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Day 3 – Current Politics in Virginia

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Day 3 – Current Politics in Virginia 9/28/2017 Day 3 – Current Politics in Virginia 2017 Statewide Elections Governor: Ralph Northam (D) -- incumbent Lieutenant Governor Ed Gillespie (R) Cliff Hyra (Libertarian) 2017 Statewide Elections Lieutenant Governor: Justin Fairfax (D) Jill Vogel (R) 1 9/28/2017 2017 Statewide Elections Attorney General Mark Herring (D) John Adams (R) The Virginia State Senate is not up for election this year; state senators were elected to 4-year terms in 2015, and will not run again until 2019 Virginia House of Delegates Elections 2 9/28/2017 House of Delegates District 96 Brenda Pogge (R ) House of Delegates District 93 Mike Mullin (D) District 93 (Mullin) and District 96 (Pogge) Boundary in Williamsburg 96 96 93 3 9/28/2017 Senate District 3 Tommy Norment (R) State Senate District 1 Monty Mason (D) Senate District 3 (Norment) and 1 (Mason) Boundaries in Williamsburg 3 3 1 4 9/28/2017 H of R District 2 Scott Taylor (R) H of R District 1 Rob Wittman(R) Congressional District 1 1 (Wittman) and 2 2 (Taylor) Boundaries in Williamsburg 5 9/28/2017 House of Delegates Elections Virginia Demographic Projections 6 9/28/2017 Population Changes Percent of Population by Place of Birth: 7 9/28/2017 8 9/28/2017 9 9/28/2017 What’s Going to Happen After the 2020 census? When and Why Does the US Re-Apportion Seats in the House of Representatives? In Article 1, Section 2, the Constitution includes the phrase: [An] Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct. When and Why Does the US Re-Apportion Seats in the House of Representatives? Purpose Representation Allocation of Tax revenues 10 9/28/2017 HOW DOES THE US RE-APPORTION? Step 1: 2020 US Population (est): 334,000,000 Step 2: H of Representatives Districts: 334,000,000 / 435 = Step 3: Population per District: 767,000 HOW DOES THE US RE-APPORTION? Step 4: Virginia Population 2020 (est): 8,800,000 Step 5: House Seats allocated to Virginia: 8,800,000 / 767,000 = 11.46 HOW DOES THE US RE-APPORTION? Virginia gets 11 seats, with .46 left over. This is almost ½ of a seat, which equals . .46 x 767,000 = 352,820 “left over” people 11 9/28/2017 HOW DOES THE US RE-APPORTION? Step 6: States with “left-over” people are then listed according to the size of their “left-over” population seats are allocated one at a time to the states on the list. 12 9/28/2017 HOW DO THE STATES REDISTRICT? In 6 states, redistricting is done by an independent commission In the rest of the states, it’s done by the state legislature 7 states contain only one congressional district Redistricting is also done for state and county offices Gerrymandering -Elbridge Gerry -districts looked like a salamander -therefore, “Gerrymander” 13 9/28/2017 Role Of The Department Of Justice In Overseeing Redistricting Voting Rights Act of 1964 – DOJ oversees redistricting in Southern states 2013 – Shelby Decision – Va and other states no longer under extra supervision Virginia and the Voting Rights Act Charge - General Assembly had “packed” black voters into one district The Virginia Legislature's 2012 redistricting was found unconstitutional, replaced with a court-ordered redistricting on January 16, 2016 Eastern Virginia District Court said that Congressional Districts cannot be gerrymandered for partisan gain. Virginia and the Voting Rights Act Issue was 3rd and 4th District of Va 3rd District hopped the James River in several places and divided multiple locality boundaries Created 89% majorities for black Representative Bobby Scott (D) while surrounding Republican incumbents enjoyed majorities of 16-24%. 14 9/28/2017 Virginia and the Voting Rights Act Subsequent appeals by Republican lawmakers to the Supreme Court were unsuccessful. 1 result – in previously Republican District 4, Democrat was elected in 2016 Original Revised 15 9/28/2017 Current Virginia At the beginning of 2017, Virginia was one of 19 states under divided government Statewide offices (Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, United States Senators) controlled by Democrats. The Democratic candidate for President also carried the state in 2016 House of Delegates and State Senate Controlled by Republicans (House 66-34, Senate 21-19) House of Representatives – 7 Republicans, 4 Democrats Solutions to Gerrymandering Nationwide, attention is being focused on how states will redistrict after the 2020 census. One Virginia 2021 is one of the most active groups in Virginia right now. https://www.onevirginia2021.org/ Conclusions Our federal system allocates significant power to the states As Franklin answered (when asked what kind of government was being created in 1787 in Philadelphia), “A Republic, if you can keep it.” To quote former Speaker of the House Thomas P. (“Tip”)O’Neill, “All politics is local.” 16.
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