Discovering Hidden Value
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Discovering Hidden Value Investor Presentation November 2013 Discovering Hidden Value Disclaimer These materials contain forward-looking statements regarding Cairn, our corporate plans, future financial condition, future results of operations, future business plans and strategies. All such forward-looking statements are based on our management's assumptions and beliefs in the light of information available to them at this time. These forward-looking statements are, by their nature, subject to significant risks and uncertainties and actual results, performance and achievements may be materially different from those expressed in such statements. Factors that may cause actual results, performance or achievements to differ from expectations include, but are not limited to, regulatory changes, future levels of industry product supply, demand and pricing, weather and weather related impacts, wars and acts of terrorism, development and use of technology, acts of competitors and other changes to business conditions. Cairn undertakes no obligation to revise any such forward-looking statements to reflect any changes in Cairn's expectations with regard thereto or any change in circumstances or events after the date hereof. Discovering Hidden Value Investor Presentation, November 2013 2 Creating Value Through Exploration Led Growth Significant gearing to exploration success Exploration Atlantic Margin, Mediterranean, North Sea; led growth >$300 million exploration spend per annum Frontier wells targeting >4 billion boe of mean unrisked gross prospective resource in 2013 / 2014 Full cycle E&P Balance Sheet strength capability with Funded to deliver drilling and development programme funding strength and Target sustainable production to deliver exploration flexibility capital from cash flows Focus on value not scale with active portfolio management Create and Returned $4.5 billion to shareholders in last 5 years realise value Programme to repurchase up to US$300 million (m) of ordinary shares in the company to be reviewed by the Board on a quarterly basis Discovering Hidden Value Investor Presentation, November 2013 3 Strategic Delivery Commencing an active operational period after building balanced portfolio Multi-well exploration campaign over next 12 Create months with increased targets: Value >4 billion boe gross mean unrisked prospective Explore Discover resource within a total yet to find (YTF) potential Invest Acquire >10 billion boe Organic growth value potential highlighted by partnerships (Statoil / ConocoPhillips) and increased industry activity exploring the same plays Realise Add Kraken and Catcher on-track to provide future cash flows Value Value Produce Transact Organic Growth Financial discipline Sell Re-invest Transact Develop Cash return Active portfolio management Balance sheet strength Discovering Hidden Value Investor Presentation, November 2013 4 Operational Targets 2013 2014 2015 Potential Morocco Senegal Senegal Greenland Cajun Morocco Future (Op) (Op) (Op) (Op) (Op) Express Cap Deepwater Shelf Exploration Foum Draa Pitu 1 year Juby Fan Prospect contract Spain Future Malta prospect Mauritania generation Ireland Blackford Ireland Morocco Dolphin (Op) Senegal Greenland Transformational Transformational New Ventures UK Exploration Programme Exploration K Prospect 9/1a (Op) Future Farm-ins FDPs on North Sea Bid Rounds Developments prospect New Kraken and Catcher generation Opportunities Continental Shelf Continental North Sea Exploration and Appraisal Programme (Non-Op) – ongoing ( target >4 wells per year ) North Sea and Norwegian and Sea North Target timetable subject to necessary approvals Discovering Hidden Value Investor Presentation, November 2013 5 Funding and Capital Allocation Funding Financial Assets at 30 September 2013 Financial assets ~$2.4bn* Cash $1.4bn Debt finance to be secured Free cash flow from completed development projects Cairn India (CIL) Stake ~10.3%) ~$1bn Allocation 2013 / 2014 combined E&A drilling programme includes more than 15 wells, totalling ~$700m Financial Assets at 31 December 2012 Allocate capital to maximise shareholder returns Cash over the cycle $1.6bn ~50% of available liquidity used to fund development capex Balance focussed on exploration and appraisal CIL Stake $1.1bn Discovering Hidden Value * As at 30 September 2013 Investor Presentation, November 2013 6 Funding Platform for Ongoing Business Development Projects 9/1b 9/1a 9/2b Cairn 40% Cairn 100% Cairn 25% (Non-Op) (Op) (Non-Op) Kraken Project sanctioned H2 2013 K Prospect Kraken Operator’s gross reserves ~137mmboe, Cairn 25% 9/2c Operator anticipates second heavy oil allowance Cairn 25% (Non-Op) Carry of $150m - $240m based on reserves* 28/8 28/9a 28/10c