2018 Annual Results in Line, Maintain "Neutral"

股

票

研 [Table_Title] Kevin Guo 郭勇 Company Report: Jiangxi Copper (00358 HK)

究 (86755) 2397 6671 EquityResearch 公司报告：江西铜业 (00358 HK) [email protected]

4 April 2019 [Table_Summary] 2018 Annual Results In Line, Maintain "Neutral"

2018年年度业绩符合预期，维持“中性”评级公  The 2018 annual results of Jiangxi Copper was generally in line with [Table_Rank] 司 market consensus and our estimation. Total revenue of the Company Rating: Neutral Maintained 报 increased 4.99% yoy to RMB 215.29 billion, and net profit attributable to shareholders increased 52.54% yoy to RMB 2.45 billion. 告评级：中性 (维持)

CompanyReport  We expect the global copper market to be stable in 2019 and the average annual copper price to trade between US$ 6,100/t-US$ 6,700/t. We 6[Table_Price]-18m TP 目标价 : HK$10.80 expect gold price to remain flat in 2019 and fluctuate around the level of Revised from 原目标价: HK$9.30 US$ 1,250/oz. Share price 股价: HK$10.780

 In 2019, the Company plans to produce 1.44 million tons of refined 告

copper, 0.21 million tons of mined copper and 25.0 tons of gold. The

证 output target of mining products of the Company generally remains the same Stock performance 报

compared to that of 2018. 券股价表现

究 15.0

 Revise up TP to HK$ 10.80, and maintain "Neutral". [Table_QuotePic% of return]

研 10.0

 研江西铜业 2018 年年度业绩基本符合市场一致预期和我们的估计。公司收入同比增长究 5.0 4.99%至人民币 2,152.9 亿元，股东净利同比增长 52.54%至人民币 24.5 亿元。

0.0 券

报  我们预计全球铜市场在 2019 年将保持平稳，年度铜均价将在 6,100-6,700 美元/吨之间。 (5.0)

告证我们预计金价在 2019 年将基本持平并在 1,250 美元/盎司的水平附近波动。 (10.0) EquityResearch Report (15.0)  在 2019 年，公司计划生产 144 万吨冶炼铜，21 万吨矿产铜和 25 吨黄金。公司矿产品的

(20.0)

产量目标与 2018 年相比基本保持不变。 (25.0)  上调公司目标价至 10.80 港元，维持“中性”评级。 (30.0) [Tab Apr-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19

le_I HSI Index Jiangxi Copper

nfo1 有] Change[Table_PriceChange] in Share Price 1 M 3 M 1 Y 色股价变动 1 个月 3 个月 1 年 Abs. % 0.6 19.5 (2.2) 金绝对变动 %

属 Rel. % to HS Index (3.5) (0.1) (1.5) 相对恒指变动 % 行 Avg. Share price(HK$) 10.7 10.2 9.9 业平均股价（港元）

Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. NonferrousSector Metals

[Tab le_I Y[Table_ear End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE 年结Profit] 收入股东净利每股净利每股净利变动市盈率每股净资产市净率每股股息股息率净资产收益率 nfo2 12/31 (HK$ m) (HK$ m) (HK$) (△ %) (x) (HK$) (x) (HK$) (%) (%) ] 2017A 204,241 1,651 0.477 96.3 22.6 13.732 0.8 0.200 1.9 3.5 江 2018A 214,395 2,415 0.697 46.1 15.5 14.372 0.8 0.200 1.9 5.0 2019F 217,273 3,180 0.918 31.7 11.7 15.015 0.7 0.276 2.6 6.3 西 2020F 221,296 3,333 0.963 4.9 11.2 15.689 0.7 0.289 2.7 6.3 铜 2021F 224,170 3,433 0.991 2.9 10.9 16.383 0.7 0.297 2.8 6.2 业 [Table_BaseData]Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 3,462.7 Major shareholder 大股东 Jiangxi Copper Group 40.5% Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 37,327.9 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 59.5% 3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 5,174.3 FY19 Net gearing (%) FY19 净负债/股东资金 (%) 53.7

JiangxiHK) Copper(00358 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 (HK$) 12.100 / 8.150 FY19 Est. NAV (HK$) FY19 每股估值（港元） 14.7

Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International.

