought due to increased aridity and subsequent mois- cial lake outbursts causing mudflows and avalanches ture stress (Ahmed and Alam 1999). have increased (Bhadra 2002; Rai 2005). Changes have also been observed in extreme climate events like fre- Recent studies suggest a 2 to 5 percent decrease in yield quent occurrences of more intense rainfall, increasing potential of wheat and maize for a temperature rise of frequency and intensity of flooding, drought, and tropi- 0.5 to 1.5°C in India (Aggarwal 2003). In Bangladesh, cal cyclones. Regions of Asia, such as South Asia, East potential yield of the major pre-monsoon rice crop Asia, and South-East Asia, will experience an increase would be reduced by as much as 32 percent, assum- in the occurrence of extreme weather events (Cruz ing a 4°C rise in temperature associated with a 60 per- et al. 2007). Based on regional HadRM2 simulations, cent increase in moisture stress. The goods and services Unnikrishnan et al. (2006) expect an increasing trend from coastal ecosystems have been substantially inter-

28 Based on a contribution by Ferdausur Rahman, Mizanur Rahman Bijoy, Nusrat Habib (all Network on Climate Change, Bangladesh) and Umme Kulsum (Climate Change Focal Point, Prodipan).

164 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Table 28: Projected impacts of climate change in Asia

Sector Projected impacts Agriculture/ Increased risk of hunger in South Asia due to 30% decline in cereal yields (266 million Asians may Forestry face hunger by 2080).

Increase in agricultural water demand by 6 to 10% or more for every 1°C rise in temperatur.

Decline in net productivity of grasslands and milk yield. Water Decline in water availability from ~1,820 m³/yr to ~1,140 m³/yr in India by 2050; may adversely affect >1 billion people.

Decline in annual flow of Mekong river by 16 to 24% by 2050.

Disappearance of Tibetan Plateau glaciers of <4 km length with 3°C rise.

Shrinkage of area of glaciers by 80% over Tibetan plateau from 500,000 km² in 1995 to 100,000 km² by the 2030s.

Deterioration of water quality due to salt water intrusion.

Decline in fish larvae abundance in coastal waters. Health Exacerbation of cholera in South Asia due to increase in water temperature.

Increased endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhea across Asia due to floods and droughts.

Increase in infectious diseases for livestock. Coastal/Marine Loss of 2500 km² mangroves in Asia with 1 meter sea-level rise. ecosystems Flooding of Red (5,000 km²) & Mekong (15 to 20,000 km²) River deltas.

About 2.6 to 18.8 million people along the coasts of Southeast Asia may be at risk of flood by 2100.

Large scale inundation and recession of flat sandy beaches affecting tourism.

Loss of ~30% of Asia’s coral reefs in next 30 years.

Source: IGES 2008, 59 (based on IPCC)

rupted/declined across Asia due to major changes in Asia (India, China, and Mongolia) due to constraints in the coastal zone from a combination of extreme climate pasture availability. and non-climate events (Li et al. 2004a). The abundance of fish populations in Asian waters is threatened Easterling et al. (2007) report that with future changes in ocean currents, sea-level, sea- water temperature, salinity, wind speed and direction, „(...) increases in frequency of climate extremes strength of upwelling, the mixing layer thickness and may lower crop yields beyond the impacts of predator response to climate change (Zhang and Guo mean climate change.“ 2004). Livestock and poultry development is important to meet the increasing demand of meat and animal In Bangladesh, USD 2.8 billion, or about 4 percent of products for Asian people. However, the expansion of GDP, are the estimated combined losses from two dev- livestock numbers has been limited in most regions of astating floods, a super cyclone ‚SIDR‘, and a tidal wave

165 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Table 29: Hotspots in Asia

Hotspots in Asia Causes of insecurity Central Asia Global warming and glacier melts could affect crop and water distribution issues in a region that is already facing civil conflicts in countries like Tajikistan and conflicts over water and energy resources. China Climate change will intensify the existing environmental stress (e.g. air and water pollution, soil degradation) due to the increase in heat waves and droughts, which will worsen desertification and water scarcity in some parts of the country. Sea-level rise and tropical cyclones will threaten the economically significant and populous east coast. The government’s steering capacities could be overwhelmed by the rapid pace of modernization, environmental and social crises, and the impacts of climate change. India, Pakistan The impacts of climate change will be especially severe in this region; glacial retreat in the and Bangladesh Himalayas will cause increased floods and soil erosion, jeopardize the water supply for millions of people, and changes to the annual monsoon will affect agriculture for some decades. Sea-level rise and more intense or frequent cyclones and storms will threaten human settlements around the populous Bay of Bengal. These dynamics will increase the social crisis potential in a region which is already characterized by cross-border conflicts (India/Pakistan) and unstable governments (Bangladesh/Pakistan).

Source: WBGU 2008

that hit the country all within span of few months at the in Asia are likely to be lost with 1 meter of sea-level first half of 2008. The disasters heavily disrupted agri- rise. Approximately 1,000 km2 of cultivated land and culture by affecting crops, livestock, poultry, and fish sea product culturing area in Bangladesh is likely to farms (ADB 2008). become salt marsh (Cruz et al. 2007). In the arid and semi-arid regions of Asia, irrigation demand is estimated 8.1.3 Hot spots and countries at risk to increase by at least 10 percent for an increase in temperature of 1°C (Fischer et al. 2002; Liu 2002). The cur- WBGU (2008) identified the regions and areas as rent melting trends of Himalayan glaciers (e.g. Gangotri hotspots due to their special ecological, demographic, glacier) are one of the tipping elements. It is projected or socio-economic features; climate change will present that the Ganga, Indus, Brahmaputra, and other rivers particularly major challenges for these places in the that criss-cross the northern Indian plain could likely next decades Bangladesh (3), Vietnam (4), and India (7) turn into seasonal rivers in the near future as a conse- are three of the 10 most affected countries by extreme quence of climate change. This fact might likely affect weather, following only countries in Africa, in the dec- economies in the region (Cruz et al. 2007). adal Climate Risk Index (CRI) for 1997-2006 (Harmeling 2007). In the future, food scarcity projections for South In total, 37 countries are facing food crises and require and South-East Asia are highly vulnerable with high external assistance; 10 of these countries are in Asia confidence, while East Asia is highly vulnerable with (FAO 2008a). Those countries lack the ability to deal a very high degree of confidence (Cruz et al. 2007). with critical problems of food security due to exception- The densely populated mega deltas of Asia, which are al shortfalls in food production (Iraq), widespread lack more apparent in megacities (e.g. Bangkok, Shanghai, of access (Afghanistan & Korea DPR), or severe localized Tianjin), are vulnerable to both climate change and sea- food insecurity (Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, Nepal, level rise (Cruz et al. 2007). 2,500 km2 of mangroves Sri Lanka, Timore-Leste & Viet Nam). Except in conflict-

166 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Vulnerable Zones/ Hotspots in Bangladesh guidelines agreed on under the UNFCCC specifically underline the objective to identify and address the most The Government of Bangladesh has identified cli- urgent adaptation needs and identify priority projects. In mate change hotspots using the vulnerability zone principle, these should be developed in a participatory of the BCAS/RA/Approtech (1994) study in it‘s process (UNFCCC 2001). However, the guidelines are National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) submit- much less concrete than, for example, the procedural ted to UNFCCC in 2005 (GOB 2005). As the impacts elements from the FAO voluntary guidelines introduced of climate change are likely to be felt almost across above. Thus, it is not so easy to judge how far NAPA the entire country, the whole country, except the processes have been sufficiently participatory. Chittagong Hill Tracts, is segregated into nine vulnerable zones depending on the agro-ecological zones Nevertheless, these NAPAs serve as the best and most and water planning zones defined by the BCAS/RA/ recent starting point when looking at adaptation priori- Approtech (1994) study, as shown here in Table 30. ties. They also provide reference when assessing likely Several studies indicate that the coastal zone vulner- costs of adaptation, although it has to be repeated that ability would be acute due to the combined effects of they are only about the most urgent adaptation needs. climate change, sea-level rise, subsidence, changes These show that activities linked to food production and of upstream river discharge, and cyclone and coastal water supply feature prominently in this selective. embankments (BCAS/RA/Approtech 1994 and WB 2000). The coastal people of Bangladesh are under se- While NAPAs have been a valuable exercise for deter- vere threat to become climate refugees due to extreme mining national priorities in adaptation, they are not events and other climate-induced losses of production. supposed to be the tool to systematically integrate adap- Suitable areas for Aman rice would decrease signifi- tation into all development policies and planning proc- cantly due to sea-level rise along the southwestern re- esses. However, it is remarkable that Bangladesh is one gion of Bangladesh (CEGIS 2006). of few countries that have explicitly included capacity building for mainstreaming in its NAPA.

prone Afghanistan, Iraq, and Sri Lanka, natural catastro- 8.2.2 Barriers to adaptation phes have played the most decisive role in undermining food security and have contributed to generating the There are a number of barriers which need to be re- recent high global cereals price, which has in turn led moved to allow for a better and faster increase of adap- to widespread increases in domestic food prices of the tive capacity. Asian LFDC‘s (FAO 2008a). The prevailing level of poverty can be judged as the largest barrier to developing the capacity to cope and adapt. 8.2 Adaptation needs The poor usually have a very low adaptive capacity due to their limited access to information, technology, and 8.2.1 Adaptation priorities other capital assets which make them highly vulnerable to climate change (Cruz et al. 2007). Adaptive capacity Reflecting the knowledge of projected impacts of cli- in countries where there is a high incidence of poverty mate change on different sectors would allow the iden- will likely remain limited. tification of likely priority actions on adaptation from a top-down perspective. Initiated and supported by the Furthermore, Cruz et al. (2007, 492) conclude that UNFCCC process, LDCs in Asia and elsewhere have started to or have already finished elaborating on their „insufficient information and knowledge on National Adaptation Programs of Action (NAPAs). The the impacts of climate change and responses

167 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Table 30: Critical vulnerable areas/hotspots with most impacted sectors in Bangladesh

Sln Climate and related elements Critical vulnerable areas Most impacted sectors 1 Temperature rise and drought • North-West (NW) • Agriculture (crop, livestock, fisheries • Water • Energy • Health 2 Sea-level rise and salinity • Coastal area (SW, SC and SE) • Agriculture (crop, fisheries, livestock) intrusion • The Sundarbans (SB) and • Water (water logging, drinking water, urban) • Island • Human settlement • Energy • Health 3 Floods • Central region (CC) • Agriculture (crop, fisheries, livestock) • North-East region (NE) • Water (urban, industry) • Charland • Infrastructure • Human settlement • Health • Energy 4 Cyclone and storm surge • Coastal and • Marine fishing • Marine zone • Infrastructure • Human settlement • Life and property 5 Drainage congestion • Coastal area (SW, SC & SE) • Water (Navigation) • South-West (SW) • Agriculture (crop) • Urban

Source: after GoB 2005

of natural systems to climate change will likely points could be identified in order to integrate long-term continue to hinder effective adaptation particu- climate change into, for example, food security and wa- larly in Asia“. ter policies, progress on mainstreaming in Asia has been limited. Among the key barriers identified are This is also true regarding the challenge of mainstreaming adaptation in planning and policy processes on dif- „information (communication and coordina- ferent levels. A recent consultation process undertaken tion) barriers, institutional barriers, stakeholder by the Institute for Global Environment Studies (IGES, participation-related barriers and the lack of Japan) addressed the issue of mainstreaming adaptation. suitable incentives and resources“ (IGES 2008, There seems to be common recognition that systemati- 64). cally integrating climate change into affected fields of development policy and planning is becoming increasingly While some of these barriers, like the lack of clarity in important. And although many sectoral and other entry adaptation policy guidance and the lack of incentives

