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A Data-Driven Modelling Method for Studying Innovation Processes

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A Data-Driven Modelling Method for Studying Innovation Processes Cover Page The handle http://hdl.handle.net/1887/32003 holds various files of this Leiden University dissertation Author: Yuanyuan Zhao Title: Modelling the dynamics of the innovation process : a data-driven agent-based approach Issue Date: 2015-02-17 Modelling the dynamics of the innovation process A data-driven agent-based approach PROEFSCHRIFT ter verkrijging van de graad van Doctor aan de Universiteit Leiden, op gezag van Rector Magnificus Prof. mr. C.J.J.M Stolker, volgens besluit van het College voor Promoties te verdedigen op dinsdag 17 februari 2015 klokke 11:15 uur door Yuanyuan Zhao geboren te Zaozhuang, China in 1983 Samenstelling Promotiecommissie Promotor Prof. Dr. B.R. Katzy Co-promotor Dr. R. Ortt (Delft University of Technology) Overige leden Dr. S.W.Cunningham (Delft University of Technology) Prof. Dr. J.N. Kok Prof. Dr. S. Pickl (Universität der Bundeswehr München) Prof. Dr. A. Plaat Prof. Dr. H. J. van den Herik Printed by: Off Page Cover image: Red-crowned crane by Peiduo Cui (崔培铎) 2 To my father 3 Table of Contents Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................ 4 List of Figures............................................................................................................................... 7 List of Tables ................................................................................................................................ 8 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 9 1.1 Motivation ...................................................................................................................11 1.1.1 The importance of innovation ........................................................................11 1.1.2 Decision making on innovation .....................................................................12 1.1.3 The difficulty of collecting data ....................................................................13 1.1.4 The challenge of analysing data ....................................................................14 1.2 Problem statement and research questions ............................................................15 1.3 Research methodology − in-depth case study .......................................................16 1.4 Thesis overview..........................................................................................................18 1.5 References ...................................................................................................................19 2 A Data-driven Modelling Method for Studying Innovation Processes .............. 21 2.1 Challenges of modelling innovation processes .....................................................22 2.2 Overview of research methods for studying innovation processes....................22 2.3 A new data-driven modelling ...................................................................................24 2.4 Illustration: Analysing the Nylon innovation ........................................................28 2.5 Discussion of the data-driven Modelling Method ................................................32 2.6 Conclusion...................................................................................................................39 2.7 References ...................................................................................................................40 3 The Dynamics of Innovation Processes Revisited .................................................... 45 3.1 Advancing innovation process models ...................................................................46 3.2 A review of the linear and cyclical model of innovation ....................................48 3.2.1 The linear innovation model ..........................................................................48 3.2.2 The cyclical innovation model.......................................................................49 3.3 A system view of innovations ..................................................................................50 3.4 Method of the study ...................................................................................................53 3.5 Process pattern in the SSRI data ..............................................................................54 3.5.1 The scientific discovery phase (1950s-1960s) ............................................55 3.5.2 Product development phase (late 1960s-late 1980s) ..................................57 3.5.3 Prozac’s marketing phase (1990s).................................................................60 4 3.5.4 Prozac maturity phase (2001--)......................................................................61 3.6 Discussion ...................................................................................................................63 3.6.1 Linking linear and cyclical model .................................................................63 3.6.2 Theoretical implications..................................................................................65 3.6.3 Managerial implications..................................................................................67 3.7 Conclusions .................................................................................................................68 3.7.1 Answers to RQ2 ...............................................................................................68 3.7.2 Main contributions ...........................................................................................69 3.7.3 Future research .................................................................................................69 3.8 References ...................................................................................................................70 4 The Emergence of Technological Innovations .......................................................... 75 4.1 How to spot emergence? ...........................................................................................76 4.2 What does “emergence” mean? ...............................................................................77 4.3 Can mainstream theories explain emergence? ......................................................79 4.3.1 Life cycle theory...............................................................................................80 4.3.2 Evolutionary theory .........................................................................................80 4.3.3 Punctuated equilibrium theory .......................................................................81 4.3.4 Social construction theory ..............................................................................82 4.3.5 Embedded discussion ......................................................................................82 4.4 A dissipative self-organising model of emergence ..............................................84 4.5 Case study: the Teflon innovation...........................................................................86 4.5.1 Analysis approach ............................................................................................87 4.5.2 The emergence of Teflon ................................................................................89 4.6 Discussion ...................................................................................................................96 4.6.1 Meaning of emergence and the mechanism of emergence .......................97 4.6.2 Added value of the dissipative self-organising model ...............................99 4.6.3 Practical implications ....................................................................................102 4.7 Conclusion.................................................................................................................104 4.8 References .................................................................................................................105 5 A minimal-assumption-based agent-based simulation model of the emergence of technological innovation ....................................................................................................111 5.1 Problems when applying agent-based simulation...............................................112 5.2 Two strategies for simplifying the simulation model ........................................114 5 5.2.1 Using hypercycles as a simplifying mechanis ms .....................................114 5.2.2 Using pre-defined frameworks to categorise activities............................116 5.3 The agent-based model............................................................................................117 5.4 Calibrating the model with an empirical innovation case .................................120 5.4.1 A brief introduction of the Nylon case .......................................................120 5.4.2 Calibrating the simulation model using the Nylon empirics ..................122 5.5 Running the model ...................................................................................................123 5.6 Decision support: scenario design .........................................................................128 5.6.1 Fluctuations .....................................................................................................129 5.6.2 Impact of alternative interventions..............................................................130 5.7 Conclusions and future
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