Climate Change, Food Security and the Right to Adequate Food

02 Climate Change I Study ANALYSIS Climate Change, Food Security and the Right to Adequate Food Imprint Published by: Diakonisches Werk der EKD e.V. for „Bread for the World“ and „Diakonie Katastrophenhilfe“ Stafflenbergstraße 76 D-70784 Stuttgart Phone: ++49 (711) 2159-0 E-Mail: [email protected], [email protected] www.brot-fuer-die-welt.de www.diakonie-katastrophenhilfe.de Germanwatch e.V. Kaiserstr. 201 D-53113 Bonn Phone ++49 (228) 60492-0 E-mail: [email protected] www.germanwatch.org Art. Nr.: 122 114 020 Authors: Christoph Bals, Sven Harmeling, Michael Windfuhr, with contributions from Stephen O. Anyango (Department of Environmental Science, Kenyatta University, Kenya) and Victor Orindi (International Development Research Centre, Kenya), Ferdausur Rahman, Mizanur Rahman Bijoy, Nusrat Habib (alle Network on Climate Change, Bangladesch), Umme Kulsum (Climate Change Focal Point, Prodipan) Editorial Staff: Thomas Hirsch, Hannah Bent, Dr. Klaus Seitz Layout: Jörg Jenrich, Katrin Gottwald Responsible: Thomas Sandner Cover Photo: Christoph Püschner Printing: Printed on recycled paper Stuttgart, October 2008 Climate Change, Food Security and the Right to Adequate Food Christoph Bals (Germanwatch) Sven Harmeling (Germanwatch) Michael Windfuhr (Brot für die Welt) Contents Tables 8 Figures 10 Abbreviations 11 Foreword 15 Executive summary 17 Introduction 21 Part I Climate change and food insecurity 1 Climate change and food security – the development of the debate 24 1.1 General observations 24 1.2 The initial FAO debate: optimism on climate change and food security 25 1.3 From optimism to acknowledging climate change risks 26 1.4 A two-dimensional response is needed: avoiding dangerous climate change and adapting to the unavoidable 27 1.4.1 Avoiding dangerous climate change: limit global warming to below 2°C 28 1.4.2 Scenarios of different climate futures 32 1.5 Adaptation to the unavoidable consequences 34 1.6 Climate change and development 39 2 Trends and developments in food insecurity and hunger 42 2.1 Three levels of food security definition: global, national, and household food security 42 2.2 Who are the hungry today 44 2.3 Marginalization of producers: a problem of development policies 48 2.4 Trends on world agricultural markets and agricultural prices 52 2.5 Food security compared with other concepts: food sovereignty, right to food 57 2.6 Content of the right to adequate food 58 2.7 Standards of governance under the right to food 60 2.8 Climate change and vulnerabilities for food insecurity 62 2.9 International obligations in the right to food debate and under the UNFCCC 66 3 Relevant trends in climate change 70 Contents 3.1 Increasing variability 72 3.2 Extreme weather events 73 3.3 Moving of climate zones and other ecosystem impacts of climate change 77 3.4 Tipping elements – large-scale risks in the earth system 79 3.5 Effects on food production, agriculture and water, forest and fishing resources 84 3.5.1 Effects on food production and agriculture 84 3.5.2 Effects on forests 87 3.5.3 Effects on fisheries 89 3.5.4 Effects on pasture and livestock production 90 3.5.5 Effects on water resources 91 3.5.6 Effects on health and nutrition 92 3.5.7 Effects on food insecurity 94 3.6 Most affected: rural livelihoods - subsistence and smallholder agriculture 97 Part II Response capacity to climate change – nationally and internationally 4 Response capacity in developing countries 99 4.1 Dimensions of the problem 100 4.1.1 Adaptation 100 4.1.2 Response capacity 105 4.2 Climate information and climate science 106 4.3 Climate-related insurance approaches 109 4.4 Response capacity at the national level 112 4.4.1 Financial resources needed 112 4.4.2 Assessment of adaptation policies 114 4.4.3 Adaptation measures 116 4.5 Response capacity to problems at the local and household level 118 4.6 Human rights set standards for adequate government responses 123 Contents 5 Impacts on global food security and response capacity at the international level 126 5.1 Impacts on global food security 126 5.2 Options to increase production 127 5.3 Agriculture – increasing productivity or global warming? 