168 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Table 31: Priority activities of adaptation and their costs as identified in NAPAs from selected Asian LDCs

Country Adaptation measure Cost (million USD) Bangladesh Construction of flood shelter, and information and assistance centre to cope 5.00 with enhanced recurrent floods in major floodplains Enhancing resilience of urban infrastructure and industries to impacts of 2.00 climate change Promoting adaptation to coastal crop agriculture to combat increased salinity 6.50 Adaptation to fisheries in areas prone to enhanced flooding in North East and 4.50 Central Region through adaptive and diversified fish culture practices Bhutan Landslide management and flood prevention 0.89 Weather forecasting system to serve farmers and agriculture 0.42 Flood protection of downstream industrial & agricultural area 0.45 Rainwater harvesting 0.90 Cambodia Rehabilitation of upper Mekong and provincial waterways to reduce risks 30.00 caused by floods, improve fishery resources, supply sufficient water for irrigation and domestic uses Vegetation planning for flood and windstorm protection 4.00 Development and improvement of community irrigation systems 45.00 Community mangrove restoration and sustainable use of resources 1.00

Source: IGES 2008, 71

and adequate resources, are applicable to the entire re- stances. Overcoming institutional barriers is very impor- gion, yet others, like inadequate institutional structures, tant in achieving this goal. Also, the conclusions from exist in specific countries or sub-regions (IGES 2008). the IGES consultation are useful in this regard (IGES The lack of awareness among sectoral policymakers 2008, 67): about adverse economic impacts of climate change at the local level seems to be one of the key bottlenecks. (a) Managing adaptation plans by a ministry or agency with a high level of leverage so that institutional link- Another point, which verifies that climate change chal- ages and coordination can be fostered; lenges the way of conventional policy-making, is that both national planners and development assistance (b) Encouraging the private sector to mainstream adap- agencies were judged to be over-reliant on structural tation concerns in various operations; and technological options. Often, these options are inflexible and insensitive to the local contexts; while at (c) Ensuring a coherent approach to mainstreaming the same time being „technologically and financially de- through regular and broader engagement of stakehold- manding“ (IGES 2008, 64). ers at various levels;

Governments and their institutions have to ensure (d) Building „boundary institutions“ which can help to food security as well as advance the understanding and bring information on implications of climate change for knowledge of adaptation within their national circum- sectoral planning and decision making.

169 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS In this particular context, suggestions for the catalytic 8.3.2 Marginalization, consumption and hunger role of the UNFCCC process were also made. Its primary roles in fostering mainstreaming could be to provide Poor, marginalized people, who are most vulnerable to (a) guidance to development agencies to preferentially the impact of climate change, will be further margin- support mainstreaming, (b) guidance to policymakers alized through all forms of discrimination induced by on inter-agency coordination and mainstreaming at na- climate change: i.e. geographic, social, production spe- tional level, and (c) capacity building on mainstreaming cific, political, and gender processes. options in critical sectors. Children in the developing world bear the brunt of the health impact of climate change through the increased 8.3 Responses and capacity incidence of diseases such as diarrhea, malaria, and respiratory infections. As of International Center for 8.3.1 Development, poverty, and human rights Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (ICDDR, B), implications climate change and sea-level rise in Bangladesh is likely to have important effects on the prevalence of infectious Bangladesh shows significant success in achieving some diseases in addition to heat stress due to rising tempera- of the midline targets of the MDGs by the year 2005. ture. The risk of malaria is still limited to over 10 million The number of poor people living below the poverty ‚minority‘ populations in the Chittagong Hill Tracts and line (USD 1 per day) was reduced from 59 percent to similar areas. It is possible that global warming would 40 percent, and the proportion of people in extreme produce more rapid replication of the dengue virus. poverty was reduced from 28 percent to 19.5 percent. This, in turn, is expected to favor visceral leishmaniasis This is a good indication of the right path for the first (VL) vectors, and may result in increasing cases of VL goal of eradicating extreme poverty. But MDGs are not in Bangladesh. Cholera and other diarrheal diseases are a complete human development agenda; this achieve- an obvious risk in Bangladesh following the increased ment can be hampered by climate change that is already amount of extreme events (ICDDR,B 2007). impacting the lives of the poor. These health impacts of climate change have a dis- Enhanced adaptation is one necessary requirement for cernible implication on malnutrition and hunger. In supporting progress toward the 2015 targets. In the Bangladesh, a large group of the total population con- world beyond 2015, climate change will act as a brake sumes less than 1805 kcal; the minimum requirement on human development – holding back or even revers- needed is 2110 kcal. The trend shifts downward nation- ing human progress until mitigation starts to take effect ally and rurally. However, it is rising upward in urban (UNDP 2007). areas excluding the year 2005. At the same time, we see rises in the number of urban poor due to rural-urban The economic and social impacts of climate change will migration, whereas the number of the very poor remain result in both shortages of and increased inaccessibility huge at 27 million nationally. of resources (i.e. fresh water, staple food). Above all, frequent and intensified storm and flood disasters have 8.3.3 Most vulnerable groups a positive correlation with intensification of conflict, violent unrest, and/or political crises. Several studies Easterling et al. (2007) infers with high confidence concluded that the severe floods and storms followed by that smallholder and subsistence farmers, pastoralists, severe shortages of food and insufficient aid measures in and artisanal fisher folk will suffer complex, localized 1970, 1974, and 1988 were some factors in the domes- impacts from climate change. Climate change may af- tic political crisis in Bangladesh (then East Pakistan) and fect the poor through changes or depletion of common deteriorating human security (WBGU et al. 2008). property resources, such as fisheries, rangelands, or for-

170 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS ests on which they depend for their livelihoods (DFID of climate change. Reduced precipitation and a rise in 2004). A number of studies found negative effects from temperature are estimated to reduce pasture productiv- rising temperature on rice-wheat systems across Asia; ity in the Mongolian steppe by about 10 to 30 percent this area is home to the world‘s majority (87 %) of small (Tserendash et al. 2005). It is also projected that the farmers29 (Aggarwal et al. 2000; Lal et al. 1998). vegetation zone in the Tibetan Plateau could move to higher altitudes, and climate change may cause a shift Increased plant disease and pest outbreaks due to cli- of the boundary of the farming pastoral lands (Cruz et mate change will likely be directly felt by the rural poor. al. 2007). They are often closely linked directly to food production and have low capacity for food purchases (Alig et In recent years, the poor have been moved more quick- al. 2004 and Cruz et al. 2007). Competition for land ly than before to urban centers and poverty is becoming and other resources, for example between food and bio- more urban. This urban poor are also negatively affect- fuel production, may coincide with the loss of farmer ed by an increase in food prices. One important reason income. For instance, in the Philippines, expanded in Bangladesh was that natural disasters have caused sugarcane production meant that tenant farmers lost ac- shortfalls in food production (Cruz et al. 2007). Also, cess to land for maize production (Rinot and Hill 2007). the poor will have to endure increasing risks from floods O‘Brien et al. (2004) also reveals that small farmers in and other climate-related hazards (Adger 2003). As the India will have to face the brunt of being ‚doubly ex- impacts of climate change are unequally distributed over posed‘ by both climate change and globalization. space and time and disproportionately affect the poor it is likely to cause additional inequity (Stern 2006). An analysis of poverty in small-scale fisheries has identified greater vulnerability to external shocks and trends Climate change also has a gender dimension. The ma- including climate change, variation, and extreme events, jority of women working in the informal sectors are than to asset or income poverty (Allison et al. 2005). A frequently worst hit by climate change-related disasters reduction of primary production in the tropical oceans is and other shocks. Women and children are 14 times predicted, because of the changes in oceanic circulation more likely to die than men during disasters, and that in a warmer atmosphere (Cruz et al. 2007). makes them more vulnerable to cope with unexpected events and disasters or to adapt to change (Brody et al. The timing and amount of precipitation in the plains 2008; Araujo/Quesada-Aguilar 2007) could also affect the migration of fish species from rivers to floodplains for progeny, dispersion, and growth. As a Traditional food sources may become more volatile and result, the fishing communities that depend on inland meager due to climate change, and will thus consistent- fisheries are likely to be particularly vulnerable to cli- ly affect women. Women and young girls largely respon- mate change (Muir and Allison 2007). The huge major- sible for water collection, especially among poor people, ity of the world’s fisherfolk are found in Asia. China, are more sensitive to the changes in seasons and cli- Indonesia, India and Vietnam are the four countries with matic conditions that affect accessibility and quantity of the largest number of fisher folk (Allison et al. 2005). drinking water. These changes make its collection even more time-consuming (Brody et al. 2008). Saline water In South Asia, large declines in the natural assets of infiltration also could affect livelihoods from fishing, an- grasslands and savannas are likely to be a consequence other sector in which women are frequently involved.

29 Land areas below 10 m elevation from sea-level (above mean high water). China alone occupies about 48 percent of world’s 404 million small farms (less than 2 hectares), while India is home to about 23 percent, Indonesia 4.2, Bangladesh 4, and Viet Nam about 2.4 percent ( Nagayets 2005).

171 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS Indigenous people‘s dependency on natural resources Framework for climate resilient development, and it is for their livelihoods and homes puts them on the front- currently working on the Climate Change Action Plan line to deal with climate change. Often, these people are for Bangladesh (Cell 2008). This process will help the living on the most marginal natural areas. A recent study nation to shift their policy activities towards coherence (Gunter et al. 2007) suggests that the tribal people of and away from ad hoc decision making. Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) of Bangladesh seem to be highly vulnerable to a climate change-induced increase A number of climate change-related projects (focus- in drought, floods, land slides, and cyclones. The area ing on mainstreaming and capacity building) are be- is expected to suffer a number unusual drought during ing implemented by both governmental and non-gov- the Rabi and Pre-Kharif season (typically November to ernmental organizations with financial support from February) by 2030. donor agencies. The remarkable ongoing projects are (a) Comprehensive Disaster Management Program According to Cruz et al. (2007, 490), (CDMP), (b) Poverty and Climate Change, and (c) Land use Change, Food Security, Water, and Biomass Energy „the ability of local populations to adapt their in the context of Climate Change, etc. (Rahman et al. production systems to cope with climate 2007). In 2003, a Climate Change Cell was also estab- change will vary across Asia and will be largely lished as a component of CDMP in order to develop a influenced by the way government institutions connection with the Ministry of Environment & Forest and policies mediate the supply of, and access (MoEF). The MoEF is the focal point of UNFCCC within to, food and related resources. The adaptive government of Bangladesh (Rahman et al. 2007). capacity of poor subsistence farming/herding communities is commonly low in many devel- Research and studies oping countries of Asia. One of the important and effective measures to enhance their adap- A number of studies have been performed throughout tive capacity is through education and the pro- the last decade on the impacts, vulnerability, and adap- vision of easy access to climate change-related tation assessment for Bangladesh to climate change and information.“ SLR. Most of the studies have assessed impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation to climate change and SLR by sec- 8.3.4 National/Government response tors and geographic areas such as water, coastal zone, (Bangladesh) agriculture, infrastructure, forestry, and health (Rahman et al. 2007). These studies can be separated into three Responding to climate change parts: (1) About 20 studies have analyzed vulnerabilities resulting from climate change-induced disasters, (2) Since the Rio Earth Summit in 1992, climate change about 10 studies have looked at the vulnerabilities re- has become more recognized in policy discourse in lated to socio-economic criteria, and (3) about 20 stud- Bangladesh; but a comprehensive national policy on cli- ies have examined a diversity of climate change-induced mate change is yet to be formulated. The Government vulnerabilities (Gunter et al. 2007). of Bangladesh (GoB) has participated in all the UNFCCC conferences and submitted the Initial National Response on food security Communication (INC) in 2002 (Agrawala et al. 2003). The most significant achievement of Bangladesh in Constitutionally, the fundamental duty of the state is terms of adaptation is to prepare the National Adaptation to secure its citizens the provision of basic necessities Program of Action (NAPA) in 2005, which identified of food (article 15.a of the constitution of Bangladesh). 15 priority projects in different vulnerable areas (GoB But as per Government‘s Allocation of Business, it is the 2005). Recently, the government has prepared a Country duty of the Ministry of Food and Disaster Management

