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Home , Borough of Spelthorne, Shepperton

RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH

FOCUS ON: PARSONSSTAINES-UPON- GREEN 2016 THAMES 2018

AFFORDABILITY SUPPLY VS DEMAND COMMUTER LOCATION COMPARISON FIGURE 1 Price growth in Spelthorne, , ALL IN THE NAME South East, and UK Prices indexed 100 = Jan 2013 Over the last 10 years Staines has been rejuvenated, culminating in a name change to Staines-upon-Thames Spelthorne South East Surrey London in 2012. 160 Situated in the of Spelthorne in commuter belt. In comparison, it might 150 Surrey, in close proximity to Heathrow be argued that Staines-upon-Thames is 140 Airport, the M25 and the M4 Corridor, a relatively undervalued market given its Staines-upon-Thames forms part of geographical location. 130 the Enterprise M3 Local Economic Partnership, the UK’s digital economy However, there are signs that this is 120 hub employing over 50,000 workers. starting to change. During the twelve months to September 2017, house prices On top of a burgeoning local economy, 110 in Staines-upon-Thames increased Staines-upon-Thames is surrounded by 6.6%, outpacing growth of 3% 100 by some of the most expensive real estate in the UK outside of London across Surrey. Despite this recent 90 (figure 2). Towns such as , outperformance, average house prices 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Walton-on-Thames, Windsor and in Staines-upon-Thames remain around Source: Knight Frank Research, Land Registry, form part of London’s prime 23% below the Surrey average. Macrobond

FIGURE 2 Average sale price in the last 12 months Average Sale Price Windsor Year to Oct 2017 )" Heathrow Sub £250,000 Airport £250,000 - £500,000 £500,000 - £1,000,000 £1,000,000 - £2,500,000 £2,500,000 - £5,000,000 £5,000,000+ Staines-upon-Thames )" Virginia Water

Walton-on-Thames )"

Weybridge

Woking

)" Source: Land registry

Contains OS data © Crown Copyright and database right 2017 2 Please refer to the important notice at the end of this report FOCUS ON: STAINES-UPON-THAMES

the Ministry for Housing, Communities Commuter belt affordability FIGURE 3 and Local Government (figure 5). The Spelthorne also has a lower house price House price to earnings ratio number of households in Spelthorne is to household income ratio – a common House price to household income ratio forecast to climb 24% to 52,000 by 2039 measure of affordability – than the wider according to official projections. Surrey, South East and markets. The average home costs 7.6 times Staines-upon-Thames has 756 private Spelthorne’s median annual income, units in the development pipeline, according to analysis of Experian and according to Glenigan. Two schemes Land Registry data, as shown in figure 3. exceed 200 units, and are located on This may be one factor attracting greater the High Street and Bridge Street. numbers of Londoners to the town. Data Demand for new homes in Spelthorne from the Office for National Statistics has been boosted by the Help to (ONS) show 58% of residents moving to Buy Equity Loan scheme, which has Spelthorne were from London in 2016, accounted for 144 sales since its up from 51% in 2013. inception in April 2013. We expect this 7.6x 8.3x 8.0x 9.5x 7.7x The private rented sector is the fastest trend to continue in the new homes growing tenure type across the UK, sales market. and accounts for a fifth of the housing Spelthorne Surrey South East London England stock in Staines-upon-Thames (figure Connectivity Source: Experian, Land Registry 6). Demand for rented accommodation Heathrow Airport and the air freight comes mainly from young professionals sector are two of the largest local FIGURE 4 and students at the Royal Holloway employers in Staines-upon-Thames, Housing stock by age University in , home to more with over 6,000 employees of Staines-upon-Thames than 9,000 students, Mosaic household Heathrow Airport living in the borough analysis shows. of Spelthorne. Other large employers include BP, , 34.2% A lack of new homes British Gas and Wood Group Kenny. 30.8% As such, a considerable proportion of As a whole, the UK has an undersupply working residents in Staines commute 24.6% of new homes and Spelthorne is to neighbouring as opposed no exception. to central London. This is evidenced by There were 347 net additional dwellings commuting data from the ONS which delivered in the borough during 2016-17, shows that, of the 18,001 residents 10.4% falling well short of estimated demand. commuting to London boroughs, 54% Spelthorne needs 590 additional homes work in Hounslow and Hillingdon. a year if it is to satisfy the needs of the Around 10% commute into Westminster, Pre 1900 1900-1939 1945-1972 1973-Present growing local population, according to the and Tower Hamlets. Source: Knight Frank Research