See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 6

[Table_PageHeader]Jiangxi Copper (00358 HK)

The 2018 annual results of Jiangxi Copper (the "Company") was generally in line with market consensus and our

estimation. Total revenue of the Company increased 4.99% yoy to RMB 215.29 ] billion1 r , a andM t neth profitg i R attributable_ e l b toa T [

shareholders increased 52.54% yoy to RMB 2.45 billion. The significant growth in net profit was mainly attributable to higher

metal prices and fair value change of financial assets. Average copper price increased by 2.7% yoy to RMB 50,711/t in 2018

and average gold price decreased by 1.92% yoy to RMB 271.4/g. The production of the Company was stable and the Company generally fulfilled its output target; the output of mined copper decreased by 0.62% yoy to 208,300 tons, the output of refined

copper increased by 6.51% yoy to 1.46 million tons, the output of gold was generally flat at 25.28 tons, the output of silver 4 April2019 decreased by 18.40% to 394.53 tons, the output of sulfur acid increased by 12.51% to 4.02 million tons, and the output of copper products was generally flat at 1.12 million tons.

Figure-1: Gold price Figure-2: Copper price

2,000 12,000 USD/oz USD/t 1,800 10,000

1,600 8,000

1,400 6,000

] 2 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [

1,200 4,000

1,000 2,000

800 0 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18Jan-19

Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International.

We expect the global copper market to be stable in 2019 and the average annual copper price to trade between US$ 6,100/t-US$ 6,700/t. We expect gold price to remain flat in 2019 and fluctuate around the level of US$ 1,250/oz.

We expect the global copper market to remain at a normal level in 2019 just like in 2018, after a significant surge in 2010-2013 (00358 HK)

and deep dive in 2014-2016. As China’s economy enters into the "new normal" era, global copper consumption demand is not expected to record such huge growth as seen during the last decade. On the supply side, miners confront a more stable

market and expect reasonable returns. As a result, we expect the global copper market to become more stable under new 江西铜业 supply-demand constraint conditions. Copper mines are expected to enjoy comfortable profitability under the new copper price level. We expect copper price to trade between US$ 5,400/t-US$ 7,200/t in 2019, and average copper price may be around US$ 6,100/t-US$ 6,700/t. The monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve (the "Federal Reserve") is expected to

come to a turning point in 2019. Although the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rate and cut its balance sheet, the Jiangxi Copper pace will slow down greatly. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rate twice in 2019, compared to 4 times in 2018. It is also expected that the balance sheet cut process of the Federal Reserve may be slowed in 2019. Although monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve is still tight, pressure weighing on gold price in 2019 is expected to be less compared to that in 2018. However, the U.S. dollar is still expected to appreciate and market investors still lack interest in gold assets. We expect gold price to remain under pressure in 2019 as the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve remains tight. The performance of the U.S. economy has been much better than its western developed counterparts, but its prospects are facing more uncertainties. The chairman of the Federal Reserve indicated that the interest rate in the U.S. is closing to the neutral range, which means that a turning point is closing and there may not be more tightening. On the other hand, investor preference for gold assets remains stagnant as global financial markets are generally stable. We believe that the fundamentals of gold will not change much in 2019 and that gold price will remain flat. We expect gold price to fluctuate between US$ 1,100/oz-US$ 1,350/oz in 2019, and the annual average gold price to be around US$ 1,250/oz.

In 2019, the Company plans to produce 1.44 million tons of refined copper, 0.21 million tons of mined copper and 25.0 Report

tons of gold. The output target of mining products of the Company generally remains the same compared to that of 2018.The production of the Company was stable and the Company generally fulfilled its output target in 2018. Generally speaking, the

output of mined copper, which contributes most of the profit to the Company, has remained stable over the past several years Company as mining capacity of the Company remained unchanged. Jiangxi Copper only acquired a partial stake in two copper mines with other companies in the past few years, and both of them are under construction and will take some time before See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 6 [Table_PageHeader]Jiangxi Copper (00358 HK)

production can start. On the other hand, the expansion projects of domestic mines have almost all been completed. We

expect the mining output of the Company to remain unchanged over the next few years.] 1 Ther a outputM t h ofg copperi R _ cathodee l b s a T [

increased by 6.8% yoy in 2018 and is expected to grow slightly in 2019. The output of copper semi-fabricators is expected to

grow moderately in 2019. However, they are not expected to contribute much profit due to low gross margin of smelting and

semi-fabricating businesses. The output of silver is expected to decline by 20.7% yoy in 2019, mainly due to reduced silver contained in procured materials.