172 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS (MoFDM) to establish a dependable food security sys- Vulnerability to Climate Change (RVCC) was the first tem for the nation. The National Food Policy (2006) project (2003 to 2006) of its kind on Community-Based was developed in light of the present Poverty Reduction Adaptation (CBA) to climate change. Strategy Plan (PRSP)30, and with the objective‚ to ensure a dependable food security system for all people The project was implemented by CARE Bangladesh of the country at all times’, matching the broader per- in association with 17 partner organizations in the spective of food security as adopted in the World Food Southwestern coastal region of Bangladesh. The project Summit of 1996. The policy also considers the GATT focused on diversification of livelihood options in vul- Uruguay Round Agreement (1994) and the Millennium nerable communities, and generated valuable local Development Goals (2000) in setting a dozen of strate- knowledge in how to address climate change (and ad- gies under three broader objectives (GoB 2006). Several aptation) at the community level (Rahman et al. 2007). strategies under objective one (ensure adequate and sta- Awareness, campaigning, and adaptation facilitation has ble supply of safe and nutritious food) and objective two continued since 2005 in coastal districts by two RVCC (enhance purchasing power of the people for increased Partners, PRODIPAN and NABOLOK, through Network food accessibility) could be incorporated into the climate of Climate Change in Bangladesh (NCC, B). change adaptation process, although the food policy has failed so far to find climate change as a risk for ensuring At present, a number of projects, such as ‚Increase food security. The policy may favor private food distribu- Resilience of Disaster Prone Communities in Gaibandha‘ tion systems over public distribution systems. by Practical Action, ‚Building Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change for Selected Drought and Flood Prone At present, 27 Social Safety Net programs are being run Areas of Bangladesh‘ by BCAS, ‚Livelihood Adaptation by the government (GoB and SW 2007). The most im- to Climate Change (LACC)‘ – jointly implemented by portant safety nets programs are broadly divided into the FAO and the Department of Agriculture Extension two categories (provide food or cash transfer), and cover (DAE), under Climate Change Cell, Department of only about 4 to 5 million people (WB 2006). The gov- Environment (Rahman et al. 2007) – are under way. ernment spends less than 1 percent of the GDP and Several networks and NGOs are also implement- about 4.4 percent of public expenditure in these social ing various projects on advocacy, research, and CBA. safety-net programs (GoB and SW 2007). The World Four CDM projects also have been approved by the Bank assessment (2006) shows that the budgetary sanc- Designated National Authority (DNA) in 2006 (Climate tion for Social Safety Net programs has been declining Change Cell 2008). relative to GDP and public expenditure since the late 1990s. 8.4 Advocacy and policy 8.3.5 Civil society response recommendations

The civil society has played an active role on both the The mainstreaming of climate change into relevant poli- national and global levels in creating pressure for en- cies for the Government of Bangladesh is an urgent thrust vironment and climate concern. Despite the number needed in all development sectors. The Bangladesh gov- of various studies, there was a gap on testing adapta- ernment can play a key role in the Least Developing tion measures for vulnerable communities. Reducing Countries (LDCs) Group within the G77+ China and

30 The present Poverty Reduction Strategy Plan (PRSP), ‘Unlocking the Potential: National Strategy for Accelerated Poverty Reduction’, has been adopted in October 2005, but recently the government decided to continue this PRSP only up to 30 June 2008 and a revised PRSP will take.

173 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS in the UNFCCC negotiations. It should pursue its role Food deficit countries should establish mechanisms, in developing adaptation policies, mobilizing of global either individually or collectively, with neighboring funds for LDC countries and local communities, and countries. They should also create an emergency food establishing better linkages between climate change reserve which may be mobilized in case food is not and development. The policy makers and South Asian available from international sources following a shock. Government negotiators can be offered annual training on Climate Negotiations with leading Bangladeshi and Coastal infrastructure, like dams and cyclone shel- other South Asian partners. Climate change adaptation ters, should be built, with support from highly-emitting is becoming the centre of the post-2012 Kyoto frame- countries, to face the onslaught of extreme events. work, and international partnerships are recommended for poverty reduction. The following steps can be rec- The private sector and civil society should advocate ommended: mitigation process such as using the CDM, energy efficiency, renewable energy, and adaptation activities In the most vulnerable countries, like Bangladesh, such as infrastructure developments and mainstream- policy coherence is necessary to face, adapt to, and fight ing climate change. Common Regional Policies and climate change. Therefore, linking climate change with programs for implementation should make use of the all development sectors and sub-sectors (e.g. land, food, South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation agriculture, trade, energy etc.) under a comprehensive (SAARC). Regional modeling and response strategies in National Climate Change Policy is necessary and recom- relation to food security and climate change can be initi- mended for other vulnerable countries. ated early on. Existing networks of South Asian NGOs and research institutes can be strengthened and put to Effective global mechanisms should be developed to work on regional government initiatives and programs. ensure funds under the UN for climate-coping initiatives Advocacy should be developed to ensure justice in food by poor countries. trade for the LFDCs, and that climate change is incorporated into international trade negotiations. Advocacy for Global food production should be increased by us- the rights of climate refugees beyond country bounda- ing suitable technology and potential agricultural lands ries is an emerging issue under food security constraints in an environment friendly way. and developing nations under climate change. The health impact of climate change has a wide range of The vulnerable people should be empowered and malnutrition implications, and can be another advocacy enabled to adapt to climate change by building resil- issue in a food-impoverished, vulnerable country like ience through investments in social protection, health, Bangladesh. education, and other measures.

The Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs) can 9 Research results for Latin be used to conduct national estimates of the costs of America scaling-up existing programs and identifying priority areas for reducing vulnerability. The effects of climate change on food production, agri- Countries that could experience a potential food culture and water availability in Latin America, the re- deficit under climate change, need effective local poli- spective adaptation needs and policy recommendations cies. Such polices include establishing social safety net are summarized in Chapter 11.7.3. and programs aiming at creation of access to food. Pro- poor agricultural development should be given very high priority.

174 Climate Change I Study 02

ANALYSIS Part IV

The way forward: conclusions

10 Conclusion: elements of a services, taxation and subsidy systems, property rights rights-based strategy and their legal protection etc. often favor local elites. Formal and informal political decision-making structures often work against poor and marginalized women Rights-based strategies have been increasingly discussed and men, particularly in rural areas and in poor urban in several policy areas relating to the right to adequate pockets. These areas are where most of the poor and po- food, water, health, adequate housing etc. since the litically excluded segments of societies are to be found. middle of the 1990s (summarized discussion, Windfuhr For poor women and men, access to health, education, 2001 and IISD 2004). The rights-based approach has productive resources, a functioning legal system, land- gained support as a result of the frustration arising from registration systems, justice and appeals mechanisms the very slow improvements achieved for vulnerable for checking discriminatory laws or their practices etc. groups, particularly in countries with non functioning are often limited. The access to these resources would governments. These governments often hinder the im- constitute effective remedies to react adequately, in any plementation of policies needed to overcome depriva- substantive way, their situations. tion. The incentives provided through traditional development policies often do not work adequately if or In the case of adaptation policies to climate change, when the national policy setting is not supportive. For such forms of discrimination and exclusion should be example, training farmers is a positive measure, but will avoided and not reinforced. A rights-based orienta- only have a long term effect when secure access to tention for adaptation policies can help to overcome such ure rights guarantee farmers the access to productive problems. Adaptation policies will probably be unable resources. to overcome all forms of institutionalized and historic marginalization, but they can avoid aggravating existing Processes of social exclusion, discrimination in access to inequalities. Moreover, if adaptation policies are faultily productive resources, exclusion from decision-making designed, they might not achieve their intended objec- bodies, and the exploitation of vulnerable women and tive – supporting those most affected. Instead, the sup- men are important reasons for the persistence of pov- port will again be directed towards those more power- erty. Inequalities are becoming institutionalized in many ful within the society with far less intense adaptation countries. These disparities are reinforced by political, problems. economic, social, and cultural structures. Systematic discrimination on the basis of gender, class, caste, eth- A rights-based approach describes, therefore, a strategy nicity, and other identities persist and lead to the struc- for increasing government accountability to its own tural exclusion of large groups of women and men from citizens. It helps secure the entitlements people need in developmental processes and benefits. order to use existing chances, or it helps to widen their overall opportunities. A rights-based approach strength- National policies often reflect the interests of sectors ens and complements other strategies in North-South holding the most power. They are seldom oriented to- development cooperation, such as strengthening capaci- wards the interests and needs of vulnerable and mar- ties of local partners and enhancing their capabilities to ginalized men and women. Health, education, social use productive resources or other income-earning op-

175 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS portunities. It stimulates analysis and reflection on the Factors that create or support vulnerability need to be causes of entitlement-failure and allows the more pre- addressed as much as possible, otherwise the adaptation cise description of roles, obligations, and responsibilities policies designed cannot adequately help the people of different actors in the development process. It is a they are supposed to assist. For example, say a family way of reducing the accountability gap that, in many headed by a woman is excluded from locally available countries, works against the poor. credit schemes or agricultural extension services because of gender discrimination. This family will not gain National governance issues are not the only determi- much if the same services are then expanded to deliver nants of poverty and exclusion; international policies credits for adaptation purposes or to deliver knowledge can also exacerbate existing local forms of social exclu- on adaptation techniques. The same household might sion and foster poverty. International trade policies can, still be excluded from these services because of same and often do, directly impact the income poor produc- reasons as before. Adaptation policies should address or ers or consumers derive from their work. be sensitive to such older forms of marginalization.