FIGURE 5 Housing supply vs housing need

600

500

400

300

200

Net additional dwellings 100

0 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

Spelthorne net additional dwellings Spelthorne annual housing need, 2016-2026

Source: MHCLG

3 FOCUS ON: STAINES-UPON-THAMES RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH

However, the fundamentals are in place Meanwhile, from 2019, the Elizabeth less than 33 minutes and 40 minutes for Staines-upon-Thames to establish Line (Crossrail) will run from Reading away respectively. itself as a commuter location for the to Shenfield via central London, cutting Further ahead, proposals for a second journey times for millions of commuters. capital. The fastest trains into London Crossrail line, running from South Those living in and around Staines- Waterloo take 35 minutes, a commute upon-Thames will be within a 15 to 20 West London to North East London on a par with Weybridge and faster minute drive of three Crossrail stations (Crossrail 2), include a regional branch than nearby Windsor, Chertsey, Virginia at Iver, West Drayton and Hayes and from to Shepperton, which Water and Egham, as shown in figure 7. Harlington. Travel times to Bond Street would provide Staines-upon-Thames Annual rail season ticket prices are also will be reduced from 38 minutes to less with a fourth Crossrail station within lower than prices for similar tickets from than 26 minutes from the three stations, a 20 minute drive of the town centre. stations in the surrounding area. with Liverpool Street and Canary Wharf However, it is worth noting that Crossrail

FIGURE 6 Tenure in Staines-upon-Thames

ONED ONED ITH PRIATELY SOCIAL OUTRIGHT A MORTGAGE RENTED RENTED

2% 3% 203% 13%

Source: ONS

FIGURE 7 Commute and travel time comparison

STAINES-UPON-THAMES WEYBRIDGE WINDSOR CHERTSEY VIRGINIA WATER EGHAM

FASTEST TRAIN TO LONDON FASTEST TRAIN TO LONDON FASTEST TRAIN TO LONDON FASTEST TRAIN TO LONDON FASTEST TRAIN TO LONDON FASTEST TRAIN TO LONDON 35 MINS 32 MINS 29 MINS 53 MINS 45 MINS 41 MINS

SEASON TICKET PRICE SEASON TICKET PRICE SEASON TICKET PRICE SEASON TICKET PRICE SEASON TICKET PRICE SEASON TICKET PRICE £3,356 £3,824 £3,712 £3,824 £3,792 £3,584

DRIVE TIME TO DRIVE TIME TO DRIVE TIME TO DRIVE TIME TO DRIVE TIME TO DRIVE TIME TO CENTRAL LONDON CENTRAL LONDON CENTRAL LONDON CENTRAL LONDON CENTRAL LONDON CENTRAL LONDON 53 MINS 60 MINS 55 MINS 58 MINS 57 MINS 55 MINS

DRIVE TIME TO DRIVE TIME TO DRIVE TIME TO DRIVE TIME TO DRIVE TIME TO DRIVE TIME TO HEATHROW AIRPORT HEATHROW AIRPORT HEATHROW AIRPORT HEATHROW AIRPORT HEATHROW AIRPORT HEATHROW AIRPORT 9 MINS 16 MINS 14 MINS 14 MINS 12 MINS 10 MINS

4

STAINES-UPON-THAMES FASTEST TRAIN TO LONDON DRIVE TIME TO CENTRAL LONDON DRIVE TIME TO HEATHROW AIRPORT 37 MINS 1 HR 20 MINS 1 HR 20 MINS FOCUS ON: STAINES-UPON-THAMES RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH

2 is not expected to be operational until Valley Regional Park, a popular location at least 2030. for walkers, runners and cyclists.

