Global Political

“Political demography takes a major step forward in this volume, whose global scope is unprecedented. The relationships among population change, immigra- tion, ethnicity and regimes, political conflict, and revolutions are delineated with great skill and insight. This book is filled with essential findings for all scholars of politics and development.” —Jack A. Goldstone, Schar School of Policy and Government, George Mason University, USA

“The uneven pace of the around the world is altering the age and ethnic composition of countries. This is recasting the domestic and international politics of the twenty-first century. Covering every continent, Global Political Demography performs the vital task of bringing together the world’s leading scholars of the politics of population change. They help us make sense of the trends that are shaking the foundations of our modern world.” —, Birkbeck College, University of London, UK

“This book is a foundational contribution to establish ‘political demography’. The individual chapters address key areas of demographic change – including , migration and population aging – and ask how these processes impact politics, public policies, political behaviour, political institutions and the political order of a country. The book overcomes the narrow view of prior research by adopting a truly global perspective. It is not only a must-read for scholars and students in the field, but of interest to a wider audience interested in the global challenges posed by demographic change.” —Michaela Kreyenfeld, Hertie School, Berlin, Germany

“This state-of-the-art and original book is much-needed at the present time of global economic uncertainties. The focus on changes in demographic structure and composition as a driving force shaping political and policy landscapes and the feedback loop offer a new perspective. Its comprehensive coverage of low-, middle- and high-income countries in all world regions and in-depth analysis of population heterogeneity provide a holistic picture of the relationship between population dynamics and politics for the very first time.” —Raya Muttarak, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna) “This book is a tour de force. Achim Goerres and Pieter Vanhuysse provide the first comprehensive treatment of the interplay of demography and politics around the world over half a century. Leading researchers from each continent analyze the many political causes and consequences of population change, from silver populations to migration flows, from youth bulges to religions. This is a must-read for everyone concerned about global demographic shifts and the big forces shaping our common future.” —Tomáš Sobotka, Vienna Institute of Demography, and Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, Austria Achim Goerres · Pieter Vanhuysse Editors Global Political Demography

The Politics of Population Change Editors Achim Goerres Pieter Vanhuysse Institut für Politikwissenschaft Department of Political Science, Danish Universität Duisburg-Essen Institute for Advanced Study (DIAS), Duisburg and Interdisciplinary Centre on Nordrhein-Westfalen, Germany Population Dynamics (CPOP-SAMF) University of Southern Denmark Odense, Denmark

ISBN 978-3-030-73064-2 ISBN 978-3-030-73065-9 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-73065-9

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2021. This book is an open access publication. Open Access This book is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution- NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/ 4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and repro- duction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this book are included in the book’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the book’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. This work is subject to copyright. All commercial rights are reserved by the author(s), whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adap- tation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. Regarding these commercial rights a non-exclusive license has been granted to the publisher. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

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This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland For Hannah, Anna, Alexander, Jana and Andrea and in memory of Dennis C. Spies (1981–2021) Preface

This book is about the politics and public policies of population change across the globe. It is our attempt to make interdisciplinary progress at the intersection of demography and political science in order to fully understand the breadth and pace of demographic change worldwide. This book grew out of an idea that we tossed around at a work- shop in Gothenburg in autumn 2015. In 2012, we had edited a volume on the comparative politics of in advanced industrial democracies in an attempt to make some advances in the fields of polit- ical sociology, comparative politics, comparative political economy and welfare state research (“Ageing Populations in Post-industrial Democ- racies: Comparative Studies of Policies and Politics, Routledge”, Rout- ledge). In late summer 2016, we met in Odense to sketch out the first ideas for this book and identify suitable experts from across the globe. Since we had been working mostly on the OECD world ourselves, this was a steep learning experience. In 2017, we approached the Käte Hamburger Centre for Global Cooperation Research at the University of Duisburg-Essen with the question whether they could fund an inter- national conference to bring together such a global group of experts. Luckily, they were able to do so, leading to a conference that took place on 23–24 November 2017 in Duisburg. We would like to thank the Centre’s directors Tobias Debiel, Dirk Messner and Sigrid Quack for supporting this project, and Matthias Schuler for administrative help during the workshop.

