The US Automotive Product Pipeline Car Wars 2020-2023 The Rise (and Fall) of the Crossover? Equity | 10 May 2019 Car Wars thesis and investment relevance Car Wars is an annual proprietary study that assesses the relative strength of each automaker’s product pipeline in the US. The purpose is to quantify industry product trends, and then relate our findings to investment decisions. Our thesis is fairly straightforward: we believe replacement rate drives showroom age, which drives market United States Autos/Car Manufacturers share, which drives profits and stock prices. OEMs with the highest replacement rate and youngest showroom age have generally gained share from model years 2004-19. John Murphy, CFA Research Analyst Ten key findings of our study MLPF&S +1 646 855 2025 1. Product activity remains reasonably robust across the industry, but the ramp into a
[email protected] softening market will likely drive overcrowding and profit pressure. Aileen Smith Research Analyst 2. New vehicle introductions are 70% CUVs and Light Trucks, and just 24% Small and MLPF&S Mid/Large Cars. The material CUV overweight (45%) will likely pressure the +1 646 743 2007
[email protected] segment’s profitability to the low of passenger cars, and/or will leave dealers with a Yarden Amsalem dearth of entry level product to offer, further increasing an emphasis on used cars. Research Analyst MLPF&S 3. Product cadence overall continues to converge, making the market increasingly
[email protected] competitive, which should drive incremental profit pressure across the value chain. Gwen Yucong Shi 4.