The Elizabeth Line will help to attract The local schools are also a draw. In more businesses into the area, as will the there are 28 plans for the Windsor Link Railway, a schools, of which 22 are rated ‘good’ or privately funded £200 million projected ‘outstanding’ by Ofsted. There are also a that would provide a direct rail link from number of independents schools within Staines-upon-Thames to Heathrow a short drive of the town. Such a large Airport, as well as improving connectivity provision of quality schooling may appeal to Windsor, and Reading. The to young families looking to move out of line will potentially be in operation from 14.2% London in the search for more space. 2022, subject to planning. forecast house price growth – South East A local retail hub Outlook England, 2018-2022 The combination of affordability, Staines-upon-Thames shares a direct train link into London which takes characteristics with surrounding towns less than 40 minutes, a bustling high that form London’s prime commuter belt. Lining both banks of the River street, almost four miles of river frontage, Thames, the town has almost four proximity to green spaces and Heathrow miles of river frontage with homes, Airport will all continue to contribute and restaurants overlooking the towards Staines-upon-Thames becoming river, interspersed by clubs. an increasingly popular location for buyers The town is on the edge of the Colne from London and further afield.

KEY FACTS

South East house price forecast Home-ownership: 6., 2018-2022: 1.2 in line with UK average

Staines-upon-Thames Proposed 200m WindsorLink Average monthly rent, Private Rented Sector Stock development pipeline: Railway, providing a direct rail link to two bedroom flat: 1,201 20. 6 new homes Heathrow Airport from 2022

Fastest train to London .82 miles of river frontage 1 homes have been purchased est location in UK to aterloo: minutes in Staines-upon-Thames in Spelthorne since April 2013, start a business in 2014 via the Help to Buy Euity Loan scheme

2 Schools in Staines-upon-Thames net additional dwellings 20 minute drive to three o schools in Spelthorne rated rated outstanding were built in Spelthorne Crossrail stations from 201 good, very good or outstanding during 2016-2017

Source: Knight Frank Residential Research

5 KNIGHT FRANK INTELLIGENCE For the latest news, views and analysis on the world of prime property, visit KnightFrank.com/blog

RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH Gráinne Gilmore Head of UK Residential Research +44 20 7861 5102 [email protected] Patrick Gower Associate +44 20 3640 7015 [email protected]

LONDON RESIDENTIAL Seb Warner Partner +44 20 7861 5426 [email protected]

Matthew Goldsworthy Associate +44 20 7861 5440 [email protected]

RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT David Jones Partner +44 148 361 7937 [email protected] Charles Dugdale Partner +44 20 7861 5411 [email protected] Neil Haynes Partner +44 1494 689 226 [email protected]

