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CONTENT We Explore How Old Questions Are Tackled with New Technology NOTE FROM THE GUEST EDITOR In the Spring/Summer 2019 issue, CONTENT we explore how old questions are tackled with new technology. In recent years we have witnessed unprecedented technological progress— INTERVIEW WITH such as digitalization, automation, GITA GOPINATH machine learning, and big data— New Director of the and its applications for everyday life. At the same time, Research Department we are seeing a remarkable slowdown in global economic activity after a few years of steady upswing. Policy and YUKO HASHIMOTO political uncertainties in many parts of the world remain high, while challenges such as climate change loom over the longer horizon. The time is right for policymakers to TECHNOLOGICAL work cooperatively both nationally and internationally CHANGE AND THE to help ward off downside risks and ensure effective FUTURE OF WORK policy support. The Impact on How will policymakers tackle reemerging yet long-standing Africa and the G20 economic issues, such as productivity, market failure, ADRIAN PERALTA-ALVA and resource allocation? What insights do new data and AXEL SCHIMMELPFENNIG methodologies offer? The articles in this issue discuss the many ways technological progress and increased data availability have helped, as well as remaining challenges IS MISALLOCATION REALLY to making the best use of new technologies for analysis MISMEASUREMENT? and judgment. In this way, policy can be evidence-based, When Models Meet proactively address risks and vulnerabilities, and lead to the Micro Data sustainable growth. ~Yuko Hashimoto CIAN RUANE IMF RESEARCH THE POWER OF TEXT perspectives Measuring Sentiment in Financial Markets Editors-in-Chief Contributors Deniz Igan Christian Bogmans DAMIEN PUY Chris Papageorgiou Adrian Peralta-Alva Damien Puy Guest Editor Cian Ruane Yuko Hashimoto Axel Schimmelpfennig Yuko Hashimoto OUR COMMON Assistant Editor ENERGY FUTURE Patricia Loo Cover, design, and layout CSF Creative What Do 167 Years Editorial Assistant of Data Say? Tracey Lookadoo CHRISTIAN BOGMANS IMF Research Perspectives—the IMF online bulletin with news on research is a bi-annual publication in English and is available exclusively online free of charge. The views expressed in the Bulletin are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Material from this publication may be reprinted with proper attribution. Editorial correspondence may be addressed to: SIGN UP! INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND Attn: Editor, IMF Research Perspectives For new issues of IMF Research Perspectives and a variety of 700 19th Street, NW other IMF publications, sign up for an electronic notification Room HQ1-9-253 at IMF.org/external/cntpst. Washington, DC 20431 USA Individual issues are available at IMF.org/researchbulletin. E-mail: [email protected] i ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution Interview with Gita Gopinath, New Director of the Research Department INTERVIEW WITH GITA GOPINATHNew Director of the Research Department Gita Gopinath joined us as our new chief economist and Research Department director in January 2019. She made her successful debut with the World Economic Outlook Update at the World Economic Forum in January. Heightened economic and financial risks and political uncertainty around the globe signaled the onset of a difficult time. Her eminent achievement in academia is already known. Yuko Hashimoto interviews Gita on a personal note. In their conversation, Gita shared childhood memories, turning points in her economics career, and her passion for her work. IMF RESEARCH perspectives | IMF.org/researchbulletin 01 ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution YUKO: Thank you very much for your time today. Y: Are those areas related to your dream job when You mentioned in the recent Communications Department you were young? interview that you studied pure science in high school. G: I don’t think I had a dream job. It was basically the flavor Exactly which area did you study? of the month. For some time, it was joining the Indian GITA: I studied physics, chemistry, math, and biology. administrative service. A few years before that there was I took economics in college because my parents wanted me this extremely successful female runner in India, and my to join the Indian administrative service, and someone told father was, like, “Oh maybe you could be an athlete.” them that economics was a good subject for this purpose. I did then run competitively for a couple of years. Basically, I signed on to a three-year college in economics without I was not one of those who knew early on what I wanted knowing the first thing about it. So basically, I committed to to become. What was always true was that I wanted to do a subject that I had no idea about. In hindsight that was a something exciting and important, even if it wasn’t clear very risky move, but thankfully it turned out fine. to me what it would be. Y: Chemistry, physics, biology—everything is Y: Were you an energetic girl or you were more related to mathematics, which is fundamental for of an observer? studying economics. G: I was certainly more reserved. My sister was much more G: Yes. Thankfully I liked math the most. That was helpful. social. I was not very social; I was reserved. I grew up in I liked how economics uses math to tackle social questions. a small town, Mysore. And I had a few very good friends, and we wasted a lot of time together. I have to say that I like small towns because people there tend to be more simple and less complicated. IMF RESEARCH perspectives | IMF.org/researchbulletin 02 ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution Y: Then you perhaps enjoyed gardens or flowers outside, Y: I know it sounds like a quite intriguing and very and a dog also? intellectual girl you were. G: Well, gardens and flowers not; I’m not an outdoor G: Intriguing…I don’t know. I was certainly thought of person at all. I have spent more time outdoors after as “different” because I fought for equal rights for girls I moved to DC than maybe the last 10 years of my and defied expectations of what girls were expected to life because my apartment here is close to the Fund, do. I refused to accept anybody telling me that, as a girl, and I walk about 30 minutes to get to and from work! you cannot do this, you cannot do that. I was very strong- My indoor entertainment was Bollywood movies. willed about it. We also had a small dog. Y: You had your own views. That’s pretty nice. You started Y: Did your parents encourage you to read newspaper studying economics when there was an IMF program articles, and some specific readings? to India. What were your experiences then? G: Yes. My father tried to make us all very literate. G: The external account crisis of India in 1990–91 was what He bought the old Britannica series, and we spent hours got me most interested in economics. I think the reason I going through them. In terms of newspapers there were ended up doing international economics was because of the local newspapers like the Hindu, the Times of India. this crisis that I experienced as a college student. That was I can’t say I was a voracious reader back then. I took a time when we were having all these debates about the to reading more these last few years. At that time, Indian economy: which policies should be put in place, etc. I was primarily into my academic studies and a few very close friends. ...I worked as a research assistant for Ken Rogoff and Maury Obstfeld writing solutions for their textbook— two predecessors of my current job! IMF RESEARCH perspectives | IMF.org/researchbulletin 03 ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution.
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