CONTENTS

Contents

EDITORIAL Faster, cleaner, smarter Editor’s letter Nick Molho 10 Sam Robinson 4 Code of ethics? Director’s note Christina Blacklaws 12 Ryan Shorthouse 5 A digital NHS: is it all good news? Letters to the editor 6 Rachel Hutchings 13 Assistive policy for assistive technology Clive Gilbert 14 DIGITAL SOCIETY Mind the digital skills gap Updating Whitehall Helen Milner 15 Daniel Korski CBE 7 Skype session with… Levelling up the tech sector Nir Eyal Matt Warman MP 9 Phoebe Arslanagić-Wakefield 17

Page 25 Damian Collins MP calls for a fundamental overhaul of the way we regulate social media

Bright Blue is an independent think tank and pressure group for liberal conservatism.

Director: Ryan Shorthouse Chair: Matthew d’Ancona Board of Directors: Rachel Johnson, Alexandra Jezeph, Diane Banks, Phil Clarke & Richard Mabey

Editors: Sam Robinson & Phoebe Arslanagić-Wakefield brightblue.org.uk Page 18 The Centre Write interview: Print: Aquatint | aquatint.co.uk Rory Stewart Design: Chris Solomons Jan Baker CONTENTS 3

THE CENTRE WRITE INTERVIEW: DIGITAL WORLD ARTS & BOOKS Rory Stewart OBE 18 Digital borders? The AI Economy: Work, Wealth and Welfare Will Somerville 28 in the Robot Age (Roger Bootle) DIGITAL DEMOCRACY Defying the gravity effect? Diane Banks 35 Detoxifying public life David Henig 30 Inadequate Equilibria (Eliezer Yudkowsky) Catherine Anderson 22 Blockchain to the rescue? Sam Dumitriu 36 Our thoughts are not our own Dr Jane Thomason 31 Bagehot: The Life and Times of the Jim Morrison 23 Greatest Victorian (James Grant) Rethinking media regulation BRIGHT BLUE POLITICS Keith Tomlinson 37 Damian Collins MP 25 Why I’m a Bright Blue MP Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Is social media bad for democracy? David Simmonds CBE MP 33 Strategies (Nick Bostrom) Alex Krasodomski-Jones and Research update Anne le Roux 38 Phoebe Arslanagić-Wakefield 26 Phoebe Arslanagić-Wakefield 34 Film: 1917 Joseph Silke 39

Page 9 The UK’s tech sector presents us with an enormous opportunity post-Brexit, writes Matt Warman MP

Page 15 Nick Molho on how technology can save the climate

Page 7 New technologies are ready to revolutionise public service delivery, says Daniel Korski CBE EDITORIAL 4

Sam Robinson is a Editor’s letter Researcher at Bright Blue and Editor of Centre Write

echnology has developed at breakneck speed over the last sits down with us to discuss the future of London, how he will tackle couple of decades, and this shows no sign of stopping. crime and air pollution, and the direction of the Conservative Party. T Inventions that once seemed like science fiction, like self- It is not just the economy that can be positively transformed by driving cars or thought-controlled machinery, are now on the cusp of technology. CEO of PUBLIC, Daniel Korski (p.7), outlines how commercial viability. By the 2030s, as much as 30% of jobs could public services could be revolutionised by ensuring innovative tech be at risk of automation. The sheer amount of available data and the startups are more involved in their delivery. Similarly, the Chair of the emergence of ever more sophisticated algorithms has fundamental Technology and Law Policy Commission Christina Blacklaws (p.12) implications for everything from politics to healthcare to marketing. sees technology playing a potentially pivotal role in the criminal justice Much of the debate around technology emphasises the threats system, although whether this role is beneficial or malicious will depend new developments pose to our way of life. Social media has, to a on how AI and algorithms are implemented. Rachel Hutchings (p.13), significant extent, toxified public debate and intimidated a number of Researcher at the Nuffield Trust, reviews some of the encouraging MPs, as Catherine Anderson (p.22), CEO of the Jo Cox Foundation, developments in healthcare technology as she outlines how the NHS points out. Not only this, but as OneSub founder Jim Morrison (p.23) can grasp the opportunities these bring. Clive Gilbert (p.14), editor highlights, the very architecture of social media promotes polarising of dispATches, highlights the incredible advances made in assistive echo chambers. However, the question of how to respond to the technology in recent years and where the UK could improve further. rise of social media is a fraught one. There is a balance to be struck The way we deploy technological innovations will also shape the between freedom of speech and online safety, as former DCMS kind of country we are on the world stage. Post-Brexit, the migration Committee Chair Damian Collins MP (p.25) notes. But, as the system is facing its biggest challenge in decades. Technology may author of Hooked and Indistractable Nir Eyal (p.17) tells us in our help deliver the overhaul it needs, according to Will Somerville Skype session, it is important that in regulating social media we do (p.28), UK Senior Fellow at the Migration Policy Institute. David not ignore the role personal responsibility has to play in social media Henig (p.30), Director of the UK Trade Policy Project, suggests consumption. In our letter exchange, Alex Krasodomski-Jones, that awareness of technology developments is an important basis Director of the Centre for the Analysis of Social Media at Demos, for effective decisions on trade policy. International aid is another debates the impact of social media upon democracy with crucial pillar of Britain’s ‘soft power’ but one that has been much our Researcher Phoebe Arslanagić-Wakefield (p.26). maligned in recent years after a string of high-profile scandals. Dr Yet technology also brings plenty of opportunity. Britain has a Jane Thomason (p.31), CEO of Fintech Worldwide, makes the vibrant and dynamic tech sector which will not only deliver billions case for blockchain technology as a means of increasing efficiency in investment but act as an “engine of social mobility”, says Matt and rebuilding confidence in international aid. Warman MP (p.9). Chief Executive of the Good Things Foundation As the ferocity of the debate around the Government’s decision Helen Milner (p.15) adds that if we can bridge the digital skills to allow Huawei access to Britain’s 5G network showed, the gap, the economy is set to be turbocharged by a more productive technological developments of the coming decades are not simply workforce. Besides delivering more growth, technology can also a convenience that will bring faster internet and more Netflix. They deliver green growth: facilitating technological innovation will will change the landscape of our society in profound ways. With undoubtedly play a central role in achieving the UK’s 2050 net Britain leaving the EU and looking to reshape its economic model, zero emissions target, according to the Executive Director of the there is a window of opportunity to capitalise on technology in Aldersgate Group Nick Molho (p.10). order to drive growth, cut emissions, improve living standards for In our Centre Write interview, London mayoral candidate Rory marginalised groups, and even change the nature of governance Stewart (p.18) details the pitfalls of social media in politics as well itself. I hope that this edition of Centre Write offers insight on how as the enormous potential of London’s burgeoning tech sector, as he these opportunities can best be grasped. EDITORIAL 5

Ryan Shorthouse is Director’s note the Founder and Chief Sceptical, but not complacent Executive of Bright Blue

ow all the political shenanigans of of businesses are actively adopting artificial for so long, it becomes harder to decipher 2019 are out of the way, with the intelligence, or soon plan to. They also what requires attention, and urgently. It is NConservative Party achieving an found that overall business spending on evidence, and having high expectations unprecedented electoral victory even after information and communication technology, around the rigour of such evidence, that a decade in power, Boris and his top team machinery and other equipment has barely is key here. We need to develop our must turn from campaigning to governing. budged in real terms since the turn of the “factfulness”, as the late Hans Rosling put it. Good ministers need vision and millennium. But scepticism cannot just lead to constant eloquence, but they also very much need That is not to deny that there will be mistrust and inaction – rather, when the healthy scepticism: a mindset of thinking sometimes profound effects, both positive evidence is robust and overwhelming, it critically about, and seeking evidence and negative. Automation will wipe out strengthens the case for action. before accepting or rejecting, arguments lots of jobs. Policymakers need to prepare There remains some suspicion, presented to them. They need good people for – and minimise the pain of – encouraged by some right-wing politicians, nonsense detectors, basically. the transition to new job opportunities, especially across the Atlantic, of acting All around them, inside and outside especially those with the lowest to tackle one of the greatest and gravest government, are people pushing their pet educational qualifications. challenges we now face: climate change. projects. An intensive media – both traditional But we should not exaggerate the Warnings of extinction, with protestors and social – demanding rapid responses. infiltration and impact of our current demanding radical restrictions on our Campaigners, desperate to raise their profile, technological trends. As the economist current ways of life, arouse suspicion. increasingly deploying provocative and Ha-Joon Chang writes in his book 23 Yes, the prophesising and demands exaggerated opinions. Ministers need to think things they don’t tell you about capitalism, of such activists are unnecessarily and thoroughly before going on to prioritise policy there is a tendency to overstate the unhelpfully alarmist. Nevertheless, the efforts and investments. influence of contemporary technology, science on climate change really is solid. As A very trendy topic of public debate is especially relative to historical innovation. Professor Steven Pinker, famously optimistic the transformative effects of technology, on He claims that the internet has certainly about the state of modern capitalist societies, the way we work, travel and live. We are told changed the way we communicate, but wrote in his recent book Enlightenment Now: that a fourth industrial revolution – led by hasn’t really made much difference to “Exactly four out of 69,406 authors of peer- rambunctious robots – will utterly transform productivity levels, and previous inventions reviewed articles in the scientific literature the type and volume of work we do, with such as the electric washing machine rejected the hypothesis of anthropogenic widespread worklessness predicted. and iron have been more impactful on climate change.” Time for some scepticism. Fears of our economy, freeing time for women Legislating for net zero emissions by machines taking over and making us to focus on paid rather than domestic 2050 is welcome, but actually delivering redundant is a decades-long obsession labour. Likewise, the telegram cut the time it will be a tremendous task. The deep in popular culture. And, well, here we are it previously took to send messages by decarbonisation we need, as the Committee today with record levels of employment. A ships much more substantially than the for Climate Change has outlined, relies recent report by PricewaterhouseCoopers internet did from fax machines. heavily on more technological innovation found only a small minority – 6% – of all Those with a sceptical mindset do have – hydrogen heating systems, carbon UK jobs in 2013 were of a kind that did a weakness, however: complacency. In capture and storage, electrified transport, not exist in 1990. A recent survey by the fairness, if you’ve been bombarded with and much more. Ministers, across different Royal Society of Arts found that just 14% exaggerated, even erroneous, arguments departments, really need to focus on this. EDITORIAL 6

Letters to the editor

Send your letters to [email protected]

Professor Alister Scott’s column (‘Tightening our green belts’, Autumn 2019) perfectly outlines solutions for making our world more sustainable that can be done at a local level. Climate change is a real threat that has many millennials, like myself, concerned for the future of the planet. The debate on how to best tackle this issue is primarily focused on topics such as divesting from fossil fuels or developing renewable energy, yet not much is discussed on what can be done locally. Even though green belts are often seen as “constraints to development and growth,” the benefits outweigh the risks. Apart from adding environmental benefits, these areas can also be used for agriculture, helping the local economy, as well as for pleasure, especially in large cities such as London. Therefore, as Professor Scott points out, “We need to change how our green belts are viewed and used in policy and practice and make them more productive spaces.” Andrew Boff’s piece (‘A familial place’, Autumn 2019) shines a light on the worrying trend of “Manhattanisation” Anastasia Kourtis Bright Blue member afflicting both London’s housing stock and her skyline. It is troubling to see that not only has Sadiq Khan abolished targets for affordable family homes but decreed that 69% of social housing should have just one bedroom. More people, invariably De Zylva (‘Greener, wilder, healthier’, Autumn 2019) less well-off than average, are being cramped into smaller areas is right to highlight the need for localised support for and into inadequate housing. With 360,000 children now living implementing integrated nature initiatives in urban spaces. in overcrowded homes, this mayoralty will only aggravate this I was glad to see a recognition that policy implementation severe problem. in this area is difficult due to people seeing such plans as At the other end of the scale, the proliferation of skyscrapers, “trendy and superficial.” Yet, as he points out, London’s with meagre amounts of affordable housing, is warping our ‘urban forest’ is estimated to provide annual benefits of £132 skyline and forcibly reforming the intricate web of streets at million. As is implied, de-urbanisation of metropolitan spaces ground-level. They are constructions that are neither family- could be an opening for significant ecological progress. friendly nor conducive to active civic life. With society searching for ways to reduce emissions, de- As Boff concludes, it would be better if policymakers focused urbanising the city landscape must be an option. more on “common sense” than bureaucratic “bean-counting”.

Jack Fulton Bright Blue member William Kinsella Bright Blue member DIGITAL SOCIETY 7

Updating Whitehall Daniel Korski CBE is the co-founder and CEO of PUBLIC New technologies are ready to revolutionise public service delivery if government is willing to take the opportunity, says Daniel Korski CBE

icture a world where the year 1999 and 2019 exist side by side: P where just down the hall from one another, two people do the same job, seek essentially the same outcome and get paid the same salary. Only, one of those people uses a brand new technology to deliver an efficient, high quality service and the other is stabbing keys to input the basics into Windows. This is what government digital services look like today.

