Balancing Bioenergy and Biosecurity Policies: Estimating Current and Future Climate Suitability Patterns for a Bioenergy Crop
GCB Bioenergy (2014) 6, 587–598, doi: 10.1111/gcbb.12068 Balancing bioenergy and biosecurity policies: estimating current and future climate suitability patterns for a bioenergy crop D. J. KRITICOS*,† ,H.T.MURPHY‡ , T. JOVANOVIC*, J. TAYLOR§ ,A.HERR*,J.RAISON* and D. O’CONNELL* *CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia, †EH Graham Centre for Agricultural Innovation, Charles Sturt University, Wagga Wagga, NSW, Australia, ‡CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, PO Box 780, Atherton, QLD, Australia, §CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Box 312, Clayton South, VIC, 3169, Australia Abstract In an apparent paradox, bioenergy crops offer potential benefits to a world adjusting to the challenges of climate change and declining fossil fuel stocks, as well as potential ecological and economic threats resulting from bio- logical invasions. In considering this paradox it is important to understand that benefits and threats may not always be apparent in equal measure throughout the potential range of each candidate biofuel species. In some environments, a species could potentially produce valuable biological materials without posing a significant invasion threat. In this study, we develop a bioclimatic niche model for a candidate biofuel crop, Millettia pinnat- a, and apply the model to different climatic and irrigation scenarios to estimate the current and future patterns of climate suitability for its growth and naturalization. We use Australia as a case study for interpreting the niche model in terms that may be informative for both biofuels proponents and biosecurity regulators to plan management programmes that reflect the invasive potential in different areas. The model suggests that suitable growing conditions for M.
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