Policies of multilateral institutions can limit states‘ ca- Climate change and human rights are related in situa- pacities to act in favor of poorer segments of their so- tions where the impact of climate change substantially cieties. Losses by developing countries through trade affects livelihood circumstances. Some potential effects protection, immigration barriers, and increasing debt of climate change on livelihood could be that people burdens amount to many times that of the aid develop- are starving or losing access to productive resources like ing countries receive. Social exclusion is a consequence land or water. Often, governments are not adequately of many economic policies pursued by multilateral insti- supporting people to cope with these changes. In the tutions. Collective frustration about processes of social context of adaptation policies, governments must guar- disintegration is sometimes expressed in religious intol- antee that adaptation policies do not lead to violations erance, spontaneous migratory movements and security of any human rights. Governments have to ensure that issues. These developments can affect whole regions persons or groups affected by climate change are not and put democratization at risk. overlooked and that they have access, without discrimination, to compensation measures offered by the gov- This study has shown that climate change will affect ernment. food security and often marginalized producers and other vulnerable groups. Without a strong international Another dimension of interlinkages existing between mitigation policy, climate change in many parts of the climate change and human rights is that in some coun- world might easily move beyond certain thresholds and tries, where impacts are severe, the effects can exacer- overwhelm the adaptive capabilities. bate internal conflict. Such conflicts include struggles over land use or access to scarce resources between The situation of marginalized and vulnerable groups pastoralists and farmers, or problems between large might be aggravated, and they may need particular at- farms that might overuse scarce water resources and tention because of their low coping capacities. New vul- the surrounding smallholder farmers. Groups that start nerable persons or groups might develop as a result of demanding their rights might be politically prosecuted climate change. Developing a rights-based strategy for or threatened. Such conflicts might lead, therefore, to adaptation policies in national and international policies violations of civil and political rights. Adaptation poli- can therefore be an effective tool to concentrate and cies need to be able to deal with conflicting situations orient such measures and policies towards the people and conflicts of interests. Armed conflicts might also most in need. This study has also shown that adaptation become sources or contributions to substantive clashes policies need to take into consideration existing forms of over access to natural resources. The Darfur conflict is marginalization when developing adaptation policies. often seen as a conflict driven, at least partially, by the

176 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS overall scarcity of access to natural resources across the people according to the law and for a comprehensive un- entire region. A rights-based approach to adaptation pol- derstanding of citizenship. These complaint procedures icies can be helpful in discussing potential solutions for are normally accessible at the national level, but also ex- groups competing for the same resource base. Such ac- ist at the international level. There are existing regional cess conflicts need to be overcome by focusing attention human rights instruments. For example systems are on the demands of the different groups involved. available in Europe, in the Inter-American Human Right System, and in Africa. And there are also international Elements of a rights-based strategy instruments for most of the core human right treaties, which can be used when the state is responsible for a This study has focused on the impact of climate change violation, has ratified the specific optional protocols and on the enjoyment of human rights related to food secu- all other criteria for adminissibility are met. rity, particularly the right to adequate food, water, and health. What are the core elements of a rights-based 3. A rights-based framework better describes govern- strategy to adaptation policies that can be drawn from ment obligations and develops criteria for designing the results? and evaluating policy processes. A human rights-based framework requires governments to follow standards 1. A human rights-based approach has to cover both at all different levels of activities. For most of the ESC- sets of human rights: civil and political (CP-rights) and rights, such a framework is laid out in the General economic, social, and cultural rights (ESC-rights). While Comments, which the Committee on ESC-rights has de- the ESC-rights are important for poverty-related prob- veloped within the course of the last years. The General lems, CP-rights are relevant for the overall approach. Comments No. 12-15 require governments to develop For example, CP-rights guarantee that each person is a national strategy for the implementation of each of the treated in a way acceptable to human rights standards respective rights. The General Comment No. 12 on the for participation during political trials. The right to be right to adequate food was adopted at the 20th session informed, freedom of expression, the right to organize, of the CESCR in 1999, No. 13 on the right to educa- transparency etc. are all important civil and political tion at the 21 session in 1999, No. 14 on the right to rights. Adaptation policies need to follow these proce- the highest attainable standard of health at the 22nd dural requirements. Every person has the right to be session in 2000. The three comment on specific rights heard and to participate in the development of adapta- of the covenant follow the same structure in describ- tion policy measures that might be decisive for his or ing state obligations and government action (UN 2001) her future. In November 2002 the CESCR adopted additionally a General Comment No. 15 on the right to water that fol- 2. Human rights create entitlements of persons vis-à- low the same structure (see Windfuhr 2003). vis their government. These entitlements can be legally claimed, and are a good tool to use in holding govern- (A) The strategies shall start with an analysis and iden- ments accountable. Complaint procedures need to be tification of the victims of violations together with an accessible for everyone. They can materialize in differ- assessment of the causes of the situation. ent formats and should cover different legal qualities, from arbitration procedures to quasi judicial and judi- (B) Based on that, the governments shall check and cial procedures. Human rights institutions, ombudsman improve their national legislative framework, modify systems, and judicial procedures must be open to com- or amend laws, and develop legislation where appropri- plaints from everybody without discrimination. Special ate. provisions for legal aid should be provided to effectively guarantee access to justice for extremely poor people. (C) Additionally, the governments should design an These are core conditions for the equal treatment of all adequate policy framework for the implementation of

177 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS each right. The implementation should be guided by the 4. It is important to note that not all persons suffering following standards: The policies shall be implemented from hunger are automatically victims of violations without discrimination towards improving equity, and through government policies. Not all forms of hunger or the progressive realization of the rights shall be control- malnutrition result from harmful government activities led by set benchmarks. The benchmarks can then be and therefore cannot be judged as violations. The im- measured by indicators which will prove if they have pact of climate change might be so monumental in one been achieved or not. Governments are required to use country or region that the government will not have the the maximum amount of their available resources. The means to adequately help all affected persons to adapt. policy development process should prioritize the con- Therefore, hunger, as a result of natural disasters cannot cept of vulnerable groups being addressed first. automatically be judged as a violation of the right to adequate food. A violation can only be identified when While setting priorities, it is important to keep in mind hunger is caused because of the government‘s failure to the interdependence of the different rights. The indi- develop a minimum response system for disaster-prepar- visibility and interdependence of all rights mean that edness, when the adaptation measures are not oriented there should be no hierarchy in the different kinds of towards the neediest, or when the government is not rights. Nevertheless, it cannot be denied that scarcity of using the available resources. A rights-based approach resources and institutional constraints may require the requires a careful analysis of what can be considered a setting of priorities. However, the implementation of the government responsibility and what cannot. core obligation of all human rights must be simultaneously guaranteed and addressed. It is impossible to fo- 5. A rights-based assessment and framework must cus only on the implementation of some selected rights, not only look into the obligations and responsibilities such as the right to food, while neglecting others, like of national governments, but it should also assess the access to essential health care. potential impact of governmental policy effects on persons living in another country. The Covenant on ESC- (D) This will only work if constant monitoring and as- rights specifies in Art. 2.1. that „each state party to the sessment is done to guarantee that these standards are present Covenant undertakes to take steps, individually applied and that the rights are effectively implemented. and through international assistance and co-operation Governments need to know if their policy decisions are (...)“. The Committee has interpreted that paragraph by effective and if they reach those groups they are sup- stating that states should not violate the rights of per- posed to reach. sons in other countries either directly through its own policy measures or indirectly through policy decisions (E) Finally, people need to have the right to complain, of intergovernmental organizations in which they have if they are overlooked or negatively affected by policy influence. States should also check that national pri- decisions. vate actors working abroad do not contribute to human rights violations. Such extraterritorial negative impacts These five elements of national strategy can be used should be avoided. In the development debate, the is- in the formulation of national adaptation policies. The sue is normally discussed as a „coherence problem“ that Voluntary Guidelines on the implementation of the needs to be solved in order to create a more develop- right to adequate food, adopted by the FAO Members, ment friendly, international environment. encompass 19 guidelines that describe for each policy field, how governments can best design policies in order Although the issue of extraterritorial obligations is still to support the implementation of the right to adequate new in the human rights discourse, yet it might be pos- food. A similar check list for the design of adaptation sible to agree that negative impacts from foreign policy policies to climate change should be developed at the effects should be avoided. The question becomes more national level. difficult when positive support measures are reflected.

178 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS How much international assistance and support can approach does not allow certain trade-offs which are countries, which are unable to fully implement rights in possible in development-oriented thinking. Adaptation their own country, expect after having shown that they policies should be designed so that the price affected have completely exhausted their own means? What persons must pay is not too high. If infrastructure invest- can they expect from donor countries? Are there legally ments are needed, such as the construction of dikes or binding entitlements to help them? These questions dams to better regulate river flow and people needs to need to be answered with a resounding yes. Art. 2 of be resettled, adequate compensation must be ensured the Covenant on ESC-Rights emphasizes the obligation and people should have the possibility to file complaints of international cooperation. The international commu- in courts. A rights-based framework requires that an as- nity has the obligation to support those countries who sessment is done of how different policy choices will cannot alone implement the rights of the covenant, al- affect the prospects for the implementation of a certain though there is no specific amount mentioned. right, and how the different choices affect different individuals and groups. This process must occur before Such international support is also required to poor choosing among different policy alternatives. It can also countries in the implementation of national adaptation help governments set priorities in national budget deci- measures. This is a particularly important aspect of any sions. adaptation regime, because poorer countries will suffer substantially from climate change and must cope with 7. General achievements in human development are a high burden of adaptation needs. The UNFCCC con- not always accompanied by achievements in human tains the recognition that those countries which have rights fulfillment. Certain development processes may historically caused most of global warming have first the go hand in hand with the deterioration of livelihoods obligation to reduce their emissions. The Kyoto Protocol and the human rights fulfillment for particularly vulner- is formulating binding reduction targets. The UNFCCC able groups. The liberalization of agricultural markets also recognizes the obligation to support poorer coun- may increase the economic opportunities of a society, tries affected by climate change in helping with adap- while the number of hungry and malnourished among tation. As we have seen, the amount is currently not smallholder farmers, who do not profit from the same prescribed and the development of the adaptation fund policy, may simultaneously increase. In some cases, this came slowly, but the obligation is recognized. It is a first can occur on a dramatic scale. Impact studies done by step to support countries which are unable to cover all the FAO show the divergent effects on the effect of trade costs for implementing adequate adaptation policies. liberalisation following start of the WTO Agreement Much more is needed in the envisaged post-2012 agree- on Agriculture in 1995 on agriculture in developing ment. countries. Human rights create entitlements, and the language of claims can be of great importance to devel- 6. Human rights are individual entitlements. They set opmental processes, which often create conflicts over limits on the restrictions and deprivations that individu- resources and social struggles. Arbitration and litigation als can permissibly bear, even when promoting noble can be important measures to regulate such conflicts. social goals or overall development objectives like economic growth. Rights protect individuals, minorities, 8. A rights-based framework can be a helpful tool to and other particularly marginalized groups from policies complement climate change adaptation policies. It can that may benefit society as a whole, yet place huge bur- help assess problems and analyze causes of the impacts dens on them individually. A human right asks for zero of climate change. It can help to make decisions on tolerance for violations. In the same way that it is not modification of the policy design of adaptation policies acceptable to tolerate slavery for economic growth, it to climate change, in order to avoid violations of the is hard to explain why some people die from hunger right to food. It allows individuals seeking remedies to for the benefit of higher societal goals. A rights based discover whether policy measures will have negative

