Global Political Demography “Political demography takes a major step forward in this volume, whose global scope is unprecedented. The relationships among population change, immigra- tion, ethnicity and regimes, political conflict, and revolutions are delineated with great skill and insight. This book is filled with essential findings for all scholars of politics and development.” —Jack A. Goldstone, Schar School of Policy and Government, George Mason University, USA “The uneven pace of the demographic transition around the world is altering the age and ethnic composition of countries. This is recasting the domestic and international politics of the twenty-first century. Covering every continent, Global Political Demography performs the vital task of bringing together the world’s leading scholars of the politics of population change. They help us make sense of the trends that are shaking the foundations of our modern world.” —Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck College, University of London, UK “This book is a foundational contribution to establish ‘political demography’. The individual chapters address key areas of demographic change – including urbanization, migration and population aging – and ask how these processes impact politics, public policies, political behaviour, political institutions and the political order of a country. The book overcomes the narrow view of prior research by adopting a truly global perspective. It is not only a must-read for scholars and students in the field, but of interest to a wider audience interested in the global challenges posed by demographic change.” —Michaela Kreyenfeld, Hertie School, Berlin, Germany “This state-of-the-art and original book is much-needed at the present time of global economic uncertainties. The focus on changes in demographic structure and composition as a driving force shaping political and policy landscapes and the feedback loop offer a new perspective. Its comprehensive coverage of low-, middle- and high-income countries in all world regions and in-depth analysis of population heterogeneity provide a holistic picture of the relationship between population dynamics and politics for the very first time.” —Raya Muttarak, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna) “This book is a tour de force. Achim Goerres and Pieter Vanhuysse provide the first comprehensive treatment of the interplay of demography and politics around the world over half a century. Leading researchers from each continent analyze the many political causes and consequences of population change, from silver populations to migration flows, from youth bulges to religions. This is a must-read for everyone concerned about global demographic shifts and the big forces shaping our common future.” —Tomáš Sobotka, Vienna Institute of Demography, and Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, Austria Achim Goerres · Pieter Vanhuysse Editors Global Political Demography The Politics of Population Change Editors Achim Goerres Pieter Vanhuysse Institut für Politikwissenschaft Department of Political Science, Danish Universität Duisburg-Essen Institute for Advanced Study (DIAS), Duisburg and Interdisciplinary Centre on Nordrhein-Westfalen, Germany Population Dynamics (CPOP-SAMF) University of Southern Denmark Odense, Denmark ISBN 978-3-030-73064-2 ISBN 978-3-030-73065-9 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-73065-9 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2021. This book is an open access publication. Open Access This book is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution- NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/ 4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and repro- duction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this book are included in the book’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the book’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. This work is subject to copyright. All commercial rights are reserved by the author(s), whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adap- tation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. Regarding these commercial rights a non-exclusive license has been granted to the publisher. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Cover illustration: Marina Lohrbach_shutterstock.com This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland For Hannah, Anna, Alexander, Jana and Andrea and in memory of Dennis C. Spies (1981–2021) Preface This book is about the politics and public policies of population change across the globe. It is our attempt to make interdisciplinary progress at the intersection of demography and political science in order to fully understand the breadth and pace of demographic change worldwide. This book grew out of an idea that we tossed around at a work- shop in Gothenburg in autumn 2015. In 2012, we had edited a volume on the comparative politics of population ageing in advanced industrial democracies in an attempt to make some advances in the fields of polit- ical sociology, comparative politics, comparative political economy and welfare state research (“Ageing Populations in Post-industrial Democ- racies: Comparative Studies of Policies and Politics, Routledge”, Rout- ledge). In late summer 2016, we met in Odense to sketch out the first ideas for this book and identify suitable experts from across the globe. Since we had been working mostly on the OECD world ourselves, this was a steep learning experience. In 2017, we approached the Käte Hamburger Centre for Global Cooperation Research at the University of Duisburg-Essen with the question whether they could fund an inter- national conference to bring together such a global group of experts. Luckily, they were able to do so, leading to a conference that took place on 23–24 November 2017 in Duisburg. We would like to thank the Centre’s directors Tobias Debiel, Dirk Messner and Sigrid Quack for supporting this project, and Matthias Schuler for administrative help during the workshop. vii viii PREFACE The book is accessible open access. The work is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 Inter- national License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as appropriate credit is given to the original author(s) and the source, a link is provided to the Creative Commons license, and any changes made are indicated. We would like to thank the university library of Duisburg-Essen and the Inter- disciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics at the Faculty of Business and Social Sciences (CPOP at SAMF) of the University of Southern Denmark for each covering half of the expenses. We also thank the University of Duisburg-Essen for providing generous seed money to Achim Goerres that allowed us to pay for the numerous research assistant hours. For this volume, we wanted to adopt a wide scope across three dimen- sions. First, we wanted not only to include population ageing as the domi- nant driver of change in the age composition of modern societies, but to also add an in-depth analysis of migration as a fundamental factor of population change. Second, we wanted to expand the perspective beyond advanced industrial democracies to cover all major macro-regions of the world in order to develop a fuller picture of the dynamics of the politics of population change. Third, we wanted to broaden the time period under consideration, from 1990 to today and into the near future, up to 2040. We thank the contributors to this edited volume for the quality of their work and their patience. It was a demanding task for us to work with a largely virtual community of colleagues. Our contributing authors are currently based in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China (Hongkong), Denmark, Germany, India, Indonesia, Norway, Poland, Russia, Spain, Uganda, the UK and