“ Transparency in supply chain processes, new payment models, rewarding commercial decision- makers when they buy innovation and it pays off; there are so many solutions, many of which are really supports new entrants to the market, and artificial intelligence (AI) and 5G: both quite simple, but will require provides a platform for innovative people, technologies are fresh, exciting, and filled Whitehall to break out of its business and ideas to rethink how these with the promise of untold possibilities mould to deliver.” services work. for innovation which companies across Yet public sector players have been slow the globe of all sizes and sectors are just Hyperbole? Sure; but this is a metaphor for to make the wholesale structural changes beginning to explore. a world where one authority uses a startup’s required to fully realise digital government. Ten years ago, AI was science fiction. technology (Cyan Forensics) to scan for criminal There are exceptions, but I would argue that Now, it’s an umbrella term for a game- content on a device in just three minutes, while – as a country – we are at risk of failing to changing family of technologies that are another uses the industry standard – taking a full deliver on the promise of new technologies, driving increased productivity and efficiency 20 times longer. failing to take advantage of opportunities to on a daily basis. The public sector has In the last five years, GovTech – improve the delivery of core public services been relatively quick off the mark in its use technology that will fundamentally alter how and, as a result, failing the millions of us of AI; the technology has been deployed citizens interact with public services – has who use such services daily. to great effect by central government, local exploded onto the scene, and has become A society that makes our lives safer, government, and others – including the a thriving sector of its own expected to more fulfilling, and more productive is NHS and Serious Fraud Office. be worth £20 billion by 2025. However, possible. It will be possible to transform The truth is, we should be moving the promise of this technology can only public services, so long as public faster. In just five years, the private sector be realised if we have a government-wide and private sector players can work has embraced UK AI on a massive scale strategy that embraces new technologies, together to make that happen. Take – Google’s acquisition of DeepMind for DIGITAL SOCIETY 8

>> $400 million in 2014 fired the starting you can imagine citizens having with the to guarantee that UK tech attracts the skills gun on a boom that saw a record $1 services they depend on. Government has and investment it will need going forward. billion invested in UK AI companies in the gone all-in to promote the technology in Second, it’s time to embrace digital first six months of 2019. Investment in UK 2019, introducing the new AI Sector Deal, government. AI in 2018 topped out at more than the guidance for public sector bodies on using Strategy is nothing without execution. 49 other countries in Europe combined. AI applications, and the formation of a new Sector deals, guidance and strategies are Startups are a huge part of that. Five of AI Advisory Council to “supercharge the not worth the paper they’re written on if the UK’s 16 ‘unicorns’ (startup companies Artificial Intelligence sector”. These are all the people and processes that bring the with a valuation over $1 billion US) are in fairly recent developments given that Google public and private sectors together kill real the AI space. purchased DeepMind in 2014, but where innovation before it has even begun. The rollout of 5G across 20 UK cities the public sector has lost time on AI, it has Casting my eye down the list of startups this year makes it the newest development made up for it through ambition. Similarly working out of PUBLIC Hall – PUBLIC’s I’ve touched on in this article, yet arguably in the 5G sphere, a new accelerator is new GovTech hub in Whitehall – what the one with least hype. Don’t get me testament to the Government’s ambition in stands out is the extraordinary potential for wrong, it’s great that I can now order pizza this area too: a welcome exploration of how technology to radically improve core services. faster than ever before; but it would be startups can exploit the technology in the Take, just as an example, the health service: naive to think that this is the technology development of new products and services. whether it’s digitally streamlining referrals used to its full potential. Across Europe, to specialist services (Cinapsis); rethinking startups are deploying 5G connectivity in “ A society that makes our patient consent (Flynotes); or combining sectors from cybersecurity to smart cities, lives safer, more fulfilling, behavioural insights and artificial intelligence and we cannot afford to miss out on the and more productive is to increase the quality of life and survival opportunities for transformation presented. possible. It will be possible times for cancer patients (the award-winning 5G is already a massive opportunity for to transform public Vine Health) – the future of technology in the partnerships with the private sector. In the services, so long as public NHS goes far beyond ‘axe the fax’; it is start- West Midlands, the Government is already and private sector players ups like the ones mentioned here that will be developing a region-wide 5G testbed can work together to make the instigators of that future. exploring use cases and business models that happen.” With opportunities for digital in mobility, citizen wellbeing, construction transformation staring decision makers in and manufacturing. Trial programmes To keep up this momentum after Brexit, the face, policymakers have been exploring – conducted in partnership with Bosch – the UK is going to have to stay ahead of the route to digital government. NHSX have already realised a 1% improvement the competition at every turn. In this regard, launched in early 2019 to “bring the in manufacturing productivity – a vital gain we’re doing well – UK investment in benefits of modern technology to every in an industry with tight margins – while a technology is significantly higher than that patient and clinician”, and “combine the partnership with BT explored the possibility of France and Germany (although they are best talent from government, the NHS and of using 5G connected ambulances to catching up); and the UK Government has industry”; similar programmes are in motion more effectively triage A&E patients. strategies and programmes to foster and across Whitehall and further afield, but For the UK to guarantee the benefit of support innovation across a wide gamut of initiatives with this level of ambition are the advancements touched upon here – as sectors and technologies. Initiatives such exception. To truly harness the value from well as many others that could help secure as the Office for AI and the Centre for Data technology, public buyers need to further a better-governed world – I have three Ethics and Innovation (CDEI) are evidence explore new ways of working and deliver a recommendations. of the work being done to make digitisation new model for public services. First, double down on support for the of the UK economy happen. Third, build the platform from which tech sector. With all of this in mind, it is entrepreneurs can engage and transform. In a recent interview, the CEO of disappointing to read reports that a number We founded PUBLIC not just so that Graphcore – a UK AI chip-maker – spoke of London boroughs are not yet 5G ready; we could back great ideas; we did it of the potential for AI to transform on a a stark reminder that the Government to break down barriers, reconciling the grand scale. Medicine, law, finance – cannot afford to rest on its laurels. At every inherent tensions that prevent pioneering there’s a potential role for AI in pretty level, it will be essential to amplify support public buyers from doing business with much every sector and any interaction for and commitment to the digital economy groundbreaking entrepreneurs. DIGITAL SOCIETY 9

>> We’ve found that what’s needed to models, rewarding commercial decision- effective UK response. do this is simple ideas. Ideas like one, single makers when they buy innovation and it pays I’ve said this many times in the past but online system for accessing and bidding for off; there are so many solutions, many of it bears repeating: a system that promotes public sector contracts or a procurement which are really quite simple, but will require the participation of startups in the delivery innovation team to champion new models of Whitehall to break out of its mould to deliver. of public services isn’t just going to be the procurement and market engagement. I’ve Whether or not you agree that the most innovative, it’ll be the one that is best said before that G-Cloud, the platform for technologies I’ve discussed here are set protected from exposure. When Carillion public sector buyers to choose and buy cloud to be game-changers or not, the UK’s failed, the sheer volume of government computing services, is not fit for purpose – response to each is already in motion. contracts held drove the knife further and and is just one of many that startups must Make no mistake however, the most further in. Outsourcing is essential, but grapple with to secure public contracts. important technological development for it has to deliver the digital transformation From there, what next? Transparency society right now is GovTech, and the that the public deserves, and to do this in supply chain processes, new payment recommendations here will be critical to an government must level the playing field.

Matt Warman MP is Levelling up the tech sector Parliamentary Under Secretary at the Department for Digital, There is good reason to be optimistic about the UK tech sector’s potential, Culture, Media and Sport writes Matt Warman MP

rom the Bletchley Park codebreakers an immense force for good – it is a major this is something to be proud of. to Tim Berners-Lee and the invention driver of productivity and opportunity. There are more than 2.1 million people F of the World Wide Web, the UK has a The power of digital is transforming our working in digital tech jobs and the sector rich heritage of technologies that we should economy, our public services, how we learn contributes £184 billion to the economy be truly proud of. There is no nation on and connect, the entertainment we enjoy, and every year. The demand for these roles is Earth that could stand on a better platform the communities we live in – and this pace of growing at pace – almost three times the to make the most out of leaving the EU. change will only intensify in the future. rate of the financial services sector. This historic moment is the perfect The Health Secretary has recently set time to not just look back at the innovative out how technology and AI is vital for the “ This Conservative record of our great country, but also a NHS, in order to bring it into the 21st century Government is chance to look ahead and think about what and humanise a difficult and demanding unashamedly pro-tech.” we want to achieve over the coming years. environment by freeing up medical Since the country voted to leave in 2016, professionals to do more of the work that The industry is expanding 2.6 times our tech sector has gone from strength to they love. This is a Government that will seize faster than the rest of the UK economy and strength – despite the naysayers. Investment the opportunities of Brexit by being joined- this is reflected in job creation: as well as into UK technology companies has more up in every sense, and not least by building technically focused roles such as software than doubled since the referendum, hitting the infrastructure that will mean there is developers and data scientists, tech a record of £9 billion last year – more than connectivity across our whole country. companies are employing accountants, any other European country. The UK is already home to world-leading lawyers and HR managers. Our tech sector is one of our most tech companies. Six UK cities ranked This job growth is not limited to London, creative and pioneering industries, amongst the top 26 cities in the world for and this Government will continue to level and this Conservative Government is raising venture capital in 2019, and we up opportunity right across the country. unashamedly pro-tech, because we believe generate more billion-dollar tech businesses Birmingham, for example, saw 75,000 that, harnessed properly, technology is than any other country on the continent – job openings created in its sector in 2018. DIGITAL SOCIETY 10

>> Newcastle had 30,000 jobs advertised, be announcing the winning projects of our the Government’s trade policy in the years Sheffield added 26,000 new job openings. £30 million competition to spark a tech ahead. In the first half of last year alone, the But there is always more that we can do revolution in the countryside and help rural sector attracted $6.7 billion of investment, to support the sector. The sector is hungry Britain seize the opportunities of 5G. with more than half of those investments for talent and government must make sure We are rebooting our training system so coming from America and Asia. Growing there is a whole pipeline, from schools to that public services, businesses and workers interest from these markets is a cause for post-doctorates. have the skills that they need to thrive. We optimism about our exciting future, not want to train up hundreds of thousands least as 2019 venture capital investment “ Since the country voted more highly skilled apprentices, in areas like in the UK leapt by 44%, outstripping the to leave in 2016, our tech coding. We are creating opportunities for growth in the rate of investment of the two sector has gone from apprentices in big new infrastructure projects tech superpowers, the US and China. strength to strength.” – hospitals, schools, transport projects Post-Brexit opportunities for the tech and our multi-billion pound fibre and 5G sector are vast, and we will ensure a Indeed, our tech sector is an engine programme. This year, we will also introduce thriving economy driven by world-leading of social mobility, and we have a fantastic an entitlement so adults without basic digital technology that benefits everyone. We and growing network of regional tech skills will have the opportunity to undertake are clear that we will continue to be clusters – from cyber security in Belfast new digital qualifications free of charge. unashamedly pro-tech; spreading its benefits to video games in Dundee. We have tech As we leave the EU and expand our more widely; pioneering pro-innovation powerhouses in Leeds, Oxford, Newcastle trading relations around the world, we will regulation; protecting safety and security; and Edinburgh – home to the UK’s largest be driven by the opportunities provided by and preserving a free and open internet. We technology incubator. We will also soon technology and they will be at the heart of have much to be optimistic about.

Nick Molho is Faster, cleaner, smarter Executive Director of the Aldersgate Group

Nick Molho writes that facilitating technological innovation will be central to achieving net zero

hilst Brexit will undoubtedly that period. Whilst this is indeed impressive, efficiency in buildings, switching to zero remain a dominant theme in the bulk of this progress is due to emissions emission vehicles and vans, and completing W 2020, the new Government going down in the power sector thanks to the decarbonisation of the power sector. will need to press on with delivering the success of policies to grow the share of progress on the climate change and renewable electricity and move away from “ Technological innovation environmental agenda. It is clear that policy coal power. doesn’t hold all the decisions in this parliamentary term will However, the UK now has a significant answers to get to net zero; determine whether the UK is on a pathway challenge ahead if the country is to be on innovation in new business that will credibly allow it to achieve net zero a demonstrable pathway to reach net zero models is going to be just emissions by 2050 and reverse the decline emissions. There are two key aspects to as important.” of the natural environment. that challenge. The first is that the UK will When it comes to the net zero emissions need to accelerate action in areas where The second is that the UK will need target, the UK is not starting from scratch, technology solutions to cut emissions are to start tackling the decarbonisation of having cut its emissions by around 44% well known, but policy efforts to support more complex sectors, such as heavy between 1990 and 2018, with the investment to date have been wholly industry, agriculture, heating and long- economy growing by about two thirds in inadequate. This includes improving energy distance transport (in particular heavy duty DIGITAL SOCIETY 11

>> vehicles, shipping and aviation). This is where innovation has a key role to play to deliver a significant dent in emissions. For example, carbon capture and storage is essential for cutting emissions from heavy industry; hydrogen could act as a clean fuel for industry and long-distance transport and could possibly also help meet some of the UK’s heating needs; direct air capture could help take out carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and deliver much needed ‘negative emissions’. However, for policy to be effective in getting to net zero emissions, it is important to be clear what we mean by innovation. Most of the technologies that are needed are an essential part of understanding what energy technologies like offshore wind, to get to net zero emissions already exist in does and doesn’t work and how best to a successful innovation policy is one that some form. Where innovation is needed is design policy. works hand in hand with market creation not so much in inventing new technologies Second, history shows that government- measures to grow the demand for new but rather in helping existing ones to rapidly backed institutions have an essential role products and technologies. For instance, gain in maturity and be deployed on a to play in rolling out complex technologies, supporting innovation in carbon capture commercial scale. especially those that have multiple and storage needs to work hand in hand It is also important to appreciate that infrastructure requirements. The UK’s with policies to grow the market for ultra- technological innovation doesn’t hold all transition from town gas to natural gas in low carbon industrial products. This can the answers to get to net zero; innovation in the late 1960s and early 1970s, which include incentives to store carbon dioxide, new business models is going to be just as took only 14 years, is a good example. changes to public procurement rules, as important. For instance, retailers wanting to The Gas Council played an essential role well as market standards that drive down be more resource efficient can’t just rely on in facilitating the development of bulk gas the permissible level of embedded carbon selling more resource efficient products to supplies from the North Sea, co-ordinating in products over time. improve their environmental footprint. They the roll-out of a national gas grid and will also need to think about whether their overseeing the installation of gas boilers “ Most of the technologies business strategies need to evolve from in people’s homes. This included a crucial that are needed to get to a model currently based mainly on selling communications role to help sell the net zero emissions already goods to one based increasingly on leasing benefits and safety of gas central heating exist in some form. Where products to consumers, who then return to the public. innovation is needed is not products back at the end of their useful Third, government policy should so much in inventing new lives so they can be reconditioned. encourage low-carbon innovation to be technologies but rather in As recently argued in a recent report carefully joined up with digital innovation. helping existing ones to from Vivid Economics and the UK Energy The rapid global roll-out of online cash rapidly gain in maturity.” Research Centre, which studied lessons dispensers, which took around 22 years, learnt from past examples of rapid happened because the development Technological innovation undoubtedly innovation, accelerating technological of cash dispensers coincided with that has a critical role to play to get us to net innovation to deliver net zero requires of computerised systems and online zero emissions. To be effective, the ambition carefully designed complimentary algorithms. Looking ahead, digital of the Government’s innovation policy measures. The first one is that the innovation could help make the take-up must match the scale of the challenge Government must support – and put of energy efficiency, low-carbon heating ahead of us. It must also look beyond the meaningful funding behind – large scale and transport technologies a lot more research and development stage and must trials of new technologies. Technology accessible and desirable to the public. incentivise advances in business models trials won’t always go smoothly but they Fourth, as we have seen with renewable and technologies in equal measure. DIGITAL SOCIETY 12

