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Odyssey 21 November 2012 OdyIsssues 23, Jeanuary y 2013 Image courtesy Jim Burns The e-Magazine of the British Interplanetary Society The Odyssey Infinite Space Interview: In This Issue l The Odyssey Infinite Space Interview: David Brin David Brin Radical Vectors: Guest Columnist With degrees from Caltech and the University l of California-San Diego, Dr Brin serves on Richard Hayes on gyroscopes, spindizzys advisory panels ranging from astronomy, and anti-gravity. NASA innovative concepts, nanotech, and l Titans of the BIS: Ken Gatland SETI, to national defence and technological l Book Review: 2312 ethics. His nonfiction book The Transparent Society explores the dangers of secrecy and l Echoes from the Future loss of privacy in our modern world. It l Dates for Your Diary garnered the prestigious Freedom of Speech Prize from the American Library Association. Has SF run its course now that we live in a In Next Month’s Issue science fiction age? Dreams become more complex, in coming l Kim Stanley Robinson steps into our true. In large measure, that’s a good thing – Virtual Interview Chair and tells us how JBIS influenced the research certainly unavoidable. And yes, that means behind his famous novels on the the job of trying to project near-future trends terraforming of Mars! will become steadily more difficult: science fiction that is “hard” and focused on real l Odyssey remembers Sir Patrick Moore plausibilities. That may be why so few of us still write thirty to fifty year projections that fill the most thorny range. Think back forty years or so. If you brought forward a bright person from that time – David Brin is a scientist, inventor, and perhaps even your younger self – what would New York Times bestselling author. With he or she say? Half the time it would be books translated into twenty five “Wow! That’s amazing!” The other half: “You languages, he has won multiple Hugo, mean you future-folk are still doing that?” It is Nebula, and other awards. A film directed this combination of astonishing brilliance and by Kevin Costner was based on David’s dullard obstinacy that a writer must capture, novel The Postman . Other works have in order to make any fictional world seem been optioned by Paramount and Warner plausibly interesting and frustrating… as its Bros. David’s science-fictional “Uplift” citizens would certainly find it. As we find our saga explores genetic engineering of own incredible time. higher animals (such as dolphins) which Should we abandon human spaceflight allows them to speak. His new novel Editor: Mark Stewart from Tor Books is Existence (soon to be and concentrate on problems more close Layout and Design: Adrian Mann reviewed in Odyssey ). to home? (www.bisbos.com ) As a scientist and futurist, David is seen Is that a trick question? Indeed, I am known as frequently on television shows such as The “Contrary Brin” for eagerly trying assumption- Production Quality: Mel Hacker, David A. ArchiTechs , Universe , and Life After People (the busting concepts on for size. But I think I will Hardy, Martin Postranecky and John Silvester beg off doing that, this time, for a simple most popular show ever on the History Distribution and web support: reason: if we stop moving forward, on all Channel) – with many appearances on PBS, Ralph Timberlake, Andrew Vaudin and fronts… we’ll die. BBC and NPR. An inventor with many patents, Ben Jones he is in-demand to speak about future trends, In my newest novel, I portray some of the Odyssey is published every month by the keynoting for IBM, Google, Procter & Gamble, stark choices we face, in the context of the BIS and is circulated by email. Feedback SAP, Microsoft, Qualcomm, the Mauldin Great Silence or so-called “Fermi Paradox.” on the e-Magazine is welcome, including Group, and Casey Research, all the way to The question of why the cosmos seems so suggestions for future articles, via empty of signs of technological civilisation, think-tanks, Homeland Security, and the CIA. [email protected] Odyssey: The e-Magazine of the British Interplanetary Society: January 2013 www.bis-space.com 1 when our back-of-the-envelope calculations Problems that are a lot more complex and (using the famed Drake Equation) suggest it interesting than mere enslavement? should be everywhere. One whole class of Startide and The Uplift War depict this process explanations (I’ve catalogued about a near the end, with sapient dolphins, chimps hundred) is that young tech-races inevitably and others finding their way into their own, stumble into a mine field of failure modes. special kind of equality with us. In Existence , I These range from nuclear war and ecological have a look at the other end: where we are degradation