vii viii PREFACE

The book is accessible open access. The work is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 Inter- national License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as appropriate credit is given to the original author(s) and the source, a link is provided to the Creative Commons license, and any changes made are indicated. We would like to thank the university library of Duisburg-Essen and the Inter- disciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics at the Faculty of Business and Social Sciences (CPOP at SAMF) of the University of Southern Denmark for each covering half of the expenses. We also thank the University of Duisburg-Essen for providing generous seed money to Achim Goerres that allowed us to pay for the numerous research assistant hours. For this volume, we wanted to adopt a wide scope across three dimen- sions. First, we wanted not only to include population ageing as the domi- nant driver of change in the age composition of modern societies, but to also add an in-depth analysis of migration as a fundamental factor of population change. Second, we wanted to expand the perspective beyond advanced industrial democracies to cover all major macro-regions of the world in order to develop a fuller picture of the dynamics of the politics of population change. Third, we wanted to broaden the time period under consideration, from 1990 to today and into the near future, up to 2040. We thank the contributors to this edited volume for the quality of their work and their patience. It was a demanding task for us to work with a largely virtual community of colleagues. Our contributing authors are currently based in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China (Hongkong), Denmark, Germany, India, Indonesia, Norway, Poland, Russia, Spain, Uganda, the UK and the US. The book also pushed us to widen our mental models and theoretical lenses by its truly interdisciplinary nature, with specialists from area studies, demography, economics, geography, political science, political economy and sociology. We learnt a lot about various disciplinary approaches and tried to become better social scientists on this journey. A special thanks goes to Rich Cincotta among our contributors, who diligently and reliably supported us with the production of country- specific age pyramids in addition to co-authoring an excellent chapter. We would like to thank the following truly international group of scholars for providing feedback to one or several chapters: Anna Boucher, Philippe Fargues, Robert Ivan Gal, Hayfat Hamidou-Schmidt, Thomas Heberer, PREFACE ix

Takeshi Hieda, Eric Kaufmann, Achim Kemmerling, Daniel Lambach, Paul Marx, Attila Melegh, Miquel Pellicer, Micheline van Riemsdijk, John Sidel, Tomáš Sobotka and Marianne Ulriksen. We thank Jonas Elis and Sebastian Krause for managing this book’s companion, the Global Political Demography Database. Further thanks go to Erik Wenker at the University of Duisburg-Essen, Frederik Pfeiffer and Klaus Petersen at CPOP-SAMF, University of Southern Denmark, and Ambra Finotello at Palgrave Macmillan. A special thanks goes to Josra Riecke who acted as our book manager for over a year to deal with the authors, reviewers, publishers and two editors who were at times “snowed under” with various extraordinary tasks, both professionally and privately. We have both contributed equally to this volume, just as we did back in 2012. We continue rotating the order of names in the edited volume and in the introductory chapters, meaning that this edited volume is Goerres/Vanhuysse (eds.) whereas the first was Vanhuysse/Goerres (eds.) and vice versa for the introductory chapters. The book is accompanied by a project homepage at the Open Science Framework. The current URL is https://osf.io/xcvdh/. The project homepage contains the Global Political Demography Database with documentation that is free to access:

Goerres, Achim, Vanhuysse, Pieter, Krause, Sebastian and Elis, Jonas (2020): Global Political Demography Database, current version 1.4.1, November 2020.

The online project page also contains the online appendix with detailed material for some of the chapters. As we draw this project to a close in December 2020, the world is experiencing the COVID-19 pandemic that started in 2019 and that put many lives upside down in 2020 all over the world. Whereas this book does not analyse the impact of COVID-19 from the point of view of political demography, we experienced vividly how this global pandemic impacted on our global group of contributors in remarkably similar ways. This book is about the macro-politics of population change. We dedi- cate it to those with whom we actively experience population dynamics at the micro-level every day: x PREFACE

Our children, Hannah, Anna, and Alexander, Our partner and wife, Jana and Andrea

Finally, we would like to honour our colleague and friend Dennis C. Spies, Professor of Political Economy at Heinrich-Heine University Düsseldorf, who passed away unexpectedly much too young (1981– 2021).