Christina Blacklaws Code of ethics? is Chair of the Technology and Law Policy Commission and Immediate Past Christina Blacklaws sees enormous potential for using President of the Law artificial intelligence in legal processes – but also grave risks Society of England and Wales

he rapid growth in the use algorithms deny individuals the ability to In response, the Commission has of artificial intelligence and assess whether an algorithmic decision made ambitious and comprehensive T algorithms across all areas of is legitimate, justified or legal. This recommendations. There is a need public and private life has prompted opacity can emerge from secrecy in the for a range of new mechanisms and plenty of debate and no little amount development stage, or a desire by private institutional arrangements to improve the of concern. The United Kingdom has developers to protect their intellectual oversight of algorithms used in the justice an opportunity to become a beacon for property, or simply due to the technical system. This should be done through the technology-driven justice, but it must complexity of the algorithm. creation of a statutory code of practice be bold in order to capitalise on this Finally, algorithms are not being for algorithms in the justice system under opportunity. critically assessed. This lack of scrutiny the Data Protection Act; by enhancing Amidst an often febrile atmosphere, is generating significant risks. This is the capacity and role of the Information wanting to separate the facts from the because algorithmic systems encode Commissioner’s Office; by giving the fiction, we set up the Technology and assumptions and systematic patterns Centre for Data Ethics and Innovation Law Policy Commission to examine which can result in discriminatory outputs. a statutory footing; and by creating a the use of algorithms in the criminal The way input data is labelled, measured national register of algorithms in use in the justice system, and to suggest and classified is subjective and can justice system. recommendations for how policy-makers embed bias. should react to the development of The process of training data itself is “ The United Kingdom has these technologies. almost certain to be biased. There is no an opportunity to become There were three main findings from way to truly measure crimes committed in a beacon for technology- our research. society; only proxies such as convictions driven justice.” First, there is widespread use of or, more problematically, individuals algorithms in the criminal justice system, arrested or charged. If, as is commonly The protections relating to algorithms and significant variety in this use. accepted, the justice system under-serves should be clarified and strengthened. Algorithms are in use by police forces, certain populations or over-polices others, This should include provisions for crime labs, courts, lawyers, parole officers these biases will be reflected in the data. ensuring meaningful human intervention and more. The ways that algorithms are Algorithms also rely on data identifying in algorithmic decision-making and deployed are impressively varied, with shared characteristics and patterns to mandating the publication of data current applications including DNA reveal insights. In so doing, an algorithm protection impact assessments. profiling, predictive crime mapping, will naturally categorise individuals into Consideration must also be given to individual risk assessment, data mining groups, without personal consideration. the procurement of algorithmic systems and social media intelligence. This presents a potential threat to human to ensure that, at all stages, they are Second, we found a lack of explicit rights if not handled carefully. Against subject to appropriate control, and that standards and a lawful basis for the use of this backdrop, concerns abound about due consideration is given to human algorithms in the criminal justice system. the possibility of dehumanised justice, rights concerns. This should include a This was concerning, as the high stakes and that in time human decision-makers statutory procurement code for algorithms in the criminal justice system demand may lack the confidence and knowledge in the criminal justice system with an careful assessment of any new systems to question or override an algorithmic enforceable duty on relevant actors to before deployment. Opaquely designed recommendation. adhere to it; a review into policy options DIGITAL SOCIETY 13

>> for mandating human rights understand, scrutinise and coordinate the proportionate use of algorithms in the considerations in technological design with appropriate use of algorithms. criminal justice system which would allow different sectors; and, explanation facilities the public to reap their benefits, while for algorithms in the criminal justice system “ Concerns abound preventing some of the greatest dangers. designed to allow individuals to understand about the possibility of The UK has a window of opportunity to how a decision has been reached and dehumanised justice.” develop a justice system that is trusted to assess whether they should seek a remedy use technology well, with a social licence through the courts. These recommendations are as to operate, and in line with the values and Finally, significant investment is ambitious as they are comprehensive. human rights underpinning criminal justice. needed to allow public bodies to develop We are confident that they map out the It must take proactive steps to seize that the in-house capabilities necessary to basis of a framework for the ethical and opportunity now.

Rachel Hutchings is A digital NHS: is it all good news? a Researcher at the Nuffield Trust

More technology will only improve the health service if it is intelligently implemented, suggests Rachel Hutchings

reating a digital NHS is a national delivered. Making more effective use of leading to earlier diagnosis and treatment. policy priority. The NHS Long data can help to design services around Despite that potential, it’s important that C Term Plan emphasised this the needs of patients and ensure they new innovations remain grounded in the commitment by promising fully digital are robustly evaluated, while digitising needs and priorities of staff and patients. secondary care services by 2024, and traditional paper-based systems, such as Even with their enthusiasm for better a new organisation called NHSX was patient notes, can improve record-keeping. technology, we know that staff are still established last July to lead on digital, We know too that the public are frequently hampered by systems that are data and technology within the health increasingly engaging with healthcare not fit for purpose. Vital workers like district service. It is an area where the NHS has services in a digital way. In 2019, 63% of nurses, for example, need technology traditionally lagged behind other sectors people said they had used the internet for that must work well in the community, yet such as banking and retail, with slow and health-related information in the previous unreliable equipment and poor connectivity unreliable technology often frustrating staff three months, and over a third looked often means they are frustrated when and patients. online for information before booking their actually using it. Yet with the digital agenda now front last GP appointment. and centre of NHS policy, and with Technology also allows people to take “ Digital transformation technology evolving at a rapid pace, what a more active role in their own healthcare, is as much about people might the opportunities and risks of this such as using an app or having control of and changing culture approach be? their medical records, and by April 2021 as it is about the Evidence shows that when all patients will have a right to an online or technology itself.” implemented appropriately, technology video consultation. It can improve access can save time, improve the quality of care between patients and clinicians or services, Equally important is having a long-term and improve communication between staff opening up new avenues for consultation strategy. Implementing new technology and patients. Genomics and precision and reducing demand elsewhere. Studies takes time and can mean changes to medicine, artificial intelligence and also show the potential for artificial existing staff roles and routines, whether patient-facing apps all offer opportunities intelligence to improve the detection of that’s in adjusting to a different online to positively transform how healthcare is conditions such as cancer – potentially system or in using a new piece of digital DIGITAL SOCIETY 14

>> equipment. And with technology technology on offer. Non-clinical staff like people with dementia, stroke and learning constantly developing, NHS organisations data analysts and project managers also disabilities. Extending digital services must also have the capacity to react to play a significant role, but recruiting and could exacerbate inequalities, and different anything new that comes along. Welcome retaining such people is a challenge for the initiatives are likely to be needed to ensure short-term funding injections will be less health service, with Agenda for Change these groups are not further disadvantaged. effective if not backed up with an approach pay restrictions meaning the NHS can This includes ways to improve digital skills, recognising the need for ongoing funding lose them to more lucrative offers from the such as the Widening Digital Participation to sustain these digital developments. As private sector. Digital roles in the NHS programme that looks to ensure services we highlighted in a recent report, if this have historically also had fewer learning are as inclusive as possible. doesn’t happen, the NHS will not get what and development opportunities than other In such a rapidly evolving environment, it should out of technology. jobs, but programmes such as Building a it is important to be realistic about what Digital transformation is as much Digital Ready Workforce are working hard needs to be done first when it comes to a about people and changing culture as to rectify this. digital NHS and the time it might take. This it is about the technology itself. Clinical Although internet use increases year on means a comprehensive and long-term staff like doctors and nurses must be year, those likely to continue to have low approach – ensuring that the health service supported with the skills and resources digital access are people over 75, carers, not only makes the best use of digital now, they need to make the best use of the those over 55 in lower social grades, and but is also prepared for the future.

Clive Gilbert is the Editor Assistive policy for of dispATches assistive technology

Impressive advances have been made in assistive technology. It is now up to politicians to ensure it reaches those who need it, argues Clive Gilbert

etter standards of living and for people with arthritis, communication standard smartphones and tablet devices. advances in medical science aids that restore the voices of people The presence of this Swiss Army knife of B mean that 22% of British people with unclear speech to predictive text gadgets in our pockets has provided endless now have some form of disability. As the software designed to reduce the number opportunities for software developers to population ages and more disabled children of keystrokes required to write a message. create apps to help disabled people in a with complex health conditions live longer, The dramatic increases in computer wide variety of contexts. Examples include this percentage is only likely to grow in the processing power and the corresponding smart canes that allow blind and visually coming decades. Ensuring people with decline in the cost of technology over the impaired people to navigate their way around impairments are able to lead full and rich lives last 20 years have heralded a period of town, real-time transcription software that will be one of the key public policy challenges unprecedented innovation. translates the spoken word for people with of the 21st century. Technology designed to hearing impairments, and a food preparation assist disabled people with everyday tasks “ Many disabled people assistant designed to help people with will be central to meeting this goal. live on low incomes and learning disabilities live more independently Assistive technology can come in find it difficult to afford by instructing them on how to cook up a meal many guises. Wheelchairs, walking sticks equipment.” on their own. and hearing aids are now the tip of an The growth of robotics, artificial iceberg that extends to almost every daily Consider the cornucopia of sensors, intelligence and other powerful new activity and routine, from easy grip cutlery cameras and other widgets found on most technologies are fuelling further innovation DIGITAL SOCIETY 15

>> for disabled people. Learning disability Government tends to support certain eligible other health and social care professionals charity Mencap has been working with groups to access technology through a would allow people’s technology needs to be virtual reality technology to ease anxieties patchwork of public services operating identified and provided for more quickly. people might have about going to the across the NHS, education providers, polling station to exercise their democratic employment programmes and social services. “ A more holistic approach right to vote by simulating the experience. The downside of such piecemeal initiatives from government and other Last year French engineers working with a is that they make it difficult to account for the public agencies is required young man living with paralysis built the first way in which the benefits of technology often to ensure that those robotic exoskeleton capable of manipulating cuts across different domains by assessing whose lives could be most all four limbs via the user’s thoughts alone. and supporting people too narrowly. For dramatically transformed Despite such breakthroughs, assistive example, technology that helps someone to by assistive technology are technology does not always reach those use a computer at work is likely to be just as able to access it.” who need it. Many disabled people live on useful to them at home. Similarly, enabling low incomes and find it difficult to afford a disabled child to keep up with the rapid There are signs that Whitehall is starting equipment. There is also a significant lack technological progression of their peers will to understand the huge benefits technology of awareness of the range of assistive help them to have fun and make friends while could bring as the UK’s demographics shift. products that are available, partly because also supporting their academic progress. Last year’s EdTech Strategy published by many devices can only be purchased There are many cracks between services the Department for Education included from little-known specialist retailers. Even through which people frequently fall. commitments to improve access to inclusive professionals who support disabled people A more holistic approach from technologies in schools and colleges, every day such as special educational needs government and other public agencies is and the 2018 Industrial Strategy aimed to teachers, social workers and occupational required to ensure that those whose lives support the creation of new technologies therapists often struggle to keep up with the could be most dramatically transformed by and services fit for an ageing society. The latest developments in technology due to a assistive technology are able to access it as Government’s promised new National lack of training and the sheer complexity and early as possible. For example, creating inter- Strategy for Disabled People, due to diversity of this ever-growing sector. agency funding streams across localities and be published by the end of 2020, is an This means society is failing to fully regions would break down silos and allow the important opportunity for policymakers to harness the opportunities that advances in money to go where it’s most needed. Better take a rounded approach to technology. technology could yield for disabled people. training for teachers, social workers and Let’s hope ministers grasp it.

Helen Milner is Mind the digital skills gap Chief Executive of the Good Things Foundation

Helen Milner sets out the benefits of bridging the digital divide

s we enter the fourth industrial friends and family around the world. The the full benefits that digital transformation revolution, there is plenty to be Government’s pledge of £5 billion to roll can bring. You can build broadband A optimistic about. The 2020s out gigabit-capable broadband across the infrastructure, but not everyone will be able are without doubt going to be a decade country by 2025 will certainly help the UK to use it. What we need alongside this is where our lives will change because of to become a global digital leader. a commitment to invest so that everyone technology. Today, technology can help But that’s not enough. The UK’s has the digital skills they need to use, and us find work and grow our businesses, significant digital skills gap places us at risk benefit from, the internet. manage our health, and connect with of falling behind and failing to capitalise on It’s no secret that the world of work is DIGITAL SOCIETY 16

>> changing, and it’s changing fast. In 20 years’ time, 90% of all jobs are going to require digital skills. With the anticipated overhaul of the UK’s immigration policy following Brexit, as well as an ageing population, three million jobs will be left unfilled by 2030. The labour market is transforming and we need to prepare ourselves for the future.

“ In a world where finding a job is near impossible without internet skills, banking and other services and distressed because they have no have the same opportunities to thrive in our are moving online, and experience of using the internet to find digital world. even access to our NHS employment. Or maybe it’s the local At Good Things Foundation, our mission is becoming increasingly butcher, worried about supermarkets is to bridge the digital divide. As the UK’s digital, too many people undercutting trade because no-one is leading digital and social inclusion charity, are being left behind.” making the case for a new online business we have supported over three million people model that could reach customers who to benefit from digital – and we are ambitious As it stands, there are 11.9 million people would be proud to support local retailers. to help millions more, so they too can realise in the UK who lack essential digital skills – It’s clear that we’re experiencing a the positive outcomes digital can provide. including 4.1 million who have never been digital skills crisis – and the UK is worse We can fix this skills and inclusion gap. online. That isn’t just older people, or out-of- off as a result. Research by the Centre for Our blueprint calls on the Government work people looking for their next job – it’s Economics and Business Research has and other partners to commit to a 100% also people who are in the workplace. There shown that investing in closing the digital digitally included nation, by promoting the are millions of people in our country who do divide will lead to a net present value of benefits of the internet, and building skills not know how to email their colleagues or £21.9 billion to the UK, with a benefit of through free essential digital skills support search the internet for solutions to problems almost £15 for every £1 invested in basic for anyone who needs it. they encounter at work. digital skills. By upskilling the nation, we Our network of thousands of hyper- will begin to accrue economic benefits local organisations – as diverse as “ By upskilling the nation, through improved employment rates, charities, libraries, community groups, we will begin to accrue increased earnings for individuals, more and social housing providers – know economic benefits through transactions shifting successfully online, their communities well, reaching some of improved employment savings to the NHS, and much more. the most excluded adults in society. Our rates, increased earnings The economic argument speaks for network partners help local people improve for individuals, more itself, but there is so much more to bridging their digital skills and gain the confidence transactions shifting the digital divide than simply strengthening they need to improve their financial successfully online, our economy. We know that there is a capability, health and wellbeing. savings to the NHS.” strong correlation between social exclusion Digital equality is the key to and digital exclusion. The Oxford Internet strengthening our economy and achieving In a world where finding a job is near Survey’s recent report showed that 40% of social justice. We urgently need the impossible without internet skills, banking respondents with the lowest income were Government, businesses and civil society and other services are moving online, and digitally excluded. organisations to work together to bridge even access to our NHS is becoming Becoming part of a digital society the digital divide. This is possible if we increasingly digital, too many people are brings with it a new set of choices and are bold and ambitious. We can close the being left behind. opportunities. Digital skills for all are digital skills and inclusion gap and reap the Perhaps it’s the lifelong factory essential if we are to ensure that all benefits for all citizens and for a stronger, worker, laid off after 30 years on the job, individuals, no matter their background, fairer nation. DIGITAL SOCIETY 17

Skype session with… Nir Eyal Nir Eyal is the author of Hooked and Indistractable

Phoebe Arslanagić-Wakefield speaks to Nir Eyal about habit forming technology, social media addiction and personal responsibility

It’s commonplace to talk about the ‘attention economy’ as a defining feature of our age, although competition for the attention of PA consumers is not a new phenomenon. However, the tools now available to innovators to build habit forming products are much more powerful. What are the implications for political and public discourse?

