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NFL Super Bowl Prop Special ShoresteinSays.com 2020 - NFL Super Bowl Prop Special Mahomes over 27.5 Completions (-115) – This is one of the top props that jumped out at me. I think the Chiefs are going to throw a ton in this game as the Bucs have been near impossible to run on for virtually two full seasons. In their week 12 victory over Tampa, Mahomes was 37 of 49. While I don’t expect the huge downfield throws to be wide open like they were in the regular season, I think Andy Reid won’t waste any time running the ball if the lanes aren’t there. Mahomes over 21.5 rushing yards (-115) - While I wouldn’t expect the running backs to beat any of the prop yardage, I can see Mahomes picking up first downs with his feet in several scramble situations. By the time this game kicks off, I think his sore toe will have zero impact on his mobility. His running game was a huge part of what won them the Super Bowl a year ago, and I think he will definitely look for opportunities on the ground: 2019 Playoff Run Opponent Rushing Yards Rushing Att's Texans 53.00 7.00 Titans 53.00 8.00 49ers 29.00 9.00 **Bonus Add on** Mahomes Score a Rushing TD +300: He also rushed for 2 touchdowns in the 2019 playoffs, and I think at +300, there’s some decent value to be had there. Sammy Watkins over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-115): Watkins hasn’t played in a long time, but I love his pedigree in big games. I’m not overly concerned about his calf injury, as he was instantly declared available for the Super Bowl just a day after the AFC Championship. Mahomes clearly has great chemistry with him as he has looked his way in some of the biggest moments of his young career: Sammy Watkins Playoff Career as a Chief Season Opponent Catches Yards 2018 Indianapolis 6.00 62.00 2018 New England 4.00 114.00 2019 Houston 2.00 76.00 2019 Tennessee 7.00 114.00 2019 San Francisco 5.00 98.00 I don’t think much of Bruce Arians and Todd Bowles, but I’d be stunned if they didn’t have two men watching Tyreek Hill the entire game. He went off for 200+ yards in a single quarter the last time they played. I think this has to open up space and opportunities for Watkins and some of the secondary receiving options, so I think there’s a great chance he breaks the 32 yard mark. Tyrann Mathieu over 4.5 tackles (-115): I’m really surprised to see this number so low. He’s played some of his best games in the spot light and is an extremely aggressive player. This number was 5.5 in the Super Bowl last year and he had it beat by the 3rd quarter. As long as the Chiefs continue to make the Super Bowl, this will continue to be a prop bet for me. **Bonus Add-On: He’s also at +555 for an Interception. Count me in for that as well.** Over 1.5 Total INT’s in the Game (+150): I also think this one’s worth a shot as well. Both Tampa and KC were in the top 5 in interceptions forced per game. Mahomes doesn’t throw a lot of them, but the Bucs have plenty of risk takers in the secondary that could catch him off guard. Brady on the other hand has thrown quite a few lately. He’s surprisingly thrown 7 picks in his last 6 playoff games. I think there’s pretty good value on this at +150. Brady longest completion over 39.5 yards (-115): I like the over for Brady and the Bucs on this one. For starters, the Bucs have been one of the best downfield throwing teams in the NFL all season as they ranked 2nd in yards per reception. In the first matchup with the Chiefs, 4 different Bucs receivers had catches that went 30 yards or more. Steve Spagnola isn’t afraid to dial up the heat on Brady and send pressure, but I think this creates opportunities for some big plays if there are missed tackles. Ronald Jones under 9.5 Rushing Attempts (-115): Since the playoffs have started, Jones has seen his role diminish. Partly due to injury, but I think it has more to do with Leonard Fournette’s emergence. Jones has failed to log more than 30% of offensive snaps since returning from his injury. I like Kansas City in this game as you can probably tell, and therefore I wouldn’t expect him to see a lot of opportunities to run if they are trailing. Travis Kelce longest Reception over 24.5 Yards (-115): As I mentioned earlier, I fully expect Tampa to take away Tyreek Hill. I think this will create more targets for Kelce, and I think it is more likely for him to break off a 25+ yard run. He’s just been too dynamic throughout his career and he has ramped us production to a whole new level this post season. I think his yardage and reception totals for this game are really high, but I am willing to take a chance on him having 1 big play. Total Penalties under 10.5 (-110): I like that the refs have kept their flags in their pockets for the most part this post season. Only 3 of the 12 playoff games played so far have had 11 or more penalties called in them. Carl Cheffers is the head ref for the game… I would take the under for any ref that didn’t have the last name Hochuli…. Total Penalties by Game Tampa / GB 6.00 KC / Buffalo 7.00 Tampa / NO 12.00 KC / Cleveland 10.00 Buffalo / Baltimore 10.00 Buffalo / Indy 4.00 Batlimore / Tennessee 7.00 Cleveland / Pittsburgh 7.00 GB / LA Rams 6.00 LA Rams / Seattle 11.00 Tampa / Washington 5.00 Chicago / New Orleans 13.00 Overall Thoughts: I think I am leaning on Kansas City to cover the 3.5 points. I’ve maintained that they’ve been the best team all year, and I think they are just now starting to play their best football. Their defense continues to be under rated as they completely shut down Josh Allen and his talented crew of wideouts. I’ve seen Spagnola play Brady as well as any defensive game planner around. Chris Jones is the type of player that gives Brady problems as he generates pressure from the interior line. But most importantly, I just don’t think there’s a defense that can slow down Kansas City once they get rolling. There’s far too much speed all over the field, and they have a generational talent at QB. To top it off they have one of the best offensive minds in NFL history drawing up the plays. Enjoy the game everyone! ShoresteinSays.com All picks and information are for entertainment purposes only. Therefore, we are not liable nor responsible for any bets that you make. If you wish to opt out of this email, please notify me directly. You are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution, or copying of this communication is strictly prohibited. We are not affiliated with the NFL in anyway and we are not a gambling site. Thank you! Follow us on Twitter @n_Shorestein .
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