Odense, Denmark Pieter Vanhuysse Duisburg, Germany Achim Goerres December 2020 About This Book

This ambitious open-access book draws the big picture of how popu- lation change interplays with politics across the world from 1990 to 2040. Leading social scientists from a wide range of disciplines discuss, for the first time, all major political and policy aspects of population change as they play out differently in each major world region: North and South America; sub-Saharan Africa and the MENA region; Western and East Central Europe; Russia, Belarus and Ukraine; East Asia; Southeast Asia; subcontinental India, Pakistan and Bangladesh; Australia and New Zealand. These macro-regional analyses are completed by cross-cutting global analyses of migration, religion and poverty, and age profiles and intra-state conflicts. From all angles, the book shows how strongly contex- tualized the political management and the political consequences of popu- lation change are. While long-term population ageing and short-term migration fluctuations present structural conditions, political actors play a key role in (mis-)managing, manipulating and (under-)planning popu- lation change, which in turn determines how citizens in different groups react.

xi Contents

1 Introduction: Political Demography as an Analytical Window on Our World 1 Pieter Vanhuysse and Achim Goerres 2 Migration in Political Demography: A Review of Evidence 29 Ronald Skeldon 3 Youthful Age Structures and the Risks of Revolutionary and Separatist Conflicts 57 Richard Cincotta and Hannes Weber 4 Poverty and Religious Affiliation Worldwide, 1970–2010 93 Vegard Skirbekk and Jose Navarro 5 Ageing China: The People’s Republic of China, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan 117 Nele Noesselt 6 Demographic Politics in Asia’s Super-Size Democracies: India, Bangladesh and Pakistan 141 K. S. James and Arun Balachandran

xiii xiv CONTENTS

7 Getting Old Before Getting Rich (and not Fully Realizing It): Premature Ageing and the Demographic Momentum in Southeast Asia 167 Patrick Ziegenhain 8 The Oldest Societies in Asia: The Politics of Ageing in South Korea and Japan 195 Axel Klein and Hannes Mosler 9 Demographic Change and Political Order in Sub-Saharan Africa: How Côte d’Ivoire and Uganda Deal with Youth Bulge and Politicized Migration 219 Christof Hartmann and Catherine Promise Biira 10 The Maghreb Region: Waithood, the Myth of Youth Bulges and the Reality of Frustrated Aspirations 247 Alessandra Bonci and Francesco Cavatorta 11 It Is All About the Numbers of Immigrants: Population and Politics in Australia and New Zealand 275 Peter McDonald and Andrew Markus 12 The Politics of Demography in Unequal Societies: Argentina and Brazil Compared 303 Diego Wachs, Vitor Goncalves Cavalcanti, and Clara Galeazzi 13 Intergenerational Controversy and Cultural Clashes: Political Consequences of Demographic Change in the US and Canada Since 1990 325 Jennifer D. Sciubba 14 Population Ageing, Immigration and the Welfare State: The Political Demography in Western Europe 351 Elias Naumann and Moritz Hess 15 The Political Demography of Missed Opportunity: Populations and Policies in a Younger but Faster-Ageing East Central Europe, 1990–2040 373 Pieter Vanhuysse and Jolanta Perek-Białas CONTENTS xv

16 Combating Low and Low Fertility in Tumultuous Political Times: A Comparison of the Ukraine, Russia and Belarus 401 Rza Kazimov and Sergei V. Zakharov 17 Epilogue: Global Political Demography—A Depressing Outlook? 429 Stuart A. Gietel-Basten

