SPRING 2009 PRACTICAL AND AUTHORITATIVE ANALYSIS OF KEY NATIONAL ISSUES EDITORIAL Mr. O goes to Washington: The bigger-than-big agenda worked so hard to build have vanished. MODERNITY’S FIRST BY DANIEL DRACHE AND WEB 2.0 PRESIDENT JOSÉ LUIS VALDÉS-UGALDE People everywhere are worried about what tomorrow will bring. What Ameri- bama’s political capital is at its Daniel Drache is associate director of cans expect from Washington is action zenith and eventually the tide will the Robarts Centre for Canadian Studies, O that matches the urgency they feel in turn; but for now, Leader Obama is York University. José Luis Valdés-Ugalde their daily lives—action that’s swift, bold unlike any other contemporary political is director of the Centre for Research on North America at the Universidad and wise enough for us to climb out of figure. What sets him apart is a combina- Nacional Autónoma de México. this crisis” (Washington Post, February tion of his youth, his forceful ideas, the 5, 2009). jaw-numbing crisis he faces, and the In office a month over 100 days, and The push back from the Republicans innovative way he constantly networks Obama’s action agenda to rescue the and neo-conservative movement is a with his base, integrating it into the policy American economy seems hesitant and major obstacle to a really strong stimulus process. All of this has pushed him and in danger of being derailed. His message package. At present, Obama’s bipartisan us, Canada and Mexico, into uncharted is that Americans both need and expect approach is not working. Skeptics don’t waters because he is committed to action: “Millions of jobs that Americans believe he will succeed, and pragmatists changing the way politics is done and relied on just a year ago are gone; mil- how the economy operates. lions more of the nest eggs families Mr. O goes to Washington, page 3 SECURITY AND IMMIGRATION POST-BUSH The quest for the perfectly secure border ings to vent its outrage at the Department THE THREAT OF POROUS BY EDWARD ALDEN BORDERS of Homeland Security. If a known TB Edward Alden is the Bernard L. Schwartz carrier could be waved into the country ndrew Speaker had at least this in Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign across the northern border, they argued, common with a terrorist: he was Relations, Washington, DC, and the author A how much harder could it be for one of determined not to be caught. Speaker, a of The Closing of the American Border: Terrorism, Immigration, and Security Since bin Laden’s operatives? US citizen, had been warned by Ameri- 9/11, published by HarperCollins. can health authorities in May 2007 to stay The quest for the perfectly secure border, page 5 at home in Atlanta after he contracted a next day he broke his word and boarded highly infectious, drug-resistant strain of a flight from Prague to Montreal, where The contents of this issue is listed tuberculosis. But he had plans to be mar- he rented a car and drove across the US in the Features box on page 2. ried in Europe, so he ignored the warn- border at Champlain, New York. When ing and flew to Paris. Two weeks later, the news broke, it became Exhibit A for after US officials had tracked him down those who think that porous borders in Rome, he promised to get treatment remain the biggest threat to US security. there and refrain from travelling. Yet the Congress immediately convened hear- Canada Watch is a publication of the Robarts Centre for Canadian Studies of York University PRACTICAL AND AUTHORITATIVE ANALYSIS OF KEY NATIONAL ISSUES FEATURES PRACTICAL AND AUTHORITATIVE ANALYSIS OF KEY NATIONAL ISSUES Mr. O goes to Washington: Bush’s imperial presidency is Obama’s CO-EDITORS The bigger-than-big agenda toughest challenge By Stephen L . Newman . .40 Daniel Drache The quest for the perfectly secure Robarts Centre for Canadian Studies, border Mr. O: The first urban-American York University By Edward Alden . .1 president? José Luis Valdés-Ugalde By Roger Keil and David Wilson . 42 The dirty war on the immigrant: Center for Research on North America, History’s lessons, past and present Overhauling Homeland Security UNAM, Mexico By Dirk Hoerder . .7 By Leonardo Curzio . .44 MANAGING EDITOR The Latino strategic vote in the Inside the security perimeter after Obama era: Tough choices ahead 9/11 Laura Taman By Ariadna Estévez . .9 By David Mutimer . .46 COLUMNISTS THIS ISSUE Split decisions: Harper’s failed bid for Mexico, security, and the towering a majority government in the 2008 task before the Mexican state Daniel Drache Kerry Preibisch election By José Luis Valdés-Ugalde . .48 José Luis Valdés-Ugalde Wendy Dobson By Michael Adams . 11 The resurgence of Can-Am liberalism: Edward Alden Stephen L. Newman When 200 million travellers find A study in ambiguity Dirk Hoerder Roger Keil By Richard Nimijean . .50 themselves beltless and shoeless: Ariadna Estévez David Wilson Thinking thick borders Partners in higher education: People- Michael Adams Leonardo Curzio By Daniel Drache . 