all the way to the opposite right now, wrestling with the very notion of calamity, namely renunciation of ambition, uplift and the political fury that any effort clamping tight controls on science or grand might provoke, eliciting fierce opposition endeavours, seeking salvation and survival from both left and right. the way that many religions (and some Recent science has cast new light on the issue. scientists like Jared Diamond) recommend by We now know that dozens of Earthly species, turning away from frontiers. This general from cetaceans to crows to sea lions, seem to movement is already with us, though masked cluster just below dolphins and chimps at by many names. Anti-science attitudes appear roughly the same glass ceiling of intelligence, at both wings of the insipid “left-right axis,” language, problem-solving ability. How could and among those who claim that the thing that convergence be? And what has kept they despise is Western arrogance. In them all from bursting through? All but one, Existence , I portray many elements of this that is: we Homo sapiens. Oh, this endeavour movement, trying to show it in the best light will be tried, all right. The question is: will we possible – as some of the characters see it. have the wisdom to do it right? Though, as you might guess, I disagree. The “ Uplift ” universe contains many We may soon witness a sudden crash in the sentient species more advanced than price per watt of sustainable energy sources. humanity. How do you square this with the If so, it will have been science and investment Cell” process extrapolating and augmenting in Fermi paradox? that makes it so. The same may also happen forty years, allowing “smart mobs” of self- I don’t. I never claimed that the “ Uplift ” when we start mining asteroids, making organized citizens to swiftly detect threats universe was a “hard-SF” attempt to represent civilisation so rich we might turn the Earth and problems that used to be the province of our actual world (as are my novels Earth and into a park. At best, that is down the road slow and stodgy government agencies. quite a ways. But it will only happen if we Existence ). Yes, the “ Uplift ” series has a lot of If this does happen, then we just might invest. If we dare to try. science speculation in it. And I have some navigate that mine field of failure modes I authorial tricks I plan to use, in an attempt to The publishing landscape is changing: is discussed earlier! Indeed, this fluke invention cleverly make everything fit. But even if those the paperback novel doomed? may be just what’s needed, in order to be the gimmicks and innovations turn out to be No. But it will become a much more variable first sapient race to make it to the stars. logical and entertaining, this is still playing commodity. You’ll buy it from a kiosk, with a Is interstellar travel an unrealistic dream tennis with the net down. Lots of ideas. But cover of your own choosing. given that we have abandoned the Moon no attempt to say “this is how things are.” Overpopulation, resource depletion, and seem nowhere near sending humans Who are your favourite SF writers and why? global warming and religious to Mars? I suppose Earth and Existence were both fundamentalism all seem to be conspiring Oh, humans will go to Mars. I get to see nifty modelled somewhat on the works of the to create a very bleak future for concepts as an advisor to NASA’s Innovative greatest SF writer of the 1960s, the British humanity? Will humans still be around and Advanced Concepts Group. But as I said, wonder John Brunner. His stunning fifty years from now? life is complicated and nature a rigorous task- projections, like Stand on Zanzibar , shook up Yep. I’ll even offer you a wager, you and any mistress! It will come slower than science the world of ideas. reader of Odyssey ! Fifty quid? Seriously: those fiction expected. And when it does, we may Some authors achieve the pinnacle in SF, who shout criticism at failure modes and have to redefine “human” a bit when we talk creating a Self-Preventing Prophecy, a tale so mistakes – such critics are extremely valuable about the astronauts we send forth. stirring and scary that millions of readers then to society. They are the T-Cells of our You've returned to the “ Uplift ” universe do whatever they can to prevent it ever civilization’s immune system acting against many times in your novels. What’s the coming true. We are probably alive today error. Indeed, we are the only civilization in appeal? because of Dr Strangelove . We are free human history that deliberately fostered the Well, what’s not appealing about dolphins in because of Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four .
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