Index 451 Contributors

Arun Balachandran Department of Sociology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA Catherine Promise Biira Institute for Regional Integration and Devel- opment, Catholic University of Eastern Africa, Nairobi, Kenya Alessandra Bonci Laval University, Québec, Canada Francesco Cavatorta Laval University, Québec, Canada Richard Cincotta The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington, DC, USA Clara Galeazzi Centre for Environment, Energy and Natural Resource Governance (CEENRG) at the Land Economy Department, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK Stuart A. Gietel-Basten The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Sai Kung, Hong Kong SAR Achim Goerres Department of Political Science, University of Duisburg-Essen, Duisburg, Germany Vitor Goncalves Cavalcanti World Bank, Washington, DC, USA Christof Hartmann Department of Political Science, University of Duisburg-Essen, Duisburg, Germany

xvii xviii CONTRIBUTORS

Moritz Hess Niederrhein University of Applied Sciences, Mönchenglad- bach, Germany K. S. James International Institute for Population Sciences, Deemed University, Mumbai, India Rza Kazimov Berlin Graduate School of Social Sciences, Berlin, Germany Axel Klein Department of Political Science and the Institute of East Asian Studies, University of Duisburg-Essen, Duisburg, Germany Andrew Markus Emeritus Professor, School of Philosophical, Historical and International Studies, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Fellow of the Academy of the Social Sciences, Melbourne, VIC, Australia Peter McDonald Emeritus Professor of Demography, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia; University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia Hannes Mosler Department of Political Science and the Institute of East Asian Studies, University of Duisburg-Essen, Duisburg, Germany Elias Naumann University of Mannheim, Mannheim, Germany Jose Navarro Columbia University, New York, NY, USA Nele Noesselt Department of Political Science, Institute of East Asian Studies, University of Duisburg-Essen, Duisburg, Germany Jolanta Perek-Białas Institute of Sociology and Center for Evaluation and Analysis of Public Policies, Jagiellonian University, Cracow and Warsaw School of Economics, Cracow, Poland Jennifer D. Sciubba Rhodes College, Memphis, TN, USA Ronald Skeldon Emeritus Professor, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK; Honorary Professor, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands Vegard Skirbekk Columbia University, New York, NY, USA Pieter Vanhuysse Department of Political Science, Danish Institute for Advanced Study (DIAS), and Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics (CPOP-SAMF), University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark CONTRIBUTORS xix

Diego Wachs Care Policy and Evaluation Centre, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK Hannes Weber University of Mannheim, Mannheim, Germany Sergei V. Zakharov Institute of Demography (HSE IDEM), National Research University, Moscow, Russia Patrick Ziegenhain President University, Cikarang, Indonesia List of Figures

Chapter 1 Fig. 1 Overview of countries covered in the book and their chapter 4 Fig. 2 Estimated turnout rates in the last national election in or just before 2015 for young people (aged 18–29) and older people (60+) 11 Fig. 3 The curvilinear relationship between relative elderly power (logged) and GDP per capita (around 2015) 14

Chapter 3 Fig. 1 Population pyramids. Examples of the (U.S.) NIC’s four age-structural phases (NIC, 2017) 62 Fig. 2 The functional forms and 0.95 confidence intervals for three mutually exclusive categories of 4-year conflict history: RAbs (0 conflict years over the past 4 most recent years), RImt (1 or 2 conflict years) and RPer (3 or 4 conflict years) 74 Fig. 3 The functional forms and 0.95 confidence intervals for three mutually exclusive categories of 4-year conflict history: SAbs (0 conflict years over the past 4 most recent years), SImt (1 or 2 conflict years) and SPer (3 or 4 conflict years) 76 Fig. 4 The proportion of states engaged in (a) revolutionary conflict and (b) separatist conflict in each of four age-structural categories 79

xxi xxii LIST OF FIGURES

Fig. 5 The trend in the number of states engaged in revolutionary conflict (but not intrastate separatist conflict) over seven five-year periods (1976–1980 to 2011–2015) 87

Chapter 4 Fig. 1 a, b Absolute poverty by religion, 1970 and 2010 102 Fig. 2 a, b Absolute poverty by religion in 1970 and 2010 (in %) 104 Fig. 3 Relative Poverty by religion in 2010 105 Fig. 4 Relative poverty by religion in 2010 (in %) 105

Chapter 5 Fig. 1 Population pyramids of China, Taiwan, Hong Kong SAR, Macao SAR 127