There are some thorny questions we need to wrestle with. I am optimistic, I think we will solve many of the challenges technology presents us with; the first generation of a technology always has problems, and we then fix and improve upon that generation. When NE you invent the ship, you invent the shipwreck.

Doesn’t that argument work on the assumption that what is good for the consumer is also good for the commercial company making PA the product? But that may not be the case; a technological improvement that sees profits increase may not be an improvement for the consumer, psychologically speaking for example.

People aren’t stupid. If something harms them, they will stop using it, with some exceptions such as children and people who are pathologically addicted. If you’re not a pathological addict or a child, for the most part, people are pretty good at figuring out what harms NE them. Every generation has its moral panic. For my generation it was television and cable news that was rotting everyone’s brain. Over the course of time, the same two things happen; human beings adapt and adopt new technology.

PA TV democratised news and has had a huge impact on public discourse. Now we have people getting their news from apps like Facebook, which have habit forming technology embedded within them. Will that change the way people relate to news and current affairs?

Yes, there will be differences, but we don’t know yet whether they are good or bad. In many ways the change is good and bad. People learn to discriminate their information sources. We’ve seen that people can inform others in the moment in a way that wasn’t possible NE before, citizen journalism is possible in a way it never was before. On the whole, there are more benefits than problems.

Do you think there is an element of paternalism to the expressions of concern and condemnation of big tech companies like Facebook that PA we see from commentators and columnists? Particularly in regards to arguments around uneducated, credulous consumers being taken in by fake news and manipulated by algorithms?

I’ll go a level further. I think its blatant competition that scares the traditional media. They are in the same exact business as these social media companies. They’re after consumers’ attention too. The business model of these tech behemoths threatens journalists; it’s in their interest to criticise these companies and not in their interest to tell you about the good these products do. No-one wants to read an NE article that says things are fine and getting better. They have every incentive in the world to paint these new technologies as scary and generate moral panic.

PA In recent years, we have seen pleas directed at the tech industry to make technology less all-consuming and addictive. What are your thoughts on regulation, should the Government step forward and regulate habit-forming technology?

Certainly, but I think we need to get very specific about what that regulation should be, it’s easy to talk in platitudes. I’ve advocated for over four years that every company of significant size using tech that may addict people should have a ‘use and abuse policy’ to identify the people who use the product to excess. If someone uses the product more than ‘X’ number of hours a week, then the company should NE reach out to the consumer with a message suggesting that they could be struggling with an addiction and stating how they can help. Gaming companies and social networks know how much we use their products, they have the data; if they wanted to help, they could. People who are pathologically addicted need extra assistance, but for the rest of us? Come on, it’s a personal responsibility issue.

PA Where do you think the line is between corporate and personal responsibility? Is it at the point of harm, as with pathological addiction?

The line is at the point where there is both harm and the inability to protect oneself from that harm. If a product harms the user, there’s not necessarily a market failure. If you don’t like Netflix or YouTube, you can stop watching. Unless you are a child or a pathological addict, NE moderating one’s behaviour takes effort but is possible.

PA Can tech help us to disseminate complicated political information better throughout the electorate?

Yes, because technology challenges surface level engagement. Someone who grows up in a very conservative, religious community can now have interactions via technology that challenge the ideas that surround them. People get very concerned about Cambridge Analytica, but there is a silver lining. Political adverts can be customised, it used to be one-size-fits-all. With proper disclosure in terms of funding NE sources, there is nothing necessarily wrong with customising a message to hit with a particular part of the population; it allows politicians to test the popularity of new ideas. The Centre Write interview: Rory Stewart OBE

Sam Robinson and Phoebe Arslanagić-Wakefield sit down with Rory Stewart to discuss how Brexit, air pollution and crime will affect London

“ I think you win battles by studying the terrain and the details; he thinks you win battles by grand optimistic speeches. But he certainly won the battle for leadership against me on that.”

Jan Baker THE CENTRE WRITE INTERVIEW 19

A lot of people are saying that politicians should get out of London more, but you’ve gone the other way – from Cumbria to London. Why is that?

If you’re looking for ways of helping people, engaging people, London is the most intense, exciting place – both in terms of the opportunities, but also sadly in terms of the need on poverty and crime.

During my last ten years I’ve seen shocking things in the north of England. But although it feels unfashionable to say it, I think if you step back and look objectively at where the need and opportunity is in Britain, London is the first. Some communities who I’ve been spending time with in the last couple of weeks, often young men who are on the edge of gangs, suffer challenges and are involved in social issues more intense than almost anywhere in the country.

“ The Left will say crime is caused by poverty, while the Right will say the solution is to lock everybody up. Those ways of looking at the world create a sense of helplessness.”

There have been a lot of calls for London to develop into a ‘Singapore-on-Thames’ post-Brexit. Do you think this is feasible or even desirable?

It’s neither feasible nor desirable. I lived in Kuala Lumpur, in Jakarta, in Hong Kong, Singapore and Dubai. The more time you spend in these cities the clearer it is that it has absolutely nothing to do with London.

The scale of London is immeasurably larger. London has a great strength, but also a challenge in its age. This tube station behind you is over 150 years old. We are a far more diverse society than the society in Singapore. But most importantly, we are the capital of the United Kingdom. The capital of a place with 70 million people in it, with the responsibilities that brings.

So if by Singapore-on-Thames you mean energy, entrepreneurialism, a sense of excellence – absolutely. But I wouldn’t want to live in Singapore. I love this city, I love all the things that make it much more complicated. And perhaps in the long run, these things may give it strengths that cities like Singapore may not have. There’s a deep resilience in the time depth of a two thousand-year old city.

More than a third of Europe’s fastest-growing tech companies are based in Britain, predominantly in London. Does Brexit endanger London’s position as a leading tech hub, and how would you protect this culture?

Brexit needs to be approached with the utmost practicality. We went too far in thinking about Brexit in terms of grand values, and not enough in terms of details. I blew up my political career on this issue. I found myself trying to make pragmatic proposals for a soft Brexit, when everybody else was making values-based arguments. Arguments for freedom on one side, for

Jan Baker THE CENTRE WRITE INTERVIEW 20

>> diversity and international co-operation on the other. I’m and people. It’s particularly true with think tanks; you can very saddened that even now, people try to frame it purely in terms of quickly start producing abstract jargon. values rather than sweating the details. If I think back to when I was in Brixton, talking to a man in the Practically speaking, there are four overwhelming issues that we market, I realised that he cares about quite straightforward things. need to look at. The first is the immigration system. London, more He wants to know that you are trying to make the area better and than anywhere, is incredibly reliant on European Union citizens. in particular promote opportunities for people. He wants to know In the tech sector, this is very extreme. An astonishing number he can trust you to actually deliver. If you can learn to really listen, of people in the tech industry are experts from European cities. and allow these conversations to challenge you, and take the time Secondly, getting the financial services relationship with Europe to really think, “Is he right to trust me? What is this person saying right will be vital for investment in these services. Thirdly, the that I wasn’t expecting?”, it’s incredibly powerful. broader story of London services connected to UK manufacturing is going to be crucial. Finally, you can struggle as an economist A vision for the city as Mayor needs to be rooted in real streets, to put a number on the question of confidence, but in the end a real places. That’s why I resist the idea of a ‘Singapore-on- huge amount of what happens in any economy is simply to do Thames’. London is puddles on pavements, a tree that’s been with people’s sense of “do I think this is the place for my future? If vandalised, a woman who’s a cleaner walking to work, big shiny we get that right, fantastic. If we get that wrong, people will begin cars charging past, shops opening and closing. If you don’t get to make small marginal calculations: ‘maybe I will move back to that, you’re not working with your city. Paris’; ‘maybe I will set up my business somewhere in Germany’.” Bright Blue research has shown that the UK region with You’re a politician who’s used social media to tremendous the highest level of concern about the impact of air effect; we all recognise #RoryWalks. Do you think that pollution is London. How could technology be used to social media is a force for good in politics? improve air quality in London?

I think social media is a dangerous force. I’m trying to use this Clearly, vehicles are a major component in this, in particular machine to make moderate arguments and to prove that it can older diesel vehicles. The ULEZ is a very smart move, but it’s not be used to go beyond the three-word slogan. But it’s not easy. enough. There is a lot of pollution coming out of construction Social media was not set up as a political tool; it was set up as machinery and domestic boilers which isn’t being properly a lifestyle tool. And that means that politics is drawn in a very addressed and constitutes as much of a quarter of air pollution strange direction. Twitter, yes you can try – but only in a very few in London. We’re not planting enough trees and green walls to characters – to make a policy argument. By the time you’re onto absorb pollution. The Mayor has “not tackled the very difficult Instagram, you’re really trying to compete for Instagram followers. issue of air pollution on the Underground”. If you spend a lot The people who dominate that medium do so through imagery of time on the tube, it’s the equivalent of smoking two or three and stories which are not well-suited to talking about how to fix cigarettes. It’s not good for you. That’s very important, because the signalling on the Piccadilly line or restructure neighbourhood we want people on the tube – it’s part of the way you get people policing in London. It makes politics ever more broad-brush, out of polluting vehicles. But to be a really great city, we need to generic, emotive. It’s the final development of the removal of the make sure we make that experience as clean as it can be. word ‘how’ from politics; everything is about the ‘what’. You’ve said that you would resign as Mayor if you failed In 2009, you famously set off on a 260-mile walk around to lower knife crime. What would be your distinctive your Penrith constituency, and last year you began walking approach to tackling violent crime in London? through all of London’s boroughs and said you would continue to do so if you became Mayor. What is it that It would be an approach which began from my experience as you’ve gained from all these walks? Prisons Minister, which taught me that traditional approaches from Left and Right don’t work. The Left will say crime is caused by Democracy is about finding ways of representing people and poverty, while the Right will say the solution is to lock everybody speaking for them. But the business of government often puts up. Those ways of looking at the world create a sense of pressure on politicians to sit behind desks, and it’s extraordinary helplessness – they’re not good guides for how you work with a how quickly the human mind loses touch with the ground reality police force or a society to reduce crime. THE CENTRE WRITE INTERVIEW 21

>> It’s most straightforward with the idea that it’s all a result of point of view doing in London some of what I did on violence in poverty. Although there’s a lot of truth in that, the danger is that prisons– which is about a sense of urgency, grip, and detail. it makes you feel like there’s nothing you could do in 20 years because you’d have to address all the root causes of poverty. In the modern world, this means not just collecting data but But the truth is there are many things you could do to reduce analysing that data, which allows you to identify where the violence in one or two years. On the Right, they imagine that you hotspots are and put your resources into that hotspot. In London, can jail your way out of the problem. But you can’t practically do we collect a lot of data but we don’t have the resources to that, and generally what happens is that people who are in prison analyse it properly and link these bits of data together. come out again and if you haven’t dealt with what led them to offend in the first place, they reoffend and that endangers the Both you and Boris are seen as clever, outspoken, public even more. eccentric Etonians. How are you different to Boris?