179 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS outcomes for them, or if they are negatively affected by countries contributing most to climate change be legally the results of certain adaptation policy measures. Rights challenged? The arguments in favor pinpoint the fact create entitlements; and a rights-based framework can that different scenarios for climate change will have be seen as an important tool to effectively demand pol- dramatically different impacts on the right to food and icy changes from governments through legal means. A other human rights for a huge number of people. The rights-based framework can therefore help to mobilize human rights accountability of polluting states needs to political will against corporate and other vested interest be carefully analyzed. One option for dealing with the and bad governance. This approach has the potential to situation would be to apply the Polluter Pays Principle improve the quality of adaptation policies. (PPP). The PPP normally applies to concrete situations where both the pollutant and the victim are identifiable; 9. Developmental thinking helps to focus on long term yet the causal chains for climate change are much long- development needs and processes, and takes into con- er, and it is difficult to connect certain victims to certain sideration the broader processes of societal change. The polluters. However, it should be noted that the scien- two frameworks (development-oriented, rights-based) tific evidence is striking so that a revised PPP could be should not be seen as being in conflict – even though developed. Both principles, the Polluter Pays Principle some potential conflicts between the two models have and the „do no harm“ principal should be utilized and already been addressed here – but as complementary further developed in international climate negotiations. tools. The human rights framework is a strong device because it defines minimum standards for state behav- 12. In conclusion, rights-based adaptation policies are ior. Development thinking helps to follow long term one good tool to ensure that money earmarked for ad- strategies and to take sustainability limitations into con- aptation is spent reasonably. We suggest, that the Office sideration. of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, the FAO, and the UNFCCC develop a guideline, which helps gov- 10. In cases of failing states where a national rule of ernments to design adaptation policies accordingly. law no longer exists, people lose access to judicial procedures. They can no longer legally claim their rights, and direct accountability mechanisms will no longer work. These countries will have major difficulties in developing any kind of adaptation policy in reaction to experienced or expected impacts from climate change. Nevertheless, the basic human rights present an internationally recognized standard. Thus, a reference base can be constructed to check on lawless states. This structure can be a source of strength and orientation for people struggling against oppression in such conflicted countries. A universally recognized, binding framework with the human rights treaties already exists and can hold neglecting governments accountable for their actions with formal legal procedures at the international level.

11. There is an open discussion in international law about the following question: Can the „do no harm“ principle mentioned above regarding a rights based-approach to adaptation policies also be applied to mitigation-related aspects of climate change? Can the non-action of those

180 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS 11 Conclusion and recommen theless are aware that unmitigated climate change easily dations: climate change, food might overwhelm adaptation capacity in many parts of security and human rights the world.

3. The impact of climate change on food security will 1. Food security as it relates to climate change is an issue be substantive. The local and regional assessments of that had not been at the forefront of the climate change impact will become better known, when more detailed debate for many years. Several reasons contributed to studies are available. So far, the debate has been biased this fact. (1) For a long time, climate models were not towards global food security concerns, i.e. the global precise enough to forecast local or regional trends in balance of how much and where food can be produced. weather patterns, precipitation etc., so it was difficult to However, it is of utmost importance that household ef- describe trends in agriculture with a sufficient solid data fects are taken into consideration when predicting the based. (2) The IPCC did not even dedicate a chapter to impacts on hunger and malnutrition. Climate change food and other agricultural products in any of its first will impact people and groups already vulnerable to three assessment reports. The FAR‘s chapter on „Food, food insecurity, but new groups will also be affected by Fibre and Forest Products“ was the first step in broach- climate change. The main driver for climate change is

ing this topic. (3) The CO2 fertilizer effect was overesti- increasing surface temperatures, which in turn influ- mated. The FAO had hoped for several years that global ence most other factors contributing to changing cli- food production would be fostered by this fertilizer ef- mate conditions such as precipitation, water availability, fect. At the same time, the climate change risks were and weather extremes. underestimated in the area of food production. All in all, the perception has changed from one of optimism to a 4. At the same time, agriculture is one of the main more realistic assessment of climate change risks. sources of carbon emissions. The agricultural sector contributes to over 30 percent of current annual to- 2. This study is based on the assumption that a two tal emissions. Agriculture itself provides 13.5 percent, dimensional response to climate change is necessary: and deforestation supplies 17.4 percent of global total avoiding the unmanageable and managing the unavoid- emissions. Adaptation and mitigation measures should able. Managing the unavoidable means mitigating the therefore go hand in hand in the agricultural sector. impact of climate change and avoiding dangerous cli- Techniques are available to reduce emissions. Examples mate change from happening. An emerging consensus like engaging in conservation agriculture or reducing among scientists states that global warming must be emissions of methane and nitrous oxide from livestock limited to a temperature increase well below 2°C com- production and are available and summarized in chap- pared to pre-industrial levels. ter 4.7.

In order to reach that goal, industrialized countries 5. Adaptation to the adverse impacts of climate change need to take the lead in drastic emissions reductions. has long been neglected as a development issue by both Globally a 50 to 85 percent reduction of emissions governmental and nongovernmental organisations.

by 2050 is necessary and actual CO2 emission should Adaptation measures were not at the centre of climate start to decrease, at the latest, by 2015. Managing the negotiations in the first few years. They were often seen unavoidable means that sound adaptation policies are as a road to distract attention from the most difficult needed to deal with the inevitable consequences of and politically controversial task of reducing emissions, climate change, some of which are already visible and particularly in countries that have contributed most to immense. While this study focuses on the adaptation climate change. Since then, it has become clear that the needs particularly related to food security and the reali- additional benefits of adaptation will be monumental zation of the right to adequate food, the authors never- and that early action is cheaper than a post-disaster re-

181 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS sponse, even though there are still many uncertainties the first rapidly developing country, which accepts that in existing adaptation cost estimates. emissions have to peak also in their own country between 2020 and 2035. 6. Adaptation requires substantive investment in infrastructure such as dams, flood-resistant storage facilities, 7. A clear recommendation from this study is that a reli- and techniques for reducing water loss in distribution able financial-based mechanism must be created within systems etc. It requires monitoring weather extremes the UN-climate negotiations if the unavoidable is to be and developing disaster preparation strategies. Higher managed. Substantial additional financial resources are prices for energy, agricultural inputs, water, and food needed to cope with the expected adaptation needs imports must be expected. And capacity building in for developing countries. However, more aid does not communities particularly at risk, in national, regional, necessarily mean that more funds will reach the most and local administrations etc. is of utmost importance vulnerable groups. This is one reason why the UNFCCC and will require resources. Due to these impacts and negotiations must discuss which frameworks can in- the resources required to adapt to them, resources that centivize adaptation. Adaptation measures need to be would have otherwise been available to realize the properly designed and focus on particularly vulnerable Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) might be di- groups. The rights-based framework is one very prom- verted to adaptation measures. The realization of the ising option to help measure progress, review govern- MDGs might further be influenced by the direct impact ment activities, and to generate resources. of climate change on food, water, and health.

„How the world deals with climate change to- 11.1 Climate change, vulnerabilities, day will have a direct bearing on the human and groups at risk development prospects of a large section of humanity“ (UNDP 2007, 8). 8. The concept of „food security“ is a key concept in the United Nations to measure the food and nutrition situa- The recent rounds of climate negotiations after Bali – tion of people and groups. The latest standard definition in March/April 2008 in Bangkok and in June 2008 in used in the FAO (2007b, 6) is: Bonn – have shown that the costs of adaptation and the present under-funding by the perpetuators of cli- „food security exists when all people at all times mate change remain a key contentious issue. This have physical or economic access to sufficient, is true despite the goodwill of many developing and safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary some developed countries to work jointly on develop- needs and food preferences for an active and ing a new climate regime. Most developing countries healthy life. To achieve food security, all four of hardly contribute to the emissions which cause climate its components must be adequate. These are: change, and often they see domestic emissions reduc- availability, stability, accessibility, and utiliza- tions as a hindrance to development. If development tion.“ rights are taken seriously, industrialized countries must invest in mitigation and reduce emissions even more Additionally, food security depends on a variety of un- substantially. They will also have to finance and support derlying determinants; food must be nutritious and deployment mechanisms for mitigation and adaptation safe. The body must be in a condition to consume food technologies and make these technologies widely avail- without becoming ill. UNICEF and other nutritionists able. At the same time, developing countries need to emphasize the fact that half of the children dying from realize that climate change is a development issue, and hunger are not dying because of missing food supply, thus this challenge has to be integrated into develop- but rather because they cannot digest nutrients due to ment policies and planning. For example South Africa is sickness, e.g. diarrhea (Eide 2004). This study utilizes

182 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS the differentiation of three levels of food security to de- their goods. Most have limited or no adequate access to scribe those groups that are vulnerable to the effects of extension services, credits, or insurance mechanisms. climate change. Absence of land reform forces poor and marginal farming households to use land highly exposed to catastro- (1) Food security on a global scale: Which is the level to phes like floods or droughts. Usually, they are also politi- analyze overall trends and to understand which effects cally marginalized, without an important voice in local climate change might have on agricultural production, or national politics. fishery production, and livestock production at the global level. This is important because these trends will 10. In order to deal adequately with the impact of cli- translate into agricultural prices and will influence deci- mate change on food security, work has to start with a sions of producers worldwide. good analysis of those groups which are already particularly marginal today. They will often be the most affect- (2) Food security on a national level: This level of analy- ed by climate change, and they have very limited cop- sis is equally as important, because the national level is ing capacities. Given the crucial role of marginalization where most agricultural policy decisions are made. It in the food security debate, it is clear that agricultural will be decided here if food security concerns are cov- and food production problems cannot be tackled at the ered by imports and how much financial resources are technical level. The situation of the rural poor has been made available for national agricultural policies. Central aggravated by the fact that rural areas were neglected elements of adaptation policies will be defined at the in regional, national, and international policy making. national level. For a long time, the policy focus was on investments in industry and urban infrastructure, causing budget al- (3) Food security on a household level: Without a de- locations for rural areas to be reduced substantially – of- tailed look at the impacts at the household level, the ten by more than 50 percent. The same happened with analysis would lack an understanding of the difficulties bi- and multilateral aid budgets. and specific necessities each person faces in regard to food security. This knowledge is crucial in designing 11. A recent FAO/OECD study highlighted that prices adequate adaptation policies that support those groups, should decline from their recent peak, yet they will re- particularly marginal producers and vulnerable consum- main above the average of the past decade (OECD/FAO ers, which are most likely to become food insecure. All 2008). The study summarized all of the factors that are three levels of the food security definition have been contributing to a long term scenario where increasing taken into consideration in the present study. demand goes hand in hand with limits in food producing resources – particularly soils and water. While this 9. Around 80 percent of the hungry live in rural areas; scenario does not necessarily lead to scarcity of food in half of them are smallholder peasants, 22 percent are the coming years, it is an indication that prices for ag- landless laborers, and 8 percent are hunter-gatherers, ricultural produce will not decrease to the levels that fishers, and pastoralists. This situation is expected to prevailed during the last decades. There is a continued persist. While the urban poor are the fastest growing rise in fertilizer prices and energy costs, which are ma- group of food insecure people, more the 50 percent of jor input factors, for farmers. Climate change will af- the hungry are still projected to live in rural areas in fect several factors which influence the supply side. 2050. The majority of these groups live on extremely Governments have to deal with this challenge when marginal conditions. They often live in remote geo- designing policies to adapt to climate change and imple- graphical locations, in ecological vulnerable areas, or menting the right to adequate food. on slopes or drought-prone areas/rainforest etc. They have difficulties accessing means of transport, such as 12. In this study the term food security is compared roads, and thus access to markets where they can sell with the concepts of the right to adequate food and food