129 5.4 Response capacity in development cooperation 132 5.5 Response capacity in intergovernmental organisations 135 6 Climate change and poverty – economics of adaptation 138 6.1 Climate change, the MDGs and development prospects 138 6.2 Financial aspects of adaptation to climate change: assessing costs and benefits 139 6.3 Current financing for adaptation 143 6.4 Principles for adaptation financing and future instruments 147 Part III Regional studies on climate change impacts, food security and response capacity 7 Research results for Africa 150 7.1 Effects of climate change on food production, agriculture and water availability 150 7.1.1 Changes in climatic conditions 150 7.1.2 The state of food insecurity in Africa 151 7.1.3 Effects on food production, agriculture, water, forests, fish and livestock 153 7.2 Adaptation – experiences and priorities 157 7.3 Responses and capacity 159 7.3.1 Vulnerable communities 159 7.3.2 Political and institutional capacity 162 7.4 Advocacy and policy recommendations 162 8 Research results for Asia 164 8.1 Effects of climate change on food production, agriculture and water availability 164 8.1.1 Changes in climatic conditions 164 Contents 8.1.2 Effects on food production, agriculture, water, forests, fish, and livestock 164 8.1.3 Hot spots and countries at risk 166 8.2 Adaptation needs 167 8.2.1 Adaptation priorities 167 8.2.2 Barriers to adaptation 167 8.3 Responses and capacity 170 8.3.1 Development, poverty, and human rights implications 170 8.3.2 Marginalization, consumption and hunger 170 8.3.3 Most vulnerable groups 170 8.3.4 National/Government response (Bangladesh) 172 8.3.5 Civil society response 173 8.4 Advocacy and policy recommendations 173 9 Research results for Latin America 174 Part IV The way forward: conclusions 10 Conclusion: elements of a rights-based strategy 175 11 Conclusion and recommen dations: climate change, food security and human rights 181 11.1 Climate change, vulnerabilities, and groups at risk 182 11.2 Relevant trends in climate change 184 11.3 Response capacities to climate change – nationally and internationally 186 11.4 Response capacity at the local and community level 187 11.5 Response capacity at the international level 188 11.6 Climate change and development 188 11.7 Regional perspectives for climate change and food security 189 11.7.1 Africa 190 11.7.2 Asia 191 11.7.3 Latin America 193 References 196 Tables Table 1: Likelihood of various CO2 equivalent concentrations exceeding various increases in global mean surface temperature in percent 30 Table 2: EU emission reduction proposals and its implications for global temperature increase 35 Table 3: Additional costs of adaptation in developing countries 35 Table 4: Typology of hunger 46 Table 5: Net importers of petroleum products and major grains as a percent of domestic apparent consumption – ranked by prevalence of undernourishment 53 Table 6: Forecast import bills of total food and major food commodities (USD million) 54 Table 7: Determinants of rural household vulnerabilities 63 Table 8: Global percentage shares of population, income, capacity, cumulative emissions, responsibility and RCI (combined Responsibility and Capability Index) for selected countries and groups of countries 68 Table 9: Examples of major projected impacts of climate change 71 Table 10: Quantified impacts of selected African droughts on livestock, 1981 to 1999 75 Table 11: Ten countries most affected by a 1 meter sea-level rise 83 Table 12: Impacts of climate change and socio-economic development paths on the number of people at risk for hunger in developing countries 96 Table 13: A typology of adaptive responses: examples from food production and food security 101 Table 14: Synergies between the MDGs and climate interventions 103 Table 15: Adaptation measures in key vulnerable sectors highlighted in national communications of developing countries 117 Table 16: Examples of adaptation responses according to different ecosystems 119 Table 17: Examples of adaptation options by poverty category 121 Table 18: Policy options for the design of local adaptation policies 122 Table 19: Best practices of climate change mitigation in agriculture 130 Table 20: Progress and challenges ahead in mainstreaming adaptation, as identified by the Development Assistance Committee of the OECD 133 Table 21: Estimated additional investment and financial flows needed for adaptation in 2030 139 Table 22: Ten countries most affected by absolute and relative economic losses from extreme weather events in 2006 142 Table 23: Observed changes in precipitation in parts of Africa 151 Table 24: Hunger in Africa and the developing world 152 Tables Table 25: Some examples of complex adaptations already observed in Africa in response to climate and other stresses 156 Table 26: Overview of NAPA priority projects as submitted by African LDCs 158 Table 27: Suggestions to improve responding to climate change 161 Table 28: Projected impacts of climate change in Asia 165 Table 29: Hotspots in Asia 166 Table 30: Critical vulnerable areas/hotspots with most impacted sectors in Bangladesh 168 Table 31: Priority activities of adaptation and their costs as identified in NAPAs from selected Asian LDCs 169 Figures Figure 1: A double response to climate change 28 Figure 2: Selected global impacts from warming associated with various reductions in global greenhouse gas

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