LONG TERM RAIL STRATEGY A twenty-year vision to develop rail in the North of England CONTENTS COMMISSIONING CLIENTS’ FOREWORD 4 Value for Money 53 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6 2012 Rail Technical Strategy 54 Overview 6 Summary of Key Points 55 Approach 6 5. GAP ANALYSIS 57 Vision 7 Introduction 57 Evidence 7 Connectivity and Economic Growth 59 Outputs and Benefits 11 Adequate Provision of Capacity 62 Conclusion 11 Improving the Coherence of the Railways 62 1. INTRODUCTION 13 A More Cost Effective Railway 66 Long Term Rail Strategy 13 Reducing Environmental Impacts 68 Context 13 Long Term Strategic Gaps 69 Geographic Scope 15 Document Structure 15 6. OUTPUTS AND BENEFITS ASSESSMENT 71 Introduction 71 2. VISION 17 Headline Output 71 Introduction 17 Potential Benefits 75 Approach 17 Connectivity and Supporting The Vision 18 Economic Growth 77 Stakeholder Priorities 21 Adequate Provision of Capacity 83 3. ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONTEXT 25 Improving the Quality Coherence Introduction 25 of the Railways 84 The North’s Economy 25 A More Efficient Cost Effective Railway 85 Connectivity 29 Reducing Environmental Impacts 86 Deprivation 30 7. IMPLEMENTATION 89 Environment 31 Introduction 89 Access to Employment 31 Keeping the Key Objectives in Sight 89 Access to Health 32 Scenarios 89 Access to Education 32 Responsibilities for Implementation 90 Summary of Key Points 33 Defining Service Categories 91 4. RAIL IN THE NORTH 35 Electrification 92 Introduction 35 Enhancing Connectivity 95 Network Overview 35 Strategic Programme 96 Demand 38 Implementation Processes 102 Journey times 43 Monitoring 105 Rolling Stock 46 APPENDIX: POTENTIAL FARES REGIME 107 Community Rail Partnerships 47 A Harmonised and Simplified Stations 48 Fares System 107 International Gateways 48 Subsidy 51 Train Operator Costs and Cost Drivers 52 The McNulty Study of Rail 2 | RAIL NORTH FIGURES Figure 1.1 The Long Term Rail Strategy Area 14 Figure 3.1 Historic GVA in the North 26 Figure 3.2 GVA Growth by Region (Indexed to 2011) 27 Figure 4.1 Inter-Regional and Long Distance Services 36 Figure 4.2 Local and Rural Routes 37 Figure 4.3 Northern Strategic Freight Routes 38 Figure 4.4 Total Rail Demand and Percentage of UK Demand by LEP Areas 39 Figure 4.5 Growth Forecast Comparison 40 Figure 4.6 Rail Freight Growth by Region 41 Figure 4.7 London Journey Time, Speed and Frequency Per Hour 43 Figure 4.8 Average Age of Rolling Stock 46 Figure 4.9 Air Passenger Traffic (2013) 49 Figure 4.10 Major Port Freight Traffic 2012 50 Figure 4.11 TOC Subsidy (Pence per passenger km – 2012/13) 51 Figure 6.1 Factors Contributing to Rail Generalised Journey Cost 72 Figure 7.1 Candidate Vision for Wider Electrification of the North’s Strategic Routes 93 TABLES Table 4.1 Fastest Direct Rail Journeys Between Key Cities 44 Table 4.2 Direct and Indirect Journeys to Other Major Mainline Stations 45 Table 4.3 Key Measures Highlighted in the ORR Costs and Revenue 2012 52 Table 5.1 Identified Strategic Gaps in the North of England 58 Table 6.1 Potential Benefits Summary 75 Table 6.2 Target Output Rail Journey Times (2020s) 79 Table 7.1 Anticipated Journey Times from London with HS2 100 LONG TERM RAIL STRATEGY | 3 COMMISSIONING CLIENTS’ FOREWORD We want rail in the North to grow. The reason for this is simple: growing rail will support a growing economy. More than this, a growing rail network will help the North’s economy meet its full potential. We want rail in the North to grow. The reason for to deliver the benefits the Strategy identifies. this is simple: growing rail will support a growing The Strategy is separate from discussion on how economy. More than this, a growing rail network will rail provision in the North should be specified, help the North’s economy meet its full potential. managed and governed. The key outputs defined This Long Term Rail Strategy sets out how are appropriate and necessary whatever governance rail can support the growth of the North of regime is in place for delivering rail services. England’s economy over the next twenty years. It In parallel to the development of this Strategy, the demonstrates how this can be done by improving Secretary of State for Transport and Rail North connectivity for passengers and freight across the have agreed to develop a partnership approach North, while at the same time providing a better to the re-franchised Northern and Transpennine customer experience and delivering a more efficient services. These franchises will commence in April and cost-effective railway. Delivering the Strategy 2016. A shared set of principles has been agreed to creates an opportunity to increase the North’s underpin this Partnership. These acknowledge the economy by up to £50bn over a 60 year appraisal importance of growing the railway to maximise the period, equivalent to an annual benefit of £900 