4 April2019 Table-1: Output of main products of Jiangxi Copper unit 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F yoy Copper cathode ton 1,200,000 1,250,000 1,211,000 1,370,000 1,463,700 1,440,000 -1.6%

Mined copper ton 210,000 209,000 209,900 209,600 208,300 205,800 -1.2% Copper semi-fabricators ton 860,000 950,000 950,000 1,140,000 1,117,600 1,258,000 12.6% Gold ton 26.0 26.0 26.4 25.9 25.6 25.0 -2.3% Silver ton 567 570 507 484 394.5 313 -20.7% Sulfuric acid ton 3,010,000 3,070,000 3,501,000 3,570,000 4,018,000 3,620,000 -9.9% Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International.

Revise up TP to HK$ 10.80, and maintain "Neutral". The output of mining products of the Company are expected to remain

] 2 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ the same as that of previous years and the growth prospect of the Company is expected to be limited in the next few years due to lackluster growth of mining products. The fundamentals of the Company remain healthy and the change in profitability mainly came from the fluctuation of metal prices. The mining outputs of the Company are expected to generally remain at the same level and copper prices are also expected to stay at the level of around US$ 6,100/t-US$ 6,700/t in 2019. We expect gold price to fluctuate between US$ 1,100/oz-US$ 1,350/oz in 2019, and the annual average gold price to be around US$ 1,250/oz. We expect the Company to maintain its profitability in 2019 considering the price level of copper and gold. Jiangxi Copper is the largest copper producer in China and we believe that the Company will benefit greatly if copper price

continues to rise. We revise up the TP to HK$ 10.80 due to higher FY19 EPS, which is equivalent to 10.0x FY18 PE and 0.6x

FY19 PB, and maintain "Neutral".

(00358 HK)

江西铜业 Jiangxi Copper

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Company

See the last page for disclaimer Page 3 of 6 [Table_PageHeader]Jiangxi Copper (00358 HK)

Table-2: Peers Comparison PE PB ROE(%)

] 1 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [

Company Stock Code Currency Last price 17A 18F 19F 20F 17A 18F 19F 20F 20F Bhp Billiton Plc BLT LN GBp n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

Vale Sa-Pref VALE5 BZ BRL n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 15.0

Rio Tinto Plc RIO LN GBp 4,655.50 12.2 12.3 10.5 11.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 19.1

Anglo American Plc AAL LN GBp 2,177.50 11.3 11.8 10.0 11.4 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 12.6

Grupo Mexico Sab De Cv-Ser B GMEXICOB MM MXN 54.45 14.4 13.8 11.4 10.2 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.6 14.0

4 April2019 Simple Average 12.6 12.6 10.6 11.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 15.2 Weighted Average 8.6 8.6 7.3 7.9 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 16.3

Freeport-Mcmoran Inc FCX US USD 13.12 10.5 8.2 28.5 14.6 2.4 1.9 1.9 1.8 25.1

Southern Copper Corp SCCO US USD 39.89 42.4 19.1 17.1 15.6 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.6 24.9

Antofagasta Plc ANTO LN GBp 1,003.00 16.9 24.6 19.0 18.4 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 7.4

Sociedad Minera Cerro Verde CVERDEC1 PE USD 24.12 24.1 13.2 12.4 11.2 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 12.6

Kazakhmys Plc KAZ LN GBp 693.00 8.9 7.9 8.2 7.7 4.2 2.7 2.8 2.2 42.4

Kghm Polska Miedz Sa KGH PW PLN 111.20 14.2 12.2 8.4 8.7 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.9 9.1