I felt when I worked with him in the Foreign Office the difference between us, and at times this made quite a good combination. “ A vision for the city He was good at sunny optimism, I’m much better at sweating the as Mayor needs to be details. But I’m suspicious of rhetoric. I’m all about trying to get to reality. Perhaps the clearest illustration of difference between us rooted in real streets, was in terms of diplomatic telegrams. I told all the ambassadors real places. That’s why that I didn’t want to receive any more telegrams from Africa which were saying “another win for Global Britain”. He called me in and I resist the idea of a said “stop telling them to do that”. I was saying be as realistic as ‘Singapore-on-Thames’. you can – where our weaknesses are, tell me what the Chinese are doing, what the Americans are doing. He said, “no Rory, this London is puddles on is like captaining a rugby team. You have to just tell people they’re pavements, a tree that’s great”. My answer to that is that this isn’t like a rugby match. This is a great institution of government that’s lasted for hundreds been vandalised, a woman of years. It’s a personality difference. I think you win battles by who’s a cleaner walking studying the terrain and the details; he thinks you win battles by to work, big shiny cars grand optimistic speeches. But he certainly won the battle for charging past, shops leadership against me on that. Boris has managed to get the Withdrawal Agreement opening and closing. If you through Parliament and win a substantial majority in the don’t get that, you’re not general election. Has your opinion on Boris changed in the working with your city.” last few months? What he did was in his own terms remarkable. That was an A good approach to knife crime has to get the right balance unexpected victory, he ran a campaign which in substance was between the long and the short term. In the short term, a good very similar to what Theresa May was trying to do and got a approach begins with neighbourhood community policing. It completely different result. A huge amount of that must be down allows you to have information about individuals in a particular to the appeal of his personality. I think the challenge now for a community, and identify who is at most risk. It provides the Conservative or a Labour candidate in London is that these parties foundation for linking up to other services, to youth workers, have produced manifestos that have turned against London. If you health workers, schools. And what isn’t happening in London read the Conservative manifesto, it mentions closed train stations is that we haven’t developed the structures to enable a proper in the north of England, but there’s no mention of Crossrail 2. The policing public health approach to work. What we have is a lot of other candidates will have to go into this election tied to manifestos, strategy papers, but what you haven’t got is a focus on getting leaders and policies which are all about prioritising northern England. the basic building blocks right. In the end there is no theoretical The reason I’m proud to be running as an Independent is that I can answer. It is all about energy, grit and delivery, and from my speak for London; I don’t need to buy into all of that stuff. DIGITAL DEMOCRACY 22

Catherine Anderson Detoxifying public life is CEO of the Jo Cox Foundation

Catherine Anderson reflects on the rise of online abuse and its impacts on our politics

n this period of exponential digital marred by increasing levels of abuse December 2019 election. Fear of abuse is evolution we are living through, we are and intimidation against people in public changing the way we, especially women, Iboth the architects and beneficiaries of life in the UK. It has become clear that campaign. Female activists now openly progress. Technology has undeniably, if not online harms affect not just individuals, speak of operating in an environment where universally, benefitted the world: overall we but our national security, our shared rights they legitimately fear for their physical safety. are better educated, healthier, live longer, and responsibilities, opportunities to Just as we can no longer consider the have unprecedented access to knowledge, foster integration, and access to political cumulative impact of individual cases of travel further, and feel more connected. participation. Yet it is the cumulative impact abuse and intimidation in isolation, so too of these factors on our democracy that is must we stop suggesting that the online “ If the public space the most disturbing of all. space is a self-contained landscape. The becomes so toxic that Much recent research by various online space is the public space. It is it not only deters whole academic bodies and organisations shows the space in which we work, learn, play, future pipelines of public that the abuse of public figures, particularly interact and, increasingly, govern. If the servants, but turns voters politicians, is increasing. The majority of public space becomes so toxic that it not off politics even more, we this abuse occurs online. The University of only deters whole future pipelines of public are looking at a political Sheffield, for example, analysed more than servants, but turns voters off politics even culture that lacks vibrancy, one million tweets between elections in more, we are looking at a political culture diversity and innovation.” 2015 and 2017 and found that the number that lacks vibrancy, diversity and innovation. of abusive tweets about politicians more We will all suffer as a result. Yet with progress comes pain, for we than doubled. The Committee on Standards Correlation does not imply causation, are also victims of technology. While we in Public Life’s Intimidation in Public Life but the links between online and offline reap the rewards, we suffer increasingly review remains one of the most compelling harms cannot be denied. The sheer volume in a complex ecosystem of online harms, documents, compiling the results of eleven of abuse online, and the increasingly mass data abuses, and the dissemination quantitative submissions and the anecdotal normalised language and tone, has of misinformation. Legislation has failed to evidence of dozens of MPs. Maria Caulfield legitimised violent behaviour in real keep up with these impacts – impacts that, MP is quoted in the review: “I now have life, with potentially calamitous effects. at their most negative, have the potential video entry to my constituency office. I have We know this only too well through the to damage individuals, organisations, panic alarms. I only post on social media tragedy of the murder of Jo Cox MP and and entire societies and social structures after I have attended events. I no longer the recent prevention of the plot to kill beyond current recognition. hold open surgeries.” Rosie Cooper MP. Stoking grievances and Sir Tim Berners-Lee, in his 2019 Abuse is no longer confined to electoral prejudice through inflammatory language Dimbleby Lecture, spoke of what we all periods. MPs have warned for years that perpetuates a wider atmosphere of fear know to be the “ghastly” nature of content the levels of abuse they were receiving and intimidation. available online, and confirmed what many were out of control, with female MPs The long-term impacts on our politics of us now acknowledge: that artificial disproportionately targeted. Perhaps most will continue to play out. But we can, and intelligence is no match for our peculiarly illustrative of the trend was the number of must, intervene now. Across Whitehall, human ability to harm each other in the MPs – particularly female MPs – who cited within the machinery of Westminster, most toxic ways. abuse and intimidation as a direct factor and among the institutions and layers of The end of the last decade was in their decision not to stand again in the national and local government, there is a DIGITAL DEMOCRACY 23

>> contagious desire to tackle this issue. effort that we can stem the tide of abuse authorities, businesses and the public In July 2019 Government announced the and intimidation, and strengthen the future themselves.” Cabinet Office-led Defending Democracy of our precious democracy. Government is stepping up; the private programme of work, designed to protect sector, and civil society, must too. One and secure democratic processes; “ The sheer volume of vital step will be behaviour change, and strengthen election integrity; encourage abuse online, and the the empowering of active bystanders. respect for free, fair and safe democratic increasingly normalised Society must be enabled to call out participation; and promote fact-based language and tone, abusive behaviour wherever and whenever and open discourse, including online. has legitimised violent we find it – and to understand the Government also committed in 2019 to behaviour in real life” clearly detrimental impacts. Westminster publishing a consultation on electoral must lead by example, but holistic integrity, including looking at measures As Cabinet Office Minister Oliver societal change will be required to shift to improve voters’ confidence in our Dowden said in a written statement in perceptions around behaviours that have democracy. The publication of the Online November 2019, “Left unchecked, abuse become common in a frighteningly short Harms White Paper in April 2019 was a and intimidation will change our democracy timeframe. For that, government, social major milestone in the road to a regulatory and mean that the way Members interact media companies, and each and every framework online. Legislative change with constituents will need to change. one of us has a duty to act. The wholesale around electoral law is improving the safety Increasing levels of threats directed at rejection of an abusive culture in our of candidates. those in public life is a worrying trend that public life must be our end goal. Only However, it will only be through a will require a coordinated and thorough when this happens can our democracy collaborative and concerted multi-sector response from government, the relevant flourish again.

Jim Morrison is founder Our thoughts are not our own of OneSub and owner of Deep Blue Sky

Social media doesn’t only change your vote by controlling what you know. It controls who you know as well, notes Jim Morrison

ost of us live our lives in cultural no mistake, that time has passed. Parties’ they are routinely manipulated by outside and political echo chambers. It’s policies and the media’s role in advocating forces. Mnothing new and it’s completely them are no longer the driving force behind natural. But over the past 15 years our elections. The data-scientists have “ The outcome of the 2024 something has changed. As more research inherited the earth. election is already in the delves into the effects of social media If our social environment has always hands of the geeks who play on political behaviour, it is increasingly played a major role in determining our vote the platforms’ algorithms.” apparent that these changes are a what is really different today? We’ve always much more subtle and pernicious risk lived with a partisan media and it’s natural Today, the average Briton spends over to democracy than even the Cambridge to surround ourselves with people who two hours a day on their smartphone, Analytica episode suggests. believe what we believe. Surely nothing much of that using social media. Within Neil Kinnock’s defeat in 1992 has fundamentally changed. that social media they will have, on average, exemplified the power our media once The real difference is that digital social over 150 social connections. So in order wielded to disseminate policy and networks are unlike anything society has to maximise your engagement, the social persuade the electorate. It may have been seen in the past. They are different in media platforms shape which of your the Sun “wot won it” back then but make architecture, they are incredibly fluid and connections you see and interact with, DIGITAL DEMOCRACY 24

>> creating an artificial perception of what But the tests showed that over 10% of the Facebook came to our screens. In that time is happening around you. vote could be skewed simply by changing legislation has moved forward across Europe Today, around 80% of our electorate the shape of a subject’s network of friends to begin to protect our personal privacy in is spending over two hours per day in an to artificially inflate the number of friends the form of GDPR, PECR and forthcoming artificial environment, constantly reshaped voting for the other side. It suggests that ePrivacy rules. However, nothing has been by an artificial intelligence specifically the more we are surrounded by people of a done to regulate the degree to which our designed to maintain our engagement. This particular persuasion, the more easily we are perception of the world around us is being carries three significant risks: it shapes our able to rationalise changing our own vote. artificially manipulated by social platforms cultural and political perception; it is being In the context of social networks like with their own commercial agendas. competitively manipulated by marketeers, Facebook and Twitter it is important From an engineering standpoint, where digital socialites and others; and it can be to understand that the process of legislation has been introduced it has used, more directly, to influence your vote. manipulating your network is intentionally often failed to curb the dark practices of In 2019 scientists at Houston, MIT, left wide open to outside influence. The technology companies. UPenn and Oxford, led by Alexander J algorithms that define each individual’s Stewart, began looking into the patterns of echo chamber are designed to crave that “ Votes can be manipulated behavioural change that could be achieved individual’s attention, and work towards without the need to by manipulating subjects’ social networks. monopolising it. By producing apolitical, change people’s cultural Alarmingly, their discovery shows that entertaining and shareable content, I or political perception.” votes can be manipulated without the need can train the algorithms to show my own to change people’s cultural or political content, gerrymandering the information In the case of something as simple as perception. They call this technique you see. third-party cookie tracking we have simply ‘information gerrymandering’. What Stewart et al. shows is that when shifted responsibility to the consumer who It turns out that knowing how others the time is right, there doesn’t need to be a typically has neither the skill, understanding around you will vote is a key influence contextual shift in politics in order to swing nor patience to protect themselves. To over your own vote – irrespective of your your vote – you can be swung simply by how access, for instance, Delia’s marmalade personal beliefs. others in your field of view intend to vote. recipe you will be asked to accept tracking Having a sense of how your friends and It has been 15 years since the now from 513 separate companies. colleagues are likely to vote is nothing new. familiar ‘personal timelines’ of Twitter and Refusing consent is always harder DIGITAL DEMOCRACY 25

>> than agreeing to it. We are all asked so economy, by party political messages or by construction of social echo chambers incessantly that in this game of attrition most our personal beliefs. The outcome of the nothing will change. And for as long as people simply give in. Ultimately the consent 2024 election is already in the hands of the the shape of my echo chamber can be is meaningless. In 2024 this country will go geeks who play the platforms’ algorithms to manipulated, what you say and how you back to the polls. But our vote is arguably shape our social circles. say it has no impact on my vote. Until then, no longer determined by the state of the Until we regulate the artificial all of your policies are just fake news.

Damian Collins MP was Rethinking media regulation Chair of the Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee

Damian Collins MP calls for a fundamental overhaul of the way we regulate social media

he most popular media for some Corn Laws. Yet why should we accept that In response to our Digital, Culture, of the most vulnerable people even though media habits are changing, Media and Sport Select Committee T in society, our children, is the our oversight and regulation of the content inquiry on disinformation and fake news, least regulated. For most social media that people consume everyday should stay the Government published an Online accounts, you are required to be 13 to the same? This has led to a world where Harms White Paper last April and has register to use the service, however there a small community radio station with a few released its response to the subsequent are no effective age verification tools thousand listeners requires a license from public consultation. In our Conservative when someone creates an account on the media regulator Ofcom, but a social manifesto, the Prime Minister Boris Facebook, Instagram and Snapchat. They media channel with millions of individual Johnson committed to “make the UK rely entirely on self-certification, which subscribers does not. the safest place in the world to be means it is as easy for a ten year old girl to online”, protecting children and the most pretend she is 18 as it is for a 50 year old “ Freedom of speech is vulnerable in our society from abuse, man to claim he is 15. Whilst there exists not the same as freedom whilst also going after terrorist content. a ‘YouTube kids’ service, according to the of reach. People have We will always need to balance the media regulator Ofcom, for children over the right to express their need for regulation with the imperative the age of five, the main YouTube platform opinions, but I don’t of freedom of speech, which is a pillar of is their favourite video streaming service. believe that means they our democracy. But freedom of speech is Young adults aged between 18 and 34 have the same unchecked not the same as freedom of reach. People watch more YouTube on average each day right to use the tools of have the right to express their opinions, than they do all of the traditional free to air social media to proactively but I don’t believe that means they have broadcast channels combined, and even broadcast those views to the same unchecked right to use the tools for all adults YouTube is the third most millions of people.” of social media to proactively broadcast popular service, only sitting behind BBC 1 those views to millions of people, multiple and ITV 1. That’s why I want us to act now to times a day at the click of a button. Over the years we have developed make the big tech companies more Boris Johnson rightly says that we can codes of practice for broadcasters to responsible, in law, for the content that make the UK the safest place in the world to ensure good standards are met and is served to users on their platform. be on the internet. Sensible principles striking introduced the 9pm watershed to try They should have a legal duty of care the balance between protection of users and and keep younger audiences away from overseen by a regulator that has the freedom of speech, determined and overseen harmful content. For most people today, power to investigate and act against by an independent regulator such as Ofcom, these rules are about as relevant as the those companies when things go wrong. could allow us to do just that. DIGITAL DEMOCRACY LETTER EXCHANGE 26

Alex Krasodomski- Jones is Director of the Centre for the Analysis of Is social media bad for democracy? Social Media at Demos

Phoebe Arslanagić- Alex Krasodomski-Jones and Phoebe Arslanagić-Wakefield debate Wakefield is a Researcher at Bright Blue and Editor of Centre Write

