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Download Document (PDF | 869.97 National Drought Management Authority MANDERA COUNTY DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR APRIL 2021 APRIL 2021 EW PHASE Early Warning (EW) Phase Classification Livelihood Zone Phase Trend Agro-pastoral zone Alarm Improving Irrigated Cropping Alarm Improving Pastoral all species Alarm Improving County Alarm Improving 2 Value Normal Range/Value Rainfall (% of Normal) 0 80 -120 VCI-3Month 34.28 >35 Forage condition Fair-Poor Good Production indicators Value Normal Crop Condition (Maize) Poor Good Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification Livestock Body Poor Good Condition Biophysical Indicators Milk Production 2.3 2.1 litres • Rainfall received in all parts of the county during the Month under review. Livestock Migration Migration Normal • Vegetation condition; the current three-month Vegetation Condition index is Pattern moderate vegetation greenness deficit for the County on improving trend. Livestock deaths No deaths No deaths • browse conditions are currently fair across the County. Access Indicators Value Normal • Water availability has improved compared to last month. Terms of Trade (ToT) 45 >47.3kgs Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Milk Consumption 1.3 1.5 litres Production indicators: Return distance to water 8 <7.8 Km • Livestock body condition is currently fair to poor in all the livelihood zones. sources • Milk production is normal when compared to LTA. Cost of water at source 2-5 <5Kshs Access indicators: (20 litres) • Terms of trade is unfavourable across all the livelihood zones. Utilization indicators Value Normal • Milk consumption is normal in all the livelihood zone. Nutrition Status, MUAC 28.9 19.6 • Water access for both human and livestock consumption is normal. (% at risk of Utilization Indicators: malnutrition) • The percentage of under five children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) was Coping Strategy Index 16.68 <0.95 above the long-term average Seasonal Calendar ▪ Short rains harvests ▪ Planting/Weeding ▪ Long rains harvests ▪ Short rains ▪ Short dry spell ▪ Long rains ▪ A long dry spell ▪ Planting/weeding ▪ Reduced milk yields ▪ High Calving Rate ▪ Land preparation ▪ Increased HH Food ▪ Milk Yields ▪ Increased HH Food Stocks Increase Stocks ▪ Land preparation ▪ Kidding (Sept) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Mandera_April2021_drought bulletin Page1 1.0 CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE • The weekly review of rainfall received throughout the county seems to be normal and improving • This is normal during this time of the year as adequate precipitation was received, above average as shown below. • The current NDVI average is average as shown below. 1.3.1 Other Events • No new outbreak was reported in the entire County during the month and the quarantine in Mandera North Sub County was lifted. • New cases of COVID 19 pandemic were reported during the month under review Mandera county_April2021_drought bulletin Page 2 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX 2.1.1Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) • The current vegetation condition index remained moderate vegetation deficit band for the month of April2021. • When compared to the previous month, the current 3-month VCI has increased from 23.5 in March to 34.28 in April 2021 indicating improvement trend. • Four sub counties are showing moderate vegetation deficit while two are showing normal vegetation greenness during the month. Mandera county_April2021_drought bulletin Page 3 2.1.2 Pasture and Browse • According to sampled communities, 58 percent of the 210 households interviewed reported that the pasture condition as poor while 42 percent reported pasture condition as fair as shown in the above chart. • Fifty Four percent of the 210 households interviewed reported browse conditions as fair, thirty five percent reported browse condition as poor while twelve percent as good. • When compared to last month, both the pasture and browse situation is getting better and the situation is expected to improve as its still raining once or twice a week. • Some livestock farmers are still purchasing maize grains for their livestock as feeds, due to depleted pastures in most of the sub-counties. However, it is expected to regenerate towards the end of the month or early the following month. 