benefits of infrastructure investment and linking million. The North’s railway has more than just an this to railway efficiencies and having a platform economic function; it has a social function too. As for determining investment priorities within the well as supporting economic growth, the Strategy Partnership. The Secretary of State has welcomed sets out how rail’s contribution to the North’s the principle of risk and reward sharing between social progress can be grown and enhanced. members of the Partnership. Rail North and the Achieving these outcomes will be challenging and Department for Transport are now working closely will not be possible without the commitment on the specification of these franchises, The parties from key partners from across the rail industry: are now working to agree detailed arrangements to Network Rail; passenger and freight operators; ensure that the franchises will be jointly designed Local Transport Authorities; and, the Department and managed by the Partnership, with DfT running for Transport. The Strategy is not, however, a the procurement processes to a common timetable. shopping list for rail in the North. It defines what A Consultation Draft of this Strategy was developed Conditional Outputs rail needs to provide, but how between August 2012 and January 2013. This Draft these are actually delivered will be for the industry Strategy was commissioned by Merseytravel, to decide. The Implementation Plan included Metro, Nexus, SYPTE and TfGM, with day to day within this Strategy sets out a path to identify management undertaken by SYPTE. Technical advice cost-effective and value for money interventions was provided by consultants Steer Davies Gleave. 4 | RAIL NORTH We are grateful for the inputs of the Task and Finish of presentations and meetings were held with Group of officers which has overseen the process. interested parties and two articles about the Task and Finish Group Members were drawn from draft Strategy appeared in the rail media. across the North’s Local Transport Authorities and In total, 111 responses were received from Group members sought to represent the views of individuals and organisations during the the whole of the North. We are particularly grateful consultation process. Rail North would like to for the work Task and Finish Group Members did thank all those who responded to the consultation. in canvassing views and comments from local These responses have been considered and the authorities and other interested parties. We Strategy has been refined accordingly. In the would also like to acknowledge the participation main, the draft Strategy was supported by the of Network Rail in the Task and Finish Group and consultees. From the consultation, it was clear that the participation of many stakeholders at events consultees did not consider wholesale redrafting and meetings in developing the Strategy. or restructuring to be required and the focus in A consultation process on this was held between redrafting the Strategy has been on refinement July and October 2013. A website was established and points of detail. A separate report summarising to host the consultation documents, with the consultation responses and how the Strategy a facility to submit online responses. Local has been developed and is available separately. Transport Authorities, the rail industry and other organisations were contacted to raise awareness of the Strategy and the consultation. A number LONG TERM RAIL STRATEGY | 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OVERVIEW The North’s rail network has experienced decades of under-investment that has now started to be addressed. Key routes will be electrified, and the North’s biggest rail bottleneck will be rectified as part of the Northern Hub programme. The Government is promoting a national high speed rail network that will by 2033 link cities in the North to Birmingham and London. The North has a very substantial rail network with around 500 stations, yet achieves only around 3.7% market share. Given rail demand is forecast to grow more strongly than that for car, the rail mode share is expected increase to 5.7% by the mid-2020s. Even with this growth, rail in the North of England will still not reach its full potential. In this Strategy, there is an ambition to create the conditions for this market share to double again over the same period, as well as for there to be strong and sustained growth in rail freight. The latest industry projections indicate growth from 23bn tonne-km carried by rail in 2011/12 to 48bn tonne-km by 2033/34 nationally. The high levels of annual growth in patronage that have been experienced in recent years across the North with a less vibrant economy (+66% between 2002 and 2012), will only continue if connectivity and capacity is improved further, and if rail offers a wider solution to travel needs in the North.