183 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS sovereignty. While food security describes a goal; the cial for developing adequate responses to food insecurity right to adequate food obliges governments to qualita- in the face of climate change. The vulnerability-specific tively respond to the problem of hunger and malnutri- information, which primarily looks at the internal con- tion. Food security therefore describes the outcome of stitution of a region or a community with regard to non- the realization of the right to adequate food. The im- climate stressors, is the necessary first step. It then must plementation of the right to adequate food is guided by be connected to climate-related factors, for example the specific government obligations. A human rights-based likeliness of extreme weather events, changing precipi- monitoring system has the specific focus on analyzing tation trends etc. This will result in general assessments whether governments are implementing their specific of vulnerability to climate change, but may also – and human rights obligations. It measures the outcomes this would be appropriate in the context of this study – regarding questions whether government policies con- be translated into sector-specific climate change risk, for stitute an adequate answer to the human rights obliga- example with regard to food security. Climate change tions. It is a platform to analyze whether governments will therefore impact groups which have been always use their respective resources adequately and most at the risk of food insecurity, but it will also affect new reasonably to fully guarantee these rights. Food secu- groups who become vulnerable do to changing weather rity monitoring looks at how many and to what degree conditions in their region. Many vulnerable groups are people are malnourished. A third term gaining promi- already „experts“ in risk management, but their ability nence within debates of civil society organisations deal- to adapt to climate change is often restricted because of ing with issues such as hunger, malnutrition, and rural their extremely limited coping capacities. development is food sovereignty. Food sovereignty is a political concept primarily developed in the context of 14. A person or a family is vulnerable due to their liveli- La Via Campesina, a global small farmers‘ movement. hood situation and their factor endowment. The ques- In March 2007, Via Campesina coordinated an inter- tion of whether a vulnerable situation translates into national gathering of civil society in Mali, which was persistence of or to additional hunger or malnutrition prepared by the umbrella organization of small farmers is dependent on the form of the government response. in West Africa, ROPPA, and other civil society organi- A given (insufficient) factor endowment of families is al- sations. The outcome was a common statement that ready partially a result of government policy. This study describes the ideas behind the concept of food sover- therefore recommends using the right to adequate food eignty quite well (see Nyeleni-Declaration 2007). Food in the design of adaptation policies. Increasing the ac- sovereignty has been developed as a concept by social countability of governments will also help to guide the movements and farmers organisations to protest the ne- implementation of effective adaptation policies. glect of rural areas and rural development in national and international policies. 11.2 Relevant trends in climate change 13. Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries are all sensitive to climatic conditions. Climate change will have direct 15. The impacts of climate change on food security will impacts on these three sectors, including their produc- be substantive and will be found in all components of tivity. In turn, this will affect the income of vulnerable the global, national, and local food systems. The FAR groups that depend on resources and products derived Working Group II summarized some major trends from these sectors. The scale of the direct adverse and which show that many natural systems are affected by positive effects varies with specific geographical situa- similar processes of climate change, particularly those tion. However, macro-level projections are not sufficient related to temperature increase (IPCC 2007b). to identify the most vulnerable groups within regions or countries. This requires further efforts. Vulnerability as- (1) There is a high confidence that natural systems are sessments on the national and community levels are cru- affected on all continents by changes in snow, ice, and

184 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS frozen ground, including permafrost. This conclusion resources. Populations in developing countries includes the enlargement and increase of glacial lakes, are generally exposed to relatively high risks of increasing ground instability in permafrost regions, rock adverse impacts from climate change“ (IPCC avalanches in mountain areas, as well as substantial 2001, 12). changes in Arctic and Antarctic ecosystems. India, for example, is projected to experience significant (2) In regard to hydrological systems, there is high losses, with large areas of current cropland losing signifi- confidence, that many glacier- and snow-fed-rivers will cant productivity. It is anticipated that this will lead to experience increased run-off and earlier spring peak dis- higher levels of food insecurity in many vulnerable, de- charge. A warming of lakes and rivers in many regions veloping countries. They will need support to cope and is projected. finance the necessary adaptation measures. Developed countries will not be immune from large effects of cli- (3) There is also high confidence that recent warming is mate change on their agricultural sectors. strongly affecting terrestrial biological systems, with effects such as earlier timing of spring events, leaf-unfold- 17. The impact of climate change will be particularly ing, bird migration, and egg-laying. Earlier greening of substantial to smallholder and subsistence agriculture. vegetation in the spring is also supported by satellite ob- Their livelihood systems, particularly in low latitudes, servation studies which show that trend occurring since will be affected by major changes due to climate change. the early 1980s. Longer thermal growing seasons due to The farming system will be affected by the previously

recent warming is also related to this observation. described changes in temperature, elevation of CO2, precipitation on yields of both food and cash crops. The (4) Substantive new studies have shown that rising productivity of livestock and fisheries systems will also water temperatures will impact marine and freshwater be affected, as well as potential income gained from col- biological systems. It will lead to range changes and ear- lecting activities in forests. lier migrations of fish in rivers, and it will contribute to shifts in ranges and changes in algal, plankton and 18. Climate zones will be forced upwards or pole-wards. fish abundance in high-latitude oceans and high-altitude Linear trends can go hand in hand with the quickly lakes. growing possibility of non-linear – and potentially catastrophic – changes. The relationship between global cli- 16. This study has described the major effects climate mate and the earth system is a complex one, particularly change will have on food security through the increase due to the fact that climate and non climate drivers are of variability of weather patterns, particularly the ex- interrelated. Additionally, non-linear processes include pected increase in extreme weather events. The impact several feedback loops, and these loops are very difficult of climate change on food production and agriculture, to predict. forests, fisheries, pasture and livestock production, water resources, and health and nutrition has been shown The history of the earth shows that non-linear processes and can be summarized in the following way: Countries have happened quite often, particularly in the Holocene and groups of countries will be hit differently. Many epoch. Ocean streams have frequently stalled abruptly, studies indicate that ice shields have suddenly melted, or monsoons have unexpectedly collapsed. Often small disruptions are suf- „the impacts of climate change will fall dispro- ficient to entail fundamental changes. Simulations based portionately upon developing countries and the on the knowledge of abrupt climate change in the past poor persons within all countries, and thereby and the scientific school of analyzing highly complex exacerbate inequities in health status and ac- processes that was established in the 1970s support the cess to adequate food, clean water, and other finding that our climate and the earth system might re-

185 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS act to the increasing temperature from anthropogenic such as dams or other mechanisms of flood control. climate change with enormous magnitude. The study They cover changes in the use of agricultural crops and describes some of the latest research on such tipping varieties, irrigation, and land use techniques to support points. affected families in coping with the need to migrate or to cover the cost of other forms of damage to the house 19. A recommendation from the impact analysis of this or the land of the family. It is also important to differen- study concludes that specific family situations need to tiate adaptation policies at the different levels and define be studied, because livelihood systems are typically what can be done at the household level, locally, by complex and include a number of interfering factors. national governments, or with international support. For example, several crops and livestock species are involved in intercropping systems, and many smallholder 21. Analytically, the IPCC further differentiates between livelihoods are comprised of a variety of income sources two categories of adaptations: such as the use of wild resources from forests, remittances, and other non agricultural income strategies. „autonomous adaptation, which is the ongoing Government support can also play a role, but so far implementation of existing knowledge and tech- many of the smallholder farmers are faced with a mar- nology in response to the changes in climate ginalization process in national and international agri- experienced, and planned adaptation, which is cultural policies. Therefore, support is often unavailable the increase in adaptive capacity by mobilizing or insufficient. Effective adaptation policies should start institutions and policies to establish or strength- here and support coping and adaptation strategies of en conditions favorable for effective adaptation poorer groups in rural and urban environments. Coping and investment in new technologies and infra- strategies are characterized by changes in the relative structure“ (Easterling et al. 2007, 294). importance between different income opportunities, and they will vary with the factors influencing the in- The advantage of this IPCC differentiation is that it come situation of families. Adaptation can be much bet- looks into the coping strategies and capacities available ter managed if good government support and responses locally to adjust to the changing circumstances without are developed and implemented. any government interference. This perspective helps to also identify the need for planned interventions as the available coping capacities might be very limited. 11.3 Response capacities to climate change – nationally and internationally 22. While some action needs to be implemented urgently in order to adapt to the short term consequences of cli- 20. The dimension of the problems linked to adaptation mate change, adaptation must be viewed as a long term to climate change will be huge for developing countries. challenge for societies. „Mainstreaming“, or the integra- The IPCC report shows that poorer countries will be rel- tion of this challenge into sectoral and other policies and atively more affected by the impact of climate change. programs at different levels of decision making, will be Their limited capacities to react are one important rea- necessary, and it requires a prominent role in the reduc- son for this particular affectedness. Adaptation policies tion of vulnerability from climate change. Ecosystem cover a variety of interventions31 starting from the abil- management plans that allow a multi-sectoral response ity to predict changing weather conditions, particularly in dealing with whole livelihood systems are needed in extreme weather events, to infrastructural investments addition to sectoral responses. At the same time, adapta- in methods and techniques of disaster management tion policies must address negative effects on the most

31 A detailed overview about adaptation measures for key vulnerable sectors are shown in chapter 4.3 .

186 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS vulnerable groups in order to avoid hardship for groups the means to finance the recovery costs of catastrophic most affected by climate change. Adaptation must also disasters. These administrations could greatly benefit include correcting mal-adaptations – for instance, by no from adequate insurance contracts, co-financed by pol- longer providing flood insurance that encourage risky luters. Least-developed countries can hardly afford the development in flood zones. This study summarizes the technical analyses and other start-up costs for insurance instruments available for response capacities at all lev- systems. Scaling up will prove costly, especially since els. It also presents adaptation measures in key vulner- disaster risks, unlike health or accident, affect whole able sectors which developed countries highlighted in regions simultaneously and thus require spatial diversifi- their national communications to the UNFCCC. This cation, reinsurance and/or large capital reserves. Thus, study recommends that adaptation policies must be it is very important that risk management mechanisms closely monitored in order to guarantee that resources – including innovative insurance mechanisms – play a are spent meaningfully. role in the UNFCCC negotiations.