Cairn 46% Cairn 30% Cairn 30% Catcher (Non-Op) (Non-Op) Catcher (Non-Op) Varadero Through concept selection phase 28/9b Carnaby Cairn 30% Draft FDP expected H2 2013 (Non-Op) Burgman Bonneville *reserves determined by a competent person during the development drilling phase Discovering Hidden Value Investor Presentation, November 2013 7 Exploration Strategy To seek hidden value through transformational Frontier Basin Exploration exploration potential Mature Basin Exploration Frontier and potentially high impact New plays and prospectivity close to exploration plays of the Atlantic Margin existing pre-development projects in (Senegal, Morocco, Greenland, Ireland, the UK North Sea and Norwegian Mauritania and Spain) continental shelf Ireland UK Norway Spain West Greenland India Residual CIL shareholding South Greenland Senegal Mauritania Morocco Growing Prospect and Lead inventory to provide sustainable exploration activity into the future Currently 62 prospects and 144 leads Near-term exploration drilling programme targets top ~10% of prospects Discovering Hidden Value Investor Presentation, November 2013 8 Geological Focus North Atlantic Margin – Play fairways associated with super-continental break-up UK and Ireland Norway West Greenland Greenland Norway South Greenland Ireland Spain Morocco ~175Ma Middle Jurassic Plate reconstruction Mauritania (PLATES/UTIG, 2009) Senegal Senegal Mauritania Morocco Spain Discovering Hidden Value Investor Presentation, November 2013 9 Frontier Exploration North Atlantic Margin Different Geographies Similar Geologies G Schematic NS True frontier province with proven Jurassic and WS Cretaceous oil prone source rocks in incipient rift and restricted marine basin settings B Majors Enter Nova Scotia Deepwater Diachronous geological processes along margin Dec 2012 Key proven data points indicate oil potential Deepwater Drilling N Moratorium Deep-water margin off the US east coast has had a drilling moratorium since 1982 and CJ remains unexplored Multiple industry players are becoming AC increasingly active along accessible frontier NW Africa impending industry deepwater and frontier exploration activity parts of the north Atlantic Margin (NW Africa, RD Rift Basins Canada, Ireland and Greenland) The majors entered deep-water Canada off the Key proven oil data points: coast of Nova Scotia in Dec 2012 CJ Cap Juby (Morocco) N Newfoundland oil province AC Aigrette-1 / Chinguetti (Mauritania) G Cairn Alpha well, Disko Bay Cairn is actively pioneering exploration along the margin RD Rufisque dome (Senegal) WS West of Shetland and has secured a growing acreage footprint B Burren (Ireland) NS North Sea using its knowledge and operational edge Discovering Hidden Value Investor Presentation, November 2013 10 June 30th Snapshot of Prospect Inventory PoCS vs.PoCS Gross Unrisked vs. - All Gross Prospects - Current Unrisked - Prospects 62* Prospects 70% Marginal / (and 144 leads still being Sub-Commercial worked on but not shown) More Work Needed 60% UK and Drillable / Norway Commercial Ireland Spanish Point is a Spanish Point Discovery and not a Field 50% Greenland prospect, but is shown for comparative Pitu Py Prospect purposes Example of exploration 40% Ireland lead yet to be matured Spanish Point Senegal post Exploration ConocoPhillips Senegal as a prospect Probability Of SuccessCommercialProbability farm out 30% UK K Lead 20% Probability of Commercial Success (PoCS) Success Commercialof Probability Senegal Deepwater Fan ‘Bubble’ Size Proportional to 10% Net To Cairn Risked Morocco Commercial Greenland Prospective Resources 0% 5 50 500 * Includes 3 prospects covered by 3D 5000 seismic in Southern Greenland extension Gross Unrisked Prospective Resources (MMBOE) area yet to be awarded Discovering Hidden Value Investor Presentation, November 2013 11 Morocco Frontier Exploration Atlantic Margin Nova Scotia Offshore Activity Extensive industry focus on new Shell, BP, Chevron, play types Exxon, and EnCana Schematic Plate Reconstruction - After Luheshi 2012 Proven hydrocarbon systems Cairn operates a substantial Spain acreage position in Morocco Newfoundland > 8,500 km2 (equivalent to ~38 North Sea blocks) Positive contractual and fiscal terms Morocco Exploration wells targeted 2013 / 2014 Morocco Morocco Offshore Activity Operators include: Cairn, Chevron, Genel, Galp, Plains, Kosmos, Chariot, Total, Repsol and Teredo Discovering Hidden Value Investor Presentation, November 2013 12 Morocco Foum Draa Prospect and Planned Exploration Well (Q3/Q4 2013) Foum Draa Acreage Rak-1 Seismic Amplitude at Reservoir Level 2 Spain ~3,337 km (2004, Shell) Planned Foum Draa N ‘A’ Prospect Exploration Well Foum Draa Offshore 1, 2 &3 Primary target: Morocco Early Cretaceous/ Late Juby Jurassic apron fan Mauritania Maritime I sandstones