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Global Economics Paper No: 99 Economic Global Economics Research from the GS Financial Workbench® at https://www.gs.com Paper No: 99 Dreaming With BRICs: The Path to 2050 n Over the next 50 years, Brazil, Russia, India and China—the BRICs economies—could become a much larger force in the world economy. We map out GDP growth, income per capita and currency movements in the BRICs economies until 2050. n The results are startling. If things go right, in less than 40 years, the BRICs economies together could be larger than the G6 in US dollar terms. By 2025 they could account for over half the size of the G6. Of the current G6, only the US and Japan may be among the six largest economies in US dollar terms in 2050. n The list of the world’s ten largest economies may look quite different in 2050. The largest economies in the world (by GDP) may no longer be the richest (by income per capita), making strategic choices for firms more complex. Dominic Wilson Many thanks to Jim O’Neill, Paulo Leme, Sandra Roopa Purushothaman Lawson, Warren Pearson and our regional economists for their contributions to this paper. 1st October 2003 Important disclosures appear at the end of this document. SUMMARY n Over the next 50 years, Brazil, Russia, India and China—the BRICs economies—could become a much larger force in the world economy. Using the latest demographic projections and a model of capital accumulation and productivity growth, we map out GDP growth, income per capita and currency movements in the BRICs economies until 2050. n The results are startling. If things go right, in less than 40 years, the BRICs economies together could be larger than the G6 in US dollar terms. By 2025 they could account for over half the size of the G6. Currently they are worth less than 15%. Of the current G6, only the US and Japan may be among the six largest economies in US dollar terms in 2050. n About two-thirds of the increase in US dollar GDP from the BRICs should come from higher real growth, with the balance through currency appreciation. The BRICs’ real exchange rates could appreciate by up to 300% over the next 50 years (an average of 2.5% a year). n The shift in GDP relative to the G6 takes place steadily over the period, but is most dramatic in the first 30 years. Growth for the BRICs is likely to slow significantly toward the end of the period, with only India seeing growth rates significantly above 3% by 2050. And individuals in the BRICs are still likely to be poorer on average than individuals in the G6 economies, with the exception of Russia. China’s per capita income could be roughly what the developed economies are now (about US$30,000 per capita). n As early as 2009, the annual increase in US dollar spending from the BRICs could be greater than that from the G6 and more than twice as much in dollar terms as it is now. By 2025 the annual increase in US dollar spending from the BRICs could be twice that of the G6, and four times higher by 2050. n The key assumption underlying our projections is that the BRICs maintain policies and develop institutions that are supportive of growth. Each of the BRICs faces significant challenges in keeping development on track. This means that there is a good chance that our projections are not met, either through bad policy or bad luck. But if the BRICs come anywhere close to meeting the projections set out here, the implications for the pattern of growth and economic activity could be large. n The relative importance of the BRICs as an engine of new demand growth and spending power may shift moredramaticallyandquicklythanexpected.Highergrowthintheseeconomiescouldoffsettheimpactof greying populations and slower growth in the advanced economies. n Higher growth may lead to higher returns and increased demand for capital. The weight of the BRICs in investment portfolios could rise sharply. Capital flows might move further in their favour, prompting major currency realignments. n Rising incomes may also see these economies move through the ‘sweet spot’ of growth for different kinds of products, as local spending patterns change. This could be an important determinant of demand and pricing patterns for a range of commodities. n As today’s advanced economies become a shrinking part of the world economy, the accompanying shifts in spending could provide significant opportunities for global companies. Being invested in and involved in the right markets—particularly the right emerging markets—may become an increasingly important strategic choice. n The list of the world’s ten largest economies may look quite different in 2050. The largest economies in the world (by GDP) may no longer be the richest (by income per capita), making strategic choices for firms more complex. Global Paper No 99 2 1st October 2003 he world economy has changed a lot over the past Using the latest demographic projections and a T50 years. Over the next 50, the changes could be at model of capital accumulation and productivity least as dramatic. growth, we map out GDP growth, income per capita and currency movements in the BRICs economies We have highlighted the importance of thinking until 2050. This allows us to paint a picture of how the about the developing world in our recent global world economy might change over the decades research, focusing on key features of development ahead. and globalisation that we think are important to investors with a long-term perspective. A major The results of the exercise are startling. They suggest theme of this work has been that, over the next few that if things go right, the BRICs could become a very decades, the growth generated by the large important source of new global spending in the not developing countries, particularly the BRICs (Brazil, too distant future. The chart below shows that India’s Russia, India and China) could become a much larger economy, for instance, could be larger than Japan’s force in the world economy than it is now—and much by 2032, and China’s larger than the US by 2041 (and larger than many investors currently expect. larger than everyone else as early as 2016). The BRICs economies taken together could be larger than In this piece, we gauge just how large a force the the G6 by 2039. BRICs could become over the next 50 years. We do this not simply by extrapolating from current growth Our projections are optimistic, in the sense that they rates, but by setting out clear assumptions about how assume reasonably successful development. But they the process of growth and development works and are economically sensible, internally consistent and applying a formal framework to generate long-term provide a clear benchmark against which investors forecasts. We look at our BRICs projections relative can set their expectations. There is a good chance that to long-term projections for the G6 (US, Japan, UK, the right conditions in one or another economy will Germany, France and Italy)1. not fall into place and the projections will not be Overtaking the G6: When BRICs' US$GDP Would Exceed G6 UK Germany Japan US China Italy France Germany Japan India Italy France Germany Russia Italy France Germany Brazil G6 BRICs *cars indicate when BRICs US$GDP exceeds US$GDP in the G6 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 GS BRICs Model Projections. See text for details and assumptions. 1 Any decision to limit the sample of countries is to some extent arbitrary. In focusing on the G6 (rather than the G7 or a broader grouping), we decided to limit our focus to those developed economies with GDP currently over US$1 trillion. This means that Canada and and some of the other larger developed economies are not included. Adding these economies to the analysis would not materially change the conclusions. Global Paper No 99 3 1st October 2003 BRICs Have a Larger US$GDP Than the G6 realized. If the BRICs pursue sound policies, GDP in Less Than 40 Years however,theworldweenvisageheremightturnoutto (2003 US$bn) be a reality, not just a dream. 100,000 By 2040: 90,000 BRICs BRICS The projections leave us in no doubt that the progress G6 80,000 overtake of the BRICs will be critical to how the world 2025: BRICs 70,000 economies the G6 economy evolves. If these economies can fulfil their over half as potential for growth, they could become a dominant 60,000 large as the G6 forceingeneratingspendinggrowthoverthenextfew 50,000 decades. 40,000 30,000 A Dramatically Different World 20,000 We start with some key conclusions that describe the 10,000 way the world might change over the next 50 years. 0 The big assumption underlying all of these 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 projections is that the BRICs maintain GS BRICs Model Projections. See text for details and assumptions. growth-supportive policy settings. The charts GDP BRICs Share of GDP Rises throughout the text illustrate these points. Our (2003 US$bn) conclusions fall under five main topics: 1) economic 160,000 size; 2) economic growth; 3) incomes and 140,000 G6 share of demographics; 4) global demand patterns; and 5) combined BRICs and G6 GDP currency movements. 120,000 BRICs share of 100,000 combined BRICs Economic Size and G6 GDP 80,000 n In less than 40 years, the BRICs’ economies 60,000 together could be larger than the G6 in US dollar 60% terms.
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