Dear Phoebe, then pit them against one another, begging them to report The medium is the metaphor, not the message. Social media each other to some nameless, semi-automated authority. This is a democratic aberration, an Upside Down clinging to liberal is democratic anathema: layers and layers of unknowable democratic societies. At its most dangerous, Big Tech presents authoritarianism painted in A/B-tested blue. It should be one its facsimiles as new, viable alternatives: the new ‘living room’, of the greatest policy disappointments of our time that our the new ‘public square’, a new ‘media’. But its homunculi are politicians fight over who should control the levers of this hollow and rotten, and the precedents they set for public life are authoritarianism, rather than questioning its principles entirely. authoritarian parodies built to grow fat on advertising dollars. The Best, Alex ruthless impulses of Silicon Valley and Chinese ambition that are the driving forces behind the development of the web as we know Dear Alex, it are not the friends of liberal democracy. Your article is a compelling attack on the business model of social Take the way these spaces are policed. media companies, from the algorithms they use to the way they Every word, photo and video you upload is picked over by police their spaces. However, less clear is how the structures and dozens of inscrutable algorithms that determine who should processes you identify negatively impact democracy. see you, or if anyone should see you at all. Are you, dear citizen, You claim that social media spaces are created to function as algorithmically optimised? ‘informer societies’, forcing users to police one another. Whether Worse still are the legions of stool pigeons: that’s you and me. or not that is the case, you do not demonstrate that wider society Big Tech hopes that if they are unable or unwilling to shape our has thus been turned into a dystopian ‘informer-state’ as a result. public forums, we might step up and police these spaces for them. It is far from clear based on the evidence you provide that social But as users we have no power to shape these spaces and no media is the enemy of democracy, or a threat to it at all. incentive to consider it. All we have is the Holy Trinity: report, mute Indeed, the very opposite has been shown to be the case. In and block – which is to say, cover our eyes or report what we see Hong Kong, social media is a vital tool of pro-democracy activists, to ‘the authorities’, the so-called ‘temps, vendors and contractors’ who pit themselves against an authoritarian state. In June 2019, – halogen-lit warehouse workers in Bangalore or the Philippines when the most recent bout of pro-democracy protests broke out, who hold the final say over your participation in this or that online the authorities had already imprisoned the city’s most well-known community without any kind of scrutiny. democracy activist. But social media enabled a decentralised, If historical precedent is anything to go by, informer societies formless protest movement that did not need ringleaders who undermine any kind of democratic solidarity. I feel sure that would inevitably be targeted by the state. Eight months later, solidarity is not a common feature of social media platforms. the protestors continue to challenge the authorities, and that Were this ruthless authoritarianism effective, I might feel some challenge is organised and sustained through social media. sympathy. Who needs democracy when you can have a white- Not only has social media proved a powerful weapon in washed digital Singapore, where the streets are clean and nobody mobilising democracy’s allies the world over, but its power as chews gum? Liberal democracies are a mess of interwoven an instrument of accountability is also apparent. #MeToo first accountabilities, communities, laws, rights and expectations – it’s went viral on Twitter in 2017. Over 20 million tweets later, the both their greatest strength and their most crippling weakness. But movement has held powerful people, including politicians, to we don’t want this online. We want good, sterile ruthlessness. account. #MeToo would never have had the global effect it has, It would be laughable if it wasn’t so sad: monopolise the and continues to have, without social media. Social media gives digital commons, monetise invective and attention-grabbing citizens the power to hold politicians publicly to account — it gives bullshit, disempower your users, cloak them in factless smog, all citizens a voice in the ‘town square’. DIGITAL DEMOCRACY LETTER EXCHANGE 27

>> It is not right to describe social media users as and accountability are illusory. These online ‘public spaces’ are not disempowered. Far from it, consumers are empowered by social the friends of democracy. media to participate in democratic society in ways that were not Best, Alex possible before. Best, Phoebe Dear Alex, By blaming social media for the world’s ills, you give it too Dear Phoebe, much credit. You point to facial recognition, micro-profiling, and I am surprised you cannot see the connection between the form other practices of repressive regimes. But repressive practices and function of communications and the politics that results. do not exist because of social media. The knock on the door Pro-democracy movements empowered by social media are feared by activists the world over is the same that sounded for bugs, not features; they tend to be short-lived and easily crushed. die Weiße Rose in 1943, decades before social media. I do The honeymoon period, where social media were seen as the not argue, though you say I do, that pro-democracy movements vanguard of liberal democratic change in the Middle East and are a function of social media. Rather, they are a tool of such elsewhere, is over. The Arab Spring failed. movements. The repressive and genocidal Government of These movements, packed with brave, digitally-savvy Myanmar would be so with or without social media. Otherwise, activists often risking their lives in the pursuit of democracy do where does your argument end? One may as well posit that the – occasionally – catch a regime by surprise. These movements telephone is a tool of repressive regimes. tend to get crushed. Their shelf life is extended in spite of digital Social media can be a weapon in the arsenal of repressive machinery, not because of it. The sight of Hong Kong protestors regimes. But it is also a weapon of freedom fighters. It is largely tearing down facial recognition cameras and Wi-Fi tracking masts because of social media that Alexei Navalny has emerged as a should be proof enough. serious challenger to Putin in Russia. Even in China, hashtags We must not be duped into repackaging the impossible efforts critical of the Communist Party’s handling of the Coronavirus of pro-democracy activists as functions of social media platforms. outbreak have swiftly gained traction and reached many before It does them a massive disservice: it is the willingness of young censors could stymie them. Social media has allowed voices people to fight and choke and die in the pursuit of democracy that counter to the Government narrative to break through. It may keeps these movements alive. not have made these states democratic. But it has brought them Sometimes, as I say, a government might be caught unawares. closer to democracy. But normal service will soon be resumed. Normality is thousands I agree that the social media environment remains hostile to of government-paid operatives in Saudi Arabia, Russia and China many. Accountability for our most popular fora has often been tasked with spreading pro-government messaging on platforms. It elusive. But things are changing. In 2018, Mark Zuckerberg testified is Rodrigo Duterte’s ‘patriotic trolling’ of opposition and journalists. before the US Congress — on the right to privacy, Cambridge It is Brad Parscale’s Trump 2020 campaign, a multi-million dollar Analytica and data sharing — in a gruelling five hour hearing. Forced exercise in weaponising the world’s biggest social network. It is Jair to justify himself before elected lawmakers, Zuckerberg’s testimony Bolsonaro’s WhatsApp ‘Bolsominions’, the human infrastructure signalled a new era of social media. An era of accountability. through which disinformation thrives in Brazil. It is micro-profiling. Facebook has lost 15 million users in the US alone in the past It is facial recognition databases. It’s the millions of Uyghurs in two years. Users are asking difficult questions of the companies internment in China, Rohingyas dead in Myanmar, Kashmiris denied whose platforms they populate and are voting with their feet. We internet access, or activists around the world for whom a false step are learning that there is a hidden price to our use of sites like online leads to a knock on the door in the night. Twitter, Facebook and Instagram. With this knowledge, we gain a Hashtags like #MeToo or #NotInMyName signal cultural new appetite for accountability and regulation. shifts that are hard-won and long overdue. We should celebrate This is not to say we should rest on our laurels. Social and learn from them. But I’m not sure we have any laurels to media must be tamed through the democratic process. That rest on. Ask any female, minority politician or journalist what means careful consultation, followed by careful regulation. That their experience of social media is like and I imagine you’ll get means accountability and transparency. Yes, social media has similar answers. Social media in its current form remains a hostile its dangers, but ultimately it is a positive tool for democracy and environment to many, a pay-to-play environment that favours those has great potential. Its problems are being addressed. Social with the resources to exploit it. When we parrot lines about ‘digital media will be dragged kicking and screaming into the era of town squares’ we are being played by those looking to remodel accountability, but dragged it will be. our communications environment for power and profit. Participation Best, Phoebe DIGITAL WORLD 28

Will Somerville is UK Digital borders? Senior Fellow at the Migration Policy Institute and a Visiting Professor at Will Somerville asks whether technological solutions can improve the University of Sheffield the UK’s migration system

he UK’s exit from the European and settling. A small minority of that carving out of high risk groups may lead Union has fired the starting gun on estimated 600,000 will be vulnerable to government headaches, including T new immigration system reform. people who arrive spontaneously, seeking increased irregularity, and simpler But very little consideration has been humanitarian protection. approaches remain available. given to what will be major reforms, and The challenge is growing, and Brexit The 2018 White Paper devotes a virtually none to the large-scale plans is about to make the Home Office’s job whole chapter to the application of digital for technological change that underpin even harder. Most modelling suggests technology to build on such successes. Government plans which range from the number of border entries is likely to Visa applications will move online and online-only systems with automated rise. Crucially, European nationals will no be “user and business friendly” while decisions to predictive analysis to assess longer be exempted from controls (unless technology will also be used to “prevent security risks. migration becomes part of a Brexit trade those who would seek to abuse the The foundation stone of the deal). Given that around half of the system”. modern immigration system is the inflow to the UK comes from Europe, What does this mean in practice? 1971 Immigration Act. Many pieces of visa applications will more than double. The system for applying for a visa will legislation have been passed since, but Meanwhile, European nationals here in move online completely. Underlying this the Act established – uniquely among the UK must be registered to retain their will be a digital architecture that checks other developed countries – substantial current rights through the ‘Settled Status’ against around 20 other systems to avoid powers for ministers and Home Office scheme -another huge challenge as it abuse and ensure security. Visas will be officials to decide who can enter and involves an estimated 3.6 million people. digital. The decision to award a visa will settle in the UK. Most changes to In short, Brexit will bring about the largest be fully or partly automated, especially entry and exit can be made through the structural changes in the migration for tourism or short-term business trips, ‘Immigration Rules’ under secondary system in decades. seeking simply to establish identity and legislation and the last time Parliament The Government’s focus on using check for security risks. Going forward, prevented secondary legislation technology to meet these challenges is Europeans seeking longer-term residence becoming law was in 1979. The Home essential. Rising citizen and business for work will require a work permit with Office thus combines delivering on a expectations of a user-friendly service, the biometric details (in place since 2008 for huge volume of casework with making reduction of cost associated with each non-Europeans) as well as meeting the and enforcing the rules on which application, and the ability to use data criteria for entry (such as having a certain decisions are based. to reduce security risks are critical. For minimum salary). The Home Office faces a major example, the new Settled Status scheme Technology will also be applied to challenge in the years ahead. We can for European citizens is premised on detecting abuse. This applies in three expect around 330 million people to data-sharing between the Home Office, areas: profiling nationalities to increase or enter the UK in 2020, from over 270 HMRC and the Department for Work decrease restrictions for those who seek recognised crossing points (mostly as and Pensions, which allows an automatic to come to the UK by predicting whether tourists or in transit). The Home Office determination of residency history without there is a security or other risk such as will make a decision related to a visa the need for submitting documentation. overstaying a visa; at the physical border on around 17 million applications. We Most international comparisons show crossing point; and management of those can also expect around 600,000 people the UK immigration system works well already in the UK, such as creating user- to enter with the intention of remaining for business applicants. However, the friendly systems for both individuals and DIGITAL WORLD 29

>> employers/services providers to These include the failure in 1996 of certain groups as high risk in the check whether someone can legally work digital case management recording, the customer journey may lead not only or access a service. 1999 Passport Office failure, the failure to additional scrutiny but also to bias, Some context is useful as 2020 is not of casework integration in 1999-2000, privacy concerns and even punitive year zero for applying digital solutions and frequent failures in the e-borders sanctions. This is a live risk. The Settled to immigration. Machine-readable programme (2003-2015, especially Status scheme may contain similar seeds passports were developed in the 1980s; 2007-2010). The National Audit Office for a future Windrush scandal. Critics legal powers to share data between continue to worry about reliance on a point out how the scheme impacts departments were established in the complex web of legacy IT systems, and certain groups. There is no chance for mid 2000s under Labour; e-borders and most independent audits have pointed to full coverage within the Government’s its successor programmes have been capacity failures in the Home Office. deadline and automation may lead to in place since 2003 and have aimed to But it is not just capacity. Policy goals many European nationals prevented from ensure information on who was coming to change, with the original technology accessing services and questioning their the UK and for what purpose was made in solution no longer being fit for purpose. If residence in years to come. Only strategic advance rather than on arrival. we consider Brexit, 26 of the 57 border litigation (not Home Office openness) However, the level of automation in systems relied on by HMRC are due has revealed some of the criteria behind decision-making and the targeting via to be amended. Similarly, it remains algorithmic decision-making. data of abuse represents a step change unclear whether the UK will remain part in the application of technology in of the systems in the EU on which the “ The Home Office has recent years. The vision of the e-borders UK currently participates—for example an appalling record of programme set out in 2003 is close to EURODAC (related to claims for refugee digital implementation realisation after an investment of more status). Another example is that no one failures.” than £1 billion. The Settled Status in Government has considered how the scheme, a heavily automated app-based Settled Status scheme should link to We know some of the answers system, shows that new systems can be citizenship and naturalisation. Aspirations to these questions. Improving implemented at speed and scale; officials may also exceed solutions. E-borders implementation comes from seeking see it as a prototype for the future remains the best example—the aim was to value-for-money assessments and system. Other countries are developing ensure identity information in advance in ensuring capacity continues to be at a similar rate and innovating in order to track participants’ travel patterns taken in-house. Addressing the risks different areas, from chatbots in Finland, to reduce irregularity. The Home Office for vulnerable individuals must start to blockchain in Germany for sensitive predicted 95% coverage of entries with publishing a transparent account refugee data, to Canada’s digital system. by 2010, and by 2015 had reached of how the data is used and for what The pace of policy change is fast, and just 86%. purpose. However, the thread that likely irreversible. The second concern lies in how connects the two main areas of concern There are two areas of concern. First, technological solutions are applied lies in the original sin of the 1971 Act: can digital solutions be successfully to vulnerable groups. The Windrush a lack of accountability and scrutiny implemented? In the past, a lack of scandal is not erroneous but systemic for the Home Office. If fundamental capacity, shifts in policy goals and in how the Home Office operates. immigration questions will increasingly aspirations exceeding technological The (mis)application of technology be decided by bureaucratic decisions solutions have all caused problems. was the accelerant—the Home Office and the algorithms developed on such Second, and by far the biggest denied British citizens services and frameworks, there will need to be concern for civil society, is whether even deported some citizens after data strong accountability mechanisms and automation and digital solutions will lead sharing protocols threw up questions of understanding of how digital systems to discrimination, bias and/or punitive residency—but of course the Home Office work. The concerns of civil society lie treatment of vulnerable individuals was responsible for not keeping records as much in the development of policy through the creation of ‘high risk’ that would have resolved the problem. decisions than in the technology itself. categories. The Home Office is making decisions Scrutiny—via Parliament and proper The Home Office has an appalling that preference certain individuals over assessment of the public interest—would record of digital implementation failures. others, including Europeans. Placing provide much of the answer. DIGITAL WORLD 30