Vedanta Resources Plc VED LN GBp n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

Simple Average 19.5 14.2 15.6 12.7 2.7 2.3 2.2 1.9 20.2 Weighted Average 25.2 15.7 18.5 14.4 3.2 2.8 2.6 2.4 20.7

] 2 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [

Jiangxi Copper Co Ltd-A 600362 CH CNY 16.66 36.2 23.1 20.7 19.7 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 5.2

Western Mining Co -A 601168 CH CNY 7.03 63.9 19.2 16.0 14.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 6.8

Tongling Nonferrous Metals-A 000630 CH CNY 2.72 54.4 28.6 23.7 19.4 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 6.5

Yunnan Copper Industry Co-A 000878 CH CNY 11.28 70.2 34.7 28.7 23.0 2.8 2.2 2.0 1.8 8.0

Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan-A 000060 CH CNY 5.91 19.3 19.5 20.5 19.7 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.7 9.9

Simple Average 48.8 25.0 21.9 19.3 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.4 7.3 Weighted Average 45.8 24.9 21.9 19.5 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 6.8

China Zhongwang Holdings Ltd 1333 HK HKD 4.41 5.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. 9.6

Jiangxi Copper Co Ltd-H 358 HK HKD 10.78 20.3 12.4 12.3 11.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 5.2

Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Ind-H 3833 HK HKD 0.71 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. (00358 HK) China Molybdenum Co Ltd-H 3993 HK HKD 3.57 22.1 13.2 16.1 18.4 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 12.5

China Hongqiao Group Ltd 1378 HK HKD 6.33 7.9 9.2 7.9 6.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 9.6

Simple Average 16.8 11.6 12.1 12.1 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 9.2 江西铜业 Weighted Average 18.1 11.9 13.1 13.7 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 9.9

Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International.

Jiangxi Copper

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See the last page for disclaimer Page 4 of 6 [Table_PageHeader]Jiangxi Copper (00358 HK)

Financial Statements and Ratios

[Table_IncomeStatement] [Table_BalanceSheet] ] 1 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [

Income Statement Balance Sheet

Year end 31 Dec (RMB m) 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F Year end 31 Dec (RMB m) 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F

Total Revenue 204,241 214,395 217,273 221,296 224,170 PPE 21,980 21,561 24,512 25,540 25,652

Cost of Sales (195,643) (207,552) (208,883) (212,592) (215,303) Long-term equity investment 3,178 3,676 3,786 3,900 4,017

Gross Profit 8,598 6,843 8,390 8,704 8,868 Intangible assets 1,089 1,976 2,173 2,391 2,630

SG&A (4,807) (698) (1,395) (1,489) (1,568) Others 5,452 6,091 6,396 6,716 7,051

Operating Profit 3,791 4,776 6,995 7,215 7,300 Total Non-current Assets 31,699 33,304 36,867 38,546 39,349 4 April2019

Finance Cost (918) (1,409) (1,968) (1,952) (1,857)

Others 33 (105) (41) (38) (61) Cash & Cash Equivalents 10,363 10,647 10,864 11,065 11,209

Profit Before Tax 2,906 3,262 4,986 5,226 5,381 Trade receivables 22,561 18,179 23,900 24,343 24,659 Income Tax (1,146) (840) (1,595) (1,672) (1,722) Inventory 19,997 17,259 17,382 17,704 17,934 profit After Tax 1,760 2,423 3,390 3,554 3,659 Other 12,849 23,477 23,711 23,949 24,188

Non-controlling Interest (109) (8) (210) (220) (227) Total Current Assets 65,771 69,562 75,857 77,060 77,989

Shareholders' Profit / Loss 1,651 2,415 3,180 3,333 3,433 Total Assets 97,470 102,866 112,724 115,606 117,338

Basic EPS 0.477 0.697 0.918 0.963 0.991

Short-term Loans 29,901 28,500 32,367 32,243 30,987

Trade payables 13,424 12,782 14,123 14,384 14,571 Others 2,588 4,856 4,953 5,052 5,153

[Table_CashFlowStatement] Cash Flow Statement Total Current Liabilities 45,914 46,138 51,443 51,679 50,711