23. Improved response capacity needs to include better climate information systems. On the one hand, develop- 11.4 Response capacity at the local and ing countries need assistance in generating and process- community level ing relevant data. On the other hand, the available data needs to be distributed within the country. All groups 25. The literature on local and community-based ad- potentially affected by climate change need to have ac- aptation policies is increasing, and several studies are cess to relevant climate information. available which provide a good overview of policy options for adaptation at the local level. One example is a This study has summarized the recent discussion about case study carried out in Bangladesh. It has developed the scope and relevance of private or private/public in- a useful typology to describe different policy measures surance instruments for adaptation to climate change. and policy areas that need to be involved in local ad- Experience so far has been too limited to determine aptation measures to climate change (FAO and ADPC with certainty if internationally backed public/private 2006, 66f). The authors of that study show that success- insurance systems are viable in the long haul. But there ful local adaptation to climate variability and change is are very promising examples, that show the potential not an easy task. Rather, it requires multiple pathways of this instrument for effective disaster aid and for set- with well planned and interrelated short- and long-term ting incentives to support adaptation to climate change. measures. The task ahead in designing meaningful adap- Despite the promise of these new initiatives, insurance tation policies at local levels is the need to find the right still reaches only a small fraction of vulnerable commu- combination of these factors. This should give answers nities and governments. to the expected changes in the „geo-physical settings“ as well as the necessary adjustments in the „livelihood 24. Weather risks destabilize households and countries systems“. and create food insecurity. As a case in point, floods, cyclones, and droughts have been a major cause of hunger 26. To sum it up, adaptation policies need to be em- affecting more than 30 million persons since 2000 in the bedded appropriately in the local context and should Southern African Development Community (SADC). be oriented towards the most vulnerable groups. One Governments and donors only react to these shocks of the strengths of using a rights-based approach in the rather than proactively managing the risks. These emer- design of adaptation policies is that it helps to set up gency reactions have been criticized for being ad hoc procedural guarantees for the affected communities and and, at times, untimely. They are even credited with people for participation. This included having access destabilizing local food markets. Similarly, many highly- to relevant information (transparency) and the right to exposed developing country governments do not have complain. The second strength is that a rights-based ap-

187 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS proach requests a specific outcome. Governments have preparedness and early warning to insurance schemes to prove that their policy and budget decisions are fo- and policy design issues. Other stakeholders, such the cused toward the most vulnerable groups and that no scientific community and NGOs, should be integrated group is overlooked. Governments must prove that into adaptation planning. Each of these institutions can their own adaptation policies do no harm, i.e. deprive help to best design adaptation policies. Aid organisa- people of access to food or water. Therefore, it is very tions are often those who are more in touch with other sensitive and meaningful to target those in most need institutions than most vulnerable groups. They can help when approaching adaptation policies, as many studies by using their experience in project management and demand. implementation and also by mobilizing internationally available knowledge.

11.5 Response capacity at the international level 11.6 Climate change and development

27. In discussing global food security and the response 29. Climate change will have an impact on the econ- capacity of international aid and intergovernmental or- omy as a whole. The cost of importing food to low in- ganisations, this study concludes that the availability come, food deficit countries might increase substantial- of food is not an indicator explaining why people are ly. Larger scale losses of fertile land will lead to sizable hungry. The overall availability of food is dependent on changes in the national economic structure. It will also many factors, including agricultural research and pro- influence the income governments receive, which will ductivity. This chapter has shown that it is not only im- be one of the important sources to finance adaptation portant to look into the high potential areas of produc- policies. Public budgets will not only face a potential tion, because their relative advantage might suffer from decrease in income, but also potentially an increase in climate change (less water, flooded fertile coastal zones public expenditure for things like food and water sup- affected by salt water intrusion etc.). ply. Public budgets could also be largely affected by the costs for financing infrastructure to cope with climate Productivity gains will be best achieved when small- change, such as dam constructions etc. holder farmers get more support and incentives to produce. Support must be directed at them in order to en- The spread of additional diseases might create extra sure that they can use it (linked with micro-credits and costs. As a result, less money might be available for the training etc). If this support is simultaneously directed regular implementation of the MDGs. Money for adap- to help them to adapt to climate change or cope with tation – both internationally and nationally – should not the consequences, then adaptation policies are becom- come from the overall development budget. Otherwise, ing more oriented towards an integrated approach that funding might shift from long term development invest- includes poverty concerns. At the same time, smallhold- ments to more short term adjustment projects to climate er farmers are still the biggest single group of hungry change. persons worldwide. If their income can be raised, the hunger situation will become better. 30. The increasing environmental scarcity of resources in some regions might be one important factor trigger- 28. Development cooperation can play a crucial role in ing conflicts. The example of Darfur shows that the on- all stages of the adaptation policies. Different aid actors going depletion and overuse of resources can become can play different roles in development aid. Bi- and mul- at least one of the reasons for conflict. Such situations, tilateral aid can help integrate adaptation into policy de- both environmentally-induced conflicts and existing velopment. Capacity must be built at all stages of the ad- conflicts that could be aggravated by climate change, aptation process in developing countries, from disaster will increase the number of refugees and cause migra-

188 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS tion. Migrants and internally displaced persons (IDP) are It is important to note that the AF can not only finance becoming one of the most vulnerable groups potentially projects, but also programs and activities. The Adaptation affected by climate change, and they are without many Fund has the potential to successfully demonstrate that coping capacities to deal with the new situation. effective international financing mechanisms with direct access for developing countries and independent 31. The financing of adaptation measures will need from the conventional donor-recipient structures are adequate international support. This study discusses possible. The better the AF serves the goal of advancing current adaptation instruments, such as the National adaptation in developing countries, the better it is suited Action Plans for Adaptation that already exist under the to play a key role in future adaptation financing beyond UNFCCC. It also shows both the benefits and weak- 2012. When developing its guidelines, it should address nesses of the new Adaptation Fund, a new instrument how to monitor project and program implementation to under the Kyoto Protocol. The governance structure has ensure effective disbursement of resources, and, more been finally agreed on in Bali in December 2007. importantly, how to ensure that particularly vulnerable communities are prioritized target groups. A key element under the UNFCCC to advance the understanding and practical approaches in assessing adap- 33. Once the large scale resources are generated, it re- tation costs and benefits is the Nairobi Work Program mains to be decided whether one operating entity will on Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (NWP). The strategically manage these funds, or if management will NWP has the main objective of helping all countries be disbursed among different sub-entities who have par- improve their understanding of the impacts of climate ticular expertise in certain fields etc. Part of this strate- change and to make informed decisions on practical gic management must be assisting the implementation adaptation actions and measures. Thus, it is a good ex- of frameworks based on incentives for adaptation within ample of cooperative action and sharing of experiences countries. The share of public investments may be high- among Annex-I and Non-Annex-I Parties. Many gover in developing countries than in developed ones – and ernments have stressed the need that further work on thus will be the share of adaptation costs. Nevertheless the NWP should contribute to the new considerations many actions relevant for adaptation are being under- under the Bali Action Plan. Improved cost assessments taken by private actors (OECD 2008a). But this will in will also be important for the work of the Adaptation practice only work, especially for vulnerable groups, if Fund Board. governments create enabling environments as well as incentive structures and support those who can not af- 32. The Adaptation Fund (AF) is one of the most innova- ford private sector solutions. tive funding instruments, and it is not fed by voluntary contributions but by a levy – actually the first international envirnonmental levy – on emissions reductions 11.7 Regional perspectives for climate issued under the Clean Development Mechanism. The change and food security (Africa, Asia, present forecasts of the resources that will flow into the Latin America) AF will probably be much larger than the voluntary contributions to the Convention Funds. 34. The chapter about regional effects of climate change on food security gives short summaries of more detailed However, it will still be insufficient to cover the needs. regional studies, which were written in parallel to the After Parties agreed upon the governance structure of main study. The chapters on Africa and Asia start with the Adaptation Fund, with a non-Annex-I – synonymic an overview of the research results about the effects of for the developing countries – majority in the Adaptation climate change on food production, agriculture and wa- Fund Board, it now has to work cut out for it in fully ter availability. This is followed by an identification of instituting the Adaptation Fund (AF). key affected vulnerable groups and a discussion of the

189 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS available response capacity of governments and local ac- duction in Africa. Better models and methods tors in the regions.The Latin American study has not to improve understanding of multiple stresses, yet been available. So in chapter 12 we will give a short particularly at a range of scales, e.g., global, summary based on the newest IPCC results regarding regional and local, and including the role of Latin America. climate change and variability, are therefore required“. 11.7.1 Africa 37. In addition to the direct impacts of climate change 35. In summarizing the Africa-related conclusions of the on food security and the MDGs, recent research pays in- FAR, it becomes obvious that climate change has the po- creasing attention to the role water scarcity or reduced tential to compromise the ability of many African socie- food availability play in the emergence of conflicts, of- ties to achieve the different Millennium Development ten through increased competition for scarce resources. Goals (MDGs) and to improve food security. The IPCC These may further aggravate the livelihoods of people. expects that the area suitable for agriculture and the Climate change already represents an important cause length of growing seasons and yield potential, particu- for existing conflicts, as several experts have concluded larly along the margins of semi-arid and arid areas, will for the Darfur conflict, where a long-term decline in rain- decrease. The yields from rain-fed agriculture are ex- fall significantly contributed to the scarcity of available pected to decrease by up to 50 percent in some coun- fresh water (Ban-Ki Moon 2007). In the southern part tries already by 2020 (IPCC 2007b, 13). of Africa, climate change is expected to further weaken the agricultural potentials of countries belonging to the Also, the number of people under increased water stress poorest societies in the world. This would worsen the will significantly increase from 75 to 250 million people state of human security and strain the governments‘ ca- in the next 15 years with a further increase until 2050. pabilities. While the consequences of 2020 will be independent of the results of a worldwide mitigation strategy the conse- 38. The most vulnerable groups include smallholder quences for the water situation in 2050 and even more farmers who rely on rain-fed agriculture, pastoralists, 2100 will be largely determined by it. This will prima- and the fishing communities. Communities across the rily take place in Southern and Northern Africa. continent have developed ways of dealing with impacts of climate related events over time. Drought and floods In addition, local food supplies are projected to be nega- are not new to many communities in Africa. However, tively affected by decreasing fisheries resources in large the increasing frequency and intensity of these events lakes. This result is due to rising water temperatures, are rendering some of the strategies that have served which may be exacerbated by continued over-fishing. communities well in the past inadequate. Lake Victoria, for example, represents an important food source for 30 million people in danger. For farmers, mixed cropping served as insurance against total crop failure; rotational cropping allowed for the re- 36. However, Boko et al. (2007, 457) also note that juvenation of soils sustaining production at reasonable levels. Pastoralists migrated to better areas in times of „the contribution of climate to food insecurity drought, traded animals for cereals and other products in Africa is still not fully understood, particularly from neighboring communities, and kept animals with the role of other multiple stresses that enhance friends and relatives elsewhere as a form of insurance. impacts of droughts and floods and possible fu- With the rapid changes in climate in the recent past, ture climate change. While drought may affect some of the strategies are no longer viable, others might production in some years, climate variability become ineffective in a quickly further changing climate. alone does not explain the limits of food pro- And there is evidence of erosion of coping and adaptive

190 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS strategies as a result of varying land-use changes and differentiated responsibility and respective capability, socio-political and cultural stresses. developed countries have a moral and legal obligation to support poor countries in the process. 39. Until recently, climate change adaptation hardly played a role in African politics. An analysis undertaken (4) Reform the WTO and other trade regimes to ensure in 2007 on existing Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers that it does not hinder vulnerable groups from being showed that both adaptation and climate change were protected. hardly mentioned (Harmeling, Burck and Bals 2007). However, at that time, the available PRSPs were some (5) There is need for coordination of efforts at the differ- years old, and now the picture is changing. Adaptation ent levels (local, national, international) to ensure that has gained a lot of policy profile in the last two years, as limited resources are used optimally. can be seen in the Addis Abeba Declaration on Climate Change and Development in Africa, which was adopted 11.7.2 Asia by the African Union in 2007 (AU 2007), or the Joint Africa-EU Strategy (Africa-EU 2007). The NAPA process 41. In Asia, an increasing trend towards a warmer sur- has helped governments to understand the challenge of face air temperature has been observed during recent adaptation, although it is only a first step. decades ranging between less than 1°C to 3°C per century. Moreover, a 2.0 to 4.5ºC net global average 40. The institutional capacity including that of politi- surface warming is expected by the end of the present cal institutions is a key issue in developing comprehen- century (2090-2099). All of Asia will very likely have sive adaptation strategies. Recognizing that the needs problems with this warming trend during this century for adaptation might exceed their abilities in terms of (Christensen et al. 2007). Increases in the amount of knowledge and resources, it is important that a combi- precipitation are very likely in high-latitudes, while de- nation of approaches, both technical and political, are creases are likely in most subtropical land regions, con- used to ensure that the potential negative impacts are tinuing observed patterns in recent trends (Christensen minimized. et al. 2007).