David Henig is Director Defying the gravity effect? of the UK Trade Policy Project at the European Centre for International Technology is no panacea for UK trade policy, argues David Henig Political Economy

ebates on technology and trade competitive”. The largest single element of may for example reduce the trade in the in the UK over the last three years this is financial services, but we’re good at a provision of call centres (some of whose D have been dominated at micro diverse range of business and professional functions are plausibly replaced by virtual level by whether technology can render a services, information technology, education, agents) but increase outsourcing in other border invisible, and at macro level as to branding, retail and much besides. That areas, such as legal services research. whether the gravity effects of trade, that leaves 50% of goods exports, of which This could even move into more complex countries trade more with neighbours, are only a small percentage is the result of the fields such as advanced manufacturing or in the process of weakening. Brexit may commonly understood process of producing surgery, where robots in one country are soon be banned as a word in government, a good and selling it overseas (Scotch controlled by skilled staff in another. but these Brexit related issues will whisky being the classic example). More continue to be important in the future, not often, the UK is part of a sophisticated chain “ Even if the cost of long least in thinking about the barriers we may of imports and exports making up a final distance trade is falling, it face in UK-EU trade, and whether any product, with cars and aviation being classic is not falling by enough to negative trading impact from these can be examples of such sectors, and where there change the fundamentals.” offset by global trade. may be some embedded services, such as after-sales service contracts and in-car There is little suggestion from academic “ Much trade remains local systems. In these sectors much of the literature that the cumulative effect of all of for the simple reasons of international trade occurs within the same these changes will dramatically alter the culture and familiarity, the company, think perhaps Airbus or Ford. gravity effects of trade. Much trade remains greater knowledge of a The technology developments that affect local for the simple reasons of culture and market close by because this trade are thus as diverse as the trade familiarity, the greater knowledge of a market of regular contact, itself. Much of the talk in recent years has close by because of regular contact, shared shared tastes, common been around blockchain, a form of shared tastes, common regulations, or lower costs regulations, or lower costs record trusted by all parties to a transaction, of sale and maintenance related to travel of sale and maintenance which should be able to assist with customs costs. Even if the cost of long distance related to travel costs.” checks and trade finance among other trade is falling, it is not falling by enough to things. That would suggest a reduction in change the fundamentals. To realistically consider the impact of the cost of global trade and reduction in This doesn’t mean that the current technology on the UK’s trade performance the gravity effect, but other trends towards pattern of UK trade is the one that will after EU departure we need to understand greater automation and 3D printing are be maintained; that will depend on the our current trading position, and the main conversely encouraging manufacturers choices we have yet to make. Already the trends in technology we are considering. to locate closer to major markets, and UK is an outlier in our services trade, with In both cases we find a picture more away from low cost locations. Trade in the larger than expected trade with a number complex than that held by common wisdom, automotive sector, huge in global trade of countries including the US and in the suggesting there are unlikely to be easy terms, stands to be radically affected by the Middle East. For the US the huge levels answers for the UK. change to electric vehicles, with less parts, of investment between the two countries It is well known that nearly 50% of the and probably less complex supply chains. may be a particular factor, while for the UK’s exports are in services, where the Services trade is similarly going to be Middle East the UK’s successful defence UK has been described as “frighteningly affected by greater automation, which manufacturing sector is clearly a factor. DIGITAL WORLD 31

>> The likely effect of greater barriers to defence and other high margin engineering. would probably want to create a close trade with the EU compared to the current This suggests though that we may be relationship with our neighbouring markets, position is a reduction in our place in better not going down the traditional trade joining up with local innovation and skills various manufacturing supply chains such agreement route, but instead creating efforts. Focusing on services and niche as in automotive, which is not offset by any new bilateral agreements in areas such manufacturing would potentially exacerbate other trade agreements. Technology could as FinTech, data, regulations, and the divisions between those areas with reduce the cost of border barriers, but in a movement of people. This though would university and research clusters, and other low margin sector these costs could still be not be easy given sensitivities among likely towns, unless other measures were taken. a significant deterrent to UK manufacturing. trading partners. Trade policy, it should be noted, always This would increase pressure on the Our trade choices will of course have involves government picking winners and sectors where trade agreements make less a strong relationship with those made for losers. Technological developments can’t of a difference, which includes much of the the domestic economy. A government affect that, but awareness of them will aforementioned services sector, along with seeking to increase manufacturing exports allow for informed decisions.

Dr Jane Thomason is Blockchain to the rescue? CEO of Fintech Worldwide

Dr Jane Thomason outlines the potential for blockchain to make international aid both more transparent and more efficient

he international aid industry had aid programs are about moving money; supply chain and ultimate delivery. A smart an annus horribilis in 2019, with to contractors; NGOs; UN agencies; contract could unlock a delivery payment T scandals and plummeting public suppliers; and beneficiaries. The ultimate to a healthcare provider when the provider confidence. Human Rights Watch has goals are about impact for sure, but notes in an existing national health data accused donors of poor transparency money needs to move to achieve that. base or electronic medical record that it around the approximately $177.6 billion Can blockchains, with their features of has delivered the service, and the patient given by donors in developing countries. transparency, auditability, immutability confirms receipt of the service. Donors distribute their funds through and security, help? Banks think so – Blockchain-enabled smart contracts systems that are costly and cumbersome, 200 banks and over 40 central banks reduce reliance on third parties, reducing utilising multiple intermediaries. Private are testing blockchain technology for costs associated with professional contractors, the UN and NGOs can reap financial efficiency, data management and services and requirement for trust. The between ten and 30% in overheads and information-sharing. process of validating the ledger ensures margins. The UN suggests that there is network participants can trust the integrity an additional 30% loss due to fraud and “ Blockchain can mean of the transactions. Smart contracts corruption. more money more quickly can automatically check delinquency DFID has also come under fire to vulnerable populations rates and compile monthly surveillance with spending through private sector that desperately need it.” reporting, reducing the associated costs of contractors doubling over the past five staffing. Based on evidence from banking, years, to £1.4 billion in 2016. Their With blockchain, donors can use blockchain technology could cut costs by suppliers have been criticised for smart contracts to ensure that donor 70% on central financial reporting; 50% profiteering, unscrupulous practices and funds reach intended recipients such as on business and central operations; corruption. NGOs are not immune to healthcare providers without middlemen 50% on compliance; and more than 30% scandal with the Oxfam scandal in Haiti. and leakage along the way. They can track across middle and back office costs. When it comes down to it, international aid delivery by showing the location in the Smart contracts can pledge future cash DIGITAL WORLD 32

>> payments in exchange for reduced Blocks programme was one of the first can authenticate transactions without a interest, or, in the case that debt repayments of its kind to facilitate cash transfers to full-blown audit or paying an intermediary cannot be managed, make smaller, more refugees on the Blockchain. to verify transactions. frequent repayments against the balance. Blockchain can also help ensure A Forbes article reports that “total For example, nations could borrow money transparency in supply chains. For corporate and government spending for Infrastructure Development Bonds and example, supply chains can be made on blockchain should hit $2.9 billion instead of borrowing the gross amount, the more secure by using a blockchain- in 2019, an increase of 89% over the net amount could be borrowed with digitally recorded tag to each product showing previous year, and reach $12.4 billion registered assets and smart contracts used its provenance. These tamper-proof tags by 2022.” Key enterprise applications to match expected tax receipts from citizens ensures the traceability of flows and already include payments and remittances, to construction expenses. goods by recording all transactions. Safer, supply chain, health care, agriculture, more efficient supply chains are important, identity, land registry – all domains of “ Blockchain technology creating continuous supplies of vital international aid programs. If donors get provides a digital solution products such as medicine. in on the ground floor, they can piggyback that enables participants Blockchain technology also provides on these innovations with little upfront to validate transactions a digital solution that enables participants investment and shape technology to without traditional to validate transactions without traditional add value to their programs. If savings in intermediaries.” intermediaries. Participants rely instead verification and networking costs came to on sophisticated algorithms to create just 10%, that would mean an additional Save The Children have been unbreakable codes and consensus rules for $15 billion that donors can spend on investigating a humanitarian passport, a distributed ledger. Costs for this process services—and the figure likely will be far the Red Cross piloted Blockchain in are low. By some estimates, organizations larger. Combined with the increased speed early 2018 to test the traceability and could see a cost reduction that exceeds of disbursements, blockchain can mean transparency of Islamic Social Finance, 30% of overhead administrative tasks. more money more quickly to vulnerable and the World Food Programme’s Building Donors can reduce verification costs if they populations that desperately need it.

Global green giant? A policy story Patrick Hall and William Nicolle

The world is beginning to wake up to the fact that biodiversity is declining. Urgent global attention and action is required now. Climate change, overfishing, changes in land and sea use, and invasive alien species are all contributors to this. In the UK, we are witnessing the decline of species and their habitats.

The UK is a global leader on climate change, but now there is a need and opportunity to do the same for biodiversity – to become a global green giant on conservation. After many months of exploration, of consultation, and of thinking, this policy story provides a comprehensive set of recommendations to be used by the Government to bolster its agenda in making the UK a conservation nation. BRIGHT BLUE POLITICS 33

David Simmonds CBE Why I’m a Bright Blue MP MP is the MP for Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner

The Conservative Party needs fresh thinking to reach out to truly win voters’ trust, writes David Simmonds CBE MP

ike most people in politics, experience has caused me to change my views L on many issues over the years. Having never departed from the principle that the Conservative Party must be a party of sound finance, or it is nothing, the question of what this means in practice as we set about preparing politically and administratively for at least a decade of government is on my mind and that of many colleagues. There are lessons to be learnt from a government is that the voters need to see spending as a proportion of GDP, where number of places across the country where that the politicians are on their side. This the UK currently sits between the US local government Conservatives have turned might sound obvious, but my MP postbag is and EU. Conservatives are often caught places that demographically speaking are already full or correspondence from voters between advocating more spending on not favourable, into solid Conservative- who feel that the system of government puts specific areas, but less in overall, which voting areas. Applying these lessons at a ‘other people’ first. as a governing party becomes impossible national level gives us some useful insights to square as the Treasury presents its into how we might show the British people “ The input of ideas from spending plans. that the Conservative Party needs to think tanks like Bright The key lesson from this conundrum is become the default option for government. Blue is invaluable in that voters need to see that politicians are The input of ideas from think tanks like shaping policies that have focussed on value for money. Again this Bright Blue is invaluable in shaping policies widespread voter appeal.” may sound obvious, but local government that have widespread voter appeal. shows that voters are less concerned with Demonstrating from first principles that tax rates per se, than about the value they “ Voters need to see that politicians are thinking first and foremost get. Labour’s huge injection of funds into politicians are focussed about the interests of the people is critical. the NHS when in government is a good on value for money... local There is no question that the Brexit debate example – 100% more funding yielding 2% government shows that was often fuelled by a sense that politicians more productivity, so most voters saw no voters are less concerned engaging with the EU put others’ interests benefit. As a Conservative, I would argue with tax rates per se, than ahead of the British peoples’. Regardless of that this was because Labour’s priority about the value they get.” the rights and wrongs of the Brexit situation, was pay rises for the unionised part of the a powerful message has been sent to our NHS workforce, rather than investment in How we define ourselves in parliament party that we must demonstrate that focus technology and professional services that – ‘One Nation’, ‘Liberal Conservative’, ‘Red on making a positive difference that voters would have increased the quality of the Tory’ and all the rest – means little to most can see and feel around them. service for patients. In government we must voters and sends a clear message that A key part of how we do this comes not fall into this trap when making spending we are more interested in our own tribe from how we make spending decisions. decisions, instead asking the question, how, than in voters. Probably the single most Politicians have tended to spend time and by when, will voters see the benefit of important lesson from success in local debating comparative rates of public sector this expenditure? BRIGHT BLUE POLITICS 34

Phoebe Arslanagić- Research update Wakefield is a Researcher at Bright Blue and Editor of Centre Write Phoebe Arslanagić-Wakefield updates us on Bright Blue’s research programme

he UK has finally left the EU and agriculture, marine, waste, illegal wildlife In late February, we released High and is formally in a transition period trade and green global Britain. This can dry: preventing tomorrow’s ‘flood ghettos’, T until the end of 2020, leaving the be used by the current Government to a new piece of analysis by our associate UK less than a year to negotiate its new bolster its agenda in making the UK a fellow Helen Jackson which has found that relationship with the EU. Brexit has delayed conservation nation. 70,000 English homes in areas prone to key policies and legislation, but with Bright Blue kicked off 2020 by flooding are at risk of having no insurance. resolution in sight, attention must turn back publishing its polling over 2000 UK adults to domestic policy-making. Throughout immediately after the general election. “ The UK is a global leader the final stages of Britain’s exit from the The polling, conducted in partnership on climate change. But EU, Bright Blue has continued to produce with Opinium, provides a snapshot of now there is both need and influential research. the immediate public expectations of, opportunity for Britain to The world is beginning to wake up priorities for, and perceptions of the new step forward and become to the fact that biodiversity is declining. Conservative Government. It shows a global green giant on Urgent global attention and action is that the public are still sceptical that conservation.” required, now. Climate change, overfishing, Conservative Government will deliver for changes in land and sea use, and invasive those on modest incomes. The public Bright Blue’s events programme is alien species all contribute to this dire are similarly sceptical of high profile also off to a very strong start this year. In situation, as in the UK, we witness the Conservative commitments to end rough January we hosted brilliant psephologist decline of species and their habitats. sleeping and complete fibre broadband Professor Sir John Curtice, for what was rollout. one of our most popular drink tank events “ The end of Brexit’s In January, we released the report, ever. We are looking forward to the rest chokehold upon British Framing the future — A new pensions of our sterling events program, with guest politics is within sight, commission. Conducted in partnership with speakers including The Rt Hon Jeremy making the need for centre-left think tank the Fabian Society, Hunt MP Nimco Ali OBE and Professor thinking about other issues, the report sets out a detailed blueprint for David Nutt. from conservation to social an effective pensions commission, making Looking ahead, Bright Blue Scotland security, keener.” the case for an independent pensions will soon publish groundbreaking and commission and how it would operate in original polling and analysis on attitudes to The UK is a global leader on climate practice. The report interviews experts social security and social security reform in change. But now there is both need and including Guy Opperman MP, Lord Adair Scotland, which will inform future policies opportunity for Britain to step forward Turner and Jill Rutter. In the report, based north of the border. and become a global green giant on on this expert consultation, Bright Blue The end of Brexit’s chokehold upon conservation. After many months of and the Fabian Society recommend that British politics is within sight, making the exploration, consultation, and thought, ministers establish a one-off review of need for thinking about other issues, from Bright Blue’s energy and environment pensions policy modelled on the Turner conservation to social security, keener. team has released Global green giant? Commission, and subsequently develop Bright Blue will continue to contribute A policy story. This report provides a plans for the commission to become a high-quality research and innovative and comprehensive set of recommendations permanent scrutinising body in the mold of evidence-based policy recommendations to pertaining to land management, the Office for Budget Responsibility. the political world. ARTS & BOOKS 35