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Sources • The current main sources of water in use by both human and livestock in the county are boreholes, River Daua and earth pans. The proportion of sampled population using boreholes water was thirty percent in the month of April, earth pans at fifty percent and River at ten percent respectively. • Currently no water tracking cases reported during the month under review across the county. • Most of earth pans have impounded water that would last for about thirty to sixty days depending on their capacity. Mandera county_April2021_drought bulletin Page 4 2.2.2 Household access and utilization • The average household return distance to watering sources recorded during the month was 8.2Km as shown in the chart above. • The current average return distance is at par with normal STA but above the wet season STA. • The average household distance decreased when compared to last month. • The average cost of 20-litre jerry can at the source is between Ksh 2-5, which is normal at this time of the year in most parts of the county, and water consumption is normal across the County. • The proportion of households currently treating water is significantly very low with only few households mainly in urban centers reported to have used boiling methods 2.2.3 Livestock Access • The current trekking average return distance from grazing areas to the main source of water is 10 Km, showing a decreased when compared to last Month. • Irrigated cropping livelihood zone reported the longest average return grazing distance at 11 km followed by pastoral zone with 8 km and Agro pastoral livelihood zone with distance of 5 km respectively. • The current trekking distances is below the normal STA, wet season STA averages and the dry season as shown in the table below 2.3 Implication on food security . • Pasture regeneration and sufficient water supply for all livelihood zones, will affect the trekking distance which will have an impact on the livestock body condition thus improves production at household level. Mandera county_April2021_drought bulletin Page 5 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition. • The body conditions of livestock for all species were fair to poor across all livelihood zones in the County. Cattle and sheep have poor body condition due to poor regeneration of pasture while camels and goats have fair body condition. • Compared to a similar period in the previous years, the situation is likely same during these times of the year. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases. • Cases of PPR, CCPP, and Black Quarter still exists countywide. • The department of veterinary service continued to carry out routine treatment and deworming of reported cases. • There were reported cases of livestock diseases especially goats and donkeys at Mandera south, mandera west and Lafey sub-counties. 3.1.3 Milk Production • The average milk production per household was 2.3 litres in April, compared to the previous month, the milk production increased for goats and camel and very low production for sheep and cattle. • The production is above the long-term average and the dry year and slightly below the wet year as shown above. • Agro pastoral zone reported highest milk production followed by Pastoral all species and irrigated cropping zone respectively. 3.2 RAIN-FED CROP PRODUCTION. 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops • In Irrigated cropping zone, Maize crop is at land preparation and planting stage while horticultural crops like water melons, onions and Bananas are been harvested. • Agro pastoral zone, crops have dry germinated and is at knee heigh stage of crop production 3.3 IMPLICATION OF THE ABOVE INDICATORS ON FOOD SECURITY. • Minimal harvest expected along River Daua, which will affect the households along the irrigated cropping zone. Mandera county_April2021_drought bulletin Page 6 4.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1 LIVESTOCK MARKETING 4.1.1 Cattle Prices • Average cattle price was Ksh 14517 in the month of April 2021. The average price decreased when compared to last month this is because of poor body condition. • Agro pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average followed by Pastoral all species and Irrigated Livelihood zones respectively. • When compared to the Normal STA, the average cattle price was below the normal STA, the dry year and the wet year as shown in the table below. 4.1.2 Goat Prices • Average goat price was Ksh 3,745 in the month of April, when compared to previous month, the goat price remained the same. • Highest price range was in Pastoral all species livelihood zone followed by Agro pastoral livelihood zone and irrigated livelihood zone. • The current average price is below the usual long-term average but above the bad season and the good season as shown in the graph below. Mandera county_April2021_drought bulletin Page 7 Sheep Price • Average sheep price was Ksh 2,200 in the month of April and when compared to the previous month, the sheep price decreased. • The current average price is slightly below the long-term average and the dry year of the same month as shown below. • The highest average price noted in Pastoral all species zone followed by Agro pastoral zone and irrigated cropping zone respectively. 4.1.3 Camel Prices • The average camel price during the month of April 2021 is Ksh 33,000 when compared to the previous month, the average price decreased. • Highest average price recorded in Agro pastoral zone followed by Pastoral all species livelihood zone and irrigated cropping livelihood zone. • The average camel price is higher when compared to normal range as shown in the table below. Mandera county_April2021_drought bulletin Page 8 4.2 CROP PRICES Maize • The average maize price during the month of April 2021 was Ksh.84 per kg.
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