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GEOPOLITICS of RUSSIA's CAUCASUS POLICY and ITS IMPLICATIONS for the WORLD a Master's Thesis by GÖKHAN TEKIR Department Of GEOPOLITICS OF RUSSIA’S CAUCASUS POLICY AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE WORLD A Master’s Thesis by GÖKHAN TEKIR Department of International Relations İhsan Doğramacı Bilkent University Ankara May 2014 GEOPOLITICS OF RUSSIA’S CAUCASUS POLICY AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE WORLD Graduate School of Economics and Social Sciences of İhsan Doğramacı Bilkent University by GÖKHAN TEKİR In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF ARTS in THE DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS İHSAN DOĞRAMACI BİLKENT UNIVERSITY ANKARA May 2014 I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope and in quality, as a thesis for the degree of Master of Arts in International Relations. -------------------------------------------- Prof. Norman Stone Supervisor I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope and in quality, as a thesis for the degree of Master of Arts in International Relations. --------------------------------------------- Assist. Prof. Ioannis N. Grigoriadis Examining Committee Member I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope and in quality, as a thesis for the degree of Master of Arts in International Relations. --------------------------------------------- Assist. Prof. Paul Andrew Williams Examining Committee Member Approval of the Graduate School of Economics and Social Sciences --------------------------------------------- Prof. Dr. Erdal Erel Director ABSTRACT GEOPOLITICS OF RUSSIA’S CAUCASUS POLICY AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE WORLD Tekir, Gökhan M.A., Department of International Relations Thesis Supervisor: Prof. Norman Stone May, 2014 This thesis examines an overlooked region in the discipline of international relations, the Caucasus. The collapse of the Soviet Union caused the independence of Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia, which comprise the South Caucasus. The North Caucasus remained under the control of the Russian Federation but the Russian Federation had to deal with separatist movements in the North Caucasus. Despite military and economic costs, Russia tries to hold on the region. The withdrawal of Russian rule from the South Caucasus led to the belief that newly established republics would join to the Western camp immediately. The South Caucasus emerged as a big energy prize for the European Union, which wants to diversify its energy transportation routes. However, regional conflicts and Russian presence, which increased gradually has prevented this opportunity. Russia has managed to establish a dominant presence in the region. This study claims that Russia’s Caucasus policy rests upon geopolitical considerations. Russia ensures that the Caucasus will remain under its sphere of influence in order to provide its security and reestablish its great power status in international arena. Russia’s goals in the region are frequently challenged by external powers. In order to maintain its hegemonic position in the region, Russia struggles with other external powers. Key Words: Geopolitics, Russian policy, The Caucasus, Energy iii ÖZET RUSYA’NIN KAFKASYA POLİTİKASININ JEOPOLİTİĞİ VE DÜNYA ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ Tekir, Gökhan Yüksek Lisans, Uluslararası İlişkiler Bölümü Tez Danışmanı: Prof. Norman Stone Mayıs 2014 Bu tez uluslararası ilişkiler alanında ihmal edilmiş bir bölge olan Kafkasya’yı incelemektedir. Sovyetler Birliği’nin çöküşü Güney Kafkasya’yı oluşturan Gürcistan, Azerbaycan ve Ermenistan’ın bağımsızlıklarına neden olmuştur. Kuzey Kafkasya Rusya Federasyonu’nun bir parçası olarak kalmış fakat Rusya Federasyonu Kuzey Kafkasya’da ayrılıkçı hareketlerle uğraşmak zorunda kalmıştır. Ekonomik ve askeri bedellere rağmen Rusya bu bölgedeki varlığını devam ettirmektedir. Güney Kafkasya’daki Rus yönetiminin çekilmesi yeni bağımsızlıklarını kazanmış ülkelerin Batı kampına dahil olacakları inancını doğurdu. Güney Kafkasya, enerji yollarında çeşitlilik sağlama amacında olan Avrupa Birliği için büyük bir enerji merkezi olarak ortaya çıktı. Fakat, bölgesel çatışmalar ve bölgede düzenli olarak artan Rus varlığı bu fırsatın gerçekleşmesini engelledi. Rusya Kafkasya’da baskın bir görünüm kurmayı başardı. Bu çalışma, Rusya’nın Kafkasya politikasının jeopolitik temelli olduğunu iddia etmektedir. Rusya, kendi güvenliğini sağlamak ve uluslararası arenada büyük güç statüsünü tekrar inşa etmek için Kafkasya’nın kendi etki sahası içinde kalmasına özen göstermektedir. Rusya’nın bölgedeki amaçları sıklıkla diğer dış oyuncular tarafından engellenmektedir. Rusya bölgedeki hegemon pozisyonu devam ettirmek için diğer güçlerle mücadele etmektedir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Jeopolitik, Rusya politikası, Kafkasya, Enerji iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I am indebted to the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TÜBİTAK) for financial support that it provided me during my graduate study. I express my sincere appreciation to my advisor Prof. Dr. Norman Stone for his guidance, support and encouragement during thesis process. I express my gratitude to jury members Dr. Ioannis Grigoriadis and Dr. Paul Andrew Williams for the valuable comments and insights that they provided. I am also grateful for Senior Lecturer Onur Gökçe who assigned me academic tasks which developed my academic skills. Lastly, I would like to thank my family who has supported me throughout my life. v TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................................... iii ÖZET................................................................................................................................. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................... v TABLE OF CONTENTS .................................................................................................. vi LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................... viii LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................... ix CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................... 1 1. 1. Research Question .................................................................................................. 3 1. 2. Hypothesis .............................................................................................................. 4 1. 3. Theoretical Framework .......................................................................................... 4 1. 4. Methodology .......................................................................................................... 5 CHAPTER 2: GEOPOLITICS ........................................................................................... 7 2. 1. Russian Geopolitics .............................................................................................. 13 CHAPTER 3: RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY CONCEPT, MILITARY AND SECURITY DOCTRINES ............................................................................................... 20 3. 1. Foreign Policy Concept ........................................................................................ 20 3. 2. Military Doctrines of the Russian Federation ...................................................... 22 3. 3. Security Doctrines of the Russian Federation ...................................................... 25 CHAPTER 4: THE GEOPOLITICS OF THE CAUCASUS ........................................... 28 4. 1. Geographical Position of the Caucasus ................................................................ 28 4. 2. Ethnic Composition of the Caucasus .................................................................... 31 4. 3. Oil and Natural Gas Resources of the Caucasus .................................................. 33 vi 4. 4. Pipelines in the Caucasus ..................................................................................... 37 4. 4. 1. Oil Pipelines ............................................................................................... 38 4. 4. 2. Gas Pipelines .............................................................................................. 42 4. 5. Analysis on the Geopolitics of the Caucasus ....................................................... 43 CHAPTER 5: RUSSIA’S SOUTH CAUCASUS POLICY ............................................ 46 5. 1. Russia-Armenia Relations .................................................................................... 49 5. 2. Russia-Azerbaijan Relations ................................................................................ 54 5. 3. Russia-Georgia Relations ..................................................................................... 62 CHAPTER 6: RUSSIA’S NORTH CAUCASUS POLICY ............................................ 74 CHAPTER 7: RUSSIAN ENERGY POLICY ................................................................. 86 CHAPTER 8: OTHER EXTERNAL POWERS IN THE CAUCASUS ......................... 99 8. 1. Regional Powers ................................................................................................. 100 8. 1. 1. Turkey ....................................................................................................... 100 8. 1. 2. Iran ............................................................................................................ 108 8. 2. Extra-Regional Powers ......................................................................................
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