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Here Was Not Enough Officers in the Streets, the People Knew That Those Involved Were in the Necessary Place an the Necessary Time

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Here Was Not Enough Officers in the Streets, the People Knew That Those Involved Were in the Necessary Place an the Necessary Time Maps of the Future - a modern crime-analysis- and crime-prediction-based tool to increase the effectiveness and quality of public administration performance in crime prevention Beneficiary: The Ministry of the Interior of the Czech Republic, Security Policy and Crime Prevention Department, Prevention Programmes, Volunteer Services and Human Rights Unit Supplier: For the project purposes, the association of ACCENDO – Science and Research Centre, and PROCES – Regional and Municipal Development Centre has been created Science and research institute ACCENDO – Science and Research Centre Address: Švabinského 1749/19, Ostrava Tel.: +420 596 112 649 Web: http://accendo.cz E-mail: [email protected] PROCES – Regional and Municipal Development Centre Address: Švabinského 1749/19, Ostrava Phone: +420 595 136 023 Web: http://rozvoj-obce.cz E-mail: [email protected] Authors: Doc. Ing. Lubor Hruška, Ph.D. Ing. Ivana Foldynová, Ph.D. RNDr. Ivan Šotkovský, Ph.D. PhDr. Ladislava Zapletalová Mgr. Bc. Tomáš Václavík Mgr. Bc. Ivan Žurovec Ing. Radek Fujak Ing. Jiří Ševčík Submitted as of August 24th 2015 2 Maps of the Future - a modern crime-analysis- and crime-prediction-based tool to increase the effectiveness and quality of public administration performance in crime prevention CONTENTS 1. LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS .............................................................................. 7 2. PREFACE ...................................................................................................... 11 3. ABSTRACT .................................................................................................... 16 4. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................... 17 5. OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGY ........................................................... 18 6. USE OF SPATIAL INFORMATION AND TOOLS .......................................... 28 6.1. INTRODUCTION TO GIS AND SPATIAL DATA ANALYSES ................. 28 6.1.1. GIS .................................................................................................. 28 6.1.2. Spatial data analyses ...................................................................... 31 6.2. SELECTED METHODS AND PROCESSES ........................................... 34 6.2.1. Hotspot analyses ............................................................................ 34 6.2.2. Heat maps ...................................................................................... 39 6.2.3. Repeat victimisation ........................................................................ 40 6.2.4. Risk terrain modeling ...................................................................... 43 6.2.5. Geographic profiling ........................................................................ 46 6.2.6. Data mining ..................................................................................... 49 6.3. DATA ANALYSIS IN POLICING .............................................................. 54 6.3.1. Predictive policing and the role of analysis ..................................... 54 7. SOFTWARE TOOLS...................................................................................... 60 7.1. HUNCHLAB ............................................................................................. 61 7.1.1. Data ................................................................................................ 62 7.1.2. Results of predictions ...................................................................... 67 7.2. CRIMEVIEW DASHBOARD .................................................................... 68 7.2.1. Predictive missions ......................................................................... 71 7.3. PREDPOL ............................................................................................... 72 7.4. NEAR-REPEAT CALCULATOR .............................................................. 75 7.5. CRIMESTAT ............................................................................................ 76 7.6. ArcGIS ..................................................................................................... 78 7.6.1. ArcGIS for Desktop ......................................................................... 79 7.6.2. Selected extensions for ArcGIS ...................................................... 81 7.6.3. ArcGIS Server ................................................................................. 83 3 Maps of the Future - a modern crime-analysis- and crime-prediction-based tool to increase the effectiveness and quality of public administration performance in crime prevention 7.7. GEOTIME ................................................................................................ 85 7.8. IBM SPSS ................................................................................................ 88 7.8.1. Modules of IBM SPSS Statistics ..................................................... 88 7.8.2. IBM SPSS Modeler ......................................................................... 90 7.9. ORACLE .................................................................................................. 92 7.10. PRECOBS ............................................................................................... 94 8. EXAMPLES FROM THE INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES ..................................... 95 8.1. CZECH REPUBLIC ................................................................................. 95 8.1.1. Initial situation (focused on the National Police Force) ................... 95 8.1.2. Structure of the National Police Force ............................................ 96 8.1.3. Analytical activities in the National Police Force ............................. 98 8.1.4. GIS of the National Police Force ................................................... 101 8.1.5. Kolín .............................................................................................. 105 8.1.6. Uherské Hradiště .......................................................................... 115 8.1.7. Pardubice ...................................................................................... 125 8.2. GREAT BRITAIN ................................................................................... 134 8.2.1. London .......................................................................................... 135 8.2.2. Greater Manchester ...................................................................... 144 8.2.3. Kent .............................................................................................. 153 8.2.4. Cambridgeshire ............................................................................. 161 8.2.5. Home Office .................................................................................. 167 8.3. UNITED STATES OF AMERICA ........................................................... 173 8.3.1. Los Angeles .................................................................................. 174 8.3.2. San Diego ..................................................................................... 185 8.3.3. Lancaster ...................................................................................... 194 8.3.4. Tempe ........................................................................................... 205 8.4. AUSTRIA ............................................................................................... 214 8.4.1. Styria ............................................................................................. 216 8.4.2. Vienna ........................................................................................... 221 8.4.3. CriPA – Criminal Predictive Analysis ............................................ 226 8.5. SWITZERLAND ..................................................................................... 237 8.6. GERMANY ............................................................................................ 244 8.7. ITALY ..................................................................................................... 250 4 Maps of the Future - a modern crime-analysis- and crime-prediction-based tool to increase the effectiveness and quality of public administration performance in crime prevention 8.8. POLAND ................................................................................................ 259 8.9. SLOVAKIA ............................................................................................. 268 9. EVALUATION OF APPROACHES AND SUGGESTIONS FOR THE CZECH REPUBLIC ................................................................................................... 281 9.1. SUMMARY ............................................................................................ 281 9.1.1. Basic summary of benefits of each example ................................. 287 9.2. INITIAL REMARKS ................................................................................ 292 9.2.1. Summary of the situation in the Czech Republic and abroad ....... 292 9.2.2. Summary of target groups' opinions obtained during workshops .. 296 9.2.3. Assessment criteria ....................................................................... 298 9.3. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE CZECH REPUBLIC ......................... 300 9.3.1. Organisation.................................................................................. 300 9.3.2. Technological recommendations .................................................. 302 9.3.3. Methodological recommendations ...............................................
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