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An Assessment of Road Network Optimality in Tigray, Ethiopia

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An Assessment of Road Network Optimality in Tigray, Ethiopia AN ASSESSMENT OF ROAD NETWORK OPTIMALITY IN TIGRAY, ETHIOPIA Geographic remoteness and poverty connected INTERDISCIPLINARY PROJECT By Axel Hirschel (10656146), Wai Kee Man (10580514) & Claudia Schwennen (10655808) Date: 8 May 2016 Words: 6585 Supervisors: Koen van der Gaast & Crelis Rammelt Abstract In recent years major public investments have been made in infrastructure development in Ethiopia. The Ethiopian Roads Authority (ERA) has expressed its goal for this road development, which is mainly poverty alleviation. This study is focused on evaluating the optimality of the current road network regarding this goal by taking geographic remoteness and poverty per woreda, which is a part of a province, into consideration. There are just a few towns in Tigray that are not geographically remote. Poverty is also not evenly distributed throughout the province. The poverty rate is generally higher in areas with higher population density. With the use of Geographic Information System (GIS) data files and a self-made algorithm, it is concluded that the current network is not optimal yet. 1 Table of Contents 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 3 2. Theoretical framework .............................................................................................................................. 5 2.1 Impact of roads on poverty ................................................................................................................. 5 2.2 Network optimality .............................................................................................................................. 6 2.3 Geographic remoteness ....................................................................................................................... 8 2.4 Integration of the different concepts and theories ............................................................................. 8 3. Methodology ........................................................................................................................................... 10 3.1 Design of the optimality algorithm .................................................................................................... 10 3.3 Poverty assessment ........................................................................................................................... 12 3.3 Geographic remoteness assessment ................................................................................................. 13 4. Results ..................................................................................................................................................... 14 4.1 Results of the poverty assessment .................................................................................................... 15 4.2 Results of the geographic remoteness assessment ........................................................................... 16 4.3 Results of the optimality algorithm ................................................................................................... 17 5. Discussion ................................................................................................................................................ 18 6. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................... 20 References ................................................................................................................................................... 21 Appendix A. ArcGIS data used in the geographic remoteness assessment ................................................. 23 Appendix B. Woreda information used in the poverty assessment ............................................................ 25 Appendix C: Roads in current network and optimal network and algorithm codes ................................... 27 2 1. Introduction Ethiopia is one of the least developed and poorest countries in the world. It has gone through various types of regimes and disasters such as drought, famine and civil war. As it is an agrarian economy, 81% of the population in 2014 lives in rural areas (World Bank, n.d.) where the poverty rate is exceptionally high. Therefore, strategies focused on developing agricultural growth are essential in reducing the country’s poverty (Diao & Pratt 2007; Easterly, 2002). Road development is one of the status quo strategies to tackle these problems. According to World Bank (2009), they are the fundament of a country’s infrastructure, support growth in agriculture and industry and they provide access to internal markets and social infrastructure. Various studies support this theory as they have showed that better road quality and more access to rural areas have a positive impact on poverty reduction (Dercon, Gilligan, Hoddinott & Woldehanna, 2009; Khandker, Bakht & Koolwal, 2009). Ethiopia’s government tackles problems with road development, because most research suggests that roads have a significant influence on poverty reduction. Still, parts of Ethiopia are unconnected and/or reliant on economic policy of the government. As a lot of money is invested in Ethiopia’s road development plans (World Bank, 2009) and it holds great potential to reduce poverty, it is essential that these roads are allocated optimally within Ethiopia. This means that the plans should have an impact on what it is meant to be for, in this case poverty reduction. Especially impoverished regions should have some priority, while also keeping in mind the investments that need to be put into the project. A factor that greatly determines the investments is the geographic remoteness of regions. This could significantly increase the investments, which might not be feasible (Bird et al., 2010). If the network is not optimal, it means millions of dollars are gone to waste and an unnecessary amount of people still suffer in poverty. This research will assess both this factor and the poverty rate in order to conduct an assessment of the optimality of the current road network in Ethiopia. Moreover, only asphalt road will be considered in this research, due to the available resources of this research and because these form a stronger factor in the accessibility to large urban centres (Hearn, 2011). Optimality within infrastructure design is often defined as network reliability. The general idea within the multiple forms of network reliability is that the network can perform its proposed service level adequately for the period of time intended under the operating conditions encountered (Billington & Allan, 1992). This implies a pragmatic approach in which the results of a network are most important and should fulfill the wishes of the users. Within most research, the proposed service level is a directly measurable unit. However, the intended service of a network is subjective and is therefore reliant on interpretations of its function. Within the context of Ethiopian road development, the government had specified the services that roads were to perform. The two large-scale road sector development programs (RSDP) during the period between 1997 and 2009 had selection criteria of the Ethiopian Roads Authority (ERA), shown in table 1. These criteria and their weighting indicate the 3 goals of RSDPs: economic development and the provision of access to remote regions to alleviate poverty (Shiferaw, Soederbom, Siba & Alemu, 2012). Table 1 ERA’s weight for Road Placements (Shiferaw, Soederbom, Siba & Alemu, 2012) So within this paper the optimality of Ethiopian province Tigray’s current road network is used as a case study. It should be noted that this assessment will prove that poverty can be alleviated. The current placement of roads is analyzed on basis of poverty and remoteness. Tigray was suitable since a lot of data was available for this province, and the province contains a variety of remote locations. It is therefore possible to see which areas have been prioritized, and evaluate whether this was optimal. The research question is: “To what extent can the road network in Tigray, Ethiopia, be optimized to lessen poverty based on poverty rates and geographic remoteness?” The sub questions are listed below. ● How is the degree of geographic remoteness distributed in Tigray? ● How is the degree of poverty distributed in Tigray? ● How optimal is the current road network in Tigray? Since Ethiopia has limited budgets for road network development, not every town can be connected. This means that certain towns have been prioritized within the government. Using a self-made algorithm and Geographic Information System (GIS) data, it is possible to assess this prioritization on basis of the services roads should provide according to the ERA. firstly, the theoretical framework of the research is explained further in this report. The integration of the various disciplines is also mentioned within this chapter. Secondly, the methodological approach is explained, and the choices within the algorithm are clarified. Thirdly, the results of the research is presented. fourthly, the results and the limitations of the research are discussed. Lastly, a few clear recommendations for network improvement and the overall consequences of the research are given. 4 2. THeoretical frameworK 2.1 Impact of roads on poverty Numerous researches have been conducted, but overall several factors can be identified of the impact of roads
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