] 2 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [

Year end 31 Dec (RMB m) 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F

Net Income 1,651 2,415 3,180 3,333 3,433 Long-term Loans 9 3,282 3,259 3,319 3,363

Working Capital Change (7,926) 6,478 (4,503) (503) (359) Bond payable 500 500 2,573 2,607 2,656

Dep.&Amortization 1,564 1,670 1,784 1,902 2,008 Others 1,046 919 986 984 963

Others (4,244) (7,288) (323) 1,423 1,491 Total Non-current Liabilities 1,555 4,701 6,818 6,910 6,981

Cash from Operating Activities (8,955) 3,276 138 6,155 6,573

Total Liabilities 47,468 50,839 58,261 58,589 57,692

CAPEX (2,500) (2,700) (2,850) (2,900) (2,300) Total Shareholders' Equity 47,551 49,766 51,992 54,326 56,729

Others (57) (62) (67) (72) (78) Minority Interest 2,451 2,260 2,470 2,691 2,917

Cash from Investing Activities (2,557) (2,762) (2,917) (2,972) (2,378) Total Equity 50,002 52,027 54,463 57,017 59,646

New Bank Loans 15,226 1,872 5,917 (30) (1,164)

[Table_FinancialRatio] Financial Ratios (00358 HK)

Dividend Paid (693) (693) (954) (1,000) (1,030)

Interest Paid (918) (1,409) (1,968) (1,952) (1,857) Yr end Dec 31st 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F

Cash from Financing Activities 13,616 (230) 2,995 (2,982) (4,051)

Net Changes in Cash 2,103 284 216 201 144 Gross Margin 4.2% 3.2% 3.9% 3.9% 4.0% 江西铜业

Cash at Beg of Year 8,260 10,363 10,647 10,864 11,065 Net Margin 0.8% 1.1% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%

Foreign exchange rate changes 0 0 0 0 0 ROE 3.5% 5.0% 6.3% 6.3% 6.2%

Cash at End of Year 10,363 10,647 10,864 11,065 11,209 ROA 1.8% 2.4% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9%

ROCE 7.4% 8.2% 11.3% 11.2% 10.9% Jiangxi Copper Free CF(mn Rmb) -11,455 576 -2,712 3,255 4,273 Net Gearing 42.6% 44.5% 53.7% 51.0% 46.5%

Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International.

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See the last page for disclaimer Page 5 of 6 [Table_PageHeader]Jiangxi Copper (00358 HK)

Company[Table_CompanyRatingDefinition] Rating Definition

The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index ] 1 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [

Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months

Rating Definition

Buy 买入 Relative Performance>15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Accumulate 收集 Relative Performance is 5% to 15%;

or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. 4 April2019 Neutral 中性 Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral. Reduce 减持 Relative Performance is -5% to -15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.

Sell 卖出 Relative Performance <-15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.

Sector[Table_ RatingIndustry DefinitionRatingDefinition] The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Outperform 跑赢大市 Relative Performance>5%;

] 2 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable. Neutral 中性 Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral. Underperform 跑输大市 Relative Performance<-5%; Or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable.

[DISCLOSURETable_DISCLOSUREOFINTERESTS OF INTERESTS ] (1) The Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report.

(2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Except for KAISA GROUP (01638 HK),GUOTAI JUNAN I (01788 HK),BANK OF GANSU (02139 HK),BINHAI INVESTMENT (02886 HK),VALUE A SHARE (03095 HK),CAM SCSMALLCAP (03157 HK),HAITIANTIAN (08227 HK),CSOP MSCI-R (CNY) (83149 HK),Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in

this Research Report. (00358 HK) (4) Guotai Junan and its group companies have not had investment banking relationships with the issuer mentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months. (5) Guotai Junan and its group companies are not making a market in the securities in respect of the issuer mentioned in this Research

Report. 江西铜业 (6) Guotai Junan and its group companies have not employed an individual serving as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. There is no officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report associated with Guotai Junan and its group companies.

Jiangxi Copper DISCLAIMER

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Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report, Guotai Junan does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This Research Report may contain some forward-looking estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision.

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