Chapter 6 Fig. 1 Age-sex for Bangladesh, India and Pakistan for 1990, 2020 and 2040 145 Fig. 2 Total Fertility Rate (TFR) across Indian States, 2016 151

Chapter 7 Fig. 1 Population Pyramids, 1990, 2020, 2040 173

Chapter 8 Fig. 1 Population pyramids, Japan and Korea 198 Fig. 2 Population by age (persons) 200 Fig. 3 Voter turnout by age in the Republic of Korea (presidential elections, in percentage) 201 Fig. 4 Voter turnout by age in Japan (general elections, in percentage) 201

Chapter 9 Fig. 1 Demographic trends in Côte d’Ivoire and Uganda 222 Fig. 2 Annual new job requirements for Uganda 2007–2037 227 Fig. 3 Political interest among young people in Africa (Based on Lekalake and Gyimah-Boadi [2016]) 231 Fig. 4 Age-specific voting patterns in Côte d’Ivoire 232 Fig. 5 Age-specific voting patterns in Uganda 233 LIST OF FIGURES xxiii

Chapter 10 Fig. 1 Average annual rate of population change in comparison 250 Fig. 2 Population pyramids for Morocco and Tunisia 252

Chapter 11 Fig. 1 Age pyramids in 1990–2020–2040 in Australia and New Zealand 276 Fig. 2 Net International Migration to Australia, 1947–2016, numbers 280

Chapter 12 Fig. 1 Population pyramids in Argentina and Brazil 304 Fig. 2 Immigration to Argentina and Brazil in 2015, top origin countries. In thousands 307 Fig. 3 Share of total population residing in urban areas 310 Fig. 4 Wealth and land distribution in Latin America 313 Fig. 5 Old-age dependency ratio 315

Chapter 13 Fig. 1 Population pyramids for US and Canada 328

Chapter 14 Fig. 1 Demography in Germany, Italy and Sweden 1990, 2020 and 2040 355

Chapter 15 Fig. 1 Population pyramids for Hungary, Latvia, Poland and Romania for 1990, 2020 and 2040 375

Chapter 16 Fig. 1 Population Pyramids of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine 1990–2020–2050 410 Fig. 2 Key Demographic Indicators 411 List of Tables

Chapter 1 Table 1 Relative elderly power across the world in 2015 13

Chapter 3 Table 1 Panel models of revolutionary conflict, 1975–2010 66 Table 2 Panel models of separatist (territorial) conflict, 1975–2010 68 Table 3 Parameter values for revolutionary conflict forecasts (in Table 4, Fig. 5) 80 Table 4 Five-year expected and observed regional counts of states in revolutionary conflict 83

Chapter 4 Table 1 India and China, population living in absolute poverty by religion, 2010 106

Chapter 5 Table 1 Hong Kong: demographic projections 124

Chapter 6 Table 1 Population size and percentage to the in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan, 2015–2040 144

xxv xxvi LIST OF TABLES

Table 2 Median age of Bangladesh, India and Pakistan in 1990, 2015 and 2040 146 Table 3 Share of population in major religious groups in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan, 2015 149

Chapter 7 Table 1 Demographic data 169

Chapter 8 Table 1 Selected demographic data on Japan and Korea (2019) 196

Chapter 9 Table 1 Key demographic trends in Côte d’Ivoire and Uganda 224 Table 2 International migration patterns in Côte d’Ivoire and Uganda 225

Chapter 10 Table 1 Demographic shift on different socio-economic indicators 253

Chapter 11 Table 1 ‘What do you think of the number of immigrants accepted into Australia?’ 2012–2018 292

Chapter 12 Table 1 Main demographic indicators for Argentina and Brazil in 2015 305

Chapter 13 Table 1 Key demographic statistics, US and Canada, 1990–2040 329 Table 2 US election data by race (select presidential election years) 335 Table 3 US election data by age (select presidential election years) 336

Chapter 14 Table 1 Key population indicators of Sweden, Germany and Italy 353 LIST OF TABLES xxvii

Chapter 15 Table 1 Overview of the demographic situation in selected countries of East Central Europe in 1990/1995, 2015 and with projections for 2040 377