13 driven integration Michael McCracken David Mutimer Budget ideas for a better Canada By Arturo Borja Tamayo . 53 Seth Feldman Richard Nimijean By Mike McCracken . 15 Mexico in Latin America: The elusive Robert Latham Arturo Borja Tamayo Lincoln’s reincarnation relations with Cuba, Brazil, and By Seth Feldman . 19 Venezuela Nattie Golubov Olga Pellicer By Olga Pellicer . .55 Marilyn Lashley Jorge A. Schiavon A tale of two Obamas By Robert Latham . .20 When North American integration Ronald J. Deibert Rosío Vargas Eric Tardif Janine Brodie The end of the culture wars and the is reduced to a snail’s pace: Three Obama presidency strategic areas for future cooperation Paul Copeland Luis Astorga By Jorge A . Schiavon . .57 By Nattie Golubov . .22 Elaine Levine Stephen Clarkson Race and Joe Sixpack in the US US energy strategy and the Obama Víctor López Villefañe Michael K. Hawes presidential elections presidency: Not quite the expected Luin Goldring José Antonio Crespo U-turn By Marilyn Lashley . 24 Jenna Hennebry By Rosío Vargas . 59 Obama’s Web 2.0 presidency PRODUCTION By Ronald J . Deibert . 26 The highly uncertain future of North American governance WordsWorth Communications Fighting for human rights: Obama’s By Janine Brodie . 61 big agenda CONTACT FOR INFORMATION By Eric Tardif . 28 Mexico: Its democratic transition and narco-terrorism Canada Watch How Canada’s highest court has given By Luis Astorga . .63 227 York Lanes, 4700 Keele St. security certificates a red light Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 By Paul Copeland . .30 Obama’s impossible North American agenda Phone (416) 736-5499 Repairing the broken US immigration By Stephen Clarkson . .65 Fax (416) 736-5739 system By Elaine Levine . 32 Canada, the United States, and the www.robarts.yorku.ca * change we can believe in For information regarding future issues, The troubled future of the auto By Michael K . Hawes . 67 * contact Laura Taman, Coordinator, Robarts industry in North America Centre. Please address comments to Seth By Víctor López Villafañe . .34 The future of US democracy By José Antonio Crespo . .69 Feldman, Director, Roberts Centre. Migrants in temporary worker programs: North America’s second- Canada Watch is produced by class citizens the Robarts Centre for Canadian Studies of York University. Canadian advice for President Obama on US–China relations Copyright © 2009 By Wendy Dobson . .38 The Robarts Centre for Canadian Studies Printed in Canada ISSN 1191-7733 2 CANADA WATCh • SPRING 2009 Mr. O goes to Washington continued from page 1 are uncertain of its benefits. The bipar- The collapse of and mass unemployment. As with the tisan strategy on Obama’s stimulus bill earlier collapse of financial markets, the failed to win over a single Republican. greed-ridden Wall extreme monetary policy of the last two decades has produced a cascade of A PARADIGM SHIFT: Street as the financial debacles that has precipitated mass cor- EYES WIDE OPEN PLEASE porate default and ruined millions of Fundamental reforms can be thought of epicentre of the consumers whose life savings have dis- as what experts call a “paradigm shift” appeared down a sinkhole of corporate or, in simpler language, a fundamental global economy mismanagement and financial greed. reordering of the function and structures has produced Few experts doubt that Obama will have of the institutions of the global economy. to find his own way out of the crisis. The collapse of greed-ridden Wall Street seismic shock waves The challenge for Obama is to impose as the financial epicentre of the global regulatory discipline on markets while economy has produced seismic shock throughout the rest of at the same time keeping the system waves throughout the rest of the world. going by absorbing a mountain of debt. The US economy is contracting at a rate the world. Everything hinges on the outcome of of 6 percent, the once muscular German deleveraging, an economist’s term for economy at 7 percent, the troubled Jap- finding a safe harbour for $3 trillion in anese economy at 12 percent, and the jobs disappear since the financial toxic assets! The key issue is whether formerly dynamic Korean economy at crunch began. The world economy now Obama will in the end nationalize the 22 percent over the fourth quarter of depends increasingly on the life support banks, as George Soros and Joseph Sti- 2008. These numbers present a chilling measures of the Obama administration glitz are predicting, and finance a take- reality for the new US president. He is to counter the worst effects of the global over of the system or whether he will most preoccupied with the hundreds of slowdown.