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Headlines Dec 2017 UK HOUSE PRICE FORECAST The global perspective on prime property and investment UK house price growth has been UK house price growth has moderated from recent peaks, although LONDON slowing since the summer of 2014, markets remain highly localised. All our clients recognise the need for expert although the annual change remains positive The momentum in house price growth is observed in the prime housing markets in LONDON SUPER-PRIME LETTINGS INSIGHT SPRING 2018 slowing in many parts of the country, and London and beyond are set to continue, DEVELOPMENT Price growth across the UK is expected we expect price rises to remain muted and we explore this more fully in our blog. to be 1.0% in 2018, reaching 14.2% overall next year amid increased economic The UK may now be entering a period of Price sensitivity in the sales market meant there was a record number of super- cumulatively between 2018 and 2022 and political uncertainty in the run-up to interest rate rises, but even so, we expect prime tenancies in 2017. However, an anticipated recovery in sale prices means Brexit and amid more muted forecasts for rates to be low compared to long-term HOTSPOTS there are more ‘try-before-you-buy’ tenants, as Tom Smith tells Tom Bill wage growth. The market is localised and independent advice customised to their In London, prices are forecast to fall by norms by the end of the forecast period. RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT we see slightly stronger growth in the While development levels are rising across 0.5% in 2018, but cumulative price There was a record number of super-prime compared to 11 in 2016. “There is increasingly Midlands, East of England and the North the country, the shortage of new homes is OPPORTUNITY AREAS 2018 growth over the next five years is tenancies agreed in London in 2017 as price- the opportunity to rent the sort of high-quality West, a continuation of the trend that has unlikely to be fully reversed in the coming positive at 13.1% sensitivity in the sales market continued to boost stock that has come from the sales market that emerged this year. years, and that will underpin pricing. demand. historically did not exist on the lettings market,” Once the Brexit deal is completed, we On the other hand, factors such as said Tom. “The clear message for landlords is Prince Albert Road, let, guide price £12,000 p/w

THE WEALTH REPORT 2018 Some 137 properties were rented out at £5,000- forecast rising momentum across the deepening affordability pressures and that super-prime tenants will not compromise on plus per week last year, which represented a market, with price growth reflecting this in property taxes, will continue to weigh quality in the same way as buyers will not.” 34% increase on the figure of 102 in 2016. In the specific needs. many locations. The variations currently on pricing. three-month period between July and September The prime central London sales market is now there were 49 transactions, which is a record for a moving towards recovery mode as higher single quarter in 12 years of LonRes data. transaction costs are absorbed. Average prices 2017-2022 Forecasts, December 2017 “The momentum of recent years is still gathering above £10 million rose 0.2% in the year to 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018 - 2022 pace,” said Tom Smith, Knight Frank’s head of January 2018, the first annual increase in almost Mainstream residential sales markets super-prime lettings. “Demand is resilient due to two years. Kensington Palace Gardens, let, guide price £15,950 p/w UK 1.5% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 14.2% higher rates of stamp duty and the associated In a sign that more tenants are anticipating this uncertainty over the short-term prospects for London -1.0% -0.5% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 13.1% recovery, there has been an increase in the price growth in the sales market. A lack of clarity number who have requested a clause in the North East 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 14.8% regarding Brexit has also been a factor.” tenancy agreement giving them first refusal to Super-Prime Lettings Team North West 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.5% 16.4% As well as more transactions, the deals agreed buy at the end of the tenancy. The Knight Frank Super-Prime Lettings team Yorks & Humber 0.5% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 12.6% provides a bespoke service to clients with property are now on a longer-term basis as renting “This option was rarely mentioned a few years becomes more accepted as a tenure model in interests of £5,000-plus per week in prime central East Midlands 4.5% 2.0% 2.5% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 14.2% ago but is now a frequent topic of conversation the super-prime market, said Tom. The average London. Led by Tom Smith, the team consists of West Midlands 4.5% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 4.0% 14.8% on viewings. Many landlords have nothing to length of a tenancy in 2017 was 589 days, which 12 local specialists with over 130 years of collective lose with this ‘try-before-you-buy’ route,” says Methodology Statement: East 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% 15.9% compared to 548 in 2016 and 528 in 2015, an experience and has a dominant market share in Tom. “The worst case scenario is that you have House price forecasts are based upon time series South East 3.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 4.5% 14.2% analysis of Knight Frank data shows. London. It completed twice as many super-prime regression analysis of relevant statistically significant an income stream that covers your costs and macro-economic variables adjusted in-house to lettings deals in London as its nearest competitor South West 4.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.5% 3.5% 4.5% 14.2% There was also a record number of £15,000- the best is that you also have a sale at the other encompass externalities such as likely risk factors. in 2017, LonRes data shows. The team members The forecast uses the Nationwide House Price Index Wales 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.0% 4.0% 13.1% plus per week deals last year, with 20 recorded end.” as a base. Our forecasts assume a Brexit deal, but are based in Belgravia, Belsize Park, Chelsea, with a two year transitional period. Scotland 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 2.5% 3.5% 3.5% 12.0% Hampstead, Hyde Park, Kensington, Knightsbridge, FIGURE 1 Marylebone, Mayfair, Notting Hill, South Kensington London super-prime lettings volumes and rental values Prime residential sales markets and St John’s Wood. Knight Frank’s global real Prime central London east 0.0% 0.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.0% 5.0% 13.1% Total Transactions Average weekly rent Maximum weekly rent estate network gives the team access to London’s Prime central London west 0.0% 0.5% 1.5% 3.5% 3.0% 3.5% 12.6% 50 most exclusive properties on and off the market. £45,000 £45,000 “ The market is localised and £35,000 Prime outer London -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.5% 4.5% 12.5% 40 £30,000 £30,000 £29,000 £25,000 we see slightly stronger £18,500 £20,000 Prime England & Wales 0.7% 1.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 9.9% £16,800 £15,000 £13,500 growth in the Midlands, 30 Tom Smith Residential rental markets 20 £10,000 East of England and the Head of Super-Prime North West, a continuation UK 1.2% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 3.0% 3.0% 14.0% 10 £8,000 Lettings [email protected] of the trend that has London 0.7% 3.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 15.0% 0 £6,000 +44 20 7881 7730 2018 emerged this year.” Prime central London -1.5% 0.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.0% 3.0% 11.0% 12th Edition For the latest news, views and analysis Prime outer London -3.5% -1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 8.0% Q1-2015 Q2-2015 Q3-2015 Q4-2015 Q1-2016 Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 on the world of prime property, visit Source: Knight Frank Research PRICE FORECASTS our blog or @kfintelligence NB. Price forecasts are for existing homes. Property values in the new-build market may perform differently. Source: Knight Frank Research / LonRes AREAS TO WATCH MARKET UPDATE The Wealth Report UK Housing Market London London Super London Development 2018 Forecast - Dec 2017 Prime Lettings 2018 Hotspots 2018 Important Notice

