If p, then p! Or: A crisis of Identity Matthew Mandelkern* Draft of July 22, 2019 All the dialecticians in common say that a conditional is sound when its finisher follows from its leader. But on the question of when it follows, and how, they disagree with one another. Sextus Empiricus: AM VIII.112 Abstract The Identity principle says that conditionals with the form pIf p, then pq are logical truths. Identity is overwhelmingly plausible, and has rarely been explicitly chal- lenged. But a wide range of conditionals nonetheless invalidate it. I explain the problem, and argue that the culprit is the principle known as Import-Export, which we must thus reject. I then explore how we can reject Import-Export in a way that still makes sense of the intuitions that support it, arguing that the differences between indicative and subjunctive conditionals play a key role in solving this puzzle. 1 Introduction Sextus Empiricus’s summation in the epigraph remains apt. Clearly a conditional in some sense says that the consequent follows from the antecedent; there remains a * All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL, United Kingdom,
[email protected]. Many thanks to audiences at Oxford, NYU, MCMP, and UCL, and to Andrew Bacon, Kyle Blumberg, Susanne Bobzien, David Boylan, Sam Carter, Ivano Ciardelli, Nilanjan Das, Kevin Dorst, Kit Fine, Branden Fitelson, Vera Flocke, Simon Goldstein, Jeremy Goodman, Ben Holguín, Justin Khoo, Cameron Domenico Kirk-Giannini, Angelika Kratzer, Vann McGee, Eliot Michaelson, Jonathan Phillips, Milo Phillips-Brown, Daniel Rothschild, Ian Rumfitt, Bernhard Salow, Philippe Schlenker, Ginger Schultheis, and Robert Stalnaker for very helpful feedback and discussion.