ARTS & BOOKS

The AI Economy: Work, Wealth Diane Banks is a Non-executive Director and Welfare in the Robot Age of Bright Blue and CEO of Northbank by Roger Bootle Talent Management

his book offers a refreshing sanity perennial mistakes made by commentators. Bootle concludes that “What this check amidst the plethora of The idea that AI will increase the value revolution will do is to release human beings T doom-mongering around the ‘robot of human capital attracts me to Bootle’s from many of the dross jobs that have taxed revolution’, authored as it is by a respected thinking. Working in the media as I do, it’s their spirit … it will leave them free to be more economist capable of applying a much- clear that human beings are more interested truly human” – the utopia to which the likes of needed dose of pragmatism to the debate. in other people’s actions and opinions than Karl Marx and William Morris aspired. Unlike As Bootle says early on, the industrial anything else. Neither the cult of personality the latter, however, he suggests that “the only revolution was not just about innovation nor the value of personalised service have way to find out what its effects will be is to let in industry: it was also about innovation in ever been higher, and the automation of people and businesses make free choices”, finance, economics and policy which created basic tasks will only increase this value. As with which anyone who deals with the world the right environment to enable the revolution. Bootle puts it, “how you interact with human the way it is as opposed to the way they Equally, the financial crisis was caused by beings will be more important than how you would like it to be would heartily agree. weaknesses in human nature, institutions interact with robots.” AI will create some and public policy. Ergo, the robots will not new jobs and enhance other jobs, such flourish in isolation: other factors need to as in healthcare and education, enabling be considered if we are to make accurate professionals in those areas to spend predictions about this latest revolution. more time interacting with their patients or Bootle’s key contention is that AI will students, and more people to be employed lead to rising productivity and a fall in prices, in those sectors. The cost of services will meaning greater demand not just for the reduce, and increased output will lead to product in question but for other products, a rise in corporation and consumer taxes, which will in turn lead to employment in aiding equality. In short, “the AI economy will other industries. Robots and AI should lead to the full discovery of the human realm.” be regarded as capital investment, not a Tax and regulation, education and labour substitute, which I found helpful in redistribution are the three areas we need to reframing the argument away from robots work on, with education the most important. ‘coming for our jobs’. Despite his stance as As a vocal proponent of a creative education, a strongly pro-market economist, Bootle is Bootle’s exploration of this area was of a fan of Keynes and absolutely sees a place particular interest. He correctly points out for government to ease any transition, but that rote learning belongs in an age where emphasises that “there is no macro reason information was difficult to access; and that why everyone who wants to work cannot since nobody ever required us to learn the ins do so.” He suggests that economists have and outs of our car engine, a narrow focus on frequently missed the sense of purpose STEM subjects may be misguided. Instead, The AI economy: work, wealth & welfare in which human beings gain from work, positing young people need to know how to weigh the robot age, that full-time work may in fact be endemic to evidence, work in teams, empathise and Nicholas Brealey; the human condition. Underestimating the innovate. For this, “radical reform” is needed Nicholas Brealey Publishing; value of human beings and assuming that in the education system, which will also 224 pages (Paperback). the future will be a continuum of the past are become more personalised. Published 10 September 2019. ARTS & BOOKS 36

Sam Dumitriu is Inadequate Equilibria Research Director at The by Eliezer Yudkowsky Entrepreneurs Network

omehow, someone is going to You should be doubtful of your ability to spot What are the implications for governing? horribly misuse all the advice even the smallest inaccuracy in the pricing One might be to use prediction markets “S that is contained within this of, say, Microsoft stock. As Yudkowsky to aid the delivery of key pledges. If the book”, writes Eliezer Yudkowsky in the points out, “there are thousands of diverse Government’s retention plan is insufficient conclusion of Inadequate Equilibria: How intelligent actors who are all individually to add 50,000 nurses to the NHS, civil Civilisations Get Stuck. If you recognise allowed to spot errors, correct them, and servants should be able to bet against his name, it’s likely to be in relation to be rewarded, with no central veto.” It is in delivery and provide valuable information Dominic Cummings’ unconventional job his words “the peak of all human power of to ministers. advertisement; his ideas run throughout estimation”. If you think you can beat the We still don’t know whether talk of the post. market, you’re probably a crank. Whitehall reform will be more bluster and Yudkowsky is the founder of Machine But sometimes, there are trillion dollar symbolism than reality. But it’s hard not to be Intelligence Research Institute and creator bills lying around. Yudkowsky cites the excited by the fact that people in government of the popular blog LessWrong. He is example of a third of babies with short are thinking deeply about thinking. part of the rationalist movement, a group bowel syndrome dying in the US because dedicated to improving reasoning and the FDA approved IV fluid they’re given decision making. contains the wrong mix of fats. Inadequate Inadequate Equilibria is worth reading Equilibria is about how to tell the latter for two reasons. Primarily as a guide to example from the former. what Cummings’ ambitious plans for Inadequate equilibria have at least one of reforming government might entail. But also the three following features. First, the policy because it refines thinking at the core of equivalents of ‘trillion dollar bills’ tend to small ‘c’ conservatism. be more common where decision makers The rationalist movement and receive no benefit from picking them up. conservatism may not seem obviously Rachel Wolf’s reference to the civil service connected. But, as the writer Tom Chivers merry-go-round, where anyone in the same notes, rationalists take Chesterton’s Fence role for more than 18 months is seen to – the imperative that reformers ought to have stalled, is a good example. understand why a fence was erected before Second, lots of people scream that tearing it down – seriously. they’ve identified the one trick that can Inadequate Equilibria is an attempt to save the world. Most of them are kooks outline when you should try to tear down who pitch think tanks diagrams explaining the fence. Should we be confident, as their perpetual motion machines. When you Cummings is, that we can radically improve identify a problem, there’s no guarantee that the effectiveness of our government? Are you’ll be listened to. there, as Cummings puts it, “trillion dollar Third, there are situations where no Inadequate Equilibria, bills lying on the street”? single individual can improve the situation. Eliezer Yudkowsky; Yudkowsky starts with the idea of efficient Think of the classic Prisoner’s Dilemma Machine Intelligence Research Institute; markets. If there’s one place you won’t find scenario where everyone would be better 167 pages (Paperback). a trillion dollar bill it’s in a stock exchange. off if only they could coordinate. Published 16 November 2017. ARTS & BOOKS 37

Keith Tomlinson is Bagehot: The Life and Times founder of Tomlinson of the Greatest Victorian Research Limited By James Grant

ames Grant’s insightful look at the resembled a pair of simmering kettles, Bagehot’s life, The Works of Bagehot, 19th century financial journalist Bagehot’s had come to a boil.’ John Maynard Keynes notes that JWalter Bagehot helpfully starts with Bagehot’s run for Parliament is an Bagehot’s work is more a psychological the correct pronunciation of Bagehot entertaining look at how messy elections look at economics than theoretical. To (Badge-it). This timely biography reminds once were. Grant makes clear why anyone who lived through the Great us why Bagehot’s work is still relevant Bagehot did not have a taste for it: Financial Crisis of 2008 and the knock-on today, including practical matters like how “Sometimes election agents rounded Eurozone crisis that followed, these works to deal with a run on a bank, but also up amenable voters, herded them into remind us how little the human operators how he viewed behaviour and motives a party-affiliated public house, turned of complex financial machinery have in the financial world. on the liquor, and locked the door.” changed. Grant is the ideal writer to show Grant is known for his witty financial Plying with alcohol was only one form us why this behavioural aspect is still so writing. He once described the risks of bribery, though it seemed effective important. facing bond investors in a low interest rate enough: “At length, the drunks would world thus: “The ‘risk-free return’ could be led to the polling place where, turn out to be a ‘return-free risk’”. under supervision, they would cast the Bagehot was also highly regarded appropriate ballot.” for his writing, including his principal Bagehot’s best-known work is works Lombard Street and The Lombard Street, describing the time- English Constitution as well as editor tested method of dealing with a banking of The Economist. Indeed, it was crisis – to lend freely – that is used by Bagehot’s 1857 meeting with Economist modern bankers on a global scale. My founder James Wilson, also an MP favourite idea from Grant’s book is the and financial secretary in Lord paradox that Bagehot reveals in Lombard Palmerston’s Government, that Street: “The briefest and truest way of transformed Bagehot’s life. describing Lombard Street is ... it is by far We are not the only ones who needed the greatest combination of economical help with Bagehot’s name. On Bagehot power and economic delicacy that the meeting his future wife, James Wilson’s world has ever seen.” daughter Eliza Wilson, Grant writes: Grant shows us how financial writers of “At dinner, the eldest, Eliza, twenty-four, different eras develop their predecessor’s insisted on hearing his unpronounceable ideas, noting that John Kenneth name spelled out so that she wouldn’t Galbraith’s ‘bezzle’ concept – how long forget it.” it takes for the embezzlement victim to The “woman scorning bachelor”, as notice their loss – builds on Bagehot’s Bagehot: The life and times of the Grant describes Bagehot, falls for Eliza observation that investors are most greatest Victorian, Wilson and describes their relationship: believing when they are most happy. James Grant; “When he was apart from her, he read, This turns out to be a key insight to WW Norton & Company Limited; reread, and kissed her letters, ‘til I begin financial fraud. 368 pages (Hardback). to get wild.’” If a Victorian courtship In a review of an earlier look at Published 23 July 2019. ARTS & BOOKS 38

Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Anne le Roux is a Strategies Bright Blue member By Nick Bostrom

ver the last few years, artificial answer as to when these events are likely overview for those considering further intelligence (AI) has become to unfold. Rather, Bostrom embraces this research. Having said this, the content Oan area of rapidly increasing uncertainty and takes the opportunity to is clearly structured, the concepts are interest. Machine learning algorithms consider multiple possibilities, and what accessible to readers of any background, are becoming more powerful, and it is they might mean for society. The result is a and it is a fascinating insight into the becoming important to consider, not tour through a myriad of potential futures, world of intelligence research. For those just when human intelligence will be some much less appealing than others. looking for a less technical overview surpassed, but what will happen after this As well as offering insights into the future of the topics, Stuart Russell’s Human point. Nick Bostrom’s Superintelligence: of intelligence research, Bostrom outlines Compatible, released in 2019, considers Paths, Dangers, Strategies sets out to some potential strategies for ensuring similar issues, with a particular focus make predictions about the landscape of that these technologies are developed on artificial intelligence as a path to human and artificial intelligence research safely and ethically. These range from superintelligence. within the next few centuries. technical recommendations on algorithm development, to suggestions for improving “ Bostrom outlines some ethical research norms and building potential strategies for institutions that prioritise safety over ensuring that these fast development. In particular, Bostrom technologies are addresses the problems with setting developed safely and objectives for future intelligent systems, ethically.” and ensuring that these are in line with humanity’s interests. As Bostrom acknowledges, this is no easy task and there are many large “ Machine learning sources of uncertainty when making algorithms are becoming predictions stretching this far into the more powerful, and it is future. For the most part, the book becoming important to aims to consider paths to developing consider, not just when an ‘intelligence’ that outperforms human intelligence will be humans in every significant way, and the surpassed, but what will consequences of these different paths, happen after this point.” rather than making predictions about the timescale of these events. A likely Superintelligence is well structured, path to this superintelligence is via the although the writing is often technical, development of artificial intelligence with a large section of the book dedicated Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, and machine learning algorithms, but to notes on calculations, estimates, Strategies, other scenarios, including whole brain and assumptions. Because of this, the Nick Bostrom; emulation and cognitive enhancement, are book is likely to be particularly useful as Oxford University Press; considered throughout the book. a reference text for those interested in 328 pages (Hardback). The book does not provide a decisive developing policy in this area, or as an Published 3 July 2014. 39

Joseph Silke is a Research Film: 1917 and Communications Directed by Sam Mendes Assistant at Bright Blue

917 is a sweeping spectacle of Morpurgo’s Private Peaceful (2012) the central characters navigate the horror. Director Sam Mendes has and the BBC’s television adaptation treacherous obstacles of the Western 1brought the terror of trench warfare of Birdsong (2012). Fans of the hit- Front. It is a shame that there are points to the big screen like nobody before. It series Game of Thrones (2011-19) when this is interrupted, but nonetheless is unflinching, like iconic classics such might recognise a grown-up Chapman, the illusion succeeds in building tension as Saving Private Ryan (1998), and by who played the Henry VI-inspired boy throughout the two-hour running time. the time the credits roll one feels like King Tommen. The characters and their The most detrimental part of the film is one has been through a hellish ordeal. relationship are the focus of the film, and probably the roll call of cameos. Famous It is an intensely aesthetic film, with the two have quality chemistry on-screen. faces from Colin Firth to Benedict masterful cinematography skills to match Neither lead is ostentatious, nor Cumberbatch and others pop up its ambition. While there are bugbears labouring in their performance, and this throughout the two hours in a way which that hold it back from the status of an gives credence to the presentation of cannot help but break the immersion that unblemished masterpiece, it is not one the two as simple, ordinary young men Mendes goes to such lengths to create. to miss. caught in the crossfire of Armageddon. It is difficult not to be taken out of the They feel relatable, unlike the action with such distractions; it feels “ There are some films superhuman terminators often depicted forced and rather pointless. Is it really which ought to be seen in war films. important that the cantankerous colonel on the big screen to be While the enemy has about the same is a household name when they are only fully appreciated and marksmanship ability as a stormtrooper, in the film for a handful of minutes? This 1917 is one such flick.” the cost of war is nonetheless laid issue is most jarring at the end of the film, bare by the cost of the expedition for which ought to be the emotional crux, but The slightly implausible plot may annoy our characters. One could argue that instead is yet another cameo. some, but that hardly matters because some of the set pieces feel contrived, the film is rooted in the experience of and could undermine the grittiness that “ What it means for the the journey rather than the destination. comes from a more realistic depiction viewer is a profound Our heroes, played by George MacKay of the experience of war, but this can be feeling of intimacy with and Dean-Charles Chapman, must make forgiven if you allow yourself to suspend the action as the central it from point A to point B to prevent disbelief in aid of appreciating the overall characters navigate the their comrades from succumbing to a cinematic experience, which hits home treacherous obstacles of German trap. The enemy has cut off regardless. the Western Front.” communication channels, so the two Mendes, who based the sequences protagonists must venture out alone to on the stories of his veteran grandfather, There are some films which ought reach the front line in time to call off opted to give the viewer the illusion of a to be seen on the big screen to be the attack. continuous camera shot throughout the fully appreciated and 1917 is one such The two leads do a fantastic job as film. The idea built upon the acclaimed flick. It is not perfect, but it is certainly your bog-standard Tommy. MacKay will Day of the Dead opening scene in his an experience and a marvel of be familiar to those with a penchant for second Bond film, Spectre (2015). What cinematography. If you get the chance First World War dramas, having starred it means for the viewer is a profound to see it before it leaves cinemas: in the film adaptation of Sir Michael feeling of intimacy with the action as do it.