DEVELOPMENT CONSULTANCY RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH © Knight Frank LLP 2018 – This report is published RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH for general information only and not to be relied upon in MULTIHOUSING 2017 LONDON PRS RESEARCH any way. Although high standards have been used in DEVELOPMENT CROSSRAIL DESIGN STUDY ANALYSING PROPERTY MARKET PERFORMANCE RETIREMENT ALONG THE ELIZABETH LINE 2017 the preparation of the information, analysis, views and SPRING 2017 HOUSING MARKET UPDATE Q1 2018 projections presented in this report, no responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by Knight Frank LLP for any loss or damage resultant from any use of, reliance on or reference to the contents of this document. As a general report, this material does not necessarily represent the view of Knight Frank LLP in relation to particular properties or projects. Reproduction of this report in whole

HOW HAVE PRICES SUPPLY AND DEMAND FUNDING MODELS POLICY FOCUS SECTOR UPDATE LOOKING TO THE FUTURE: DEVELOPMENT TENANT SURVEY 2017: RESULTS INVESTOR INTENTIONS PERFORMED? CROSSRAIL 2 PIPELINE or in part is not allowed without prior written approval of The UK Tenant London Development Crossrail 2017 UK Retirement Housing Knight Frank LLP to the form and content within which it Survey 2017 Design Study 2017 Market Update Q1 2018 appears. Knight Frank LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England with registered number OC305934. Our registered office is 55 Baker Street, London, W1U 8AN, Knight Frank Research Reports are available at KnightFrank.com/Research where you may look at a list of members’ names.