This is especially true with regard to their assets and Glaciers in Central Asia, Western Mongolia, North-West production systems. The focus should be on prevent- China, and the Tibetan Plateau are reportedly melting ing impacts as much as possible rather than reacting to faster in recent years than ever before (Pu et al. 2004). what has happened. Hence, this study recommends five Consequently, glacial runoff and the frequency of gla- guidelines. cial lake outbursts causing mudflows and avalanches have increased (Bhadra 2002; Rai 2005). Changes have (1) Awareness creation at all levels as a first step in sen- also been observed in extreme climate events like fre- sitizing the global community and local communities on quent occurrence of more intense rainfall, increasing need to tackle climate change. frequency and intensity of floods, drought, and tropical cyclones. Regions of Asia such as South Asia, East (2) The need to promote mitigation activities even in Asia, and South-East Asia will experience an increase developing countries because the best way to adapt in in occurrence of extreme weather events (Cruz et al. future is to minimize the impacts. 2007).

(3) Everywhere, but especially for poor countries, adap- Based on regional HadRM2 simulations, Unnikrishnan tation must be implemented and strengthened as much et al. (2006) expect with rising greenhouse gases an in- as possible to avoid loss of assets and means of liveli- creasing trend in the frequency as well as intensities of hood. Based on the UNFCCC principles of common but tropical cyclones by the 2050s in the Bay of Bengal. This

191 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS would cause more heavy precipitation in the surround- access (Afghanistan and Korea DPR), or severe localized ing coastal regions of South Asia during both southwest food insecurity (Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, Nepal, and northeast monsoon seasons. Furthermore, a general Sri Lanka, Timore-Leste and Vietnam). Except in conflict warming of 2 to 4°C in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) prone Afghanistan, Iraq and Sri Lanka, natural catastro- is projected to increase tropical cyclone intensities by 10 phes have played the most decisive role in undermining to 20 percent in East Asia, South-East Asia, and South their food security. Recent high global cereals price have Asia (Knutson and Tuleya 2004). also generated widespread increases in domestic food prices of the Asian LFDC‘s. (FAO 2008a). 42. The FAR of the IPCC projects an increased risk of hunger in South Asia due to a 30 percent decline in ce- 44. Reflecting knowledge on projected impacts of cli- real yields. That might cause the effect that 266 million mate change on different sectors would allow to the Asians may face the risk of hunger in 2080. A decline identification of likely priority actions on adaptation of the net productivity of grassland and milk yields is from a top-down perspective. Initiated and supported predicted. The agricultural water demand will increase by the UNFCCC process, LDCs in Asia and elsewhere between 6 and 10 percent per 1°C rise in temperature. have started or even finished elaborating on National The water system might be strongly affected. Overall, Adaptation Programs of Action (NAPAs). The guidelines there a decline in water availability is expected. Close agreed upon under the UNFCCC specifically underline to 1 billion people will be affected by that reduction the objective to identify and address the most urgent ad- in India and South Asia. The melting of the Himalaya aptation needs and priority projects. In principle, these Glaciers will change the pattern of river runoff in the should be developed in a participatory process (UNFCCC region. In coastal areas, the water quality might suffer 2001). However, these guidelines are much less con- from the intrusion of salt water, which might then also crete than the procedural elements from the FAO vol- affect fish larvae abundance. Bangladesh (3), Vietnam untary guidelines on the implementation of the right to (4) and India (7) are 10 of the most affected countries adequate food as introduced above. Nevertheless, these by extreme weather effects in the decadal Climate Risk NAPAs serve as the best and most recent starting point Index (CRI) for 1997-2006 (Harmeling 2007). when looking at adaptation priorities. They also provide reference when assessing likely costs of adaptation, al- In the future, food scarcity projections for South and though it has to be repeated that they only concern the South-East Asia are highly vulnerable with high confi- most urgent adaptation needs. dence, while East Asia is highly vulnerable with a very high degree of confidence (Cruz et al. 2007). The dense- 45. There are a number of barriers which still need to ly populated mega deltas of Asia and relevant megacities be removed to allow for better and faster increases in (e.g. Bangkok, Shanghai, Tianjin), are vulnerable to both adaptive capacity. The prevailing level of poverty can be direct effects of climate change and sea-level rise (Cruz judged as the largest barrier to developing the capacity et al. 2007). 2,500 km2 of mangroves in Asia are likely to cope and adapt. The poor usually have a very low to be lost with 1 meter of sea-level rise. Approximately adaptive capacity due to their limited access to informa- 1,000 km2 of cultivated land and sea product cultur- tion, technology, and other capital assets which make ing area in Bangladesh are likely to become salt marsh them highly vulnerable to climate change (Cruz et al. (Cruz et al. 2007). 2007). Adaptive capacity in countries where there is a high incidence of poverty will likely remain limited. 43. 37 countries, 10 of which are in Asia, are currently Furthermore, Cruz et al. (2007, 492 conclude that facing food crises and require external assistance (FAO 2008a). Those countries lack of ability to deal with „insufficient information and knowledge on critical problems of food security due to an exceptional the impacts of climate change and responses shortfall in food production (Iraq), widespread lack of of natural systems to climate change will likely

192 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS continue to hinder effective adaptation particu- poor agricultural development should be given a very larly in Asia“. high priority.

46. Easterling et al. (2007) infer with high confidence (6) Food deficit countries should establish mechanisms, that smallholder and subsistence farmers, pastoralists, either individually or collectively, with neighboring and artisanal fisher folk will suffer complex, localized countries to form an emergency food bank, which may impacts of climate change. Climate change may affect be mobilized in case food is not available from interna- the poor through changes or depletion in common prop- tional sources following a shock. erty resources, such as fisheries, rangelands, or forests, which they depend on for their livelihoods. Successful (7) Coastal infrastructure should be built in order to face adaptation strategies have find strategies to support mar- onslaughts of extreme events (such as dams, cyclone ginalized people most vulnerable to the impact of cli- shelters) with the support from emitting countries. mate change. They are marginalized through all forms of discrimination i.e. by geographic, social, production 11.7.3 Latin America specific, political, and gender processes. 48. As in other continents the yields of crops can in- 47. The following recommendations for the situations crease in temperate climates, while in dryer regions it in Asia are championed by this study. is expected that climate change will foster processes of salinisation and the available area for crop land as (1) Most vulnerable countries like Bangladesh must de- well as for grazing land will shrink (Magrin et. al 2007). velop policy coherence in the struggle to adapt to and Land use changes have occurred during the last years fight against climate change. Therefore it is necessary and have intensified the use of natural resources and to link climate change policy with all development sec- exacerbate many of the processes of land degradation. tors and sub-sectors (e.g. land, food, agriculture, trade, The IPCC reports that almost three-quarter of the dry energy etc.) under a comprehensive National Climate lands are moderately or severely affected by degradation Change Policy. processes.

(2) Effective global mechanisms should be developed to 49. Climate variability and extreme events have se- ensure funds and incentive structures under the UN for verely affected Latin America. The number of extreme climate-coping initiatives by poor countries. events, be it hurricanes, flooding, or Amazonian drought (2005), has been high during the past few years. But the (3) Global food production should be increased by us- regular parameters are also changing. Increases in rain- ing suitable technology, and potential agricultural lands fall have been observed in South-East Brazil, Uruguay, should support smallholders and help them to increase the Argentinean Pampa, and some parts of Bolivia. their productivity. While this has increased the flood frequency, it has also positively impacted crop yields. On the other hand, a (4) Vulnerable people should be empowered and ena- declining trend in precipitation has been observed in bled to adapt to climate change by building resilience southern Chile, South-West Argentina, southern Peru, through investments in social protection, health, educa- and western Central America. As a consequence of tem- tion, insurance and other measures. perature increasing, the IPCC notes that the trend in glacial retreat is accelerating, with the exception of the (5) In countries experiencing potential food deficits southern Andean region. This issue is critical to Peru, under climate change, local policy such as establishing Bolivia, Colombia, and Ecuador, where water availabil- social safety nets and associated programs aimed at the ity has already been compromised for both consumption creation of access to food should be given priority. Pro- or for hydro-power generation. It is expected (Magrin et

193 Climate Change I Study 02 ANALYSIS al. 2007) that the net increase of people experiencing 52. The IPCC summarizes that a number of constraints water stress due to climate change is likely to increase of different natures are to be observed in this region re- from 7 to 77 million. The number of people experienc- lated to the adaptation capacity. These constraints might ing water stress will increase more in the second half to dampen stakeholders’ and decision makers’ capacities the century. to achieve policy efficacy and economic efficiency for adapting to climate change. Socio-economic and politi- 50. Climate change increases the risk that major parts cal factors compromise the limited availability of credit of the Amazon could change from tropical rain forest to and technical assistance as well as the low public in- savannas in coming decades. This risk is higher in the vestment in infrastructure in rural areas. This hinders eastern Amazon and in the tropical forests of central the implementation of adaptive options in the agricul- and southern Mexico. This could go hand in hand with tural sector, particularly for small producers. In addition, the replacement of semi-arid vegetation by arid vegeta- the poor appreciation of risk, lack of technology, inad- tion in parts of North-East Brazil and most of central and equate education, public health services, inappropriate northern Mexico. It would be a result of both land-use monitoring, and incomplete information are important and climate change. constraints to adaptation to current climate trends. The huge inequality in access to productive resources might 51. Support for smallholder farmers is reduced across lead to adaptation schemes that are oriented to support Latin America. Many of these farmers have been moved and help huge land entities and plantations adapt to to agricultural areas at the fringe of difficult environ- climate change. The situation will not become easier ments, on steep hills, or in areas that might become for smallholder farmers and landless laborers. A rights- totally dry. This group is likely to be very much affected based adaptation policy could help to identify the vul- by climate change, particularly because they are often nerable groups described above and to help focus na- missing household coping capacity. tional adaptation policies on those most in need. The role of safety nets for consumers in order to cope with Another group that will be affected are landless labor- increasing prices for food and water will be of particular ers. They must buy agricultural products on local and importance in Latin America. regional markets and will be affected by higher prices for basic staple foods. Latin America is the continent with the highest rate of urbanization. Urban squatters are directly dependent on food and water prices. Almost 13.9 percent of the Latin American population (71,5 million) has no access to safe water supply. 63 percent live in rural areas (Magrin et al. 2007, 597).

Many rural communities rely on limited freshwater resources. Many others rely on rainwater or use water- cropping methods which are vulnerable to drought. The number of people living in water-stressed watershed areas is going to increase by 12 to 81 million in 2020 and 79-178 million in 2050, depending on which IPCC emission scenario you choose. Other groups affected by climate change will be those living in cost-lines with mangroves, such as in Ecuador. Sea level rise is expected to affect particularly low coastal areas in Central America and the Caribbean.

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